Armed Attacks, Peace Process, Elections, Unemployment, March 29-31, 1996
Blaming IsraelMost Palestinians tend to blame Israel for the difficult conditions imposed on them in the aftermath of the suicide attacks. Almost 31%, however, places the blame on Hamas, while only 11% blame the PNA. In Gaza, Hamas is blamed more than it is blamed in the West Bank. Table 12 shows that blame for Israel in Ramallah and Bethlehem is higher than blame for Israel in Gaza North and Gaza middle. Conversely, blame for Hamas in Gaza North and Gaza middle is higher than that in Ramallah.
Table # (12)
Blame for the closure by selected areas of residence
PNA to be blamed Hamas to be blamed Israel to be blamed Area of Residence Nablus 11.8% 28.6% 55.5% Jenin 9.9% 33.7% 51.5% Ramallah 8.0% 23.2% 61.6% Bethlehem 4.4% 26.5% 60.3% Jerusalem 16.2% 29.3% 53.5% Gaza North 10.5% 45.6% 35.3% Gaza Middle 11.9% 39.5% 35.7% Table 13 indicates that there is higher levels of blame for Hamas among the unemployed as one might expect. Students, non-participants in elections, and those opposed to negotiations and supportive of armed attacks are least likely to blame Hamas. It is interesting to notice that the undecided are closer to the oon this matter than to the "pro-peace" camp.
Table # (13)
Blaming Hamas by selected variables:
Occupation Student 20.0% Unemployed 36.6% Participation in elections Participant 33.0% Non-participant 22.1% Position on negotiations Support 35.5% Oppose 12.7% Position on armed attacks Support 12.1% Oppose 38.5% Political affiliation Pro peace camp 39.8% Opposition camp 14.0% Undecided 21.4%
Mutual end to violenceAlmost 90% of the Palestinians support a call for a mutual end to violence between the two sides. Only a mere 7% is opposed to such a step. As expected, support for mutual non-violence is highest among those who participated in the elections and those who support negotiations and oppose armed attacks. Nonetheless, as can be seen in Table 14, there is an overwhelming majority in support for mutual non-violence even among supporters of armed attacks.
Table # (14)
Support for mutual end to violence by selected variables
Participation in elections Participant 91.6% Non-participant 80.5% Position on negotiation Support 93.3% Oppose 73.5% Position on armed attacks Support 78.1% Oppose 93.9% Political affiliation Pro peace camp 93.8% Opposition camp 80.1% Undecided 85.0%
"Separation"
More than two thirds of the Palestinians view "separation" as another form of collective punishment. Only 13% see in it the beginning of an Israeli acceptance of a Palestinian state. This finding is similar to the one discovered in February 1995, when the idea of "separation" was first posed by Israelis in the aftermath of the Bit-Lid suicide attack. At that time some 64% regarded it as collective punishment and 16% regarded it as the beginning of a Palestinian state.
Political affiliationThere has been a clear drop in the popularity of all political factions and parties, especially in the opposition camp: support for Hamas dropped to 6%, PFLP to 2%, and Fateh to 48%. The proportion of undecided went up to 30% compared to 18% in December. 1995. (See figure 1). It is possible that supporters of the opposition may be reflecting disappointment over the action (i.e. suicide attacks) of opposition factions, while the supporters of the "peace camp" may be punishing Fateh for the latest actions (i.e. security measures) of the PNA.
Table # (15)
Political Affiliation
Dec. 94 Dec. 95 March 96 Hamas 16.6% 9.7% 5.8% Al-Sha'b 0.8% 1.8% 1.7% PFLP 6.7% 3.8% 2.1% Fateh 43.1% 55.3% 47.5% Feda 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% Islamic Jihad 2.6% 2.0% 1.0% DFLP 1.4% 1.5% 1.1% Islamic Independent 3.7% 3.6% 4.4% National Independent 4.9% 3.2% 6.0% None of the above 11.7% 13.8% 25.0% Others 7.7% 4.8% 5.3%
Total West Bank Gaza
* Unemployment rate 49.0% 44.0% 60.0%
1) Are you satisfied with the results of the Palestinian elections for the president of the authority and for the members of the legislative council which took place two months ago?
a) Yes, I am satisfied 53.4% 50.6% 58.1% b) No, I am not satisfied 18.8% 21.1% 14.9% c) I am partially satisfied 23.9% 24.8% 22.5% d) No opinion 03.8% 03.5% 04.4%
2) Did you participate in the Palestinian elections which took place on January 20th ,1996?
