CPRS Polls - Survey Research Unit
Settlers Poll (1)
The Future of Israeli Settlement in the West Bank
The Department of Strategic Analysis at CPRS has supervised a public opinion poll among Israeli settlers in the West Bank. The poll is part of a project on "Final Status Negotiations: Settlements," conducted by the department. Modi'im Izrahi, an Israeli polling institution, was commissioned to conduct the poll. Interviews were carried out over the phone on December 28, 1995. The poll was also the product of cooperation between CPRS and the BESA Center for Strategic Studies at Bar Ilan University. The sample size is 511, in 79 settlements. The margin of error is +/- 4.5.

Table of Contents


Main Findings

The findings of the poll indicate the following:
  • About 40% of the settlers believe that a Palestinian state will be established in the next 5-10 years, while 26% believe the peace process will fail and Israeli forces will reoccupy Palestinian territory.

  • About 22% believe that most settlements will be dismantled in 5 to 10 years, while 21% think that most settlements will be annexed to Israel.

  • About 30% are ready to leave settlements in exchange for fair compensation from the Israeli government, but 58% are not willing to consider that.

  • About 31% of the settlers refuse to accept a government resolution to evacuate settlements under any conditions. But 58% would accept such a resolution under certain conditions.

  • About 16% are willing to live under Palestinian sovereignty and 71% refuse to do so.

  • Over 15% are willing to sell their property to a Palestinian buyer, and 72% are not willing to do so.

  • About 8% are ready to use force to resist evacuation, 83% are not ready to do so. But only 2% would advocate such measures in confrontation with the Israeli armed forces to prevent evacuation.

  • About 38% of the settlers came to live in the West Bank for economic reasons; 34% for religious-ideological reasons; 1% for security reasons; and the rest for family and social reasons.

  • About 16% think the current peace process will lead to improvement in Palestinian-settler relations; 36% believe it will worsen the relationship; and 32% think it will have no impact.

Who Are the Israeli Settlers?

The poll shows that most settlers are well-educated and have an above-average income. Most immigrated to Israel before 1988. About 45% of them define themselves as Orthodox or ultra-Orthodox, while 20% see themselves as "traditional" and 34% as secular. About 51% of the settlers work inside Israel and 49% work in the West Bank. Only 20% of them own houses inside Israel. Most settlers (70%) were born in Israel and the rest came from Asian-African countries (10%); the former Soviet Union (6%); Europe and North America (10%). About 40% are Sephardi, 39% are Ashkinazi, and 21% have Israeli-born parents.

Sample Distribution

(1) Age: (6) Place of Birth:
18-2416.2 Asia-Africa (excl. Israel) 10.2
25-3435.6 USSR5.5
35-4429.9 Western Europe 4.3
45-5412.3 USA/Canada 5.3
55-644.3 Other 5.3
65 and over1.6 Native Israeli: Father born in Israel 21.2
(2) Sex: Native Israeli: Father born in Asia/Africa 29.4
Male47.8 Native Israeli: Father born in Eur/America 18.8
Female52.2
(3) Immig. Year: (7) Religious Orientations:
Before 198883.2 Ultra-Orthodox 8.4
After 198816.8 Orthodox 37
(4) Education: Traditional 20.5
Elementary or less 1Secular 33.9
Partial High School 7.5
High School38.1 (8) Place of Work:
Above High School18.9 Inside Israel 51
Partial Academic Studies 7.1In the West Bank 49
Academic Degree27.5 (9) Own a House Inside Israel?
(5) Income: (Israel's Aver. 4600 NIS) Yes20
Far Below Average 10.2No 80
Little Below Average 12
Average26.3
Little Above Average 31.1
Far Above Average 18.8

Results

1) When you first moved to Judea and Samaria (West Bank), what
were the primary considerations that motivated you?
1. Economic considerations				37.8%
2. Religious/ideological considerations    		33.5%
3. To defend the security of the state     		00.8%
4. Social considerations (to be with friends)    	13.9%
5. I arrived with my parents (I came as a		09.6%
young child/I was born here)        
6. Others						04.3%
2) How do you view the impact of the peace process between Israel
and the Palestinians on the relationship between the settlers and the
Palestinians in the shorts run?
1. It will improve the relationship			15.9%
   between the settlers and the Palestinians      

2. It will worsen the relationship between 36.4% the settlers and the Palestinians 3. It will not have an impact on the relationship between the two sides 31.7% 4. Don't Know 16.0%

