PSR - Survey Research Unit: Public Opinion Poll # 28

 

PSR poll 27 full analysis

12 June 2008

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (28)

With Abbas Regaining Some of his Popularity and Hamas losing some of its popularity, and despite widespread support for a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, an overwhelming majority of Palestinians opposes a ceasefire that does not include the West Bank or does not stipulate an immediate opening of the Rafah crossing to Egypt

 

5-7 June 2008   

 

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 5 and 7 June 2008. This period witnessed the declaration by the President of the Palestinian Authority (PA) Mahmud Abbas of his desire to renew dialogue with Hamas. It also witnessed continued closure of the Rafah border crossing despite Hamas’s attempt to open it. Indirect negotiations between Hamas and Israel on a ceasefire failed to produce agreement while the threat of a possible Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip escalated further. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%. This press release covers domestic Palestinian issues; issues related to the peace process and Israeli-Palestinian relations will be covered in a separate joint Palestinian-Israeli press release. For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

 

Table of contents:

 

1) Domestic Palestinian Conditions

2) Ceasefire, the One-State Solution, and the Peace Process

3)Conflict in Lebanon between Hezbollah and the Future trend

4)Main Findings in numbers

 

 Main Findings:

Findings indicate a limited decline in the various indicators of Hamas’s power in the second quarter of 2008 compared to the first quarter of the year. Decline can be seen in the popularity of the movement, the popularity of its prime minister Ismail Haniyeh, and in the percentage of those who describe Haniyeh’s government as legitimate.  By contrast, Mahmud Abbas’s popularity and the positive evaluation of his performance increase compared to his standing in the first quarter of this year. Moreover, positive evaluation of conditions in the West Bank increases as feelings of safety and security improve. A majority believes that the recently deployed Palestinian security forces have succeeded in enforcing law and order in the areas of their deployment in the West Bank; this is particularly true in the Nablus and Jenin areas. As expected, the largest percentage believes that Abbas is more able than Hamas’s government in reaching a peace agreement with Israel. But surprisingly, the largest percentage believes that Abbas is also more able than Hamas’s government in forcing Israel to make more concessions to the Palestinians.

The changes in the second quarter of 2008 might have been the result of two developments: Abbas has taken the initiative away from Hamas when he gave the green light for a resumption of dialogue with Hamas and Hamas has failed in moving forward any of the issues it championed during this period. These issues included the opening of the Rafah border crossing and forcing Israel to agree to a ceasefire with the Islamist group. In the first quarter of this year, Abbas and his government, headed by Salam Fayyad, were seen by the public as impotent in confronting Israel’s policies such as settlement construction and the increased restrictions on movement. By contrast, Hamas was seen as successful in breaking the siege on Gaza and in retaliating against Israel by carrying out two major armed attacks inside Israel, such as the suicide attack in Dimona and the attack at Merkaz Harav religious school in West Jerusalem. The measures taken by Hamas in the first quarter of 2008 managed to present the Islamist group as successful in confronting Israel at a time when Abbas and his government were seen as lacking the initiative.

Findings also indicate that an overwhelming majority of Palestinians supports a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel. But this support disappears if the agreement is to be restricted to the Gaza Strip and does not include the West Bank or if it does not stipulate the immediate opening of the Rafah crossing to Egypt. Findings also show stability in the Palestinian position regarding a permanent settlement along the lines of the Clinton Parameters or the Geneva Initiative with a minority support of less than half of the public. Finally, findings indicate that the idea that says that the two state solution is becoming difficult to achieve and that it is better for the Palestinians to embrace a one state solution where Palestinians and Jews would be equal is unacceptable to the majority of the Palestinians; indeed, only a little more than a quarter support it while the majority continues to support the two-state solution.

 

1) Domestic Palestinian Conditions

  • Standing of Abbas improves as the gap between him and Ismail Haniyeh widens from almost zero to 12 percentage points during the past three months.
  • Satisfaction with the performance of Abbas increases from 41% last March to 46% in this poll; moreover, positive evaluation of the performance of Salam Fayyad increases from 30% to 33%, and positive evaluation of the performance of Haniyeh decreases from 39% to 37% during the same period. Belief that Fayyad’s government is the legitimate one rises slightly to 31% and belief that Haniyeh’s government is the legitimate one diminishes slightly to 29%.
  • Hamas’s popularity decreases from 35% last March to 31% in this poll; Fateh’s popularity remains stable standing today at 43% compared to 42% last March.
  •  Perception of safety and security improves in the West Bank during the past three months rising from 32% to 40%; 57% say that the deployment of Palestinian security forces in the West Bank has been successful in helping to enforce law and order.
  • Positive evaluation of democracy in the West Bank is higher than in the Gaza Strip: 33% to 23%.
  • 59% believe that the PA handling of the case of the smuggling of mobile phones in the car of the former PLC Speaker was a cover for corruption while only 28% believe it was a case of fighting corruption.
  • A larger percentage believes that Abbas is more able than Hamas’s government to reach a peace agreement with Israel and to force Israel to make more concessions to the Palestinians.

 

The Gap between the standing of PA President Mahmud Abbas and Hamas’s Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh has increased to 12 percentage points in favor of Abbas. If new presidential elections are held today, and the only two candidates were Abbas and Haniyeh, the former would receive the support of 52% and the latter 40%. This finding represents an increase in the popularity of Abbas which stood at 46% last March compared to 47% for Haniyeh. If the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Haniyeh, the former would receive 61% to Haniyeh’s 34%. Level of non-participation in the presidential elections would reach 39% if the competition was between Abbas and Haniyeh and 27% if the competition was between Barghouti and Haniyeh. Satisfaction with the performance of Abbas reaches 46% in this poll (compared to 41% last March). Moreover, 33% (compared to 30% last March) say the performance of Fayyad’s government is good or very good and 38% say it is bad or very bad. By comparison, 37% (compared to 39% last March) say the performance of Haniyeh’s government is good or very good and 35% say it is bad or very bad.

Findings indicate that 45% (compared to 49% last March) believe that Haniyeh should stay in office as prime minister while 47% say he should not. By contrast, 42% (compared to 38% last March) say Fayyad’s government should stay in office and 51% say it should not.  29% say Haniyeh’s government is the legitimate Palestinian government and 31% say Fayyad’s government is the legitimate one; 7% say both governments are legitimate and 28% say both are illegitimate. Three months ago, 34% said Haniyeh’s government was legitimate while 29% said Fayyad’s was legitimate.

