Strategic Analysis: The Day After
The Likelihood, Consequences and Policy Implications of PA Collapse or Dissolution:
The “Day After” Final
January 2013-February 2014
PSR has initiated in January 2013 a policy research project that aimed at exploring Palestinian conditions and options in the day after the PA ceases to function. The initiative sought to produce a series of expert papers focusing on the main challenging areas of the “day after” in Palestinian political, social, financial, economic, and security life.
The initiative’s point of departure is that the PA may collapse or may decide to dissolve itself in the near future under the heavy weight of various financial and political pressures. Three scenarios are conceivable: (1) Israel and the US may impose on the PA severe or crippling financial and political sanctions; (2) the PLO leadership may conclude that the two-state solution is no longer practical and may begin a search for other means to gain Palestinian rights leading it to dissolve the PA; and (3) a series of economic, financial and political crises may lead to popular demands for change expressed in mass demonstrations against the PA and a widespread demand for regime change leading to chaos and eventual collapse.
The initiative goals are three: (1) explore the implications of such a development on various critical dimensions of Palestinian life and government, elaborating on the magnitude of the problems and challenges that might arise as a result of PA demise; (2) debate various policy options to respond to such a development, to contain the damage, and to capitalize on potential benefits, if any; and, (3) recommend a course of action for Palestinians to pursue in response to the expected complications.
PSR has gathered a team of 30 experts in the areas of finance and economics, internal security and law enforcement, health, education, communication, justice system, local government, water and electricity, civil and domestic political affairs, and the future of the two-state solution. Experts have been asked to write brief papers in their various areas of expertise examining the implications and policy options for the PA. Each paper has been reviewed and critiqued by two experts. Drafts of the expert papers have been discussed in small specialized workshops attended by policy makers, parliamentarians, experts, and academics.
This final report is based on the expert papers, workshops/focus groups, interviews, and background research. The report explores the likelihood and consequences of PA collapse or dissolution, summarizes the main findings of the expert papers, and examines the overall policy implications for the PA.
This initiative has been organized in cooperation with the U.S./Middle East Project (USMEP) and the Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre (NOREF). PSR is grateful for their support without which this project would not have been possible.
Day After Final Report (Full text)
Day After Expert Papers:
Economic Repercussions for the dissolution or collapse of the PNA, Dr. Nasser Abdel Karim
PNA Collapse and its Effect on Education, Dr. Naim Abo Hommos
The Effects of the PNA’s Dissolution or Collapse on the Provision of Health Services, Dr. Fathi Abu Moghli
The Repercussions of the PNA’s collapse on Infrastructure Services, Dr. Abdel Rahman Tamimi
The Role of Local Government Bodies in the Case of the PNA’s Collapse or Dissolution, Dr. Abed-Alnaser Makky
Repercussions of the PNA’s Collapse on Civil and Political Affairs, Dr. Sufian Abu Zaeda
Future of the Political Settlement after the Dissolution or Collapse of the PA, Ahmed Qurei (Abu Ala’a)