Public Opinion Poll No (92)

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between May 26 and June 1, 2024. The period prior to the poll witnessed the continuation and expansion of the war on the Gaza Strip, to include the ground offensive in the outskirts of the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, the occupation of the Rafah crossing with Egypt, the control of the Salah al-Din Corridor, also known as Philadelphia Corridor, and the return of the Israeli army to occupy Jabalia and other areas in the northern Gaza Strip. These developments led to an escalation of humanitarian suffering, and the displacement of about one million displaced and non-displaced people from the Rafah area and shelters to the Al-Mawasi area and other areas from which the Israeli army withdrew in the Khan Younis area, Deir al-Balah and other areas in the central Gaza Strip. Famine has also intensified in the northern Gaza Strip and other areas with little aid arriving those areas due to the closure of the Rafah crossing with Egypt after it was occupied by the Israeli army and the inability of the US-constructed floating dock in the north of the Strip, which became inactive due to storms. The Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) announced that he has asked the court to issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Galant, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, head of a movement in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar, and the commander of its military wing, Muhammad Deif. Efforts to reach a ceasefire failed during this period, despite the continuation of these efforts led by Qatar, Egypt and the United States, and despite Hamas' acceptance, in early May, of a ceasefire agreement presented to it by Egyptian mediators.

Talk of the “day after” continued with little progress due to the Israeli government's rejection of the idea. But talk of the need to reform and “revitalize” the PA led to the formation of a new Palestinian government, made up of professionals, headed by economist Muhammad Mustafa. Meanwhile, restrictions on the movement of Palestinians in the West Bank continued, and the entrances to most towns and villages continued to be closed by the Israeli army in order to prevent residents from accessing main roads. Settler violence against Palestinian towns and villages in unprotected areas in areas B and C of the West Bank also continued.

To ensure the safety of our data collectors in the Gaza Strip, interviews were conducted with residents in specific areas where no active combat was present. The areas covered included parts of the Rafah and Khan Younis areas and the central Gaza Strip and all shelters therein, but not the northern besieged enclave and other areas of combat in the central Gaza Strip and in the eastern area of Rafah. This poll covers all of the above issues as well as other issues such as the domestic conditions and the domestic balance of power, the peace process and the alternative options available to the Palestinians in light of the current stalemate in that process.

The sample size of this poll was 1570 adults, of whom 760 were interviewed face-to-face in the West Bank (in 76 residential locations) and 750 in the Gaza Strip (in 75 locations). Due to the uncertainty about the exact population size and distribution at that moment in the Gaza Strip, we almost doubled the sample size in that area in order to reduce the margin of error. The total sample was reweighted to reflect the actual relative size of the population in the two Palestinian areas. Thus, the sample used is representative of the entire populations of the two regions. The margin of error stands at +/-3%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel. 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org

As in our previous two polls, three and six months ago, most of the questions in this poll, covering the second quarter of 2024, revolved around the October 7 attack and the subsequent Israel-Hamas war and the Israeli ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, the unprecedented human suffering of the Gaza Strip's residents, the atrocities of the war, the debate regarding the future of the Gaza Strip after the war, the possibility of fully invading Rafah and its repercussions, the decision of the Prosecutor General of the International Criminal Court (ICC) to request the arrest of leaders from Israel and Hamas, and public satisfaction with the performance of the various parties during the war. It should be noted that the samples in all three surveys does not include residents of the northern Gaza Strip who have remained in their homes since the beginning of the war due to the inability of our researchers to reach them and the lack of reliable data on their numbers and whereabouts in that area. It should also be noted that data from the current poll and the one immediately preceding it were collected during the ongoing fighting in the Gaza Strip, while the first poll was conducted during Israel's release of prisoners from the West Bank as part of the ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel. Apart from the ceasefire, there was no similar development taking place in the Gaza Strip at that time, i.e. the end of November 2023. The current poll, as in the previous two polls, covers the consequences of the war on the internal balance of power, support for the Palestinian leadership, Palestinian-Israeli relations, and the political process.

Findings indicate that about 80% of Gazans have lost a relative or that a relative has been injured in the current war. Nevertheless, two thirds of the public support the October 7 attack and nearly 80% believe it has placed the Palestinian issue at the center of global attention. Although an overwhelming majority does not believe that the ICC's decisions, if issued, would lead to the arrest of leaders in Israel or Hamas, a majority believes such decisions could contribute to speeding the process of ending the war. Findings also indicate that two thirds of the public expect Hamas to win the war on Gaza, but this percentage drops to only about half in the Gaza Strip. Also, only half of Gazans expects Hamas to return to controlling the Strip after the war. While the public supports the text of the declaration of the Arab summit in Manama, the vast majority disagrees with President Abbas's statements at that summit. Demand for Abbas' resignation is increasing and the findings show a rise in the popularity of Hamas and Marwan Barghouti. Findings also indicate a significant drop in in the Gaza Strip in the support for the two-state solution, although about half of the public believes that the Palestinian priority should be ending the occupation and establishing an independent Palestinian state. By contrast, support for armed struggle rises and support for dissolving the PA stands at more than 60%.

Humanitarian conditions: We start with the humanitarian and living conditions in the central and southern Gaza Strip. There has been a slight increase in the percentage of those who have lost relatives in this war to more than 60% and the results, as in the previous poll, indicate that about 80% of Gazans say that at least one of their family members has been killed or injured. The survey shows improvements in some indicators that have been monitored, such as the possibility of finding food, but the overwhelming majority still say they cannot reach those places where they can access food or water without a great difficulty or risk and that the shelters where they now live lack most of the basic needs. Thirty percent of Gazans say that the pier established by the US military on the coast of northern Gaza contributes to alleviating the suffering of the population through the delivery of humanitarian aid, but a majority says it does not. It should also be noted that there are significant complaints of discrimination on political grounds in the distribution of humanitarian aid, and that this percentage has increased to three-quarters in this survey.  Nearly two-thirds blame Israel for their suffering, and most others blame the United States. Putting the blame on Hamas in the Gaza Strip does not exceed 8%.

