CPRS Polls - Survey Research Unit
Public Opinion Poll #20
Taba Agreement, Elections, Jordanian-Palestinian Relations, Evaluation of PNA October 1995
II. Participation in Elections

Survey results reveal that the motives for participation are stronger than are motives for boycotting elections. A majority of respondents (70.9%) declared their intent to participate; however, one-fifth of those polled said they will not participate. Although intent to participate does not change with the added assumption that the opposition will call for a boycott, around 10% of those polled were not sure if they will participate. The lowest participation rates are expected in Jerusalem where only 52% expressed an intent to participate. The highest participation rates can be found among town and city residents where more than 73% want to participate compared with 66% in refugee camps. Young Palestinians, from age 18-22, and students are the least enthusiastic about participating. This is probably due to the strong support of the Palestinian opposition among these groups. Intent to participate in elections can also be correlated to gender as a higher percentage of men (78%) intend to participate compared with women (65%). The majority of the supporters of all political groups said that they intend to participate. Participation is correlated with views on the fairness of elections as shown in Table 11.

Table 11
Fairness of Elections by Participation
Yes
%
No
%
Don't Know
%
Fair 80.4 12.507.1
Not Fair 55.4 37.107.6
Don't Know 63.9 21.414.7

Residents of Jerusalem, south and north of the Gaza Strip, and Bethlehem are the most doubtful about the fairness of elections. Doubts about fairness are higher among supporters of PýFLP, DFLP, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Islamic Independents than supporters of Fateh, Feda, and PPP.

III. Willingness to Vote for a Woman

A majority of Palestinians say that they are ready to elect a Palestinian woman candidate if she nominated herself for elections. Readiness to elect a woman is higher in the West Bank than in the Gaza Strip, as almost one-third of respondents from Gaza and one-fifth of those from the West Bank said that they were not ready to do so. Respondents living in Gaza North, Middle, and South are the least supportive of a woman candidate, while those living in Ramallah, Tulkarm, and Bethlehem are the most supportive (Table 12).

Table 12
Willingness to Vote for a Women by Place of Interview
Yes
%
No
%
Don't Know
%
Nablus 68.3 25.006.7
Tulkarm 80.8 17.301.9
Jenin 71.3 26.402.3
Jericho 80.0 20.0---
Ramallah 80.6 12.606.8
Hebron 74.2 21.204.5
Bethlehem 78.1 20.501.4
Jerusalem 74.7 25.3---
Gaza North 60.7 34.404.9
Gaza City 68.6 23.408.0
Gaza Middle 60.7 32.806.6
Gaza South 53.8 38.707.5

No significant difference can be found in this poll between the opinions of men and women concerning their willingness to vote for a woman; however, a previous poll showed that women were more willing to vote for a female candidate. The results confirm that young Palestinians between 18 and 22 years old are the least willing to vote for a woman and that willingness to vote for a woman candidate is highest among BA holders. With regard to occupation, professionals (a small group in the sample) are the most willing to vote for a woman (95%), compared with housewives (71%).

IV. Electoral System

A total of 51.4% of Palestinian respondents said that a proportional representation system should be adopted for the upcoming election. This can be compared with 39.7% who prefer a simple majority system. Preference for one or another electoral system is correlated with education; the most educated favor a proportional system while the least educated prefer a majority system (Table 13).

Table 13
Electoral System by Education
Simple Majority

%
Proportional Representation
Don't Know

%
Illiterate
42.5
37.3
20.1
Elementary
44.5
41.7
13.7
Preparatory
40.4
53.1
06.5
Secondary
37.0
57.6
05.4
Middle Diploma
34.9
61.5
03.7
Bachelor
37.0
56.5
06.5

V. Registration to Vote

A majority of 80% of the respondents said they will participate in the registration for elections. In contrast, 15% said they will not. There are no significant differences between the various demographic groups concerning registration. Refusal to participate in registration was highest among supporters of the opposition; 26% of Hamas and PFLP supporters said that they will not register to vote. In terms of geographic areas, residents of Jerusalem are the most reluctant as only 67.6% said that they will register to vote (Table 14).