Moreover, the gap between Fateh and Hamas increases from 7 percentage points last March to 12 percentage points in this poll. If new parliamentary elections are to take place today, Hamas would receive 31% (compared to 35% last March) and Fateh would received 43% (compared to 42% last March).

Perception of personal and family security and safety increases in the West Bank from 32% last March to 40% in this poll. But the percentage of personal and family security and safety in the Gaza Strip is higher than in the West Bank as it reaches 49% (compared to 46% in Gaza last March). In this regard, 57% say that the deployment of the Palestinian security forces in some cities and towns in the West Bank has succeeded or somewhat succeeded in enforcing law and order while 34% say the deployment has failed to do that. Belief in the success of the security deployment is greatest in the areas of Nablus and Jenin (87% and 81% respectively) followed by Tulkarm (77%), Qalqilia (65%), Ramallah (59%), Bethlehem (57%), Hebron (50%), and Jerusalem (47%). When asked about their perceptions regarding the true purpose of the deployment, 35% said the purpose was to enforce law and order, 28% said it was to disarm the resistance forces, and 23% said it was both, the enforcement of law and order and the disarming of the resistance forces.

While only 23% give a positive evaluation of the status of democracy in the Gaza Strip under the Hamas government, the percentage for the West Bank under Fayyad’s government is higher (33%). Moreover, while only 5% describe the overall conditions of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip as good or very good, the percentage for the overall conditions in the West Bank is higher (25%). A majority of 77% believes that corruption exists in PA institutions that are under the control of PA president and his government and only 14% believe there is no corruption in PA institutions. Among those who believe corruption exists in the PA, 60% believe this corruption will increase or remain the same in the future.  Moreover, a majority of 59% describes PA handling of the case of the smuggling of mobile phones in the car of the former PLC Speaker of the Palestinian parliament as a cover for corruption while only 28% describe it as an example of fighting corruption.

About half of the Palestinians (49%) say that the PA under Mahmud Abbas is more able than Hamas’s government under Ismail Haniyeh to reach a peace agreement with Israel while only 15% say the Hamas government is more able to do so. Moreover, 41% believe that the PA under Abbas is more able than Hamas’s government to force Israel to make more concessions to the Palestinians while only 25% believe Hamas’s government is more able to do so. Even if the choice was between Abbas and Marwan Barghouti, Abbas comes on top with 31% while only 28% believe Barghouti would be more able than Abbas to force Israel to make more concessions to the Palestinians. Belief that Abbas is more able than Hamas to force Israel to make concessions can be seen both in the West Bank (40% to 24%) and the Gaza Strip (44% to 27%), but is more evident among women (45% to 23%) compared to men (37% to 27%), among supporters of the peace process (48% to 22%) compared to those opposed to the peace process (19% to 40%), among illiterates (48% to 18%) compared to those who hold a BA degree (31% to 27%), among those who intend to vote for Fateh’s list (64% to 11%) compared to those who intend to vote for Hamas’s list (31% to 53%). 

 

2) Ceasefire, the One-State Solution, and the Peace Process

  • An overwhelming majority supports a ceasefire with Israel, but a similar majority opposes the ceasefire if it does not include the West Bank or does not stipulate the immediate opening of the Rafah crossing to Egypt.
  • In a comparison between the one-state solution and the two-state solution, 58% prefer the two-state solution and 27% prefer the one-state solution.
  • Stability in the position of Palestinians regarding a permanent settlement along the lines of the Clinton Parameters and the Geneva Initiative; 46% support it and 52% oppose it.
  • 56% support and 43% oppose mutual recognition of Israel and the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people after reaching a permanent settlement.
  • 67% support and 28% oppose the Saudi peace initiative.
  • 50% support the Roadmap and 47% oppose it.
  • An overwhelming majority prefers a permanent settlement and only 15% prefers an interim one.
  • 66% believe that the chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state during the next five years are either low or non existent.
  • 76% believe that the negotiations launched by the Annapolis conference will fail.
  • 68% believe that Olmert-Abbas meetings are not useful and should be stopped while only 27% believe they are useful and should continue.
  • Support for armed attacks against Israelis drops from 67% to 55% during three months;  similarly, support for launching rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip drops from 64% to 57% during the same period.
  • Two thirds believe that success in the Syrian-Israeli track will not have a negative impact on the Palestinian-Israeli track.

Findings show that 78% support and 21% oppose a ceasefire agreement with Israel. But support decreases sharply to 23% if the agreement is to be restricted to the Gaza Strip and exclude the West Bank. Moreover, support drops further to 20% if the agreement does not include the immediate opening of the Gaza Crossings, especially the Rafah crossing to Egypt. Opposition to a ceasefire agreement that does not include the West Bank is high both in the Gaza Strip (78%) and the West Bank (74%). The same is true if the agreement does not stipulate the opening of the crossings, reaching 80% in the Gaza Strip and 78% in the West Bank.

Findings indicate that 38% believe that a one-state solution (one based on the establishment of a unified state that includes Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip whereby Palestinian Arabs enjoy equal rights as Israeli Jews) is more difficult to achieve than a two-state solution (one in which a Palestinian state is established next to the state of Israel). But a similar percentage (36%) believes the two-state solution is more difficult to achieve, and 25% believe that the two solutions are equally difficult to achieve. Regardless of its difficulty, 58% say they prefer the two-state solution while only 27% prefer the one state solution. 10% prefer other solutions. Support for the two state solution compared to the one state solution increases in the West Bank (58% to 25%) compared to the Gaza Strip (56% to 31%), in rural areas (61% to 23%) compared to cities (57% to 28%) and refugee camps (50% to 36%), among supporters of the peace process (63% to 26%), compared to those opposed to the peace process (40% to 32%), among the illiterates (65% to 21%) compared to holders of BA degree (52% to 25%), among those who are certainly willing to buy a lottery ticket (75% to 17%) compared to those who are certainly unwilling to buy a lottery ticket ( 49% to 25%), among refugees (58% to 25%) compared to non-refugees (58% to 28%), and among those who intend to vote for Fateh’s list (68% to 25%) compared to those who intend to vote for Hamas’s list (46% to 30%).