Support for the attack on October 7: While overall support for the October 7 Hamas offensive remains high, it has seen a four-percentage point decline compared to the previous poll, now at two-thirds. The decrease in this percentage came from the Gaza Strip, which saw a decrease of 14 percentage points. It is important to note that support for this attack, as we will see later, does not necessarily mean support for Hamas and does not mean support for any killings or atrocities committed against civilians. Support comes from another motive: findings show that more than 80% of Palestinians believe that the attack has put the Palestinian issue at the center of attention and eliminated years of neglect at the regional and international levels.

War crimes: As we found in the previous two polls, three and six months ago, almost all Palestinians believe that Israel is committing war crimes today while almost all believe that Hamas is not committing war crimes. Moreover, more than 90% believe that Hamas did not commit any atrocities against Israeli civilians on the seventh of October. Only one in ten Palestinians have seen videos showing atrocities committed by Hamas. The results show that those who watched the videos are about fifteen times more likely than those who did not to believe that Hamas fighters committed atrocities on October 7. It is useful in this context to mention that Al Jazeera is the most watched TV news station in Palestine as about 70% chose it as the most watched station during the past two months. Due to the current war conditions, West Bankers are more inclined than Gazans to watch Al Jazeera, with 83% of West Bankers saying it is their preferred channel.

The ICJ and the attack on Rafah: Three quarters of the public expect the ICJ to fail to stop a comprehensive ground invasion of Rafah because the US would protect Israel from the court's decisions. The percentage of Gazans who believe that an Israeli ground incursion into the entire city of Rafah will lead to a mass rush of people and displaced persons towards the border with Egypt is rising to about a third today, an increase of 6 points compared to our findings three months ago. It should be noted that Israeli tanks had entered the eastern area of Rafah and occupied the border with Egypt and the Salah al-Din, or Philadelphia, Corridor between Rafah and Egypt before data collection began for this poll.

The ICC: In light of the ICC prosecutor general's decision to request the court to issue arrest warrants for the Israeli prime minister Netanyahu and defense minister Galant, and three Hamas leaders, an overwhelming majority (71%) believes that the Israeli leaders will not actually be arrested and prosecuted. However, just under half believe that a court order for the arrest of Netanyahu and Galant could contribute to ending the war on the Gaza Strip. A similar percentage )71%) also believes that even if the ICC issues arrest warrants against them, Hamas leaders will not actually be arrested and tried even based on an ICC decision.  A majority in the West Bank and one-third of Gazans believe that the ICC decision against Hamas leaders will only increase the movement's popularity.

Ceasefire and who comes out the winner: Two-thirds said they support Hamas' decision, announced before the Israeli occupation of the Rafah crossing, to accept the ceasefire proposal submitted by Egypt. A majority expected Hamas and Israel to reach a ceasefire agreement in the next few days. As we did in the previous two polls, we asked in the current one who would emerge victorious in this war, and a two-thirds majority said they expected Hamas to win, an increase of 4 percentage points compared to our previous poll three months ago. It is worth noting however that fewer Gazans, at just 48%, now expect Hamas to win, a decrease of 8 percentage points compared to the results three months ago. It's also worth noting that while almost no one in the West Bank expects Israel to win the current war, a quarter of Gazans expects Israel to win.

Who will control Gaza after the war: Unlike the previous poll, a larger percentage of West Bankers says today, compared to three months ago, that the Gaza Strip will remain under Hamas’ control, while more Gazans now believe that Hamas will not be the ruling power in the future. In a similar question, which included speculation or estimates regarding the most likely scenario for the day after the war, the results were close to the first question, with half of Gazans saying that Hamas would return to control the Gaza Strip.  We asked about the public's opinion of these scenarios. A little more than half of Gazans said they would prefer the return of Hamas, compared to about two-thirds in the West Bank. More than a quarter of Gazans said they would prefer a new Palestinian Authority with an elected president, parliament and government, an option that was not available in our previous poll.

Deployment of Arab security forces in the Gaza Strip:  In December 2023, we asked the public about its view towards the deployment in the Gaza Strip of an Arab security force, from Egypt and Jordan. At the time, we found widespread opposition of 70% to the idea even if these forces were deployed to assist the Palestinian security forces. In this poll, opposition to such a security force rises to 75%.

The Manama Arab Summit and Abbas statement: We asked the public how satisfied it was with the statement of the recent Arab summit in Manama, which demanded an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, Israel's withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the convening of an international peace conference. The public was divided into two completely equal groups in terms of satisfaction or dissatisfaction. However, when asked whether or not they agree with Abbas' statement at that same Arab Summit in Manama in which he said that "the Hamas attack on the seventh of October provided Israel with more pretexts and justifications to attack the Gaza Strip," more than three quarters of the public said they disagreed with it. A larger percentage, about 80%, said they also disagreed with President Abbas' statement at the Summit that "Hamas's position rejecting ending the split and accepting international legitimacy served the Israeli plan to perpetuate the separation of the Gaza Strip from the West Bank."

Satisfaction with the performance of various parties during the war: As we did in the previous two polls, we asked in the current one about public satisfaction with the role played during the war by Palestinian, Arab/regional and international actors. The results show similar levels of satisfaction to the previous two polls, except for a significant rise in satisfaction with Iran.

	The percentage of satisfaction with Hamas and Yahya Sinwar remains very high. By contrast, satisfaction with Fatah and President Abbas continues to decline. The findings also suggests that the public is unwilling to give the new prime minister, Mohammad Mustafa, a chance to improve the government's performance, perhaps because he is close to President Abbas or perhaps the public does not know much about him.
	At the regional level, the highest satisfaction rate went to Yemen, Hezbollah, Qatar, and Iran, with Jordan and Egypt far behind them and in low rates. Evident in this poll is the increase in satisfaction with Iran, by an additional 19 percentage points compared to three months ago, probably due to Iran's direct missile attack on Israel in April.  But despite this spike in satisfaction with Iran's role in the war, it is odd that the majority of Palestinians see this attack as a show or a play rather than an Iranian determination to support the Palestinians. It is useful to see the division between the West Bank and Gaza Strip on this, with a majority of Gazans, versus only a third in the West Bank, saying that the Iranian missile attack was in support of the Palestinian people rather than theatrics.
	As for international non-regional actors, Russia had the highest satisfaction rating, slightly more than a quarter, followed by the United Nations, Germany, and the United States.
	In the context of the public's perception of the international repercussions triggered by the war on Gaza, the Palestinian public is optimistic that student protests at American universities will indeed bring about a change in US policy to make it more supportive of the Palestinian side or less supportive of the Israeli side, with about 70% believing this.

