CPRS Polls - Survey Research Unit
Public Opinion Poll #21
Elections, Redeployment, Peace Process after Assassination of Rabin

December 7-10, 1995
B. Voting Behavior and Partisanship

The largest percentage of Palestinians (43%) announced that their selection will rest primarily on the candidates themselves. Another 23% said that they will vote for a political party, while 24% will vote for candidates from

different lists. There is no difference between West Bank and the Gaza Strip regarding this question. A majority of the residents of Jerusalem (53.8%) will vote for candidates from one party, while the largest percentage of Hebron residents (37.1). Will vote for candidates from various parties (see Table 4).

Table 4
Partisanship by Place of Interview
From One Party From Various Parties Depends on Candidate
Nablus26.0 18.348.9
Tulkarm18.3 21.154.1
Jenin25.0 20.047.5
Ramallah10.2 20.354.7
Hebron21.6 37.128.4
Bethlehem22.9 21.444.3
Jerusalem53.8 22.513.8
Gaza N.27.7 33.827.7
Gaza City23.0 28.642.9
Gaza M.16.4 21.647.0
Gaza S.20.0 18.652.9

Readiness to elect candidates can be correlated to level of education. More Bachelor degree holders will choose from various parties and based on the candidates themselves than will illiterate voters, while intention to vote for candidates from one party decreases among the educated (see Table 5).

Table 5
Partisanship by Education
From One Party From Various Parties Depends on Candidate
Illiterate28.9 20.828.3
Elementary27.7 22.539.3
Preparatory21.0 20.653.3
Secondary23.4 25.844.4
2 yr. College14.7 26.549.0
Bachelor16.5 30.342.2

C. Criteria in selecting candidates

A candidate's participation in the struggle is the most important factor for 27 % of Palestinians in their choice of a candidate. A candidate's academic attainment is of primary importance for 22 % of respondents, while 20 % value religiosity. About 19% intend to make their choices based on political affiliation and 3.4% will rely on their family relationship to the candidate. The residents of Hebron and Jericho are most concerned with candidates' religiosity, while those of Jerusalem, and North and Middle Gaza place a higher value on the candidates' participation in the struggle (see Table 6).

Table 6
Most Important Factor in Candidate Selection by Place of Interview
Political Affiliation Family Ties
Academic Attainment
Religiosity Particip. in Struggle Others
Nablus19.6 02.715.2 28.625.0 08.9
Tulkarm21.8 05.520.0 16.427.3 09.1
Jenin24.1 08.925.3 25.312.7 03.8
Ramallah20.6 04.024.6 11.920.6 18.3
Hebron06.8 03.425.6 40.220.5 03.4
Bethlehem21.1 05.618.3 12.728.2 14.1
Jerusalem19.2 ---17.9 19.239.7 03.8
Gaza N.12.3 03.135.4 09.232.3 07.7
Gaza City27.3 01.220.5 13.727.3 09.9
Gaza M.15.8 03.022.6 18.835.3 04.5
Gaza S.15.7 02.922.9 22.927.1 08.6

II. Knowledge of the Electoral Law

It was obvious from the results of the poll that Palestinians lack a good knowledge of the Electoral Law. A majority of Palestinians (55%) mistakenly think that the electoral law permits only a relative to accompany an illiterate person to the voting booth. Another 34% mistakenly think that the law permits voters to select persons from only one party. Ignorance of the details of the law is more widespread in the West Bank than in the Gaza Strip as well as among women and the elderly. There is a direct relationship between level of education and knowledge of the law's provisions, where respondents with more education were better informed about the law.

III. Role of Elected Council

About 70% of those polled believe that the elected council will play an important role in guiding the country in the right direction, while 22% declared that they are "not sure". A majority of 58% of Jerusalem residents doubt that the council will play an important role. Belief in the council's role is a noticeable influence on Palestinians' intentions to participate in the elections. Respondents who believe that the council will play an important role are more likely to participate in the elections, while those who doubt it's importance are less interested in voting (see Table 7).

Table 7
Participation in Elections by views of Council's Role
Will Boycott Will Participate
Will Have Important Role
08.6
80.7
Will Not Have Important Role
47.2
33.7
*rows do not add up to 100% because there were other choices in the question

IV. Trust in Electoral Process

A total of 68% of Palestinians trust that the election process will be free, fair, and beneficial to Palestinian autonomy. Doubt was expressed by 13 %, and 19% declared that they are not sure of the fairness of the election process. Confidence in the elections' fairness is lowest in Jerusalem (55%) and highest in Tulkarm (82.7%). Refugee camp residents are the most doubtful (see Table 8).

Table 8
Trust in Electoral Process by Place of Residence
Trust Doubt Don t Know
City72.0 05.619.4
Town69.2 14.216.7
Village67.6 16.016.4
Refugee Camp 61.617.3 21.1

Skepticism was also high among students, employees, professors, and bachelors. Trust in the elections, like belief in the council's role, affects Palestinians' intentions to participate in the elections. About 37% of those polled do not trust the electoral process and consequently will not participate, while over 80% have confidence in the process and intend to vote (see Table 9).

Table 9
Participation in Elections by Trust of Electoral Process
Boycott Participate Not Sure
Trust08.7 80.910.4
Doubt 37.3 41.321.3
Don t Know15.3 57.926.9

Participation in Elections

A majority of 71 % of the respondents said they would participate in the elections even if the opposition calls for a boycott, while 14% said they would not vote, and 15% said they are not sure.

VI. Readiness to Elect a Woman

A majority of 67% of those polled declared that they are ready to elect at least one woman candidate. It was noticed that there is no significant difference between the West Bank and Gaza concerning the readiness to elect a woman candidate. Nonetheless, the most difficult places for women candidates are expected to be the Middle and the South of Gaza. Specialists and retired Palestinians expressed the most readiness to elect women. In contrast, the readiness of students and farmers is below the average.

VII. Political Affiliation

About 55% of those polled said they will vote for Fateh and 10% support Hamas. About 25 % of Palestinians will vote for an independent candidate or no one. Gaza City residents expressed the most support (68%) for Fateh, while Harnas received the most support from Nablus residents (17.7%) (see Table 10).

Table 10
Political Affiliation by Place of Interviews
Hamas PFLP Fateh Islamic Jihad Islamic Ind. National Ind. Other No One
Nablus
17.7
03.1
50.0
---
01.5
04.6
03.1
13.1
Tulkarm
08.2
01.8
51.5
05.0
03.0
05.0
05.9
14.9
Jenin
07.5
01.3
62.5
02.5
03.8
---
01.3
20.0
Ramallah
05.0
04.2
58.3
00.8
05.0
01.7
16.7
07.5
Hebron
16.5
03.5
39.1
02.6
10.4
10.4
00.9
08.7
Bethlehem
04.5
06.0
61.2
---
04.5
04.5
01.5
11.9
Jerusalem
08.1
04.1
45.9
05.4
02.7
02.7
04.1
23.0
Gaza N.
09.2
07.7
63.1
---
01.5
03.1
03.1
09.2
Gaza City
11.1
03.9
68.0
01.3
00.7
01.3
01.3
11.1
Gaza M.
06.0
05.3
54.9
03.8
01.5
03.8
06.0
16.5
Gaza S.
07.2
02.9
58.0
05.8
02.9
01.4
01.4
17.4
*N- north, M- middle, S- south.
*DFLP, Feda, and PPP are not included in this table because of small sample size resulting in tow totals less than 100% in some cases. Results for Jericho were not included for the same reason.
*Margin of error is more than 3 % because of small sample size.

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