CPRS Polls - Survey Research Unit
Public Opinion Poll #18
Redeployment Agreement, PNA Performance, Prisoners Release, Electoral System, and Other Topics, July 6-9, 1995
This is the eighteenth public opinion poll conducted by the Survey Research Unit (SRU) at the Center for Palestine Research and Studies. The following topics are covered in this poll: redeployment, unemployment, elections, and evaluation of the Palestinian Authority. The SRU has been conducting regular public opinion polls to document an important phase in the history of the Palestinian people and to record the reactions of the Palestinian community with regard to current political events. CPRS does not adopt political positions and does not tolerate attempts to influence the conclusions reached or published for political motives. CPRS is committed to providing a scholarly contribution to analysis and objective study and to publishing the results of all our studies and research. Poll results provide a vital resource for the community and for researchers needing statistical information and analysis. The polls give members of the community opportunity to voice their opinion and to seek to influence decision makers on issues of concern to them.

Here are the main findings of this poll:

Enclosed are the results of the current public opinion poll that has been conducted in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip (see Appendix) and analysis of the results.

Table of Contents

General Background

The days preceding this poll witnessed an important breakthrough in the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations regarding the Israeli army redeployment in the West Bank. The main points of a possible agreement were published in the local press, and it was expected that the agreement itself would be signed before the end of July 1995. In the few weeks preceding that breakthrough, the following events took place. Palestinian prisoners declared a hunger strike. The strike was accompanied by protest action and street demonstrations in the West Bank resulting in 3 deaths when the Israeli army opened fire with live ammunition on a Palestinian demonstration by anNajah University students. A Palestinian-Israeli confrontation regarding Israeli settlement policy in East Jerusalem led to the Israeli decision to suspend the confiscation of 530 dunams of Arab land in East Jerusalem. Several members of Islamic armed cells belonging to Hamas and Islamic Jihad were killed or assassinated by Israelis during the same period. This period also witnessed the cessation of attacks, against Israeli targets, by Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Meanwhile, the Palestinian authority continued to arrest Islamists accused of planning attacks against Israeli targets. Arms, belonging to Islamists, were found and confiscated. This, however, did not stop talks between the PNA and the opposition. Finally, important student elections took place at Birzeit and anNajah Universities with the main political factions maintaining their strength at the two universities. These elections showed Fateh to be the largest student faction, but opposition forces (Islamists and national opposition) were able, nonetheless, to form a coalition enjoying the support of the majority of the students.
Methodology
The process of sample selection began with the creation of lists of all locations in the West Bank and Gaza according to district, population size and distribution, and type of locality (city, town, village, and refugee camp). A proportional random sample of locations to be surveyed was selected from these lists. Fieldworkers and researchers created maps for these localities. The sample units (blocks) to be surveyed were selected randomly. Households were selected based on a systematic sampling framework. To select the individual within the selected household to be interviewed, fieldworkers had to flip a coin twice to determine gender and age of the respondent. We received 719 questionnaires from the West Bank and 390 from Gaza, for a total of 1109 interviews with Palestinians 18 years or older. Interviews took place primarily over a four day period, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday July 6-9, and were conducted on a face-to-face basis. The non-response rate is estimated at 7%. Data were processed through the use of SPSS, a computer package that is able to detect illogical answers and other inconsistencies. The margin of error for this poll is less than 3%.

Survey Instrument

The questionnaire was designed through consultations with experts. A pre-test involving fifty questionnaires was conducted in the Nablus area prior to the poll. The questionnaire instrument includes a large number of demographic variables as indicated in the section on sample distribution. A total of 35*** variables and questions are included in this questionnaire. The section on unemployment that was added recently remained in this questionnaire.

