Palestinian Political Attitudes Towards Elections and Other Issues of Concern
January 16, 1994
First District (North: Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahia, Jabalia, al-Nazli)The vote in this area is divided almost equally among Fateh with its coalition, the opposition, and the "swing voters." Fateh is still the largest party in the area with 36.4% of the vote (Feda and Hizb el-Sha'b with 1% gave Fateh no significant help in this district). The opposition and the "swing voters" got an equal percentage, each with 31.3%.
Second District (Gaza City "North": al Shati, Shiek Radwan, al-Nasr)
A possible coalition among the opposition groups could win over this area if it is faced by Fateh alone. The opposition got 30.8% and Fateh got 25.9% of the vote. If the opposition ran against a Fateh coalition, there would have been a tie, with 30.8% for each. Again, the "swing vote" might determine the outcome in this district.
Third District (Gaza City "west": al-Sabra, al-Daraj)
The opposition and the Fateh coalition got almost equal votes in this district, with 43% for the opposition and 44.3% for the Fateh coalition. We notice a large presence of Fateh (41.8%) and a significant presence for Hamas (21.5%).
Fourth District (Gaza City "east": al-Tofah, al-Zaytoun, al-Shogayia)
In this area we notice a high percentage of "swing voters," 40.3%. Support for Fateh is 30.7% and support for its coalition is 33.2%, compared with 26% for the opposition groups.
Fifth District (Middle: al-Bureig, al-Magazi, Nuseirat, Zawaydeh, Deir el-Balah)
The results of the poll show a wide gap in support between the opposition and a Fateh coalition. A coalition among the opposition groups would take this area with 43.4% of the vote (23% going to Hamas). In contrast, 32.1% of the respondents identified with a Fateh coalition. Fateh alone got 31%.
Sixth District (Khan Yunis: city and refugee camp)
In this district, 42.5% of the respondents identified themselves as Fateh supporters compared with 36.3% as opposition supporters. This district was different than all other districts since "Islamic independents" got more support than "nationalist independents".
Seventh district (South: Rafah, Qararah, Bani-Suhaila, Khaza'a, Abasan)
Fateh got its highest support in Gaza from this district with 44% of the vote. A Fateh coalition got 46% and an opposition coalition got 30% of the vote.
The present poll shows that if elections took place on January 16, 1994, Fateh would be the largest single Palestinian groups. Compared with a coalition of the opposition groups, Fateh could win the areas and districts of Nablus, Jericho, Jenin, Jerusalem, and Tulkarm. It could also win Ramallah and Bethlehem, but with some difficulty. Hebron, however, is leaning towards the opposition coalition. In the Gaza Strip, the political map is even more complex, where it is difficult to determine the final outcome of an election based on "electoral districts". When we compare Fateh with the opposition coalition, we find that Fateh shows a decisive win in only two districts (Khan Yunis and the South). It faces great difficulties in the first district (north), the third district (Gaza city "west") and the fourth district (Gaza city "east"). The opposition coalition leads in the second district (Gaza city "north") and the fifth district (middle).One of the most interesting findings in this poll is that the Palestinian electorate could be described as tri-polar, including: DOP supporters (mainly Fateh), the DOP opposition groups, and the "swing voters." The three categories are almost of equal standing, with a trend towards "independence" or ambivalence.
In general, the poll shows that the Palestinian electorate is a complex one. It is going through a process of change responding to the circumstances of the ongoing current political period. The results of the peace negotiations and the general economic and living conditions will have major impact on Palestinian political affiliations.
Lastly, there is no doubt that this poll conducted by CPRS represents an important indication of the Palestinian political landscape in the Occupied Territories. However, we must emphasize that the most accurate mechanism to determine political affiliations is free general elections.
