PSR - Survey Research Unit: Public Opinion Poll # 14 Poll 14 press release
Results of Poll # (14)

 

01-05 December 2004

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

01) Have you registered to vote in your area of residence?

1) Yes (go to Q03)

74.4

73.3

76.2

2) No

25.6

26.7

23.8

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

02) Presidential election will take place on January 9. Do you plan to register before this date?

1) Certainly yes

15.4

13.0

20.7

2) Yes

41.7

41.1

43.1

3) No

28.5

33.2

18.1

4) Certainly no

7.9

6.7

10.3

5) DK/NA

6.5

5.9

7.8

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

03) Do you intend to participate in the presidential elections?

1) Certainly yes (go to q5)

56.7

54.6

60.2

2) Yes (go to q5)

25.1

25.9

23.8

3) No

13.1

15.0

9.8

4) Certainly no

2.8

2.5

3.3

5) Undecided

2.3

1.9

2.9

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

04) If national legislative election were to take place at the same time as the presidential elections, would you in this case participate in it?

1) Certainly yes

19.5

18.6

21.2

2) Yes

34.1

32.6

37.2

3) No

32.0

34.4

27.4

4) Certainly no

10.4

9.8

11.5

5) Undecided

4.0

4.7

2.7

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

05) If Palestinian opposition forces called for a boycott of the presidential elections, you would:

1) Certainly, you will boycott

8.8

8.3

9.7

2) Think you will

14.0

16.2

10.1

3) Think you will not boycott

41.2

43.8

36.6

4) Certainly, you will not boycott

27.1

21.9

36.0

5) No Opinion /Don’t know

9.0

9.8

7.5

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

06) Do you believe the Palestinian Authority is serious and truthful about holding national legislative elections in the near term?

1) Certainly yes

24.0

22.1

27.1

2) Yes

49.1

53.1

42.2

3) No

16.5

16.1

17.0

4) Certainly no

3.1

3.2

2.9

5) No Opinion /Don’t know

7.4

5.4

10.8

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

07) If local elections were held and were fair, which candidates in your views are likely to win, those nominated by family regardless of their political affiliation or those nominated by Fateh and Hamas/Islamic Jihad or the independents?

1) Fateh candidate

42.0

44.0

38.6

2) Hamas/Islamic Jihad candidate

19.7

15.2

27.6

3) Neither, instead family candidate

10.9

13.6

6.2

4) Independent

14.0

15.3

11.6

5) Other (specify ----)

2.5

3.0

1.7

6) No Opinion /Don’t know

10.8

8.9

14.3

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

08) And what about you? Will you give your vote in the next local elections to candidates from Fateh, Hamas/Islamic Jihad, or independents? Or will you vote for your family candidate regardless of his or her political affiliation?

1) Fateh

36.8

38.2

34.2

2) Hamas/Islamic Jihad

20.3

16.3

27.2

3) Independent

13.1

14.6

10.6

4) Family

10.9

12.8

7.5

5) Other

7.6

6.8

8.9

6) Will not participate

5.4

5.7

4.8

6) No Opinion /Don’t know

6.0

5.5

6.8

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

09) The Palestinian Authority is currently conducting consultations with Palestinian factions to arrange for a ceasefire. Do you support or oppose such a ceasefire?

1) Strongly support

27.3

21.9

36.7

2) Support

52.2

57.3

43.4

3) Oppose

16.5

17.0

15.8

4) Strongly oppose

2.4

2.4

2.5

5) No Opinion /Don’t know

1.5

1.4

1.7

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

10) Would you support or oppose a call for an immediate return to the negotiation table?

1) Strongly support

23.5

19.0

31.3

2) Support

56.6

62.4

46.5

3) Oppose

15.4

14.8

16.4

4) Strongly Oppose

2.7

2.2

3.5

5) No Opinion /Don’t know

1.8

1.6

2.3

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

11) In your opinion, is it possible to negotiate these days a compromise settlement with the current Israeli leadership?

1) Definitely possible

9.5

8.7

10.8

2) Think it’s possible

42.3

43.8

39.7

3) Think it’s impossible

33.6

34.1

32.6

4) Definitely impossible

14.1

12.9

16.2

5) No Opinion /Don’t know

0.5

0.5

0.6

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

12) And if a compromise settlement is negotiated with the Israeli leadership, do you think the Israeli leaders are strong enough to convince the Israelis to accept such a compromise settlement?

1) Definitely they are

19.1

20.5

16.6

2) Think they are

38.7

41.1

34.6

3) Think they are not

26.8

25.3

29.5

4) Definitely they are not

9.9

7.9

13.3

5) No Opinion /Don’t know

5.5

5.3

6.0

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

13) And what about the Palestinian leaders? Are they strong enough to convince the Palestinian people to accept a compromise settlement with Israel?

1) Definitely they are

13.2

12.4

14.5

2) Think they are

42.3

43.4

40.5

3) Think they are not

28.5

30.6

24.7

4) Definitely they are not

12.1

10.0

15.8

5) No Opinion /Don’t know

3.9

3.5

4.6

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

14) The US, Russia, the European Community and the UN, the so called "Quartet", have put forward a "roadmap" for the implementation of a final settlement within 3 years. The plan includes a demand for political reforms in the Palestinian authority including a constitution and election of a strong Prime Minister, stopping the incitement and violence on both sides under the Quartet's supervision, a demand for freeze on settlements and the establishment of a Palestinian State within provisional borders. The next phase will see negotiations on the final borders under the hospices of an international conference. Do you support or oppose this initiative?

