Taba Agreement, Elections, Jordanian-Palestinian Relations, Evaluation of PNA October 1995
V. Will agreements lead to a Palestinian state?Around 46% of the residents of the West Bank and Gaza believe that the Palestinian/Israeli negotiations will lead to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. This belief is shared by around 31% of Jordanians. In Jordan, 39% of the population feels that these negotiations will only lead to limited autonomy under Israeli control. This compares with 28.9% in the West Bank and 15.9% in Gaza who anticipate a limited autonomy (Table 24).
Table 24
Negotiation will lead to...
Jordan Palestine National Sample
%
Refugee Camps
%
West Bank
%
Gaza Strip
%
West Bank & Gaza
%
Limited Autonomy 39.0
33.3
28.9
16.4
24.2
Palestinian Entity Less Than a State 18.1
20.0
18.4
20.1
19.1
Independent Palestinian State 30.8
34.5
44.2
50.1
46.4
Don't Know 12.2
12.3
08.5
13.3
10.3
Despite the widespread support for the Taba Agreement, less than a majority believe it will lead to an independent Palestinian state. Again we see that there is a relationship between the level of the respondents' education and their opinions about the outcome of the negotiations; illiterate persons voiced twice as much optimism that an independent state will result than did those with the most education. In contrast, optimism for a limited autonomy was highest among Bachelor degree holders and lowest among the illiterate (Table 25).
Table 25
Negotiations will produce... by Education
Limited Autonomy
%
A Palestinian Entity
%
A Palestinian State
%
Don't Know
%
Illiterate 15.9
06.5
55.1
22.5
Elementary 19.4
10.0
58.3
12.3
Preparatory 22.4
15.2
54.4
08.0
Tawjihi 25.6
24.9
41.3
08.2
College 33.9
30.3
32.1
03.7
Bachelor 33.7
33.7
22.8
09.8
1. What is your attitude towards the Oslo B Agreement which was recently signed between Israel and the Palestinian authority?
Total West Bank Gaza
a) I support 72.1% 69.7% 76.1% b) I oppose 17.5% 20.5% 12.4% c) No opinion 10.4% 09.8% 11.5%
2. Do you support the amendment of the Palestinian National Charter (as agreed upon in Oslo B which stipulates the cancellation of the articles calling for the destruction of a state of Israel)?
a) I support 50.1% 49.5% 51.1% b) I oppose 38.6% 40.6% 35.4% c) No opinion 11.3% 09.9% 13.5%
3. The agreements which have been signed and the current negotiations will lead to the establishment of:
a) Limited Autonomy 24.2% 28.9% 16.4% b) A Palestinian entity 19.1% 18.4% 20.1% less than a state. c) An Independent 46.4% 44.2% 50.1% Palestinian state. d) Don't know 10.3% 08.5% 13.3%
4. What is your evaluation of the Palestinian Authority's performance regarding:
A. The release of prisoners
a) Good 42.7% 40.4% 46.6% b) Fair 28.4% 28.5% 28.3% c) Weak 25.1% 28.6% 19.2% d) Don't know 03.8% 02.5% 05.9%
B. Hebron
a) Good 19.7% 19.8% 19.5% b) Fair 24.1% 22.7% 26.5% c) Weak 39.8% 43.2% 34.0% d) Don't know 16.4% 14.3% 20.0%
5. The following statements refer to the upcoming election of the Palestinian Council. Do you agree with these statements?
