Among the more important events in the period immediately preceding this poll was an armed attack against Israeli soldiers on January 22, 1995. The attack resulted in the death of 21 Israelis and the wounding of more than 62, most of whom were soldiers. As a result, the Israeli government decided to tighten the closure of the West Bank and Gaza and prevent all Palestinians from entering Israel. The heightened closure is believed to have heightened economic hardship among Palestinians, especially since it corresponds with the month of Ramadan. An arrest campaign was waged against supporters of Islamist groups and a number of Islamic organizations were outlawed. The military raided the premises of a Palestinian college and arrested a number of students.

At the same time, Yitzhak Rabin, the prime minister of Israel, announced that Israel should proceed in a process of full and permanent separation between the West Bank and Israel.

The issue of land confiscation was the subject of protest marches and confrontations between Palestinians and Israelis. In the meanwhile, a Palestinian-Jordanian summit was convened in Jordan as representatives of the PNA and the Jordanian government signed a number of agreements.

Yassir Arafat and Shimon Peres met in the middle of January to discuss settlements, prisoners, and other issues. However, last month witnessed a lack of activity in negotiations as many on both sides called for suspending them.

The questionnaire was designed through consultations with experts. A pre-test involving fifty questionnaires was conducted in the Nablus area prior to the poll. The questionnaire instrument includes a large number of demographic variables as indicated in the section on sample distribution. During this poll, a question where respondents were asked to specify their religion was added to the demographic section. CPRS also added a question regarding marital status that had been used previously but dropped for a period. The section on unemployment that was added in the previous two polls remained in this questionnaire as well.

Household Sample Selection

SRU researchers adopted a multi-stage sample selection process. The process of sample selection began with the creation of lists of all locations in the West Bank and Gaza according to district, population size and distribution, and type of locality (city, town, village, and refugee camp). A simple random sample of locations to be surveyed was selected from these lists, as shown in Table 1. Fieldworkers and researchers created maps for these localities. These maps indicated the boundaries, main streets, and clusters of residential neighborhoods in these localities which were further divided into a number of sampling units (blocks) with each unit comprising an average of two hundred housing units. The sample units (blocks) to be surveyed were selected randomly.

Table 1

Sample Localities Selection

The Following table lists the localities that were included in the sample for this month.

District (Sample      Localities (Type)     District (Sample      Localities (Type)     
Size/ %)                                    Size/%)                                     
Nablus  (109/10%)     Nablus (C), Zouata    Tulkarm/Qalqilya      Burqin (V), 'Azoun    
                      (V), 'Aqraba (V),     (89/8.2%)             (T), Hableh (V),      
                      Shamaaliya (T),                             Tulkarm (C), Nur      
                      'Ain Beit al-Ma'                            Shams (RC)            
                      (RC)                                                              
Jenin (77/7.1%)       'Aja (V), Jenin       Jericho (20/1.2%)     Jericho (C)           
                      (C), Ya'bad (T),                                                  
                      Jenin (RC), Kufr                                                  
                      Dan (V)                                                           
Ramallah (105/9.6%)   Silwad (T), Beit      Hebron (119/10.9%)    Hebron (C), Dura      
                      'Anan (V), Beit                             (T), Halhoul (T),     
                      Laqiyyeh (V),                               al-'Aroub (RC),       
                      al-Bireh (C),                               al-Masoua' (T),       
                      Ramallah (C),                               Beit 'Auwa (V)        
                      al-Amari (RC)                                                     
Jerusalem (80/7.3%)   Old City,             Bethlehem (70/6.4%)   Bethlehem (C),        
                      as-Souahra (V),                             Tafoua' (V),          
                      Shu'fat (RC), at-Tur                        al-'Aziriyyeh (T),    
                                                                  Deheisheh (RC)        
Gaza North            Beit Hanoun (V),      Gaza City             al-Rimal al-Janubi,   
(100/9.2%)            Jabalya (RC),         (140/12.9%)           ad-Daraj, as-Shati,   
                      an-Nazlah (V)                               ash-Shijja'yah        
Gaza Middle           al-Boureij,            Gaza South           Rafah (C), Rafah      
(90/8.3%)             an-Nusseirat, Khan    (90/8.3%)             (RC)                  
                      Younis (RC), 'Absan                                               
                      al-Kbireh (V)                                                     

Households were selected based on a systematic sampling framework. For example, if the fieldworker estimated the number of houses in the sampling unit to be two hundred and is assigned ten interviews, the fieldworker divided the 200 by 10, obtaining 20. Therefore, the fieldworker would conduct the first interview in the 20th house, and the second in the 40th, and so on. Fieldworkers were asked to start their sample selection of housing units from a well-defined point in the area such as a post office, mosque, business, etc. They were asked to report on the direction of their sampling walks. Fieldworkers played an active role in drawing the maps for the localities in the sample and in estimating the number of houses in each block.

To select the individual within the selected household to be interviewed, fieldworkers had to flip a coin twice. The first flip was to choose gender of the respondent and the second was to choose whether the respondent is to be older or younger than forty years. When in the household, fieldworkers would conduct the interview with the person who has the characteristics that they selected in this manner.

