CPRS Polls - Survey Research Unit
Public Opinion Poll #10
Elections, Economic Conditions, Palestinian Prisoners, Palestinian Police, and Jerusalem June 30, 1994
Future of Jerusalem

The question of Jerusalem was raised for a number of reasons. Clashes between Israeli and Palestinian leadership through the media during the month kept the issue very much on the forefront. Also, previous poll results (September 1993) indicated that the majority of Palestinians are against the postponement of discussion of Jerusalem's status. The closure of Jerusalem, seen as a political siege by most Palestinians and the recently-elected Likud city government's policies concerning changes in the city seen as harmful to the Arab residents of the city, made Palestinians feel that the Israeli government is trying to impose a status quo arrangement for the city.

This tension was reflected in the responses of Palestinians to the question on the future of Jerusalem. The largest percentage (43.8%) of the respondents indicated that the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations will not lead to an acceptable solution to the issue of Jerusalem. The comparatively high figure should not necessarily be interpreted as a sign of resignation on the part of Palestinians to the fate of the city. It may be an indication of frustration with the status quo. A definition of what is "acceptable" was not supplied to respondents, which may also explain, in part, the pessimism reflected in their answers.

There is a difference between the West Bank and Gaza, where more Gazans trust that negotiations will bring about an acceptable solution to the issue of Jerusalem. This may be attributed to higher levels of confidence among Gazans in the negotiation process and in the PLO itself as reflected in the responses to other questions in this poll. Also, geography plays a role in this regard. Israel separates Jerusalem from Gaza and therefore fewer Gazans have had an opportunity to visit Jerusalem than West Bankers. The residents of Bethlehem, Jericho, and Jerusalem are most pessimistic about the future of the city. A total of 63.7% of Bethlehem residents, 56.84% of Jericho residents, and 52.1% of Jerusalem residents felt that Palestinian negotiations will not generate an acceptable outcome.

Palestinian Police Force

The Palestinian police force has now been deployed for two months in Gaza and Jericho. However, the geographic limit of their presence did not prevent Palestinians in the rest of the West Bank from forming opinions with regard to their performance. Many Palestinians have heard accounts of the police activities through the media and some have visited the area under their authority.

The poll shows a positive evaluation of the performance of Palestinian police. A total of 69.7% of the respondents believed that the performance of the police is either "good" or "acceptable." Only 13.5% indicated that the performance of the police is either "weak" or "bad." Here, we also note a difference in attitudes between the West Bank and Gaza. A total of 57.3% of Gaza respondents gave the police force a "good" grade, compared with 29.6% of the West Bank respondents. A total of 16.7% of West Bank respondents said that the performance of the police is either "weak" or "bad," compared with 7.1% in Gaza. In Jericho, 47.2% of the respondents gave the police force a "good" grade, and another 30.6% said that its performance is "acceptable." In contrast, 19.4% said that it is "weak."

Some West Bankers think that its is too early to make a judgement because of the lack of direct contact with the police. A total of 23.5% of West Bank respondents said that they did not know how to evaluate the police force,, compared with 3.6% of Gaza respondents.

It was noticeable that 52.1% of Hamas supporters, 45% of Islamic Jihad supporters, and 44% of PFLP supporters gave the police a grade of "good" or "acceptable."

The perceived urgent need for law, order, and justice in the Occupied Territories may have prompted Palestinians to think positively of the police and its role. Furthermore, many Palestinians in the West Bank are not necessarily basing their evaluation on the actual performance of the police, but on their symbolic role and expectations of future activities, particularly since it is really too early to evaluate their performance at this point. Also, many police stationed in Gaza have family there, which increases the sympathy of the population for the returning police officers. The results indicate that Palestinians are giving the police the benefit of the doubt at this early stage.

