Armed Attacks, Negotiations, "Separation", Elections, Unemployement, and Palestinian-Jordanian Relations, February 2-4, 1995
Armed OperationsA total of 46% of the respondents expressed their support for armed operations against Israeli targets, 33.5% opposed these operations, and 20.5% of them had no opinion on the subject. In November of 1994, a similar question was asked in a CPRS poll, and 34.4% expressed opposition to armed operations. The November question divided support into three options: support for armed attacks in the West Bank and Israel, support in the West Bank only, and support in Israel only. The total of these three options was 56.6%. The current support for armed operations is higher in the Gaza Strip than in the West Bank, whereas the opposition to these acts is the same in both areas. The highest level of support for armed operations is in Gaza Middle (62.2%) and the lowest is in Jericho (35%). (See Table 18).
Table 18
Attitude Towards Armed Operations by Area of Residence
Support % Oppose % No Opinion %
Nablus 49.5 27.5 23.0
Tulkarm 37.1 37.1 25.8
Jenin 39.5 34.2 26.3
Jericho 35.0 50.0 15.0
Ramallah 39.4 26.9 33.7
Hebron 47.5 34.7 17.8
Bethlehem 44.9 36.2 18.8
Jerusalem 48.8 38.8 12.4
Gaza North 45.0 35.0 20.0
Gaza City 46.0 37.4 16.6
Gaza Middle 62.2 27.8 10.0
Gaza South 47.2 30.3 22.5
Also, support for armed operations is higher than average among the educated, where 51% of those with university degrees expressed their support for these operations, compared with 44.4% of those with only a primary education. (See Table 19)Table 19
Attitude Towards Armed Operations by Education
Support % Oppose % No Opinion %
9 years or less 44.4 35.6 20.0
10-12 years 47.1 30.9 22.0
2 year college 45.4 35.1 19.5
university degrees 51.0 28.0 21.0
Support for the operations decreases among older respondents, where 40.9% of those older than 50 years said that they support these operations, compared with 54% of those in the 18-22 age group. (See Table 20).Table 20
Attitude Towards Armed Operations by Age
Yes % No % No Opinion %
18-22 51.2 33.1 15.7
23-26 53.4 23.3 23.3
27-30 44.9 36.7 18.4
31-35 42.7 37.2 20.1
36-42 42.5 35.1 22.4
43-50 44.7 29.6 25.7
51+ 40.9 39.6 19.5
Also, support for these operations is higher among single respondents (52%) than among those who are married (44%). Support for armed operations comes to a large extent from opposition factions; however, it is also found among Fateh and Feda supporters. (See Table 21)Table 21
Attitude Towards Armed Operations by Political Affiliation
Support % Oppose % No Opinion %
PPP 30.4 52.2 17.4
Hamas 71.8 10.9 17.3
Fateh 39.7 42.1 18.2
Islamic Jihad 62.2 24.3 13.5
DFLP 33.3 41.7 25.0
PFLP 74.4 15.4 10.3
Feda 33.3 16.7 50.0
Islamic Inds. 55.0 35.0 10.0
Nationalist Inds. 50.0 20.5 29.5
Other 41.1 35.6 23.3
No One 32.8 34.3 32.9
Elections for the PNA PresidentThe proposed electoral law calls for the direct election of the Palestinian president. Therefore, the poll included a question on this topic, asking Palestinians to choose from a list of Palestinian personalities. These included: Yassir Arafat (chairman of the PLO and PNA, head of Fateh), Ahmed Yassin (responsible for the largest of the Islamic movements), Hayder Abdel Shafi (independent nationalist), and George Habash (General Secretary of the PFLP). Respondents were also given the choice of "other" and asked to specify their choice in this case. The results of this poll were in line to a great extent with the two previous polls, in November and December of 1994. We find that Arafat has the highest percentage of support among the four, and especially in the Gaza Strip. He is followed by Ahmed Yassin, Hayder Abdel Shafi, and George Habash, in that order. However, as we notice from Table 22, support for Yassir Arafat has increased continuously during the past three months. This rise might be surprising as the peace process was stumbling in the last two months. However, it is possible that Palesitnians are blaiming the Israelis for the failure of the negotiations and the lack of achievement on the ground. It is also possible that the expansion of settlements and the participation of some of the leadership in protests against this expansion have led to the strengthening of internal solidarity among Palestinians and sympathy for the Palestinian leadership. The rise in Arafat's popularity has been especially noticeable in the West Bank.
