Domestic PoliticsSuch high support for the continuation of the peace process, but divided views on its outcome based on regional factors and future outlook, is partly explained by the perception of improvement and trust (or lack of it) in the new Palestinian government and institutions. These findings suggest that there is a strong relationship between a positive or negative assessment of the domestic national reconstruction and transition to democracy efforts and support or opposition to the peace process. This observation can be measured in several attitudinal variables and tested by the strength of the relationship between these variables.
Governance
Most Palestinians we polled (56%) trust the ability of the newly formed Palestinian government to improve the general Palestinian performance, 21.1% gave a negative response and 22.8% are not sure at this time. Trust varies by region: Palestinians in the Gaza Strip are more likely to trust the government (60.7%) than in the West Bank (53.2%), but there is no regional difference between those who are not sure. Women also expressed a higher level of trust than men, who, in turn, are more likely to not to trust the new government (see Table 4). There is a strong negative relationship between trust and education level: the higher the education level the lower the level of trust in the government's ability to improve the Palestinian performance (see Table 4). Age of the respondent has no discernible affect on this attitude.
When asked to assess the performance of the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC), 36.9% rated it as "Fair", 28.7% as "Good" and lastly 14.8% as "Bad". Similar to the trust in the new government, a similar percentage (20.2%) are not sure about the performance of the newly elected PLC. As with most variables already discussed, we find a similar pattern in terms of region, gender, education and age of respondent (please refer to Table 4). In the Election Day Survey (20 January 1996), respondents expressed a higher level of optimism toward candidates they elected. 43% expected that the candidate they voted for will fulfill their election campaign promises; 47% thought that they will to some extent; while only 10% said that the candidates will not. Despite the low rating of the performance of PLC, relative to respondents' expectations, a great majority (78.4%) of all Palestinians polled intends to participate in the up-coming elections for local councils in their area. This finding is higher than the 71% who said that they will participate in the general elections for the PLC, obtained in Poll #20 (13-15 October 1995). As with the General Elections, SRU plans to track participation in local elections over time in future polls.
Table 4
Trust in New Government and Performance of Palestinian Legislative Council by Selected Variables, weighted percentages and counts (n)
New Government Performance of PLC Trust Not Trust Good Fair Bad Not Sure Total 56.0 (546) 21.1 (206) 28.0 (272) 36.9 (359) 14.8 (144) 20.2 (196) Region
West Bank
Gaza Strip
53.2 (321)
60.7 (226)
24.0 (145)
16.4 (61)
28.7 (173)
26.9 (99)
37.7 (227)
35.7 (132)
16.8 (101)
11.6 (43)
16.8 (101)
25.8 (95)Gender
Male
Female
52.6 (252)
59.3 (290)
25.9 (124)
16.7 (82)
24.9 (119)
31.2 (152)
38.7 (185)
35.0 (171)
18.2 (87)
11.5 (56)
18.2 (87)
22.4 (109)Education
Illiterate-Elementary
Secondary-H.S. Diploma
College-Post Graduate
64.5 (163)
55.0 (328)
42.6 (50)
13.4 (34)
22.0 (131)
33.7 (40)
38.4 (98)
25.9 (153)
17.2 (21)
27.4 (70)
39.7 (253)
41.3 (49)10.9 (28)
15.3 (90)
21.9 (26)
23.3 (59)
19.1 (113)
19.5 (23)Age
18-27
28-37
38-47
48+ years old
54.0 (191)
55.7 (141)
59.9 (100)
58.0 (112)
22.3 (79)
23.4 (59)
19.2 (32)
17.6 (34)
24.7 (87)
28.6 (72)
31.7 (53)
31.0 (60)
43.1 (151)
35.0 (88)
35.7 (60)
28.8 (56)
13.2 (46)
17.2 (44)
15.4 (26)
14.0 (27)
19.0 (67)
19.2 (48)
17.1 (29)
26.2 (51)
Transition to DemocracyPalestinians of the West Bank and Gaza Strip are divided on the status of freedom of expression, an important indicator in the transition to democracy, under the Palestinian National Authority. About 48% of the respondents believe that freedom of expression has become better since the arrival of the PNA; while another 48% think it has become worse or did not change. Palestinians in the Gaza Strip (52.1%) are more likely than in the West Bank (44.8%) to think that the freedom of expression has improved; with no regional difference for those who think it has become worse; but more West Bankers (20.6%) than Gazans (12.4%), however, say that it has not changed since the arrival of the PNA. Similarly, 49% feel that people today cannot criticize the PNA without fear, and only 42% feel that they can. There is no significant difference between the West Bank and Gaza Strip. For both of these variables, men are more likely than women to think the freedom of expression has become worse or has not changed under the PNA and are more fearful to criticize the PNA. There are also strong negative relationships between freedom of expression and criticism with age and education of the respondent: the older and less educated a respondent, the more likely s/he thinks that freedom of expression has improved and can criticize the PNA without fear (see Table 5).