Perceptions of Israel's Commitment

Palestinians are doubtful about Israel's commitment to the Oslo and Cairo agreements. A total of 56% of the respondents felt that Israel's commitment is either "weak" or "bad." Although most respondents are doubtful about Israel's commitment to Oslo and Cairo agreements, a significant minority (32.3%) rated Israel's commitment as "acceptable" or "good". The high percentage of doubters is understandable and expected. It reflects the prevailing attitude among Palestinians that Israel is blocking the implementation of many articles of the Cairo and Paris agreements, such as Palestinian access to Israeli markets, the granting of safe passage between Gaza and Jericho, and the presence of Palestinian Police, flag, and passport control at the crossings in Rafah and the Alenby bridge. On the other hand, an approval rate of 32.3% reflects a level of trust undetected previously among Palestinians. As expected, the results indicate that this process is more developed in Gaza than in the West Bank. Almost 40% of Gazans evaluated Israel's commitment as good or acceptable, compared with 29% in the West Bank. Gazans have witnessed Israeli army withdrawal and assumption of control by Palestinians, while West Bankers, except the residents of Jericho, have not yet seen any changes on the ground to justify higher levels of optimism regarding Israel's commitment.

Palestinian Prisoners

There was a lot of discussion regarding the issue of Palestinian prisoners during this period. Prisoners began a hunger strike and there were a number of large demonstrations and strikes throughout the West Bank, including Jericho. Statements issued by prisoners advocate groups blamed the PLO for their plight. Prisoners are required to sign a special document as a condition for their release. The required document states that prisoners to be released must refrain from the use of violence or "terrorist" activities. These prisoners were also required to support the Gaza-Jericho Agreement. We asked Palestinians to evaluate the performance of the PLO in the negotiations over the release of prisoners from Israeli jails. The results of the poll show that while the majority of Palestinians (55.1%) evaluated the performance of the PLO positively, a large group (41.8%) think that it is "weak" or "bad." Dissatisfaction with the PLO's performance is higher in the West Bank, as it reaches 46.2%, compared with 33% in Gaza. The majority of opposition group supporters are dissatisfied with the performance of the PLO. For example, 60.1% of Hamas supporters and 75.4% of PFLP supporters said that PLO performance in this regard is either "weak" or "bad." This can be compared with 25.7% of Fateh supporters and 27.3% of Feda supporters who felt similarly. We also notice that the residents of Jerusalem, Ramallah, and Hebron are most critical of the performance of the PLO regarding Palestinian prisoners (see Table 3).

Table 3

Perception of PLO Performance Regarding Prisoners by Area of Residence

                  Good %     Acceptable %   Weak %    Bad %       Don't Know %       
Nablus            36.4       22.3           24.3      11.7        5.3                
Tulkarm           28.6       23.8           28.0      17.9        1.8                
Jenin             36.1       18.7           22.3      15.1        7.8                
Jericho           37.8       27.0           29.7      5.4         ---                
Ramallah          22.1       18.8           30.8      26.0        2.4                
Hebron            20.7       28.1           30.2      16.9        4.1                
Bethlehem         28.4       29.9           27.6      12.7        1.5                
Jerusalem         16.9       17.6           23.2      40.8        1.4                
Gaza Strip        37.7       26.9           20.2      12.8        2.4
Furthermore, the poll results show that evaluation of PLO performance is correlated with education, where 62.1% of those with 9 years of education or less feel that PLO performance is either "good" or "acceptable." This is compared with 43.9% approval among individuals with higher degrees (Master's or PhDs). A total of 51% of those with bachelor's degrees felt that the PLO performance is inadequate (see Table 4).

Table 4

Evaluation of PLO Performance Regarding Prisoners by Education

                 Good %           Acceptable %     Weak%            Bad %    Don't    
                                                                             Know %   
Up to 9 years    38.1             24.0             20.4             12.8     4.7      
Tawjihi          33.7             22.7             25.0             16.2     2.5      
2 year college   28.5             24.0             26.3             19.2     1.9      
bachelor's       19.1             27.6             27.3             23.5     2.5      
degree                                                                                
Master's         15.4             38.5             23.1             23.1     ---      
degrees & PhD
Satisfaction with the PLO performance in relation to the release of Palestinian prisoners is high among housewives, farmers, and the retired. Dissatisfaction with the PLO negotiators' performance, however, is high among professionals, employees, and students. This is probably due to higher levels of education and expectations.

