PSR - Survey Research Unit: Public Opinion Poll # 30

 

PSR poll 27 full analysis

22 December 2008

 

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (30)

Palestinians want legislative and presidential elections in early 2009 to resolve Fateh-Hamas power struggle and want a strong intervention from the Obama Administration to resolve the conflict with Israel 

3-5 December 2008

 

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 3 and 5 December 2008. This period witnessed the collapse of the Egyptian efforts to bring Palestinian factions to reconciliation talks in Cairo due to Hamas’s decision to boycott these talks. It also witnessed serious deterioration in the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The poll examines the following topics: domestic issues such as the balance of power, the performance and legitimacy of two governments, that of Ismail Haniyeh and Salam Fayyad, the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip, the peace process, and attitudes toward and expectations from the Obama administration. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults, 830 in the West Bank and 440 in the Gaza Strip, interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%. For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

 

Table of contents:

 1) Domestic Palestinian Conditions

2) Peace Process

3) Expectations from and attitudes toward the Obama administration

4)Main Findings in numbers

 

Main Findings:

Findings of the fourth quarter of 2008 indicate an end to the slow decline in Hamas’s popularity and continued stability in Fateh’s popularity despite Hamas’s boycott of the reconciliation talks scheduled to take place last month in Cairo. In fact, findings show that the gap between the popularity of President Abbas compared to that of Ismail Haniyeh has narrowed from 14 percentage points in the third quarter to 10 percentage points in the last quarter of 2008. The largest percentage blames both Hamas and Fateh for the collapse of the reconciliation efforts and the continuation of the divisions among Palestinians while smaller but similar percentages blame Fateh or Hamas alone. Positive evaluation of Palestinian conditions in the West Bank remains much higher than the positive evaluation of Palestinian conditions in the Gaza Strip. As we found in our previous poll, almost two thirds share Hamas’s belief that the term of President Abbas ends in the first month of January 2009 as Hamas claims and not in the first month of 2010 as Fateh and the presidency claim. Findings also show that about three quarters support the call by the president to organize new elections in early 2009 if reconciliation talks do not succeed. But we also found that the majority opposes holding elections in the West Bank only, to be followed later by elections in the Gaza Strip that would be organized once reconciliation is achieved.

Findings show stability in public support for the Saudi initiative reaching two thirds. But they indicate significant decline in support for a permanent settlement along the lines of the Clinton parameters and the Geneva Initiative. Most interestingly, findings show a majority support for a strong role for the new Obama administration in the Palestinian-Israeli peace process. However, a majority of Palestinians does not expect that to happen. Findings also show a majority of Palestinians supporting a strong American intervention to pressure the two sides to accept and implement the Saudi Initiative. They also show that the percentage of support for a similar American intervention to pressure the two sides to accept and implement a permanent settlement along the lines of the Clinton parameters and the Geneva Initiative is higher than the percentage of Palestinian acceptance for that permanent settlement. This might indicate that one reason for Palestinian rejection of that settlement might have to do with lack of trust in the willingness of the other side to implement that settlement.

 

 (1) Domestic Palestinian Conditions

  • Popularity of Hamas and Fateh remains unchanged despite Hamas’s boycott of the national dialogue in Cairo, Hamas receives 28% and Fateh 42%.

  • Gap between Abbas and Haniyeh narrows: if new presidential elections are to take place today, Abbas receives 48%, Haniyeh 38%. If the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Haniyeh, the former receives 59% and the latter 32%.

  • Largest percentage blames Fateh and Hamas together for failure of national dialogue

  • 64% believe that Abbas’s term in office ends in January 2009.

  • 73% support Abbas call for early and simultaneous presidential and legislative elections in early 2009.

  • 88% of the Palestinians say that conditions in Gaza are bad and 40% say conditions in the West Bank are bad.

  • Positive evaluation of Haniyeh’s government reaches 36%, positive evaluation of Fayyad’s government reaches 34%

  • Satisfaction with the performance of Abbas reaches 46%

  • Public is divided over the ability of the new Palestinian security deployment in Hebron: 45% expect the new deployment to lead to enforcement of law and order while 48% expect it will fail in enforcing law and order.

 

Findings show that Hamas’s popularity remain unchanged despite its boycott of the national dialogue scheduled to take place in Cairo. If new parliamentary elections were to take place today with the approval of all factions, the Change and Reform list of Hamas would receive 28% of the vote (compared to 29% three months ago) and Fateh’s list would received 42% (compared to 43% three months ago). The combined strength of all other factions and parties stands today at 10% (compared to 11% three months ago). The undecided stands today at 20%. In the Gaza Strip, support for Hamas stands at 32% and for Fateh at 46%.  In the West Bank, support for Hamas stands at 25% and Fateh at 39%. If new presidential elections were held today and Abbas was nominated by Fateh and Ismail Haniyeh was nominated by Hamas, 48% would vote for Abbas and 38% for Haniyeh. Three months ago, support for Abbas stood at 53% and for Haniyeh at 39%. In other words, the gap between the two men has decreased from 14 percentage points to 10. In the Gaza Strip, support for Abbas stands at 46% (compared to 42% for Haniyeh), and in the West Bank, support for Abbas stands at 48% (compared to 36% for Haniyeh). If the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Haniyeh, the former would receive 59% to Haniyeh’s 32%. In the Gaza Strip, support for Barghouti stands at 54% (compared to 39% for Haniyeh), and in the West Bank support for Barghouti stands at 62% (compared to 28% for Haniyeh).

If reconciliation between Fateh and Hamas succeeds and early legislative and presidential elections were to take place in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, 39% believe that the main issue that will occupy people’s mind and affect their vote will be the ending of the boycott and blockade and the improvement of living conditions while 29% say the main issue will be the consolidation of the unification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and the realization of national unity. Fighting corruption is believed to be the main issue by 12%, 8% believe the issue will be continuation of resistance to Israeli occupation, and another 8% believe it will be the continuation of the peace process.