Support for a permanent settlement along the Clinton Parameters and the Geneva Initiative remains stable with a minority support of 46% and 52% opposition. A majority of 63% supports the article on borders and territorial exchange and a majority of 56% supports the article on end of conflict. Only a minority supports all other articles: 28% support a state without an army, 38% support the Jerusalem compromise, 41% support the refugee compromise, and 38% support the security measures. Findings also indicate that 56% support and 43% oppose a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people after the two sides reach an agreement on all other issues of permanent settlement including Jerusalem and refugees. Moreover, 73% would support and 26% would oppose reconciliation between the two peoples after reaching a peace agreement. 67% support and 28% oppose the Saudi initiative which calls for Arab recognition of Israel and normalization of relations with it after its withdrawal from all occupied Arab territories and the establishment of a Palestinian state. Support for the Roadmap reaches 50% and opposition 47%. Findings indicate that the overwhelming majority (81%) prefers a comprehensive and permanent settlement that ends the conflict while only 15% prefer an interim settlement that leads to the establishment of a Palestinian state but postpone other issues such as refugees.

Findings show a pessimistic outlook dominating Palestinian expectations regarding the peace process. 66% believe that chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state in the next five years are low or non existent and only 30% believe the chances are medium or high. Moreover, 76% believe that the negotiations launched by the Annapolis Conference will fail and only 16% believe they will succeed. 75% believe that it is impossible these days to reach a permanent settlement with the current Olmert government while only 22% believe it is possible to reach an agreement with it. These percentages are similar to those we found during the past six months. For all of this, 68% believe that meetings between Abbas and Olmert are not useful and should be stopped while only 27% believe they are useful and should continue.

Support for armed attacks against Israeli civilians inside Israel drops from 67% last March to 55% in this poll. Moreover, support for launching rockets from the Gaza Strip against Israeli towns and cities such as Sderot and Ashkelon has dropped from 64% last march to 57% in this poll.

Finally, 32% believe that serious progress in Syrian-Israeli peace talks or reaching a peace agreement will contribute positively to Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, but 26% believe that such development would constitute an impediment in Palestinian-Israeli negotiations and 35% believe such progress will have no impact.

 

3) Conflict in Lebanon between Hezbollah and the Future trend

  • 52% describe Hezbollah’s temporary armed control of West Beirut as legitimate and 36% describe it as illegitimate.
  • Half of the public expects the eruption of civil war in Lebanon between the Sunnites and the Shiites in the aftermath of Hezbollah’s control over West Beirut.
  • If civil war does erupt, 37% expect the Shiites to win and 18% expect he Sunnites to win.
  • If such civil war erupts, 34% say they will support the Sunnites under the leadership of the Future trend and 21% say they will support the Shiites under the leadership of the Shiites and Hezbollah; 35% say they will support neither side.

 

Findings show that a majority of 52% view Hezbollah’s armed control over West Beirut in August as legitimate and 36% view it as illegitimate. Despite the fact that the Lebanese parties have reached an agreement in Doha to settle their differences, 45% of the Palestinians expect a return to civil war in Lebanon, this time between Sunnites and Shiites as a result of the Hezbollah behavior and the conflict between Hezbollah and the Future trend while 44% do not expect that. If civil war between Sunnites and Shiites erupts in Lebanon, 37% expect the Shiites under the leadership of Hezbollah and Amal movement to win it, 18% expect the Sunnites under the leadership of the Future trend to win it, 29% expect neither side to win it, and 16% do not know who would win it. As to which side they will support if civil war erupts, 34% say they will support the Sunnites under the leadership of the Future trend, 21% say they will support the Shiites under the leadership of Hezbollah and Amal movement, and 35% say they will support neither side. Support for Sunnites vs. Shiites increases in the Gaza Strip (45% to 14%) compared to the West Bank (28% to 26%), in refugee camps (43% to 14%) compared to cities (36% to 19%) and rural areas (29% to 26%), among supporters of the peace process (36% to 22%) compared to those opposed to the peace process (32% to 23%), among those who describe themselves as religious (37% to 20%) compared to those who describe themselves as somewhat religious (33% to 22%), among holders of BA degree (37% to 17%), compared to illiterates (20% to 32%), among those working in the public sector (44% to 15%), compared to those working in the private sector (33% to 23%), among those who certainly refuse to buy a lottery ticket (38% to 17%) compared to those who certainly accept to buy a lottery ticket (33% to 29%), among refugees (36% to 17%) compared to non refugees (33% to 24%), and among supporters of Fateh (44% to 18%) compared to supporters of Hamas (37% to 26%). 

 

 PSR Poll No. 28

5-7 June 2008   

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

00 )

From among the following satellite news stations, which one you watched most during the last two months?

 

1) Al Arabia

8.6

7.2

11.1

 

2) Al Jazeera

54.8

61.1

43.9

 

3) Al Hurra

0.2

0.1

0.3

 

4) Al Manar

4.2

6.0

1.0

 

5) Palestine TV

8.9

6.0

14.0

 

6) Al-Aqsa TV

12.1

6.6

21.7

 

7) Do not watch TV

6.5

6.6

6.5

 

8) Others

2.4

3.3

1.0

 

9) Do not have a dish

2.2

3.1

0.7

 

9) No Opinion/Don’t know

0.1

0.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

01)

Are you satisfied or not satisfied with the performance of Mahmud Abbas since his election as president of the PA?

 

1) Very satisfied

6.7

4.6

10.3

 

2) Satisfied

39.0

38.2

40.3

 

3) Not satisfied 

35.7

38.4

30.8

 

4) not satisfied at all

15.7

15.7

15.7

 

5) DK/NA

3.0

3.0

2.9

 

 

 

 

 

02)

If new presidential elections are to take place today, and Mahmud Abbas was nominated by Fateh and Ismail Haniyeh was nominated by Hamas, whom would you vote for?

 

1) Mahmoud Abbas

52.1

49.2

56.2

 

2) Ismael Haneyyeh

39.5

39.8

39.0

 

3 DK/NA

8.4

11.0

4.8

 

 

 

 

 

03)

And if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti representing Fateh and Ismael Haneyyeh representing Hams, whom would you vote for?

 

1) Marwan Barghouti

60.8

61.5

59.9

 

2) Ismael Haneyyeh

34.3

32.5

37.0

 

3) No Opinion/ Don’t know

4.9

6.0

3.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

05)

 

If new elections agreed to by all factions are held today and the same lists that took part in the last PLC elections were nominated, for whom would you vote?

