This is the nineteenth public opinion poll conducted by the Survey Research Unit (SRU) at the Center for Palestine Research and Studies. The SRU has been conducting regular public opinion polls to document an important phase in the history of the Palestinian people and to record the reactions of the Palestinian community with regard to current political events. CPRS does not adopt political positions and does not tolerate politically motivated attempts to influence the conclusions reached or published. CPRS is committed to providing a scholarly contribution to analysis and objective study and to publishing the results of all our studies and research. Poll results provide a vital resource for the community and for researchers needing statistical information and analysis. The polls give members of the community opportunity to voice their opinion and to seek to influence decision makers on issues of concern to them. This poll focuses on prospects for peace, direction of the Palestinian society, the PNA performance, armed attacks, elections, and political affiliation. The main findings are:Enclosed are the results of the current public opinion poll that has been conducted in the West Bank and Gaza Strip (See Appendix), including a summary of the analysis of the results. For the full text of the poll or for further information, please contact Dr. Khalil Shikaki or the coordinator of SRU, Dr. Nader Izzat Sa'id, at Tel (09) 380383/381619 - Fax (09) 380384.
- A majority of Palestinians (59.5%) do not expect a lasting peace with Israel; only 23% expect a lasting peace.
- Respondents were equally divided as to whether or not Palestinian society is headed in the correct direction: 32.6% affirm the present direction and 28.9% question it.
- A majority of 97.1% believe the PNA must guarantee freedom of speech.
- A total of 37.4% of respondents support a form of unity with Jordan and 61.2% support two independent states.
- A total of 49.5% were optimistic about the future compared to 28.8% who said they were pessimistic.
- Support for the continuation of peace negotiations is at 70.6%.
- About 70% of Palestinians support armed attacks against Israeli army targets and against settlers, while less than 19% support attacks against other civilians.
- Most Palestinians feel their economic situation or standard of living has either gotten worse (43.5%) or stayed the same (45.2%).
- About 39% of Palestinians feel that the performance of the PNA is above average.
- Support for Arafat is at 53.7%, and Fateh is at 43.2%.
- A large majority (86.3%) believe that political elections offer the best means to choose the members of PISGA.
- 74.1% say that they will participate in the elections if and when they occur.
- General Background
- Methodology
- Sample Distribution
- Data Collection
- Data Analysis
- Results
- 1. Lasting peace between Palestinians and Israelis
- 2. Direction of Palestinian society
- 3. PNA and Free Speech
- 4. Configuration of future Palestinian-Jordanian relations
- 5. Future Outlook
- 6. Continuation of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations
- 7. Armed attacks
- 8. Economic conditions
- 9. Evaluation of the PNA
- 10. President of the PNA
- 11. Best way to choose PISGA
- 12. Participation in elections
- 13. Political affiliation
- Appendix
The period preceding this poll was marked by increasing provocations by settlers as they occupied a number of mountain tops around the West Bank and succeeded in closing several roads. The negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis faced problems especially regarding the issue of withdrawal from Hebron. Two suicide bombings were carried out against Israeli targets in Ramat Gan and Jerusalem resulting in the death of eleven Israelis. The Israeli military and the Palestinian Authority arrested a large number of Hamas and Islamic Jihad activists. The West Bank and Gaza Strip were under tightened closures on several occasions. The PNA issued an order to close two newspapers supportive of Hamas and the Islamic Jihad. In this period, Jerusalem was the focus of many observers as settlers and the Jewish city council waged a campaign against Palestinian institutions in the city, resulting in confrontations between Palestinians and Israelis.
The present poll is part of a larger survey of social and political attitudes that includes 300 items, the results of which will be published in the near future. The results of this survey will be the basis for a large number of scholarly research papers on political and social attitudes among Palestinians. For the purpose of this survey, some adjustments had to be made in the research methodology. More specifically, the selection of the respondents in the household was based on a table designed by CPRS researchers to guarantee the representation of all ages, education levels, and men and women. Our system resulted in the over representation of educated Palestinians as 40% of the respondents had more than 12 years of education. To adjust the sample, we had to weight for education by deflating the percentage of the educated sample.Survey Instrument
The questionnaire was designed through consultations with experts. A pre-test involving fifty questionnaires was conducted in the Nablus area prior to the poll. The questionnaire instrument includes a large number of demographic variables as indicated in the section on sample distribution.
Household Sample Selection
SRU researchers adopted a multi-stage sample selection process. The process of sample selection began with the creation of lists of all locations in the West Bank and Gaza according to district, population size and distribution, and type of locality (city, town, village, and refugee camp). A simple random sample of locations to be surveyed was selected from these lists. Fieldworkers and researchers created maps for these localities. These maps indicated the boundaries, main streets, and clusters of residential neighborhoods in these localities which were further divided into a number of sampling units (blocks) with each unit comprising an average of two hundred housing units. The sample units (blocks) to be surveyed were selected randomly.
