Election-Day Survey, 20 January 1996
Elections' Results of the Legislative CouncilCPRS was able to accurately predict the results for 74 winning candidates. Whereas the other 14 candidates were so close to their opponents in votes that it was difficult to confirm these results. Quota allocations for religious minorities influenced the order of the winning lists in certain districts. Exit polls can generally predict the results of the elections within a few hours of commencement of voting process, especially when the turn-out rate is high at the beginning of the process. (Appendix No. 2 lists the winning candidates according to the official results declared by the Central Elections Committee, together with a list of the predicted results from the CPRS exit poll).
Total West Bank Gaza Strip
1) In your view, from among the candidates for the Presidency, who is the best qualified to lead the Palestinian people?
(a) Yasser Arafat 85.4% 85.6% 85.1% (b) Samiha Khalil 04.5% 04.7% 04.1% (c) Both candidates 03.0% 02.7% 03.5% (d) None of the candidates 07.1% 06.9% 07.3%
2) Do you expect that the elected council will have an important role in decision-making regarding decisive issues in Palestinian politics?
(a) It will have an important 63.4% 62.2% 65.4% role (b) It will to some extent 29.4% 30.9% 26.7% (c) It will not have an 07.2% 06.8% 07.9% important role.
3) Do you think that the elected council will be capable of leading successful negotiations regarding permanent status issues (Jerusalem, settlements, borders, and refugees)?
(a) Yes 51.4% 52.5% 51.2% (b) To some extent 36.9% 38.1% 34.8% (c) No 11.7% 10.4% 14.0%
4) Do you think the election law is:
(a) Fair 57.0% 57.3% 56.5% (b) Fair, to some extent 20.4% 18.2% 24.2% (c) Not fair 05.5% 05.9% 04.9% (d) Do not know 17.0% 18.6% 14.3%
5) Do you think the election process has been:
(a) Fair 63.9% 65.4% 61.3% (b) Fair, to some extent 16.3% 14.5% 19.5% (c) Not fair 04.2% 03.4% 05.5% (d) Do not know 15.7% 16.8% 13.7%
6) In your view, key decisions should be in the hands of:
(a) The elected (legislative) 40.8% 41.3% 40.0% Palestinian Council. (b) The Palestinian National 15.8% 16.9% 13.8% Council. (c) The President of the PNA 30.1% 28.4% 33.0% (d) The PLO Executive Committee 08.3% 08.4% 08.1% (e) None of the Above 05.1% 05.0% 05.2%
7) In your view, the elected Palestinian Council should enjoy:
(a) More authority than that of 40.1% 41.5% 38.5% the president. (b) Less authority than that of 20.5% 19.3% 22.5% the president. (c) Equal authority to that of 39.4% 39.6% 39.0% the president.
8) Do you think that the elected members of the Palestinian Council will be concerned more with the interests of society or with their personal and family interests?
(a) Interests of society 80.3% 79.5% 81.7% (b) Personal and family interests 19.7% 20.5% 18.3%
9) In general, you describe yourself as:
A (a) Religious 44.4% 42.1% 48.4% (b) Fairly religious 48.6% 49.3% 47.3% (c) Not religious 07.1% 08.7% 04.2% B (a) Opposed to the Oslo Agreements 16.5% 14.3% 20.2% (b) Supporting of the Oslo 50.3% 49.2% 47.3% Agreements (c) Between support and 33.2% 36.5% 27.8% opposition.
10) In these elections, did you vote for a candidate from your family?
(a) There were no candidates 54.1% 56.1% 50.7% from any family in the race. (b) I voted for a candidate(s) 17.6% 16.1% 20.1% from my family. (c) I did not vote for a 16.9% 15.6% 19.3% candidate(s) from my family. (d) Other 11.4% 12.2% 09.9%
11) Do you think that those for whom you have voted should focus their energies on:
(a) Serving their electoral 09.8% 10.3% 09.0% district. (b) Serving society as a whole 90.0% 89.5% 91.0%
12) Which of the following political trends do you support?
