Elections, Negotiations, Strike, Refugee Camps, Criticism of the PNA
May 18-20, 1995
Radio StationsWhen Palestinians were asked about the radio stations they listen to, the Voice of Palestine was first and Israel Radio (Voice of Israel) was second. Third were Monte Carlo and Radio Jordan followed by Egyptian radio stations. Despite Voice of Palestine coming in first overall, it was not the first in the Gaza Strip, where the percentage for Israel Radio is slightly higher. As for the West Bank, the percentage of listeners to Voice of Palestine was much larger than other radio stations. The results show that 25% of the respondents do not listen to the Voice of Palestine at all, compared with 17% who do not listen to Israel Radio at all. Because we asked respondents to rank the radio stations by first choice through last choice, obtaining a high percentage of first choice does not mean that the station has the highest listening rate on average. As is clear in Table 4, the Voice of Palestine was the first choice for 37% of the respondents, was the second choice for 17.3%, the third for 11.3%, the fourth for 6.2%, and the fifth for 2.9%. In addition, the percentage of those who never listen was 25%. This means that Voice of Palestine received an average of 3 points on a scale from 0 to 5. If we look at the other radio stations, we find that average listening to Israeli Radio is slightly higher than that for Palestine where Israeli Radio's average is 3.1 out of 5. As for Monte Carlo, it obtains 2 out of 5, and Radio Jordan obtains 2.5 out of 5.
Table 4.A
Ranking of Radio Stations
Israeli Radio % Jordanian Radio Voice of Monte Carlo % % Palestine% First choice 26.0% 13.5% 37.0% 14.3% Second choice 27.3% 21.0% 17.8% 12.2% Third choice 18.1% 22.2% 11.8% 09.6% Fourth choice 06.4% 09.7% 06.2% 16.9% Fifth choice 04.7% 04.9% 02.9% 06.3% Do not listen 17.6% 28.7% 25.3% 40.9%*The rows do not add up to 100% because there were other choices in the question.Table 4.B
Statistical Measures
Israeli Radio Jordanian Radio Voice of Monte Carlo
Palestine
Mean 3.123/5 2.436/5 2.996/5 1.952/5
Mode Second choice Don't listen First choice Don't listen
Median 4/5 3/5 4/5 2/5
Variance 3.094 3.340 4.037 3.578
These statistics mean that there is sharp competition between Voice of Palestine and Israeli Radio to attract the attention of Palestinian listeners. Although Palestinian Radio was the first choice for the largest percentage, its average listening rate was less than that of Israeli Radio. This becomes clear if we look at the variance which for Israeli Radio is approximately 3 and for Voice of Palestine is 4. This means that for Voice of Palestine, there is a division mainly between those who say it is their first choice and those who do not listen at all, which may be natural for a new station as many are trying the new station and others do not know of its existence.We notice that men and women listen at the same rates to Voice of Palestine and also Israel Radio, but more men listen to Monte Carlo and more women listen to Radio Jordan than do men. Israel Radio is listened to at the same rates in villages, cities, and camps, but we notice that Voice of Palestine is listened to more in villages. Also, we find that camp residents are least likely to listen to Radio Jordan, as is the case in the Gaza Strip as a whole. Town residents comprise the most listeners of Radio Jordan. The areas with the most listeners to the Voice of Palestine are Jerusalem and Bethlehem, and Jenin has the least (see Table 5).