Furthermore, the poll results show a direct correlation between the level of awareness of the news and perception of PLO performance regarding prisoners, where those who follow the news are more critical than those who do not. (See Table 5)

Table 5

Following the News by Perception of PLO Performance Regarding Prisoners

              Good %        Acceptable %  Weak %        Bad %         Don't Know %  
Always        28.8          24.6          23.8          21.1          1.7           
Often         24.9          25.5          29.2          18.7          1.7           
Sometimes     35.8          24.0          22.5          13.3          4.4           
Never         42.3          15.5          21.1          7.0           14.1
Comparing the above-mentioned statistics with the events of last month, we find ourselves facing what seems to be a contradictory situation. The majority of Palestinians gave a positive evaluation of the PLO performance, but at the same time, last month's events (general strikes, hunger strikes by the prisoners, large demonstrations) show that the issue of prisoners is at the top of the Palestinian agenda. One explanation for such a contradiction is that many Palestinians, in answering this question, were in fact evaluating the PLO and the negotiations process in general, thus resulting in positive responses. Also, Palestinians may be evaluating positively the PLO performance because of the large numbers of prisoners who have already been released since the DoP was signed. At the same time, the poll results show that most respondents adhered to the position of the political group that they support. The fact that the largest group of respondents supported Fateh led to a positive evaluation of the PLO. It could also be argued that many Palestinians feel that the responsibility to release Palestinian prisoners (most of whom are members of opposition groups) lies mainly with the Israeli authority.

Political Affiliation

We notice that support for Fateh has slightly declined from last month. A total of 41.7% of Palestinians surveyed indicated that they would elect Fateh candidates in a general political election, compared with 44.4% last month. Support for Fateh is consistent in the West Bank, at 40.1%. In Gaza, however, Fateh support declined from 52.4% to 45.2%. This month's figure is more consistent with previous results. Support for Hamas and PFLP is relatively consistent with last month, at 13.7% for Hamas and 6.4% for PFLP.

The second largest category for political affiliation this month is "none of the above," at 14.8%. This is an increase from last month of 3.7%. This phenomenon is noticeable in Gaza more than the West Bank, which could be an indication of uncertainty of political affiliation during the changing circumstances or possibly of fear on the part of some individuals to state their political affiliation at this stage.

Affiliation with Fateh is correlated with area of residence where support for Fateh is 10% higher on the average in Gaza, the north of the West Bank (Nablus, Tulkarm, Jenin), and Jericho than the middle and south of the West Bank (Ramallah, Bethlehem, Jerusalem, Hebron) (see Table 5). In the case of Hebron, a coalition of the "opposition" groups (Hamas, PFLP, Islamic Jihad, DFLP, and Islamic independents) has a higher percentage, 47.5%, than a coalition of the "support" groups (Fateh, Feda, Hizb el-Sha'b, and Nationalist independents), at 40.5%. Of course, without knowing who the independent candidates are, it is not possible to determine their position on issues. However, previous poll results indicate that supporters of Islamic independents tend to support attitudes more in line with the declared opposition, whereas the opposite is true for supporters of Nationalist independents.

Hizb el-Sha'b, PFLP, and Feda all have more presence in the West Bank than in Gaza, according to the results of this and previous polls. Willingness to elect independent candidates is higher in the West Bank as well.