We received 669 questionnaires from the West Bank and 420 from Gaza, for a total of 1089 interviews. Table 2 provides the reader with data on sample distribution for the present poll where the sample was selected based on household interviews.

(Expressed as a % of the total sample)

Area of Residence
West Bank "including Jerusalem" Gaza Strip		61.4% 38.6%	City Town Village Refugee Camps		42.1% 09.4% 20.4% 28.1
Age				Sex					Education
18-22 23-26 27-30 31-35 36-42 43-50 51+		15.4% 13.6% 14.6% 15.4% 12.5% 14.1% 14.4%		Males Females		44.2% 55.8%				Up to 9 years (elem./prep) Up to 12 years (Tawjihi) 2 year College University Degree	50.6% 32.2% 09.1% 08.1%
Refugee Status		Marital Status			Occupation
Ref. NonRef.	49.4 50.6	Single Married Divorced & Widowed		19.9% 77.0% 03.1%	Laborers Merchants Craftsmen Students Housewives Farmers Employees* Specialists** None Retired	12.0% 03.1% 07.5% 05.4% 46.6% 2.0% 07.0% 2.2% 12.8% 1.4%

* Employees: Schoolteacher, Government Employee, Nurse, Lower-level Company Employee, Secretary, etc.
** Specialists: University Teacher, Engineer, Doctor, Lawyer, Pharmacist, Executive, etc.

Data collectors have participated in a number of workshops where the goals of the poll were discussed. They were also lectured on household interviewing, confidence building, mapping, sampling techniques, survey methods, and scientific research. Four special training seminars for data collectors were conducted during this month, attended by a total of sixty-four fieldworkers. Training for data collection was conducted in the field where actual illustrations of the sample selection and interviewing techniques were conducted.

Data collectors worked in groups supervised by qualified researchers. CPRS researchers made random visits to interview stations and discussed the research process with data collectors. More than fifty percent of our data collectors were female, so as to ensure the representation of women in the sample. Data collectors were assigned a limited number of interviews (an average of 15 per day) to allow for careful interviewing.

Interviews took place primarily over a three day period (Thursday, Friday, and Saturday) and were conducted on a face-to-face basis. Household interviews resulted in a lower non-response rate, estimated at 7%. Some respondents, we believe, were reluctant to state their political views out of fear or disinterest in the present political factions .

Data were processed through the use of SPSS, a computer package that is able to detect illogical answers and other inconsistencies. The margin of error for this poll is less than 3%.

       Refugee Camp         Village/Town                City                        
           58%              56%                         43%                         

It is known that the refugee camps suffer from a bad economic situation more than the other areas since the lack of economic infrastructure in the camps leads to more dependency on work in Israeli markets that became cut off from them due to the heightened closure.

Unemployment is also spread throughout age groups, as shown in Table 4. Previous poll results indicated that the younger respondents were more likely to be unemployed. However, the latest poll reveals the effect of the heightened closure on all age groups.

Table 4

Unemployment by Age

18-22 years                48%                        
23-26 years                55%                        
27-30 years                41%                        
31-35 years                44%                        
36-42 years                60%                        
43-50 years                63%                        
51-64                      35%                        

The largest percentage of the unemloyed is comprised of men as there are more men in the labor force. However, if we compare the unemployment rates among men and women, we will find that the percentage is higher for women, as shown in Table 5. (It should be reiterated here that we are only including women and men who are wanting to work and actively seeking work in the unemployment rates. Therefore, the higher percentage for women would not be a function of more women choosing to stay home.)

Table 5

Unemployment by Gender

           Men             Women                      
           49%             60%                        

The problem of unemployment is also more widespread among married respondents, who have more committments, than among single respondents, which intensifies the severity of the unemployment problem among Palestinians. (See Table 6)

Table 6

Unemployment by Marital Status

         Married           Single                     
           53%             45%                        

The poll results show that there is a relationship between educational attainment and unemployment (where as education increases the percentage of unemployment decreases) which further intensifies poverty and the existing differences in society and leads to a large extent to a lowering of the standard of living, particularly among laborers, farmers, and craftspeople. (See Table 7).

Table 7

Unemployment by Education

9 years or less            60%                        
10-12 years                53%                        
2 year college             43%                        
University degree(s)       33%                        

It should be emphasized that while interviews are conducted in households, and therefore would seem to favor people who are not working, the days and hours of polling are chosen in such a way as to correct for this. Thursday interviews are conducted only after 11 a.m, since many people leave work early on this day. Friday and Saturday are usual weekly days off, Friday for workers in the territories, and Saturday for workers from the territories who work in Israel during times when permits to enter Israel are issued and honored.

Researchers at CPRS are currently studying the details of this topic and the research findings will be published later this year.