Table 22
Comparison of PNA President Election Results
Arafat % Yassin % Abdel Shafi % Habash % Other %
Nov 1994 44.2 19.7 08.9 06.8 20.4
Dec 1994 48.5 18.4 08.6 05.8 18.7
Feb 1995 53.4 14.6 10.0 03.6 18.4
Support for Arafat comes from all areas and it is noticeable that Arafat obtained 50.5% of the votes in Hebron, where in the last two months he did not have higher than 30%. The significant rise in Arafat's support in Hebron is consistent with a similar rise in support for Fateh in the area (See Political Affiliation below). As for Jerusalem, he obtained 37.2% of the votes. (See Table 23)Table 23
Election of PNA President by Area of Residence
Abdel Shafi % Habash % Arafat % Yassin % Other %
Nablus 08.3 00.9 61.1 12.0 17.7
Tulkarm 11.2 02.2 49.4 12.4 24.8
Jenin 05.3 02.6 60.5 15.8 15.8
Jericho 40.0 05.0 50.0 --- 05.0
Ramallah 13.5 01.9 44.2 09.6 30.8
Hebron 08.1 03.6 50.5 21.6 16.2
Bethlehem 11.8 11.8 45.6 13.2 17.6
Jerusalem 19.2 03.8 37.2 14.1 25.6
Gaza N. 10.2 04.1 55.1 13.3 17.3
Gaza City 06.5 02.9 59.7 18.0 12.9
Gaza Mid. 06.7 05.6 53.3 20.0 14.4
Gaza S. 05.6 03.4 65.2 11.2 14.6
As for Ahmed Yassin, his support comes to a large extent from the areas of Hebron, Gaza City, and Gaza middle. Also, his support is higher among women (17.5%) than among men (11%) and is higher in the towns and camps than in the villages and cities. The majority of Yassin's votes come from supporters of Islamic groups, where Arafat receives votes from Fateh, Feda, PPP, and nationalist independents. (See Table 24)Table 24
Election of PNA President by Political Affiliation
Abdel Shafi % Habash % Arafat % Yassin % Other %
PPP 34.8 --- 47.8 08.7 08.7
Hamas 05.3 02.6 15.8 63.8 12.5
Fateh 06.8 00.4 83.3 02.4 07.1
Is. Jihad 10.8 --- 16.2 45.9 27.0
DFLP 16.7 16.7 08.3 16.7 41.7
PFLP 10.3 74.4 10.3 02.6 02.6
Feda 33.3 --- 66.7 --- ---
Is. Inds 10.0 --- 25.0 40.0 25.0
Nat'l Inds. 36.4 --- 36.4 --- 27.2
Other 11.1 01.4 31.9 09.7 45.8
No One 12.3 00.8 25.4 06.9 54.6
As is the case with Arafat, support for Yassin is higher among the less educated respondents. (See Table 25)
Table 25
Election of PNA President by Education
Abdel Shafi Habash % Arafat % Yassin % Other %
%
9 or less 05.6 02.1 57.4 14.8 20.1
10-12 14.4 05.2 50.4 16.4 13.5
2 year 14.4 04.1 53.6 09.3 18.6
college
University 14.4 07.7 41.5 11.6 24.8
degrees
With regard to Hayder Abdel Shafi, the areas of his highest support are Jericho, Ramallah, Jerusalem, and Bethlehem. His support among respondents from cities is at 13.5% and his support increases among the more educated respondents. He enjoys relatively high support from supporters of PPP, Feda, and nationalist independents. As for George Habash, most of his support comes from the area of Bethlehem, and is higher among the younger respondents than the older. His support increases with education and reaches 75% among supporters of PFLP.
Vice PresidentCPRS polled respondents concerning their choice from among a number of personalities for vice-president of the PNA. For the purposes of comparison, CPRS asked this question in December of 1994 and this month. Despite the fact that the list of names is limited and does not reflect the range of Palestinian politics, as it reflects only mainstream tendencies, the results do give a meaningful indication of the relative popularity of these individuals as potential leaders. The names listed and their total percentages were as follows, with percentages from this month first and from December 1994 second: Faisal Husseini (15.2%--17.3%), Nabil Sha'ath (12.6%--10.4%), Farouk Qadoumi (11.8%--16.3%), Hanan Ashrawi (9.9%--11.5%), and Mahmoud Abbas (6.7%--5.5%). Support for Husseini and Qadoumi comes more from the West Bank than the Gaza Strip, the opposite of Sha'ath and Abbas, who have more support in Gaza than in the West Bank. As for Ashrawi, her support comes equally from both areas. In comparison with the previous poll, we find that Husseini has maintained the highest percentage of support. Qadoumi has reached in this poll, a percentage of support comparable to that of Sha'ath's. There was no noticeable difference in the percentages of support for Ashrawi and Abbas. It is noticeable that 43.8% of respondents answered "other" or "no opinion." The majority of respondents choosing these options are either supporters of political groups other than Fateh or independents.
