These are the results of opinion poll # 46, conducted by the Center for Palestine Research & Studies, between 27-31 January 2000. The poll deals with the peace process, the "Petition of the Twenty," PLC and PA performance, status of democracy and corruption, elections for the president and vice president, and political affiliation.
The total sample size of this poll is 1317 from Palestinians 18 years and older, of which 822 in the West Bank and 495 in the Gaza Strip. The margin of error is + 3% and the non-response rate is 3%.
1. The Peace Process
- 73% support the current peace process and 23% oppose it
- Support for armed attacks against Israelis increases to 43%; opposition to violence reaches 50%
- Level of confidence in Barak’s government continues to drop reaching 16%
- 28% believe that the Syrian-Israeli negotiations have a negative impact on the Palestinian track while 22% sees a positive impact
The results show that the level of support for the peace process has not changed compared to the situation two months ago as it now stands at 73% compared to 75% at that time. But the percentage of those who support armed attacks against Israeli targets has noticeably increased from 36% to 43% during the same period. The current level of support for violence is the highest since June 1999 when, at that time, it reached 45%.
Palestinian public trust in Barak’s government continued to decline reaching 16%. Trust in Barak’s government reached 29% last July, dropping to 18% last December. In what can also be seen as a confirmation of the lack of confidence in the chances for peace, 28% of the Palestinian public said that they think the on-going Syrian-Israeli negotiations will have a negative impact on the Palestinian track.
Support for violence increases specially in the West Bank (46%) compared to the Gaza Strip (39%), among holders of BA degree (50%) compared to illiterates (34%), among students (56%) and professionals (58%) compared to farmers (19%) and merchants (34%), among those with the highest income (50%) compared to those with the lowest income (42%), and among supporters of Hamas (73%) the PFLP (66%) and Islamic Jihad (64%) compared to supporters of Fateh (35%) and the nonaffiliated (36%).
2."The Petition of the Twenty"
- 64% did not hear of the “Petition of the Twenty,” while 22% support it and 10% oppose it
- 57% did not hear of the PA step of arresting some of those who signed the petition, while 35% oppose that arrest and only 5% support it
- 62% did not hear of the PLC condemnation of the petition, while 23% opposed it and 11% supported it
The results show that the majority of the Palestinians in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip has not heard of the “Petition of the Twenty” or of the reactions of the PA executive and the PLC to it. But it is clear that the majority of those who have heard of the petition have supported it, and that the majority of those who have heard of the steps taken by the PA executive or the PLC against those who signed it have opposed these steps. It is also possible that due to the sensitivity of the subject in the Palestinian street, many of those who have supported the petition and opposed PA steps may have wished not to state their views and claimed instead that they have not heard of it or of the PA steps. This view is strengthened by the poll findings that support for the petition greatly increases whenever there is an increase in the percentage of those who have heard of it.
The percentage of those who have supported the petition reached 22% while the opposition to it reached 10% with the rest claiming to be unaware of it. The percentage of those who opposed the PA decision to arrest some of those who signed the petition reached 35% while support for that decision did not exceed 5%, with the rest being unaware of it. Finally, the percentage of those who opposed the PLC decision to condemn the petition reached 23% while support for it reached 11% with the rest being unaware of the PLC decision.
Support for the petition increases in the Gaza Strip (24%) compared to the West Bank (20%), among residents of refugee camps (30%) compared to residents of towns and villages (19%), among men (34%) compared to women (10%), among holders of BA degree (42%) compared to illiterates (9%), among professionals (58%) and employees (37%) and students (30%) compared to housewives (8%), among those with the highest income (50%) compared to those with the lowest income (18%), and among supporters of the PFLP (61%) compared to supporters of Fateh (15%).
It is noticeable that the percentage of those who have not heard of the petition among women has reached 82% compared to 45% among men; 83% among the illiterates compared to 29% among those with BA degree; 84% among housewives compared to 8% among professionals and 56% among students; 29% among those with the highest income compared to 71% among those with the lowest income; and finally it has reached 29% among supporters of the PFLP compared to 66% among supporters of Fateh.
3. Performance of the PLC, PA, opposition, and NGOs
- Positive evaluation of the PLC reaches 42%
- The highest positive evaluation of PA institutions goes to the police and security forces (56%) followed by the presidency (54%), and the cabinet (44%).
- The judicial system and courts receive 42%.
