Survey Research Unit

11 September 2005

PRESS RELEASE

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll

On the eve of the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, 84% see it as victory for armed resistance and 40% give Hamas most of the credit for it; but 62% are opposed to continued attacks against Israelis from the Gaza Strip, 60% support collection of arms from armed groups in Gaza, Fateh’s electoral standing improved at Hamas’ expense (47% to 30%), optimism prevails over pessimism, and 73% support the establishment of a Palestinian state in the Gaza Strip that would gradually extend to the West Bank

7-9 September 2005

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between September 7-9, 2005. Total size of the sample is 1369 adults interviewed face to face in 120 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at Tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

(1) Prevailing Conditions on the Eve of Israeli Withdrawal from the Gaza Strip

· 84% see the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip as victory for Palestinian armed resistance and 40% give Hamas credit for it while 21% give the credit to the Palestinian Authority and 11% give it to Fateh. Nonetheless, 62% oppose and 35% support continued attacks against Israel from the Gaza Strip and 60% support and 37% oppose collection of arms from armed factions in Gaza after a full Israeli withdrawal from the Strip. Moreover, 77% support and 22% oppose the current ceasefire.

· Almost three quarters (73%) support and 25% oppose the establishment of a Palestinian state with the 1967 lines as its borders that would start first in the Gaza Strip and gradually extend to the West Bank.

· Expectations of the future after the Israeli withdrawal are mixed. Optimism prevails, particularly in the Gaza Strip, in the following areas: better economic conditions (64%), progress in the peace process (57%), link between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip (57%), viewing the Israeli withdrawal as the end of occupation and the start of independent Palestinian statehood (56%), and believing that further Israeli withdrawals will take place from West Bank settlements in the future (60%). But pessimism remains, particularly in the West Bank, with regard to continued Israeli control over the Rafah crossing thereby making the Gaza Strip a big prison (57%) and the expectation that internal infighting will follow the Israeli withdrawal (60%). It should be noted that the poll was conducted during the period in which Musa Arafat, security advisor to PA president, was assassinated in the Gaza Strip.

· In case rockets continue to target Israeli towns from the Gaza Strip, 86% of the Palestinians believe that Israel would most likely carry out a major operation against the Strip or reoccupy it again.

· 56% oppose and 37% support the suicide attack that took place in Beer Sheva around the end of August.

(2) Voting Intentions and Considerations in the Upcoming Legislative Elections

· Findings show that 74% of the Palestinians will participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections in January 2006. Voting intentions among the likely participants indicate an increase of Fateh’s support from 44% last June to 47% in this poll and a drop in Hamas’ support from 33% to 30% during the same period. 11% will vote for other factions and groups and 11% remain undecided.

· From among eight vital considerations in voting for election lists, # (1) is the ability to fight corruption receiving 24%, # (2) the name or affiliation of the list with 19%, # (3) ability to improve economic conditions with 15%, # (4) ability to reach a peace agreement with Israel with 14%, # (5) ability to maintain national unity with 10%, # (6) ability to enforce law and order with 8%, # (7) ability to protect refugee rights in negotiations with 6%, and finally # (8) ability to insure the continuation of the intifada with 4%.

· Hamas is the most able to fight corruption (receiving 46% vs. 37% to Fateh) and to insure the continuation of the intifada (receiving 62% vs. 24% to Fateh). Fateh is perceived as the most able to improve the economy (receiving 46% vs. 31% for Hamas), to push the peace process forward (receiving 64% for Fateh vs. 21% for Hamas), to protect national unity (receiving 44% vs. 37% for Hamas), to enforce law and order (receiving 54% vs. 31% for Hamas) and to protect refugee rights (receiving 44% for Fateh and 37% for Hamas).

· Poverty/unemployment is the most serious problem confronting Palestinians today in the eyes of 40% of the public, followed by Israeli occupation measures (25%), corruption (25%), and finally internal anarchy and chaos (8%).

· In a closed question, in a contest for the office of PA president between Mahmud Abbas (Fateh), Mahmud Zahhar (Hamas), and Mustafa Barghouti (others), Abbas comes first with 44% followed by Zahhar with 21% and Barghouti with 19%. In a closed question, in a contest over the office of vice president, Marwan Barghouti receives the greatest level of support with 24% followed by Mahmud Zahhar with 14%, Ismail Haniyyah with 13%, Mohammad Dahlan and Mustafa Barghouti with 9% each, Farouq Qaddoumi with 8%, and finally Ahmad Qurai and Saeb Erikat with 6% each. In a closed question, in a contest over the office of prime minister, Marwan Barghouti comes first with 30% followed by Zahhar with 22%, Mustafa Barghouti with 17%, and Qurai and Dahlan with 8% each.

· Public satisfaction with the performance of PA president Mahmud Abbas increases from 60% last June to 64% in this poll.

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This PSR survey was conducted with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Ramallah.