 

1) alternative

1.0

1.2

0.6

 

2) independent Palestine

2.1

3.4

0.2

 

3) Abu Ali Mustafa

4.1

5.1

2.5

 

4) Abu al Abbas

0.6

0.8

0.3

 

5) Freedom and Social Justice

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

6) change and reform

31.0

29.7

33.0

 

7) national coalition for justice and democracy

0.3

0.5

 

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

 

8) third way

0.6

1.0

 

 

9) freedom and independence

0.5

0.3

0.6

 

10) Palestinian justice

0.1

0.1

 

 

11) Fateh

43.4

39.9

48.5

 

12) none of the above/ DK/NA

16.4

17.9

14.1

 

 

 

 

 

06)

Hamas carried out a military step in mid June against security headquarters belonging to the PA in the Gaza Strip and succeeded after that in controlling the Strip. Do you approve or disapprove of what Hamas did?

 

1) Strongly approve

5.7

5.2

6.7

 

2) Approve

19.0

17.9

20.8

 

3) Disapprove

48.6

51.8

43.1

 

4) Strongly disapprove

21.8

19.2

26.4

 

5) DK/NA

4.9

5.9

3.0

 

 

 

 

 

07)

President Mahmud Abbas dismissed the government of Ismail Haniyeh after the Gaza events about three months ago. But the prime minister of the dismissed government remained in his position in the Gaza Strip. Do you approve or disapprove of his decision to stay in his position?

 

1) Strongly approve

7.9

7.0

9.6

 

2) Approve

37.4

38.0

36.2

 

3) Disapprove

36.2

34.7

38.7

 

4) Strongly disapprove

11.2

10.5

12.3

 

5) DK/NA

7.4

9.8

3.2

 

 

 

 

 

08)

Moreover, President Abbas appointed an emergency government headed by Salam Fayyad. After the ending of the emergency period and due to the inability of the PLC to convene, the government of Fayyad became a care taker one. Do you approve or disapprove of the continued functioning of this government?

 

1) Strongly approve

3.8

3.0

5.1

 

2) Approve

37.8

37.1

39.0

 

3) Disapprove

40.9

41.7

39.5

 

4) Strongly disapprove

10.4

9.5

11.9

 

5) DK/NA

7.1

8.7

4.4

 

 

 

 

 

09)

After the separation between Gaza and the West Bank, Hamas and the government of Ismail Haniyeh remained in power in Gaza and considered itself the legitimate government while president Abu Mazin formed a new government headed by Salam Fayyad and it too considered itself legitimate. What about you, which of the two government you consider legitimate, the government of Haniyeh or the government of Abu Mazin and Fayyad?

 

1) Haniyehs’ government is the legitimate one

29.4

28.4

31.2

 

2) Abu Mazin’s and Fayyad government is the legitimate one

31.0

29.5

33.7

 

3) Both governments are legitimate

7.1

8.1

5.5

 

4) Both governments are not legitimate

28.0

28.7

26.7

 

5) DK/NA

4.5

5.4

2.9

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

10)

Fateh and Hamas and the two authorities in Gaza and the West Bank are currently engaged in a competition to win public support and confidence through the use of media such as Palestine TV and al Aqsa TV stations. When you hear news from the two sides, which side you trust more, the news spread by Hamas and Haniyeh’s government or the news spread by Fateh and the Abu Mazin’s and Fayyad’s government?

 

1) Trust Hamas and Haniyeh’s government

22.7

21.3

25.3

 

2) Trust Fateh and Abu Mazin’s and Salam’s governemtn

19.8

18.3

22.3

 

3) Trust both sides

3.9

4.9

2.1

 

4) Trust neither side

49.1

49.8

47.9

 

5) DK/NA

4.5

5.7

2.4

 

 

 

 

 

11)

In general, how would you describe conditions of the Palestinians in the Palestinian areas in Gaza Strip these days?

 

1) Very good

0.8

0.6

1.0

 

2) Good

3.7

3.0

5.0

 

3) So so

7.9

7.6

8.4

 

4) Bad

32.6

37.4

24.2

 

5) Very bad

53.8

49.5

61.4

 

6) DK/NA

1.2

1.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

12)

In general, how would you describe conditions of the Palestinians in the Palestinian areas in the West Bank these days?

 

1) Very good

3.1

2.1

5.0

 

2) Good

21.8

18.0

28.3

 

3) So so

27.3

27.5

26.9

 

4) Bad

28.8

33.7

20.3

 

5) Very bad

16.8

18.6

13.6

 

6) DK/NA

2.3

0.2

5.9

 

 

 

 

 

13)

Generally, do you see yourself as:

 

1) Religious

47.0

40.1

59.1

 

2) Somewhat religious

49.6

55.2

39.7

 

3) Not religious

3.2

4.6

0.9

 

4) DK/NA

0.2

0.1

0.3

 

 

 

 

 

14)

Generally, do you see yourself as:

 

1) Supportive of the peace process

71.1

68.4

75.7

 

2) Opposed to the peace process

13.7

15.5

10.6

 

3) Between support and opposition

14.4

15.2

13.1

 

4) DK/NA

0.8

0.9

0.6

 

 

 

 

 

15)

Do you think that there is corruption in PA institutions under the control of President Abu Mazin?

 

1) Yes 

76.9

79.5

72.3

 

2) No 

14.3

11.5

19.1

 

3) DK/NA

8.9

9.0

8.6

         

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

16)

If yes, will this corruption in PA institutions under the control of President Abu Mazin increase, decrease or remain as it is in the future?

 

1) Will increase   

47.2

55.4

31.3

 

2) Will remain as it is

13.0

12.0

15.0

 

3) will decrease

30.5

22.5

45.9

 

4) DK/NA

9.3

10.1

7.8

 

 

 

 

 

17)

Would you say that these days your security and safety, and that of your family, is assured or not assured?

