The policy analysis unit at the Center for Palestine Research and Studies will release, in two days, an analysis of the Palestinian elections examining the views of the main regional actors as well as the PLO and the Palestinian opposition towards the proposed elections. The analysis will also examine different options regarding a Palestinian electoral system.As you know, the Palestinian-Israeli Declaration of Principles states that general political elections will take place in the West Bank and Gasa Strip not later than July 13, 1993, in order to elect the members of the "Palestinian Council" of the Interim Self-Governing Authority.
For this purpose, the Survey Research Unit at the center has conducted a poll of Palestinian attitudes towards the above mentioned elections. Please find in the following, a summary of the main results as well as the methodology used.
The Center for Palestine Research and Studies has conducted a public opining poll in the West Bank and Gaza. A random sample of 1259 Palestinians, over the age of 18, were interviewed. The sample was distributed according to population size. Effort was made to represent all residential areas (i.e., city, town, village and refugee camps). Age and sex were also considered.The interviews were conducted on a face-to basis in West bank major towns (Jerusalem, Hebron, Bethlehem, Ramallah, Nablus, Jericho, Tulkarm, and Jenin). In Gaza interviews were conducted in the following areas: Gaza city (East/West), Alshati, Abasan, Banishaila, jabalia refugee camp, Khan Yunis (city and refugee camp), Rafah (city and refugee camp), Alnsairat refugee camp, Albreig refugee camp, and beit Lahia.
Forty well-trained field workers were instructed to visit areas that attract all of the society's group and strata. These areas included, among others, bus/car stations that lead to villages and refugee camps, main markets, city centers, hospital entrances,.. etc.
809 questionnaire were received from the West Bank, and 450 were received from Gaza. The margin of error for this study is plus or minus 3% with a confidence level of 95%.
To assess the validity of this poll, the findings must be placed in their proper context, especially in relation to time. The reader should be reminded that there is, at present a great deal of ambiguity among Palestinians about the elections. To familiarize the respondents with the issue, field workers were instructed to read a script that is related to the elections from the Declaration of Principles. At this stage, it is suggested that the results of this poll should be treated in broad terms so as to foster understanding of Palestinian general views regarding elections and other important issues.A poll, such as this one, may have a number of limitations. errors may gave resulted as a consequence of surveying only a random sample of, and not the complete, population. Errors may also have occurred from non-response, choice of interview station, improper wording of questions, misquotations by date collectors, and fake answers by the respondents resulting from fear, mistrust, or frustration.
In their attempt to minimize errors, the researchers at CPRS utilized forty well-trained data collectors who participated in an intensive workshop where the goals of the poll were explained. They were also lectured on survey research, data collection, interviews, objectivity and scientific research.data collectors worked in groups supervised by qualified researchers. Researchers at CPRS made random visits to interview stations. Date were processed through the use of SPSS, a computer package that is able to detect illogical answers and others inconsistencies.
(Expressed as a % of the total sample)
Geographical Distribution Area of Residence 63% West bank "including Jerusalem" 44% city 37% Gasa Strip 23% Refugee Camp 33% Towns/Villages Gender Age 60% Were male 49.6% 18-28 40% Were female 29.1% 29-39 14.2% 40-50 07.1% Over than 50 Occupation 12.4% Laborers 11.5% Merchants 10.6% Craftsmen 12.3% Students 13.0% Housewives 01.6% Farmers 24.1% Employees 06.5% Specialists 06.9% Unemployed 01.1% Retired Education 02.9% No education 18.9% Tow-years college 18.5% Up-to 9 years 22.7% Bachelors 34.3% 10-13 years 02.7% Masters & PHDs Marital Status 34.0% Single 64.9% Married 01.1% Divorced & Widowed
Furthermore, fear of political turmoil is widespread
among Palestinians. 47% said that they are concerned about internal
violence or possible government oppression of the opposition groups.
Internal violence is the number one concern of Hamas sympathizers,
as well as, Feda's, Hizb al-Sha'b, Islamic Jihad, independents,
and "others". For the PFLP(George Habash) and DELP (Nayef
Hawatmeh) sympathizers, the number one concern is possible government
oppression of the opposition. Fateh sympathizers are mostly concerned
with economic conditions and internal violence. Meanwhile 35.5%
of respondents have indicated their concern with job availability
and standards of living.
The poll indicates a number of variations between
Gaza and the West Bank. 72.8% of West Bank respondents and only
60.2% of Gazans have indicated that they will participate in the
elections. This difference may be, partly, due to widespread doubts
among Gazans about the fairness of the elections. 28.6% of them
think that the elections will be fair, while 32.2% said that it
will be unfair, and 39% said that it will be somewhat fair.
Additionally, it is interesting to find that a majority
of the supporters of all political groups (except Islamic Jihad)
have indicated that they will participate in the elections (see
Appendixes).