Support for Palestinian factions: When asked which political party or movement they prefer, the largest percentage (40%) said they prefer Hamas, followed by Fateh (20%), 8% chose third forces, and one third said they do not support any of them or have no opinion. These results mean that support for Hamas over the past three months has increased by 6 percentage points; support for Fatah has risen by 3 percentage points over the same period. In the same context, just over half believe that Hamas is the most deserving of representing and leading the Palestinian people today while only 16% believe that Fateh under the leadership of Abbas is the most deserving.

Support for Palestinian leaders: At the leadership level, the current poll shows that support for Marwan Barghouti continues to rise. In a presidential election between three candidates, incumbent President Mahmoud Abbas, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Marwan Barghouti, a Fatah leader currently in an Israeli jail, Barghouti wins a majority of participants. In a two-way competition between Barghouti and Haniyeh, the former wins the vote of about 60% of the participating voters. In an open-ended question, i.e. without predetermined responses, we asked the public to name their preferred candidate to be president of the PA after Abbas. Marwan Barghouti came first, with 29% of the public mentioning his name, followed by Ismail Haniyeh (14%), Mohammed Dahlan (8%), Yahya Sinwar (7%), and Mustafa Barghouti (2%).

Demand for the resignation of president Abbas: Satisfaction with Abbas' performance stands at 12% and dissatisfaction with 85%. About 90% want the president to resign. Today, 94% of West Bankers and 83% of Gazans demand the resignation of the president.

The new government of Mohammad Mustafa: An overwhelming majority (72%) believes that the new Palestinian government appointed by President Mahmoud Abbas and formed in March will not succeed in carrying out reforms that the previous government headed by Mohammad Shtayyeh was unable to carryout. In all of the reform items we asked about, we found that Gazans are more optimistic than West Bankers about the new government's ability to succeed, but a majority there also does not believe that the government will succeed in any of the reforms agenda items.

What the public wants from the PA leadership: We asked the public for the second time since October 7 what political measures the PA leadership should take immediately to help address the effects of the current war in the Gaza Strip. We presented the public with three sets of priorities: reconciliation and reunification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the formation of a new PA national unity government, and the leadership and management of humanitarian service delivery to the Gaza Strip. In the current poll, the percentage that chose the first priority, to achieve immediate reconciliation and unification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, has risen to more than half. The formation of a national unity government “to negotiate with Israel and the international community an end to the war and the rebuilding of the Gaza Strip in the future,” came second with one-third selecting it. The rest chose the third priority whereby the PA "leads a campaign to provide humanitarian services to the people of Gaza in cooperation with Egypt and the international community."

Support for the two-state solution: On Palestinian-Israeli relations, the results differ markedly from the results of the previous poll we published three months ago. Support for a two-state solution stands at just one-third and a majority says it supports armed struggle. In this regard, it is worth noting two findings: unlike the previous poll, in the current one, support for the two-state solution decreased significantly, and support for armed struggle increased. But the decline in support for a two-state solution came almost completely from the Gaza Strip, a dramatic drop of 30 percentage points. Despite this, nearly half, in both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, believe that the top most vital goal for the Palestinian people should be an “Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 borders and the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital.”

Support for Armed struggle: When considering three possible options for Palestinians to break the current deadlock in the political process to end the Israeli occupation, current findings point to an 8 percentage point rise in support for armed struggle to nearly one-third; and a 4-percentage point increase in support for non-violent resistance to nearly half.  More than 60% supported the dissolution of the Palestinian Authority, and more than a fifth supported abandoning the two-state solution and demanding one state for Palestinians and Israelis.  Moreover, we we presented the public with three possible means of ending Israeli occupation and establishing an independent Palestinian state and asked them to choose the most effective, a little over half chose "armed struggle"; and a quarter chose negotiations. These results indicate an 8-percentage point increase in support for armed struggle with support for negotiations remaining unchanged. The rise in support for armed struggle comes from the Gaza Strip, where this percentage rises by 17 points.

Saudi-Israeli normalization: The poll found significant opposition of three quarters of the public to Saudi-Israeli normalization, even if it is conditioned on Israel accepting a Palestinian state and taking concrete and irreversible steps toward that goal.

The fall of the Netanyahu government: The Palestinian public is optimistic that Netanyahu's government can fall soon and that quick elections will be held in Israel. However, even if this happens and a new Israeli government is established without Netanyahu, the majority does not believe that this government will be willing to negotiate with the Palestinian side to end the occupation on the basis of a two-state solution.

How to respond to settler violence: Finally, in light of the increase in settler deadly attacks against Palestinian towns and villages, we asked West Bankers about the most effective, and at the same time, most realistic, means of combating this violence: To protect their areas, a little less than half chose to form armed groups by residents of the targeted areas, a little more than a quarter chose to deploy Palestinian police forces in the targeted areas, and about a fifth said they supported the demand for the “Israeli army to take effective measures to prevent settler terrorism.” A small percentage supported the “formation of unarmed groups by the residents of the targeted areas.” These results show a limited increase of 4 percentage points in support for the formation of armed groups compared to results obtained three months ago.