 

1) Completely assured

5.4

2.3

10.7

 

2) Assured

38.0

37.7

38.4

 

3) Not assured  

44.9

48.5

38.6

 

4) Not assured at all 

11.3

10.9

12.0

 

5) DK/NA

0.5

0.6

0.3

 

 

 

 

 

18)

How would you evaluate the current status of democracy and human rights in the Palestinian Authority under Abu Mazin? Would you say it is:

 

1) Very good 

4.0

3.0

5.6

 

2) Good 

29.0

25.9

34.5

 

3) neither bad nor good

23.1

24.9

19.9

 

4) Bad

26.9

29.3

22.6

 

5) Very bad

14.5

13.7

15.9

 

6) DK/NA

2.6

3.2

1.5

 

 

 

 

 

19)

How would you evaluate the current status of democracy and human rights in the Gaza Strip under Ismail Hanyieh government? Would you say it is:

 

1) Very good 

3.7

1.8

7.1

 

2) Good 

19.1

15.1

26.2

 

3) Fair

15.4

15.2

15.7

 

4) Bad

31.5

35.7

24.1

 

5) Very bad

22.9

21.2

25.9

 

6) DK/NA

7.3

11.0

0.9

 

 

 

 

 

20)

Few months ago, news emerged that mobile phones were smuggled from Jordan into the Palestinian territories in the car of the former speaker of the parliament Rouhi Fattouh. News were also reported about the arrest of the driver for investigation while Fattouh announced his innocence and resigned from his work in the president office. Do you believe the PA handling of this episode demonstrates success on fighting corruption or success in covering up corruption?

 

1) certainly covering up corruption

16.9

19.3

12.8

 

2) covering up corruption

41.9

44.9

36.8

 

3) fighting corruption

25.2

21.1

32.4

 

4) certainly fighting corruption

2.7

2.7

2.6

 

5) DK/NO

13.2

12.0

15.4

 

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

 

21)

As an exit strategy for the current crisis between Fateh and Hamas and the split of authority, Hamas’s position is to call for an unconditional dialogue with Abu Mazin based on the current status quo. Abu Mazin’s and Fateh’s position is that he would agree to such a dialogue but under one condition; Hamas must first transfer control of the PA Gaza headquarters to him and return to the status quo ante. Which of the two positions is closer to your view?

 

1) Hamas’s position

32.7

29.9

37.6

 

2) Abu Mazin’s and Fateh’s position

37.1

35.1

40.6

 

3) I disagree with both positions

27.7

31.9

20.3

 

4) DK/NA

2.6

3.2

1.6

 

 

 

 

 

22)

Tell us how do you evaluate the performance of the dismissed government of Ismail Haniyeh in the Gaza Strip? Is it good or bad?

 

1) Very Good

8.8

5.7

14.2

 

2) Good

27.7

29.0

25.3

 

3) Neither good nor bad

21.7

22.3

20.6

 

4) Bad

25.9

27.2

23.6

 

5) Very Bad

9.4

6.6

14.3

 

6) No Opinion/Don’t know

6.5

9.2

1.9

 

 

 

 

 

23)

Tell us how do you evaluate the performance of the government headed by Salam Fayyad? Is it good or bad?

 

1) Very Good

3.9

3.2

5.2

 

2) Good

29.3

28.1

31.5

 

3) Neither good nor bad

22.3

23.0

21.0

 

 

4) Bad

26.0

27.0

24.3

 

5) Very Bad

11.9

11.1

13.4

 

6) No Opinion/Don’t know

6.5

7.7

4.6

 

 

 

 

 

24)

Who, in your views, is responsible for the continued split in the PA between Gaza and the West Bank? Fateh or Hamas?

 

1) Hamas

17.3

13.7

23.5

 

2) Fateh

16.5

16.3

16.8

 

3) Both of them

56.0

57.4

53.6

 

4) No one

3.5

3.8

3.0

 

5) Other

4.1

5.3

1.9

 

6) No Opinion/ Don’t know

2.6

3.4

1.2

 

 

 

 

 

25)

The Palestinian Authority carried out a deployment of its security forces in some cities and districts. In your views, did it succeed or fail in enforcing law and order in the areas of deployment?

 

1) succeeded

25.8

27.2

23.3

 

2) somewhat succeeded

30.9

37.0

20.4

 

3) failed

34.3

27.7

45.9

 

4) DK/NA

9.0

8.2

10.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

26)

The Palestinian Authority says that the purpose of the security deployment is to enforce law and order while other Palestinian groups say one of the purposes is to disarm the resistance groups. What in your views is the purpose of the deployment?

 

1) enforce law and order

34.8

36.5

31.9

 

2) disarm resistance groups

28.4

25.1

34.0

 

3) both of the above

22.7

24.0

20.4

 

4) none of the above

7.5

7.7

7.0

 

5) DK/NA

6.7

6.7

6.7

 

 

 

 

 

27)

In your view who is more able to reach a peace agreement with Israel, the Palestinian Authority under president Mahmud Abbas or a Hamas government headed by Ismail Haniyeh?

 

1) a Hamas government headed by Haniyeh

14.6

13.4

16.6

 

2) PA under Abbas

48.9

49.2

48.3

 

3) both equally

8.1

7.8

8.6

 

4) none of them

25.3

26.2

23.6

 

5) DK/NA

3.2

3.4

2.8

 

 

 

 

 

28)

In your view who is more able to force Israel to make more concession to the Palestinians, a government of Hamas headed by Haniyeh or the PA under Abbas?

 

1) PA under Abbas

41.3

39.7

44.3

 

2) Hamas government headed by Haniyeh

24.9

23.8

26.9

 

3) both equally

6.9

7.8

5.4

 

4) none of them

24.0

25.0

22.4

 

5) DK/NA

2.8

3.8

1.1

 

 

 

 

 

29)

If the choice was between negotiations conducted by president Mahmud Abbas and negotiations conducted by Marwan Barghouti, who in your view is more able to force Israel to make more concessions, Abbas or Barghouti?

 

1) Abbas

30.6

26.9

37.0

 

2) Barghouti

28.1

31.4

22.5

 

3) both equally

11.2

11.2

11.2

 

4) none of them

24.6

23.7

26.3

 

5) DK/NA

5.4

6.8

2.9

 

 

 

 

 

30)

If Israel agrees to conduct peace negotiations with a Hamas, do you think the Hamas should or should not negotiate with Israel?

 

1) certainly it should negotiate

16.9

15.2

20.0

 

2) it should negotiate

42.7

41.8

44.2

 

3) it should not negotiate

26.4

29.4

21.2

 

4) certainly it should not negotiate

9.0

7.5

11.5

 

5) DK/NA

5.0

6.1

3.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

31)

There is a proposal that after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the settlemnet of all issues in dispute, including the refugees and Jerusalem issues, there will be a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinians people. Do you agree or disagree to this proposal?

