PSR - Survey Research Unit: Exit Polls -Results of PSR Local Elections’ Exit Polls (May 2005)

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Results of PSR Local Elections’ Exit Polls

IN THE SECOND ROUND OF LOCAL ELECTIONS, FIGHTING CORRUPTION AND IMPROVING ECONOMIC CONDITIONS WERE THE TOP TWO PRIORITIES FOR VOTERS WHILE THE INTEGRITY AND INCORRUPTIBILITY WAS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN SELECTING CANDIDATES

May 2005

PSR conducted an exit poll during the second round of local elections on 5 May 2005. The exit poll aimed at understanding electoral behavior of voters and to predict the outcome of the elections immediately after the closing of the polling centers. The size of the sample used for prediction purposes reached 5202 and the sample used for survey research purposes reached 1767. The localities in which the exit poll was conducted were Rafah, al Bureij, Beit Lahia, and Abasan al Kabira in the Gaza Strip and Qalqilia, Bethlehem, Salfit, Beit Jala, Beit Sahour, Anata, Sair, Qabatia, Anabta, and Howwara in the West Bank.

The results of the exit poll in the 14 localities indicate that the role of political factions in determining the outcome of local elections has become greater than the case in the first round which was conducted in two installments in December 2004 (in the West Bank) and January 2005 (in the Gaza Strip). This is perhaps the most important difference between the two rounds. In other words, candidates and lists have become much more clearly identified with political factions and voters have become much more willing to vote for factions, not only for individual candidates. Factional competition in this round has become clearer and sharper than ever.

On the other hand, the issue of corruption has remained, as in the previous round, the most important voting driver. It has been identified as the one of the most important problems facing voters as well as the most important consideration when voters select their candidates. Fighting corruption has also been identified by the voters as the most important priority for the PA. The poll has found that the issue of corruption has been particularly important to Hamas’ voters.

Polls’ findings show also that a large majority (73%) of voters, including half of Hamas’ voters, support an immediate return to negotiations with Israel. They also show that the continuation of the intifada is not one of the top priorities to any group of voters including Hamas’. Economic needs and the demand for enforcing law and order emerge as the two most important considerations at the national level, i.e., when looking at voting intentions in the upcoming legislative elections.

For further information, please contact Dr. Khalil Shikaki kshikaki@pcpsr.org or Walid Ladadweh at the

Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, Ramallah, Palestine

Telephone 02 296 4933 Fax 02 296 4934

Methodology

PSR selected the largest 14 localities in the different governorates of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip from among a total of 84 localities in the second round of local elections. Ten out of 74 were selected in the West Band and 4 out of 8 in the Gaza Strip. The next step involved the random selection of 75% of voting centers devoted to the voters’ register in each locality. The total number of selected centers was 85 of which 40 centers were in the Gaza Strip and 45 in the West Bank. One polling station was randomly selected in each voting center. With regard to voting centers designated for the civil register, PSR selected only a small percentage, not more than 16% at best. The decision to drastically reduce the number of civil register’s centers in our sample was based on the experience of the presidential elections when voter turn out at these centers did not exceed 11% compared to 67% as centers belonging to the voter register.

Interviews were conducted with voters as they exited their voting stations after the vote. As indicated above, sSample size for research purposes was 1767.

The Problem of the Civil Register and the Wrong Prediction in Rafah

Contrary to expectations based on the experience of the presidential elections, turn out at the civil register stations was 33% rather than 11%. In the case of Rafah, our sampling problem was compounded by the fact (based on our exit poll results and the tentative results of the local election commission) that Hamas received more votes in these stations compared to voter register’s stations. As a result, PSR predicted, wrongly as it turned out in the tentative results, that Fateh won most of the seats in that city. In Rafah, we have selected 22 voting centers from a total of 30 centers (i.e., 73%) belonging to the voter register. But we have selected only 2 out of a total of 11 centers (i.e., 18%) of the civil register’s centers. PSR wishes to apologize for making this mistake in the selection of its sample. *

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* The decision by a Palestinian court to redo the election in all civil register centers in Rafah and the changes in the election out come that might follow does not necessarily change our conclusion that PSR committed an error in its Rafah sample selection.