Table 5
Choice of Radio Station by Area of Residence
Israeli Jordanian Voice of Monte Egypt % Others %
Radio % Radio % Palestine % Carlo %
Nablus 34.7 11.5 29.8 16.3 04.8 02.9
Tulkarm 19.4 22.2 33.9 17.1 02.9 04.4
Jenin 36.7 26.6 13.9 13.9 03.8 05.0
Jericho 26.1 17.4 43.5 08.7 --- 04.3
Ramallah 19.6 15.5 53.6 07.2 02.1 02.0
Hebron 20.0 16.5 53.0 07.0 01.7 01.8
Bethlehem 21.9 12.3 57.5 05.5 02.7 ---
Jerusalem 16.5 11.4 63.3 06.3 02.5 ---
Gaza North 35.9 15.6 28.1 09.4 04.7 06.3
Gaza City 24.5 07.0 28.7 16.8 12.6 10.5
Gaza Middle 27.6 04.9 24.4 24.4 13.8 04.9
Gaza South 26.6 07.8 26.6 28.1 10.9 ---
With regard to education, we find that more educated respondents are the least likely to listen to Jordanian Radio and more likely to listen to Monte Carlo. Listening to the Voice of Palestine is inversly related to education (see Table 6).Table 6
Choice of Radio Station by Education
Israeli Jordanian Voice of Monte Egypt % Others Radio % Radio% Palestine Carlo % % % Up to 9 yrs. 25.4 15.1 41.3 08.5 06.6 03.2 9-12 yrs. 27.8 12.4 36.4 14.0 05.6 03.8 2 yrs. 20.9 13.4 30.0 26.3 06.7 02.9 College BA/BS 22.8 06.1 27.7 28.9 05.0 08.5Fateh supporters listen to the Voice of Palestine more than others, while supporters of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and PFLP listen to Israel Radio more than Voice of Palestine. Monte Carlo is the first choice among PFLP and DFLP supporters. We notice that there is a relationship between choosing a radio station and support for the negotiations, where Voice of Palestine listeners have the most support for the negotiations and listeners to Monte Carlo and London have the least (see Table 7).
Table 7
Support for Negotiations by Choice of Radio Stations
Yes % No % Not Sure % Israeli Radio 59.8 29.1 11.1 Jordanian Radio 63.6 16.4 19.9 Voice of Palestine 73.9 16.1 10.0 Monte Carlo 58.3 33.9 07.8 Egypt 67.6 16.3 16.1 Others 35.9 44.2 19.9
Criticism of the PNA without fearHalf of the respondents declared that people are able to criticize the PNA without fear. As for the other half, they were divided among those who answered "to a certain extent" and those who answered "no" and "don't know". We notice a difference between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip where the percentage of those believing it is possible to criticize the authority is much less (13% less) in the Gaza Strip, where the PNA actually exists (along with Jericho). (See Table 8).
Table 8
Ability to Criticize the PNA without Fear
Yes % Somewhat % No % Don't Know % Nablus 48.6 15.0 19.5 16.9 Tulkarm 48.7 13.5 26.9 10.9 Jenin 50.6 13.3 25.3 10.8 Jericho 40.0 20.0 36.0 04.0 Ramallah 33.7 24.0 18.3 24.0 Hebron 72.4 11.2 07.8 08.6 Bethlehem 82.4 08.1 02.7 06.8 Jerusalem 59.5 16.7 06.0 17.9 Gaza North 46.4 17.4 26.1 10.1 Gaza City 44.7 20.4 21.7 13.2 Gaza Middle 37.8 24.4 23.6 14.2 Gaza South 40.9 19.7 25.8 13.6We find also that the educated are less likely to believe that criticism without fear is possible than the uneducated, where 25% of those with a Bachelors degree said that it was not possible compared with 13% of those with less education (see Table 9).
Table 9
Attitude Towards Possibility to Criticize PNA by Education
Yes % Somewhat % No % Don't Know % Up to 9 yrs. 50.7 12.8 17.9 18.6 9-12 yrs. 49.3 20.4 20.6 09.7 2 yrs College 52.8 22.2 16.8 08.3 BA/BS 49.0 25.0 23.5 02.5
The NegotiationsThere was no noticeable change in support for the negotiations this month, where support was 66.6% in March, and is now 65%. We notice that opposition to continuing the negotiations is higher than 30% in the area of Hebron, among those with a Bachelors degree, and among employees, specialists, and merchants.
Refugee camps in the West Bank and Gaza StripPalestinians were polled concerning their views of the future of the refugee camps in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and gave the most support to keeping the camps with improvements in their living conditions. A quarter of the respondents chose transferring the residents to new housing projects and fewer chose keeping them as they are until a final agreement is reached concerning them. We notice a large increase of support for the choice of improving the living conditions compared with a poll conducted in April 1994 where support for this option was 31% and has now become 47.3%. We notice that camp residents are the most supportive of this option (see Table 10).