• Two thirds think Hamas’ decision to launch the October 7 attack was correct; 82% think it has revived international attention to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and that it could lead to increased recognition of Palestinian statehood
• Sixty one percent of all Gazans say a member of their family has been killed during the current war.
• 63% blame Israel for the current suffering of Gazans while 22% place the blame on the US; only 8% blame Hamas
• 91% think Hamas did not commit atrocities on October 7 and 90% say they did not see videos showing acts committed by Hamas against Israeli civilians, such as the killing of women and children in their homes
• 71% believe that Netanyahu and Galant, will not be arrested and tried while 26% believe they will be; an identical percentage believes that Hamas leaders Haniyeh and Sinwar will not be arrested or tried
• 68% support Hamas' decision, announced in early May, to accept the ceasefire proposal
• 67% expect Hamas to win the war but Gazans are less optimistic with only 48%, expecting Hamas to win compared
• 61% say they prefer to have Hamas in control of the Gaza Strip after the war
• 76% disagree with Abbas statement at the Arab Summit in Manama that "Hamas' attack on October 7 provided Israel with more pretexts and justifications to attack the Gaza Strip;" 79% said they disagree with Abbas' statement at the same conference that "Hamas' position rejecting ending the split and accepting international legitimacy served the Israeli plan to consolidate the separation of the Gaza Strip from the West Bank"
• On PA priorities: 51% want the PA leadership to seek an immediate reconciliation and unification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip;”  33% want it to form a national unity government and 12%, want the PA to lead a campaign to provide humanitarian services to the people
• Satisfaction with Hamas' performance during the war stands at 75%, with Yahya Sinwar’s at 65%, with Fateh’s 24%, with President Abbas’ 10%, and new prime minister Muhammad Mustafa’s 9%
• For the Arab/regional actors, the highest satisfaction rate went to Yemen, at 80%, Hezbollah (57%), Qatar (55%), Iran (49%), Jordan (25%), and Egypt (18%)
• For the international actors, satisfaction with Russia stands at 26%, with United Nations  at 12%),  Germany at 6%, and the United States at 3% 

For the third time since October 7, we asked the respondents in this poll what they thought of Hamas’ decision to launch the October the 7^th offensive. Two thirds, compared to 71% in March 2024 and 72% in December 2023, say it was correct. As the figure below shows, the drop in supporting the decision came from the Gaza Strip. Current support in that area stands at 57% compared to 71% three months ago and 57% six months ago. The belief that Hamas' decision to launch the October 7 attack was correct increases among supporters of Hamas, third parties, those who do not support any of the well-known political forces, and among who say they would not participate in elections if they were held today (82%, 70%, 64%, and 62% respectively) compared to supporters of Fateh (48%).

Despite a four-percentage point drop in positively viewing the October 7 attach decision, the belief that the war on Gaza since that attack has "revived international attention to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and that it could lead to increased recognition of Palestinian statehood" rose by six percentage points to 82% while only 18% said that it did not do so.

64% of Gazans say they have enough food for a day or two; 36% say they don't have enough food for a day or two. These results show a significant improvement compared to the results we obtained three months ago when only 44% said they had enough food for a day or two. It is important to recall that the data collection did not include the northern area of the besieged Gaza Strip which, according to international reports, is currently witnessing a growing famine.

When they need food or water, only 26% of Gazans say they can reach a place where they can get help. 72% say they can but with great difficulty or risk, and 2% say they cannot. These results reflect a slight improvement compared to the situation three months ago.

Sixty one percent of all Gazans say a member of their family has been killed during the current war. In a separate question, 65% say a member of their family has been injured. When combining the two questions, the findings show that 78% say a member of their family has been either killed or injured; only 22% of Gazans say none of their family members have been killed or injured. Three months ago, 60% of Gazans said that one or more members of their family had been killed in the war and 78% were killed or injured during the current war.

We asked Gazans about the availability of essential needs like water, food, electricity, tents, blankets, clothes, medical care, and toilets.  The percentage of those who said "yes, available" ranged from 26% for tents to 44% for food. But a larger percentage said they could be obtained or accessed, but with great difficulty and risk. This was especially the case for medical care, tents, food, water and electricity. The results show that the seemingly unmet needs for most residents of the Gaza Strip are tents, clothes, blankets, medical care and electricity to charge telephones. These results constitute an improvement in most of these indicators compared to our findings three months ago.

We asked those in shelters about the identity of the organizers in charge. The majority of the respondents (53%) said it was UNRWA, 17% said it was government, 15% local Palestinian group, and 11% said other international organization.  These findings indicate a nine-percentage point decrease in the proportion of UNRWA-supervised shelters and an increase in the other percentages, essentially due to the fact that the number of built-up shelters, such as schools, has decreased while the number of tent gatherings has increased due to the recent displacement from Rafah to the Mawasi area.

We asked respondents to assess, based on their personal experience, the fairness of aid distribution to displaced residents currently in shelters. The vast majority (76%) said it was discriminatory while only 24% said it was fair. Three months ago, 70% said it was discriminatory.

We asked the public what they thought of the role of the temporary pier, established by the US military on the coast of northern Gaza, in delivering humanitarian aid. A majority of 78% said that this initiative does not contribute to alleviating the suffering of the population while 22% said it does. A larger percentage of Gazans, almost twice as much as we found in the West Bank, says that the American pier contributes to alleviating the suffering of the residents, 30% and 16% respectively.

A majority of 63% (compared to 64% three months ago) blames Israel for the current suffering of Gazans in the current war while 22% (compared to 20% three months ago) place the blame on the US; only 8% (compared to 7% three months ago) place the blame on Hamas, and only 4% (compared to 6% three months ago) blame the PA. It is worth noting that the percentage of Gazans who place the blame on Hamas stands today at 10% compared to 9% three months ago. 

As we found in the previous two polls, three and six months ago, almost all Palestinians (97% think Israel has committed war crimes during the current war. By contrast, only 9% (compared to 5% three months ago) think Hamas also committed such crimes; 2% think Israel has not committed such crimes and 88% think Hamas did not commit war crimes during the current war.

Ninety percent, compared to 80% three months ago, say they did not see videos, shown by international news outlets, showing acts committed by Hamas against Israeli civilians, such as the killing of women and children in their homes; only 9% (6% in the West Bank and 13% in the Gaza Strip) saw these videos.

When asked if Hamas did commit these atrocities that are seen in these videos, the overwhelming majority (91%) said no, it did not, and only 7% said it did. As shown in the figure below, the belief that Hamas fighters have committed atrocities against civilians is higher among those who did watch videos showing such atrocities (44%) compared to those who did not (3%).

