CPRS Polls - Survey Research Unit
Public Opinion Poll #2
Palestinian Elections, October 5-10, 1993
The policy analysis unit at the Center for Palestine Research and Studies will release, in two days, an analysis of the Palestinian elections examining the views of the main regional actors as well as the PLO and the Palestinian opposition towards the proposed elections. The analysis will also examine different options regarding a Palestinian electoral system.

As you know, the Palestinian-Israeli Declaration of Principles states that general political elections will take place in the West Bank and Gasa Strip not later than July 13, 1993, in order to elect the members of the "Palestinian Council" of the Interim Self-Governing Authority.

For this purpose, the Survey Research Unit at the center has conducted a poll of Palestinian attitudes towards the above mentioned elections. Please find in the following, a summary of the main results as well as the methodology used.


Table of Contents

Introduction

The Center for Palestine Research and Studies has conducted a public opining poll in the West Bank and Gaza. A random sample of 1259 Palestinians, over the age of 18, were interviewed. The sample was distributed according to population size. Effort was made to represent all residential areas (i.e., city, town, village and refugee camps). Age and sex were also considered.

The interviews were conducted on a face-to basis in West bank major towns (Jerusalem, Hebron, Bethlehem, Ramallah, Nablus, Jericho, Tulkarm, and Jenin). In Gaza interviews were conducted in the following areas: Gaza city (East/West), Alshati, Abasan, Banishaila, jabalia refugee camp, Khan Yunis (city and refugee camp), Rafah (city and refugee camp), Alnsairat refugee camp, Albreig refugee camp, and beit Lahia.

Forty well-trained field workers were instructed to visit areas that attract all of the society's group and strata. These areas included, among others, bus/car stations that lead to villages and refugee camps, main markets, city centers, hospital entrances,.. etc.

809 questionnaire were received from the West Bank, and 450 were received from Gaza. The margin of error for this study is plus or minus 3% with a confidence level of 95%.


Methodology

To assess the validity of this poll, the findings must be placed in their proper context, especially in relation to time. The reader should be reminded that there is, at present a great deal of ambiguity among Palestinians about the elections. To familiarize the respondents with the issue, field workers were instructed to read a script that is related to the elections from the Declaration of Principles. At this stage, it is suggested that the results of this poll should be treated in broad terms so as to foster understanding of Palestinian general views regarding elections and other important issues.

A poll, such as this one, may have a number of limitations. errors may gave resulted as a consequence of surveying only a random sample of, and not the complete, population. Errors may also have occurred from non-response, choice of interview station, improper wording of questions, misquotations by date collectors, and fake answers by the respondents resulting from fear, mistrust, or frustration.

In their attempt to minimize errors, the researchers at CPRS utilized forty well-trained data collectors who participated in an intensive workshop where the goals of the poll were explained. They were also lectured on survey research, data collection, interviews, objectivity and scientific research.data collectors worked in groups supervised by qualified researchers. Researchers at CPRS made random visits to interview stations. Date were processed through the use of SPSS, a computer package that is able to detect illogical answers and others inconsistencies.


Sample Distribution

(Expressed as a % of the total sample)
Geographical Distribution Area of Residence
63% West bank "including Jerusalem" 44% city
37% Gasa Strip 23% Refugee Camp
33% Towns/Villages
Gender Age
60% Were male 49.6% 18-28
40% Were female 29.1% 29-39
14.2% 40-50
07.1% Over than 50
Occupation
12.4% Laborers 11.5% Merchants
10.6% Craftsmen 12.3% Students
13.0% Housewives 01.6% Farmers
24.1% Employees 06.5% Specialists
06.9% Unemployed 01.1% Retired
Education
02.9% No education 18.9% Tow-years college
18.5% Up-to 9 years 22.7% Bachelors
34.3% 10-13 years02.7% Masters & PHDs
Marital Status
34.0% Single
64.9% Married
01.1% Divorced & Widowed


Remarks

The poll shows that the majority of Palestinians (73.9%) believe that general political elections must be used when choosing the members of a Palestinian Interim Council. 68.2% declared that they will participate in the elections. However, there seems to be either "somewhat fair"or "unfair".

Furthermore, fear of political turmoil is widespread among Palestinians. 47% said that they are concerned about internal violence or possible government oppression of the opposition groups. Internal violence is the number one concern of Hamas sympathizers, as well as, Feda's, Hizb al-Sha'b, Islamic Jihad, independents, and "others". For the PFLP(George Habash) and DELP (Nayef Hawatmeh) sympathizers, the number one concern is possible government oppression of the opposition. Fateh sympathizers are mostly concerned with economic conditions and internal violence. Meanwhile 35.5% of respondents have indicated their concern with job availability and standards of living.