 

1) Definitely agree

7.4

7.4

7.5

 

2) agree

48.4

48.8

47.6

 

3) disagree

33.6

33.2

34.4

 

4) definitely disagree

9.6

9.1

10.5

 

5) DK/NA

0.9

1.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

32)

And what is the Palestinian majority opinion on this issue? Do most Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza support or oppose the recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people at the end of the peace process?

 

1) Majority supports

52.2

50.5

55.0

 

2) Majority opposes

39.5

40.2

38.3

 

3) DK/NA

8.3

9.2

6.7

 

 

 

 

 

33)

And what is the Israeli majority opinion on this issue? Do most Israelis support or oppose the recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people at the end of the peace process?

 

1) Majority supports

41.0

35.5

50.7

 

2) Majority opposes

50.1

54.9

41.8

 

5) DK/NA

8.8

9.6

7.5

 

 

 

 

 

34)

Now 40 years after the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, what in your view are the chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state next to the state of Israel in the next five years? Are they high, medium, low, or none existent?

 

1) None existent

31.6

33.2

28.9

 

2) Low

34.7

34.4

35.2

 

3) Medium

27.0

26.6

27.7

 

4) High

3.0

2.2

4.4

 

5) DK/NA

3.7

3.7

3.8

 

 

 

 

 

35)

According to the Saudi plan, Israel will retreat from all territories occupied in 1967 including Gaza the West Bank, Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, and a Palestinian state will be established. The refugees problem will be resoved through negotiation in a just and agreed upon manner and in accordance with UN resolution 194 which allows return of refugees to Israel and compensation. In return, all Arab states will recognize Israel and its right to secure borders, will sign peace treaties with her and establish normal diplomatic relations.  Do you agree or disagree to this plan?

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

 

1) Certainly agree

7.5

6.8

8.7

 

2) agree

59.5

56.6

64.5

 

3) disagree

22.4

24.3

19.2

 

4) Certainly disagree

6.0

6.8

4.6

 

5) DK/NA

4.6

5.5

2.9

 

 

 

 

 

36)

The US, Russia, the European Community and the UN, the so called "Quartet", have put forward a "Roadmap" for the implementation of a final settlement within 3 years. The plan includes political reforms in the Palestinian Authority, including a constitution and election of a strong Prime Minister, stopping the incitement and violence on both sides under the Quartet's supervision, a freeze on settlements and the establishment of a Palestinian State within provisional borders. The next phase will see negotiations on the final borders under the auspices of an international conference. Do you support or oppose this initiative?

 

1) Strongly support

2.8

2.2

3.9

 

2) Support

46.7

46.6

47.0

 

3) Oppose

37.1

36.8

37.6

 

4) Strongly oppose

9.8

9.8

9.9

 

5) Don’t know/No answer

3.5

4.6

1.7

 

 

 

 

 

37B)

When Palestinians and Israelis return to final status negotiations the following items might be presented to negotiators as the elements of a permanent compromise settlement. Tell us what you think of each item then tell us what you think of all combined as one permanent status settlement

1. An Israeli withdrawal from all of the Gaza Strip and the evacuation of its settlements. But in the West Bank, Israel withdraws and evacuates settlements from most of it, with the exception of few settlement areas in less than 3% of the West Bank that would be exchanged with an equal amount of territory from Israel in accordance with the attached map {show map}.

2. An independent Palestinian state would be established in the areas from which Israel withdraws in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip; the Palestinian state will have no army, but it will have a strong security force but an international multinational force would be deployed to insure the safety and security of the state. Both sides will be committed to end all forms of violence directed against each other.

3. East Jerusalem would become the capital of the Palestinian state with Arab neighborhoods coming under Palestinian sovereignty and Jewish neighborhoods coming under Israel sovereignty. The Old City (including al Haram al Sharif) would come under Palestinian sovereignty with the exception of the Jewish Quarter and the Wailing Wall that will come under Israeli sovereignty.

4. With regard to the refugee question, both sides agree that the solution will be based on UN resolutions 194 and 242 and on the Arab peace initiative. The refugees will be given five choices for permanent residency. These are: the Palestinian state and the Israeli areas transferred to the Palestinian state in the territorial exchange mentioned above; no restrictions would be imposed on refugee return to these two areas. Residency in the other three areas (in host countries, third countries, and Israel) would be subject to the decision of the states in those areas. The number of refugees returning to Israel will be based on the average number of refugees admitted to third countries like Australia, Canada, Europe, and others. All refugees will be entitled to compensation for their "refugeehood" and loss of properties.

5. When the permanent status agreement is fully implemented, it will mean the end of the conflict and no further claims will be made by either side. The parties will recognize Palestine and Israel as the homelands of their respective peoples 6. The Palestinian state will have sovereignty over its land, water, and airspace. But Israeli will be allowed to use the Palestinian airspace for training purposes, and will maintain two early warning stations in the West Bank for 15 years. The multinational force will remain in the Palestinian state for an indefinite period of time and its responsibility will be to insure the implementation of the agreement, and to monitor territorial borders and coast of the Palestinian state including its international border crossings.

Now that you have been informed of each element of the permanent compromise settlement, tell us what you think of each of its item. Do you agree or disagree with it.

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

37-1B)

Item #1: withdrawal to 1967  borders with territorial swap

 

1) Strongly agree

5.6

6.0

4.9

 

2) Agree

57.1

56.3

58.4

 

3) Disagree

25.5

25.5

25.6

 

4) Strongly Disagree

9.4

9.2

9.8

 

5) No Opinion /Don’t Know

2.3

3.0

1.2

37-2B)

Item #2: a state without an army but with international forces

 

1) Strongly agree

1.4

1.6

1.1

 

2) Agree

26.5

27.9

24.0

 

3) Disagree

54.3

53.4

55.8

 

4) Strongly Disagree

16.4

15.1

18.6

 

5) No Opinion /Don’t Know

1.4

1.9

0.4

37-3B)

Item #3: East Jerusalem as capital of the state of Palestine after it is divided

 

1) Strongly agree

1.0

1.7

 0.0

 

2) Agree

36.9

39.7

32.2

 

3) Disagree

44.5

42.8

47.4

 

4) Strongly Disagree

16.4

14.3

20.1

 

5) No Opinion /Don’t Know

1.1

1.5

0.4

 

 

