The Department of Strategic Analysis at CPRS has supervised a public opinion poll among Israeli settlers in the West Bank. The poll is part of a project on "Final Status Negotiations: Settlements," conducted by the department. Modi'im Izrahi, an Israeli polling institution, was commissioned to conduct the poll. Interviews were carried out over the phone on December 28, 1995. The poll was also the product of cooperation between CPRS and the BESA Center for Strategic Studies at Bar Ilan University. The sample size is 511, in 79 settlements. The margin of error is +/- 4.5.
The findings of the poll indicate the following:
- About 40% of the settlers believe that a Palestinian state will be established in the next 5-10 years, while 26% believe the peace process will fail and Israeli forces will reoccupy Palestinian territory.
- About 22% believe that most settlements will be dismantled in 5 to 10 years, while 21% think that most settlements will be annexed to Israel.
- About 30% are ready to leave settlements in exchange for fair compensation from the Israeli government, but 58% are not willing to consider that.
- About 31% of the settlers refuse to accept a government resolution to evacuate settlements under any conditions. But 58% would accept such a resolution under certain conditions.
- About 16% are willing to live under Palestinian sovereignty and 71% refuse to do so.
- Over 15% are willing to sell their property to a Palestinian buyer, and 72% are not willing to do so.
- About 8% are ready to use force to resist evacuation, 83% are not ready to do so. But only 2% would advocate such measures in confrontation with the Israeli armed forces to prevent evacuation.
- About 38% of the settlers came to live in the West Bank for economic reasons; 34% for religious-ideological reasons; 1% for security reasons; and the rest for family and social reasons.
- About 16% think the current peace process will lead to improvement in Palestinian-settler relations; 36% believe it will worsen the relationship; and 32% think it will have no impact.
The poll shows that most settlers are well-educated and have an above-average income. Most immigrated to Israel before 1988. About 45% of them define themselves as Orthodox or ultra-Orthodox, while 20% see themselves as "traditional" and 34% as secular. About 51% of the settlers work inside Israel and 49% work in the West Bank. Only 20% of them own houses inside Israel. Most settlers (70%) were born in Israel and the rest came from Asian-African countries (10%); the former Soviet Union (6%); Europe and North America (10%). About 40% are Sephardi, 39% are Ashkinazi, and 21% have Israeli-born parents.
(1) Age: (6) Place of Birth: 18-24 16.2 Asia-Africa (excl. Israel) 10.2 25-34 35.6 USSR 5.5 35-44 29.9 Western Europe 4.3 45-54 12.3 USA/Canada 5.3 55-64 4.3 Other 5.3 65 and over 1.6 Native Israeli: Father born in Israel 21.2 (2) Sex: Native Israeli: Father born in Asia/Africa 29.4 Male 47.8 Native Israeli: Father born in Eur/America 18.8 Female 52.2 (3) Immig. Year: (7) Religious Orientations: Before 1988 83.2 Ultra-Orthodox 8.4 After 1988 16.8 Orthodox 37 (4) Education: Traditional 20.5 Elementary or less 1 Secular 33.9 Partial High School 7.5 High School 38.1 (8) Place of Work: Above High School 18.9 Inside Israel 51 Partial Academic Studies 7.1 In the West Bank 49 Academic Degree 27.5 (9) Own a House Inside Israel? (5) Income: (Israel's Aver. 4600 NIS) Yes 20 Far Below Average 10.2 No 80 Little Below Average 12 Average 26.3 Little Above Average 31.1 Far Above Average 18.8
1) When you first moved to Judea and Samaria (West Bank), what were the primary considerations that motivated you?
1. Economic considerations 37.8% 2. Religious/ideological considerations 33.5% 3. To defend the security of the state 00.8% 4. Social considerations (to be with friends) 13.9% 5. I arrived with my parents (I came as a 09.6% young child/I was born here) 6. Others 04.3%
2) How do you view the impact of the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians on the relationship between the settlers and the Palestinians in the shorts run?
1. It will improve the relationship 15.9% between the settlers and the Palestinians
2. It will worsen the relationship between 36.4% the settlers and the Palestinians 3. It will not have an impact on the relationship between the two sides 31.7% 4. Don't Know 16.0%
3) Given the current status of the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians, where do you think things will be five to ten years from now?