1. Do you support the continuation of the current peace negotiations between the P.L.O and Israel?
West Bank & Gaza West Bank Gaza a) Yes 50.9% 51.6% 49.7% b) No 39.8% 36.3% 45.5% c) Not sure 09.3% 12.1% 04.8% 2. At this stage, do you think that there is a ned forfurther & close cooperation and coordination between the P.L.O and Jordan in the political and economic spheres?
a) Yes 64.4% 68.5% 58.0% b) No 22.4% 17.1% 30.8% c) Not sure 13.2% 14.4% 11.2% 3. As to the Arab economic boycott of Israel:
a) I don't support its lifting at all 42.5% 38.2% 49.4% b) I support its termination immediately 13.5% 13.3% 13.9% c) I support its termination, in the futur and depending on political and depening on political 44.0% 48.5% 36.7% 4. In your opinion, what is most important criterion to be taken into account in selection important officials for Palestinian institutions?
a) Religiosity 16.7% 17.6% 15.2% b) Professional competence/ specialization 58.1% 53.5% 65.7% c) Role in the national struggle. 15.8% 17.7% 12.9% d) Party affiliation 04.7% 06.6% 01.5% 5. Recently, there have calls for "collective leadership" in the P.L.O. What is your opinion?
a) I support these calls 66.7% 67.5% 56.6% b) I don't support these calls, but this is not the appropriate time to make them. 11.9% 10.9% 13.4% c) I don't support these calls 11.9% 10.9% 13.4% 6. Do you support the present coordination efforts of the "Group of 10" opposing the Palestinian-Israeli Agreement?
a) Yes 46.7% 41.3% 55.6% b) No 39.2% 41.3% 35.8% c) Not sure 14.1% 17.4% 08.6% 7. Do you think that the opposition "Group of 10" will be able to prevent the implementation of the Palestinian-israeli Agreement?
a) Yes 18.8% 19.5% 17.8% b) No 48.9% 46.0% 53.4% c) Not sure 32.3% 34.5% 28.8% 8. Will you participate in the general elections for the "Palestinian Council"of the Palestinian Interim Self-Government Authority?
a) Yes 64.9% 65.5% 64.1% b) No 23.2% 20.8% 26.8% c) Not sure 11.9% 13.7% 09.1% 9. If these elections were held today, you would vote for candidates affiliated with:
a) Hamas 14.7% 13.1% 17.3% b) DFLP 01.9% 02.2% 01.5% c) Islamic Jihad 03.8% 03.8% 03.8% D) Feda 01.8% 02.5% 00.5% e) Hizb El-Sha'b 02.5% 03.0% 01.6% f) Fateh 34.9% 34.2% 36.1% g) PFLP 08.4% 06.3% 11.8% h) Islamic Independents 04.8% 05.7% 03.3% I) Nationalist Independents 11.8% 13.7% 08.8% j) Other organization (Specify) 04.3% 03.5% 05.6% K) No one 11.1% 12.0% 09.7%
Political Affiliation by Area of Residence-West Bank
Nablus Tulkarm Jenin Jericho Ramallah Hebron Bethlehem Jerusalem Hamas 12.3% 14.0% 19.1% 16.1% 07.6% 18.0% 14.3% 03.8% DFLP 0.6% 01.5% 02.9% 03.2% 02.5% 01.8% 04.1% 02.9% I. Jihad 0.6% 02.2% ----- 03.2% 03.8% 10.8% 06.1% 01.9% Feda 0.6% 0.7% 01.5% 06.5% 0.6% 06.0% 05.1% 02.9% H.Sha'b 04.5% ----- ----- 06.5% 03.2% 03.0% 06.1% 04.8% Fateh 45.2% 33.8% 41.2% 45.2% 30.4% 24.6% 28.6% 32.7% PFLP 03.2% 03.7% 04.4% 03.2% 10.8% 06.6% 12.2% 04.8% Islamic Ind. 01.9% 05.9% 02.9% 03.2% 04.4% 10.2% 09.2% 06.7% other org. 02.0% 05.9% 07.4% 06.4% 06.3% -------- --------- 00.1% No one 17.5% 16.1% 09.6% -------- 13.3% 05.3% 04.1% 20.2% Nationalist Ind. 11.6% 16.2% 11.0% 06.5% 17.1% 13.7% 10.2% 18.3% Political Affiliation by "Electoral District"-Gaza Strip