 

 

 

37-4B)

Item #4: refugees with five options for permanent residence

 

1) Strongly agree

1.7

1.8

1.5

 

2) Agree

39.3

41.9

35.0

 

3) Disagree

41.8

41.2

42.8

 

4) Strongly Disagree

14.7

12.3

18.7

 

5) No Opinion /Don’t Know

2.4

2.7

2.0

37-5B)

Item #5: end of conflict

 

1) Strongly agree

5.2

6.3

3.4

 

2) Agree

50.3

52.5

46.5

 

3) Disagree

31.7

30.4

33.8

 

4) Strongly Disagree

11.1

8.5

15.5

 

5) No Opinion /Don’t Know

1.8

2.3

0.8

 37-6B)

Item #6: a sovereign state with security arrangements

 

1) Strongly agree

2.3

2.6

1.9

 

2) Agree

35.5

32.3

40.8

 

3) Disagree

45.3

48.5

39.9

 

4) Strongly Disagree

14.9

13.6

17.0

 

5) No Opinion /Don’t Know

2.0

3.0

0.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

37-7B)

Item #7: the combined elements as one permanent status settlement

 

1) Strongly agree

1.5

1.3

1.9

 

2) Agree

44.2

43.1

46.0

 

3) Disagree

38.8

40.0

36.8

 

4) Strongly Disagree

13.5

12.9

14.5

 

5) No Opinion /Don’t Know

2.0

2.7

0.8

 

 

 

 

 

38-1B)

And what is the Palestinian majority opinion on this combined package for a permanent status settlement?  Do most Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza support or oppose this combined final status package?

 

1) Majority supports

49.4

47.9

51.8

 

2) Majority opposes

40.7

40.2

41.6

 

3) DK/NA

9.9

11.9

6.6

 

 

 

 

 

38-2B)

And what is the Israeli majority opinion on this combined package for a permanent status settlement?  Do most Israelis support or oppose this combined final status package?

 

1) Majority supports

36.8

32.0

44.7

 

2) Majority opposes

50.5

53.1

46.2

 

3) DK/NA

12.7

14.9

9.1

 

 

 

 

 

39) 

If a peace agreement is reached, and a Palestinian state is established and recognized by Israel, would you support or oppose the efforts to reach full reconciliation between Israel and the Palestinian state?

 

1) Would strongly support

9.4

9.8

8.8

 

2) Would support

63.1

62.0

65.0

 

3) Would oppose

20.5

21.1

19.4

 

4) Would strongly oppose

5.8

5.6

6.1

 

5) DK/NA

1.2

1.5

0.7

 

 

 

 

 

40)

And what are your expectations regarding the chances for the success or failure of the negotiations launched by Annapolis conference? Will it succeed or fail in ending Israeli occupation?

 

1) certainly will succeed

0.7

0.5

0.9

 

2) will succeed

15.6

16.2

14.7

 

3) will fail

51.0

50.2

52.5

 

4) certainly will fail

25.0

23.9

26.8

 

5) DK/NA

7.7

9.2

5.1

 

 

 

 

 

41)

The joint statement issued by the Annapolis conference stated that the two sides will seek to conclude the permanent status negotiations before the end of 2008. Do you think they will indeed succeed in achieving that on the period indicated?

 

1) certainly will succeed

0.5

0.3

0.7

 

2) will succeed

14.4

13.6

15.8

 

3) will not succeed

53.8

52.9

55.4

 

4) certainly will not succeed

25.6

26.0

25.0

 

5) DK/NA

5.7

7.2

3.1

 

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

42)

In your view, is it possible or impossible these days to reach a compromise permanent status agreement with the Olmert government?

 

1) Certainly possible

0.7

0.1

1.9

 

2) Possible

21.5

19.4

25.1

 

3) Impossible

47.5

47.9

46.7

 

4) Certainly impossible

27.6

29.1

25.0

 

5) DK/NA

2.7

3.5

1.3

 

 

 

 

 

43)

With regard to meetings between Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and PA President Mahmud Abbas, do you see them beneficial and should be continued or do you see them unbeneficial and should be stopped?

 

1) Beneficial, and should continue

27.0

24.8

30.9

 

2) Unbeneficial and should stop

68.4

69.8

66.0

 

3) NO/DK

4.6

5.4

3.1

 

 

 

 

 

44)

How soon do you think will a political settlement between Israel and the Palestinians be achieved?

 

1) A political settlement is not possible ever

42.0

40.4

44.7

 

2) Only in many generations to come

21.9

21.5

22.7

 

3) Only in the next generation

8.9

9.6

7.6

 

4) Only in the next decade

5.8

5.2

7.0

 

5) Only in the next few years

15.6

16.6

13.8

 

6) No Opinion /Don’t know

5.8

6.7

4.2

 

 

 

 

 

45)

After reaching a peace agreement between the Palestinian people and Israel and the establishment of a Palestinian state that is recognized by Israel, how soon do you think will reconciliation between the two peoples be achieved?

 

1) Reconciliation is not possible ever

42.9

40.4

47.2

 

2) Only in many generations to come

20.5

21.2

19.1

 

3) Only in the next generation

12.4

13.3

11.0

 

4) Only in the next decade

6.3

6.5

5.9

 

5) On the next few years

11.4

11.5

11.3

 

6) No Opinion /Don’t know

6.5

7.0

5.5

 

 

 

 

 

46)

There is a talk about conducting Palestinian-Israeli negotiations on an interim settlement whereby a Palestinian state is established in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip while other issues, such as refugees, would be postponed. Other people prefer negotiations that would lead to a comprehensive settlement that would lead to permanent peace and end of conflict with all issues, including refugees, resolved. Which of the two positions do you prefer: the interim settlement or the comprehensive one?

 

1) definitely the interim

2.3

2.8

1.5

 

2) the interim

12.9

10.6

16.9

 

3) the comprehensive

60.2

57.8

64.3

 

4) definitely the comprehensive

20.4

24.7

13.1

 

5) DK/NA

4.1

4.1

4.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

47)

Some people think that a solution based on the establishment of a Palestinian state along side Israel, known as the two-state solution, is difficult to achieve and that Palestinians should struggle for another solution, one in which Israel is unified with the West Bank and the Gaza Strip to establish one state whereby Palestinian Arabs and Israeli Jews would be equal. In your view, which of the two solutions is more difficult to achieve?

