PSR - Survey Research Unit: Special Public Opinion Poll on the Upcoming Palestinian Elections
01 January 2006

1 January 2006

 

Press Release

Special Public Opinion Poll on the Upcoming Palestinian Elections

 

Before the Start of the Election Campaign, and About One Month Before the Elections, a PSR Pre Election Poll Shows Fateh List Winning at the National Level While Showing a Tie Between Candidates of Fateh and Change and Reform in the Electoral Districts

29-31 December 2005

 

The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research conducted a pre election poll during the period between 29-31 December 2005 in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. The poll aimed at predicting the likely outcome of the legislative elections scheduled for 25 January 2006. The poll was conducted among 4560 potential voters (of which 3000 came from the West Bank and 1560 from the Gaza Strip) in 228 randomly selected population locations (of which 78 came from the Gaza Strip and 150 from the West Bank). The sample was distributed over 16 electoral districts in order to allow the prediction of the likely outcome at the electoral district level. The sample was then re-weighted to reflect the size of each electoral district in the total voter register in order to allow the prediction of the outcome at the national level. Margin of error for the lists at the national level is 2%; at the electoral district level, the margin of error ranges between 4% to 7%.

 

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki or Walid Ladadweh at 02-296 4933 or email: pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

 

(1) Results of Lists at the National Level

  • 43% will vote for Fateh List while 25% will vote for the List of Change and Reform, and 19% remain undecided. List of Independent Palestine (headed by Mustafa Barghouti) receives 5%, and List of Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa receives 3%. It is also expected that the List of the Alternative (headed by Qais Abdul Karim) and the List of the Third Way (headed by Salam Fayyad) will pass the 2% threshold. All other lists are not expected to pass the 2% threshold.

 

(2) Results for Candidates in the Electoral Districts

  • Fateh’s candidates are strong in the following six electoral districts: Jerusalem, Jericho, Toubas, Salfit, Qalqilia, and Rafah.
  • Change and Reform’s candidates are strong in the following three districts: Gaza City, Deir al Balah, and Northern Gaza
  • The contest is close in the following seven districts: Nablus, Bethlehem, Jenin, Hebron, Tulkarm, Ramallah, and Khanyounis.
  • The following candidates have a good chance of winning in their districts:

 

No

District

Candidates with a good chance of winning

1

Nabuls

Hamid Beitawi, Mahmud Aloul, Ghassan Shaka’a, Ahmad Haj Ali

2

Jericho

Saeb Erikat

3

Hebron

Jamal Shoubaki, Nayif Rojoub, Nabil Amr, Samir Qadi, Jibril Rojoub

4

Bethlehem

Bshara Daud, Khalid Tafish

5

Toubas

Bassam Daraghmaeh

6

Salfit

Bilal Azrael (or Ahmad Deek)

7

Jenin

Azzam al Ahmad, Fakhri Turkoman

8

Tulkarm

Hasan Khraisheh

9

Jerusalem

Hatim Abdul Qadir

10

Ramallah

Qaddoura Faris, Abdul Fattah Hamail, Hasan Yousif, Fadl Salih

11

Qalqilia

Ahmad Hazza’, Walid Assaf

12

Gaza City

Said Siam, Faraj al Ghoul, Ahmad Bahar, Khalil Abu Usama, Jamal Nassar

13

Dier al Balah

Abdul Rahman al Jamal, Salim Salama, Ahmad Abu Ali

14

Rafah

Mohammad Hijazi, Radwan al Akhras, Ashraf Joum’a

15

Khanyounis

Mohammad Dahlan, Younis al Astal

16

Northern Gaza

Mushir al Masri, Kamal Sharafi, Yousif al Sharafi

      

  • This list has 40 names of candidates only from a total of 66 eligible winners. At this time, it is difficult to predict the winning chances of the remaining 26 eligible winners as the results are too close to allow such prediction.
  • Party affiliation of the likely 40 winning candidates is as follows: 19 (or 48%) from the List of Change and Reform, 18 (or 45%) from Fateh List, and 3 (or 7%) are independents.

 

 

* This pre election poll was conducted with support from the Japanese Government

 

[ PSR Home ] [ Index of Polls ]