Main Findings:

Profile of Hamas, Fateh and other Voters

Hamas received more votes in the Gaza Strip and among refugees, those with low and medium education, students, private sector employees, the young, the unmarried, and those with low income. Fateh received more votes in the West Bank and among non refugees, those with low and medium education, employees, public sector employees, older people, married, and middle income voters. Candidates belonging to other factions or independent lists received more support in the West Bank and among non refugees, those with higher education, professionals, employees, those working in the private sector, older people, unmarried, and middle and high income voters.

TABLE # 1: Voters’ Profile

Other Voters	Fateh Voters	Hamas Voters
West Bank	West Bank	Gaza Strip	Area
Non refugees	Non refugees	Refugees	Refugee Status
High	Low and Medium	Low and Medium	Education
Professionals and Employees	Employees	Students	Profession
Private	Public	Private	Work Sector
Older	Older	Young	Age
Unmarried	Married	Unmarried	Social Status
Middle and High	Middle	Low	Income

Most Serious Problem Facing Voters:

The first and most important problem, as defined by 35% of the voters, has been poverty and unemployment followed by corruption and lack of reform (29%), continuation of occupation and its daily practices (27%), and finally internal anarchy and chaos (7%). Findings show that Hamas’ voters place greater emphasis on corruption followed by unemployment and poverty, occupation, and finally internal anarchy and chaos. Fateh’s voters on the other hand see the occupation as the most important problem followed by unemployment and poverty, corruption, and finally anarchy and chaos.

TABLE # 2: Defining Problems Facing Voters (%)

	Total	Hamas’ voter	Fateh’s Voters	Voters of others
Unemployment and poverty	35	31	33	37
Corruption and lack of reform	29	38	22	29
Occupation	27	25	36	23
Internal anarchy and chaos	7	5	8	8
Others	1	1	1	3

Priorities of Voters

All voters consider fighting corruption and implementing reforms as the first priority (40%). The second priority is the improvement of economic conditions (38%) followed by reaching a peace agreement with Israel then the enforcement of law and order. While a consensus exists that fighting corruption is the top most important priority, Hamas’ voters give it added emphasis with 52% putting it on top compared to 35% for Fateh’s voters and 36% for voters of others. Reaching a peace agreement came third for all voters, but Hamas’ were the least concerned about it, with only 12% of Hamas’ voters giving it a third place compared to 25% for Fateh’s voters and 21% for the voters of others.

TABLE # 3: Voters First Priority (%)

	Total	Hamas’ voter	Fateh’s Voters	Voters of others
Improving Economic Conditions	28	25	29	26
Fighting corruption and implementing reforms	40	52	35	36
Reaching a peace agreement with Israel	20	12	25	21
Enforcing law and order	10	9	10	14

TABLE # 4: Voters Second Priority (%)

	Total	Hamas’ voter	Fateh’s Voters	Voters of others
Improving Economic Conditions	38	43	36	38
Fighting corruption and implementing reforms	27	25	29	28
Reaching a peace agreement with Israel	16	11	18	17
Enforcing law and order	17	19	16	15

Most Important Factor in Selecting Candidates

As in the first round of local elections, voters in the second round consider candidates’ integrity and incorruptibility as the most important factor with 72% selecting “uncorrupt” as “very important” in their decision to select their candidates. The second most important factor is the candidates’ level of education (64%), followed by their religiosity (50%) followed by candidates’ position on the peace process (38%), political affiliation (29%), family relationship (16%) and finally personal relationship (12%). Hamas’ voters put religiosity on top of their interests followed by integrity/incorruptibility, and education, while Fateh’s voters emphasize integrity/incorruptibility and education on top of the list. Voters of others emphasize integrity/incorruptibility. More than voters of Hamas and Fateh, voters of others show greater interest in family relationship while showing little interest in the political affiliation of the candidates. Compared to voters of Fateh and Hamas, religiosity plays a limited role in the considerations of the voters of others.