1. Self-rule will be contained and not 18.4% develop to become a Palestinian state 2. A Palestinian state will be established 38.7% in Judea and Samaria (West Bank). 3. The peace process will fail, and the IDF 26.0% will return to exert control over Judea and Samaria (West Bank). 4. Don't Know/ No Response 16.8%
4) What will be, in your opinion, the status of the settlements in Judea and Samaria (West Bank) in five to ten years?
1. Most will be annexed to Israel 20.5% 2. The status quo will remain 18.0% 3. Most will stay within Palestinian 16.0% territory with extra territorial status 4. Most will be under Palestinian sovereignty 04.7% and the settlers will be allowed to stay as permanent residents 5. Most settlements will be dismantled 22.3% 6. Don't know 18.4%
5) Would you seriously consider leaving your settlement in exchange for fair compensation from the Israeli government?
1. Yes 29.5% 2. No 57.5% 3. Don't know/ Not Applicable 12.9%
6) If a Palestinian state should rise in five to ten years from today, would you consider staying on the settlement as a citizen of Israel under Palestinian sovereignty?
1. Yes 15.7% 2. No 71.4% 3. Don't know 12.9%
7) Would you seriously consider a fair business offer from a Palestinian to buy your home or business on the settlement?
1. Yes 15.3% 2. No 71.6% 3. Don't know/ Not Applicable 13.2%
8) Would you be willing to accept a government resolution to evacuate the Jewish settlements in Judea and Samaria (West Bank)? If so, under what conditions?
1. Would not accept under any conditions 30.8% 2. Would accept only if the resolution 22.7% was adopted by a special Jewish majority of the Knesset (i.e., by at least two-thirds of the Jewish members of Knesset) 3. Would accept even if the resolution was 15.1% adopted by a regular Jewish majority of the Knesset. 4. Would accept even if the resolution was 20.6% adopted by a regular majority of the Knesset (i.e. without consideration of it being Jewish or Arab). 5. Don't Know/ No Response 10.8%
9) Would you consider resisting in force (i.e. use of fire arms or other lethal weapons) a government ordered evacuation of the settlements in Judea and Samaria (West Bank)?
1. Yes 07.8% 2. No 82.6% 3. Don't know/ No Response 09.6%
10) Do you advocate or oppose confrontations between the Jewish residents of Judea and Samaria (West Bank) and the IDF in the following situation: Evacuation of settlements in Judea and Samaria (West Bank)
1. Oppose any confrontation with the IDF 60.6% 2. Advocate verbal confrontation only 16.5% 3. Advocate passive physical confrontation only 14.5% (passive resistance) 4. Advocate active confrontatias well (hitting, 02.2% use of lethal weapons, etc). 5. Undecided/don't know 06.3%
11) Where do you work?
1. In Judea and Samaria (west Bank), or 37.6% 2. On the western side of the Green Line 39.7% 3. Don't work 22.7%
12) Do you have, under the ownership of a family member who lives with you, a place of residence in Israel, i.e., on the western side of the green line?
1. Yes 19.4% 2. No 80.0% 3. Others 00.6%
13) How do you define yourself in terms of religious orientation?
1. Ultra-orthodox 08.4% 2. Orthodox 37.0% 3. Traditional 20.5% 4. Secular 33.9% 5. Others 00.2%
14) For which party did you vote in the most recent Knesset elections (June 1992)?
1. Likud 25.6% 2. Labor 12.5% 3. Meretz 01.2% 4. Tzomet 09.0% 5. Moledet 03.3% 6. Tmiyah 04.3% 7. NRP 14.9% 8. Yahadut HaTorah (Agudat Yisrael 03.1% + Degel Ha Torah) 9. Shas 03.5% 10. Did not vote 14.5% 11. Others/ No Response 08.1%
15) The average monthly income per family in Israel is about 4600 NIS (net). Is your family's monthly income average, below average, or above average?
1. Far below average 10.2% 2. A little below average 12.0% 3. Average 26.3% 4. A little above average 31.1% 5. Far above average 18.8%