The Palestinian-Israeli Agreement: "Gaza-Jericho First" September 10-11, 1993
The policy Analysis Unit at the Center for Palestine Research and Studies is preparing an analysis of the Palestinian-Israeli agreement "Gaza-Jericho First". The analysis consists of a review of the terms of the agreement with emphasis on Palestinian reactions to the agreenent and on its security implications. The last section looks at the possible future scenario.For this purpose the Center has conducted apoll of 1244 Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza on Sept. 10-11, 1933. The Analysis will review the results of poll as part of the section dealing with Palestinian reaction.
The Center for Palestine Research and Studies has conducted a public opinion poll in the West Bank and Gaza. A random sample of 1244 Palestinians, over the age of 18, were interviewed on 10/9/1993 (in the West Bank) and 11/9/1993(in Gaza). The sample was distributed according to population size. Effort was made to represent all residential areas (i.e., city, town, village, and refugee camp). age and sex were also considered.The interviews were conducted on a face-to-face basis in West bank major towns (Jerusalem, Hebron, Bethlehem, Ramallah, nablus, Jericho, Tulkarm, and Jenin). In Gaza, interviews were conducted in the following areas: Gaza City (East/West), Alshati', Abasan, banishaila, Jabalia refugee camp, Khan Yunis (city and refugee camp), rafah (city and refugee camp), Alnsairat refugee camp, Albreig refugee camp, and beit Lahia.
Forty well-trained field workers were instructed to visit areas that attract all of society's groups and strata. These areas included, among others, bus/car stations that lead to villages and refugee camps, main markets, city centers, hospital entrances, ..etc.
823 questionnaires were received from the West Bank, and 415 were received from Gaza. The margin of error for this study is plus or minus 3% with a confidence level of 95%.
* Low professional:
school teacher, government employee, nurse, company employee, clerics,
secretaries, ..etc.
In scientific terms, this poll
has a number of limitations that must be considered before delving
into any in-depth analysis. Errors may have resulted as a consequence
of surveying only a random sample of, and not the complete, population.
Errors may also have occurred from non- response, choice of polling
dates (Friday & Saturday), choice of interview stations, improper
resulting from fear, mistrust, or frustration.
In their attempt to minimize errors,
the researchers at CPRS utilized forty well-trained data collectors
who participated in an intensive workshop where the goals of the
poll were explained. They were also lectured on survey research,
data collection, interviews, objectivity and scientific researchers
at CPRS made random visits to interview stations. Data were processed
through the use of SPSS, a computer package that is able to detect
illogical answers and other inconsistencies.
2. In your opinion, will this
proposed agreement lead to a Palestinian State and achieve Palestinian
rights?
3. Do you agree with amending the palestinian National Charter so as to achieve mutual recognition between the PLO and Israel?
4. Should the Intifada be stooped
to ensure the success of the proposed Palestinian-Israeli agreement?
5. Is it necessary to poll
the Palestinian people over the proposed agreement?
6. After hearing of the secret
talks between the PLO and Israel, and the proposed Palestinian-Israeli
agreement, your approval of the PLO as a legitimate and also representative
of the Palestinians has:
7. Concerning the proposed
agreement, the views of the opposition are more realistic and
better than the views of the agreement's supporters?
8. In expressing their views,
the opposition must utilize:
9. Do you agree with postponing the
negotiations over Jerusalem, settlements, and refugees to the
"final status" talks?
10. Will the proposed Palestinian-Israeli
agreement improve aconomic conditions in the West Bank and Gaza?
Geographical Distribution
Area of Residence
(Expressed as a % of the total value)
55% -- West Bank
49.9% City
33.5% -- Gaza Strip
19.5% Refugee Camps
10.9% -- Arab Jerusalem
30.6% Towns/Villages
Gender
Age groups
72% were male
42.0% -- 18-28
28% were females
30.7% -- 29-39
16.5%--40-50
10.3% -- over 50 years
Occupation
13.9% Laborers
18.6% Merchants
10.1% Craftsmen
10.1% Students
08% Housewives
1.8% Farmers
20.4% Low professional*
9.1% High professional*
5.7% Unemployment
2.2% Retired
Education
3.4% No education
17.1% Two-years collage
20.5% Up to 9 years
24.5% Bachelors
32.3% 10-13 years
02% Masters
* High professional: university professor, engineer, physician, lawyer, pharmacist, high management ..etc.
