• About 30% of the West Bank settlers believe that a Palestinian state will be established in the next 5-10 years, while 32% believe that the peace process will fail and the Israeli army will reoccupy the West Bank. Back in December 1995, 39% of the settlers believed that a Palestinian state will be established while 26% believed that the Israeli army will reoccupy the West Bank. These results represent an important negative development in the settlers' expectations toward the future of the political status of the West Bank compared to expectations a year and a half ago when the first settlers poll was conducted by CPRS in December 1995. The first poll was conducted during the tenure of the Israeli Labor government and during the Israeli army redeployment from West Bank cities. The current poll was conducted after the Likud electoral victory, the acceleration of the settlements activities and the deadlock in the peace process. These current developments seem to have emboldened the settlers, raised their morale and hardened their positions.

• The shift in the settlers position can also be seen in the way they look at the future of their settlements: only 7% expressed the view that most settlements will be dismantled in 5-10 years compared to 22% a year and a half ago. Moreover, the percentage of those who believe that the settlements will be annexed to Israel has risen from 21% in the previous poll to 31% in the current one.

• The poll shows a decrease in the percentage of those ready to evacuate their settlements in exchange for fair compensation from the Israeli government from 30% in the previous poll to 23% in the current one. The percentage of those refusing to accept compensation rose from 58% to 67%.

• The percentage of those willing to sell their property to a Palestinian buyer has also declined from 15% to 13% while those refusing to consider such a transaction rose from 72% to 79%.

• The percentage of those rejecting under any conditions to accept an Israeli government decision to evacuate settlements in the West Bank rose from 31% to 44%, while the percentage of those willing to consider evacuation under certain conditions declined form 58% to 49%.

• The percentage of those willing to consider use of force to resist a government decision to evacuate settlements rose from 8% to 13%. Despite that, the percentage of those advocating active, including violent, confrontations with the Israeli army remained the same at 2%.

• No change has been registered in the percentage of those willing to live under Palestinian sovereignty: 17% in the current poll compared to 16% in the previous one.

• About 30% of the Israeli settlers in the West Bank expressed support for the so-called Allon-Plus proposal of the Israeli Prime Minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, for the permanent settlement with the Palestinians, while 51% opposed it. Beilin-Abu Mazin proposals for the permanent settlement received the support of only 12% while 77% of the settlers opposed it.

• Despite the further radicalization of the Israeli settlers, their motivation to move to the West Bank remained predominantly economic and not religious or ideological. About 42% said their motivation was primarily economic, while 27% said it was religious/ideological.

• Finally, settlers' views regarding the impact of the peace process on their future relations with the Palestinians have also undergone negative development as 41% of them (compared to 36% previously) expressed the views that it will worsen the relationship while 14% (compared to 16% previously) expressed the views that it will improve the relationship.

This poll confirms the findings of the previous one showing most settlers as well-educated and having an above-average income. Most immigrated to Israel before 1988. About 44% of them define themselves as Orthodox or ultra-Orthodox, while 23% see themselves as "traditional" and 33% as secular. About 50% of settlers' labor force work inside Israel and another 50% work in the West Bank. About 30% of all settlers own houses inside Israel. Most settlers (72%) were born in Israel and the rest came from Asian-African countries (6%); the former Soviet Union (5%); Europe, North America and Canada (10%).