3) Given the current status of the peace process between Israel
and the Palestinians, where do you think things will be five to
ten years from now?
 1. Self-rule will be contained and not			18.4%
    develop to become a Palestinian state       
 2. A Palestinian state will be established		38.7% 
    in Judea and Samaria (West Bank).     
 3. The peace process will fail, and the IDF		26.0%
    will return to exert control over Judea 
    and Samaria (West Bank).  
 4. Don't Know/ No Response				16.8%
4) What will be, in your opinion, the status of the settlements
in Judea and Samaria (West Bank) in five to ten years?
 1. Most will be annexed to Israel			20.5%
 2. The status quo will remain				18.0%
 3. Most will stay within Palestinian			16.0%
    territory with extra territorial status      
 4. Most will be under Palestinian sovereignty		04.7%
    and the settlers will be allowed to stay as 
    permanent residents
 5. Most settlements will be dismantled			22.3%
 6. Don't know						18.4%
5) Would you seriously consider leaving your settlement in exchange
for fair compensation from the Israeli government? 
 1. Yes							29.5%
 2. No							57.5%
 3. Don't know/ Not Applicable				12.9%
6) If a Palestinian state should rise in five to ten years from
today, would you consider staying on the settlement as a citizen
of Israel under Palestinian sovereignty? 
 1. Yes							15.7%
 2. No							71.4%
 3. Don't know						12.9%
7) Would you seriously consider a fair business offer from a Palestinian to buy your home or business on the settlement?
 1. Yes							15.3%
 2. No							71.6%
 3. Don't know/ Not Applicable				13.2%
8)  Would you be willing to accept a government resolution to
evacuate the Jewish settlements in Judea and Samaria (West Bank)?
If so, under what conditions?
 1. Would not accept under any conditions		30.8%
 2. Would accept only if the resolution			22.7%
    was adopted by a special Jewish majority  
    of the Knesset (i.e., by at least two-thirds 
    of the Jewish members of Knesset)
 3. Would accept even if the resolution was		15.1%
    adopted by a regular Jewish majority of the 
    Knesset.
 4. Would accept even if the resolution was		20.6%
    adopted by a regular majority of the Knesset 
    (i.e. without consideration of it being Jewish 
    or Arab).     
 5. Don't Know/ No Response				10.8%
9) Would you consider resisting in force (i.e. use of fire arms
or other lethal weapons) a government ordered evacuation of the
settlements in Judea and Samaria (West Bank)?
 1. Yes							07.8%
 2. No							82.6%
 3. Don't know/ No Response				09.6%
10) Do you advocate or oppose confrontations between the Jewish
residents of Judea and Samaria (West Bank) and the IDF in the
following situation: Evacuation of settlements in Judea and Samaria
(West Bank)
 1. Oppose any confrontation with the IDF		60.6%
 2. Advocate verbal confrontation only			16.5%
 3. Advocate passive physical confrontation only	14.5%
    (passive resistance)      
 4. Advocate active confrontatias well (hitting,	02.2%
    use of lethal weapons, etc).     
 5. Undecided/don't know				06.3%

11) Where do you work?
 1. In Judea and Samaria (west Bank), or		37.6%
 2. On the western side of the Green Line		39.7%
 3. Don't work						22.7%

12) Do you have, under the ownership of a family member who lives
with you, a place of residence in Israel, i.e., on the western
side of the green line?
 1. Yes							19.4%
 2. No							80.0%
 3. Others						00.6%
13) How do you define yourself in terms of religious orientation?
 1. Ultra-orthodox					08.4%
 2. Orthodox						37.0%
 3. Traditional						20.5%
 4. Secular						33.9%
 5. Others						00.2%

14) For which party did you vote in the most recent Knesset elections
(June 1992)?
 1. Likud						25.6%
 2. Labor						12.5%
 3. Meretz						01.2%
 4. Tzomet						09.0%
 5. Moledet						03.3%
 6. Tmiyah						04.3%
 7. NRP							14.9%
 8. Yahadut HaTorah (Agudat Yisrael			03.1%
    + Degel Ha Torah)
 9. Shas						03.5%
10. Did not vote					14.5%
11. Others/ No Response					08.1%

15) The average monthly income per family in Israel is about 4600
NIS (net). Is your family's monthly income average, below average,
or above average?
 1. Far below average					10.2%
 2. A little below average				12.0%
 3. Average						26.3%
 4. A little above average				31.1%
 5. Far above average					18.8%

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