Palestinian Elections, November 11, 1993
The Center for Palestine Research and Studies (CPRS) has, so far, conducted two public opinion polls on the proposed Palestinian elections. The results of the first poll were released on the 29th of October, 1993, and were published in local and international newspapers. The response to the first poll was overwhelmingly positive.Therefore, CPRS has decided to continue an ongoing research project on palestinian elections. A public opinion poll on the topic will be conducted each month until the proposed elections date (the 13th of July as mentioned in the palestinian-Israeli Declaration of Principles).
These are the results of the third public opinion poll that has been conducted in the West Bank and Gaza on the 11th of November,1993.
A random sample of 1855 Palestinian, over the age of 18, were interviewed. The sample was distributed according to population size. Effort were made to represent all residential areas (i.e., city, town, village and refugee camp). Age and sex were also considered.
The interviews were conducted on a face- to- face basis in West Bank major towns (Jerusalem, Hebron, Bethlehem, Ramallah, Nablus, Jericho, Tulkarm, Qalqilya and Jenin). In Gaza, interviews were conducted in the following areas: Al-Shati', Khan Yunis, Rafah (town and refugee camp), Al-Breig refugee camp, Beit Lahia village, Al- Zaytoun, Al-Shuja'iyah, Al-Rimal, Qarerah village and Jabalya village.
Fifty four well-trained field workers instructed to visit areas that attract all of the society's groups and strata. These areas included, among others, bus/car stations that lead to villages and refugee camps, main markets, city centers, hospital entrances, ..etc.
1171 questionnaire were received from the West Bank, and 684 were received from Gaza. The margin of error for this study is plus or minus1%, with a confidence level of 99%.
CPRS researchers are constantly trying to refine and improve the validity of the research methodology and the reliability of the collected data. For these purposes, the sample size was raised from 1259 to 1855. This has resulted in a higher confidence level and a lower margin of error.
Moreover, more female data collectors were hired to ensure the representation of women in the sample. They were instructrd to visit public institutions that attract women.
Furthermore, the majority of our data collectors participated in an intensive workshop where the goals of the poll were discussed. They were also lectured on survey methods, scientific research, field work, and sampling.
Data collectors worked in groups supervised by qualified researchers. CPRS researchers made random visits to interview stations and discussed the research process with data collectors. All interviews took place on the same day.
A poll, such as this one, may have a number of limitations. Errors may have resulted as a consequence of surveying only a random sample, and not the complete population. Errors may also have resulted from non-response which is estimated at 10% Women comprised the majority of non-respondents. Others refused to respond becouse they believed that their opinions were irrelevant and were not taken into account when making decisions. A number of non-respondents expalined their position as a statement against Palestinian-Israeli agreements.The reader must also be reminded that 23.5% of those who responded identified themselves as " independents" or "Others". Some of them said that they "gave up" on Palestinian politics. Others have "negative" views of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, but did not identify themselves as part of the opposition groups.
We must also note that one more choice was added to the original choices in question # 5 after the data analysis. This addition has resulted from the fact that 16.4% of the sample chose "others" as their answer. It was clear that a pattern was appearing; 10.8% (out of the 16.5%) specified their answer as "competence".
Expressed as a % of the total sample)
Geographical Distribution Area of Residence Marital Status 63% West Bank "including Jerusalem" 46.5% Town 35.0% Single 37% Gaza Strip 30.3% Villages 64.4% Married Gender Age 23.2% Ref. Camps 00.6% Divorced & Widowed 60% Males 48.2% 18-28 Occupation 40% Females 31.2% 29-39 12.2% Laborers 11.4% Merchants Refugee Status 14.4% 40-50 07.4% Craftsmen 11.3% Students 49.0% Refugee 6.2% Over than 50 12.2% Housewives 01.8% Farmers 51.0% Non-refugee 29.8% Employees 08.0% Specialists Education 05.5% Unemployed 00.4% Retired 02.3% Illiterate 20.8% Up to 9 yr. Place of Interview 29.2% 10-13 yrs 24.7% Bachelors 8.7% Nablus 08.9% Ramallah 20.7% Two-yr college 02.3% MA+ 03.2% Qalqilia 07.2% Jenin 10.1% Jerusalem 01.7% Jericho 10.8% Hebron 06.8% Tulkarm 19.1% Gaza-N 04.5% Gaza-M 13.3% Gaza-S
The findings of this poll must be placed in their proper context. Our field workers have reported that there is still a great deal of ambiguity about the elections. There are also doubts about the possibility of an elections taking place, and about their "fairness". At the time of the poll, emotions were running high, as a result of the widespread violence and settlers provocations in the area. People were also becoming impatient and frustrated with the "no-change" situation on the ground.The findings of the present poll confirm many of the results obtained in the previous poll. The majority of Palestinian (73%) believe that the best means to choose the members of the Palestinian Interim Council is general elections. In this respect, we notice that there are differences between the West Bank and Gaza. More respondents, in the West Bank (18%) trust the PLO to appoint the members of the Interim Council, with 70.7% of them preferring general elections. In contrast, more Gazans (77%) call for general elections as the best means to choose the members of the Interim Council, and less of them (10.8%) prefer appointment by the PLO.
