Survey
Research Unit
Survey
Research Unit
Political AffiliationSRU has tracked political affiliation over time by asking respondents to directly state their affiliation (i.e., party or faction). For this poll, there are no notable difference between the distribution of response since June 1996 (See Poll #23). Moreover, there is an overall stability in the structure of political affiliation since December 1994, with three notable exceptions. One, affiliation with Hamas has declined from 16.6% in December 1994 to 8.1% in this poll, averaging 9.5-percentage points. Two, affiliation with Fateh, the largest political party among Palestinian, has also declined from a high of 55.3% in December 1995, down 12-percentage points, to 43.6% in this poll. Three, there has been a steady increase in respondents with 'None of the Above' political affiliation. This group has grown from a low of 11.7% (in December 1995) to its highest point of 28.1% in June 1996, but has decreased slightly to 25.9% in this poll. Once again, the distribution of responses of all other parties are stable (see Table 14).
Table 14
Political Affiliation, percentages & counts
December 1994 December 1995 March
1996June
1996October
1996Average (%) Hamas 16.6 (177) 9.7 (110) 5.8 (73) 7.8 (76) 8.1 (100) 9.6 PPP 0.8 (9) 1.8 (21) 1.7 (22) 2.4 (23) 1.7 (21) 1.7 PFLP 6.7 (72) 3.8 (43) 2.1 (26) 4.0 (39) 4.0 (49) 4.1 Fateh 43.1 (460) 55.3 (628) 47.5 (597) 43.3 (424) 43.6 (535) 46.6 Fida 0.8 (9) 0.4 (5) 0.2 (2) 0.7 (7) 0.4 (5) 0.5 Islamic Jihad 2.6 (28) 2.0 (23) 1.0 (13) 1.9 (19) 2.4 (29) 2.0 DFLP 1.4 (15) 1.5 (17) 1.1 (14) 0.8 (7) 0.8 (10) 1.1 Independent Islamist 3.7 (39) 3.6 (41) 4.4 (55) 3.7 (36) 4.6 (56) 4.0 Independent Nationalist 4.9 (52) 3.2 (36) 6.0 (75) 4.5 (44) 5.5 (68) 4.8 None of the Above 11.7 (125) 13.8 (157) 25.0 (314) 28.1 (275) 25.9 (318) 20.9 Others 7.7 (82) 4.8 (55) 5.3 (67) 2.9 (28) 3.0 (37) 4.7 Total 100 (1068) 100 (1136) 100 (1258) 100 (980) 100 (1228) --- In this poll, there are some notable demographic differences between the three largest political groups (Fateh, Hamas and None of the Above) among Palestinians. For example, male and the less educated respondents in the sample tend to be more supportive of Fateh. Also, more women (68.0%) than men (32.0%) identify their political affiliation with Hamas. (See Table 15.)
Table 15
Political Affiliation with Fateh, Hamas and None of the Above by Selected Demographic Variables, percentages & counts
Fateh Hamas None of the Above Total 43.6 (531) 8.1 (100) 25.9 (318) Gender
Male
Female
53.5 (286)
46.5 (249)
32.0 (32)
68.0 (68)
47.5 (151)
52.5 (167)Education
Illiterate-
Elementary
Preparatory-
Secondary
2-Year College
B.A.-Post Graduate27.9 (148)
56.3 (299)
14.7 (78)
1.1 (6)26.5 (26)
58.2 (57)
14.3 (14)
1.0 (1)27.4 (87)
51.4 (163)
20.2 (64)
0.9 (3)As discussed above, most respondents assess the performance of the Legislative Council, Judicial and the Executive (including the President and his Cabinet) branches of the Palestinian Authority between a range of good to fair. It is the case that these evaluations are strongly related to political affiliation. That is, political groups and parties associated with the opposition to continuing the peace process with Israel, tend to give lower evaluations to the government and its institutions. Conversely, those who support the government tend also to support the peace process.
