Political Affiliation

CPRS has tracked political affiliation over time in two ways. First, by asking respondents directly to state their political affiliation (i.e., party or faction). In this poll, we adopted a second approach of asking respondents to identify themselves with a party or faction that supports or opposes the peace process which we intend to track over time (see Table 3 for total figures and breakdown by demographic distribution). As for political affiliation, directly stated by the respondent, there is an overall stability in the distribution of responses since December 1994, with a few notable exceptions. One, affiliation with Hamas has declined since December from nearly 17% to 7.8%, averaging 10-points; as has Fateh, the largest political party among Palestinians. Affiliation with Fetah reached a high of 55.3% in December 1995, but in this poll, affiliation has fallen a full 12-points below its high and 4-points below its average (47.3%) since December 1995. Accompanying declines in Fateh and Hamas, there has been a notable steady increase in respondents with "None of the Above" political affiliation. With an average of 19.7%, this group has grown from a low of 11.7% in December 1995 (See Poll #21) to its highest point (28.1%) in this June poll (see Table 8).

Table 8
Political Affiliation, weighted percentages and counts (n)

	Dec. 1994	Dec. 1995	March 1996	June 1996	Average
Hamas	16.6 (177)	9.7 (110)	5.8 (73)	7.8 (76)	10.0
Al-Sha'b	0.8 (9)	1.8 (21)	1.7 (22)	2.4 (23)	1.7
PFLP	6.7 (72)	3.8 (43)	2.1 (26)	4.0 (39)	4.2
Fateh	43.1 (460)	55.3 (628)	47.5 (597)	43.3 (424)	47.3
Feda	0.8 (9)	0.4 (5)	0.2 (2)	0.7 (7)	0.6
Islamic Jihad	2.6 (28)	2.0 (23)	1.0 (13)	1.9 (19)	1.9
DFLP	1.4 ()	1.5 (17)	1.1 (14)	0.8 (7)	1.2
Islamic Independent	3.7 (39)	3.6 (41)	4.4 (55)	3.7 (36)	3.9
National Independent	4.9 (52)	3.2 (36)	6.0 (75)	4.5 (44)	4.7
None of the Above	11.7 (125)	13.8 (157)	25.0 (314)	28.1 (275)	19.7
Others	7.7 (82)	4.8 (55)	5.3 (67)	2.9 (28)	5.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	---

For the three largest political groups in the West Bank and Gaza Strip (Fateh, Hamas and None of the Above), there are some notable demographic variations. Within Hamas and the None of the Above categories, there is no regional differences, but more women than men identify their political affiliation with both groups. Palestinians in the West Bank (49.7%) are more likely than Gazans (39.3%) to support Fateh, as are men, the less educated and younger respondents in our sample (see Table 9).

Table 9
Political Affiliation (Hamas, Fateh and None of the Above) by Selected Variables, weighted percentages and counts

	Hamas	Fateh	None of the Above
Total	7.8 (76)	43.3 (422)	28.1 (274)
Region West Bank Gaza Strip	8.8 (53) 6.2 (23)	39.3 (237) 49.7 (185)	29.4 (177) 26.0 (97)
Gender Male Female	5.8 (28) 9.7 (48)	46.8 (224) 40.2 (197)	22.8 (109) 33.1 (163)
Education Illiterate-Preparatory Secondary-H.S. Diploma College-Post. Graduate	8.3 (21) 7.3 (43) 10.0 (12)	42.9 (110) 45.4 (270) 34.6 (41)	29.1 (74) 28.3 (169) 25.1 (30)
Age 18-27 28-37 38-47 48+ years old	8.4 (30) 8.8 (22) 8.2 (14) 5.0 (10)	44.7 (158) 45.3 (115) 42.6 (72) 40.2 (78)	26.7 (94) 26.7 (68) 27.7 (47) 33.1 (64)

There is also a significant relationship between gender, political affiliation and attitudes toward the national reconstruction effort. With Hamas, Fateh and the None of the Above categories women tend think that the freedom of expression is better under the Palestinian National Authority, the Palestinian media uphold the values of freedom of expression and democracy and can criticize the PNA without fear (compare statistics across Table 10).