Table 5

Political Affiliation by Place of Residence

          DFLP %   H.el-   Hamas %   Feda %  Isla.   Fateh   PFLP %    Isla   Nat    O'er   No      
                   Shab %                    Jihad   %                 Inds   Ind %  %      one %   
                                             %                         %.                           
Nablus    3.5      2.0     13.4      1.0     3.0     45.3    6.0       3.5    4.5    4.0    13.8    
T'lkrm    3.6      0.6     12.6      1.2     1.2     49.1    2.4       4.2    11.4   3.0    1.7     
Jenin     2.5      ---     9.6       1.3     1.9     45.8    1.9       4.5    4.5    3.2    10.8    
Jericho   6.3      3.1     18.8      3.1     3.1     43.8    ---       ---    3.1    9.4    9.3     
Ram.'h    1.9      2.4     11.5      1.0     5.3     35.1    6.3       5.3    13.5   2.4    15.3    
Hebron    2.5      2.1     21.9      2.9     4.5     28.5    10.7      7.9    7.0    1.7    10.3    
B'hem     1.5      7.7     9.2       3.1     3.8     35.4    10.8      5.4    6.2    1.5    15.4    
J'salem   4.4      3.7     8.8       4.4     1.5     34.6    8.1       6.6    10.3   1.5    16.1    
Gaza A    00.9     2.6     13.9      3.5     5.2     48.7    2.6       4.3    2.6    4.3    11.4    
Gaza B    0.7      2.1     14.4      ---     3.4     47.9    8.9       2.7    4.8    0.7    14.4    
Gaza C    ---      ---     10.9      1.5     1.5     29.9    9.5       8.0    11.7   3.6    23.4    
Gaza D    ---      ---     18.8      ---     ---     46.4    4.3       4.3    ---    2.9    23.3    
Gaza E    0.8      ---     16.1      ---     5.1     52.5    3.4       0.8    3.4    1.7    16.2    
Gaza F    3.5      ---     15.8      1.8     1.8     52.6    5.3       1.8    3.5    ---    13.9
Appendix A
1. In your opinion, what is the best way to choose the members of the
"Palestinian Council" of the Palestinian Interim Self-Governing Authority?
                                            Total West Bank Gaza 
a. Appointment by PLO leadership             14.8%  14.2%  15.9%
b. Appointment by political groups           05.4%  05.3%  05.6%
on a quota basis.
c. Political Elections                       76.1%  76.8%  74.7%
d. Other                                     03.7%  03.7%  03.8%
2. Will you participate in the election for the "Palestinian Council" of 
the Palestinian Interim Self-Governing Authority?
a. Yes                                       67.8%  65.7%  72.1%
b. No                                        18.0%  19.2%  15.6%
c. Not sure                                  14.2%  15.1%  12.3%
3. Can you( or the head of your household) meet all basic monthly household
expenses (food, housing, medical care, education)?
a. Yes                                       48.2%  52.3%  40.2 %
b. No                                        44.5%  40.5%  52.5%
c. Not sure                                  07.3%  07.2%  07.3%
4. With the implementation of self-rule, do you believe that your standard 
of living ______?
a. Will improve                             36.0%  31.4%  45.1%
b. Will worsen                              13.0%  15.5%  08.1%
c. Will remain the same                     17.4%  19.2%  14.0%
d. Don't know                               33.6%  33.9%  32.8%
5. Do you believe that the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations over Jerusalem 
will lead to an acceptable solution for the Palestinians?
a. Yes                                     22.8%  19.3%  29.4%
b. No                                      43.8%  47.3%  36.9%
c. Not sure                                33.5%  33.4%  33.7%
6. How do you evaluate the performance of the Palestinian police in Gaza and 
Jericho until now?
a. Good                                   38.9%  29.6%  57.3%
b. Acceptable                             30.8%  30.2%  32.0%
c. Weak                                   10.0%  12.4%  05.3%
d. Bad                                    03.5%  04.3%  01.8%
e. Don't know                             16.8%  23.5%  03.6%
7. How do you evaluate the general Israeli commitment to the Oslo agreement 
and the Cairo (Gaza-Jericho First) agreement until now?
a. Good                                   08.3%  07.5%  10.1%
b. Acceptable                             24.0%  21.5%  29.0%
c. Weak                                   29.7%  31.0%  27.0%
d. Bad                                    26.3%  26.9%  25.0%
e. Don't know                             11.7%  13.1%  08.9%
8. How do you evaluate the performance of the PLO negotiators regarding 
the release of Palestinian prisoners?
a. Good                                   30.8%  27.3%  37.7%
b. Acceptable                             24.3%  22.9%  27.0%
c. Weak                                   24.7%  27.0%  20.2%
d. Bad                                    17.1%  19.2%  12.8%
e. Don't know                             03.1%  03.6%  02.3%
9. If elections were to be held today, and you decided to participate, 
you would vote for candidates affiliated with:
a. DFLP                                   02.2%  02.9%  00.8%
b. Hizb al-Sha'b                          01.9%  02.4%  00.9%
c. Hamas                                  13.7%  13.3%  14.5%
d. Feda                                   01.7%  02.0%  01.0%
e. Islamic Jihad                          03.2%  03.2%  03.1%
f. Fateh                                  41.7%  40.0%  45.2%
g. PFLP                                   06.4%  06.5%  06.1%
h. Islamic independents                   04.8%  05.3%  03.9%
i. Nationalist independents               07.0%  08.1%  05.0%
j. Other (specify)                        02.6%  02.7%  02.3%
k. None of the above                      14.8%  13.6%  17.1%
Appendix B
Polling Districts
The West Bank