North (1) Gaza (2) Gaza (3) Gaza (4) Middle (5) KhanYunis (6) South (7) Hamas 12.1% 11.1% 21.5% 18.0% 22.7% 18.9% 17.0% DFLP 02.0% 02.5% 02.5% --------- 01.1% -------- 02.0% I. Jihad 05.1% 01.2% 03.8% 03.6% 01.1% 07.5% 04.0% Feda ------- 03.7% -------- ------- -------- ----- ------- H. Sha'b 01.0% 01.2% 02.5% 02.5% 01.1% 01.3% 02.0% Fateh 36.4% 25.9% 41.8% 30.7% 30.7% 42.5% 44.0% PFLP 12.1% 16.0% 15.2% 04.8% 18.2% 10.0% 07.0% Islamic Independents 03.0% 07.4% 01.3% 02.5% 01.1% 05.0% 03.0% Nationalist Independents 05.1% 13.6% 05.1% 18.9% 10.3% 03.8% 06.0% Other Organizations 05.1% 12.4% 01.3% 08.3% 04.6% 03.7% 04.0% No one 18.1% 05.0% 05.0% 10.7% 08.1% 07.4% 11.0%
A- Place of Residence by Attitude Towards the peace Negotiations
Yes No Not Sure Town 50.9% 40.1% 09.0% Village 55.0% 34.5% 10.5% Refugee Camp 46.0% 46.0%` 08.0% B- Education By Attitude Towards the Peace Negotiations
Yes No Not Sure Up to 9-years 58.6% 29.9% 11.5% Up to 12-years 54.4% 38.2% 07.4% 2 years collage 44.3% 47.3% 08.4% University degree 47.7% 44.6% 07.7% Masters& PHDs 47.2 30.6% 22.2% C- Political Affiliation By Attitude Towarde Towards "Collective Leadership"
I Support I Don't Support I Support, But not Now Hamas 64.9% 22.2% 12.9% DFLP 80.6% 6.5% 12.9% I. Jihad 72.9% 16.9% 10.2% Feda 82.1% 7.1% 10.8% H. sha'b 79.5% 7.7% 12.8% Fateh 62.3% 10.8% 26.9% PFLP 74.6% 11.9% 13.5% Islamic Independents 67.1 8.2% 24.7% Nationalist Independents 70.4% 5.4% 24.2% Other Organizations 55.9% 14.7% 29.4% No one 65.9% 9.6% 29.4% D- political Affiliation By The Perceived Ability of the Opposition to Prevent Agreement Implementation
Yes No Not Sure Hamas 47.45 21.8% 30.8% DFLP 38.7% 25.8% 35.5% I. Jihad 31.7% 26.7% 41.6% Feda 07.1% 57.1% 35.8% H. Sha'b 12.5% 57.5% 30.3% Fateh 05.1% 37.9% 21.0% PFLP 39.8% 21.1% 39.1% Islamic Independents 19.2% 30.1% 50.7% Other Organizations 08.8% 63.2% 28.0% No one 16.4% 36.3% 47.3% Nationalist Independents 10.2% 50.3% 39.5% E. Political affiliation (University Students Between the Ages of 18 to 28) DOP Supporters
West Bank & Gaza West Bank Gaza Fateh 33.8% 38.7% 31.5% Feda 01.4% 02.7% ------- Hizb El-sha'b 02.7% 02.7% 02.7% Total 37.9% 44.1% 31.5% The Opposition
West Bank & Gaza West Bank Gaza Hamas 19.6% 12.0% 27.4% Islamic Jihad 07.4% 08.0% 06.8% PFLP 10.8% 09.3% 12.3% DFLP 00.7% ------ 01.4% Total 38.5% 29.3% 47.9% Independents & others
West Bank & Gaza West Bank Gaza Nationalist Ind. 07.4% 09.3% 05.5% Islamic Ind. 02.0% 02.7% 01.4% Others 02.0% ------- 04.1% No One 12.2% 14.6% 09.6% Total 13.6% 26.6% 20.6%
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