Three quarters of the public expect the ICJ to fail to stop the Israeli offensive on Rafah because the US will protect Israel from the court's decisions while only 20% believe the ICJ will succeed in forcing Israel to stop its attack on Rafah.

We asked the public to speculate on the likely behavior of Rafah residents and displaced persons in the event of an Israeli ground tank invasion of that city: would these people in this case rush to safety on the Egyptian side? 31% of Gazans and 38% of West Bankers say that in that case residents and displaced people would rush towards the border and cross to safety in Egypt. Overall, 35%, compared to 40% three months ago, said they thought they would and 62% said they thought they wouldn't. It should be noted that Israeli tanks had entered the eastern area of Rafah and occupied the border crossing and the Salah al-Din or Philadelphia Corridor between Rafah and Egypt before data collection began.

In light of the ICC prosecutor's decision to request the court to issue arrest warrants against the Israeli prime minister and the defense minister, an overwhelming majority (71%) believes that the two, Netanyahu and Galant, will not actually be arrested and tried while 26% believe they will be.

Despite this, 45% believe that a court order for the arrest of Netanyahu and Galant would contribute to ending the war on the Gaza Strip while 52% believe it would not contribute to ending the war.

Moreover, an identical percentage (71%) believes that Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar will not actually be arrested and tried even if a decision is issued by the ICC at the request of the Prosecutor General of that court. By contrast, 23% believe they will be arrested if a decision is issued.

We asked about the impact of the ICC's decision to arrest and try Haniyeh and Sinwar on the level of popular support for Hamas in the Palestinian territories. Half of all Palestinians (59% in the West Bank and 34% in the Gaza Strip) believe it will increase the popularity of the movement while 15% believe it will decrease it and 33% believe it will have no impact on the movement's popularity.

68% support Hamas' decision, announced in early May just before Israel's occupation of the Rafah crossing, to accept the ceasefire proposal submitted by Egypt while 26% (33% in the Gaza Strip and 22% in the West Bank) oppose it. A majority of 58% expected Hamas and Israel to reach a ceasefire in the next few days while 39% did not expect it.

As we did in December 2023, we asked in the current poll who will emerge victorious in this war. A majority of 67% expects Hamas to win, compared to 64% three months ago and 70% six months ago. It is worth noting, as the figure below shows, that fewer Gazans today, at only 48%, expect Hamas to win compared to the results three and six months ago, when the percentages stood at 56% and 50%, respectively. By contrast, a larger percentage of West Bankers today, 79%, expect Hamas to win compared to the previous poll, at 69%. It's also worth noting that while almost no one in the West Bank expects Israel to win the current war, a quarter of Gazans expects Israel to win.

We asked the respondents to speculate about the party that will be in control of the Gaza Strip in the day after the end of the current war. A majority of 56% think it will be Hamas. However, unlike previous polls, there are significant differences between West Bankers and Gazans, with only 46% of Gazans saying Hamas will actually control that area, compared to a higher 62% in the West Bank, up from 59% in both areas three months ago. The current total represents a decrease of 3 percentage points compared to the results obtained three months ago. Only 4% believe that the Israeli army will be in control of the Gaza Strip. 11% believe that a new PA with an elected president, parliament, and government will be in control, 6% believe the current PA headed by Abbas will be in control, 7% believe the current PA but without Abbas will be in control, 2% choose one or more Arab states, and 2% choose the UN.

When asked who the public would prefer to control the Gaza Strip after the war, 61% (71% in the West Bank and 46% in the Gaza Strip) said it was Hamas, 16% chose a new Palestinian Authority with an elected president, parliament and government, 6% chose the current PA without Abbas, 6% also chose the return of the PA but under Abbas' control, 2% chose the UN, 1% selected one or more Arab states, and 1% selected the Israeli army. Three months ago, we asked an identical question, but with a slightly different set of options. At that time, 59% (64% in the West Bank and 52% in the Gaza Strip) preferred to see Hamas return to control the Gaza Strip after the war. Preference for Hamas to remain in control of the Gaza Strip after the war increases among the least educated (64%) compared to the most educated (56%), among supporters of Hamas, third parties, those who do not support any of the well-known political forces, and among those who say they would not participate in elections if they were held today (76%, 61%, 59%, and 50% respectively) compared to supporters of Fateh (44%).

In a similar question that included speculation or estimates regarding the most likely scenario for the day after the war, the results were almost identical to the question posed above with 57% (62% in the West Bank and 51% in the Gaza Strip) saying that Hamas would return to control the Gaza Strip.  21% expected a new PA to be established with an elected president, parliament, and government, 6% expected the return of the PA under Abbas, 2% expected Israel to form local authorities, 2% expected the Israeli army to take over, 2% expected tribes and families to take over, and 1% expected multiple armed groups to assume control in the Gaza Strip.

Here too we asked about preferences regarding these scenarios. Preference for the return of Hamas stands at 59% (64% in the West Bank and 52% in the Gaza Strip). Support for a new PA with an elected president, parliament, and government stands at 25%, and 6% support the return of the PA under Abbas.

In December 2023, we asked about the public's attitude towards the deployment of an Arab security force from Egypt and Jordan in the Gaza Strip. At that time, we found widespread opposition, standing at 70%, to the idea even if these forces were deployed to assist the Palestinian security forces. In this poll, opposition to such a security force rises to 75% and support stands at only 23%.

We asked the public how satisfied it was with the statement of the recent Arab summit in Manama, which demanded an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, Israel's withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the convening of an international peace conference. The public was divided into two equal parts: 48% (55% in the Gaza Strip and 44% in the West Bank) said they were satisfied with the statement and an identical percentage said they were dissatisfied.

We asked the public whether or not they agree with Abbas' statement at the Arab Summit in Manama that "Hamas' attack on October 7 provided Israel with more pretexts and justifications to attack the Gaza Strip." More than three quarters (76%) disagree and only 20% agree with Abbas’ statement.