Table 10
Attitude Toward Refugee Camp Futures by Place of Residence
Remain as are % Transfer Remain with Others %
Residents % Improvements%
City 20.7 28.9 42.7 07.7
Town 16.1 19.6 55.4 08.9
Village 23.5 26.0 44.2 06.4
Ref. Camp 21.7 18.7 55.5 04.1
Also, we find that support for this option is spread throughout the political parties and especially the opposition. (see Table 11)Table 11
Attitude Toward Refugee Camp Futures by Political Affiliation
Remain as are % Transfer Remain with Others %
Residents % Improvements%
DFLP 19.8 20.3 54.6 05.3
PPP 44.8 16.6 38.7 ---
Fateh 19.6 27.6 47.2 05.6
PFLP 25.7 18.8 51.8 03.7
Hamas 20.4 16.6 59.2 03.8
Islamic Jihad 26.0 26.0 44.3 03.7
Islamic Inds. 25.5 24.1 46.9 03.4
Nationalist 40.6 26.7 28.7 04.0
Inds.
Others 22.6 19.5 45.2 12.7
No one 16.9 26.3 44.0 12.8
Strike on 9th of each monthMost of the respondents support abolishing the strike on the 9th of each month or transforming it to a yearly occasion. Less than a quarter of the respondents declared their wish to keep the strike in its monthly form. Despite the fact that the strike has been abolished in the Gaza Strip since the establishment of the Palestinian Authority, approximately 25% of the residents of Gaza support keeping it. We find that the groups most supportive of abolishing the strike are the merchants and the laborers. Concerning political affiliation, we also find that independents are the most supportive of cancelling the strike (see Table 12).
Table 12
Attitude Toward the Strike by Political Affiliation
Cancel % Remain % Anniversary % Other % DFLP 33.3 33.3 33.4 --- PPP 15.8 10.5 73.7 --- Fateh 39.7 20.1 36.0 04.2 PFLP 25.9 32.8 37.9 03.4 Hamas 31.3 34.4 31.9 02.5 Is. Jihad 30.0 33.3 33.3 03.3 Is. Inds. 42.1 21.1 31.6 05.3 Nat. Inds. 43.9 24.6 31.6 --- Others 35.9 16.7 32.1 15.1 No one 41.0 17.5 31.3 10.2
Fairness of electionsA total of 27.6% of the respondents declared that they believe that the elections will be fair compared with 19% who believe that they will not. A further 22.6% said that they will be somewhat fair. It is significant that more than 30% chose "don't know". Supporters of the opposition believe that elections will not be fair more than supporters of other groups. We find also that older respondents are more likely to believe in the possibility of fair elections than younger respondents. Also, we find that the least educated are the most likely to believe the possibility of fair elections (see Table 13).
Table 13
Attitudes Towards Fair Elections by Education
Yes % Somewhat % No % Don't Know % up to 9 years 31.1 17.3 15.0 36.6 9-12 years 22.6 25.1 23.4 28.9 2 yr college 27.4 34.5 21.5 16.6 BA/BS 22.4 31.2 25.4 21.0Also, there is a relationship between political affiliation and view toward fairness of the elections where supporters of the opposition believe that the elections will not be fair more than others (see Table 14)
Table 14
Attitudes Towards Fair Elections by Political Affiliation
Yes % Somewhat % No % Don't Know % DFLP 29.5 19.8 35.7 15.0 PPP 16.6 27.6 11.6 44.2 Fateh 38.3 22.6 09.6 29.5 PFLP 15.1 27.6 36.9 20.4 Hamas 15.1 24.2 30.6 30.1 Islamic Jihad 29.3 18.7 26.0 26.0 Islamic Inds. 17.2 38.6 24.5 19.7 Nationalist 17.1 40.2 24.5 18.3 Inds. Others 25.7 13.9 25.1 35.3 No One 12.8 14.8 27.0 45.3
Boycott of electionsIf the Palestinian opposition calls for a boycott of the elections, 20.5% will boycott, compared with 58.3% who will participate. Compared with the previous poll, we find that if there is no boycott the percentage of participants increases to more than 74%. The condition of a boycott stipulated in the question led to a higher percentage of respondents (20%) who declared they have no opinion on the subject. A third of the supporters of Hamas will participate along with a quarter of the supporters of PFLP, despite a call for a boycott (see Table 15).