It is also expected that the election issue will
be the focus of Palestinian politicians and the public for months
to come. And as a result of the scientific and historical value
of studying this issue, the Survey and Polls Unit at CPRS will
continue to monitor public opinion on a monthly basis, and will
make sure that the result of all polls are made available to all
interested individuals and parties.
(To be read vertically; column total= 100%)
2. Will you participate in the elections for the "
Palestinian Council" of the Palestinian
Interim Self-Government Authority?
3. If elections were to be held today, you will vote for candidates
affiliated with:
4. Will the elections for the Palestinian Interim Council be:
5. My most important concern at this time of transition to Palestinian
self- government is:
1. In your opinion, what is the best way to choose the numbers of the Palestinian Council of the Palestinian Interim Self- Government Authority?
2. Will you participate in the elections for the "Palestinian
Council" of the Palestinian Interim Self-Government Authority?
3. If elections were to be held today, you will vote for candidates
with:
4. Will the elections for the Palestinian Interim Council be:
5. My most important concern at this time of transition to Palestinian
self- government is:
The poll shows that the majority of Palestinians
(73.9%) believe that general political elections must be used
when choosing the members of a Palestinian Interim Council. 68.2%
declared that they will participate in the elections. However,
there seems to be either "somewhat fair"or "unfair".
1. In your opinion, what is the best way to choose
members of the "Palestinian Council" of the Palestinian
Interim Self-Government Authority?
total
West Bank Gaza Strip
a) Appointment by PLO leadership
15.7% 18.1%
17.6% b) Appoint by polgroups (quota)
04.9% 05.1%
4.6% c) Political elections
74.0% 71.5%
78.2% d) Others 05.4%
05.3% 05.5%
Total
West Bank Gaza
a) Yes 68.2%
18.1% 11.7%
b) No 16.8%
14.9% 22.8%
c) Not sure 14.0%
12.3% 17.1%
Total
West Bank Gaza
a) Hamas 13.3%
13.1% 60.1%
b) PFLP 06.5%
04.6% 10.3%
c) Fateh 44.7%
45.9% 42.6%
d) Feda (Abed Robo)
02.2% 02.1%
02.2% e) DELP (Hawatmeh)
00.9% 01.3%
00.2% f) Hizb Al Sha'b 20.0%
01.5% 02.9%
g) Islamic Jihad 03.7%
02.0% 07.0%
h) Independents 11.8%
12.6% 10.1%
i) Others 14.9%
16.9% 11.0%
Total
West Bank Gaza
a) fair? 38.7%
44.3 28.6%
b) somewhat fair? 35.9%
34.1 39.1%
c) unfair 25.4%
21.6% 32.3%
Total
West Bank Gaza
a) Job availability and higher standards
of living.
35.5% 35.7%
35.4% b) Possible repression of the opposition
groups by Palestinian government & police.
13.6% 12.2%
15.7% c) Internal Palestinian violence
33.5% 34.5%
31.7% d) Moral corruption and abandonment of religion.
10.3% 09.5%
11.8% e) Others 07.1%
08.1% 05.4%
A- Place of Residence
City
Village Refugee Camp
a) Appointment by PLO Leadership
15.3% 16.1%
16.4% b) Appointment by political groups
04.7% 06.0%
03.3% c) Political elections
75.7% 70.9%
74.8% d) Others 04.3%
07.0% 05.5%
Total 100%
100% 100%
City
Village Refugee Camp
a) Yes 74.5%
65.8% 60.0%
b) No 13.2%
18.8% 24.6%
c) Not sure 12.3%
15.4% 15.4%
Total 100%
100% 100%
City
Village Refugee Camp
a) Hamas 12.2%
13.7% 13.6%
b) PFlP 04.4%
07.5% 12.1%
c) Fateh 44.1%
43.0% 47.2%
d) Feda (Abed Robo)
02.7% 02.0%
01.4% e) DFLP (Hawatmeh)
00.5% 01.5%
01.4% f) Hizb Al-Sha'b 02.6%
01.2% 02.1%
g) Islamic Jihad 03.0%
06.7% 02.1%
h) Independents 12.8%
12.2% 08.0%
I) Others 17.7%
12.2% 12.1%
Total 100%
100% 100%
City
Village Refugee Camp
a) fair? 39.6%
39.9% 35.4%
b) somewhat fair?
38.9% 33.8%
33.2% c) unfair 21.5%
26.3% 31.4%
Total 100%
100% 100%
City
Village Refugee Camp
a) Job availability and higher standards of living.
38.1% 29.0%
40.4% b) Possible repression of the opposition groups by Palestinian government & police.
11.2% 16.4%
13.8% c) Internal Palestinian violence
34.8% 35.7%
27.7% d) Moral corruption and abandonment of religion .
09.2% 11.2%
11.0% e) Others 06.7%
07.7% 07.1%
Total 100%
100% 100%
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