(a) PPP 03.3% 04.0% 02.2% (b) PFLP 04.5% 04.0% 05.4% (c) Fateh 57.4% 57.1% 57.9% (d) Hamas 06.9% 05.2% 10.0% (e) DFLP 00.6% 00.8% 00.3% (f) Islamic Jihad 02.0% 02.0% 02.0% (g) Feda 00.7% 00.9% 00.3% (h) Independent Islamists 04.3% 03.8% 05.3% (i) Independent Nationalists 11.3% 12.7% 08.9% (j) No one 06.9% 07.7% 05.6% (k) Others, specify _____________ 02.0% 01.8% 02.3%
13) In pursuing work, the Palestinian Authority sometimes may confront situations in which there might be a contradiction between freedom of the press and human rights and what the Authority may see as a national interest. In such situations, which of the following positions, do you support?
(a) Guaranteeing freedom of the 66.6% 65.6% 68.4%
press & human rights
according to the law.
(b) What the Palestinian Authority 20.4% 20.4% 20.3%
sees as a national interest
including the imposition of
restrictions on press freedom
and Palestinian human rights,
if the authority sees a need for
that.
(c) I do not know 12.9% 14.0% 11.1%
14) Which of the following do you see as the most important issue confronting Palestinian society and the one that must be addressed?
(a) To complete negotiations with 30.9% 30.9% 31.0%
Israel.
(b) To solve economic problems, 28.5% 22.6% 38.6%
including unemployment.
(c) To achieve democracy and 17.9% 20.2% 14.0%
freedom of expression.
(d) To maintain order and security 22.7% 26.3% 16.4%
15) From among the above issues, which is the second most important?
(a) To complete negotiations with 18.0% 16.0% 20.9%
Israel.
(b) To solve economic problems, 38.2% 36.8% 40.3%
including unemployment.
(c) To achieve democracy and 17.1% 18.2% 15.6%
freedom of expression.
(d) To maintain order and security 26.6% 29.0% 23.2%
16) If you want to objectively and honestly describe your preferred candidate (from among those you voted for), would you describe him or her as:
Religious (a) Yes 51.7% 45.3% 61.8% (b) In between 30.1% 33.6% 24.8% (c) No 05.6% 06.5% 04.3% (d) Do not know 12.5% 14.7% 09.0% From a notable family (a) Yes 42.2% 41.4% 43.6% (b) In between 30.9% 30.8% 31.0% (c) No 16.2% 17.1% 15.0% (d) Do not know 10.6% 10.7% 10.5% Having moral values (a) Yes 87.8% 86.3% 90.2% (b) In between 06.1% 06.9% 04.7% (c) No 01.4% 01.2% 01.8% (d) Do not know 04.7% 05.5% 03.3% A national struggler (a) Yes 84.3% 84.8% 83.4% (b) In between 08.3% 07.1% 10.3% (c) No 02.4% 02.3% 02.6% (d) Do not know 05.0% 05.8% 03.7% Having served his/her district (a) Yes 79.7% 79.0% 80.0% (b) In between 10.0% 10.2% 09.8% (c) No 02.6% 02.4% 03.0% (d) Do not know 07.6% 08.4% 06.3% Educated (a) Yes 93.0% 91.9% 94.8% (b) In between 03.3% 04.1% 02.2% (c) No 01.0% 00.9% 01.1% (d) Do not know 02.7% 03.1% 02.0%
17) Which of the above mentioned qualities was the most important factor in the selection of your preferred candidate?
(a) Religiosity 24.1% 23.2% 25.6% (b) Belonging to a notable family 03.4% 03.6% 05.6% (c) Valued morality 17.0% 17.9% 15.7% (d) National struggle 27.4% 27.7% 26.8% (e) Serving district 16.3% 19.2% 12.0% (f) Education 11.7% 08.5% 16.6%
18) The Taba or Oslo II Agreement stipulates that the Palestinian National Council should amend the National Charter two months after elections in order to recognize Israel's right to exist and stop the use of armed attacks against Israelis. Do you support such an amendment?