A larger percentage (79%) said they disagree with Abbas' statement at the same conference that "Hamas' position rejecting ending the split and accepting international legitimacy served the Israeli plan to consolidate the separation of the Gaza Strip from the West Bank." Only 17% (29% in the Gaza Strip and 9% in the West Bank) agree with this statement. Opposition to Abbas' statements that Hamas' refusal to end the division served Israel's plan to consolidate the separation of the Gaza Strip from the West Bank increases among residents of the West Bank (86%) compared to the residents of the Gaza Strip (68%), among supporters of Hamas, those who would not participate in the elections if they were held today, those who do not intend to vote for any of the known parties and forces, and among supporters of third parties (90%, 80%, 77%, and 69% respectively) compared to supporters of Fateh (62%), and among those who lost relatives in the current war (73%) compared to those who had no relatives killed (61%).

We asked the public for the second time what political measures the PA leadership should take today to help address the effects of the current war in the Gaza Strip. We presented the public with three options: reconciliation, the formation of a national unity government, and the provision of humanitarian services. In the current poll, the percentage that opted for “ an immediate reconciliation and unification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip” has risen from 42% to 51% today. Second came “the formation of a national unity government whose mission is to negotiate with Israel and the international community an end to the war and the rebuilding of the Gaza Strip in the future,” with 33% opting for it, compared to 37% three months ago. The third option, chosen by only 12%, was for the PA to "lead a campaign to provide humanitarian services to the people of Gaza in cooperation with Egypt and the international community." It is worth noting that support in the Gaza Strip for reconciliation and reunification is higher than in the West Bank, 61% and 44% respectively, while support for the formation of a national unity government is higher in the West Bank than in the Gaza Strip, 36% and 29% respectively.

As we did in our previous poll, we asked in the current one about public satisfaction with the role played during the war by various Palestinian, Arab/regional, and international actors:

1. On Palestinian actors, satisfaction with Hamas' performance increases to 75% (82% in the West Bank and 64% in the Gaza Strip), followed by Yahya Sinwar (65%; 76% in the West Bank and 50% in the Gaza Strip), Fateh (24%; 25% in the West Bank and 23% in the Gaza Strip), President Abbas (10%; 8% in the West Bank and 14% in the Gaza Strip), and new prime minister Muhammad Mustafa (9%; 13% in the Gaza Strip and 6% in the West Bank).  Taken together, these findings, as indicated in the figure below, indicate an increase in satisfaction with Hamas and Sinwar compared to the situation three months ago. It also indicates that satisfaction with President Abbas and Fatah declined during the same period, and that the public is unwilling to give the new prime minister a chance to improve the performance of the government, perhaps because he is close to President Abbas or perhaps due to the fact that the public knows little about him.

2. For the Arab/regional actors, the highest satisfaction rate went to Yemen, as we found in our previous poll, where today it stands at 80% (86% in the West Bank and 71% in the Gaza Strip), followed by Hezbollah (57%), Qatar (55%), Iran (49%), Jordan (25%), and Egypt (18%). The following figure shows the distribution of satisfaction in the current and previous poll in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The 19-percentage point rise in satisfaction with Iran is tangible, almost certainly due to Iran's direct missile attack on Israel in April. The percentage of those who view the Iranian attack as supporting the Palestinian people increases among the Gaza Strip (52%) compared to the West Bank (33%), among the most educated (44%) compared to the least educated (39%), among supporters of Hamas who do not support any of the well-known parties and supporters of third parties (50%, 48%, and 47%) compared to supporters of Fateh and those who say they would not participate in elections if they were held today (33% and 30% respectively).

But despite this significant increase in satisfaction with Iran's role in the war, it is surprising that a majority of Palestinians (57%) sees the attack as a show or theatrics while only 41% believe it was an act of support for the Palestinian people. It is interesting to see the division between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip on this, with a majority of 52% of Gazans compared to only 33% of West Bankers saying it was in support of the Palestinian people.

3. For the international actors, Russia received the highest satisfaction (26%; 31% in the Gaza Strip and 23% in the West Bank), followed by the United Nations (12%), Germany (6%), and the United States (3%).  Compared to our previous poll, the current results show a 4-percentage point increase in satisfaction with Russia, with the increase coming from the Gaza Strip (15 points) while satisfaction with Russia in the West Bank increased by only two points. Satisfaction with the United Nations has doubled, while remaining small, and satisfaction with U.S. performance also remains small.

In the context of the public's perception of the international developments triggered by the war on Gaza, the majority is optimistic about the ability of student protests in American universities to bring about a change in US policy making it more supportive of the Palestinian side or less supportive of the Israeli side (69% believe this while only 29% do not.

• In presidential elections between Marwan Barghouti from Fatah, Mahmoud Abbas, also from Fatah, and Ismael Haniyeh from Hamas, vote for Marwan Barghouti would stand at 42%, followed by Haniyeh at 27%, and Abbas at 5%.
• If the two presidential candidates were Barghouti and Haniyeh, 44% would vote for Barghouti and 29% for Haniyeh.
• 89% want Abbas to resign while 10% want him to remain in office.
• When asked which political party they support, 40% selected Hamas, 20% Fatah, 8% selected other or third-parties, and 33% said none of them or did not know
• If a presidential competition is to take place between three, Marwan Barghouti from Fatah, Mahmoud Abbas, also from Fatah, and Ismael Haniyeh from Hamas, participation in the election would stand at 76%; vote for Marwan Barghouti would stand at 42%, the highest rate since September 2023, followed by Haniyeh at 27%, and Abbas at 5%. Among those who plan to vote, Barghouti receives 56%, Haniyeh 36%, and Abbas 6%. Three months ago, support for Barghouti among those planning to vote stood at 56% and Haniyeh at 32%, and Abbas at 11%.

However, if the new presidential elections were held with only two candidates, Mahmoud Abbas from Fatah and Ismail Haniyeh from Hamas, competing, the voter turnout would drop to 57%; vote for Haniyeh would stand at 43% and Abbas at 11%. Among those intending to vote, Haniyeh would receive 76% and Abbas 20%. Three months ago, the vote for Abbas among those intending to vote stood at 22% and vote for Haniyeh stood at 70%.