As can be expected, respondents affiliated with Fateh give the highest overall evaluations for each branch of the government. Moreover, they give the highest evaluation to their President (83 mean score), then to his Cabinet (75 mean score), dropping ten-points for the Council (65 mean score). Hamas affiliates, on the other hand, express their evaluations on the lower end of the scale: President (65 mean score), the Cabinet (62 mean score) and finally the Legislative Council (53 mean score). Respondent with None of the Above political affiliation straddle Fateh and Hamas in terms of their evaluation scores. (See Chart 4 for a graphic comparison of evaluations for the President and Legislative Council by political affiliation of respondents).
Chart 4
Performance of the President and the Palestinian Legislative Council by Political Affiliation, mean scores
As shown in Chart 4, the President tops the evaluation scores, receiving higher scores, even from the opposition, than the Palestinian Legislative Council. The greatest difference between evaluations of the President and the Council is within Fateh, followed by Islamic Jihad. It should be pointed out, however, that respondents affiliated with Islamic Jihad are the most critical of both the President and the Council than any other political group or party, where as supporters of Fateh give the highest approval ratings. Political parties and groups, considered left of center in Palestinian politics, tend to give high evaluation scores for both the President and the Council. Those parties and groups to the right of center, on the other hand, tend to evaluate all branches of the government lower than the average but also give the highest scores to the President and lower scores for the Council's performance.
To summarize, the results of this poll show a strong relationship between approval of the Palestinian Authority, its branches of government and institutions, and support or opposition to the peace process with Israel. The relationship is evident in several attitudinal variables, regarding expectations toward a State, outlook toward the future and on specific issues such as defense of Jerusalem and land against confiscation. That is, those who support the continuation of the peace process tend to also be less critical toward domestic issues than those who oppose it. Moreover, although a sizable percentage of the population opposes the continuation of the peace process and is critical of the PA, on the whole most respondents endorse the continuation of the peace process and are mainly satisfied with their government, especially the President and his Executive Cabinet.
Total West Bank Gaza Strip Unemployment 38.0% 34.0% 45.0%
1. How often do you follow the news?
Always 38.0 (467) 38.3 (297) 37.5 (170) Often 16.9 (208) 17.4 (135) 16.1 (73) Sometimes 40.9 (502) 40.6 (315) 41.3 (187) Not Sure 4.2 (51) 3.6 (28) 5.1 (23)
2. Generally, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future?
Optimistic 53.0 (652) 51.4 (399) 55.7 (253) Pessimistic 41.6 (512) 44.1 (342) 37.4(170) Not Sure 5.4 (66) 4.5 (35) 6.8 (31)
3. Do you support or oppose the peace process between Palestinians and Israelis?
Support 69.8 (856) 67.8 (524) 73.3 (332) Oppose 24.8 (304) 26.4 (204) 22.1 (100) Don't Know 5.4 (66) 5.8 (45) 4.6 (21)
4. In your opinion, how has the peace process affected the Palestinian economy?
More Positively 2.4 (29) 1.7 (13) 3.5 (16) Positively 8.7 (107) 8.3 (64) 9.5 (43) Between 19.4 (239) 17.8 (138) 22.2 (101) Negatively 38.9(479) 40.9 (317) 35.6 (162) More Negatively 27.5 (338) 28.1 (218) 26.4 (120)
5. Do you expect that the peace process will lead to a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip in the coming years?
Yes 50.9 (624) 49.4 (382) 53.5 (242) No 33.5 (410) 37.0 (286) 27.4 (124) Not Sure 15.6 (191) 13.6 (105) 19.0 (86)
6. How do you evaluate the press coverage of the activities of the PLC?
Very Good 9.0 (111) 6.8 (53) 12.7 (58) Good 32.8 (404) 31.9 (248) 34.2(156) Between 24.2 (298) 23.6 (183) 25.2 (115) Bad 13.6 (168) 16.2 (126) 9.2 (42) Very Bad 4.1 (51) 4.0 (31) 4.4 (20) No Opinion 16.3 (201) 17.5(136) 14.3 (65)
