CPRS Polls - Survey Research Unit
Palestinian Elections
Election-Day Survey, 20 January 1996
Political Attitudes of Voters

a) Religiosity

44% of voters described themselves as religious, 49% as fairly religious and the rest (7%) as not religious. 48% in refugee camps, 46% in villages and 39% in cities of the participants described themselves as religious. Also, religious identification increases among men and women with an increase of age, 70% of the respondents over 50 years old described themselves as religious while 36% of the youth described themselves as so. There is also a noticeable relationship between family income and religiosity; those who earn lower incomes are more religious than those of higher incomes. Male youths were the least the least likely to describe themselves as religious (30%) compared with older women (63%). Moreover, there was a great discrepancy between in relation to religious identification between those who voted for Yasser Arafat and Samiha Khalil; 45% of Arafat's supporters described themselves as religious against 28% who voted for Samiha Khalil.

b) Attitudes Towards Oslo Agreement

Fifty percent of voters expressed their support towards the Oslo agreement, while 17% opposed it, and the reminder (33%) were wavered in between support and opposition. (Note, similar results were obtained in recent CPRS surveys.)

c) Amendment of the Palestinian National Charter

The results of this poll showed an overall even distribution of opinion among Palestinians regarding amendment of the Palestinian National Charter, in respect to recognition of the state of Israel and refrainment from armed attacks against Israeli targets. Thirty eight percent supported amendment of the Charter, while 36.7% has opposed it, 25.3% were in between support and opposition. There was a relationship between age of respondent and support of amendment of the Charter, as older people tend to be more supportive. Also, those who are more educated are more likely to oppose the amendment (see Table No. 2). Support for amendment was higher in the West Bank than in Gaza Strip, which is partially due to higher levels of participation in the elections by the supporters of Hamas and PFLP in the Gaza Strip than in the West Bank.

Table No. 2: Amendment of Palestinian National Charter
Support Oppose No Opinion
Age categories 18-2531.8% 40.6%27.6%
26-33 38.1%37.3% 24.6%
34-41 41.1%34.6% 24.3%
42-49 42.0%36.3% 21.8%
50-57 42.3%30.9% 26.8%
Over 50 45.5%30.3% 24.3%
Education Elementary or less 44.2%29.6% 26.2%
Preparatory 38.5%31.0% 30.5%
Secondary 34.7%39.3% 26.1%
College 40.0%43.7% 16.4%
University 28.9%51.6% 19.5%

The respondents opposed to amendment of Charter reached 46.3% among those affiliated with opposition factions (Hamas, Islamic Jihad, PFLP & DFLP) compared with 29.8% of those who are affiliated with Fateh (Yasser Arafat's party). Furthermore, opposition towards the amendment reached 55% among those who voted for Samiha Khalil, but only 33% among those who voted for Yasser Arafat.

d) Political Parties

All Palestinian political parties participated in the elections, regardless of pre-election positions on participation in elections (i.e. to participate or boycott). The overall sample distribution of political party affiliation is as follows: 57.4% Fateh, 6.9% Hamas, 4.5% PFLP, 3.3% Hizb Al-Sha'b, 2.0% Islamic Jihad and less than 1.0% for both Feda and DFLP and the rest (24.5%) Independents. Note, these results do not substantially vary from those regularly obtained by CPRS, except for Hamas which usually gains more than 12% of support.

The Electoral Process

The majority of voters evaluated the elections positively, as 57% expressed that the electoral law was fair and 64% declared that the electoral process was fair. Older people were most likely to believe that both the electoral process and law are fair. The percentage of positive assessment towards the electoral process and law decreases with the increase of education. Also, trust in the elections increases among voters as income levels decline (see Table No. 3).

Table No. 3: Trust towards Fairness of Electoral Law and Elections
Do you think that the electoral law is fair?
Do you think that the electoral process is fair?
Yes
To Some Extent
No
Don't Know
Yes
To Some Extent
No
Don't Know
Age18-25
54%
20%
6%
21%
56%
19%
5%
19%
26-33
51%
25%
6%
18%
63%
17%
4%
17%
34-49
61%
20%
6%
14%
69%
15%
4%
12%
Over 50
67%
15%
5%
13%
73%
11%
4%
12%
Monthly200 or less
61%
15%
4%
19%
65%
13%
4%
17%
Income/JD200-400
53%
27%
5%
15%
61%
20%
4%
15%
400
50%
27%
9%
13%
67%
18%
4%
11%
Education Elementary
67%
12%
4%
17%
71%
10%
3%
15%
Preparatory
58%
19%
4%
19%
61%
16%
4%
18%
Secondary
55%
22%
5%
17%
64%
17%
5%
14%
Post- Secondary
44%
32%
9%
15%
57%
23%
5%
15%

The results also show that there is a relationship between voters' political party affiliation and the assessment of election; 72% of those who are affiliated with Fateh declared that the elections were fair while 54% of all other parties thought so. Also, only 3% of those who voted for Arafat stated that the elections were not fair compared with 13% of those who voted for Samiha Khalil.