TABLE # 5: Most Important Factor in Selecting Candidates (%)

	Total	Hamas’ voter	Fateh’s Voters	Voters of others
Integrity and incorruptibility	72	75	68	74
Education	64	70	64	57
Religiosity	50	77	43	30
Position on the peace process	38	35	38	39
Political affiliation of candidate	29	38	41	16
Family relations	16	10	14	18
Personal relations	12	10	14	14

Voting Behavior, Political Affiliation of the Voters, and Voting Intentions in the Legislative Elections

Exit poll results show greater similarity (compared to exit poll results from the first round of local elections) between the actual voting behavior of the voters, their political sympathies, and their future voting intentions as declared by those voters. For example, table # 6 below shows that voters’ awareness of the political affiliation of the candidates they have voted for was very high (90% for Fateh’s voters and 85% for Hamas’). The table also shows that 75% of the voters of the others did not vote for Fateh or Hamas while only 16% voted for Fateh and 11% for Hamas.

TABLE # 6: To Whom Did You Vote? (%)

	Total	Hamas’ voter	Fateh’s Voters	Voters of others
Fateh	36	3	90	16
Hamas/Islamic Jihad	29	85	4	11
Left	4	0	1	16
Family	4	1	1	8
Independents	6	3	1	18
Others	14	4	2	24
DK/NA	6	4	2	7

With regard to general sympathy to factions and political parties, the poll found that 93% of Fateh’s voters and 81% of Hamas’ are supporters of Fateh and Hamas respectively. Table # 7 shows that 28% of the voters of others are in fact supporters of Fateh and 18% are supporters of Islamists (Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and independent Islamists). Similarly, the table shows that about one third of the voters of others (32%) consider themselves supporters of independent nationalists or no one.

TABLE # 7: Which Faction Do You Support? (%)

	Total	Hamas’ voter	Fateh’s Voters	Voters of others
Peoples’ Party	1	0	0	4
PFLP	3	0.3	1	14
Fateh	44	5	93	28
Hamas	28	81	3	8
DFLP	0.7	0.3	0	2
Islamic Jihad	2	0.5	0.3	7
Fida	0.1	0	0	0.3
Al Mobadara	0.7	0	0	2
Independent Islamists	3	4	0.5	3
Independent Nationalists	6	1	1.4	14
None/ DK/NA	12	8	1.1	18

With regard to voting intentions in the upcoming legislative elections, findings show once again a great deal of similarity between actual voting behavior and future intentions. This is particularly true to voters of Fateh (89%) and Hamas (81%). With regard to voters of others, around one quarter stated that they will vote for Fateh, 12% for Hamas and Islamic Jihad, 18% for the left and 17% for independents.

TABLE # 8: In the Legislative Elections, To Which List You Intend to Vote? (%)

	Total	Hamas’ voter	Fateh’s Voters	Voters of others
Hamas/Islamic Jihad	29	81	3	12
Fateh	40	3	89	24
Left	4	1	1	18
Independents	7	3	2	17
Others	8	2	2	16
DK/NA	12	10	4	13

The most important considerations in the legislative elections for all voters are the ability of the faction or election list to improve economic conditions and to enforce law and order. More than others, Hamas’ voters place greater emphasis on additional factors such as the ability to protect national unity, the ability to protect refugee rights, and the ability to insure the continuation of the intifada. Hamas’ voters paid little attention to the ability to reach a peace agreement. By contrast, Fateh’s voters indicate additional interest in the ability of the faction or list to reach a peace agreement and the political affiliation of the list or faction. Fateh’s voters show little interest in the ability of the list to insure the continuation of the intifada. In addition to their interest in the two issues of economic conditions and the enforcement of law and order, voters of others show interest in the ability of the faction or list to protect national unity while not showing much interest in insuring the continuation of the intifada or in the political affiliation of the list or faction they will vote for in the legislative elections.