Household Sample Selection

SRU researchers adopted a multi-stage sample selection process. The process of sample selection began with the creation of lists of all locations in the West Bank and Gaza according to district, population size and distribution, and type of locality (city, town, village, and refugee camp). A simple random sample of locations to be surveyed was selected from these lists, as shown in Table 1. Fieldworkers and researchers created maps for these localities. These maps indicated the boundaries, main streets, and clusters of residential neighborhoods in these localities which were further divided into a number of sampling units (blocks) with each unit comprising an average of two hundred housing units. The sample units (blocks) to be surveyed were selected randomly.

Table 1

Sample Localities Selection*

The Following table lists the localities that were included in the sample for this month. 

District (Sample       Localities             District (Sample       Localities                
Size/ %)                                      Size/%)                                          
Nablus  (113/10.2)     Nablus City, Qusra,    Tulkarm (92/8.3)       Tulkarm City and Camp,    
                       Kabalan, Balata (RC)                          anNazla asSharkia,        
                                                                     Balah, Faroun             
Jenin (88/7.9)         Jenin City, Deir Abu   Jericho (25/2.3)       Jericho                   
                       Daief, Kufur Rai,                                                       
                       Arabouna, Jenin (RC)                                                    
Ramallah (107/09.6)    Ramallah City, al      Hebron (126/11.4)      Hebron, Beit Kahib,       
                       Bireh, amMazra'a                              Yatta, Beit Om'ar, Beit   
                       Sharkieh, Beitunia,                           Oula                      
                       Kherbet Abu Falah,                                                      
                       al Jelezon (RC)                                                         
Jerusalem (74/6.7)     Beit Hanina, atTour,   Bethlehem (73/6.6)     Bethlahem, Nahalin,       
                       asSouwana, Shu Afat                           alKhadar, Deheisheh (RC)  
                       (RC)                                                                    
Gaza North (66/6.0)    Jabalya(Village/RC),   Gaza City (152/13.7)   asShati, anNasar,         
                       anNazla, Beit Hanoun                          arRimal, asSadara,        
                                                                     al-Zeitun, asShoja'aya    
Gaza Middle            Dir Balah,             Gaza South (67/6.0)    Rafah City and Camp       
(126/11.4)             anNsairat, al                                                           
                       Bureij, Khan Younis,                                                    
                       'Absaan Kabira, Beni                                                    
                       Suhaila                                                                 


*The fieldworkers conducted interviews in 60 cities, villages, and camps where over 145 sampling units were used.
Households were selected based on a systematic sampling framework. For example, if the fieldworker estimated the number of houses in the sampling unit to be two hundred and is assigned ten interviews, the fieldworker divided the 200 by 10, obtaining 20. Therefore, the fieldworker would conduct the first interview in the 20th house, and the second in the 40th, and so on. Fieldworkers were asked to start their sample selection of housing units from a well-defined point in the area such as a post office, mosque, business, etc. They were asked to report on the direction of their sampling walks. Fieldworkers played an active role in drawing the maps for the localities in the sample and in estimating the number of houses in each block.

To select the individual within the selected household to be interviewed, fieldworkers had to flip a coin twice. The first flip was to choose gender of the respondent and the second was to choose whether the respondent was to be older or younger than forty years. When in the household, fieldworkers would conduct the interview with the person who has the characteristics that they selected in this manner.

