The West Bank and Gaza Strip, September 29-30, 1994
This is the twelvth public opinion poll conducted by the Survey Research Unit (SRU) at the Center for Palestine Research and Studies. The following topics are covered in this poll: economic living conditions, the negotiations, the performance of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) and the opposition, armed resistance, Palestinian-Jordanian future relations, the participation of women in elections, and political affiliation.SRU has been conducting regular public opinion polls to document an important phase in the history of the Palestinian people and to record the reactions of the Palestinian community with regard to current political events. CPRS does not adopt political positions and does not tolerate attempts to influence the conclusions reached or published for political motives. CPRS is committed to providing a scholarly contribution to analysis and objective study and to publishing the results of all our studies and research. The poll results are published independently and with unit analysis in both Arabic and English. They provide a vital resource for the community and for researchers needing statistical information and analysis. The polls give members of the community opportunity to voice their opinion and to seek to influence decision makers on issues of concern to them. In a broader sense, SRU strives to promote the status of scientific research in Palestine. Consistent with its commitment to the development of the status of survey research in the West Bank and Gaza, SRU has utilized new methods to select the sample (See Methodology section). SPU will be conducting polls every six weeks.
Enclosed are the results of the most recent public opinion poll that has been conducted in the West Bank (including Arab Jerusalem) and the Gaza Strip (see Appendix).
This poll was conducted over a three day period: Thursday and Friday, September 29 and 30, and Saturday, October 1, 1994. A number of political events preceeded the poll, summarized below:
- There was an increase in discussion of the topic of elections as the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations regarding elections continued.
- The economic situation continued to be one of the most important topics of concern to Palestinians. Mr. Ahmed Quree', Economic Minister for the PNA, made a statement that the wheels of the Palestinian economy were beginning to move. Also, Mr. Fraih Abu Madeen, Justice Minister, announced that more and more companies are registering themselves as legal enterprises in the ministry. The results of the poll as will be indicated later show that the majority of Palestinians feel that the economic situation is still bad.
- There is a continuing debate concerning the imprisonment of the supporters of the opposition especially in Gaza. At the same time, dialogue between the PNA and the opposition continued.
- Negotiations between Jordan and Israel continued during this period amid an increasing stabilization of their relations.
- The transformation of authority over education has been completed in this period where now Palestinians have authority over the educational system.
The questionnaire was designed through consultations with experts. A pre-test involving fifty questionnaires was conducted in the Nablus area prior to the poll. The questionnaire instrument includes a large number of demographic variables as indicated in the section on sample distribution.Household Sample Selection
SPU researchers adopted a multi-stage sample selection process. For the purpose of this poll, public-forum interviews were eliminated and replaced by household interviews. The process of sample selection began with the creation of lists of all locations in the West Bank and Gaza according to district, population size and distribution, and type of locality (city, town, village, and refugee camp). A simple random sample of locations to be surveyed was selected from these lists, as shown in Table 1.
Table 1
Sample Localities Selection
The Following table lists the localities that were included in the sample for this month.
District (Sample Localities (Type) District (Sample Localities (Type)
Size/ %) Size/%)
Nablus (117/9.4%) Nablus (C), Balata Tulkarm/Qalqilya Tulkarm (C),
(RC), Qabalan (V), (96/7.7%) Tulkarm (RC), Bala'
DirElhatab (V), (V), Salfit (T),
Talouza (V), Dir Azzoun (V), Iktaba
Sharaf (V) (V)
Jenin (96/7.7%) Jenin (C), Jenin Jericho (23/1.8%) Jericho (C),
(RC), Barta' (V), Jiftlik (RC)
Ajja (V), Arrabeh
(T), Tammoun (V)
Ramallah (119/9.5%) Ramallah (C), Hebron (145/11.6%) Hebron (C), Ithna
El-Bireh (C), (T), Bani Na'im
Jalazoun (RC), (T), Sa'ir (T), Dir
Birzeit (V), Samit (V), Al-Aroub
Bit-Our Eltihta (RC)
(V), Aroura (V),
Bittin (V)
Jerusalem (76/6.1%) Old City (C), Sheik Bethlehem (78/6.2%) Bethelehem (C), Bit
Jarah (C), El-Tour Sahour (T), Taqu'
(C), Shufat (RC) (V), Al-Deheishi
(RC), El-Aizariya
(T), Battir (V)
Gaza North Jabalia (RC), Bit Gaza City Al-Rimal,