Table 14
Registration by Place of Residence
Yes
%
No
%
Not Sure
%
Nablus 85.0 12.502.5
Tulkarm 82.7 12.504.8
Jenin 85.1 11.503.4
Jericho 86.7 06.706.7
Ramallah 82.5 12.604.9
Hebron 82.9 13.203.9
Bethlehem 74.0 20.505.5
Jerusalem 67.6 29.702.7
Gaza N. 85.2 13.101.6
Gaza City 84.1 13.002.9
Gaza M. 73.0 19.707.4
Gaza S. 76.3 14.009.7

VI. PNA Presidents

The current poll shows a 6.3% increase in the popularity of Arafat from the last poll in August, 1995 (Table 15).

Table 15
Comparison of Support for Possible Presidential Candidates
Arafat
%
Yassin
%
Abdel Shafi
%
Habash
%
Others
%
Nov 1994 44.2 19.708.9 06.8 20.4
Dec 1994 48.5 18.408.6 05.8 18.7
Feb 1995 53.4 14.610.0 03.6 18.4
Mar 1995 56.5 13.507.6 03.2 19.2
May 1995 55.4 11.908.4 04.0 20.2
July 1995 49.3 13.407.6 03.9 25.7
Aug 1995 53.7 17.207.2 04.3 17.3
Oct 1995 60.0 13.408.0 03.2 15.4

Table 16 also confirms that support for Arafat is higher in Gaza than in the West Bank, and comes primarily from Fateh supporters. Yassin enjoys the support of Islamists, while Abdel Shafi competes with Arafat for the votes of Nationalist Independents and supporters of PPP and Feda. Habash received 75% of the votes of PFLP supporters.

VII. Political Affiliation

Fateh enjoyed a majority of votes in this poll. Independents comprise around 28%, Islamisists 18%, and Leftists (PPP, PFLP, Feda, and DFLP) less than 6%. Support for Fateh is high in the north of the West Bank and in Gaza. However, it has less than 40% support in Bethlehem and Jerusalem. Hamas's strongest support comes from Hebron, Jericho, Jerusalem, and Nablus (Table 16).

Table 16
Political Affiliation by Place of Residence*
Hamas

%
PFLP

%
Fateh

%
Islamic Jihad

%
Islamic Ind.

%
Nat. Ind.

%
Other

%
No One

%
Nablus
14.2
01.7
60.0
---
03.3
04.2
04.2
12.5
Tulkarm
09.9
03.0
51.5
05.0
03.0
05.0
05.9
14.9
Jenin
12.5
03.4
61.4
01.1
05.7
04.5
01.1
10.2
Jericho
17.9
---
57.1
03.6
03.6
07.1
---
10.7
Ramallah
08.7
05.8
43.7
01.9
---
04.9
12.6
15.5
Hebron
21.8
01.5
49.6
03.0
03.8
04.5
02.3
12.0
Bethlehem
11.0
04.1
38.4
02.7
11.0
08.2
05.5
15.1
Jerusalem
17.6
06.8
39.2
02.7
02.7
02.7
05.4
21.6
Gaza N.
11.5
04.9
60.7
01.6
01.6
---
---
13.1
Gaza City
12.3
01.4
57.2
02.2
01.4
02.9
08.7
10.9
Gaza M.
08.1
04.9
52.0
---
02.4
04.1
02.4
24.4
Gaza S.
11.8
03.2
58.1
01.1
04.3
01.1
02.2
17.2

*DFLP, Feda, and PPP are not included in this table because of small sample size resulting in tow totals less than 100% in some cases. Results for Jericho were not included for the same reason.
* Margin of error is more than 3% because of small sample size.

This poll confirms that support for Hamas is higher among women than men and is also high among younger Palestinians.

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