TABLE # 9: Most Important Factor in Selecting a List in the Legislative Elections (%)

	Total			Hamas’ voter		Fateh’s Voters		Voters of others
	First		Second	First	Second	First	Second	First	Second
Ability to improve economic conditions	19	25		18	22	18	26	19	27
Ability to enforce law and order	20	19		17	20	19	20	25	18
Ability to reach a peace agreement	12	10		6	4	17	11	12	11
Ability to protect national unity	15	16		19	17	12	14	15	17
Ability to protect refugee rights	11	15		14	18	10	14	8	13
Ability to insure continuation of intifada	6	5		12	9	4	3	3	3
Political affiliation	14	7		15	9	19	9	14	7

Role of Perception of Corruption in the Elections’ Outcome

Findings show that voters’ perception of corruption was the most important factor in the voting choices as shown above in table # 5. Moreover, table # 10 below shows that 53% of the voters believe that corruption exists in their incumbent local councils while 92% believe that the newly elected councils will fight corruption. Similarly, findings show that only 16% evaluate the performance of the incumbent councils as very good while 61% believe the newly elected councils’ performance will be very good.

TABLE # 10: Role of Corruption and Mismanagement (%)

Incumbent Councils	Newly Elected Councils
Existence of Corruption:	Fighting Corruption in the Future:
53	92
Performance is Very Good:	Performance Will be Very Good:
16	61

Voters and the Peace Process and the Intifada

Findings show widespread support for an immediate return to Israeli-Palestinian negotiations among voters in the local elections in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with 73% supporting it and 25% opposing it. Support for the return to negotiations increases among Fateh’s supporters (85%) followed by voters of others (76%) and lastly Hamas’ voters (51%).

TABLE # 11: Voters’ Attitudes Regarding Immediate Return to Negotiations (%)

	Total	Hamas’ voter	Fateh’s Voters	Voters of others
Support	73	51	85	76
Oppose	25	46	13	21

With regard to who came out a winner in the current intifada, exit poll results show that the largest percentage (42%) believes that the Palestinians came out a winner while little over one third (35%) believes that both sides did not win. Most of Hamas’ voters (57%) tend to believe that Palestinians came out winners while the views of Fateh’s voters are closer to those of the total voting population (48%). With regard to the voters of the others, the largest percentage (42%) believes that neither side won while only 28% believe that Palestinians won and 21% believe that Israel came out a winner.

TABLE # 12: Who Came Out a Winner So Far in the Current Intifada?

	Total	Hamas’ voter	Fateh’s Voters	Voters of others
Israel	12	7	8	21
Palestinians	42	57	48	28
Both Sides Won	4	4	4	3
Neither side won	35	27	33	42
DK/NA	7	5	7	8