But if the two presidential candidates were Marwan Barghouti from Fatah and Haniyeh from Hamas, participation would rise to 74%; 44% would vote for Barghouti and 29% for Haniyeh. Among those intending to vote, Barghouti would receive 59% and Haniyeh 39%. These findings indicate a drop in the vote for Barghouti among those intending to vote by 3 points and a rise in the vote for Haniyeh by 2 points.  

In our annual open-ended question, i.e. without predetermined options, we asked the public to name their preferred candidate to be president of the PA after Abbas. Marwan Barghouti came first, with 27% of the public, followed by Ismail Haniyeh (14%), Mohammed Dahlan (8%), Yahya Sinwar (7%), and Mustafa Barghouti (2%).

In a closed question, with predetermined options, we asked the public to select the person they prefer to see as President Abbas's successor. The largest percentage (39%) said they prefer Marwan Barghouti; 23% preferred Ismail Haniyeh; 8% chose Yahya al Sinwar and Mohammad Dahlan; 2% chose Hussein al-Sheikh and Muhammad Shtayyeh; 1% preferred Khaled Meshaal, and 16% said they did not know or chose someone else. It is worth noting that the preference for Dahlan, al-Sheikh, and Shtayyeh, as in our previous survey, comes almost only from the Gaza Strip.

Level of satisfaction with the performance of president Abbas stands at 12% and dissatisfaction at 86%. Satisfaction with Abbas stands at 8% in the West Bank (compared to 8% three months ago) and 19% in the Gaza Strip (compared to 27% three months ago).  Nine months ago, before the October 7 war, satisfaction with Abbas stood at 22% and dissatisfaction at 76%.

89% want Abbas to resign while 10% want him to remain in office. Three months ago, 84% said they want Abbas to resign. Nine months ago, 78% wanted him to resign. Demand for Abbas' resignation today stands at 94% in the West Bank and 83% in the Gaza Strip.

When asked which political party or political trend they support, the largest percentage selected Hamas (40%), followed by Fatah (20%), while 8% selected other or third-party groups, and 33% said none of them or did not know. Three months ago, 34% supported Hamas and 17% selected Fatah. Nine months ago, before the current war, support for Hamas stood at 22% and support for Fatah stood at 26%. This means that support for Hamas during the past three months has witnessed an 6-point rise while support for Fatah rose 3 points during the same period. In the West Bank, support for Hamas today stands at 41% (compared to 35% three months ago), and for Fatah at 17% (compared to 12% three months ago). In the Gaza Strip, support for Hamas today stands at 38% (compared to 34% three months ago) and support for Fatah at 24% (compared to 25% three months ago).

However, if new parliamentary elections were held today with the participation of all political forces that participated in the 2006 elections, only 70% say they would participate in them, 32% would vote for Hamas, 17% for Fatah, 4% for third parties, and 16% remain undecided. Among those intending to vote, support for Hamas stands at 46%, Fatah 25%, third parties 6%, and the undecided at 25%. Compared to our findings three months ago, the current results among those intending to vote indicate a 1-point drop by for Hamas and a 3-point rise by Fatah. In the Gaza Strip, vote for Hamas among those intending to vote stands today at 44% (compared to 45% three months ago and 44% nine months ago) and vote for Fatah among those intending to vote stands today at 30% (compared to 26% three months ago and 32% nine months ago). In the West Bank, vote for Hamas among the voters stands today at 48% (compared to 48% three months ago and 24% nine months ago) and vote for Fatah among those intending to vote stands today at 21% (compared to 16% three months ago and 40% nine months ago).

51% (compared to 49% three months ago) believe that Hamas is the most deserving of representing and leading the Palestinian people today while 16% (compared to 17% three months ago) believe that Fateh under the leadership of Abbas is more deserving; 27% (compared to 29% three months ago) believe both are unworthy of representation and leadership. Nine months ago, 27% said Hamas is the most deserving, 24% said Fateh led by Abbas is the most deserving, and 44% said both are unworthy of representation and leadership. The percentage of those who believe that Hamas is more worthy of representing and leading the Palestinian people than Fateh under the leadership of President Abbas increases in the West Bank (59%) compared to the Gaza Strip (38%), among supporters of Hamas (88%) compared to those who do not prefer any of the well-known parties and movements, those who would not participate in elections if they were held today, supporters of third parties, and supporters of Fateh (43%, 39%, 35%, and 12% respectively), and among those who lost relatives in the current war (43%) compared to those for whom no one was killed relatives (32%).

• 72% believe that the new Palestinian government of Mohammad Mustafa will not succeed in carrying out reforms that the previous government headed by Mohammad Shtayyeh was unable to do
• 77% believe that the new government of Mustafa will not succeed in combating corruption and 67% say it will not succeed in reforming PA institutions
• Aljazeera is the most watched TV station in Palestine with 68% selecting it as the one they watched the most during the past two months; the second most popular TV station is Alaqsa (4%) followed by Palestine TV (3%), Palestine Today, Al-Arabiya, Ma’an and al Mayadeen (2% each).
• 69% believe that the PA has become a burden on the Palestinian people and only 27% believe it is an asset for the Palestinian people
• Only 13% of the West Bankers feel safe and secure while 87% feel unsafe and unsecure.

• An overwhelming majority (72%) believes that the new Palestinian government appointed by President Mahmoud Abbas and formed in March will not succeed in carrying out reforms that the previous government headed by Mohammad Shtayyeh was unable to do. By contrast, 21% believe it will succeed.
• We also asked the public about its expectations for the new government , such as carrying out specific reforms announced by this government or meeting the priorities of the public:

	77% believe that the new government will not succeed in combating corruption
	74% say it will not succeed in strengthening steadfastness in East Jerusalem
	73% believe that the government will not succeed in pushing for reconciliation and unification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip
	72% believe it will not succeed in improving economic conditions in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip
	71% believe it will not succeed in holding legislative and presidential elections
	71% say it will not succeed in providing relief for the Gaza Strip and reconstruction in the future
	71% say it will not succeed in ensuring financial stability
	71% say it will not succeed in empowering the judiciary and re-establishing the rule of law
	67% say it will not succeed in reforming PA institutions

It is important to note, as the following figure shows, that in all of these measures, Gazans are more optimistic than West Bankers about the new government's ability to succeed, but the majority there also does not believe that the government will succeed in any of these reforms.