ElectionsMost respondents (79%) chose general political elections as the preferred means to select the members of the PISGA Council. A further 17.3% chose appointments, whether by the PLO leadership or by the leadership of the various factions on a quota basis. As for participation in elections, 77.1% of the respondents declared that they intend to participate in the elections.
Political AffiliationThe popularity of Fateh increased this month to 49.5% for the first time, compared with 43.1% last month. This increase comes particularly from the West Bank, where support for Fateh last month was at 41.5%, and reached 49% this month. The increase comes partly from respondents declaring themselves last month as "independents." The popularity of PFLP has dropped from 6.7% to 3.6%. The drop was particularly apparent in Gaza, where the group's popularity fell from 9% to 4.5%. It should be remembered that previous poll results have indicated a drop in support for PFLP, where it was 9% in November of 1993, 8.4% in January 1994, and 6.6% in May of 1994. There was also a slight decline in the percentage of support for Hamas, from 16.6% to 14.4%. There is no difference between the West Bank and Gaza in the popularity of Hamas. As for Islamic Jihad, its support did not change during this month, following the Beit Lid suicide attack. We notice a drop in the support for "independents, " "others," and "no one" in this poll (25.3%) from the previous poll (28%).
Current poll results confirm that support for Fateh is widespread in the areas of the north of the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and Jericho, but there is a suprising increase in its popularity in the area of Hebron. Fateh's average support in Hebron had been 30% in all the previous polls, but this poll indicates that it has increased to 49.6%, as shown in Table 26. One reason for the change can be found in the important change in the demographic characteristics of the Hebron sample in this poll. Compare to December 1994, the February 1995 sample shows a drastic decrease of resopndents with high education. The rate of the "less educated" was 58% in December compared with 80.5% in February. Also the percentage of women has increased from 38% in December to 53% in February. The rise came mainly from an increase in housewives with less education. The increase in the percentage of the less educated, especially women, led to an increase in support for Fateh. With regard to Hamas, it maintains its large support in the areas of Hebron, Gaza middle, Gaza City, and Jenin. PFLP maintains high support in the area of Bethlehem. (See Table 26)
Table 26
Political Affiliation by Place of Residence
PPP % Hamas % Fate Is. DFLP % PFLP % Feda % Is. Nat Other No
h % Jihad % Ind %. Ind % % one %
Nablus 02.8 17.6 52.8 00.9 00.9 00.9 00.9 01.9 04.6 06.5 10.2
T'lkrm 04.5 18.0 46.1 02.2 --- 01.1 --- 02.2 07.9 05.6 12.4
Jenin --- 15.8 60.5 02.6 03.9 --- --- 01.3 --- 06.6 09.2
Jericho 05.0 05.0 55.0 10.0 --- 05.0 --- --- 10.0 --- 10.0
Ram.'h 01.9 11.5 42.3 02.9 01.0 02.9 --- 01.0 02.9 10.6 23.1
Hebron 01.7 17.1 49.6 05.1 --- 02.6 00.9 04.3 03.4 03.4 12.0
B'hem --- 10.1 49.3 01.4 --- 11.6 01.4 04.3 05.8 04.3 11.6
J'salem 05.0 07.5 42.5 05.0 05.0 03.8 --- 01.3 03.8 08.8 17.5
Gaza N 02.0 11.0 51.0 05.0 01.0 04.0 --- 03.0 02.0 13.0 08.0
Gaza C 02.1 15.7 52.1 02.9 00.7 04.3 --- --- 05.0 07.1 10.0
GazaM 01.1 21.3 49.4 01.1 01.1 05.6 01.1 02.2 04.5 03.4 09.0
Gaza S 01.1 12.4 47.2 06.7 --- 04.5 02.2 --- 03.4 05.6 16.9
N: North; C: City; M: Middle; S: SouthThe current poll results, as in previous polls, indicate that there is a relationship between gender and political affiliation, where support for Fateh is higher among men than women, the opposite of that for Islamic groups (Hamas and Islamic Jihad). (See Table 27)
Table 27
Political Affiliation by Gender
PPP % Hamas % Fateh Is. DFLP % PFLP% Feda Is. Nat O'ers NoOne %
% Jihad % Inds Inds % %
% %
Men 01.7 11.8 51.9 01.7 01.3 05.3 00.8 02.5 05.3 08.6 09.2
Women 02.5 16.6 47.6 04.7 01.0 02.3 00.3 01.3 03.2 05.3 15.1
Total West Bank Gaza
*Unemployment rate 51.0% 48.0% 57.0%
1. Do you believe that Arafat's recent visit to Jordan and the signing of the agreement between the Jordanians and Palestinians will end the disputes between Jordan and the Palestinian Authority?