The poll indicates a number of variations between Gaza and the West Bank. 72.8% of West Bank respondents and only 60.2% of Gazans have indicated that they will participate in the elections. This difference may be, partly, due to widespread doubts among Gazans about the fairness of the elections. 28.6% of them think that the elections will be fair, while 32.2% said that it will be unfair, and 39% said that it will be somewhat fair.

Additionally, it is interesting to find that a majority of the supporters of all political groups (except Islamic Jihad) have indicated that they will participate in the elections (see Appendixes).

It is also expected that the election issue will be the focus of Palestinian politicians and the public for months to come. And as a result of the scientific and historical value of studying this issue, the Survey and Polls Unit at CPRS will continue to monitor public opinion on a monthly basis, and will make sure that the result of all polls are made available to all interested individuals and parties.


Results

1. In your opinion, what is the best way to choose members of the "Palestinian Council" of the Palestinian Interim Self-Government Authority?

(To be read vertically; column total= 100%)
total West BankGaza Strip
a) Appointment by PLO leadership 15.7%18.1% 17.6%
b) Appoint by polgroups (quota) 04.9% 05.1% 4.6%
c) Political elections 74.0% 71.5% 78.2%
d) Others 05.4% 05.3%05.5%

2. Will you participate in the elections for the " Palestinian Council" of the Palestinian Interim Self-Government Authority?

Total West BankGaza
a) Yes68.2% 18.1%11.7%
b) No16.8% 14.9%22.8%
c) Not sure14.0% 12.3%17.1%

3. If elections were to be held today, you will vote for candidates affiliated with:

Total West BankGaza
a) Hamas13.3% 13.1%60.1%
b) PFLP 06.5% 04.6%10.3%
c) Fateh 44.7% 45.9%42.6%
d) Feda (Abed Robo) 02.2% 02.1% 02.2%
e) DELP (Hawatmeh) 00.9%01.3% 00.2%
f) Hizb Al Sha'b20.0% 01.5%02.9%
g) Islamic Jihad 03.7% 02.0%07.0%
h) Independents11.8% 12.6%10.1%
i) Others 14.9% 16.9%11.0%

4. Will the elections for the Palestinian Interim Council be:

Total West BankGaza
a) fair?38.7% 44.328.6%
b) somewhat fair?35.9% 34.139.1%
c) unfair25.4% 21.6%32.3%

5. My most important concern at this time of transition to Palestinian self- government is:

Total West BankGaza
a) Job availability and higher standards
of living.
35.5% 35.7% 35.4%
b) Possible repression of the opposition
groups by Palestinian government & police.
13.6%12.2% 15.7%
c) Internal Palestinian violence 33.5%34.5% 31.7%
d) Moral corruption and abandonment of religion. 10.3% 09.5% 11.8%
e) Others07.1% 08.1%05.4%


Appendixes

A- Place of Residence

1. In your opinion, what is the best way to choose the numbers of the Palestinian Council of the Palestinian Interim Self- Government Authority?

City VillageRefugee Camp
a) Appointment by PLO Leadership 15.3% 16.1% 16.4%
b) Appointment by political groups 04.7%06.0% 03.3%
c) Political elections 75.7%70.9% 74.8%
d) Others04.3% 07.0%05.5%
Total100% 100%100%

2. Will you participate in the elections for the "Palestinian Council" of the Palestinian Interim Self-Government Authority?

City VillageRefugee Camp
a) Yes74.5% 65.8%60.0%
b) No13.2% 18.8%24.6%
c) Not sure12.3% 15.4%15.4%
Total100% 100%100%

3. If elections were to be held today, you will vote for candidates with:

City VillageRefugee Camp
a) Hamas 12.2% 13.7%13.6%
b) PFlP04.4% 07.5%12.1%
c) Fateh44.1% 43.0%47.2%
d) Feda (Abed Robo) 02.7%02.0% 01.4%
e) DFLP (Hawatmeh) 00.5% 01.5% 01.4%
f) Hizb Al-Sha'b02.6% 01.2%02.1%
g) Islamic Jihad03.0% 06.7%02.1%
h) Independents12.8% 12.2%08.0%
I) Others17.7% 12.2%12.1%
Total100% 100%100%

4. Will the elections for the Palestinian Interim Council be:

City VillageRefugee Camp
a) fair? 39.6% 39.9%35.4%
b) somewhat fair? 38.9%33.8% 33.2%
c) unfair21.5% 26.3%31.4%
Total100% 100%100%

5. My most important concern at this time of transition to Palestinian self- government is:

City VillageRefugee Camp
a) Job availability and higher standards of living. 38.1%29.0% 40.4%
b) Possible repression of the opposition groups by Palestinian government & police. 11.2%16.4% 13.8%
c) Internal Palestinian violence 34.8%35.7% 27.7%
d) Moral corruption and abandonment of religion . 09.2% 11.2% 11.0%
e) Others06.7% 07.7%07.1%
Total100% 100%100%

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