Regarding participation in the elections, 72.9% of West Bankers and only 62.2% of Gazans declared that they will participate. The discrepancy between attitudes towards elections and attitudes towards participation in Gaza could be explained by a higher percentage of respondents who support the opposition groups (in Gaza 33.1%; in the West Bank 29.6%). Some of those supporters express their opposition to the Palestinian-Israeli Agreement by insisting on an elections (as democratic means), while refusing to particcipate in an elections that has resulted from an agreement which they have rejected. We must remind the reader that our previous poll showed widespread doubts among Gazans about the fairness of the elections. 28.6% of them think that the elections will be fair, while 32.2% said that it will be unfair, and 39% said that it will be somewhat fair. In the West Bank 44.3% said that the elections will be fair, and 21.6% said that it will be unfair, and 35.9% said it will be somewhat fair.
As to the rights of the opposition under a Palestinian government, the majority of Palestinians (72.3%) said that the government must guarantee the right of the opposition groups to exist and to express themselves. Here, we notice that there is a gap between Gaza and the West Bank 59.2% of Gazans said "yes" to the rights of the opposition. while 79.8% of West Bank said "yes". This could be explained by the ironic fact that a higher percentage of opposition supporters "do not think that a Palestinian government must guarantee the rights of the opposition". This could be an expression of an opposition to the Palestinian-Israeli agreements (i.e., elections, government "assuming that it will be led by the present PLO leadership". Opposition supporters may also be expressing their fear that government will not in fact guarantethe rights of the opposition.
To Palestinians, the most important factor that they will refer to when choosing the members of the Palestinian Interim Council, is the role of the candidate in national struggle (33.9%). This was the first choice of Fateh supporters, who comprised the largest single group in the sample (41.3%). Academic credentials (21.5%) and "competence" (10.8%) were also important factors. Some Palestinians considered religiosity (15.4%) as an important factor. It is surprising to find out that only 11.2% and 1.5% cinsider political affiliation and family allegiances as important factores.
The responses to the question on political systems show that the majority groups represented (73.7%) if we add those who chose an Israeli parliamentary system). 18.7% chose an Islamic political system governed by one Islamic party. Fewer Palestinian chose a political system that is similar to "Arab government".
When we compare the results of this poll with those of our previous polls, we notice that there is a small decline in the popularity of Fateh (45.6%) on September 10, and 41.3% on November 11). At the same time, there is an increase in the popularity of the major opposition groups (Hamas, PFLP and FýDFLP) (refer to the enclosed chart). This may be due to the unstable sistuation in the Occupied Territories, and to "unfulfilled" political economic expectations after the singing of the "Declaration of Principles".
Finally, it is suggested that the results of this poll should be treated in broad so as to foster understanding of Palestinian views regarding elections and other important issues. The reader must also remember that the process of collecting information is an ongoing one. It is also important to note that there are gaps between "what people say"and"what people mean", and between "attitude" and "behavior".
1. In your opinion, what is the best way to choose the members of the "Palestinian Council" of the Palestinian Interim Self-Government Authority?
West Bank & Gaza West Bank Gaza a) Appointment by PLO leadership 15.4% 18.0% 10.8% b) Appointment by political groups 06.3% 06.7% 05.5% c) Political elections 73.0% 70.7% 77.0% d) Others 05.3% 04.6% 06.7% 2. Will you participate in the elections for the "Palestinian Council" of the Palestinian Interim Self-government Authority?
a) yes 69.0% 72.9% 62.2% b) No 15.3% 11.3% 22.2% c) Not sure 15.7% 15.8% 15.6% 3. If elections were to be held today, you will vote for candidates affiliated with:
a) Hamas 14.6% 12.8% 17.7% b) PFLP 09.0% 06.8% 12.7% c) Fateh 41.3% 40.6% 42.5% d) Feda (Abed Rabo) 03.0% 03.9% 01.5% e) DFLP 02.3% 03.5% 00.3% f) Hizb El-Sha'b 03.0% 04.3% 00.7% g) Islamic Jihad 03.3% 03.8% 02.4% h) Independents 09.3% 10.8% 06.9% I) Others 14.2% 13.5% 15.3% 4. Do you believe that a Palestinian government, when established, must guarantee the right of the opposition groups to exist to freely express themselves?.
a) Yes 72.3% 79.8% 59.2% b) No 11.2% 08.4% 16.1% c) Not sure 16.5% 11.8% 24.7% 5. When voting for candidates in the elections, the most important factor that I will take into consideration is:
a) Family allegiance 01.5% 01.7% 01.4% b) Religiosity of cardidates 15.4% 13.8% 18.3% c) Academic credentials 21.5% 22.9% 18.9% d) Role in national struggle 33.9% 35.8% 30.6% e) Political affiliation 11.2% 09.9% 13.5% f) "Competence" 10.8% 10.0% 12.3% g) Others 05.7% 05.9% 05.0% 6. If a Palestinian State is to be established, I will chose a political system that is:
a) Democratic, where all political groups are represented. 58.1% 58.4% 57.7% b) Islamic (one-party system) 18.7% 18.8% 18.5% c) Presidential, similar to most Arab countries. 03.4% 03.7% 02.9% d) Similar to the Israeli parliamentary system 15.6% 15.3% 16.2% e) Others 04.2% 03.8% 04.7%
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