Results of PSR’s Local Elections’ Exit Poll – Round Two

West Bank and the Gaza Strip

5 May 2005

	Total%		West Bank %				Gaza Strip%
1) The following factors may or may not be important in your selection of the candidates. Tell us how important each is to you?
1-1) Family relation
1) Very important	15.8		18.6				12.5
2) Important	23.5		27.9				18.2
3) Unimportant	43.0		40.0				46.8
4) Unimportant at all	17.2		13.1				22.1
5) DK/NA	0.5		0.4				0.5
1-2) Uncorrupt, a person of integrity
1) Very important	72.2		72.3				72.2
2) Important	25.6		25.9				25.3
3) Unimportant	1.7		1.5				2.0
4) Unimportant at all	0.3		0.3				0.4
5) DK/NA	0.1		0.1				0.1
1-3) Position on the peace process
1) Very important	38.0		37.9				38.0
2) Important	46.4		44.3				48.9
3) Unimportant	12.3		14.0				10.2
4) Unimportant at all	1.8		2.4				1.1
5) DK/NA	1.6		1.4				1.8
1-4) Level of education
1) Very important	63.9		58.3				70.7
2) Important	29.3		33.6				25.3
3) Unimportant	5.6		7.2				3.7
4) Unimportant at all	0.6		0.8				0.4
5) DK/NA
1-5) Level of religiosity
1) Very important	50.7		40.5				63.0
2) Important	32.5		35.3				29.1
3) Unimportant	13.6		19.7				6.4
4) Unimportant at all	2.9		4.1				1.4
5) DK/NA	0.3		0.4				0.1
1-6) Political affiliation
1) Very important	28.7		24.8				33.5
2) Important	32.1		29.8				34.8
3) Unimportant	32.7		38.3				25.9
4) Unimportant at all	6.0		6.4				5.6
5) DK/NA	0.5		0.6				0.3
1-7) personal relations
1) Very important	12.3		13.9				10.3
2) Important	22.6		25.1				19.5
3) Unimportant	48.3		48.5				48.0
4) Unimportant at all	16.4		12.1				21.7
5) DK/NA	0.5		0.5				0.5
2) Do you believe the elections process has been
1) Certainly fair	29.5		27.5				32.0
2) Fair	60.7		61.1				60.3
3) Unfair	3.8		4.2				3.3
4) Certainly unfair	0.6		0.9				0.3
5) DK/NA	5.3		6.2				4.2
3) Now after you have voted in the elections for your local council, who do think are the most likely to win the majority of the seats, those who have been nominated by their families regardless of their political affiliation, or the candidates of Fateh, Hamas/Islamis Jihad, or the independents?
1) Fateh candidates	38.2		34.9				42.4
2) Hamas/Islamic Jihad candidates	31.6		25.6				39.0
3) leftest candidates (PFLP, DFLP, PPP, and al Mobadara-the Initiative )	3.0		4.7				1.0
4) ) family candidates	5.4		7.9				2.3
5) Independent candidates	5.5		8.6				1.7
6) Other candidates	4.9		6.5				3.1
7) DK/NA	11.3		11.9				10.6
4) And what about you, did you give your vote to candidates who are all or mostly from Fateh, Hamas/Islamic Jihad, independents, or those nominated by your family regardless of their political affiliation?
1) Fateh candidates	36.0		31.6				41.4
2) Hamas/Islamic Jihad candidates	29.3		21.5				38.8
3) leftest candidates (PFLP, DFLP, PPP, and al Mobadara-the Initiative )	3.6		5.0				1.8
4) ) family candidates	4.4		5.4				3.1
5) Independent candidates	6.4		10.6				1.4
6) Other candidates	14.0		17.9				9.2
7) DK/NA	6.4		8.0				4.4
5) How do you evaluate the performance of the appointed local council in your area during the pervious period?
1) very good	16.0		18.6				12.7
2) good	47.8		50.5				44.5
3) bad	19.9		16.6				23.8
4) very bad	13.6		11.5				16.1
5) DK/NA	2.9		2.8				2.9
6) And how do you expect the performance of the new elected council to be in the coming period?
1) Very good	60.7		56.4				66.1
2) Good	32.6		34.9				29.7
3) Bad	0.9		1.0				0.6
4) Very bad	0.2		0.3				0.1
5) DK/NA	5.6		7.4				3.4
7) In your view, was there corruption in the appointed local council in your area in the past? For example, did appointed members misuse their authority in order to make personal gains?
1) Certainly yes	18.9		16.1				22.3
2) Yes	33.9		32.1				36.1
3) No	31.8		34.2				29.0
4) Certainly no	3.0		3.3				2.7
5) DK/NA	12.3		14.3				9.9
8) And do you expect the council members you have elected today to fight this kind of corruption in the future?