- Positive evaluation of the performance of the Palestinian opposition reaches 33%
- Positive evaluation of the performance of the Palestinian NGOs reaches 56%
The results show an increase in the percentage of positive evaluation of the performance of the PLC from 37% in October 1999 to 42% in this poll. Similarly, a slight increase occurred in the positive evaluation of the performance of the security forces from 53% to 56%, the presidency from 53% to 54%, and the Judiciary and courts from 40% to 42% during the same period. No change has occurred in the positive evaluation of the performance of the cabinet (44%) and the opposition (33%). During the same period however, a decrease has occurred in the positive evaluation of the performance of the Palestinian NGOs from 60% to 56%.
4. Status of Democracy and Corruption in Palestine
- Positive evaluation of democracy and human rights in Palestinian areas reaches 31% compared to 70% for Israeli democracy, 61% for American democracy, 51% for French democracy, 34% for Jordanian democracy, and 31% for Egyptian democracy
- 63% believe that Palestinians can not criticize the PA without fear
- 63% believe that corruption exists in PA institutions while 20% believe that it does not exist
- Among those who believe in the existence of corruption, most believe it exists in ministries (84%), followed by police and security forces (76%), PLC (59%), and the office of the presidency (49%)
- 41% believe that corruption exists in Palestinian NGOs
- 64% believe that corruption in PA institutions will increase or remain the same in the future
The results show that the percentage of the positive evaluation of democracy in Palestine has increased from 23% in December 1999 (at the time of the release of “Petition of the Twenty” and the PA reaction by arresting some of those who signed it) to 31% now. The current percentage is similar to that registered last October (32%). But a large percentage of 63% still believes that people can not criticize the PA without fear. This percentage stood at 61% last December and 56% last October. No important changes have been recorded in the positive evaluation of democracy in other countries.
The results show a decrease in the percentage of those who believe in the existence of corruption in PA institutions from 68% last December to 63% now. The current percentage is similar to the one recorded last October. But the percentage of those who believe that corruption will increase or remain the same in the future remained high (64%) compared to the situation last December when it stood at 62% and last October when it stood at 59%.
Among those who bein the existence of corruption in PA institutions, the largest percentage believed it existed in ministries and government offices (84% compared to 80% last October) followed by security and police force (76% compared to 77%), the PLC (59% compared to 51%), and the office of the presidency (49% compared to 42% during the same period). The percentage of those who believe in the existence of corruption in Palestinian NGOs increased from 38% last October to 41% in this poll.
5. Elections for the President and vice President, and Political Affiliation
- In presidential elections, Yasir Arafat receives 47%, and Haidar Abdul Shafi and Ahmad Yasin 11% each
- In elections for the vice president among eight candidates, Haidar Abdul Shafi receives the largest percentage of votes (15%), followed by Faisal al Husseini (10%), Sa’eb Erikat and Mahmud Abbas (8% each), Hanan Ashrawi and Ahmad Qurei’ (6% each), Farouq al Qaddumi (4%), and Nabil Sha’ath (2%)
- In elections for the vice president among four candidates only, Abdul Shafi receives the largest percentage of votes (30%) followed by Al Husseini (24%), Abbas (15%) and Qurei’ (13%)
- Support for Fateh reaches 38%, Hamas 10%, Islamic Jihad 4%, PFLP 3%, and the nonaffiliated 42%
The results show a slight rise in the popularity of President Arafat from 45% last December to 47% in this poll. Arafat’s popularity stood at 42% last October. The popularity of Haidar Abdul Shafi and Ahmad Yasin remains almost unchanged at 11% each. Arafat’s popularity reached 52% in the Gaza Strip compared to 44% in the West Bank.
In elections for the office of vice president, Haidar Abdul Shafi received the largest percentage of votes when competing among eight candidates (15%) and among four candidates (30%). He was followed by Faisal al Husseini in both cases with 10% and 24% respectively. Mahmud Abbas came third in both cases with 8% and 15% respectively. Ahmad Qurei’ received 6% when competing among eight and 13% when competing among four.
When competing among four, Abdul Shafi receives more votes in the Gaza Strip (44%) than the West Bank (21%), while Al Husseini receives more votes in the West Bank (29%) than the Gaza Strip (17%). Similarly, Qurei’ receives more votes in the West Bank (16%) than in the Gaza Strip (10%). In the case of Abbas, no important differences are noticeable between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
Fateh remains stable at 38%, and so are Hamas (10%), the PFLP (3%), and the nonaffiliated (42%).
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