a) Yes 77.2% 70.3% 88.6% b) No (Go to 4) 22.8% 29.7% 11.4%
3) Why did you not participate in the elections?
a) I am opposed to the peace 12.9% 14.0% 07.8% process. b) I did not find good candidates 10.4% 11.8% 03.9% to vote for. c) I was busy with other things 27.6% 28.9% 21.6% d) It was difficult to get 03.6% 03.5% 03.9% transportation to the voting location. e) I have doubted the fairness 05.0% 04.4% 07.8% of the elections. f) Others, specify 40.5% 37.4% 54.9%
4) Regarding the current peace process between the Palestinian and the Israeli sides, I:
a) Support its continuation 78.3% 76.2% 81.7% b) Support stopping it 16.4% 18.2% 13.5% c) No opinion 05.3% 05.6% 04.8%
5) Has your support for the Palestinian Authority increased or decreased these days?
a) My support increased 23.5% 22.8% 24.6% b) My support decreased 23.3% 25.9% 19.1% c) Stayed as is, I am still supportive 43.9% 40.2% 50.0% d) Stayed as is, I am not supportive 09.2% 11.0% 06.3%
6) At the end of May, elections for the Israeli Knesset will take place. In these election the Labor Party led by Shimon Peres will compete against the Likud led by Netanyahu. In your opinion who is better in regard to achieving Palestinian goals?
a) A government led by Likud 04.9% 04.9% 05.0% b) A government led by Labor 40.0% 38.3% 42.9% c) No difference between the two 43.1% 46.6% 37.4% regarding achievement of Palestinian goals. d) No opinion 11.9% 10.2% 14.7%
7) Lately, armed attacks have taken place against Israelis in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Ashkelon. Do you support such attacks?
a) yes 21.1% 23.8% 16.8% b) No 70.1% 67.6% 74.4% c) No opinion 08.7% 08.6% 08.8%
8) Regarding these armed attacks against Israeli targets, do you approve or oppose the Palestinian Authority taking measures to prevent them?
a) I approve 58.5% 56.0% 62.6% b) I oppose 31.9% 34.8% 27.1% c) No opinion 09.6% 09.2% 10.3%
9) If the Palestinian Authority did not take measures to prevent the armed attacks, do you think that the continuation of such attacks may impede the peace process between the Palestinians and the Israelis?
a) Yes 74.9% 72.7% 78.6% b) No 19.0% 21.0% 15.8% c) No opinion 06.1% 06.3% 05.7%
10)The Palestinian Authority has taken security measures to prevent armed attacks. Are you concerned that these measures may lead to internal Palestinian conflict?
a) Yes, very worried 45.5% 47.0% 43.1% b) Somewhat worried 28.4% 28.0% 29.0% c) No, not worried 22.0% 20.9% 23.7% d) No opinion 04.1% 04.1% 04.2%
11) Regarding the conditions imposed on the Palestinians after the latest armed attacks (e.g. the closure), whom do you blame most for what is happening?
a) The Palestinian Authority 11.3% 11.3% 11.2% b) Hamas and Islamic Jihad 30.5% 26.8% 36.5% c) Israel 50.0% 55.9% 40.3% d) No opinion 08.3% 06.0% 12.0%
12) Regarding the call for ending violence from the two sides, the Palestinian and the Israeli, I:
a) Support it 89.2% 89.5% 88.6% b) Oppose it 07.2% 08.0% 05.9% c) No opinion 03.7% 02.5% 05.5%
13) I believe that the notion of separation as proposed by the Israeli government is mainly:
a) The beginning of an Israeli 12.9% 14.6% 10.1% acceptance of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. b) Collective punishment against 70.8% 73.3% 66.8% Palestinians. c) Not sure 16.3% 12.1% 23.1%
14) Which of the following political movements do you support:
a) PPP 01.7% 02.0% 01.3% b) PFLP 02.1% 01.9% 02.3% c) Fateh 47.5% 44.3% 52.6% d) Hamas 05.8% 06.0% 05.5% e) DFLP 01.1% 01.8% ----- f) Islamic Jihad 01.0% 00.6% 01.7% g) Feda 00.2% 00.1% 00.2% h) Islamic Independent 04.4% 05.5% 02.5% i) National Independent 06.0% 06.5% 05.1% j) None of the above 25.0% 24.4% 25.9% k) Others (specify __________) 05.3% 06.8% 02.9%
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