(Expressed as a % of the total sample / Data is not weighted in this table)*Specialists (University teacher, engineer, doctor, lawyer, pharmacist, executive)
Sample Distribution
Aug/Sept 1995
(Population)Sample
Distribution
Aug/Sept 1995
(Population)West Bank
Gaza Strip62.3(63)
37.7(37)Refugee
Non Refugee44.4(42)
55.6(58)City
Town/Village
Ref. Camp39.9
41.6
18.5Single
Married
Divorced or
Widowed**33.1
**64.4
**02.5Age
18-22
23-26
27-30
31-35
36-42
43-50
0ver 50
25.3(15.4)
16.9(12.2)
13.2(14.2)
13.6(14.6)
12.7(15.5)
09.3(12.5)
09.0(15.6)Occupation
Laborers
Craftsmen
Housewives
Specialists*
Employees**
Merchants
Students
Farmers
Retired
Unemployed
06.9
08.8
31.8
03.1
14.6
05.6
14.5
02.2
01.4
10.9Male
Female49.7(49)
50.3(51)Muslim
Christian95.9(95.5)
04.1(04.5)Education
Up to 9 Yrs.
10-12 Yrs.
Two-Yrs. Coll.
University
Degree(s)
32.6(53)
27.4(27)
16.7(20*)
23.3
*for all
post secondary
degreesNablus
Tulkarm
Jenin
Jericho
Ramallah
Hebron
Bethlehem
Jerusalem
Gaza North
Gaza City
Gaza Middle
Gaza South10.5
09.2
08.0
01.3
08.8
11.2
05.8
07.5
05.5
13.1
13.6
05.5
**Employees(school teacher, government employee, nurse, lower-level company employee)
--Population Estimates are based on the "Statistical Abstract of Israel" (1993), FAFO(1993), and Palestinian Statistical Bureau, 1995.Households were selected based on a systematic sampling framework. For example, if the fieldworker estimated the number of houses in the sampling unit to be one hundred and is assigned five interviews, the fieldworker divided the 100 by 5, obtaining 20. Therefore, the fieldworker would conduct the first interview in the 20th house, and the secin the 40th, and so on. Fieldworkers were asked to start their sample selection of housing units from a well-defined point in the area such as a post office, mosque, business, etc. They were asked to report on the direction of their sampling walks. Fieldworkers played an active role in drawing the maps for the localities in the sample and in estimating the number of houses in each block. We received 740 questionnaires from the West Bank and 449 from Gaza, representing a total of 1190 interviews with Palestinians 18 years or older.
Our data collectors have participated in a number of workshops where the goals of the poll were discussed. They were also lectured on household interviewing, confidence building, mapping, sampling techniques, survey methods, and scientific research. Four special training seminars for data collectors were conducted during this month, attended by a total of seventy-five fieldworkers. Training for data collection was conducted in the field where actual illustrations of the sample selection and interviewing techniques were conducted.Data collectors worked in groups supervised by qualified researchers. CPRS researchers made random visits to interview stations and discussed the research process with data collectors. More than fifty percent of our data collectors were female, so as to ensure the representation of women in the sample. Data collectors were assigned a limited number of interviews (an average of 5 per day) to allow for careful interviewing.
Household interviews resulted in a non-response rate estimated at 2%. Some respondents, we believe, were reluctant to state their political views out of fear or disinterest in the present political factions.
Data were processed through the use of SPSS, a computer package that is able to detect illogical answers and other inconsistencies. The margin of error for this poll is less than 3%.
1. Lasting peace between Palestinians and IsraelisWhen asked about the prospects for lasting peace between Palestine and Israel, a majority of 59.7% of those polled replied with skepticism. While 16.9% stated that they believe there will be lasting peace, another 13.3% anticipated lasting peace to an extent. Men were less confident in the prospects for a lasting peace than were women of whom a majority did not think there will be lasting peace (see Table 2).
Table 2
Lasting Peace by Gender
Yes % To a Large Extent To an Extent % No % Don't Know % Male 15.6 03.0 11.8 65.4 04.2 Female 22.4 05.1 12.9 54.0 05.6 Opinion was fairly equal among West Bank and Gaza respondents, although residents of the West Bank were slightly (2.1%) more doubtful than Gazans. Refugee camp residents were noticeably less confident about the possibility of a lasting peace than were other Palestinians (see Table 3).