a. Yes 51.4% 47.1% 58.3% b. No 29.7% 33.6% 23.6% c. No opinion 18.9% 19.3% 18.1%
2. Do you believe that the peace process that began with the Oslo Agreement will lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip?
a. Yes 55.3% 50.8% 62.4% b. No 32.6% 37.2% 25.2% c. No opinion 12.1% 12.0% 12.4%
3. I believe that the idea of "separation" suggested recently by Rabin mainly indicates...
a. the beginning of Israeli acceptance 15.8% 16.8% 14.1% of the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. b. retaliatory and vindictive collective 64.3% 66.6% 60.6% punishment. c. not sure 19.9% 16.6% 25.3%
4. Do you support continuing the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations while settlements continue to expand?
a. Yes 14.1% 16.2% 11.8% b. No 81.3% 78.8% 85.4% c. No opinion 04.6% 50.0% 03.8%
5. With regard to armed attacks against Israeli targets, I...
a. Support them 46.0% 43.8% 49.5% b. Oppose them 33.5% 33.7% 33.3% c. No opinion 20.5% 22.5% 17.2%
6. In a statement released by the "Local Government and Elections Commission" it was reported that the proposed Palestinian electoral law will state that the head of the Palestinian Authority will be elected directly by the people. If a separate election for the head of the National Authority takes place, and the following nominate themselves, I will choose...
a. Hayder Abdel Shafi 10.0% 11.8% 07.2% b. George Habash 03.6% 03.5% 03.8% c. Yassir Arafat 53.4% 50.2% 58.4% d. Ahmed Yassin 14.6% 13.8% 15.9% e. Other (Specify) 18.4% 12.7% 14.7%
7. In your opinion, the best way to choose the members of the "Palestinian Council" of the Palestinian Interim Self-Governing Authority is...
a. Appointment by PLO leadership 12.5% 09.7% 16.9% b. Appointment by political groups 04.8% 03.0% 07.6% on a quota basis. c. Political Elections 79.0% 82.5% 73.5% d. Other 03.7% 04.8% 02.0%
8. Will you participate in general political elections to choose the members of the PISGA Council?
a. Yes 77.1% 76.3% 78.3% b. No 13.8% 14.1% 13.4% c. Not sure 09.1% 09.6% 08.3%
9. If given the chance to choose the vice president of the Palestinian National Authority, you would choose...
a. Specify (__________) 14.6% 16.7% 11.3% b. Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) 06.7% 04.5% 10.1% c. Hanan Ashrawi 09.9% 09.9% 09.9% d. Nabil Sha'ath 12.6% 08.6% 19.0% e. Farouk Qadumi (Abu Lutfa) 11.8% 13.3% 09.4% f. Faisal Husseini 15.2% 17.5% 11.6% g. No Opinion 29.2% 29.5% 28.7%
10. If elections were to be held today, and you decided to participate, you would vote for candidates affiliated with:
a. PPP 02.1% 02.4% 01.7% b. Hamas 14.4% 14.0% 15.1% c. Fateh 49.5% 49.0% 50.2% d. Islamic Jihad 03.4% 03.2% 03.8% e. DFLP 01.1% 01.4% 00.7% f. PFLP 03.6% 03.0% 04.5% g. Feda 00.6% 00.5% 00.7% h. Islamic independents 01.9% 02.3% 01.2% i. Nationalist independents 04.1% 04.2% 03.8% j. Other (specify) 06.8% 06.3% 07.4% k. None of the above 12.5% 13.7% 10.9%
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