The largest percentage (46%) believes that both Fateh and Hamas are responsible for the failure of national reconciliation efforts while only 23% blame Hamas alone and 20% blame Fateh alone. Similarly, only 19% blame Hamas for the continued split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip while 18% blame Fateh; but the majority (55%) blames the two sides together. Palestinians are divided over the main reason for Hamas’s boycott of the dialogue and reconciliation meetings in Cairo: 30% believe it was arrest of Hamas members in the West Bank, 26% believe it was external pressure on Hamas, 17% believe it was due to internal divisions within Hamas, and 10% believe it was due to Egypt’s siding with Fateh against Hamas.

A majority of 64% believe that the term of President Abbas ends in January 2009 while only 24% believe it ends one year later, in January 2010. When we asked those who believe the president’s term ends in January 2009 who should in that case be the president on that date, the overwhelming majority (72%) said new elections should take place on that date while only 15% said it should be the Speaker of the Palestinian parliament and 7% said that Abbas should stay in office after that date.  Similarly, 73% support the call by the president to organize presidential and parliamentary elections in early 2009 if the dialogue between Fateh and Hamas fails. But support drops considerably to 40% for elections that would take place in the West Bank only to be followed later by elections in the Gaza Strip after reconciliation is achieved.

Support for presidential and legislative elections in the West Bank now and in Gaza later increases in the West Bank (45%) compared to the Gaza Strip (32%), among those who identify themselves as somewhat religious (43%) compared to those who identify themselves as religious (38%), among supporters of the peace process (43%) compared to those who oppose the peace process (33%), among public sector employees (46%) compared to private sector employees (39%), among those who say they intend to vote for Fateh (48%) compared to those who say they intend to vote for Hamas (33%).

An overwhelming majority of 88% describes conditions of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip as bad or very bad while only 40% describe conditions of Palestinians in the West Bank as bad or very bad. Similarly, only 25% describe conditions of democracy and human rights in the Gaza Strip, under Haniyeh’s government, as good or very good while 36% describe the same conditions in the West Bank, under Abbas, as good or very good. Despite this, 61% of the residents of the Gaza Strip, compared to only 48% of the residents of the West Bank, say they and their families feel these days that they are safe and secure. The percentage of those wishing to immigrate is much higher in the Gaza Strip (reaching 40%) than in the West Bank (standing at 25%).

Positive evaluation of the performance of Haniyeh’s government stands at 36% and positive evaluation of the performance of Fayyad’s government stands at 34%. These results are similar to those obtained in our last poll three months ago. In the Gaza Strip, positive evaluation of the performance of Haniyeh’s government stands today at 42% (compared to 32% in the West Bank), and in the West Bank, positive evaluation of the performance of Fayyad’s government stands today at 35% (compared to 33% in the Gaza Strip). 28% say that Haniyeh’s government is the legitimate one and 30% say Fayyad’s government is the legitimate one. 29% say both governments are not legitimate and 9% say both are legitimate. Three months ago, 33% said Fayyad’s government was the legitimate one while 27% said Haniyeh’s government was the legitimate one. Satisfaction with the performance of Abbas decreases slightly from 48% three months ago to 46% in this poll. Satisfaction with Abbas reaches 47% in the West Bank compared to 43% in the Gaza Strip.

With the recent deployment of Palestinian security forces in Hebron, the public is divided over the issue of capacity: 45% believe the new deployment will succeed in enforcing law and order while 48% believe it will not succeed. Belief regarding the goal of the Hebron security forces’ deployment is also split with 31% believing that the goal is to enforce law and order while an identical percentage believes that the goal is to disarm the resistance forces. 23% say the goal is to achieve both while 9% say the goal is neither.

 

(2) Peace Process   

  • 53% accept and 46% reject a mutual recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people; 48% think a majority of Palestinians support the mutual recognition while 38% think a majority of Israelis support it.

  • 66% support and 30% oppose the Saudi Initiative that calls for an Israeli withdrawal to the lines of 1967 in return for an Arab recognition of Israel and normalization of relations with it.

  • 72% would support reconciliation between the two peoples after reaching a peace agreement and establishing a Palestinian state recognized by Israel.

  • 41% accept and 57% reject a permanent settlement along the lines of the Clinton parameters and the Geneva Initiative. Support varies for the various elements with the highest level (55%) going to end of conflict and the lowest (27%) going to the demilitarization of the Palestinian state so that it would not have an army. 45% think a majority of Palestinians would accept such a settlement and 40% think a majority of Israelis would accept it.

  • 75% expect Palestinian-Israeli negotiations launched by the Annapolis process to fail and only 15% expect them to succeed.

  • 70% believe that the chances for the creation of an independent Palestinian state along side Israel in the next five years are slim to non-existent and 29% think chances are medium or high. 

  • 32% expect the Likud to win the next Israeli elections, 18% expect Kadima to win, and 18% expect Labor to win.

  • 47% expect the Israeli elections to have no impact on Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, 23% expect them to lead to cessation of negotiations, and 18% expect them to improve chances of success in the negotiations.

  • 48% support armed attacks against Israeli civilians inside Israel and 49% oppose such attacks.   

  • Three quarters (74%) support renewal of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip while 23% oppose the renewal.

Findings indicate that 53% support and 46% oppose a permanent settlement in which each side recognizes the national identity of the other with the Palestinians recognizing Israel as the state for the Jewish people and the Israelis recognizing the Palestinian state as the state for the Palestinian people after all issues of the conflict, including Jerusalem and refugees, have been resolved. Findings show that 48% think a majority of Palestinians support this recognition while 42% think a majority does not. 38% think a majority of Israelis support this mutual recognition and 49% think a majority of Israelis does not.