7. Are you interested in the activities of the PLC?
Total West Bank Gaza Strip
Yes 54.8 (673) 51.7 (400) 60.1 (273) Sometimes 24.2 (297) 23.1 (179) 26.0 (118) No 18.2 (224) 21.7 (168) 12.3 (56) No Opinion 2.8 (34) 3.5 (27) 1.5 (7)
8. Generally, how do evaluate the performance of the PLC?
Very Good 9.6 (118) 8.2 (64) 11.8 (54) Good 37.9 (467) 38.0 (295) 37.7 (172) Between 25.0 (308) 25.1 (195) 24.8 (113) Bad 8.7 (107) 8.5 (66) 9.0 (41) Very Bad 4.6 (57) 5.1 (40) 3.7 (17) No Opinion 14.3 (176) 15.1 (117) 12.9 (59)
9. How do you evaluate the performance of the PLC in the following areas:
a) Defending human rights
Very Good 12.6 (155) 10.9 (85) 15.4 (70) Good 39.2 (483) 39.6 (308) 38.4 (175) Between 20.9 (258) 19.9 (155) 22.6 (103) Bad 13.6 (168) 14.5 (113) 12.1(55) Very Bad 4.4 (54) 4.8 (37) 3.7 (17) No Opinion 9.3 (115) 10.2 (79) 7.9 (36)
b) Defending land against settlements
Very Good 21.9 (270) 19.0 (147) 27.0 (123) Good 38.0 (468) 40.1 (311) 34.4 (157) Between 12.9 (159) 12.3 (95) 14.0 (64) Bad 13.6 (167) 13.9 (108) 12.9 (59) Very Bad 7.2 (89) 8.1 (63) 5.7 (26) No Opinion 6.3 (78) 6.6 (51) 5.9 (27)
c) Adopting laws that enhance democracy
Very Good 7.1 (87) 4.7 (36) 11.2 (51) Good 35.3 (434) 35.5 (275) 35.0 (159) Between 19.0 (233) 16.0 (124) 24.0 (109) Bad 16.1 (198) 18.0 (139) 13.0 (59) Very Bad 5.4 (66) 5.7 (44) 4.8 (22) No Opinion 17.1 (210) 20.2 (156) 11.9 (54)
d) Relationship with the Executive authority
Very Good 11.7 (144) 8.3 (64) 17.6 (80) Good 40.1 (492) 39.8 (307) 40.7 (185) Between 12.7 (156) 12.6 (97) 13.0 (59) Bad 7.0 (86) 7.9 (61) 5.5 (25) Very Bad 1.9 (23) 2.1 (16) 1.5 (7) No Opinion 26.5 (325) 29.4 (227) 21.6 (98)
e) Defending Jerusalem
Very Good 38.3 (472) 32.0 (248) 49.1 (224) Good 32.5 (400) 35.8 (278) 26.8 (122) Between 9.7 (119) 9.3 (72) 10.3 (47) Bad 8.1 (100) 9.4 (73) 5.9 (27) Very Bad 5.7 (70) 6.8 (53) 3.7 (70) No Opinion 5.8 (71) 6.7 (52) 4.2 (19)
f) Prisoners
Very Good 19.6 (241) 15.9 (123) 25.9 (118) Good 31.3 (385) 32.3 (251) 29.4 (134) Between 15.3 (189) 14.4 (112) 16.9 (77) Bad 16.0 (197) 16.9 (131) 14.5 (66) Very Bad 11.6 (143) 13.9 (108) 7.7 (35) No Opinion 6.2 (76) 6.4 (50) 5.7 (26)
g) Negotiations with Israel
Very Good 12.3 (151) 10.3 (80) 15.6 (71) Good 29.6 (365) 31.0 (241) 27.3 (124) Between 20.4 (251) 19.0 (148) 22.6 (103) Bad 19.5 (240) 19.2 (149) 20.0 (91) Very Bad 7.6 (94) 7.9 (61) 7.3 (33) No Opinion 10.6 (130) 12.5 (97) 7.3 (33)
h) Resolving citizens' problems
Very Good 9.4 (115) 7.4 (57) 12.7 (58) Good 32.1 (394) 32.3 (249) 31.9 (145) Between 19.2 (235) 18.3 (141) 20.7 (94) Bad 20.1 (246) 20.6 (159) 19.1 (87) Very Bad 10.1 (124) 10.4 (80) 9.7 (44) No Opinion 9.1 (112) 11.0 (85) 5.9 (27)