Table 15
Participation in Elections by Political Affiliation
Will boycott % Will participate % No opinion % DFLP 35.7 54.6 09.7 PPP 22.1 55.8 22.1 Fateh 08.2 76.9 14.9 PFLP 57.4 24.3 18.4 Hamas 48.5 33.4 18.1 Islamic Jihad 29.3 55.7 15.0 Islamic Independent 29.7 55.9 14.5 National Inds. 12.0 65.7 22.3 Other 19.8 61.4 18.8 No one 23.6 23.4 53.1
It seems that there is a clear relationship between age and intent to boycott the elections, where approximately 33% of the 18-22 age group will boycott compared with 10% of those who are over 50 (see Table 16)Table 16
Participation in Elections by Age
Boycott % Participate % No Opinion % 18-22 32.6 49.2 18.3 23-26 20.4 59.2 19.8 27-30 19.8 62.0 18.2 31-35 20.1 58.5 21.4 36-42 21.5 56.9 21.6 43-50 17.8 58.0 24.2 51+ 09.7 66.5 23.8
This could be due to the lower percentage of younger respondents who believe the elections will be fair compared with older respondents. It could also be due to the fact that the percentage for support for opposition factions among the 18-22 age group is approximately 33% compared with 13% among those who are over 50.
Participation of women in electionsA total of 71% of the respondents declared that they are ready to elect a qualified woman if she ran for election, whereas 27% refused to elect a woman. We notice a difference between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip on this subject, where a larger percentage of West Bank residents are ready to elect a woman. There is not a large difference between women and men with regard to the possibility of electing a qualified woman, however, a larger percentage of men refuse on principle whereas a larger percentage of women believe a man is more qualified. This is linked fundamentally to degree of education, where more educated respondents, whether men or women, are more ready to elect a qualified woman (see Table 17).
Table 17
Readiness to Elect a Woman by Education
Yes % No, a man...% No % Other % up to 9 years 67.5 21.9 08.2 02.4 9-12 years 71.4 14.8 12.4 01.4 2-yr college 82.4 09.3 08.3 --- BA/BS 80.1 09.4 10.4 ---Also we find that women with university degrees comprise the group most ready to elect a woman (90%) compared with 75% of men with university degrees. As for the least educated, there is no difference between women and men concerning their views towards this topic. (See Table 18)
Table 18
Readiness to Elect a Woman Among Men and Women by Education
Men: 12 yrs or less 69% Women: 12 yrs or 68%
less
Men: 2 yr College 86% Women: 2 yr College 78%
Men: University 75% Women: University 90%
This means that with an increase in education the gap between men and women concerning a female candidate increases. In other words, while readiness to elect a women increases with education, it increases more dramatically among women than among men. We notice also a relationship between political affiliation and view on this topic, where supporters of Islamic Jihad and Hamas are the least willing to elect a woman (see Table 19).Table 19
Readiness to Elect a Woman by Political Affiliation
Yes % No, a man...% No % Others % DFLP 80.2 04.8 10.1 04.8 PPP 82.9 06.1 05.5 05.5 Fateh 77.7 16.1 05.6 00.6 PFLP 86.8 07.7 05.5 --- Hamas 47.5 28.5 21.7 02.2 Islamic Jihad 62.3 30.4 07.3 --- Islamic Inds. 53.4 35.9 10.7 --- Nationalist 83.5 02.0 14.5 --- Inds. Others 73.4 08.4 11.2 07.1 No One 60.2 23.6 12.8 03.4
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