 

1) two-state solution

35.7

33.0

40.4

 

2) the one-state solution

37.5

38.3

36.3

 

3) both equally difficult

24.8

26.8

21.4

 

4) DK/NA

1.9

1.9

1.9

 

48)

Regardless of its difficulty, which of the two solutions do you support?

 

1) the two-state solution

57.6

58.3

56.3

 

2) the one-state solution

27.0

24.6

31.0

 

3) another solution (specify -------- )

10.4

12.2

7.3

 

4) DK/NA

5.1

4.9

5.3

 

 

 

 

 

49)

Do you support or oppose the launching of rockets from the Gaza Strip against towns and cities inside Israel, such as Sderot and Ashkelon?

 

1) Certainly support

17.3

13.3

24.2

 

2) Support

39.9

42.1

36.2

 

3) Oppose

33.0

34.2

31.0

 

4) Certainly oppose

6.5

6.2

7.2

 

5) NA/DK

3.2

4.2

1.4

 

 

 

 

 

50)

Concerning armed attacks against Israeli civilians inside Israel, I….

 

1) Strongly support

15.9

11.9

22.9

 

2) Support

38.9

38.1

40.3

 

3) Oppose

37.2

39.6

33.2

 

4) Strongly oppose

4.5

5.4

2.9

 

5) DK/NA

3.4

5.0

0.6

 

 

 

 

 

51)

Hamas is currently negotiation with Israel via Egypt to conclude a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip. Do you support or oppose a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip?

 

1) certainly support

13.9

13.6

14.2

 

2) support

63.7

65.4

60.7

 

3) oppose

18.2

17.9

18.8

 

4) certainly oppose

3.0

2.1

4.6

 

5) DK/NA

1.2

1.0

1.7

 

 

 

 

 

52_1)

If the ceasefire is restricted to the Gaza Strip, and does not cover the West Bank, would you support or oppose it?

 

1) certainly support

2.1

1.7

2.8

 

2) support

20.7

22.5

17.6

 

3) oppose

64.9

64.9

64.9

 

4) certainly oppose

10.6

9.2

13.1

 

5) DK/NA

1.7

1.8

1.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

52_2)

What if the ceasefire did not stipulate an immediate opening of the crossings, especially the Rafah crossing to Egypt, would you in this case support or oppose it?

 

1) certainly support

2.2

1.3

3.6

 

2) support

17.6

18.5

16.0

 

3) oppose

64.7

67.1

60.4

 

4) certainly oppose

13.9

10.6

19.5

 

5) DK/NA

1.7

2.5

0.5

 

53)

There is talk of indirect Israeli-Syrian negotiations. If significant progress is made in these negotiations or if a peace agreement is reached between the two countries, do you think such a development would represent an impediment to the success of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, would contribute to successful Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, or would have no impact?

 

1) will contribute to successful Palestinian-Israeli negotiations

31.8

31.7

32.0

 

2) will represent an impediment to successful Palestinian-Israeli negotiations

25.8

25.5

26.3

 

3) will have no impact on Palestinian-Israeli negotiations

34.6

33.0

37.6

 

4) DK/NA

7.7

9.8

4.2

 

54)

What do you expect to happen between Palestinians and Israelis, if indeed a cease fire agreement is achieved with Hamas?

 

1) Negotiations will resume soon enough and armed confrontations will stop

19.9

21.2

17.6

 

2) Negotiations will resume but some armed attacks will continue

39.5

35.2

46.9

 

3) Armed confrontations will not stop and the two sides will not return to negotiations

34.9

36.9

31.4

 

4) DK/NA

5.8

6.8

4.1

 

 

 

 

 

55)

Last month, Hezbollah took control of West Beirut by force and said that its action was aiming at protecting the arms of the resistance. In your view, was the action of Hezbollah a legitimate or illegitimate use of arms of the resistance?

 

1) certainly a legitimate use

21.3

25.6

14.1

 

2) a legitimate use

30.7

34.6

24.0

 

3) illegitimate use

28.3

23.1

37.4

 

4) certainly illegitimate use

8.0

4.3

14.5

 

5) DK/NA

11.6

12.5

10.0

 

 

 

 

 

56)

Despite the Doha agreement between the Lebanese factions, some people are concerned that developments in Lebanon could take a turn toward a return to civil war, this time between Sunnites and Shiites. Do you expect or do not expect such a development toward civil war in the future?

 

1) certainly, a civil war between Sunnites and Shiites will take place

8.9

7.9

10.7

 

2) a civil war between Sunnites and Shiites will take place

36.0

32.9

41.4

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

 

3) a civil war between Sunnites and Shiites will take not take place

37.7

40.5

33.0

 

4) certainly, a civil war between Sunnites and Shiites will not take place

6.3

7.9

3.4

 

5) DK/NA

11.0

10.8

11.4

 

 

 

 

 

57)

If such a civil war takes place, who in your view will win it: the Sunnites under the leadership of the Future Trend or the Shiites under the leadership of Hezbollah and Amal movement?

 

1) Shiites

36.9

40.2

31.2

 

2) Sunnites

18.1

15.0

23.6

 

3) neither one

29.1

28.1

30.7

 

4) DK/NA

15.9

16.7

14.4

 

58)

If such a civil war takes place, which side would you support: the Shiites under the leadership of Hezbollah and Amal movement or the Sunnites under the leadership of the Future Trend?

 

1) Shiites

21.2

25.5

13.8

 

2) Sunnites

34.1

27.5

45.4

 

3) neither one

35.1

37.6

30.8

 

4) DK/NA

9.6

9.4

9.9

 

 

 

 

 

59)

Which of the following political parties do you support?

 

1) PPP

0.2

0.1

0.2

 

2) PFLP

4.0

4.8

2.6

 

3) Fateh

32.3

30.5

35.4

 

4) Hamas

21.7

19.2

26.0

 

5) DFLP

0.6

0.9

 

 

6) Islamic Jihad

1.6

1.1

2.4

 

7)Fida

0.1

0.2

 

 

8) National Initiative (Mubadara)

0.5

0.7

0.2

 

9) Independent Islamists

3.1

1.6

5.8

 

10) Independent Nationalists

3.7

3.9

3.5

 

11) None of the above

31.5

36.2

23.3

 

12) Other, specify

0.6

0.6

0.6

 

   ------------------   

This PSR survey was conducted with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ramallah

 

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