Criteria in selecting candidates

Ninty-three percent of voters described their favorite candidate as educated, 87.8% described him/her as possessing valued morality, 84% as a struggler, 79.7% as having served his/her district, 51.7% as religious, and 42.2% as a descendant from notable family.

The results showed that the most significant criterion in selecting candidates was the participation in the national struggle while religiosity came second. The next important criterion is the morality as well as candidate's services to the district, thereafter the candidate's level of education. The less important criterion was candid's decent from a notable family. Regarding role of family, 34% declared that one of their relatives was among candidates, and of those half voted for their relatives while the other half (17%) didn't.

Expectations for the Elected Council

The expectation for the elected council was that it upholds the general national interest. The voters believed that the elected council will play an important role in making decisive decisions. The expectations for the elected council were higher among the less educated people as 74% declared that the council will play an important role, while 47% of university graduates shared the same expectations. Also, attitudes varied in this respect between those who voted for Arafat and Samiha Khalil, as 68% of Arafat supporters indicated that the council will have an important role, while 35% of Samiha Khalil's voters indicated same expectation.

To emphasize the importance of the elected council, 41% of voters support the idea of decisive issues to be in the hands of elected council members, 30% support the idea of these decisions to be in the hands of PNA president, 15% in the hands of the national council and 8% in the hands of the executive committee of the PLO. 38% of women support the idea that the president should enjoy authority in decision-making, but men were more supportive of the idea that the decision-making should be in the hands of the elected council. There is a relationship between education and views on the role of the PNA president vs. the council on decision-making. Thirteen percent of the educated prefer that the decisive decisions in the hand of the PNA president. But among those with less education, 42% shared same opinion. As for the elected council, 48% of educated people believed that it will be capable in making the right decisions, and 36% of those who are less educated shared same opinion. Among those who voted for Samiha Khalil, 37% believed that decisio-making should be in the hands of the elected council, 19% in the hands of national council, 17% in the hands of the PNA president. Among those who voted for Yasser Arafat, 42% wanted decision-making to be in the hands of the council, 32% in the hands of president, and 15% in the hands of the national council.

Overall, Palestinians oppose the view that decision-making authority be vested in one person. This observation is based on the finding that 80% of voters support the idea that council's authorities to be either equal or wider than that of president's. Also, education is an important factor in forming views of voters on this matter, as 38% of the less educated segment support the idea that the council should have wider authorities than the president and 50% of university graduates shared same opinion. Moreover, support was greater for the domination of council among those who affiliated with opposition factions rather than those who affiliated with Fateh. Also, 61% of those who voted for Samiha Khalil supported dominance and authority of council against the presidency compared with 38% of Arafat supporters.

Priorities

Among Palestinians there is great support for human rights and freedom of the press. 66.6% of voters declared that PNA should guarantee freedoms and rights subject to the law, even in cases where contradictions might arise between freedom and rights and what PNA viewed as national interest.

Among other vital issues which concern Palestinians and which they expect the elected council to play a major role in the final negotiations with Israel. Thirty one percent expressed that this is the most important issue that concerns them. The second most important issue as seen by the voters was economic development and unemployment (28%). There was also a great concern of securing stability and security with 22%, and promotion of democracy with 18%.

Eighty percent of voters expected that candidates' concerns should be the national interest and serving society in general and not to be devoted to personal or family interests. Also 90% of voters demanded that the interests of candidates should revolve around the Palestinian society in general and not on the electoral districts they represent. Of those who voted for Samiha Khalil, 31% declared that the council members will be more concerned in their own personal and family interests.

As for electoral campaign promises, 43% of voters believed that once elected these candidates would fulfill their promises, 47% believed that they will fulfill their promises to a certain extent, while the remaining 10% believed that the candidates will not fulfill their promises.

PNA Presidency

Eighty five percent of voters declared that Yasser Arafat is the most qualified for leading the Palestinian people from among the presidency candidates. On the other hand, 4.5% thought that Samiha Khalil is more qualified. Seven percent of voters thought that none of the candidates were qualified.

As for voting patterns for the candidates, more women voted for Yasser Arafat than men, while votes for Samiha Khalil came from men and women proportionately, with a slight increase in the percentage of men's votes. This was related to gender, age and education levels. Among those who voted for Arafat, the highest percentage of votes was among women aged 34 or over. In the case of Samiha Khalil, voters were evenly distributed between men and women aged 34 years or younger. There is clear relationship between voting for both candidates and voters levels of education; the percentage voting for Arafat decreases as education level increases and in the case of Samiha Khalil voting increases as the level of education increases. There was a higher support for Arafat in Gaza Strip than in the West Bank.

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