Sex	June 97	Dec. 95	Place of Birth	June 97	Dec. 95
Male	48.9	47.8	Asia-Africa (excl. Israel	06.3	10.2
Female	51.1	52.2	USSR	05.4	05.5
Place of Work			Western Europe	03.8	04.3
Inside Israel	50.0	51.0	USA/Canada	06.3	05.3
West Bank	50.0	49.0	Other	06.0	05.3
Immigration Year			Native Israeli: Father born in Israel	29.8	21.2
Before 1988	82.2	83.2	Native Israeli: Father born in Asia/Africa	23.0	29.4
After 1988	17.8	16.8	Native Israeli: Father born in Eur/America	19.4	18.8
Income (1995: 4600 NIS, 1997: 5200 NIS			Religious Orientations
Far below average	09.3	10.2	Ultra Orthodox	13.2	08.4
Little below average	14.9	12.0	Orthodox	30.8	37.0
Average	25.2	26.3	Traditional	22.5	20.5
Little above average	31.5	31.1	Secular	33.2	33.9
Far above average	18.1	18.8	No Answer	00.3	----
Age			Education
18-24	26.3	16.2	Elementary or less	02.4	01.0
25-34	30.4	35.6	Partial High school	05.1	07.5
35-44	23.3	29.9	High school	37.5	38.1
45-54	13.2	12.3	Above high school	18.8	18.9
55-64	04.5	04.3	Partial academic	11.9	07.1
65 and over	02.3	01.6	Academic degree	24.3	27.5
Own a house inside Israel
Yes	29.5	20.0
No	70.5	80.0

						June 97		Dec. 95

1) When you first moved to West Bank, what were the primary
considerations that motivated you?

1. Economic considerations 			42.4 		37.8 
2. Religious/ideological considerations 	26.9 		33.5 
3. To defend the security of the state 		02.6		00.8 
4. Social considerations			07.3		13.9 
   (to be with friends)
5. I arrived with my parents			17.3		09.6
   (I came as a young child/
   I was born here) 
6. Others					03.0		04.3

2) How do you view the impact of the peace process between
Israel and the Palestinians on the relationship between the settlers
and the Palestinians in the short run? 

1. It will improve the relationship		13.8		15.9 
   between the settlers 
   and the Palestinians.
2. It will worsen the relationship		40.5		36.4
   between the settlers
   and the Palestinians.
3. It will not have an impact on		33.0		31.7
   the relationship between the 
   two sides.
4. Don't Know					12.7		16.0

3) Given the current status of the peace process between Israel
and the Palestinians, where do you think things will be five to
ten years from now? 

1. Self-rule will be contained and not		20.4		18.4
   develop to become a Palestinian state.
2. A Palestinian state will be			30.1		38.7
   established in Judea and Samaria
   (West Bank). 
3. The peace process will fail, and the		32.1		26.0
   IDF will return to exert control over 
   Judea and Samaria(West Bank).
4. Don't Know/ No Response			17.4		16.8

4) What will be, in your opinion, the status of the settlements
in West Bank in five to ten years? 

1. Most will be annexed to Israel		31.2		20.5 
2. The status quo will remain			31.3		18.0 
3. Most will stay within Palestinian		16.3		16.0
   territory with extra territorial 
   status.
4. Most will be under Palestinian		04.0		04.7
   sovereignty and the settlers will 
   be allowed to stay as permanent 
   residents.
5. Most settlements will be dismantled		06.7		22.3
6. Don't know					10.5		18.4

5) Would you seriously consider leaving your settlement in
exchange for fair compensation from the Israeli government? 

1. Yes						22.6		29.5
2. No						66.9		57.5
3. Don't know/ Not Applicable			10.5		13.0

6) If a Palestinian state should rise in five to ten years
from today, would you consider staying on the settlement as a
citizen of Israel under Palestinian sovereignty? 

1. Yes						17.3		15.7
2. No 						69.3		71.4
3. Don't know					13.3		12.9

7) Would you seriously consider a fair business offer from
a Palestinian to buy your home or business on the settlement?

1. Yes						12.8		15.3
2. No.						79.1		71.6
3. Don't know/ Not Applicable			08.1		13.2

8) Would you be willing to accept a government resolution to
evacuate the Jewish settlements in the West Bank? If so, under
what conditions? 

