Elections and Palestinian-Jordanian Relations, August, 11-13, 1994
Municipal Appointments and ElectionsThese poll results confirm what the Palestinians have said in all previous polls, that most believe that elections are the preferred way to select their representatives. In this poll, 78.8% of Palestinians believe that general political elections are the preferred way to choose the interim self-governing authority. This represents an increase over the average of previous months, which is 73%. The increase comes basically from the Gaza Strip, where 83.4% chose elections, only 8.8% of them preferred that the PLO appoint members of the council. This may be due to the political changes in the area that led many to believe that such elections are possible and led others to be concerned about the whole idea of appointments. Many feel that it is necessary to have elected legislative and executive institutions that would be able to face up to the challenge of solving serious problems.
The poll shows a clear correlation between political affiliation and attitudes towards municipal appointments. As can be expected, opposition groups are more critical of appointments than supporting groups. For example, 69.8% of PFLP supporters are against these appointments. (Table 5)
Table 5
Support for Municipal Appointments by Political Affiliation
Support % Support if Oppose % No Opinion %
Temp %
Hamas 07.5 29.2 52.8 10.4
Is. Jihad 15.2 26.1 45.7 13.0
Is. Inds 06.2 43.1 30.8 20.0
PFLP 07.3 20.8 69.7 02.1
DFLP 12.9 25.8 58.1 03.2
Fateh 32.7 53.9 06.1 07.4
Feda 40.0 60.0 --- ---
H. el-Sha'b 26.9 26.9 42.3 03.8
Nat'l Inds 13.5 65.9 18.3 02.4
Other 21.7 39.1 20.3 18.8
No One 17.0 39.9 19.3 23.8
In contrast, only 6.1% of Fateh supporters share this view, compared with 32.7% of them who are supportive of appointments. Among Feda supporters, 40% are supportive of appointments. A number of indicators, as shown in Table 6, illustrate that a high degree of loyalty to the PNA exists among the supporters of Fateh and Feda and their positions on these issues show that they are less liberal than the supporters of those groups which are not part of the PNA, such as Hamas and PFLP.
Table 6
Opposed to the Ban Supportive of Opposed to
Freedom of Press Municipal
w/o Restriction Appointments
Fateh 59.9 47.5 6.1
Feda 62.9 37 ---
Hamas 72.5 66 52.8
PFLP 81.3 73 69.8
We also find that the most opposition to municipal appointments is in the areas of Bethlehem, Jerusalem, and Hebron. Support for municipal appointments decreases with educational attainment as demonstrated in Table 7.
Table 7
Support for Municipal Appointments by Education
I Support % Support if I Oppose % No Opinion %
Temp %
Up to 9 years 27.3 36.7 19.7 16.3
Tawjihi 18.7 50.9 21.9 08.5
2 year college 14.0 51.9 28.5 05.6
BA/BS 17.0 46.7 33.2 03.1
MA/MS/PhD 07.1 50.0 42.9 ---
The poll results show that opposition to municipal appointments comes from professionals, where 41.2% of them declare that they are against appointments. This may be due to their high level of education and their awareness of the general political situation as they are always following the news. The group least opposed to appointments is merchants, where only 20% of them said that they are against appointments. This may be a result of their dependence on a functioning city council and their belief that appointments create such councils as soon as possible. We also find that opposition to municipal appointments is higher among those who constantly follow the news (27%) than those who never follow the news (21%). In both cases, however, the largest percentage approve of the appointments on the condition that they are temporary and to prepare for elections, which is the official position of the authority.In regard to participation in general elections to select the members of PISGA, 65.1% of those surveyed expressed their intention to participate. Only 19.6% said that they will not participate and another 15.3% said that they were not sure. Here we find that more Gazans (69.3%) want to participate in elections than West Bankers (62.9%).
The poll shows a clear correlation between following the news and the intention to participate in elections where we find that 69.3% of those who constantly follow the news express their intention to participate while 47.4% of those who do not follow the news express the same intention. This is an expected correlation since following the news may be a demonstration of interest in political events and subsequent involvement in political life.
Increase % Decrease % No change, No Change, No Opinion %
Positive % Negative %
Nablus 26.6 20.7 31.5 14.7 06.5
Tulkarm 24.1 12.0 37.6 15.0 11.3
Jenin 36.9 12.6 32.0 09.7 08.8
Jericho 21.6 35.1 27.0 05.4 10.9
Ramallah 19.0 12.1 27.6 18.1 23.2
Hebron 23.4 12.6 17.3 31.8 14.9
Bethlehem 30.1 23.9 14.2 27.4 04.4
Jerusalem 17.5 25.4 24.6 23.7 08.8
In addition, we find an inverse correlation between education and evaluation of Palestinian leadership. A total of 47.4% of bachelor's degree holders surveyed evaluated the leadership negatively and 41.2% of them evaluated the leadership positively. A related correlation is found among professionals whose positive evaluation of the leadership is at 32.4% while their negative evaluation is at 52.9%.