Table 10

Political Affiliation of Men and Women by Attitudes toward Freedom of Expression, the Palestinian Media and Ability to Criticize the PNA, weighted percentages and counts

	Political Affiliation
	Hamas		Fateh		None of the Above
	men	women	men	women	men	women
Freedom of Expression Better No Change Worse	32.1 (9) 7.1 (2) 57.1 (16)	37.9 (18) 18.4 (9) 41.4 (20)	54.9 (123) 17.4 (39) 24.6 (55)	67.1 (133) 16.7 (33) 13.6 (27)	28.4 (31) 15.6 (17) 45.9 (54)	44.4 (72) 21.0 (34) 26.8 (43)
Palestinian Media Democratic Undemocratic	42.9 (12) 42.9 (12)	39.1 (19) 39.1 (19)	51.8 (116) 34.4 (77)	52.2 (103) 22.9 (45)	24.8 (27) 53.2 (58)	32.8 (53) 30.7 (50)
Criticism of PNA With Fear Without Fear	46.4 (13) 53.6 (14)	47.1 (23) 49.4 (24)	47.3 (106) 46.0 (103)	58.8 (116) 37.0 (73)	26.9 (29) 66.7 (72)	40.3 (65) 45.4 (74)

Attitudes toward the future of the peace process, as measured by several variables, are strongly associated with identification with the "peace" or "oppose" camps, in some surprising and expected ways. Unsurprisingly, people with the "peace camp" overwhelmingly support the continuation of the peace process (91.6%); but are more hesitant about the amendment of the National Charter (57.5%), as stipulated by agreements with Israel. Moreover, those who are within the "peace camp" tend to be optimistic about the Israeli elections or think they won't change the future of the peace process (40.2% and 29.3%, respectively). Yet, they also think that the final status negotiations will lead to an acceptable solution (52%) and Arab countries are committed to uphold Palestinian rights (50%).

On the other hand, those respondents who identify with the "oppose camp" can be characterized as pessimistic on all these issues; importantly, and surprisingly, 39.5% support the continuation of the peace process, despite their identification with the "oppose camp:, compared to 47.7% who oppose the continuation of the peace process. The "swing camp", as on domestic issues, are mainly pessimistic, with one exception; the bulk (44.7%) of swing respondents think the outcome of the recent Israeli elections will not change the future of the peace process (see Table 11).

Table 11

Support/Oppose Peace (Process) Camps by Attitudes toward the Future of the Peace Process, weighted percentages and counts

	Support/Oppose Peace (Process) Camps
	Support Camp	Swing	Oppose Camp
Israeli Elections Optimistic No Change Pessimistic	40.2 (270) 29.3 (201) 25.7 (173)	25.2 (48) 44.7 (85) 23.7 (45)	15.9 (18) 34.5 (39) 46.0 (52)
Final Status Negotiations Acceptable Unacceptable	52.0 (350) 39.8 (286)	32.8 (62) 22.9 (106)	17.4 (19) 79.7 (89)
Arab Summit Can Rely Cannot Rely	50.0 (334) 43.9 (293)	33.8 (63) 56.8 (106)	19.0 (21) 79.0 (89)
Continuation of Peace Process Support Oppose	91.6 (615) 5.6 (40)	68.0 (129) 15.1 (29)	39.3 (45) 47.7 (54)
Amendment of National Charter Support Oppose	57.5 (387) 23.7 (159)	33.7 (63) 33.0 (62)	11.8 (13) 79.1 (89)

Identification with either the "peace camp" or "opposition camp", as indicated by our findings, is strongly associated with positive or negative attitudes toward domestic political issues than with regional factors and future outlook. As shown in Table 12, the bulk of the respondents both support the "peace camp" and believe that Palestinians can trust their government (66.1%) and its elected representatives (84.4% think the performance of the PLC is "Good"), exercise the freedom of expression (57.1%), criticize the PNA (50.4%) and that the treatment of Palestinian police and security is "Good" (84.4%).