To asses the validity of the findings
of this poll, they must be placed in their proper context, especially
in relation to time. The reader must be reminded that the poll
was taken in the West Bank on the 10th of September 1993, the
day after the government of Israel had officially recognized the
PLO as the sole and legitimate representative of the Palestinians.
In Gaza, the poll was taken on the 11th of the same month. Israel
and the Government of the United Stated had been recognized the
PLO. The poll was taken close to the date of singing the proposed
agreement. These events, among others, have affected Palestinian
views and feelings about the questions in this survey. Emotions,
hopes, and fears were running high among Palestinians.
The poll shows a number of interesting
and indicative findings. For example, most Palestinians (81.2%)
are in agreement that a referendum must be taken over the proposed
Palestinian-Israeli agreement. They also share similar views of
democratic dialogue. 80.3% have indicated their desire to see
political groups solve problems through democratic dialogue, and
not through violence. In this respect, the situation in Gaza is
not as encouraging. A large minority agrees with the use of violence
if necessary to express political opposition. It can be also noted
that the majority of Palestinians (nearly 60%) are against postponing
negotiations over Jerusalem, settlements, and refugees. Palestinians
are almost evenly divided on issue of the Intifada with 42.6%
of them saying no to stopping the Intifada to ensure the success
of the proposed agreement. 34.2% of Palestinians disagree with
amending the Palestinian National Charter to achieve mutual recognition
between the PLO and Israel. Palestinians don't seem to be giving
unconditional support to this proposed agreement.
1. Do you agree with the with the proposed Palestinian-Israeli agreement "Gaza-Jericho First"?
Total %
West bank & Arab Jerusalem
Gaza
yes 64.9
64.3
66.4 No 27.9
28.0
27.3 Not sure
6.6 7.6
4.6
Yes 44.9
44.9
45.5 No 34.1
33.4
35.6 Not sure
20.6 21.7
18.9
Yes 56.5
58.8
54 No 34.2
32.0
39.5 Not sure
8.3 9.2
6.5
Yes 46.5
48.9
43.7 No 42.6
40.4
48.5 Not sure
9.6 10.7
7.8
Total %
West bank Arab Jerusalem %
Gaza %
Yes 81.2
81.6
81.4 No 14.0
13.4
15.2 Not sure
4.3 4.9
3.4
Increased
44.7
44.7 44.4
Decreased
24.9
23.8 27.1
Not changed
30.4
31.5 28.5
Yes 35.5
31.8
43.2 No 51.2
52.8
47.3 Not sure
13.2 15.2
9.5
Democratic dialogue
80.3
86.3 68.2
Violence if Necessary
13.5
6.1 27.9
Not sure
6.3 7.6
3.9
Total %
West Bank & Arab Jerusalem %
Gaza %
Yes 31.7
30.5
33.9 No 59.9
60.4
58.8 Not sure
8.4 9.1
7.0
Yes 65.4
65.6
65.5 No 15.1
16.0
12.8 Not sure
19.4 18.2
21.7
Type of locality by (Q1) approval
of the proposed agreement:
Yes %
No %
Not sure %
a) City
69 24.8
6.2
b) Village/Town
60 30.6
7.5
c) Refugee Camp
66.1
29.1 4.8
Place and residence by (Q1)
Yes %
No %
Not sure %
Nablus
66.5 27.5
6.0
Tulkarm
63.9 27.8
8.2
Jenin
64.7 26.5
8.8
Jericho
67.8 20.3
11.9
Ramallah
62.8 31.9
5.3
Hebron
54.5 39.7
5.8
Bethlehem
68.5
20.5 11.0
Gaza-North
63.6
27.3 9.1
Gaza-Middle
74.6
20.3 5.1
Gaza-South
66.5
29.6 3.9
Jerusalem
69.3
22.8 7.9
Education by Q1
Yes %
No %
Not sure
Illiterate
75.6
12.2 12.2
up to 9 years
72.6
19.9 7.5
10-13 years
65.2
26.4 8.4
Two-year collage
64.7
31.8 3.0
Bachelors
57.6
35.5 4.8
Masters & above
75.0
20.8 4.2
Age by Q1
Yes %
No %
Not sure %
18-28
62.2 30.6
7.1
29-39
60.6 31.1
7.2
40-50
75.4 20.7
2.5
Over 50
73.0 17.5
9.4