10. Generally, how do evaluate the performance of your district representative to the PLC?
Very Good 12.5 (151) 10.5 (79) 15.9 (72) Good 33.5 (405) 35.1 (265) 30.8 (140) Between 20.4 (247) 18.3 (138) 24.0 (109) Bad 11.9 (144) 12.5 (94) 11.0 (50) Very Bad 7.0 (85) 7.8 (59) 5.7 (26) No Opinion 14.6 (177) 15.9 (120) 12.6 (57)
11. How do evaluate the performance of the government in the following areas:
a) Education
Very Good 34.1 (419) 28.8 (222) 43.2 (197) Good 44.3 (543) 47.3 (365) 39.0 (178) Between 10.4(128) 11.0 (85) 9.4 (43) Bad 6.1 (75) 7.3 (56) 4.2 (19) Very Bad 1.5 (19) 1.3 (10) 2.0 (9) No Opinion 3.5 (43) 4.3 (33) 2.2 (10)
b) Health
Very Good 21.3 (261) 15.4 (119) 31.1 (142) Good 45.2 (554) 44.7 (345) 45.8 (209) Between 14.7 (180) 15.2 (117) 13.8 (63) Bad 10.4 (128) 13.5 (104) 5.3 (24) Very Bad 3.9 (48) 4.7 (36) 2.6 (12) No Opinion 4.6 (56) 6.5 (50) 1.3 (6)
c) Economy
Very Good 2.5 (31) 2.1 (16) 3.3 (15) Good 18.3 (225) 18.9 (146) 17.3 (79) Between 23.6 (290) 21.8 (168) 26.8 (122) Bad 34.9 (428) 35.7(275) 33.6 (153) Very Bad 16.9 (207) 16.5 (127) 17.5 (80) No Opinion 3.7(46) 5.1 (39) 1.5 (7)
d) Democracy & Human Rights
Very Good 6.5 (80) 5.2 (40) 8.8 (40) Good 34.9 (428) 33.9 (261) 36.6 (167) Between 20.6 (252) 20.9 (161) 20.0 (91) Bad 19.7 (241) 20.3 (156) 18.6 (85) Very Bad 10.4(128) 9.7 (75) 11.6 (53) No Opinion 7.9 (97) 10.0 (77) 4.4 (20)
e) Security of Citizens
Very Good 21.5 (263) 16.1 (124) 30.5 (139) Good 43.9 (538) 45.2 (348) 41.7 (190) Between 13.7 (168) 13.9 (107) 13.4 (61) Bad 12.3(151) 14.0 (108) 9.4 (43) Very Bad 5.3 (65) 6.4 (49) 3.5 (16) No Opinion 3.3 (41) 4.4 (34) 1.5 (7)
12. Do you believe that the Executive authority should implement all of the decisions made by the PLC?
Yes 60.0 (734) 56.2 (433) 66.3 (301) No 23.6 (289) 25.8 (199) 19.8 (90) No Opinion 16.4 (201) 17.9 (138) 13.9 (63)
13. In your opinion, what direction is the government heading toward?
Democracy 31.9 (392) 29.2 (226) 36.6 (166) Dictatorship 17.4 (213) 18.9 (146) 14.8 (67) Combination of 38.3 (470) 39.1 (303) 36.9 (167) both Not Sure 12.4 (152) 12.8 (99) 11.7 (53)