We received 719 questionnaires from the West Bank and 390 from Gaza, for a total of 1109 interviews.
Sample Distribution
(Expressed as a % of the total sample)
Sample Distribution July 1995 Education July 1995
West Bank
Gaza Strip		 64.8 (63.0)
35.2 (37.0) 		Up to 9 yrs.
10-12 years
Two-Yr. Coll.
University
Degree(s) 		47.0 (53.0)
30.4 (27.0)
11.3 (20***)
11.3
Muslim
Christian		 95.9 (95.5)
04.1 (04.5)		 Male
Female		 48.4 (49.0)
51.6 (51.0)
City
Town/Village
Refugee Camp 		40.8
35.7
23.5 		Refugee
Non-Refugee 		49.5 (42.0)
50.5 (58.0) 		Single
Married
Divorced or
Widowed 		20.6
75.7
03.7
Age
18-22
23-26
27-30
31-35
36-42
43-50
Over 50 		15.4 (20.1)
12.2
14.2
14.6
15.5
12.5
15.6		 Occupation
Laborers
Craftsmen
Housewives
Specialists*
Employees**
Merchants
Students
Farmers
Retired
None
10.0
09.4
40.4
02.9
11.0
04.3
08.1
02.7
01.3
09.8
*Specialists (University teacher, engineer, doctor, lawyer, pharmacist, excecutive).
**Employees(school teacher, government employee, nurse, lower-level company employee.
Population Estimates are based on the "Statistical Abstract of Israel" (1993) and FAFO (1993).
*** for all post-secondary degrees.
Data Collection
Our data collectors have participated in a number of workshops where the goals of the poll were discussed. They were also lectured on household interviewing, confidence building, mapping, sampling techniques, survey methods, and scientific research. Four special training seminars for data collectors were conducted during this month, attended by a total of sixty-four fieldworkers. Training for data collection was conducted in the field where actual illustrations of the sample selection and interviewing techniques were conducted.

Data collectors worked in groups supervised by qualified researchers. CPRS researchers made random visits to interview stations and discussed the research process with data collectors. More than fifty percent of our data collectors were female, so as to ensure the representation of women in the sample. Data collectors were assigned a limited number of interviews (an average of 18 per day) to allow for careful interviewing.

Interviews took place primarily over a three day period (Thursday, Friday, and Saturday) after 1:00 pm in order to obtain a more representative sample and were conducted on a face-to-face basis. Household interviews resulted in a lower non-response rate, estimated at 7%. Some respondents, we believe, were reluctant to state their political views out of fear or disinterest in the present political factions .

Data Analysis
Data were processed through the use of SPSS, a computer package that is able to detect illogical answers and other inconsistencies. The margin of error for this poll is less than 3%.
Results
Unemployment

The results of the poll show that unemployment rate in the West Bank and Gaza is 29%, dropping 7 points from May. Unemployment rate is 27% in the West Bank and 33% in the Gaza Strip where it was 39% last May (see Table 3).

Table 3

Unemployment Demographics 

                    DEC. 1994 %   FEB. 1995 %   MAR. 1995 %    MAY 1995 %    July 1995 %  
Unemployment Rate       30.0      51.0          38.0           36.0          29.0         
Region                                                                                    
West Bank Total         22.0      48.0          35.0           27.0          27.0         
WB North                31.0      56.0          40.8           31.0          31.0         
WB Middle               16.0      34.0          19.6           10.0          12.0         
WB South                18.0      52.0          47.6           32.0          32.0         
Gaza Total              44.0      57.0          43.0           39.0          33.0         
Gaza City               31.0      51.0          28.8           33.0          25.0         
Gaza Other              49.0      65.0          50.4           42.0          39.0         
Place                                                                                     
City                    20.0      43.0          25.0           27.0          23.0         
Village/Town            36.0      56.0          44.1           30.0          35.0         
Camp                    39.0      58.0          49.7           40.0          32.0         
Gender                                                                                    
Male                    29.0      49.0          36.1           30.0          27.0         
Female                  37.0      60.0          50.8           42.0          37.0         
Refugee Status                                                                            
Refugee                 37.0      56.0          43.4           37.0          29.0         
Non-refugee             25.0      47.0          35.2           27.0          37.0         
Education                                                                                 
Primary                 37.0      60.0          45.2           33.0          31.0         
Secondary               34.0      53.0          42.9           36.0          36.0         
2-yr college            24.0      43.0          34.6           12.0          24.0         
University degree       22.0      32.0          23.9           27.0          18.0         
Marital Status                                                                            
Single                            45.0          30.8           38.0          40.0         
Married                           53.0          35.6           39.0          26.0         
Age                                                                                       
18-30                   42.0      54.0          46.7           41.0          38.0         
31-43                   25.0      54.0          35.9           24.0          25.0         
44-64                   20.0      58.0          26.1           25.0          20.0

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