Hamas % H.el- DFLP % Feda % Isl. Fateh % PFLP % Isl Nat O'er No one
Shab % Jihad Inds %. Ind % % %
%
Nablus 10.9 0.5 2.2 1.6 1.1 51.6 8.7 2.2 4.9 5.4 10.9
T'lkrm 12.2 2.3 0.8 5.3 3.8 44.3 0.8 6.1 10.8 2.3 11.3
Jenin 9.8 --- 2.0 2.0 1.0 50.0 1.0 2.9 5.9 7.8 17.6
Jericho 13.5 --- --- --- 8.1 32.4 5.4 --- 10.8 10.8 19.0
Ram.'h 11.4 2.6 2.6 --- 1.8 28.9 2.6 4.4 6.1 10.5 29.1
Hebron 22.0 2.8 1.9 3.3 7.0 30.4 5.6 6.1 9.8 3.3 7.8
B'hem 13.3 7.1 7.1 7.1 1.8 28.3 12.4 5.3 12.4 --- 5.2
J'salem 4.6 1.8 3.7 2.8 0.9 34.9 4.6 11.0 22.0 0.9 12.8
Gaza A 14.1 1.3 --- --- 3.8 35.9 11.5 2.6 5.1 7.7 18.0
Gaza B 14.3 --- --- --- 2.2 38.5 6.6 2.2 6.6 2.2 27.4
Gaza C 14.1 --- 1.0 --- 4.0 29.3 7.1 6.1 7.1 13.1 18.2
Gaza D 25.3 1.3 2.5 1.3 2.5 49.4 5.1 --- 3.8 --- 8.8
Gaza E 13.3 1.0 2.0 3.1 3.1 53.1 7.1 1.0 3.1 2.0 11.2
Gaza F 13.3 --- --- 1.3 1.3 36.0 12.0 4.0 6.7 1.3 24.1
1. Last month, a municipal council was appointed in Gaza and a municipal committee in Nablus. With regard to municipal appointments, I...
Total West Bank Gaza
a. Support them 21.1% 22.8% 17.9% b. Support them if they are 44.6% 42.7% 48.0% temporary and in preparation for elections. c. Oppose them 23.9% 25.5% 20.9% d. Have no Opinion 10.4% 09.0% 13.2%
2. Recently, al-Nahar and Akhbar al-Balad were banned from some Palestinian territories
a. I support the ban 15.7% 18.5% 10.5% b. I oppose the ban 65.9% 63.7% 69.9% c. No opinion 18.4% 17.8% 19.6%
3. With regard to freedom of the press, I
a. Support freedom for Palestinian 12.7% 13.9% 10.5% press that supports the official national line only (the line of the Palestinian National Authority). b. Support freedom for Palestinian 25.4% 24.1% 27.9% press that supports the official national line and that of the opposition. c. Support freedom for Palestinian 55.2% 54.2% 57.1% (whether supportive or opposing) and non-Palestinian press without conditions. d. Have no opinion 06.7% 07.8% 04.5%
4. Two months after the establishment of the Palestinian National Authority in Gaza and Jericho, I...
a. Have increased my support for the 25.2% 25.0% 25.8% Palestinian leadership. b. Have decreased my support for the 17.2% 17.5% 16.6% Palestinian leadership. c. Have not changed my support for 27.9% 26.0% 31.4% the leadership, which was positive. d. Have not changed my support for 19.2% 20.3% 17.0% the leadership, which was negative. e. Have no opinion 10.5% 11.2% 09.2%
5. In my opinion, religious sovereignty in Jerusalem (including supervision of the Awqaf and Islamic religious places in the city) should be
a. Palestinian 67.5% 65.3% 71.6% b. Jordanian 00.8% 00.9% 00.6% c. joint Palestinian-Jordanian 07.6% 10.1% 02.8% d. joint Arab-Islamic 21.8% 20.7% 23.7% e. Other (Specify) 02.3% 03.0% 01.3%
6. With regard to the Jordanian-Israeli agreement that was signed in Washington last month by King Hussein and Yitzhak Rabin, I believe that it..
a. Will not influence Palestinian- 25.4% 24.7% 26.9% Jordanian relations. b. Will influence Palestinian- 18.6% 18.8% 18.3% Jordanian relations positively. c. Will influence Palestinian- 40.6% 40.6% 40.5% Jordanian relations negatively. d. No opinion 15.4% 15.9% 14.3%
7. Included in the aforementioned Jordanian-Israeli agreement is the following part with regard to Jerusalem: (Israel respects the present special role of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan in Muslim holy shrines in Jerusalem. When negotiations on the permanent status will take place, Israel will give high priority to the Jordanian historic role in these shrines.)