A majority of 66% support and 30% oppose the Saudi Initiative. The initiative calls for a full Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 borders, the resolution of the refugee problem in an agreed and just manner based on UN resolution 194, and the establishment of a Palestinian state. In return, the initiative calls for a recognition of Israel and its right to live in secure borders by all Arab states and the establishment of normal relations with it. After a permanent settlement is reached and a Palestinian state is established along side Israel, 72% would support reconciliation between the two peoples and 26% would oppose such reconciliation. These percentages are similar to those obtained during the last six months.

But support for a permanent settlement along the lines of the Clinton parameters and the Geneva Initiative drops from 47% last December to 41% in this poll. Opposition to the terms of this settlement stands today at 57%. Support for the various elements of the settlement varies from a high of 55% to the item related to end of conflict, followed by support for borders compromise (based on the 1967 borders with mutual and equal territorial exchange) receiving 54%, followed by the refugee solution (40%), Jerusalem as a capital for the Palestinian state after the annexation of its settlements to Israel as part of a territorial exchange (36%), followed by the terms of sovereignty and security arrangements (35%), and finally, the element related to the demilitarization of the Palestinian state so that it would not have an army (27%).

Public expectation for the chances of success of diplomacy is grim. Three quarters of the Palestinians expect the negotiations unleashed by the Annapolis process to fail and only 15% expect them to succeed. Similarly, 70% believe the chances for the creation of a Palestinian state in the next five years are slim to non-existent while only 29% think the chances are medium or high. The largest percentage (32%) expects the Likud to win the next Israeli elections. But 47% believe those elections will have no impact on Palestinian-Israeli negotiations while 23% expect them to lead to cessation of negotiations and 18% expect them to improve the chances for successful diplomacy.

Finally, findings show a decrease in the level of support for armed attacks against Israeli civilians inside Israel from 55% last June to 48% in this poll. Support for armed attacks against Israelis increase in the Gaza Strip (60%) compared to the West Bank (41%), among those who identify themselves as religious (54%) compared to those who identify themselves as somewhat religious (42%), among those opposed to the peace process (68%) compared to those who support the peace process (43%), among those whose age is between 18-27 (51%) compared to those whose age is over 47 (45%), among those who have a BA degree (50%) compared to the illiterates (37%), among students (54%) compared to employees (44%), and among those who would vote for Hamas (74%) compared to those who would vote for Fateh (39%).  Despite the support for violence among about half of the respondents, three quarters (74%) support renewal of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip while 23% oppose the renewal. Last September 81% of the Palestinians supported the ceasefire and 15% opposed it.

 

(3) Expectations from and attitudes toward the Obama administration

  • Only 29% expect a stronger American role in resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict now that Obama has been elected the next US president. 59% expect no change in the current US role as a result of Obama’s election.

  • 57% want a stronger American role under Obama in the peace process and 35% want the US not to intervene in that process.

  • If the US under the leadership of Obama played a stronger role in the peace process, such intervention would lead to a successful outcome in the view of 49%, but 30% expect such an intervention to lead to failure in the peace process.

  • 66% believe that if the US intervened strongly in the peace process, such intervention would benefit Israel more, 10% expect the Palestinians to benefit more, and 18% expect the two sides to benefit.

  • 56% expect the election of Obama to lead to a stronger American military, economic, and political support for Israel while 28% expect no change in US position, and only 7% expect US support to weaken.

  • If the Obama administration pressured the two sides to accept and implement the Saudi initiative, 56% think the Palestinian side should accept such an American intervention and 39% think the Palestinian side should reject it.

  •  If the Obama administration pressured the two sides to accept and implement a permanent settlement along the lines of the Clinton parameters and the Geneva initiative, 47% think the Palestinian side should accept such an American intervention and 49% think the Palestinian side should reject it.

Findings show that only 29% of the Palestinians expect a stoner role for the new Obama administration in the Palestinian-Israeli peace process while 59% expect to see no change in the current role of the US. 7% expect the US to play a weaker role. But findings indicate that most Palestinians (57%) want a stronger American role while 35% want a weaker role in the peace process. Only 4% want the new Obama administration to continue to play its current role. Support for a stronger American role in the peace process increases among women (60%) compared to men (54%), among the somewhat religious (61%) compared to the religious (54%), among supporters of the peace process (65%) compared to those opposed to the peace process (30%), among those whose age is over 47 (60%) compared to those between 18-27 years of age (53%), among illiterates (63%) compared to those who have a BA degree (56%), among housewives (61%) compared to students (53%), among Fateh voters (74%) compared to Hamas voters (38%), among those who are certain that such intervention would lead to a successful outcome (87%) compared to those who are certain it will lead to failure (25%), and among those who believe such intervention would benefit both sides (83%) compared to those who think Israel would benefit more (48).

Half of the Palestinians (49%) believe that if the US intervened strongly in the peace process, the process would succeed while 30% expect it to fail. 16% expect American intervention to have no impact. But findings show that two thirds of the Palestinians (66%) believe Israel will benefit more from the American intervention while 18% expect the two sides to benefit, and only 10% expect the Palestinians to benefit. In this regard, 56% expect US military, economic and political support for Israel to increase after Obama’s elections while 28% expect no change in US support for Israel and 7% expect a decrease in US support.

If the Obama administration decided to pressure the Palestinian and Israeli sides to accept and implement the Saudi Initiative, 56% believe the Palestinians should accept such intervention and 39% believe they should not. Half of the Palestinians (49%) expect a majority of Israelis to accept this American pressure while 43% expect a majority of Israelis to reject it. If the Obama administration decided to pressure the two sides to accept and implement a permanent settlement along the lines of the Clinton parameters and the Geneva Initiative, Palestinian acceptance of American pressure would decrease to 47% while 49% would reject it. 56% of the Palestinians believe a majority of Israelis would accept such American pressure and 36% believe a majority of Israelis would reject it.