(137/11.0%) Hanoun (V) (141/11.3%) Al-Shugae'i
Gaza Middle El-Magazi (RC), Gaza South Rafah (C), Rafah
(113/9.0%) Khan Yunis (RC), (109/8.7%) (RC)
Khan Yunis (C)
Fieldworkers and researchers created maps for these localities. These maps indicated the boundaries, main streets, and clusters of residential neighborhoods in these localities which were further divided into a number of sampling units (blocks) with each unit comprising an average of two hundred housing units. The sample units (blocks) to be surveyed were selected randomly. Households were selected based on a systematic sampling framework. For example, if the fieldworker estimated the number of houses in the sampling unit to be two hundred and is assigned ten interviews, the fieldworker divided the 200 by 10, obtaining 20. Therefore, the fieldworker would conduct the first interview in the 20th house, and the second in the 40th, and so on. Fieldworkers were asked to start their sample selection of housing units from a well-defined point in the area such as a post office, mosque, business, etc. They were asked to report on the direction of their sampling walks. Fieldworkers played an active role in drawing the maps for the localities in the sample and in estimating the number of houses in each block.To select the individual within the selected household to be interviewed, fieldworkers had to flip a coin twice. The first flip was to choose gender of the respondent and the second was to choose whether the respondent is to be older or younger than forty years. When in the household, fieldworkers would conduct the interview with the person who has the characteristics that they selected in this manner.
We received 750 questionnaires form the West Bank and 501 from Gaza, for a total of 1251 interviews.
Table 2 provides the reader with data on sample distribution for the present poll where the sample was selected based on household interviews. The table also compares present data with those of the month of June 1994 where the sample was obtained primarily through public forum interviews.
It is obvious that household interviews resulted in a higher representation of those Palestinians with fewer years of education. It has also led to a higher percentage of housewives and older individuals. Occupational distribution has also changed where the representation of laborers and employees has declined. The sampling method utilized in this poll resulted in an equal number of men and women.
(Expressed as a % of the total sample)
Sample September June 1994 Sample September June
Distribution 1994 Distribution 1994 1994
West Bank Gaza 59.9 40.1 66.2 33.8 Education Up 44.9 32.2 30.2
Strip to 9 Yrs. 10.5 12.4 32.6
10-12 Yrs. ----- 16.5
Two-Yr. Coll. 19.2
Bachelors MA & 01.5
PHD
City Town 41.9 07.4 38.0 08.7 Single Married 23.8 72.3 3.9 31.8
Village R. Camp 24.9 25.8 31.2 22.1 Others 64.5
03.7
Refugee 50.8 49.2 44.4 55.6 Male Female 50.3 49.7 58.8
Non-Refugee 41.2
Age 18-22 23-26 20.1 12.8 21.5 Occupation 10.9 9.6 15.0
27-30 31-35 14.8 12.1 18.6 16.4 Laborers 38.1 2.7 9.6 10.1
36-42 43-50 12.0 12.4 12.4 12.1 Craftsmen 5.7 10.1 2.6 20.6
0ver 50 16.4 09.2 09.2 Housewives 1.3 9.4 04.0
Specialists* 18.6
Employees** 08.6
Merchants 12.8
Students 02.1
Farmers 00.5
Retired 07.7
Unemployed
* Employees: Schoolteacher, Government Employee, Nurse, Lower-level Company Employee, Secretary, etc.
** Specialists: University Teacher, Engineer, Doctor, Lawyer, Pharmacist, Executive, etc.
These changes are believed to have had influence on the results of the poll. The following table illustrates the effect that the changes on the sample distribution had on the survey results. Here, it is obvious that household interviews resulted in a larger representation of Palestinians who are not following the news as much as those represented in a sample obtained through public-forum interviews.Table 3
Following the News by Sample Type (%)
Following the News Household Sample September 94 94 Always 25.4 33.1 Often 17.9 27.1 Sometimes 48.7 36.2 I don't follow 8.0 3.6 the news
Our data collectors have participated in a number of workshops where the goals of the poll were discussed. They were also lectured on household interviewing, confidence building, mapping, sampling techniques, survey methods, and scientific research. Four special training seminars for data collectors were conducted during this month, attended by a total of sixty-four fieldworkers. Training for data collection was conducted in the field where actual illustrations of the sample selection and interviewing techniques were conducted.Data collectors worked in groups supervised by qualified researchers. CPRS researchers made random visits to interview stations and discussed the research process with data collectors. More than fifty percent of our data collectors were female, so as to ensure the representation of women in the sample. Data collectors were assigned a limited number of interviews (an average of 15 per day) to allow for careful interviewing.
