PSR - Survey Research Unit: Comparing PSR Exit Poll Results with the Official Election Results
National Results of Lists

 

RESULTS OF PSR’S LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS’ EXIT POLL

 

Comparing PSR Exit Poll Results with the Official Election Results

 

The following tables compares the results of PSR’s exit poll conducted on 25 January 2006 with the official results as announced by the Central Election Commission. At the national level, PSR results of the electoral lists were identical or almost identical with those of the official results with the notable exception of Hamas (Change and Reform) in which PSR results were considerably different. PSR predicted that Hamas would win only 35% of the votes (or 23 seats). But official results indicated that Hamas won 44% of the popular vote (or 29 seats).

 

The gap between our prediction and the actual results for Hamas was multiplied at the district level, where small differences matter considerably in determining winners and losers. PSR predicted that with the exception of Hamas’ and Fateh’ candidates, none of the candidates of the other lists would win. This prediction proved accurate. PSR also predicted that four independent candidates (three in the Gaza Strip and one in Tulkarm) would win and indeed the official results confirmed that the four candidates in question did indeed win. However, our predictions were wrong with regard to the number of seats Fateh and Hamas would win. We predicted that Fateh would win 30 seats while it won only 17. We also predicted that Hamas would win 29 seats when in fact it won 45.

 

Margin of error for the lists at the national level was 4%. For the districts, it ranged between 5% and 7% depending on the number of candidates in each district. Margin of error however does not explain PSR’s failure to accurately predict the outcome of the elections. We do not believe that our methodology was responsible for this failure since it is the same method we have used to accurately predict the outcome of the presidential elections in January 2005 and the local elections in the cities of Nablus, Jenin, Ramallah, and al Bireh in December 2005. In those elections our exit poll results were identical or almost identical with the official results.

 

We are confident that our error was the result of deliberate incitement carried out by Hamas activists against pollsters during the election campaign and on the day of election including efforts to discourage voters from talking to fieldworkers in the scene. This incitement led to the refusal of 3650 voters to be interviewed. Reports of fieldworkers indicate that the overwhelming majority of those refusing to be interviewed were supporters of Hamas. Most cases of rejection were reported by the fieldworkers in the districts of Hebron (460 cases), Northern Gaza (450 cases), Jerusalem (350 cases), Nablus (340 cases), and Jenin (300 cases). In previous exit polls, the rejection rate was much smaller with few hundred people refusing to be interviewed. This was the expected rate this time as well.  When our results were announced, PSR researchers were unaware of the dramatic increase in the rejection rate and therefore no allowance was made for such a development.

 

Comparison between the Official Results and the Results of PSR’s Exit Poll ( for all Lists, at the National Level, by Percentage of Votes and Number of Seats, of a total of 66 seats)

List #

List Name

Percentage of votes (%) in PSR’s Exit poll*

Percentage of votes (%) in the official results**

Number of seats  in PSR’s Exit poll

Number of seats in the Official Results

1

The Alternative (DFLP, People’s Party, Fida, and Independents)

4

2.9

2-3

2

2

Independent Palestine (Mustafa Barghouti and Independents)

3

2.7

2

2

3

Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa (PFLP)

5

4.2

3

3

4

Martyr Abu Al-Abbas

1

Less than 1

-

-

5

Freedom and Social Justice

1

Less than 1

-

-

6

Change and Reform (Hamas)

35

44

23

29

7

National Coalition for Justice and Democracy

1

Less than 1

-

-

8

Third Way

3

2.4

2

2

9

Freedom and Independence

1

Less than 1

-

-

10

Palestinian Justice

1

Less than 1

-

-

11

Fateh

42

41

28

28

* Percentage of void and blank ballots: 5%                                    ** Percentage of void and blank ballots: 5%

 

Comparison between the Official Results and the Results of PSR’s Exit Poll ( for all Winning Candidates, along with their Political Affiliation,  by District, of a total of 66 seats)

District #

Name of District (and number of seats)

Winning Names and Affiliations in PSR Exit Poll

Winners’ Names and Affiliation in the Official Results

1

Jerusalem

(6 seats)

Hatim Abdul Qadir (Fateh)

Ibrahim Abu Salem (Change and Reform)

Undecided

Mohammad Totah (Change and Reform)

Undecided

Wa’el Abdul Rahman (Change and Reform)

Undecided

Ahmad Atwan (Change and Reform)

Undecided

Avivian Sabila (Fateh) Christian Quota

Undecided

Emile Jarjou’i (Fateh) Christian Quota

2

Jenin

(4 seats)

Azzam Ahmad (Fateh)

Azzam Ahmad (Fateh)

Shami Shami (Fateh)

Shami Shami (Fateh)

Khalild Abu Hammam (Change and Reform)

Khaled Abu Hammam (Change and Reform)

Hussain Rabaia (Fateh)

Khaled Suleiman Fayez Abu Hasan (Change and Reform)

3

Tulkarm

(3 seats)

Hasan Khraishah

Hasan Khreisheh

Ibrahim Khraishah (Fateh)

Abdul Rahman Zeidan (Change and Reform)

Adnan Damiri (Fateh)

