Overview

Attitudes toward the peace process, generally indicate a high level of support for its continuation. This finding is surprising given that this attitude was measured during and after a period of intense violent clashes between Palestinian civilians and security forces and Israeli military forces and settlers. Moreover, the poll also found that most Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip think that the peace process has negatively affected the economy; and barely a majority think that it will lead to a state in the near future.

These poll results, point to a possible explanation for this contradiction: Support for the continuation of the peace process with Israel remains high because support for a political leadership which in turn supports the process is high. In other words, positive evaluation for the Palestinian leadership, particularly for the Executive branch, is one of the most highly explanatory intervening variables in the relationship between people's perception of the economy and their expectations for the future and support or opposition for the peace process.

Future of the Peace Process

Although this poll was conducted during violent clashes in the West Bank and Gaza Strip at the end of September, 70% of all respondents support the continuation of the peace process with Israel. This support has decreased 11-percentage points, however, from its highest level (81%) in June 1996 (see Poll #23). Opposition to the continuation of the peace process rose from 12% to its highest level of 24.8%, during this same period. Also, despite such high support, general optimism does not exceed 53%; while 41.6% of all respondents are pessimistic about the future. Barely a majority (50.9%) of the respondents believe that the peace process will lead to the establishment of a Palestinian State in the West Bank and Gaza Strip in the near future, and 33.5% do not expect such an outcome. Table 2 summarizes the demographic distribution of responses toward of continuation of the peace process, expectations of a State and outlook for the future.

Table 2
Support for the Continuation of the Peace Process, Expectation for State and Future Outlook by Selected Demographic Variables, percentages & counts*

	Continuation		Expect a State		Future
	Support	Oppose	Yes	No	Optimistic	Pessimistic
Total	69.8 (856)	24.8 (304)	50.9 (624)	33.5 (410)	53.0 (652)	41.6 (512)
Region West Bank Gaza Strip	67.8 (524) 73.3 (332)	26.4 (204) 22.1 (100)	49.4 (382) 53.5 (242)	37.0 (286) 27.4 (124)	51.4 (399) 55.7 (253)	44.1 (342) 37.4 (170)
Gender Male Female	67.1 (412) 72.5 (444)	27.7 (170) 21.9 (134)	48.4 (296) 53.4 (328)	38.6 (236) 28.3 (174)	51.9 (319) 54.1 (333)	44.4 (273) 38.9 (239)
Education Illiterate- Elementary Preparatory- Secondary 2 Years College B.A.- Post Graduate	80.3 (252) 68.8 (454) 67.7 (63) 54.7 (87)	15.0 (47) 26.4 (174) 21.5 (20) 39.6 (63)	61.3 (193) 52.1 (343) 41.9 (39) 30.8 (49)	20.6 (65) 33.6 (221) 46.2 (43) 50.9 (81)	52.5 (166) 55.1 (365) 46.8 (44) 48.7 (77)	39.2 (124) 39.9 (264) 48.9 (46) 49.4 (78)

* The Don't Know category is excluded from Table 2, but percentages are based on the total number of responses.

The results presented in Table 2 indicate that although general support for the continuation of the peace process is high, there are significant differences between Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza Strip, men and women and finally educational levels. As with many attitudinal variables, a consistent pattern of responses can be detected. That is, West Bankers, men and higher educated Palestinians tend to be more critical and pessimistic than their counterparts.

For example, educational level of the respondents is strongly correlated with support or opposition to the peace process, expectations for a State in the near future and general optimism or pessimism. In nearly inverse proportion, respondents with less education have more positive views on these key issues than respondents with higher education levels. There is also a significant difference between men and women, but these differences disappear when educational level is controlled. In other words, women and men with similar educational levels, with a few exceptions, tend to also share similar attitudes toward most issues.

Interestingly, for this poll which was conducted during a time of intense clashes in the Gaza Strip and in the aftermath of closures throughout Palestine, Gazans are more likely than West Bankers to support continuing the peace process, have more optimism and expect the current negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians to lead to a State. This finding is surprising but not unusual. As in past polls, Gazans are usually more supportive and optimistic. Yet, unemployment rates in the Gaza Strip are consistently much higher than in the West Bank. Moreover, as displayed in Table 3, this poll finds that Gazans assess their economic conditions since the peace process as more negative than West Bankers.

Table 3
Economic Conditions by Selected Demographic Variables, percentages & counts*

	Effect of Peace Process on Palestinian Economy
	Very Positive	Positive	Between	Negative	Very Negative
Total	2.9 (29)	8.7 (107)	19.4 (239)	38.9 (479)	27.5 (338)
Region West Bank Gaza Strip	1.7 (13) 3.5 (16)	8.3 (64) 9.5 (43)	17.8 (138) 22.2 (101)	40.9 (317) 35.6 (162)	28.1 (218) 26.4 (120)
Gender Men Women	2.3 (14) 2.4 (15)	8.9 (55) 8.5 (52)	15.8 (97) 23.1 (142)	39.5 (243) 38.4 (236)	31.9 (196) 23.1 (142)
Education Illiterate-Elementary Preparatory-Secondary 2 Years College B.A.-Post Graduate	2.5 (8) 2.4 (16) 3.2 (3) 1.3 (2)	9.5 (30) 8.5 (56) 10.6 (10) 6.9 (11)	18.4 (58) 20.6 (136) 24.5 (23) 13.8 (22)	38.0 (120) 38.3 (253) 33.0 (31) 47.2 (75)	27.5 (87) 27.4 (181) 25.5 (24) 28.9 (46)

* The Don't Know category is excluded from Table 3, but percentages are based on the total number of responses.

Overall, the plurality of respondents (66.4%) think that the peace process has had a 'negative' or 'very negative' affect on the Palestinian economy. When these categories are combined, the difference between the West Bank and Gaza Strip is substantial, as 69% of West Bankers and 62% of Gazans assess their economic conditions as negative or very negative. Men (32%) are also more likely than women (23%) to think that the economy has been 'very negatively' affected. Educational levels of the respondents, which are usually highly correlated with income levels, seem to have no discernible affect on their assessment of the economy. This could indicate that the problems of the economy (both in perceived and actual terms) are widespread, affecting all groups relatively similarly, rather than any group in particular.

These findings contradict conventional wisdom and one of the main premises of the peace process. That is, simply put, economic development will increase support for the peace process. What partly explains this contradiction, as indicated by the results of this and previous opinion polls, is that respondents' attitudes toward continuing the peace process are related to their assessment of the performance of their leadership and governmental institutions. It is the case that Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip can be broken (analytically) into roughly two groups: those that support the continuation of the peace process and favor their government and those who are critical of both.

[ PSR Home ] [ Index of Polls ] [ This Poll's Previous Section ] [ This Poll's Next Section ]