14. Generally, how do you evaluate the performance of the judicial authority and courts?
Very Good 11.1 (136) 9.4 (73) 13.8 (63) Good 38.6 (474) 37.6 (291) 40.1 (183) Between 18.5 (227) 18.4 (142) 18.6 (85) Bad 8.6 (106) 7.8 (60) 10.1 (46) Very Bad 3.8 (47) 3.5 (27) 4.4 (20) No Opinion 19.4 (239) 23.3 (180) 12.9 (59)
15. Have you had any direct experience with the Palestinian police and security services? (if yes, go to #16)
Yes 19.6 (241) 17.9 (138) 22.7 (103) No 79.1 (971) 81.2 (628) 75.6 (343)
16. Generally, how do you evaluate the performance of the Palestinian police and security services?
Very Good 25.2 (60) 25.7 (35) 24.5 (25) Good 37.0 (88) 33.1 (45) 42.2 (43) Between 13.4 (32) 13.2 (18) 13.7 (14) Bad 13.4 (32) 16.9 (23) 8.8 (9) Very Bad 10.1 (24) 10.3 (14) 9.8 (10) No Opinion 0.8 (2) 0.7 (1) 1.0 (1)
17. Do you think that there is corruption in PA institutions? (if yes, go to 18)
Yes 49.3 (604) 49.7 (383) 48.7 (221) No 27.1 (332) 28.8 (222) 24.2 (110) Not Sure 23.6 (289) 21.5 (166) 27.1 (123)
18. Will this corruption in PA institutions increase or decrease in the future?
Increase 40.1 (242) 39.5 (151) 41.2 (91) Remain as it is 10.0 (60) 10.7 (41) 8.6 (19) Decrease 40.5 (244) 42.4 (162) 37.1 (82) No Opinion 9.5 (57) 7.3 (28) 13.1 (29)
19. Currently, the PLC is discussing municipal election laws for villages and cities. It is suggested that refugees should participate in these elections. Do you
Support 84.5 (1038) 82.7 (639) 87.7 (399) Oppose 9.4 (116) 10.7 (83) 7.3 (33) No Opinion 6.0 (74) 6.6 (51) 5.1 (23)
20. Generally, how do you evaluate the performance of the Palestinian government (the Cabinet)?
Very Good 13.7 (168) 10.5 (81) 19.3 (87) Good 48.9 (597) 49.4 (381) 47.9 (216) Between 20.2 (247) 20.6 (159) 19.5 (88) Bad 7.2 (88) 8.2 (63) 5.5 (25) Very Bad 2.5 (31) 3.0 (23) 1.8 (8) No Opinion 7.4 (91) 8.3 (64) 6.0 (27)
21. Generally, how do evaluate the performance of the institution of the Presidency?
Very Good 29.2 (358) 24.2 (187) 37.6 (171) Good 42.8 (525) 43.8 (338) 41.1 (187) Between 12.1 (149) 13.0 (100) 10.8 (49) Bad 6.5 (80) 8.3 (64) 3.5 (16) Very Bad 3.2 (39) 4.1 (32) 1.5 (7) No Opinion 6.2 (76) 6.6 (51) 5.5 (25)
22. In comparison to election day, do you believe that Arafat's popularity has
Increased 52.4 (641) 50.5 (389) 55.5 (252) No Change 20.4 (250) 17.8 (137) 24.9 (113) Decreased 21.3(261) 25.5 (196) 14.3 (65) No Opinion 5.9 (72) 6.2 (48) 5.3 (24)
23. Which political party do you support?
PPP 1.7 (21) 1.6 (12) 2.0 (9) PFLP 4.0(49) 4.1 (32) 3.7 (17) Fateh 43.6 (535) 41.8 (323) 46.6 (212) Hamas 8.1(100) 8.3 (64) 7.9 (36) DFLP 0.8 (10) 0.9 (7) 0.7 (3) Islamic Jihad 2.4(29) 2.5 (19) 2.2 (10) Fida 0.4 (5) 0.5 (4) 0.2 (1) Independent 4.6 (56) 5.6 (43) 2.9 (13) Islamists Independent 5.5 (68) 6.2 (48) 4.4 (20) Nationalists No One 25.9 (318) 24.7 (191) 27.9 (127) Other (specify) 3.0 (37) 3.9(30) 1.5 (7)
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