A. It will promote the democratic process in the Palestinian community.
a) Yes 68.8% 70.4% 66.0% b) No 18.4% 18.7% 17.8% c) Don't know 12.8% 10.9% 16.2%
B. It is an implementation of Palestinian right to self determination.
a) Yes 73.1% 75.0% 69.7% b) No 18.1% 18.4% 17.6% c) Don't know 08.8% 06.6% 12.7%
C. It will bring changes for the better.
a) Yes 74.5% 75.3% 75.4% b) No 14.0% 14.4% 13.4% c) Don't know 11.5% 10.3% 13.4%
D. It will lead to an improvement in economic conditions.
a) Yes 61.4% 60.6% 62.6% b) No 23.4% 26.5% 18.0% c) Don't know 15.2% 12.9% 19.4%
E. It will lead to personal security.
a) Yes 74.3% 73.7% 75.4% b) No 15.3% 17.2% 12.2% c) Don't know 10.4% 09.1% 12.4%
F. It will guarantee the victory of the best party or political trend.
a) Yes 67.3% 68.4% 65.4% b) No 19.9% 20.9% 18.1% c) Don't know 12.8% 10.7% 16.5%
G. Participation in elections is a national duty.
a) Yes 91.2% 91.3% 90.8% b) No 06.4% 06.6% 06.1% c) Don't know 02.4% 02.1% 03.1%
H. It will lead to the establishment of a legislative council.
a) Yes 72.4% 73.6% 70.4% b) No 12.0% 11.9% 12.2% c) Don't know 15.6% 14.5% 17.4%
I. It will be a false election; the results are predetermined.
a) Yes 33.2% 33.5% 32.6% b) No 49.0% 51.1% 45.5% c) Don't know 17.8% 15.4% 21.9%
J. It will consolidate Israel's control over the West Bank and Gaza.
a) Yes 25.2% 29.2% 18.6% b) No 61.6% 60.1% 64.2% c) Don't know 13.2% 10.7% 17.2%
K. It will provide legitimacy for an unsatisfactory agreement.
a) Yes 37.2% 41.1% 30.5% b) No 45.0% 42.2% 49.8% c) Don't know 17.8% 16.7% 19.7%
L. It will provide the Authority with justification to oppress the Opposition.
a) Yes 40.0% 41.3% 37.8% b) No 45.4% 44.7% 46.5% c) Don't know 14.6% 14.0% 15.7%
M. It will lead to the formation of an executive (administrative) council only.
a) Yes 40.6% 43.0% 36.5% b) No 40.6% 37.8% 45.2% c) Don't know 18.8% 19.2% 18.3%
N. It will be a change for the worse.
a) Yes 17.7% 19.3% 15.0% b) No 67.8% 68.1% 67.4% c) Don't know 14.5% 12.6% 17.6%
O. It will violate religious instructions.
a) Yes 16.9% 18.3% 14.6% b) No 73.3% 71.6% 76.0% c) Don't know 09.8% 10.1% 09.4%
P. It will not change the status quo.
a) Yes 27.8% 28.8% 26.2% b) No 60.9% 60.8% 61.1% c) Don't know 11.3% 10.4% 12.7%
6. Will you participate in the general political elections to choose the members of the Palestinian Council?
a) Yes 70.9% 69.5% 73.2% b) No 20.0% 21.7% 17.1% c) Not sure 09.1% 08.8% 09.7%
7. If the following nominate themselves for the head of the Palestinian Authority, I will choose...
a) Ahmad Yassin 14.1% 15.9% 10.9% b) Yassir Arafat 58.4% 53.7% 66.3% c) H. Abdel Shafi 08.0% 08.8% 08.0% d) George Habash 03.2% 03.6% 02.7% e) Others 16.3% 18.8% 12.1%
8. If general political elections were held and I decided to participate, I would vote for...
a) Hamas 13.0% 14.3% 10.6% b) PPP 01.2% 01.5% 00.7% c) PFLP 03.3% 03.3% 03.3% d) Fateh 52.5% 50.5% 55.9% e) Feda 00.8% 00.4% 01.4% f) Islamic Jihad 01.9% 02.4% 01.2% g) DFLP 00.3% 00.1% 00.5% h) Islamic Ind. 03.3% 03.9% 02.4% i) National Ind. 04.0% 04.6% 02.8% j) Others 04.7% 04.6% 04.7% k) None of the above 15.0% 14.1% 16.5%
9. The electoral system which should be adopted for the upcoming election of the Palestinian Council is...
a) A simple Majority system * 39.7% 38.8% 41.2% b) Proportional Representation system ** 51.4% 51.8% 50.8% c) Don't know 08.9% 09.4% 08.0%
*candidates with the largest number of votes win **the distribution of seats is based on the percentage of votes each party wins
10. If the Palestinian opposition called for a boycott of the election for the National Authority Council, I will...
a) Boycott 19.4% 19.4% 19.3% b) Participate 67.8% 68.4% 66.7% c) Have no opinion 12.8% 12.2% 14.0%
11. Do you think that the general political elections for the Palestinian Council will be fair or unfair?
a) Fair 54.4% 56.4% 51.1% b) Unfair 22.1% 23.5% 19.8% c) Don't know 23.5% 20.1% 29.2%
12. If a Palestinian woman candidate nominated herself for elections, are you ready to elect her?
a) Yes 70.4% 75.1% 62.6% b) No 24.7% 21.2% 30.6% c) Not sure 04.9% 03.7% 06.8%
13. The electoral law stipulates that the first step in the election process is the registration of the names of voters through house visits by fieldworkers working for the Central Election Commission. When that happens will you participate in registration?
