This is the seventeenth public opinion poll conducted by the Survey Research Unit (SRU) at the Center for Palestine Research and Studies. The following topics are covered in this poll: elections, negotiations, strike, refugee camps, and criticism of the PNA. CPRS has been conducting regular public opinion polls to document an important phase in the history of the Palestinian people and to record the reactions of the Palestinian community with regard to current political events. CPRS does not adopt political positions and does not tolerate attempts to influence the conclusions reached or published for political motives. CPRS is committed to providing a scholarly contribution to analysis and objective study and to publishing the results of all our studies and research. Poll results provide a vital resource for the community and for researchers needing statistical information and analysis. The polls give members of the community opportunity to voice their opinion and to seek to influence decision makers on issues of concern to them. In a broader sense, CPRS strives to promote the status of scientific research in Palestine. SRU disseminates the results of the polls through a number of means, including its community outreach program where the results are shared and discussed with a large number of Palestinians. This poll focused on the Tulkarm refugee camp in an effort to understand the views of the residents concerning the issues and to test the effects of fieldworker appearance on respondent answers. (See Focus on Tulkarm Refugee Camp).Here are the main findings of this poll:
- -A total of 50% believe that it is possible to criticize the PNA without fear.
- -Palestinian radio is the first choice of West Bank residents, and competes with Israeli radio for first choice in Gaza. Jordanian radio and Monte Carlo radio are competing for third choice.
- -A total of 65% support continuing the negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians.
- -Most support abolishing the strike on the ninth of each month or transforming it to a yearly occasion, and only 23% support keeping it as it is.
- -Arafat obtained 55% of the vote and support for Fateh is at 49%.
- -A total of 58% will participate in the elections, if the opposition calls for a boycott.
- -A total of 71% declared themselves ready to elect a qualified woman.
- -Only 28% believe that the general political elections will be fair and 23% believe that they will be somewhat fair.
- -A total of 21.6% want to keep the refugee camps as they are until a final agreement is reached concerning them, while 47.3% support keeping them with improvements in living conditions. Only 25% support transferring residents to new housing projects.
Enclosed are the results of the current public opinion poll that has been conducted in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip (see Appendix) and analysis of the results.
- General Background
- Methodology
- Sample Distribution
- Data Collection
- Data Analysis
- Results
- Unemployment
- Radio Stations
- Criticism of the PNA Without Fear
- The Negotiations
- Refugee Camps in the West Bank and Gaza Strip
- Strike on the 9th of Each Month
- Fairness of Elections
- Boycott of Elections
- Participation of Women in Elections
- President of the PNA
- Political Affiliation
- Focus on Tulkarm Refugee Camp
- Results
- Effect of Researcher Appearance on the Respondent
- Appendix
Among the events preceding this poll was the decision of the Israeli Housing Ministry to confiscate 520 dunams of Palestinian land in Arab Jerusalem to build housing projects, which was the largest land confiscation in East Jerusalem in 15 years. Palestinians, Arab governments, and other governments protested the action on the grounds that it violated international law and the Declaration of Principles since Jerusalem is a final status issue. Palestinians also protested the American stand in the UN concerning the issue. Meanwhile, Palestinian and Israeli talks continued concerning the extension of Palestinian control to the rest of the West Bank. The one-year anniversary of the establishment of the Palestinian Authority was observed during this period. In Sheikh Radwan in the Gaza Strip on April 3, an explosion occurred, killing six people and leading to controversy over the parties responsible. As a result of the explosion, Hamas and Islamic Jihad each carried out an attack on Israeli targets in the Gaza Strip on April 9 and the Palestinian police arrested a number of the supporters of the two factions. The PNA requested that all illegal arms be relinquished by May 12. Military courts were established, resulting in controversy. In Hebron on April 16, three members of Hamas were killed by Israeli military. At the same time, there was talk about the possibility of reconciliation between PNA and Hamas and Islamic Jihad. In this period, a new Palestinian political group was established headed by Hayder Abdel Shafi.