Support for accepting American pressure on both sides to accept and implement a permanent settlement along the lines of the Clinton parameters and the Geneva Initiative increases in cities (50%) compared to refugee camps (37%), among men (53%) compared to women (41%), among those who are somewhat religious (51%) compared to those who are religious (43%), among supporters of the peace process (50%) compared to those opposed to the peace process (35%), among those whose age is over 47 (52%) compared to those whose age is between 18-27 (42%), among non refugees (49%) compared to refugees (44%), among those who have a BA degree (54%) compared to illiterates (40%), and among Fateh voters (60%) compared to Hamas voters (31%).

 
 

PSR Poll No. 30

3-5 December 2008

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

00 )

From among the following satellite news stations, which one you watched most during the last two months?

 

1) Al Arabia

10.0

10.0

10.0

 

2) Al Jazeera

50.3

57.6

37.6

 

3) Al Hurra

0.2

0.1

0.4

 

4) Al Manar

3.4

4.5

1.6

 

5) Palestine TV

11.1

7.8

16.7

 

6) Al-Aqsa TV

13.1

7.9

22.3

 

7) Do not watch TV

8.0

7.6

8.7

 

8) Others

2.0

2.4

1.3

 

9) Do not have a dish

1.7

1.9

1.3

 

9) No Opinion/Don’t know

0.2

0.2

0.2

 

 

 

 

 

01)

In general, how would you describe conditions of the Palestinians in the Palestinian areas in Gaza Strip these days?

 

1) Very good

1.1

1.2

0.9

 

2) Good

4.6

4.9

4.1

 

3) So so

5.8

5.8

6.0

 

4) Bad

32.5

34.4

29.3

 

5) Very bad

55.1

52.4

59.8

 

6) DK/NA

0.9

1.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

02)

In general, how would you describe conditions of the Palestinians in the Palestinian areas in the West Bank these days?

 

1) Very good

5.2

3.7

7.6

 

2) Good

21.2

19.0

25.0

 

3) So so

31.1

34.6

25.0

 

4) Bad

26.8

28.4

24.1

 

5) Very bad

13.5

14.1

12.5

 

6) DK/NA

2.2

0.1

5.8

 

 

 

 

 

03)

Generally, do you see yourself as:

 

1) Religious

50.1

45.7

57.7

 

2) Somewhat religious

46.7

50.4

40.3

 

3) Not religious

3.1

3.7

2.0

 

4) DK/NA

0.1

0.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

04)

Generally, do you see yourself as:

 

1) Supportive of the peace process

68.5

65.4

73.9

 

2) Opposed to the peace process

17.1

18.0

15.6

 

3) Between support and opposition

13.7

15.9

9.9

 

4) DK/NA

0.7

0.7

0.7

 

 

 

 

 

05)

Do you think that there is corruption in PA institutions under the control of President Abu Mazin?

 

1) Yes 

68.4

69.2

66.9

 

2) No 

19.4

17.1

23.5

 

3) DK/NA

12.2

13.7

9.7

 

 

 

 

 

06)

If yes, will this corruption in PA institutions under the control of President Abu Mazin increase, decrease or remain as it is in the future?

 

1) Will increase   

55.6

59.8

47.9

 

2) Will remain as it is

14.6

15.0

13.8

 

3) will decrease

22.9

18.8

30.3

 

4) DK/NA

7.0

6.5

7.9

 

 

 

 

 

07)

How would you evaluate the current status of democracy and human rights in the Palestinian Authority under Abu Mazin? Would you say it is:

 

1) Very good 

6.4

4.8

9.1

 

2) Good 

29.8

29.2

30.8

 

3) neither bad nor good

21.4

22.2

20.0

 

4) Bad

23.4

24.1

22.2

 

5) Very bad

15.5

15.3

15.8

 

6) DK/NA

3.6

4.5

2.2

 

 

 

 

 

08)

How would you evaluate the current status of democracy and human rights in the Gaza Strip under Ismail Hanyieh government? Would you say it is:

 

1) Very good 

5.0

3.4

7.7

 

2) Good 

19.9

17.4

24.3

 

3) Fair

17.1

15.9

19.3

 

4) Bad

25.5

28.4

20.6

 

5) Very bad

23.5

21.9

26.2

 

6) DK/NA

8.9

13.0

1.9

 

 

 

 

 

09)

Would you say that these days your security and safety, and that of your family, is assured or not assured?

 

1) Completely assured

6.8

2.4

14.5

 

2) Assured

46.3

46.0

46.9

 

3) Not assured  

39.9

43.6

33.3

 

4) Not assured at all 

6.6

7.4

5.3

 

5) DK/NA

0.4

0.7

 0.0

 

 

 

 

 

10)

Do current political, security, and economic conditions lead you to seek emigration abroad?

 

1) Certainly seek to emigration

12.4

7.0

21.8

 

2) Seek emigration

18.2

18.4

17.7

 

3) Do not seek emigration

31.9

35.0

26.6

 

4) Certainly do not seek emigration

37.5

39.6

33.9

 

5) DK/NA

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

 

 

 

 

11)

Tell us how do you evaluate the performance of the dismissed government of Ismail Haniyeh in the Gaza Strip? Is it good or bad?

 

1) Very Good

9.5

7.8

12.4

 

2) Good

26.2

24.3

29.4

 

3) Neither good nor bad

20.2

19.5

21.4

 

4) Bad

24.9

25.9

23.1

 

5) Very Bad

10.8

9.4

13.3

 

6) No Opinion/Don’t know

8.5

13.1

0.4

 

 

 

 

 

12)

Tell us how do you evaluate the performance of the government headed by Salam Fayyad? Is it good or bad?

