The Department of Strategic Analysis at CPRS has conducted a public opinion poll among Israeli settlers in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The poll is part of a project on "Final Status Negotiations: Settlements," conducted by the Department. Interviews were carried out over the phone in October 1999 in cooperation with the BESA Center for Strategic Studies at Bar Ilan University. The sample size is 502, in 115 settlements. The margin of error is + 4.5%.

Introduction
Main Findings
Who Are the Israeli Settlers?
Sample Distribution
Results

Introduction

This is the third survey conducted among Israeli settlers in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The first survey was conducted during the Rabin government in December 1995, and the second was conducted in June 1997 during the Netanyahu government. This survey was conducted five months after the election of Barak as Israel’s Prime Minister.

The results indicate that several changes have occurred in the demographic characteristics of the settlers during the past four years. The percentage of those over the age of 45 years has increased from 18% in 1995 to 20% in 1997 to 26% in 1999. The percentage of those holding BA degree or higher has increased from 28% in 1995 to 33% in 1999. Despite this change in the educational level, the percentage of those with income below the Israeli average increased from 22% in 1995 to 24% in 1997 to 28% in 1999. The percentage of those who identify themselves as Orthodox or ultra-Orthodox increased from 45% in 1995 to 52% in 1999. The percentage of those who work in the West Bank and Gaza has increased from 40% in 1995 to 42% in 1999. Finally, the percentage of those who own a house inside Israel has increased from 20% in 1995 to 26% in 1999, with a decrease of 4 percentage points compared to that of 1997 (30%).

The survey shows changes in the public opinion of settlers during the same period. The most significant changes have been the increase in the percentage of those who believe that a Palestinian state will soon emerge; the increase in the percentage of those who are willing to live under Palestinian sovereignty; and the increase in the percentage of those who oppose a confrontation with the Israeli army in the case of settlement evacuation. On the other hand, there has been an increase in the percentage of those who refuse to accept settlement evacuation under any circumstances. The survey shows also that some current views of settlers reflect middle ground between those expressed by settlers under Rabin and those expressed under Netanyahu.

Main Findings

• 44% believe that a Palestinian state will be established within the next 5 to 10 years, while 33% believe that the peace process will fail and the Israeli army will reoccupy the West Bank.
• 27% believe that most settlements in the West Bank and Gaza will be annexed to Israel; 17% believe that most settlements will become Israeli sovereign enclaves inside Palestinian areas. Only 11% believe that most settlements will be dismantled and 5% believe that most will be brought under Palestinian sovereignty.
• 25% of settlers are willing to evacuate the settlements in return for compensation, while 71% oppose that.
• 20% are willing to live under Palestinian sovereignty while 67% reject that.
• 12% are willing to sell their property in settlements to Palestinian buyers, while 83% reject that. At the same time 23% are willing to accept a Palestinian as their neighbor in the settlement while 77% reject that.
• Half of the settlers oppose the evacuation of settlements under any circumstances, while 42% are willing to accept evacuation if approved in the Knesset within specific conditions.
• 14% are ready to consider resistance in force of a government decision to evacuate settlements in the West Bank and Gaza while 79% are not ready to do that. One the other hand, 80% oppose any confrontation with the Israeli army, and only 2% advocate violent confrontations in order to prevent the evacuation of settlements.
• Half of the settlers support Barak’s plan to concentrate settlers in several settlement blocs that would be annexed to Israel, while 36% oppose it.
• Settlers motivations to move to the West Bank and Gaza vary: 46% came for economic reasons, 27% for ideological and religious reasons, and only 4% came to defend the security of Israel.
• Only 13% believe that the peace process will improve the relationship between settlers and Palestinians, while 36% believe that it will make it worse, and 38% believe that it will have no impact.
• A majority of 72% of the settlers voted for Netanyahu as Prime Minister in the May 1999 elections, while 18% voted for Barak.
• Similarly, a majority of the settlers voted for religious and right wing parties, with the Likud receiving 24% of the vote, followed by the National Unity (13%), the Mifdal (12%), Shas (8%), and Yahdot Hatorah (6%). Only 9% voted for One Israel (Labor) and 4% voted for Shinoi. Less than one percent vote for Tsomet or the Third Way. The new Center Party received 2% of the settlers vote according to the survey.