(a) Yes 39.5% 40.6% 36.2% (b) No 38.3% 34.0% 44.5% (c) I do not know 22.2% 25.4% 19.3%
19) Do you think the candidates for whom you have voted will fulfill their election campaign promises?
(a) Yes 42.8% 44.3% 40.3% (b) To some extent 47.4% 45.8% 50.1% (c) No 09.7% 09.8% 09.6%
Ahmad Zghayar*
Bassam Walweel*
* too close to call
Comparison between CPRS Results and those
of the Central Election Commission
1- Hashem Daraghmeh
1- Hashem Daraghmeh 1- Hikmat Zeid* 1- Burhan Jarrar
2- Burhan Jarrar*
2- Jamal Shati 3- Jamal Shati 3- Hikmat Zeid
4- Abdullah Qabha
4- Azzam El-Ahmad 5- Ahmad Rsheid 5- Ahmad Rsheid
6- Isam Essaleh 6- Fakhri Turkman
1- Sa'eb Eriekat 1- Sa'eb Ereikat
1- Hanan Ashrawi 1- Ahmad Qrei'
2- Ahmad Qrei' 2- Hanan Ashrawi
3- Ahmad El-Batsh
3- Ahmad El-Batsh 4- Hatem Abdel Qader
4- Ziad Abu Zayyad 5- Ziad Abu Zayyad
5- Hatem Abdel Qader 6- Zahira Kamal 6- Ahmad Zghayar
7- Emil Jarjou'i, Rana Nashashibi,
7- Emil Jarjou'i
1- Abdel Jawwad Saleh
1- Abdel Jawwad Saleh
2- Qadura Fares 2- Qadura Fares
3- Azmi Sh'eibi 3- Abdel Fattah Hamayel
4- Mustafa Barghouti*
4- Jamil Tarifi 5- Jamil Tarifi* 5- Azmi Sh'eibi
6- Marwan Barghouti*
7- Marwan Barghouti 7- Abdel Fattah Hamayel*
8- (Ghazi Hanania)
8- Ghazi Hanania
1- Tayeb Abdel Rahim
1- Tayeb Adel Rahim 2- Suleiman Zheiri
2- Mufid Abed Rabbo 3- Mufid Abed Rabbo
3- Hakam Bal'awi 4- Adnan Bleidi, Hakam Bal'awi
4- Hasan Kreisheh
1- Salih Mara'bah
1- Mohammad Da'as 2- Othman Ghashash, Mahmoud Da'as,
2- Othman Ghashash
1- Hisham Abdul Razeq
1- Yousef Abu Safiyeh
2- Yousef Abu Safiyeh
2- Fouad Eid 3- Foua Eid 3- Hisham Abdel Razeq
4- Abdel Rahman Hamad
4- Abdel Rahman Hamad
5- Kamal Shrafi 5- Kamal Shrafi
6- Karam Zandah 6- Kamal Shrafi
7- Imad Falouji 7- Imad Falouji
1- Heidar Abdul Shafi
1- Heidar Abdul Shafi
2- Fakhri Shakura
2- Fakhri Shakura 3- Nahed Rayes 3- Nahed Rayes
4- Intisar El-Wazir
4- Intisar El-Wazir 5- Riyad Za'nun 5- Riyad Za'nun
6- Ziad Abu Amr 6- Ziad Abu Amr
7- Wajih Yaghi 7- Wajih Yaghi
8- Musa Za'but 8- Musa Za'but
9- Marwan Kanafani
9- Marwan Kanafani 10- Rawiya Shawa 10- Yousef Shanti
11- Yousef Shanti
11- Rawiya Shawa 12- Sa'id Mishal 12- Faraj Sarraf
1- Ahmad Eddik 1- Ahmad Eddik
1- Abed Rabbo Abu On
1- Abed RAbu On 2- Mohammad Hijazi
2- Mohammad Hijazi 3- Abdel Aziz Shahin
3- Rawhi Fattuh 4- Rawhi Ahmad Fattuh
4- Abdel Aziz Shahin 5- Abdullah Abu Samhadaneh
5- Suleiman Rumi