 

1) Very Good

6.4

5.6

7.7

 

2) Good

27.8

29.0

25.6

 

3) Neither good nor bad

23.6

23.2

24.2

 

4) Bad

23.2

22.1

25.2

 

5) Very Bad

10.7

10.2

11.7

 

6) No Opinion/Don’t know

8.3

9.9

5.6

13)

Are you satisfied or not satisfied with the performance of Mahmud Abbas since his election as president of the PA?

 

1) Very satisfied

6.0

5.4

6.9

 

2) Satisfied

39.6

41.8

35.7

 

3) Not satisfied 

35.2

33.5

38.3

 

4) not satisfied at all

15.0

13.7

17.1

 

5) DK/NA

4.3

5.6

1.9

 

 

 

 

 

14)

If new presidential elections are to take place today, and Mahmud Abbas was nominated by Fateh and Ismail Haniyeh was nominated by Hamas, whom would you vote for?

 

1) Mahmud Abbas

47.5

48.2

46.4

 

2) Ismail Haniyeh

38.3

36.2

41.5

 

3 DK/NA

14.2

15.6

12.0

 

 

 

 

 

15)

And if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti representing Fateh and Ismail Haniyeh representing Hamas, whom would you vote for?

 

1) Marwan Barghouti

58.6

61.7

53.7

 

2) Ismail Haniyeh

32.4

28.2

39.2

 

3) No Opinion/ Don’t know

8.9

10.1

7.1

 

 

 

 

 

17)

If new elections agreed to by all factions are held today and the same lists that took part in the last PLC elections were nominated, for whom would you vote?

 

1) alternative

1.9

1.6

2.2

 

2) independent Palestine

2.2

2.9

1.1

 

3) Abu Ali Mustafa

2.8

3.3

1.9

 

4) Abu al Abbas

0.7

1.2

 0.0

 

5) freedom and social justice

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

6) change and reform

28.1

25.2

32.4

 

7) national coalition for justice and democracy

0.3

 0.0

0.8

 

8) third way

1.3

1.9

0.5

 

9) freedom and independence

0.5

0.9

0.0

 

10) Palestinian justice

0.3

0.6

 0.0

 

11) Fateh

41.5

38.6

45.9

 

12) none of the above/ DK/NA

20.4

23.8

15.1

 

 

 

 

 

18)

After the separation between Gaza and the West Bank, Hamas and the government of Ismail Haniyeh remained in power in Gaza and considered itself the legitimate government while president Abu Mazin formed a new government headed by Salam Fayyad and it too considered itself legitimate. What about you, which of the two government you consider legitimate, the government of Haniyeh or the government of Abu Mazin and Fayyad?

 

1) Haniyehs’ government is the legitimate one

28.1

26.2

31.4

 

2) Abu Mazin’s and Fayyad government is the legitimate one

29.5

28.1

32.0

 

3) Both governments are legitimate

8.5

9.0

7.4

 

4) Both governments are not legitimate

28.9

30.4

26.2

 

5) DK/NA

5.1

6.3

3.0

 

 

 

 

 

19)

Hamas says that the term of PA president ends four years after the date of his election as stated by the Basic Law and that it will not recognize his legitimacy after the end of the term. The PA on the other hand says that the term of the current president extends to five, not four, years being an exceptional case as stated by the Election Law. When in your view does the term of President Mahmud Abbas end?

 

1) four years after his election, i.e., January 2009

64.1

65.3

62.0

 

2) five years after his election, i.e., in January 2010

24.3

21.2

29.8

 

3) DK/NA

11.6

13.6

8.2

 

 

 

 

 

20)

If you believe that the term of the PA president ends in January 2009, who in your view should be the president of the PA after this date?

 

1) PLC Speaker

14.5

9.5

24.4

 

2) Abbas should stay president

7.1

7.3

6.6

 

3) new elections should be conducted

72.4

76.0

65.3

 

4) other

1.7

2.2

0.7

 

5) DK/NA

4.3

5.0

2.9

 

 

 

 

 

21)

And what if Fateh-Hamas reconciliation completely failed, would you in this case support holding legislative and presidential elections in the West Bank while postponing elections in the Gaza Strip until after reconciliation is achieved?

 

1) certainly support it

6.7

6.4

7.1

 

2) support it

33.6

38.7

24.9

 

3) oppose it

41.5

39.0

45.9

 

4) Certainly oppose it

14.9

11.1

21.4

 

5) DK/NA

3.3

4.8

0.7

 

 

 

 

 

22)

President Mahmud Abbas and Fateh blamed Hamas for the failure of the national dialogue which was planned to take place in Cairo last month while Hamas said it boycotted the dialogue because of the arrest of its members by the PA in the West Bank. Who in your view is responsible for the failure of the Fateh-Hamas dialogue and reconciliation: Fateh and president Abbas or Hamas?

 

1) Fateh and president Abbas

20.4

19.2

22.5

 

2) Hamas

22.5

19.4

28.0

 

3) both

45.6

47.6

42.1

 

4) neither one 

3.2

3.3

3.1

 

5) others

1.7

2.2

0.9

 

6) DK/NA

6.5

8.3

3.4

 

 

 

 

 

22b)

President Mahmud Abbas announced that if reconciliation between Fateh and Hamas fails, he will call for simultaneous presidential and legislative elections early next year. Do you support or oppose his call?

 

1) strongly support

15.6

11.2

23.1

 

2) support

57.5

61.6

50.3

 

3) oppose

18.3

18.7

17.7

 

4) strongly oppose 

5.5

4.7

6.9

 

5) DK/NA

3.1

3.8

2.0

 

 

 

 

 

23)

In your view, what is the main reason for Hamas’s boycott of the dialogue and reconciliation meeting in Cairo last month?