1) Definitely support

9.3

8.3

11.0

2) Support

49.2

49.5

48.5

3) Oppose

29.9

31.2

27.6

4) Definitely oppose

7.6

7.1

8.5

5) No Opinion /Don’t know

4.1

3.9

4.4

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

15) And In your opinion can this plan still be implemented or cannot be implemented anymore?

1) Definitely can be implemented

6.0

5.5

6.8

2) Think that can be implemented

39.9

42.2

35.9

3) Think that it cannot be implemented

36.0

36.2

35.7

4) Definitely cannot be implemented

11.8

10.4

14.1

5) No Opinion /Don’t know

6.4

5.7

7.5

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

16) How soon do you think will a political settlement between Israel and the Palestinians be achieved?

1) A political settlement is not possible ever

34.4

34.0

35.1

2) Only in many generations to come

21.2

24.3

15.8

3) Only in the next generation

9.8

9.9

9.5

4) Only in the next decade

4.2

4.3

3.9

5) Only in the next few years

22.6

20.2

27.2

6) No Opinion /Don’t know

7.8

7.4

8.5

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

17) If the Israeli government evacuates the Gaza settlements and withdraws completely from the Gaza Strip, including the border strip with Egypt and the international border crossing in Rafah, and if it lifts the air and see blockade so that the airport and sea port would function again, would you in this case support or oppose armed attacks against Israeli targets from the Gaza Strip?

1) Strongly support

7.7

7.9

7.3

2) Support

30.0

33.7

23.7

3) Oppose

48.6

47.2

51.0

4) Strongly oppose

10.8

7.8

16.2

5) No Opinion /Don’t know

2.8

3.3

1.9

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

18) When Israel withdraws from the Gaza Strip, are you worried about internal Palestinian infighting in the Strip?

1) Very worried

15.7

11.0

23.9

2) Worried

43.2

47.7

35.6

3) Not worried

29.7

32.7

24.5

4) Not worried at all

9.1

6.5

13.7

5) No Opinion /Don’t know

2.2

2.2

2.3

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

19) How would you evaluate the capacity of the PA to control matters in the Gaza strip after Israeli withdrawal from it?

1) High capacity

29.4

26.6

34.2

2) Enough capacity

41.6

41.0

42.7

3) Low capacity

18.8

21.8

13.5

4) No capacity at all

7.7

8.7

5.8

5) No Opinion /Don’t know

2.6

1.9

3.8

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

20) Do you see Sharon's plan to evacuate the Israeli settlements from Gaza as a victory for the Palestinian armed resistance against Israel or don't you see it as a victory?

1) Definitely this is a victory

40.4

35.3

49.4

2) I think that this is a victory

34.9

39.0

27.8

3) I think this is not a victory

17.2

19.6

13.1

4) Definitely this is not a victory

5.8

4.7

7.7

5) No Opinion /Don’t know

1.7

1.4

2.1

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

21) And how do you think most Palestinians see Sharon's plan? Do most Palestinians see it or don't see it as a victory for their armed struggle?

1) Most Palestinians see it as a victory for their armed struggle

78.0

76.7

80.3

2) Most Palestinians don't see it as a victory for their armed struggle

16.3

17.8

13.7

5) No Opinion /Don’t know

5.7

5.5

6.0

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

22) What do you expect to happen now after the death of Yasir Arafat and the appointment of Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazin) as head of the PLO, Ahmad Quari (Abu Ala) head of the National Security Council, and Rouhi Fattouh a temporary president of the PA?

1) Negotiations will resume soon enough and armed confrontations will stop

29.7

26.9

34.5

2) Negotiations will resume but some armed attacks will continue

53.0

54.4

50.7

3) Armed confrontations will not stop and the two sides will not return to negotiations

11.5

13.4

8.1

4) No Opinion /Don’t know

5.8

5.3

6.7

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

23) How will President Arafat’s death affect the chances for reaching a political settlement with Israel?

1) Certainly will increase the chances for a political settlement

28.0

25.5

32.4

2) I think it will increase the chances for a political settlement

25.0

27.5

20.7

3) It will have no impact on the chances for a political settlement

18.3

18.5

17.8

4) I think it will decrease the chances for a political settlement

16.6

17.7

14.7

5) Certainly it will decrease the chances for a political settlement

6.4

6.8

5.6

6) No Opinion /Don’t know

5.7

3.9

8.7

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

24) The late President Yasir Arafat contributed more than any other Palestinian in shaping the situation of the Palestinians. Are you satisfied or unsatisfied with his contribution in the following area?

24-1) Protect Palestinian rights in negotiations with Israel

1) Very satisfied

29.7

29.3

30.4

2) Satisfied

56.6

56.2

57.1

3) Unsatisfied

9.9

9.9

9.9

4) not satisfied at all

3.0

3.7

1.7

5) No Opinion /Don’t know

0.8

0.8

0.8

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

24-2) Promote the status of the Palestinian cause internationally7

1) Very satisfied

31.2

29.5

34.0

2) Satisfied

56.9

57.5

55.7

3) Unsatisfied

7.9

8.0

7.7

4) not satisfied at all

2.6

3.5

1.0

5) No Opinion /Don’t know

1.5

1.4

1.7

 

Total%

West Bank %

Gaza Strip%

24-3) Build a national authority with democratic governance

1) Very satisfied

17.4

15.6

20.5

2) Satisfied

49.7

50.4

48.7

3) Unsatisfied

25.2

26.4

23.2

4) not satisfied at all

5.8

6.2

5.2

5) No Opinion /Don’t know

1.8

1.4

2.5

 

Total%