Interviews took place primarily over a three day period, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, and were conducted on a face-to-face basis. A few interviews took place on Wednesday.
Table 4:
Sample Size (%) by Date and Time of Interviews
Day of Interview % of Interviews Time of Interview % of Interviews
(for all days)
Wednesday Thursday 1.2 37.1 44.2 17.5 8am-9:59am 13.2 18.4 24.6 23.5
Friday Saturday 10am-11:59am 20.3
12pm-1:59pm
2pm-3:59pm 4pm and
After
The mean time for an interview was eleven minutes. The interview period is defined as the time that is spent on the selection of the household and respondent, as well as the actual interviewing.Household interviews resulted in a lower non-response rate, estimated at 8.6%. Some respondents, we believe, were reluctant to state their political views out of fear or disinterest in the present political factions .
Data were processed through the use of SPSS, a computer package that is able to detect illogical answers and other inconsistencies. The margin of error for this poll is less than 3%, and the confidence level is higher than 95%.
Economic Living ConditionsThe poll shows that most Palestinians (50%) feel that one year after the signing of the Declaration of Principles (DOP) their economic conditions did not change. As much as 40.8% feel that economic conditions have deteriorated since the signing of the DOP and only 9.2% said that conditions have improved. The largest percentage of Gaza Strip respondents (48.5%) said that their economic conditions have deteriorated since the signing of the DOP. This is 13% more than that is in the West Bank. Another 39.7% of Gazans felt that economic conditions have not changed, compared with 56.9% in the West Bank. Only 11.8% of Gazans and 7.5% of West Bankers said that the economic conditions have improved.
Improvement in the economic conditions is felt the most by the residents of Gaza City where 21.3% indicated such a perspective. They are followed by the residents of the Ramallah-Bireh City where 15.1% indicated that their economic conditions have improved. On the other hand, none of the respondents in the Jericho area sample indicated an improvement in the economic situation and 70% of them said that conditions are still the same. The residents of north, middle, and south of the Gaza Strip feel the most worsening in their economic conditions a year after the signing of the DOP. They are followed by the residents of Tulkarm, Jenin, Hebron, and Bethlehem areas. In Jerusalem, 81% of the respondents indicated no-change in economic conditions. (Table 5)
Table 5
Area of Residence by Economic Conditions
Improve % Worsen % No Change %
Nablus 6.8 27.4 65.8
Tulkarm 7.3 44.8 47.9
Jenin 3.1 41.7 55.2
Jericho --- 30.4 69.6
Ramallah 15.1 29.4 55.5
Hebron 11.0 45.5 43.5
Bethlehem 2.6 42.3 55.1
Jerusalem 2.6 15.8 81.6
Gaza North 10.2 50.4 39.4
Gaza City 21.3 27.0 51.7
Gaza Middle 8.8 65.5 25.7
Gaza South 4.6 56.0 39.4
There is also a relationship between refugee status and view of economic conditions where 45.4% of the refugee sample felt that the situation has deteriorated. This is compared with 35.8% among non-refugees. Related to that is respondents' place of residence as the poll shows that residents of refugee camps have a pessimistic view of the effect of the signing of the DOP on economic conditions. A total of 50.5% of refugee camp residents in the sample felt that economic conditions have deteriorated, compared with 40.5% among city residents, 35.4% among village residents, and 28% among town residents where 67.7% of them see no change in the situation. There is also a correlation between education and view of economic condition. The least educated view the economic situation as deteriorating and the most educated see no change.It seems that regardless of Palestinian attitudes towards the political developments and the peace process, as expressed by their political affiliation, few Palestinians are willing to claim that their general economic status has improved. As Table 6 demonstrates, the People's Party -- PPP -- (referred to as Hizb el-Sha'b in previous polls) and Fateh are less likely to note that their economic situation has worsened than respondents affiliating with other political groups. However, Fateh supporters are not more likely to express improvement in the economic situation, with most expressing that their economic situation has not changed.