 

1) arrest of its members in the West Bank

29.9

26.7

35.6

 

2) External pressure on Hamas

26.0

25.7

26.4

 

3) due to Egyptian tilt in favor of Fateh against Hamas

9.8

10.7

8.3

 

4) due to divisions inside Hamas

17.2

16.4

18.7

 

5) others, specify

4.4

5.3

2.7

 

6) DK/NA

12.6

15.2

8.2

 

 

 

 

 

24)

In your view who is responsible for the continued split of the PA between Gaza and the West Bank, Fateh or Hamas?

 

1) Hamas

19.4

17.0

23.7

 

2) Fateh

17.6

16.0

20.3

 

3) both

54.9

57.3

50.9

 

4) None of them

3.3

4.0

2.0

 

5) others, specify

2.2

2.4

1.8

 

6) DK/NA

2.6

3.3

1.3

 

 

 

 

 

25)

The Palestinian Authority has deployed a security force in Hebron, do you think the presence of this force will lead to:

 

1) will lead to enforcement of law and order and will deliver safety to residents

45.2

46.7

42.5

 

2) will not lead to enforcement of law and order and will not deliver safety to residents

47.7

46.5

49.9

 

3) DK/NA

7.1

6.8

7.6

 

 

 

 

 

26)

In your view, what is the goal behind deploying the Palestinian security force in Hebron?

 

1) enforce law and order

31.4

31.6

31.0

 

2) disarm resistance groups

31.2

27.0

38.4

 

3) both of the above

22.8

24.0

20.8

 

4) none of them

8.7

10.9

4.9

 

5) DK/NA

6.0

6.6

4.9

 

 

 

 

 

27)

If Egypt succeeded in reconciling Fateh and Hamas and early legislative and presidential elections were held in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, which of the following issues will dominate the thinking of the voters and will have an influence on the election results?

 

1) fighting corruption

12.1

14.4

8.1

 

2) continuation of the armed struggle against occupation

7.5

8.6

5.6

 

3) continuation of the peace process

7.6

8.8

5.5

 

4) ending the siege and improving living conditions

39.0

34.2

47.3

 

5) unification of the West Bank and Gaza and achieving national unity

29.3

28.2

31.1

 

6) DK/NA

2.2

2.7

1.3

 

7)other

2.3

2.9

1.1

 

 

28)

Now, after six months have passed since the ceasefire went into effect in the Gaza Strip, do you support or oppose its continuation?

 

1) certainly support

14.0

13.1

15.5

 

2) support

60.3

64.4

53.0

 

3) oppose

19.8

16.6

25.4

 

4) certainly oppose

3.4

2.2

5.7

 

5) DK/NA

2.5

3.7

0.4

 

 

 

 

 

29)

There is a proposal that after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the settlemnet of all issues in dispute, including the refugees and Jerusalem issues, there will be a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinians people. Do you agree or disagree to this proposal?

 

1) Definitely agree

7.4

8.3

5.8

 

2) agree

45.1

47.0

41.8

 

3) disagree

33.2

32.6

34.3

 

4) definitely disagree

12.6

9.9

17.4

 

5) DK/NA

1.7

2.3

0.7

 

 

 

 

 

30)

And what is the Palestinian majority opinion on this issue? Do most Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza support or oppose the recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people at the end of the peace process?

 

1) Majority supports

47.9

51.3

41.9

 

2) Majority opposes

41.8

38.8

47.0

 

3) DK/NA

10.3

9.9

11.1

 

 

 

 

 

31)

And what is the Israeli majority opinion on this issue? Do most Israelis support or oppose the recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people at the end of the peace process?

 

1) Majority supports

38.3

35.7

42.9

 

2) Majority opposes

49.4

50.8

47.1

 

3) DK/NA

12.3

13.5

10.0

 

 

 

 

 

32)

Now 40 years after the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, what in your view are the chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state next to the state of Israel in the next five years? Are they high, medium, low, or none existent?

 

1) None existent

34.6

37.2

30.2

 

2) Low

34.9

34.3

36.0

 

3) Medium

23.9

21.4

28.3

 

4) High

4.8

5.3

4.0

 

5) DK/NA

1.8

1.9

1.6

 

 

 

 

33)

Now following Obama’s election for presidency in the US, I would like to ask you a few questions on the expected US policy regarding the Arab-Israeli conflict:

Some people expect a strong American role in trying to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, including pressure on both sides to the conflict to compromise important national interests. What do you expect to happen?

 

1) The US will now lay a stronger role

29.0

28.7

29.5

 

2) The US will play a weaker role

7.4

6.7

8.6

 

3) US role will not change

59.0

59.4

58.3

 

4) DK/NA

4.6

5.1

3.6

 

 

 

 

 

34)

What do you want president Obama to do? Do you want him to play a stronger role in the Palestinian-Israeli peace process or do you want him not to intervene in the peace process?

 

1) I want a stronger role for the US in the peace process

57.0

58.1

55.2

 

2) I want the US to continue to play its current role in the peace process

3.8

3.0

5.3

 

3) I want the US not to intervene in the peace process

34.9

33.6

37.1

 

4) DK/NA

4.3

5.4

2.3

 

 

 

 

 

35)

If the US under president Obama plays a strong role in the peace process, do you think this would bring about a successful or failed Palestinian-Israeli peace process?

 

1) Certainly will lead to successful process

19.7

17.0

24.5

 

2) Think it will lead to successful process

29.6

32.6

24.3

 

3) Will not have an impact

15.6

15.8

15.2

 

4) Think it will lead to failed process

21.1

18.8

25.2

 

5) Certainly will lead to failed process

8.6

9.7

6.8

 

6) DK/NA

5.4

6.2

4.1

 

 

 

 

 

36)

Who in your opinion would benefit more if the US intervened strongly in the Palestinian-Israeli peace process, Israel or the Palestinians?