Table 3
Lasting Peace by Place of Residence
Yes % To a Large Extent To an Extent % No % Don't Know % City 18.1 05.0 13.0 56.9 07.0 Town 21.4 --- 16.2 58.8 03.6 Village 19.9 03.9 12.4 58.9 04.9 Ref. Camp 19.0 04.1 09.5 66.7 00.7 We notice that doubt of lasting peace is directly correlated with education; respondents with a Bachelors degree were more skeptical than illiterate respondents (see Table 4).
Table 4
Lasting Peace by Education
Yes % To a Large Extent To an Extent % No % Don't Know % Illiterate 27.5 5.0 10.0 51.3 6.3 1-9 yrs. 26.1 5.2 10.7 53.7 4.2 Tawjihi 17.6 3.4 11.7 61.4 5.9 2 yrs. 10.6 3.5 16.7 66.2 3.0 B.A. 8.1 3.1 15.0 68.8 5.0 We also notice a correlation between political affiliation and views of peace with Israel where Fateh supporters were less skeptical than supporters of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the PFLP (see Table 5).
Table 5
Lasting Peace by Political Affiliation
Yes % To a Large Extent To an Extent % No % Don't Know % Hamas 11.9 02.1 04.1 79.3 02.6 Fateh 21.5 05.3 19.4 49.4 04.3 Is. Jihad 16.0 04.0 --- 80.0 --- PFLP 04.1 --- 14.3 79.6 02.0 Is. Ind. 09.3 02.5 07.6 76.3 04.2 Na. Ind. 15.4 --- 21.5 53.8 09.2 Others 11.1 --- --- 88.9 --- No one 20.0 20.0 20.0 40.0 ---
2. Direction of Palestinian societyAlmost one-third of those polled do not think that Palestinian society is headed in the correct direction. Here, also, we see a difference between the West Bank and Gaza, where residents of Gaza tend to be less satisfied with the present direction than those from the West Bank. Older Palestinians are more in agreement with the present direction than are younger Palestinians (see Table 6).
Table 6
Direction of Palestinian Society by Age
Yes % To a Large Extent To an Extent % No % Don't Know % 18-22 yrs. 28.5 03.7 28.1 34.3 05.3 23-26 yrs. 29.7 04.7 23.1 37.5 05.0 27-30 yrs. 29.2 03.6 27.3 35.4 04.4 31-35 yrs. 31.4 02.4 36.6 25.3 04.4 36-42 yrs. 35.7 05.6 28.6 23.3 06.9 43-50 yrs. 40.8 07.3 27.0 18.3 05.4 51+ yrs. 41.3 04.8 30.9 16.2 07.7 The least satisfied with the present direction are the educated and refugee camp residents (see Tables 7 and 8).
Table 7
Direction of Palestinian Society by Education
Yes % To a Large Extent To an Extent % No % Don't Know % Illiterate 32.5 03.8 33.8 16.3 13.8 Up to 9 yrs. 43.6 05.9 21.2 25.1 04.2 Tawjihi 29.6 02.8 29.3 34.3 04.0 College 28.8 05.1 29.8 31.8 04.5 Bachelor 16.3 05.0 39.9 30.6 08.1 Table 8
Direction of Palestinian Society by Refugee Status
Yes % To a Large Extent To an Extent % No % Don't Know % Yes 28.0 05.2 30.7 31.7 04.5 No 36.0 03.8 27.0 26.9 06.2
3. PNA and Freedom of SpeechA total of 58.2% of Palestinians strongly agree that the PNA must guarantee the human right of free speech. An additional 38.1% pronounced that they "agree" that the PNA has this responsibility. Only 3.7% of those polled either responded negatively or didn't know.
2 Independent States Complete Unity % Confederation % Other % Nablus 52.4 20.9 24.4 02.3 Tulkarm 60.7 18.8 19.3 01.2 Jenin 47.7 22.9 28.8 00.6 Jericho 68.2 16.2 15.6 --- Ramallah 67.3 15.4 12.3 04.9 Hebron 60.6 27.7 11.7 --- Bethlehem 42.2 18.5 37.4 02.0 Jerusalem 68.9 07.6 22.1 01.4 Gaza North 71.1 14.2 14.7 --- Gaza City 65.8 13.2 21.0 --- Gaza Middle 65.5 15.9 16.9 01.7 Gaza South 68.7 07.0 23.4 00.9 The formation of two independent states was the preferred alternative for the majority in each level of education. The most support for unity was among the least educated (see Table 10).
Table 10
Palestinian-Jordanian Relations by Education
2 Independent States Complete Unity % Confederation % Other % Illiterate 50.6 29.1 19.0 01.3 Up to 9 yrs. 62.9 20.5 15.9 00.7 Tawjihi 61.1 15.1 21.3 02.5 College 65.5 14.2 20.3 --- Bachelor 62.7 09.2 26.5 01.5
[ PSR Home ] [ Index of Polls ] [ This Poll's Previous Section ] [ This Poll's Next Section ]