The questionnaire was designed through consultations with experts. A pre-test involving fifty questionnaires was conducted in the Nablus area prior to the poll. The questionnaire instrument includes a large number of demographic variables as indicated in the section on sample distribution. A total of 29 variables and questions are included in this questionnaire. The section on unemployment that was added recently remained in this questionnaire.Household Sample Selection
SRU researchers adopted a multi-stage sample selection process. The process of sample selection began with the creation of lists of all locations in the West Bank and Gaza according to district, population size and distribution, and type of locality (city, town, village, and refugee camp). A simple random sample of locations to be surveyed was selected from these lists, as shown in Table 1. Fieldworkers and researchers created maps for these localities. These maps indicated the boundaries, main streets, and clusters of residential neighborhoods in these localities which were further divided into a number of sampling units (blocks) with each unit comprising an average of two hundred housing units. The sample units (blocks) to be surveyed were selected randomly.
Table 1
Sample Localities Selection*
The Following table lists the localities that were included in the sample for this month. The percentages reflect the weighting for the disproportionately large Tulkarm Camp sample.
District (Sample Localities District (Sample Localities
Size/ %) Size/%)
Nablus (116/10.3%) Nablus, al-A'yin Tulkarm/Qalqilya Tulkarm city and camp,
Camp, Hawara, Borqa, (246/8%)*See al-Zawiya, Zeita, Anabta
Beita introduction and
page #17 for
explanation of
Tulkarm sample size
Jenin (83/7.5%) Jenin, Jenin Camp, Jericho (25/2.2%) Jericho
al-Zababda, Zibdeh,
Arabeh
Ramallah (104/19.3%) al-Bireh, Ramallah, Hebron (124/11.1%) Hebron, , al-Shiyukh,
al-Jib, 'Aroura, Beit Om'ar, Dir Samit,
Beit Laqia, Qalandia al-Aroub
Camp
Jerusalem (84/7.5%) Shu'fat Camp, Bethlehem (74/6.6%) Bethlehem, Deheisheh,
Silwan, Sheikh Artaas, Beit Faj'ar,
Jarrar, al-Souwana Beit Jala
Gaza North (69/6.2%) Beit Hanoun, Jabalya Gaza City (153/13.7%) al-Rimal, ad-Daraj,
Camp and Village as-Shati, al-Sheik
Radhwan, al-Tofaah,
al-Shoja'aya
Gaza Middle Nusseirat Camp, Dir Gaza South (66/5.9%) Rafah city and camp
(127/11.3%) Balah Camp, Bureij
Camp, 'Absaan
Kabira, Beni
Suhaila, Khan Younis
Camp
*The fieldworkers conducted interviews in 60 cities, villages, and camps where over 145 sampling units were used.
Households were selected based on a systematic sampling framework. For example, if the fieldworker estimated the number of houses in the sampling unit to be two hundred and is assigned ten interviews, the fieldworker divided the 200 by 10, obtaining 20. Therefore, the fieldworker would conduct the first interview in the 20th house, and the second in the 40th, and so on. Fieldworkers were asked to start their sample selection of housing units from a well-defined point in the area such as a post office, mosque, business, etc. They were asked to report on the direction of their sampling walks. Fieldworkers played an active role in drawing the maps for the localities in the sample and in estimating the number of houses in each block.To select the individual within the selected household to be interviewed, fieldworkers had to flip a coin twice. The first flip was to choose gender of the respondent and the second was to choose whether the respondent was to be older or younger than forty years. When in the household, fieldworkers would conduct the interview with the person who has the characteristics that they selected in this manner.
We received 856 questionnaires from the West Bank and 415 from Gaza, for a total of 1271 interviews. In the Tulkarm Camp area, we interviewed 175 Palestinians. Since the Tulkarm Camp sample is disproportionately large, it was weighted (in this case, deflated) when included in the totals. Table 2 provides the reader with data on sample distribution for the present poll. The percentages reflect the weighting for the Tulkarm Camp sample.
(Expressed as a % of the total sample)*Specialists (University teacher, engineer, doctor, lawyer, pharmacist, excecutive).
Sample Distribution May 1995 Education May 1995 West Bank
Gaza Strip62.7 (63.0)
37.3 (37.0)Up to 9 yrs.
10-12 years
Two-Yr. Coll.