a) Yes 80.4% 80.8% 79.8% b) No 15.0% 15.1% 14.8% c) Not sure 04.6% 04.1% 05.4%
14. The political relationships between the Palestinian National Authority and the Jordanian, Syrian, and Egyptian governments are...
A. PNA-Jordan
a) Very Strong 16.7% 19.4% 12.2% b) Strong 52.6% 52.0% 53.6% c) Not Strong 17.7% 17.7% 17.6% d) Bad 05.2% 05.5% 04.7% e) Don't know 07.8% 05.4% 11.9%
B. PNA-Syria
a) Very Strong 02.3% 02.8% 01.4% b) Strong 20.7% 22.2% 18.1% c) Not Strong 30.0% 32.2% 26.3% d) Bad 28.9% 26.3% 33.3% e) Don't know 18.1% 16.5% 20.9%
C. PNA-Egypt
a) Very Strong 35.1% 28.2% 46.5% b) Strong 39.7% 43.3% 33.8% c) Not Strong 11.4% 13.3% 08.2% d) Bad 05.7% 05.6% 05.9% e) Don't Know 08.1% 09.6% 05.6%
15. The Palestinian Authority, Syrian government, and Jordanian governments' management of the peace negotiations with Israel has been...
Palestinian Authority
a) Successful 34.8% 31.7% 39.9% b) Fairly successful 40.9% 40.6% 41.3% c) A little success 12.7% 15.3% 08.2% d) Unsuccessful 08.8% 10.0% 06.8% e) Don't know 02.8% 02.4% 03.8%
Syrian government
a) Successful 27.9% 26.7% 29.8% b) Fairly successful 13.6% 15.0% 11.3% c) A little success 12.7% 12.2% 13.6% d) Unsuccessful 26.5% 28.5% 23.2% e) Don't know 19.3% 17.6% 22.1%
Jordanian government
a) Successful 65.7% 67.4% 62.9% b) Fairly successful 14.8% 13.9% 16.2% c) A little success 04.3% 04.4% 04.2% d) Unsuccessful 07.1% 08.4% 04.9% e) Don't know 08.1% 05.9% 11.7%
16. Did Jordan obtain all it's rights to land, water, and security as a result of the peace treaty with Israel?
A. Land
a) Yes 30.9% 33.4% 26.6% b) No 55.0% 54.5% 55.8% c) Don't Know 14.1% 12.1% 17.6%
B. Water
a) Yes 19.6% 23.5% 13.2% b) No 56.3% 57.3% 54.5% c) Don't Know 24.1% 19.2% 32.3%
C. Security
a) Yes 52.7% 53.2% 51.8% b) No 30.9% 33.3% 27.0% c) Don't Know 16.4% 13.5% 21.2%
17. Do you think the following statement is correct or not? "The Palestinian and Jordanian people have a special relationship not found between them and any other Arabs."
a) Correct 79.1% 82.6% 73.2% b) Not Correct 16.5% 15.7% 17.9% c) Don't Know 04.4% 01.7% 08.9%
18. Do you support the establishment of any form of unity between Jordan and Palestine in the future?
a) Yes (go to Q.19) 74.1% 74.1% 73.9% b) No 21.9% 22.1% 27.5% c) Don't Know 04.0% 03.8% 04.6%
19. (To those who said "Yes" in Q.18): What form of unity would you support
a) Complete unity 25.3% 29.1% 18.8% b) Federation 07.3% 08.0% 05.9% c) Confederation 60.6% 57.1% 66.8% d) Others (specify) 03.2% 03.0% 03.6% e) Don't know 03.6% 02.7% 04.9%
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