Aljazeera is the most watched TV station in Palestine with 68% selecting it as the one they watched the most during the past two months. West Bankers are more likely than Gazans to watch Aljazeera, 82% and 46% respectively. The second most popular TV station is Alaqsa (4%) followed by Palestine TV (3%), Palestine Today, Al-Arabiya, Ma’an and al Mayadeen (2% each).

A majority of 69% (compared to 65% three months ago) believes that the PA has become a burden on the Palestinian people and only 27% (compared to 27% three months ago) believe it is an asset for the Palestinian people. Nine months ago, 62% said the PA is a burden and 35% said it was an achievement.

We asked the public in the West Bank about its personal and family safety and security. The findings show that only 13% feel safe and secure while 87% feel unsafe and unsecure. Three months ago, the perception of safety stood at 11% and nine months ago at 48%.

• 32% support and 65% oppose the idea of a two-state solution; 63% believe the two-state solution is no longer practical due to settlement expansion
• 63% support a return to confrontations and armed intifada; 62% support dissolving the PA; and 22% support abandoning the two-state solution and demanding one state for Palestinians and Israelis
• 54% think “armed struggle” is the most effective means of ending the Israeli occupation, 25% think negotiations is most effective, and 16% think popular non-violent resistance is the most effective
• Three quarters are opposed to a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal even if it is conditional on Israel accepting a Palestinian state and taking concrete and irreversible steps toward that goal.
• 63% are optimistic about the possibility of the fall of the Netanyahu government in the near future and the holding of quick elections in Israel
• In light of the increase in settler attacks against Palestinian towns and villages, 45% believe the formation of armed groups is the most effective means of confronting the settlers; 27% chose to deploy Palestinian police forces in the targeted areas  

32% support and 65% oppose the idea of a two-state solution, which was presented to the public without providing details of the solution. Three months ago, support for this solution in a similar question stood at 45% and six months ago support stood at 34%. In the current poll, support for this solution came from Gaza Strip, a 30-point increase while dropping only two points in the West Bank.

Support for the two-state solution is usually linked to public assessment of the feasibility of such a solution and the chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state. Today, 61% (compared to 63% three months ago) believe the two-state solution is no longer practical due to settlement expansion but 34% (compared to 37% three months ago) believe it is still practical. Moreover, 68% believe that the chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel in the next five years are slim or nonextant, and 31% believe the chances are medium or high.

When asked about its support and opposition to specific policy measures to break the stalemate: 66% supported joining more international organizations; 49% supported resort to unarmed popular resistance; 63% supported a return to confrontations and armed intifada; 62% supported dissolving the PA; and 22% supported abandoning” the two-state solution and demanding one state for Palestinians and Israelis. Three months /’, 55% supported a return to confrontations and armed intifada; 45% supported resort to unarmed popular resistance; 58% supported the dissolution of the PA; and 24% supported abandoning the two-state solution in favor of one state.

We offered the public three methods to end the Israeli occupation and establish an independent state and asked it to select the most effective. 54% (52% in the West Bank and 56% in the Gaza Strip) selected “armed struggle;” 25% (26% in the West Bank and 24% in the Gaza Strip) selected negotiations; and 16% (14% in the West Bank and 19% in the Gaza Strip) selected popular non-violent resistance. As shown in the figure below, these findings indicate an 8-point rise in support for armed struggle despite the fact that support for negotiations did not change; and a 2-point drop in support for non-violence.  The rise in support for armed struggle comes from the Gaza Strip, where it increases by 17 points.

The poll found significant opposition of three quarters to Saudi-Israeli normalization, even if it is conditional on Israel accepting a Palestinian state and taking concrete and irreversible steps toward that goal. Only 21% support this process.

The public is optimistic about the possibility of the fall of the Netanyahu government in the near future and the holding of quick elections in Israel: 63% believe this while 34% do not.  However, if this happens and a new Israeli government is established without Netanyahu, a majority of 54% does not believe that such a government would be willing to negotiate with the Palestinian side an end to the Israeli occupation on the basis of the two-state solution while 41% believe so.

In light of the increase in settler terrorist attacks against Palestinian towns and villages, we asked West Bankers what means are most effective in combating this terrorism that are also the most realistic and feasible. The largest percentage (45%) chose the formation of armed groups by residents of the targeted areas in order to protect their areas; 27% chose to deploy Palestinian police forces in the targeted areas; another 19% chose the demand that the Israeli army take measures to prevent settler terrorism; and only 6% chose the formation, by residents of the targeted areas, of unarmed groups to protect their areas. As the figure below indicates there is 4-point rise in support for the formation of armed groups when compared to the finding of March, a 4-point increase in the demand for protection by the PA police; and a 4-point drop in the demand for an Israeli army measures to stop the settlers.

• 47% believe that the first most vital Palestinian goal should be to end Israeli occupation in the areas occupied in 1967 and build a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital.
• Half of the Palestinians think the most pressing problem confronting the Palestinians today is the continued war in the Gaza Strip; 28% think it is the Israeli occupation

47% believe that the first most vital Palestinian goal should be to end Israeli occupation in the areas occupied in 1967 and build a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital. By contrast, 31% believe the first most vital goal should be to obtain the right of return of refugees to their 1948 towns and villages; 12% believe that the first and most vital goal should be to build a pious or moral individual and a religious society, one that applies all Islamic teachings; and 9% believe it should be to establish a democratic political system that respects freedoms and rights of Palestinians.

When asked about the most pressing problem confronting the Palestinians today, the largest percentage (50%; 57% in the Gaza Strip and 45% in the West Bank) said it is the continued war in the Gaza Strip; 28% said it is the Israeli occupation; 8% said it is corruption; 8% said it is unemployment; and 5% said it is the split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Three months ago, 56% (50% in the West Bank and 66% in the Gaza Strip) said it is the continued war in the Gaza Strip; and 23% said it is the Israeli occupation.

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This poll has been conducted in cooperation with the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung in Ramallah