The West Bank was divided into 8 areas and 18 polling districts as follows:

  District     Population   Sample size   District    Population    Sample      
               size **                                size          size        
Nablus city     85,375       65           Tulkarm     105,699        79          
                                          (North)                               
Nablus East     81,995       88           Tulkarm      96,738        90          
                                          (South)                               
Nablus West     63,638       53           Tulkarm     202,432       169         
                                          (Total)                               
Nablus Total   230,998      206  
                                               
  District     Population   Sample size   District    Population    Sample      
               size                                   size          size        
Jenin (East)    96,721       97           Jericho      25,957        37          
Jenin (West)   100,490       69                                                  
Jenin  Total   197,211      166                                                 
  District     Population   Sample size   District    Population    Sample      
               size                                   size          size        
Ramallah        76,983       51           Hebron       82,947        81          
(North)                                   (North)                               
Ramallah        77,533       76           Hebron       80,073        81          
(South)                                   (South)                               
Ramallah        75,178       81           Hebron       96,545        81          
(City)                                    (city)                                
Ramallah       229,694      208           Hebron      259,565       243         
Total                                       Total                                 

  District     Population   Sample size   District    Population    Sample    
               size                                   size          size      
Bethlehem       68,646       68           Jerusalem    83,580        73        
(City)                                    (Vicinity)                          
Bethlehem       70,273       67           Jerusalem    81,370        69        
(Vicinity)                                (City)                            
Bethlehem      138,919      135           Jerusalem   165,310       142       
Total                                     Total
* (a complete list of villages and camps included in each district may be obtained from CPRS.) 

The Gaza Strip

The Gaza Strip was divided into 6 polling districts as shown below:

    District       Population     Sample      Sample Distribution                 
                   size           size**                                          
Gaza A              141,915       122         Jabalyia Camp, Jabalyia Village,    
                                              al-Nazla                            
Gaza B              150,000       118         Rimal                               
Gaza C              151,000       115         Zaytoun, Sabra                      
Gaza D              116,600       105         Deir al-Balah Camp, Deir al-Balah   
                                              City, Bureij Camp                   
Gaza E              140,524       118         Khan Younis City, Abbasan           
                                              al-Kabira                           
Gaza F              102,346        90         Rafah Camp
* CPRS estimates are based on the figures provided by Palestinian Population Handbook (Jerusalem: Planning and Research Center, 1993).
** The sample distribution in Gaza was based on the population distribution among refugee camps, cities, and villages and not on the basis of population size in the various regions.
*** In addition, interested individuals may obtain the results of the voting patterns in each one of these areas according to place of residence (city,village, and refugee camp) by contacting CPRS.

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