1- Nabil Sha'ath 1- Nabil Sha'ath
2- Jawad Tibi 2- Jawad Tibi
3- Ahmad Nasr 3- Ra'fat Najjar
4- Ra'fat Najjar 4- Ibrahim Abu Naja
5- Ahmad Shibi 5- Ahmad Shibi
6- Hasan Asfour 6- Hasan Asfour
7- Ibrahim Abu Naja
7- Ahmad Nasr 8- Fayez Abu Shamaleh
8- Abdel Karim Abu Salah
1- Sa'di Karanz* 1- Freih Abu Middein
2- Freih Abu Middein*
2- Sa'di Karanz 3- Jamileh Seidem
3- Jamileh Seidem 4- Jalal Msadder 4- Ibrahim Habbash
5- Zaher Afghani 5- Jalal Msadder
1- Abbas Zaki 1- Abbas Zaki
2- Jamal Shoubaki*
2- Jamal Shoubaki 3- Musa Abu Sabha*
3- Jamal Shoubaki 4- Nabil Amr 4- Nabil Amr
5- Mohammad Horani
5- Mohammad Horani 6- Rafiq Natsheh 6- Rafiq Natsheh
7- Suleiman Abu Sneineh*
7- Zahran Abu Qbeitah
8- Abulfahed Tneineh*
8- Ali Abu Rish Zahran Abu Qbeitah*
Mohammad Milhem* 9- Suleiman Abu Sneineh
Ibrahim Maraqa*
Ali Abu Rish* 10- Ali Qawasmi
1- Salah Ta'mari 1- Salah Ta'mari
2- Issa Azza 2- Daoud Zeer
3- Daoud Zeer 3- (Bshara Daoud)
4- Bshara Daoud 4- (Mitri Abu Eita)
1- Fayez Zeidan 1- Fayez Zeidan
2- Muawya Al-Masri
2- Muawya Al-Masri 3- Maher Al-Masri
3- Ghassan Shak'a 4- Ghassan Shak'a
4- Maher Al-Masri 5- Dalal Salameh 5- Husam Khader
6- Imad Ya'ish* 6- Dalal Salameh
7- Husam Khadr 7- Kamel Afghani
8- Sarhan Dweikat*
8- (Sallum al-Kahin 9- Kamel Afghani*
(....) designated for minorities
Participants
Gaza Strip Coordinator: Nabil MuslehDr. Nader Izzat Sa'id
Head, Survey Research Unit
Ayoub Mustafa Ayoub
Research/Assistent/Deputy, SRU Head
Lauren Ross
International Republican Institute
Raja' Fahmi El-Taher
Administrative Assistent
Aysheh Mustafa
Research Assistent
Dr. Khalil Shikaki
Dr. Haward Christian
David Hansin Dr. Faisal Awartani
Jeffrey Todd
Samir Awad Adnan Odeh Jamil Hilal
Mohammed Salahat West Bank
Nablus Sahair Shaf'i
Mahdi Thouqan Tulkarm Shahira Belbeisi
Nathem Amouri Jenin Ghassan Rabay'a
Sahab Zalmout Tubas Jihad N'eirat
Qalqilya Khaled Nasif
Sameh Samha Salfit Ayman Sleem
Jericho Samia Taha
Ilham Nathif Ramallah Wafa Abu Zeid
Khaled El-Khalidi
Jerusalem Mohammed Safadi
Ahmad Safadi Bethlehem Mariam Ismail
Khaled El-Ahmar Hebron Haythem Rabay'ah
Eman Shalaldeh Gaza Strip
Gaza City Najwa El-Fuleh
Zaher Tantish Gaza North Mohammed Qahman
Nabhan Omar Khan Yunis Silham Daoud
Abdel Aziz Abu Shmaleh
Deir al-Balah Kamal Girbawi
Khadra Shihadeh Rafah Yousef El-Qiq
Ashraf Abu Nahleh
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