Riyad Raddad (Change and Reform)

4

Tubas

(1 seat)

Bassam Daraghmah (Fateh)

Khaled Abu Tous (Change and Reform)

5

Nablus

(6 seats)

Mahmud Alul (Fateh)

Mahmoud Alul (Fateh)

Hamid Baitawi (Change and Reform)

Hamed Bitawi (Change and Reform)

Sarhan Duwaikat (Fateh)

Ahmad Ali Ahmad (Change and Reform)

Ghassan Shaka’ah (Fateh)

Riyad Amli (Change and Reform)

Ahmad Adili (Fateh)

Hasan Borini Yassin (Change and Reform)

Issam Abu Bakr (Fateh)

Dawod Abu Sir (Change and Reform)

6

Qalqilia

(2 seats)

Walid Assaf (Fateh)

Walid Assaf (Fateh)

Ahmad Shraim (Fateh)

Ahmad Shraim (Fateh)

7

Salfit

(1 seat)

Bilal Azreil (Fateh)

Nasser Abul Jawad (Change and Reform)

8

Ramallah and al Bireh

(5 seats)

Hasan Yousif (Change and Reform)

Hassan Yousef (Change and Reform)

Fadl Salih (Change and Reform)

Fadle Saleh (Change and Reform)

Ahmad Salih Mubarak (Change and Reform)

Ahamad Salih Mubarak (Change and Reform)

Muhaib Salamah (Fateh)

Muheib Salameh (Fateh)

Mahmud Muslih (Change and Reform)

Mahmoud Muslih (Change and Reform)

9

Jericho

(1 seat)

Saeb Erekat (Fateh)

Saeb Erekat (Fateh)

10

Bethlehem

(4 seats)

Khalid Tafish (Change and Reform)

Khalid Tafish (Change and Reform)

Fuad Kukali (Fateh)

Fuad Kukali (Fateh) Christian Quota

Fayez Saqqa (Fateh)

Fayez Saqqa (Fateh) Christian Quota

Majid Faraj (Fateh)

Mahmud al Khatib (Change and Reform)

11

Hebron

(9 seats)

Nayif Rojoub (Change and Reform)

Nayef Rojoub (Change and Reform)

Aziz Duwaik (Change and Reform)

Aziz Duwaik (Change and Reform)

Samir al Qadi (Change and Reform)

Samir al Qadi (Change and Reform)

Azzam Salhab (Change and Reform)

Azzam Salhab (Change and Reform)

Mohammad Abu Jehaishah (Change and Reform)

Mohammad Abu Jehaishah (Change and Reform)

Nizar Ramadan (Change and Reform)

Nizar Ramadan (Change and Reform)

Undecided

Basem Za’areer (Change and Reform)

Undecided

Hatem Rabah Qfaisheh (Change and Reform)

Undecided

Mohammad Ismael al Tell (Change and Reform)

12

Northern Gaza

(5 seats)

Yousif Sharafi (Change and Reform)

Yousif Sharafi (Change and Reform)

Musheir al Masri (Change and Reform)

Mushir al Masri (Change and Reform)

Hisham Abdul Raziq (Fateh)

Atef Mohammad Odwan (Change and Reform)

Taysir Abu Audeh (Fateh)

Mohammad Shihab (Change and Reform)

Jabr al Daour  (Fateh)

Ismael al Ashqar (Change and Reform)

13

Gaza

(8 seats)

Said Siam (Change and Reform)

Said Siam (Change and Reform)

Ahmad Bahr (Change and Reform)

Ahmad Bahar (Change and Reform)

Mohammad al Ghoul (Change and Reform)

Mophamad al Ghoul (Change and Reform)

Khalil al Hayyeh (Change and Reform)

Khalil Hayyeh (Change and Reform)

Jamal Salih (Change and Reform)

Jamal Salih (Change and Reform)

Ziad Abu Amr (Independent)

Ziad Abu Amr (Independent)

Husam Tawil (Independent) (Christian Quota)

Husam Tawil (Independent)

Jamal Khudari (Independent)

Jamal Khudari (Independent)

14

Deir al Balah

(3 seats)

Abdul Al Rahman Jamal (Change and Reform)

Abdul Rahman Jamal (Change and Reform)

Salim Salamah (Change and Reform)

Salem Salameh (Change and Reform)

Ahmad Ibn Said (Change and Reform)

Ahmad Hasan Abu Houli (Fateh)

15

Khanyounis

(5 seats)

Mohammad Dahlan (Fateh)

Mohammad Dahlan (Fateh)

Sufian al Agha (Fateh)

Sufian al Agha (Fateh)

Ibrahim Abu al Naja (Fateh)

Younis al Astal (Change and Reform)

Sulaiman Abu Mutlaq (Fateh)

Khamis al Najjar (Change and Reform)

Walid Mukhaimar (Fateh)

Salah al Bardawil (Change and Reform)

16

Rafah

(3 seats)

Mohammad Hijazi (Fateh)

Mohammad Hijazi (Fateh)

Radwan Akhras (Fateh)

Radwan Akhras (Fateh)

Ashraf Juma (Fateh)

Ashraf Jom’a (Fateh)

 

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