Table 5
Freedom of Expression and Ability to Criticize the PNA by Selected Variables, weighted percentages and counts
Freedom of Expression Criticism of PNA better no change worse without fear with fear Total 47.6 (465) 17.5 (171) 30.5 (298) 43.9 (429) 49.1 (479) Region
West Bank
Gaza Strip
44.8 (271)
52.1 (194)
20.6 (125)
12.4 (46)
30.3 (183)
30.9 (115)
44.3 (268)
43.3 (161)
48.3 (292)
50.3 (187)Gender
Men
Women
41.0 (197)
53.5 (263)
15.8 (76)
19.1 (94)
39.4 (189)
22.2 (109)
39.0 (187)
48.9 (241)
55.3 (265)
42.7 (210)Education
IPreparatory
Secondary-H.S. Diploma
CollePost Graduate
56.5 (144)
47.6 (284)
27.8 (33)
16.6 (43)
18.0 (107)
16.1 (19)
22.4 (57)
30.4 (181)
49.6 (59)
52.0 (133)
43.6 (260)
29.3 (35)
38.5 (98)
50.6 (302)
63.8 (76)Age
18-27
28-37
38-47
48+ years old
42.3 (150)
46.4 (118)
50.7 (86)
55.9 (109)
18.6 (66)
17.6 (45)
18.6 (31)
14.5 (28)
34.5 (122)
32.5 (83)
25.7 (43)
24.6 (48)
39.4 (139)
44.7 (114)
46.0 (77)
49.8 (97)
55.2 (195)
49.7 (126)
44.3 (74)
40.4 (79)On a question related to the issues of freedom of expression and the ability to criticize the Palestinian National Authority without fear, CPRS asked respondents to rate the treatment of Palestinian citizens by the police and security services. 44.3% of the respondents feel that the treatment is "Good", 36.8% "Fair" and 14.4% "Bad". Although Palestinians on the West Bank tend to be more critical of the PNA and its institutions overall, 46.7% rate the police and security services as "Good", compared to 45.5% in the Gaza Strip, who, in turn, mostly (42%) assessed the treatment of citizens as "Fair". Men have a more critical attitude toward the police and security services than women. There is also a strong negative relationship between education level and assessment of treatment: the more educated the more likely to rate it as "Bad". Older respondents tend to think that the treatment is "Good", but the bulk of the younger respondents think it is "Fair". Refugees also gave a more favorable assessment than non-refugees (see Table 6).
In a telling answer question about the truthfulness of responses to this poll, which is also intended to measure people's perceptions freedom of expression under the Palestinian Authority, 21% said that most people are afraid to give truthful answers and 45% said some people are afraid to give truthful answers to the questions. On the other hand, less than one percent of the respondents admitted that they themselves have not give truthful answers to all of the questions; and only 5% said they have give truthful answers to some of the questions; 81% claimed they have given truthful answers to all of the questions and 13% to most of the questions.
As for the Palestinian media in the process of democratization, more respondents (41%) think that the Palestinian media under the PNA have shown a commitment to the freedom of expression and democracy; compared to 33% who think they have failed to uphold such values. Again, regional differences are significant; as 37.6% of Palestinians in the West Bank and 46.8% in the Gaza Strip believe that the Palestinian media uphold the freedom of expression and democracy. Conversely, 40.1% in the West Bank and 31.2% in the Gaza Strip think that the Palestinian media have failed. There is no regional difference among people who have no opinion on this matter. More women (42.5%) than men (39.2%), in our sample, think that the Palestinian media uphold democratic values, as do the less educated (see Table 6). Also, there is a difference between refugees and non-refugees: 38.9% of refugees compared to 42.5% of non-refugees think that the Palestinian media are democratic (please refer to Table 6).