Note, however, that the strength of the statistical (not numerical) relationships moves in the opposite direction with identification of the "swing" and "oppose" camps. In other words, respondents who identify with the "swing" or "oppose" camps are much more likely to be critical of the government and its institutions. For example, 50.9% of those in the "oppose camp" believe that they cannot trust the government; only 25.7% feel that they are able to criticize the PNA without fear; moreover, 36.1% assess the treatment of Palestinian citizens by their police and security as "Bad" compared to only 19.1% who believe it is "Good". As can be expected, there is less variation between negative and positive attitudes among those respondents who identify with the "swing" camp, but, nevertheless, they are overall more negative in their assessments than the "peace camp" (see Table 12).

Table 12
Support/Oppose Peace (Process) Camps by Attitudes toward Domestic Politics, weighted percentages and counts

	Support/Oppose Peace (Process) Camps
	Support Camp	Swing	Oppose Camp
Ability to Criticize PNA Able Not Able	50.4 (339) 42.8 (288)	32.1 (61) 57.3 (108)	25.7 (29) 72.4 (82)
Freedom of Expression Better No Change Worse	57.1 (384) 15.6 (105) 22.8 (153)	32.8 (62) 25.5 (48) 36.0 (68)	15.9 (18) 67.5 (76) 14.8 (17)
Performance of PLC Good Fair Bad Not Sure	84.4 (229) 68.8 (247) 44.7 (64) 66.7 (131)	11.8 (32) 19.4 (70) 29.4 (42) 22.7 (44)	3.9 (11) 11.7 (42) 25.9 (37) 10.7 (21)
Treatment by Police & Security Good Fair Bad	52.0 (350) 33.1 (223) 11.7 (78)	32.4 (61) 49.3 (93) 11.2 (13)	19.1 (22) 37.6 (42) 36.1 (41)
Trust in Government Trust Not Sure Not Trust	66.1 (444) 20.2 (136) 13.7 (92)	41.5 (78) 29.0 (55) 29.4 (55)	21.3 (24) 27.8 (31) 50.9 (57)

To summarize, there is a strong relationship between satisfaction or disillusionment with the national reconstruction process and identification with the support and opposition camps of the peace process. In other words, opponents of the peace process are largely critical of domestic issues and pessimistic about its future. Although some supporters of the peace process are also critical of the new Palestinian government and its institutions as well as the final status negotiations Israel, on the whole, they fully endorsethe continuation of the peace process and are largely satisfied with the national reconstruction effort on the domestic level. As for the swing camp, who comprise a sizable minority of the population, their support for the continuation of the peace process appears to be mainly associated with a combination of present trust in the government and an optimism toward finding an acceptable solution in the final status negotiations with Israel.

			W.Bank & Gaza		W.Bank		Gaza

*Unemployment			37%		30%		47%

a)optimistic                      34.4%           29.6%           42.2%
b)pessimistic                     27.6%           31.4%           21.4%
c)no change has                   33.3%           34.8%           31.0%
taken place  
d)no opinion                      04.7%           04.3%           05.3% 

a)It has become better            47.6%           44.8%           52.1%
than before its arrival
b)It has become worse             30.5%           30.3%           30.9%
than before its arrival
c)It did not change               17.5%           20.6%           12.4%
d)No opinion                      04.4%           04.4%           04.5%

a)Support the decision            47.6%           44.7%           52.2%
b)Oppose the decision             31.9%           37.2%           23.2%
c)No opinion                      20.5%           18.0%           24.6%

a)Upholds freedom of              41.1%           37.6%           46.8%
expression and democracy 
c)Shows failure to uphold         36.7%           40.1%           31.2%
freedom of expression 
and democracy                   
c)No opinion                      22.2%           22.3%           22.0%

a)Yes                             43.1%           40.1%           48.0%
b)No                              50.5%           54.5%           44.0%
c)No opinion                      06.4%           05.3%           08.0%