1. Would not accept under any conditions	44.1		30.8
2. Would accept only if the resolution		24.3		22.7
   was adopted by a special Jewish 
   majority of the Knesset (i.e., by at 
   least two-thirds of the Jewish members 
   of Knesset).
3. Would accept even if the resolution		10.9		15.1
   was adopted by a regular Jewish 
   majority of the Knesset.
4. Would accept even if the resolution		14.2		20.6
   was adopted by a regular majority of 
   the Knesset (i.e. without consideration 
   of it being Jewish or Arab).
5. Don't Know/ No Response			06.5		10.8

9) Would you consider resisting in force (i.e. use of fire
arms or other lethal weapons) a government ordered evacuation
of the settlements in West Bank? 

1. Yes						12.5		07.8
2. No						82.1		82.6
3. Don't know/ No Response			05.4		09.6

10) Do you advocate or oppose confrontations between the Jewish
residents of the West Bank and the IDF in the following situation:
Evacuation of settlements in West Bank

1. Oppose any confrontation with the IDF	73.2		60.6
2. Advocate verbal confrontation only		09.5		16.5
3. Advocate passive physical			11.7		14.5
   confrontation only (passive resistance)
4. Advocate active confrontation as well	02.2		02.2
   (hitting, use of lethal weapons, etc).
5. Undecided/don't know				03.4		06.3

11) Recently, the outline of the so-called Allon-Plus plan
of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu for a territorial settlement
with the Palestinians was published. Based on this plan, all settlers
and settlements in the West Bank would be annexed to Israel and
about half of the West Bank would be transferred to the Palestinian
Authority. Do you support or oppose this plan

1. Strongly support 				08.9 
2. Support					21.2
3. Oppose					23.2
4. Strongly oppose				27.4
5. Don't Know/ No Response			19.3

12) In the so-called Abu-Mazin Beilin plan, a territorial exchange
between Palestinians and Israelis is proposed. Based on this plan,
most settlers and settlements, particularly those next to the
green line are to be annexed to Israel. Those settlements not
annexed to Israel would remain under Palestinian sovereignty and
settlers safety and security would be guaranteed by the agreement.
The area to be annexed to Israel would be approximately 10% of
the West Bank and does not include the Jordan Valley. Do you support
or oppose this paln?

1. Strongly support				04.0
2. Support 					08.1
3. Oppose					22.4
4. Strongly oppose 				54.1
5. Don't Know/ No Response			11.4

13) Where do you work?

1. In West Bank, or				35.8		37.6
2. On the western side of the Green Line	36.0		39.7
3. Don't work					28.2		22.7

14) Do you have, under the ownership of a family member who
lives with you, a place of residence in Israel, i.e., on the western
side of the green line? 

1. Yes						29.5		19.4
2. No						70.5		80.0
3. Others					00.0		00.6

15) How do you define yourself in terms of religious orientation?

1. Ultra-orthodox				13.2		08.4
2. Orthodox					30.8		37.0
3. Traditional					22.5		20.5
4. Secular					33.2		33.9
5. Others					00.3		00.2

16) For which party did you vote?

						Elections 96	Elections 92

1. Likud					36.0		25.6
   Tzomet					09.0
   Gesher					-----
2. Labor					07.9		12.5
3. Meretz					00.8		01.2
4. Third Way					02.8 		-----
5. Moledet					05.7		03.3
6. Yisrael BeAlia				00.8		-----
7. NRP						20.4		14.9
8. Yahadut HaTorah				04.0		03.1
9. Shas						03.4		03.5
10.Hethiyah					----		04.3
11. Did not vote				10.5		14.5
12. No Response					06.9		----- 

						June 97		Dec. 95

17) The average monthly income per family in Israel is about
5200 NIS (in 1995 it was 4600 NIS) (net). Is your family's monthly
income average, below average, or above average? 

1. Far below average				09.3		10.2
2. A little below average			14.9		12.0
3. Average					25.2		26.3
4. A little above average			31.5		31.1
5. Far above average				18.1		18.8
6. No answer					01.0		00.0