Table 6
Palestinian Police & Security and the Media Under the Palestinian Authority by Selected Variables, weighted percentages and counts
Palestinian Police & Security Media good fair bad democratic undemocratic Total 44.3 (433) 36.8 (359) 14.4 (140) 41.1 (402) 36.7 (359) Region
West Bank
Gaza Strip
46.7 (282)
40.5 (151)
33.6 (203)
42.0 (156)
14.0 (85)
15.0 (56)
37.6 (228)
46.8 (174)
40.1 (243)
31.2 (116)Gender
Men
Women
38.4 (184)
49.9 (246)
40.3 (193)
33.4 (164)`
18.2 (87)
10.8 (53)
39.2 (188)
42.5 (209)
44.8 (215)
29.3 (144)Education
Illiterate-Preparatory Secondary-H.S. Diploma
College-Post Graduate
57.5 (147)
41.0 (244)
30.8 (37)
28.8 (73)
40.1 (239)
38.3 (46)
9.3 (24)
15.1 (90)
22.7 (27)
42.3 (108)
42.9 (255)
29.3 (35)
27.1 (69)
36.9 (220)
57.7 (69)Age
18-27
28-37
38-47
48+ years old
39.7 (140)
43.0 (109)
48.2 (81)
51.8 (101)
41.0 (145)
34.4 (87)
38.8 (65)
29.6 (58)
15.2 (54)
17.9 (46)
10.1 (17)
12.3 (24)
45.4 (161)
39.2 (99)
34.7 (59)
40.9 (80)
37.2 (131)
39.5 (100)
38.5 (65)
30.7 (60)Refugee Status
Refugee
Non-Refugee
40.3 (161)
47.0 (268)
39.6 (158)
34.9 (200)
16.8 (67)
12.8 (73)
38.9 (156)
42.5 (243)
39.8 (215)
34.7 (144)Some 51% of the respondents are able to watch the Palestinian TV station in their area: in the Gaza Strip it is 84% while in the West Bank it is only 30%. The most popular TV station among Palestinians in the West Bank is the Jordanian station (watched by more than 54% of the respondents), followed by local stations in the different cities of the West Bank (13%) and the Palestinian and Israeli stations (each watched by about 9%). In the Gaza Strip, where the signal of the Palestinian TV station is easily received by 84.2% of the respondents, 56.6% watch this more than any other; while only 6% watch the Jordanian TV station (whose signal is not clearly received). The Egyptian TV station is the second most popular station in the Gaza Strip (16%); and the Israeli is the third, with 12% watching (see Table 7). No local TV stations are available in the Gaza Strip.
Table 7
Ability to Watch Palestinian TV station, TV Station Most Watched by Palestinians and Most Trusted News Bulletins (Palestinian, Jordanian and Israeli) by Region, weighted percentages and counts
Most Watched TV Most Trusted News Bulletin Palestinian Jordanian Israeli Palestinian Jordanian Israeli Total 26.7 (356) 36.1 (345) 10.3 (98) 21.0 (200) 18.4 (174) 32.3 (306) Region
West Bank
Gaza Strip
8.5 (83)
56.6 (555)
54.2 (531)
6.4 (63)
9.4 (92)
11.7 (115)
10.1 (99)
39.1 (383)
23.5 (230)
10.0 (98)
33.5 (328)
30.3 (297)As shown in Table 7, when it comes to trusting the news bulletins of different TV stations, the picture is different. The most trusted news bulletin in the Gaza Strip is the Palestinian TV station (39.1%), followed by Israeli (30.3%) and lastly Jordanian TV (10%). In the West Bank 34% trust Israeli new bulletins, 24% Jordanian, 11% foreign stations and 10% Palestinian. Among those who actually receive the Palestinian TV signal in the West Bank, only 21% say they trust the new bulletins the most.
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