                     Yes %                No %                 No Opinion %         
18-22                       51.2          30.7                 18.1                 
23-26                       49.3          33.6                 17.1                 
27-30                       43.3          36.9                 19.7                 
31-35                       52.4          30.1                 17.5                 
36-42                       52.6          23.7                 23.7                 
43-50                       52.6          27.0                 20.4                 
51+                         57.7          26.3                 16.0                 

Table 9

Attitude Towards Jordanian-Palestinian Agreement by Education

                            Yes %         No %                 No Opinion %         
9 years or less             49.1          26.5                 24.4                 
10-12 years                 53.9          30.0                 16.1                 
2 year college              59.2          32.7                 08.1                 
Univ. degree(s)             48.0          49.5                 02.5                 

There is also a relationship between political affiliation and view of the agreement, where supporters of Fateh and Feda more than any other group believe that the recent agreement will end the disputes between the two sides. (See Table 10)

Table 10

Attitude Towards Jordanian-Palestinian Agreement by Political Affiliation

                     Yes %                No %                 No Opinion %         
PPP                         43.5          43.5                 13.0                 
Hamas                       37.4          41.9                 20.6                 
Fateh                       61.7          24.1                 14.2                 
Islamic Jihad               43.2          37.8                 18.9                 
DFLP                        41.7          41.7                 16.7                 
PFLP                        43.6          46.2                 10.3                 
Feda                        66.7          ---                  33.3                 
Islamic Inds                35.0          50.0                 15.0                 
Nationalist Inds            52.3          34.1                 13.6                 
Others                      50.7          30.1                 19.2                 
No One                      35.6          25.2                 39.3                 

                     Yes %                No %                 No Opinion %         
9 years or less             14.7          79.8                 05.5                 
10-12 years                 13.6          82.9                 03.5                 
2 year college              12.2          82.7                 05.1                 
Univ. degree(s)             13.1          83.8                 03.1                 

Table 12

Attitude Towards Continuing Negotiations by Age

                            Yes %         No %                 No Opinion %         
18-22                       12.7          86.1                 01.2                 
23-26                       15.0          83.7                 01.3                 
27-30                       15.8          79.7                 04.4                 
31-35                       13.9          79.4                 06.7                 
36-42                       15.0          82.0                 03.0                 
43-50                       08.6          86.1                 05.3                 
51+                         18.2          72.1                 09.7                 

Opposition to continuing the negotiations if settlements continue to expand is not restricted to the supporters of the opposition factions; it also includes supporters of Fateh and Feda. (See Table 13)

Table 13

Attitude Towards Continuing Negotiations by Political Affiliation

                     Yes %                No %                 No Opinion %         
PPP                         04.3          95.7                 ---                  
Hamas                       07.1          90.4                 02.5                 
Fateh                       19.3          78.3                 02.4                 
Islamic Jihad               05.4          91.9                 02.7                 
DFLP                        16.7          83.3                 ---                  
PFLP                         ---          100                  ---                  
Feda                        16.7          66.7                 16.6                 
Islamic Inds.               15.0          80.0                 05.0                 
Nationalist Inds.           11.4          79.5                 09.1                 
Others                      12.3          80.8                 06.9                 
No One                      11.2          74.6                 14.2                 

                     Israeli Acceptance   Collective           Not Sure %           
                     %                    Punishment %                              
9 years or less             13.9          64.6                 21.5                 
10-12 years                 15.3          66.2                 18.5                 
2 year college              21.4          57.1                 21.5                 
Univ. degree(s)             24.0          54.5                 21.5                 

Men are more likely than women to view the idea of "separation" as the beginning of Israeli acceptance of the establishment of a Palestinian state. Also, supporters of Fateh more than supporters of other groups view this idea in the same way, where 21% of them choose the beginning of acceptance option, joined by 10.9 from supporters of Hamas, and 18.2 from nationalist independents. (See Table 15).

Table 15

Attitude Towards "Separation" by Political Affiliation

                     Israeli Acceptance   Collective           Not Sure %           
                     %                    Punishment %                              
PPP                         13.0          65.2                 21.7                 
Hamas                       10.9          73.7                 15.4                 
Fateh                       21.2          58.8                 20.0                 
Islamic Jihad               02.7          75.7                 21.6                 
DFLP                        25.0          50.0                 25.0                 
PFLP                        10.3          79.5                 10.3                 
Feda                         ---          83.3                 16.7                 
Islamic Inds.               10.0          85.0                 05.0                 
Nationalist Inds.           18.2          72.7                 09.1                 
Others                      13.9          66.7                 19.4                 
No One                      07.4          60.3                 32.4                 

                     Yes %                No %                 No Opinion %         
9 years or less             58.9          27.6                 13.5                 
10-12 years                 53.2          34.8                 12.0                 
2 year college              53.1          39.8                 07.1                 
University degrees          49.2          42.1                 09.7                 

Also, older respondents are more likely than younger ones to believe that this peace process will lead to the establishment of a state. (See Table 17)

Table 17

Expectations of Establishment of a State (as a Result of Peace Process) by Age

                     Yes %                No %                 No Opinion %         
18-22                       51.2          37.3                 11.4                 
23-26                       49.0          42.9                 08.2                 
27-30                       53.8          34.2                 12.0                 
31-35                       56.0          34.9                 09.0                 
36-42                       60.7          24.4                 14.8                 
43-50                       61.2          25.0                 13.8                 
51+                         56.4          28.8                 14.7