a)Yes                             56.0%           53.2%           60.7%
b)No                              21.1%           24.0%           16.4%
c)Not sure                        22.8%           22.8%           22.9%

a)There is a possibility          44.3%           39.8%           51.6%
to reach a solution
acceptable to the two
parties.
b)There is no possibility         47.5%           53.2%           38.2%
to reach a solution
acceptable to the two
sides.
c)No opinion                      08.2%            07.0%          10.2%

a)Good                            44.3%           46.7%           40.5%
b)Fair                            36.8%           33.6%           42.0%
c)Bad                             14.4%           14.0%           15.0%
d)No opinion                      4.5%            5.7%            2.5%

a)The supporters of the           69.0%           66.9%           72.5%
peace process.
b)The opposition to the           11.6%           13.9%           7.8%
peace process.
c)I do not support or             19.4%           19.2%           19.8%
oppose the peace
process.

a)Good                            28.0%           28.7%           26.9%
b)Fair                            36.9%           37.7%           35.7%
c)Bad                             14.8%           16.8%           11.6%
d)No opinion                      20.2%           16.8%           25.8%

a)Yes                             78.4%           78.6%           77.9%
b)No                              16.3%           16.8%           15.4%
c)Not Sure                        05.3%           04.5%           06.6%

a)Yes                             43.9%           44.3%           43.3%
b)No                              49.1%           48.3%           50.3%
c)No opinion                      07.0%           07.4%           06.3%

a)Support its continu-            81.1%           77.8%           86.3%
ation.
b)Support ending it               12.5%           16.8%           05.6%
c)No opinion                      06.4%           05.4%           08.0%

a)PPP                             2.4%            2.6%            2.1%
b)PFLP                            4.0%            3.5%            4.9%
c)Fateh                           43.3%           39.3%           49.7%
d)Hamas                           7.8%            8.8%            6.2%
e)DFLP                            0.8%            0.5%            1.2%
f)Islamic Jihad                   1.9%            1.6%            2.4%
g)Fida                            0.7%            0.8%            0.6%
h)Independent Islamists           3.7%            4.6%            2.2%
i)Independent Nationalists        4.5%            5.5%            2.8%
j)None of the above               28.1%           29.4%           26.0%
k)Others                          2.9%            3.5%            1.9%

a)Yes                             50.7%           30.0%           84.2%
b)No                              36.9%           53.8%           9.5%
c)Sometimes                       12.5%           16.2%           6.3%

a)The Israeli Television          10.3%           9.4%            11.7%
b)The Jordanian Television        36.1%           54.2%           6.4%
c)The Palestinian Television      26.7%           8.5%            56.6%
d)The Egyptian Television         9.0%            4.6%            16.3%
e)Local TV stations               8.2%            13.3%           ---
f)Foreign stations                2.4%            3.1%            1.3%
g)Others                          7.2%            6.9%            7.6%

a)The Israeli Television          32.3%           33.5%           30.3%
b)The Jordanian Television        18.4%           23.5%           10.0%
c)The Palestinian Television      21.0%           10.1%           39.1%
d)The Egyptian Television         3.1%            2.1%            4.9%
e)Local TV stations               1.4%            2.1%            0.3%
f)Foreign stations                8.1%            10.9%           3.6%
g)Others                          15.7%           18.0%           11.8%

a)Most people are afraid to       21.2%           20.6%           22.2%
give truthful answers 
reflecting their attitudes.
b)Some people are afraid to       44.5%           46.4%           41.3%
give truthful answers 
reflecting their attitudes.
c)Most people give truthful       26.5%           25.5%           28.2%
answers reflecting their 
attitudes.
d)No opinion                      7.8%            7.4%            8.3%

a)Have given truthful answers     81.3%           82.1%           80.1%
to all the questions.
b)Have given truthful answers     12.7%           12.5%           13.0%
to most of the questions.
c)Have given truthful answers     4.7%            4.3%            5.4%
to some of the questions.
d)Have not given any truthful     0.2%            0.3%            0.1%
answers .
e)No opinion                      1.1%            0.9%            1.4%

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