University
Degree(s)50.2 (53.0)
31.3 (27.0)
10.0 (20***)
08.5Muslim
Christian95.7 (95.5)
04.3 (04.5)Male
Female48.2 (49.0)
51.8 (51.0)City
Town/Village
Refugee Camp35.1
37.7
27.3Refugee
Non-Refugee46.6 (42.0)
53.4 (58.0)Single
Married
Divorced or
Widowed20.8
84.9
04.3Age
18-22
23-26
27-30
31-35
36-42
43-50
Over 5017.0 (20.1)
14.3 (13.9)
11.6 (13.2)
15.4 (12.1)
14.9 (11.5)
11.7 (10.5)
15.1 (19.0)Occupation
Laborers
Craftsmen
Housewives
Specialists*
Employees**
Merchants
Students
Farmers
Retired
None
09.5
09.4
40.8
01.8
10.5
05.6
06.8
03.2
02.8
09.6
**Employees(school teacher, government employee, nurse, lower-level company employee.
Population Estimates are based on the "Statistical Abstract of Israel" (1993) and FAFO (1993).
*** for all post-secondary degrees.
Our data collectors have participated in a number of workshops where the goals of the poll were discussed. They were also lectured on household interviewing, confidence building, mapping, sampling techniques, survey methods, and scientific research. Four special training seminars for data collectors were conducted during this month, attended by a total of sixty-four fieldworkers. Training for data collection was conducted in the field where actual illustrations of the sample selection and interviewing techniques were conducted.Data collectors worked in groups supervised by qualified researchers. CPRS researchers made random visits to interview stations and discussed the research process with data collectors. More than fifty percent of our data collectors were female, so as to ensure the representation of women in the sample. Data collectors were assigned a limited number of interviews (an average of 18 per day) to allow for careful interviewing.
Interviews took place primarily over a three day period (Thursday, Friday, and Saturday) after 1:00 pm in order to obtain a more representative sample and were conducted on a face-to-face basis. Household interviews resulted in a lower non-response rate, estimated at 7%. Some respondents, we believe, were reluctant to state their political views out of fear or disinterest in the present political factions .
Data were processed through the use of SPSS, a computer package that is able to detect illogical answers and other inconsistencies. The margin of error for this poll is less than 3%.
UnemploymentThe current poll results show that the percentage of unemployment is 36%, which is the average since the month of March. We notice, as shown in Table 3, that the percentage of unemployment reached higher than 50% as a result of the closure (February), and was within the average at other times. There is still a clear difference between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, where it is 27% in the West Bank and 39% in Gaza. We find that the highest percentage of unemployment is located in the Gaza Strip, in areas outside of Gaza City itself, areas where the refugee camps are mainly located. Unemployment in the middle of the West Bank (Jerusalem and Ramallah) is the least at 10%. The percentage of unemployment in the camps is higher than other areas and the percentage among refugees is 10% higher than among non- refugees. Unemployment is particularly widespread among the 18-30 age group, where it is at 41%, compared with 25% among older respondents. Despite the fact that men are a higher percentage of the labor force, and therefore the unemployed, the percentage among women is higher than that for men. While a large percentage of the educated suffer from unemployment, the least educated are more affected by the problem, perhaps because of the dependence on work in Israel.
Table 3:
Unemployment Demographics
DEC. 1994 % FEB. 1995 % MAR. 1995 % MAY 1995 % Unemployment Rate 30.0 51.0 38.0 36.0 Region West Bank Total 22.0 48.0 35.0 27.0 WB North 31.0 56.0 40.8 31.0 WB Middle 16.0 34.0 19.6 10.0 WB South 18.0 52.0 47.6 32.0 Gaza Total 44.0 57.0 43.0 39.0 Gaza City 31.0 51.0 28.8 33.0 Gaza Other 49.0 65.0 50.4 42.0 Place City 20.0 43.0 25.0 27.0 Village/Town 36.0 56.0 44.1 30.0 Camp 39.0 58.0 49.7 40.0 Gender Male 29.0 49.0 36.1 30.0 Female 37.0 60.0 50.8 42.0 Refugee Status Refugee 37.0 56.0 43.4 37.0 Non-refugee 25.0 47.0 35.2 27.0 Education Primary 37.0 60.0 45.2 33.0 Secondary 34.0 53.0 42.9 36.0 2-yr college 24.0 43.0 34.6 12.0 University degree(s) 22.0 32.0 23.9 27.0 Marital Status Single 45.0 30.8 38.0 Married 53.0 35.6 39.0 Age 18-30 42.0 54.0 46.7 41.0 31-43 25.0 54.0 35.9 24.0 44-64 20.0 58.0 26.1 25.0
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