 

1) Israel

65.9

65.0

67.5

 

2) Palestinians

10.2

10.5

9.7

 

3) Neither side

3.8

3.8

3.8

 

4) Both sides

17.8

17.8

17.6

 

5) DK/NA

2.4

3.0

1.4

 

 

 

 

 

37)

In your opinion will the US military economic and political support of Israel change?

 

1) The US support will weaken

6.7

6.4

7.4

 

2) The US support will strengthen

56.4

55.4

58.1

 

3) The US support will not change

28.9

29.1

28.6

 

4) DK/NA

7.9

9.1

5.9

 

 

 

 

 

38)

According to the Saudi plan, Israel will retreat from all territories occupied in 1967 including Gaza the West Bank, Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, and a Palestinian state will be established. The refugees problem will be resoved through negotiation in a just and agreed upon manner and in accordance with UN resolution 194 which allows return of refugees to Israel and compensation. In return, all Arab states will recognize Israel and its right to secure borders, will sign peace treaties with her and establish normal diplomatic relations.  Do you agree or disagree to this plan?

 

1) Certainly agree

9.2

8.5

10.6

 

2) agree

56.7

54.2

61.2

 

3) disagree

22.6

26.7

15.5

 

4) Certainly disagree

7.8

6.1

10.8

 

5) DK/NA

3.6

4.5

2.0

 

 

 

 

 

39)

If the US under president Obama decides to pressure the Palestinians and the Israeli sides to accept and implement the Arab or Saudi Peace Initiative, do you think the Palestinian side should accept or reject this American intervention

 

1) Accept

56.0

55.2

57.5

 

2) Reject

39.1

38.7

39.7

 

3) DK/NA

4.9

6.1

2.9

 

 

 

 

 

40)

What in your opinion will be the attitude of most Israelis to such American intervention – would they accept or reject it?

 

1) Accept

49.2

46.0

54.9

 

2) Reject

43.0

45.5

38.6

 

3) DK/NA

7.8

8.5

6.5

 

 

 

 

 

41)

When Palestinians and Israelis return to final status negotiations the following items might be presented to negotiators as the elements of a permanent compromise settlement. Tell us what you think of each item then tell us what you think of all combined as one permanent status settlement

1. An Israeli withdrawal from all of the Gaza Strip and the evacuation of its settlements. But in the West Bank, Israel withdraws and evacuates settlements from most of it, with the exception of few settlement areas in less than 3% of the West Bank that would be exchanged with an equal amount of territory from Israel in accordance with the attached map {show map}.

2. An independent Palestinian state would be established in the areas from which Israel withdraws in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip; the Palestinian state will have no army, but it will have a strong security force but an international multinational force would be deployed to insure the safety and security of the state. Both sides will be committed to end all forms of violence directed against each other.

3. East Jerusalem would become the capital of the Palestinian state with Arab neighborhoods coming under Palestinian sovereignty and Jewish neighborhoods coming under Israel sovereignty. The Old City (including al Haram al Sharif) would come under Palestinian sovereignty with the exception of the Jewish Quarter and the Wailing Wall that will come under Israeli sovereignty.

4. With regard to the refugee question, both sides agree that the solution will be based on UN resolutions 194 and 242 and on the Arab peace initiative. The refugees will be given five choices for permanent residency. These are: the Palestinian state and the Israeli areas transferred to the Palestinian state in the territorial exchange mentioned above; no restrictions would be imposed on refugee return to these two areas. Residency in the other three areas (in host countries, third countries, and Israel) would be subject to the decision of the states in those areas. The number of refugees returning to Israel will be based on the average number of refugees admitted to third countries like Australia, Canada, Europe, and others. All refugees will be entitled to compensation for their "refugeehood" and loss of properties.

5. When the permanent status agreement is fully implemented, it will mean the end of the conflict and no further claims will be made by either side. The parties will recognize Palestine and Israel as the homelands of their respective peoples 6. The Palestinian state will have sovereignty over its land, water, and airspace. But Israeli will be allowed to use the Palestinian airspace for training purposes, and will maintain two early warning stations in the West Bank for 15 years. The multinational force will remain in the Palestinian state for an indefinite period of time and its responsibility will be to insure the implementation of the agreement, and to monitor territorial borders and coast of the Palestinian state including its international border crossings.

Now that you have been informed of each element of the permanent compromise settlement, tell us what you think of each of its item. Do you agree or disagree with it.

41-1)

Item #1: withdrawal to 1967  borders with territorial swap

 

1) Strongly agree

4.3

3.9

5.1

 

2) Agree

50.1

49.3

51.4

 

3) Disagree

31.5

33.8

27.5

 

4) Strongly Disagree

12.1

10.7

14.6

 

5) No Opinion /Don’t Know

1.9

2.3

1.4

 

 

41-2)

Item #2: a state without an army but with international forces

 

1) Strongly agree

1.2

1.1

1.3

 

2) Agree

25.5

28.1

21.1

 

3) Disagree

53.7

52.3

56.1

 

4) Strongly Disagree

18.8

17.3

21.5

 

5) No Opinion /Don’t Know

0.8

1.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

41-3)

Item #3: East Jerusalem as capital of the state of Palestine after it is divided

 

1) Strongly agree

1.0

0.8

1.2

 

2) Agree

34.7

37.5

29.8

 

3) Disagree

45.6

44.2

48.1

 

4) Strongly Disagree

17.7

16.5

19.9

 

5) No Opinion /Don’t Know

1.0

1.0

0.9

 

 

 

 

 

41-4)

Item #4: refugees with five options for permanent residence

 

1) Strongly agree

1.9

1.0

3.5

 

2) Agree

37.7

38.6

36.2

 

3) Disagree

42.6

43.3

41.3

 

4) Strongly Disagree

15.4

13.9

18.1

 

5) No Opinion /Don’t Know

2.3

3.2

0.9

 

 

 

 

 

41-5)

Item #5: end of conflict

 