Table 6
Political Affiliation by Economic Conditions
Improve % Worsen % No Change %
PFLP 9.6 48.9 41.5
Fateh 11.4 33.0 55.6
Islamic Jihad 10.8 45.9 43.3
PPP (Hizb el-Sha'b) 20.0 20.0 60.0
Hamas 8.1 48.4 43.5
DFLP --- 66.7 33.3
Feda 16.7 50.0 33.3
Islamic Inds 2.3 61.4 36.3
Nationalist Inds 7.0 49.3 43.7
Others 4.6 47.7 43.7
No one 8.6 38.3 53.1
The Palestinian-Israeli NegotiationsOne year after the signing of the DOP, the majority of Palestinians show support for the negotiations. A total of 51.8% of respondents said that their support for the negotiations has either increased (23.3%) or didn't change (28.5%). In comparison, 37.3% declared that they oppose the negotiations while 17.2% said that their support for the negotiations has declined and another 20.1% said that their opposition is still the same. The negative evaluation for the negotiations is higher in Gaza Strip than in the West Bank. In Gaza, 44.2% (20.5%+23.7%) indicated that their support for the negotiations has declined or that their opposition is still the same. This is compared with 32.7% (17.7%+15%) in the West Bank. It is possible that West Bankers still believe that the negotiations are necessary and are waiting for them to materialize. In the Gaza Strip, the issue of negotiations is not as urgent.
The poll results show a correlation between district and view of the negotiations. Unlike the rest of the Gaza Strip, the residents of Gaza City show the most positive outlook towards the negotiations, where 39% said that their support for the negotiations has increased. In contrast, residents of the middle and south of the Gaza Strip are least supportive of the negotiations. For example, 33.8% of the residents of the south of the Gaza Strip declared that their support has declined.
Table 7
Area of Residence by Attitude Towards Negotiations
Increase % Decrease % No Change, No Change, Don't Know
Positive % Negative %
Nablus 22.2 12.0 10.3 45.3 10.2
Tulkarm 26.0 22.9 10.4 33.3 7.3
Jenin 34.4 10.4 15.6 30.2 9.4
Jericho 8.7 17.4 13.0 43.5 17.4
Ramallah 21.8 16.0 20.2 29.4 12.6
Hebron 25.5 12.4 24.1 22.1 15.9
Bethlehem 20.5 16.7 24.4 21.8 16.6
Jerusalem 18.9 16.2 20.3 25.7 18.9
Gaza North 22.1 16.2 26.5 23.5 11.7
Gaza City 39.0 9.2 14.9 29.1 7.8
Gaza Middle 17.9 25.9 23.2 26.8 6.2
Gaza South 5.6 35.2 31.5 23.1 4.6
This is related to another variable which is refugee status. Refugees are more critical of the negotiations than non-refugees. (Table 8) The residents of the middle and south of Gaza are mostly refugees. In Gaza City, the majority of the residents are non-refugees.Table 8
Refugee Status by Attitude Towards Negotiations
Increase % Decrease % No Change, No Change, Don't Know %
Positive % Negative %
Refugee 21.0 20.2 22.8 27.8 8.2
Non-Refugee 25.3 14.1 17.1 29.8 13.7
This correlation meant that opposition to the negotiations is higher in refugee camps than in towns, cities, and villages.The most educated give the negotiations a negative mark, where 48.4% of those with Bachelors degrees said that their support for the negotiations has declined or that their opposition is still the same. In comparison, 46.4% of them view the negotiations positively. In addition, we find that negative evaluation of the negotiations is high among students where 48.4% of them said that their support has declined or that they still oppose the negotiations, compared with 41.3% who view the negotiations positively.
There is also a correlation between political affiliation and views on the negotiations. It is interesting to find that among the support groups, the supporters of the People's Party are the most critical. A total of 26.7% of them declared that their support for the negotiations, of which they were a part, has declined. (Table 9)
Table 9
Political Affiliation by Attitude Towards Negotiations
Increase % Decrease % No Change, No Change, Don't Know %
Positive % Negative %
PFLP 2.1 14.9 64.9 12.8 5.3
Fateh 39.9 12.9 3.6 35.9 7.7
Islamic Jihad 16.2 21.6 40.5 8.1 13.6
PPP 13.3 26.7 6.7 53.3 ---
Hamas 7.3 20.3 44.7 20.3 7.4
DFLP 6.7 33.3 53.3 --- 6.7
Fida 58.3 8.3 --- 33.4 ---
Islamic Inds. 11.4 20.5 31.8 18.2 18.1
Nationalist 15.5 32.4 12.7 31.0 8.4
Inds.
Others 16.4 20.3 14.1 37.5 11.7
No one 9.9 15.5 28.0 20.5 26.1
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