That part concerning the Jordanian role in Jerusalem:
a. will facilitate the return to 15.9% 15.3% 16.9% Palestinian sovereignty over Jerusalem in the final negotiations. b. will hinder the return to 52.4% 49.1% 58.8% Palestinian sovereignty over Jerusalem in the final negotiations. c. will have no impact on the 18.2% 21.3% 12.5% chances of the return to Palestinian control over Jerusalem in the final negotiations. d. No opinion 13.5% 14.3% 11.8%
8. In your opinion, what is the best way to choose the members of the "Palestinian Council" of the Palestinian Interim Self-Governing Authority?
a. Appointment by PLO leadership 11.2% 12.5% 08.8% b. Appointment by political groups 07.0% 07.2% 06.5% on a quota basis. c. Political Elections 78.8% 76.4% 83.4% d. Other 03.0% 03.9% 01.3%
9. Will you participate in the election for the "Palestinian Council" of the Palestinian Interim Self-Governing Authority?
a. Yes 65.1% 62.9% 69.3% b. No 19.6% 21.8% 15.5% c. Not sure 15.3% 15.3% 15.2%
10. If elections were to be held today, and you decided to participate, you would vote for candidates affiliated with:
a. Hamas 13.9% 13.0% 15.6% b. Hizb al-Sha'b 01.7% 02.3% 00.6% c. DFLP 02.0% 02.6% 01.0% d. Feda 02.3% 03.0% 01.0% e. Islamic Jihad 03.0% 03.1% 02.9% f. Fateh 39.0% 38.2% 40.4% g. PFLP 06.3% 05.4% 08.1% h. Islamic independents 04.3% 05.1% 02.7% i. Nationalist independents 08.3% 09.9% 05.4% j. Other (specify) 04.5% 04.5% 04.6% k. None of the above 14.7% 12.9% 17.7%
Polling Districts
The West Bank
The West Bank was divided into 8 areas and 18 polling districts as follows:
District Population Sample size District Population Sample
size ** size size
Nablus city 85,375 63 Tulkarm 105,699 69
(North)
Nablus East 81,995 60 Tulkarm 96,738 68
(South)
Nablus West 63,638 61 Tulkarm 202,432 137
(Total)
Nablus Total 230,998 184
District Population Sample size District Population Sample
size size size
Jenin (East) 96,721 72 Jericho 25,957 38
Jenin 100,490 32
(West)
Jenin Total 197,211 104
District Population Sample size District Population Sample
size size size
Ramallah 76,983 30 Hebron 82,947 73
(North) (North)
Ramallah 77,533 53 Hebron 80,073 70
(South) (South)
Ramallah 75,178 36 Hebron 96,545 71
(City) (city)
Ramallah 229,694 119 Hebron 259,565 214
Total Total
District Population Sample District Population Sample
size size size size
Bethlehem 68,646 57 Jerusalem 83,580 57
(City) (Vicinity)
Bethlehem 70,273 56 Jerusalem 81,370 57
(Vicinity) (City)
Bethlehem 138,919 113 Jerusalem 165,310 114
Total Total
* (a complete list of villages and camps included in each district may be obtained from CPRS.)
The Gaza Strip
The Gaza Strip was divided into 6 polling districts as shown below:
District Population Sample Sample Distribution
size size**
Gaza A 141,915 85 Jabalyia Camp, Jabalyia Village,
al-Nazla
Gaza B 150,000 100 Rimal
Gaza C 151,000 99 Zaytoun, Sabra
Gaza D 116,600 80 Deir al-Balah Camp, Deir al-Balah
City, Bureij Camp
Gaza E 140,524 100 Khan Younis City, Abbasan
al-Kabira
Gaza F 102,346 90 Rafah Camp
* CPRS estimates are based on the figures provided by Palestinian Population Handbook (Jerusalem: Planning and Research Center, 1993).
** In addition, interested individuals may obtain the results of the voting patterns in each district each one of these areas according to place of residence (city, village, and refugee camp) by contacting CPRS.
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