1) Certainly yes		49.0		42.7			56.2
2) Yes		43.2		47.6			38.3
3) No		2.6		3.0			2.1
4) Certainly no		0.3		0.3			0.4
5) DK/NA		4.9		6.5			3.0
9) And what about the upcoming legislative elections, do you intend to participate in them?
1) yes		90.8		88.6				93.4
2) No		5.2		6.7				3.3
3) DK/NA		4.0		4.6				3.3
10) If you participate in the upcoming legislative elections and were asked to vote for electoral lists, which one of the following would you vote for?
1) Hamas’ and Islamic Jihad’s list		28.9	22.6		36.3
2) Fateh’s list		39.5	37.4		42.0
3) Leftist list (e.g., PFLP, DFLP, Mubadara, People’s Party, etc.)		4.3	5.8		2.5
4) Lists of independents		7.3	11.0		3.0
5) Other lists (specify ----- )		8.2	9.7		6.5
6) DK/NA		11.8	13.5		9.7
11) From among the following factors, which one will first to lead you to vote for one electoral list against another?
1) The political party to which the list belongs		13.8	16.4		10.9
2) The ability of the list to reach a peace agreement with Israel		11.7	9.5		14.2
3) The ability of the list to keep the intifada continuing		6.1	5.4		6.9
4) The ability of the list to improve economic conditions		19.1	17.0		21.6
5) The ability of the list to impose law and order		20.1	22.2		17.7
6) The ability of the list to maintain national unity		14.9	14.6		15.2
7) The ability of the list to protect the rights of the refugees in the negotiations with Israel		10.6	10.0		11.4
8) DK/NA		3.6	4.9		2.1
12) And which one will the second to lead you to vote for one electoral list against another?
1) The political party to which the list belongs		7.5	8.5					6.2
2) The ability of the list to reach a peace agreement with Israel		9.8	11.5					7.7
3) The ability of the list to keep the intifada continuing		5.0	4.8					5.3
4) The ability of the list to improve economic conditions		24.3	23.8					24.9
6) The ability of the list to maintain national unity		16.2	16.2					16.2
7) The ability of the list to protect the rights of the refugees in the negotiations with Israel		14.3	11.9					17.0
8) DK/NA		4.5	6.2					2.4
13) Do you support or oppose the immediate return to negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis?
1) Strongly support		20.4	20.1		20.8
2) Support		52.3	54.2		49.9
3) Oppose		18.7	16.6		21.3
4) strongly oppose		5.8	5.9		5.7
5) DK/NA		2.8	3.3		2.2
14) In your view, as of now, who came out a winner in the Palestinian-Israeli armed confrontations that started in September 2000?
1) Israel		12.1	17.7			5.4
2) Palestinians		42.1	27.2			60.1
3) Both		3.8	3.9			3.6
4) Neither		35.2	42.6			26.2
5) DK/NA		6.8	8.6			4.7
15) The following is a list of problems confronting the Palestinians today, tell us which one is the most important problem?
1) Spread of unemployment and poverty		35.7	36.0			35.3
2) The continuation of the occupation and its daily practices		27.0	26.8			27.2
3) Internal anarchy		7.1	7.4			6.7
4) The spread of corruption and lack of internal reforms		28.5	27.3			30.0
5) Others (specify--- )		1.0	1.5			0.4
6) DK/NA		0.8	1.1			0.5
16) And what should be the goal with the first priority for the PA today?
1) reaching a peace agreement with Israel		20.0	20.0			20.0
2) improving economic conditions and finding jobs for the unemployed		27.8	27.5			28.3
3) enforcing law and order		10.3	10.6			10.0
4) fighting corruption and implementing other political reforms		39.7	38.6			41.0
5) others (specify ------ )		1.2	1.8			0.4
6) DK/NA		1.0	1.6			0.4
17) And what should be the goal with the second priority for the PA today?
1) reaching a peace agreement with Israel		16.1	17.0						15.0
2) improving economic conditions and finding jobs for the unemployed		37.9	37.4						38.5
3) enforcing law and order		17.2	15.9						18.7
4) fighting corruption and implementing other political reforms		26.8	27.3						26.2