1) Strongly agree

4.8

4.4

5.4

 

2) Agree

50.2

53.5

44.4

 

3) Disagree

31.4

30.7

32.7

 

4) Strongly Disagree

12.6

9.9

17.3

 

5) No Opinion /Don’t Know

1.0

1.4

0.2

 

 

 

 

 

 41-6)

Item #6: a sovereign state with security arrangements

 

1) Strongly agree

2.4

1.8

3.5

 

2) Agree

32.5

31.5

34.3

 

3) Disagree

46.4

49.5

41.0

 

4) Strongly Disagree

17.1

15.1

20.8

 

5) No Opinion /Don’t Know

1.5

2.1

0.5

 

 

 

 

 

41-7)

Item #7: the combined elements as one permanent status settlement

 

1) Strongly agree

1.3

0.9

2.2

 

2) Agree

39.7

39.8

39.6

 

3) Disagree

42.7

44.2

40.1

 

4) Strongly Disagree

14.7

13.0

17.7

 

5) No Opinion /Don’t Know

1.5

2.1

0.5

 

 

 

 

 

42)

And what is the Palestinian majority opinion on this combined package for a permanent status settlement?  Do most Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza support or oppose this combined final status package?

 

1) Majority supports

45.0

43.7

47.3

 

2) Majority opposes

46.0

46.4

45.3

 

3) DK/NA

9.0

9.9

7.5

 

 

 

 

 

43)

And what is the Israeli majority opinion on this combined package for a permanent status settlement?  Do most Israelis support or oppose this combined final status package?

 

1) Majority supports

40.1

38.8

42.3

 

2) Majority opposes

48.0

49.4

45.5

 

3) DK/NA

12.0

11.8

12.2

 

 

 

 

 

44)

If the US under president Obama decides to pressure the Palestinians and the Israeli sides to accept and implement this compromise permanent settlement as outlined above in the six items, do you think the Palestinian side should accept or reject this American intervention?

 

1) Accept

46.5

46.7

46.3

 

2) Reject

48.5

47.5

50.2

 

3) DK/NA

5.0

5.9

3.5

 

 

 

 

 

45)

What in your opinion will be the attitude of most Israelis to such American intervention – would they accept or reject it?

 

1) Accept

55.5

52.8

60.0

 

2) Reject

36.4

38.8

32.2

 

3) DK/NA

8.2

8.4

7.8

 

 

 

 

 

49) 

If a peace agreement is reached, and a Palestinian state is established and recognized by Israel, would you support or oppose the efforts to reach full reconciliation between Israel and the Palestinian state?

 

1) Would strongly support

8.7

8.2

9.7

 

2) Would support

63.4

66.0

58.9

 

3) Would oppose

19.0

18.1

20.6

 

4) Would strongly oppose

7.3

5.7

10.2

 

5) DK/NA

1.5

2.1

0.6

 

 

 

 

 

50)

And what are your expectations regarding the chances for the success or failure of the negotiations launched by Annapolis conference? Will it succeed or fail in ending Israeli occupation?

 

1) certainly will succeed

1.2

0.8

2.0

 

2) will succeed

13.9

13.7

14.4

 

3) will fail

49.8

52.4

45.3

 

4) certainly will fail

25.3

21.2

32.5

 

5) DK/NA

9.7

12.0

5.8

 

 

 

 

 

51)

Concerning armed attacks against Israeli civilians inside Israel, I….

 

1) Strongly support

13.9

9.1

22.1

 

2) Support

34.2

32.3

37.6

 

3) Oppose

41.9

46.1

34.5

 

4) Strongly oppose

7.3

8.5

5.1

 

5) DK/NA

2.8

4.0

0.7

 

 

 

 

 

52)

Israel will hold elections for the Knesset after about two months. Which party you think will be the largest in the next Israeli Knesset?

 

1) The Likud under Benjamin Netanyahu

31.5

32.6

29.5

 

2) Kadima under Tsibi Livni

18.2

18.8

17.1

 

3) Labor under Ehud Barak

18.4

17.7

19.7

 

4) Other, specify

0.7

0.6

0.9

 

5) DK/NA

31.1

30.2

32.8

 

 

 

 

 

53)

In your view, what impact these Israeli elections will have on the current Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and the chances for reaching an agreement?

 

1) will lead to cessation of negotiations and no agreement will be reached

23.4

25.2

20.1

 

2) Will have no impact on negotiations or the chances to reach an agreement

47.1

45.8

49.4

 

3) will enhance the chances to reach a Palestinian-Israeli agreement

17.5

15.5

20.9

 

4) DK/NA

12.0

13.5

9.6

 

 

 

 

 

54)

What do you expect to happen between Palestinians and Israelis, now that Barack Obama has been elected as president of the US?

 

1) Negotiations will resume soon enough and armed confrontations will stop

15.4

15.8

14.7

 

2) Negotiations will resume but some armed attacks will continue

45.4

41.7

51.7

 

3) Armed confrontations will not stop and the two sides will not return to negotiations

30.6

32.8

26.6

 

4) DK/NA

8.7

9.7

6.9

 

 

 

 

 

55)

Which of the following political parties do you support?

 

1) PPP

1.0

1.0

1.1

 

2) PFLP

3.9

4.1

3.7

 

3) Fateh

31.7

29.8

35.1

 

4) Hamas

20.4

17.0

26.1

 

5) DFLP

0.1

0.1

0.2

 

6) Islamic Jihad

1.5

1.5

1.4

 

7) Fida

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

8) National Initiative (Mubadara)

1.0

1.5

0.2

 

9) Independent Islamists

2.6

2.1

3.6

 

10) Independent Nationalists

4.0

5.0

2.3

 

11) None of the above

32.9

37.1

25.8

 

12) Other, specify

0.7

0.9

0.4

This PSR survey was conducted with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ramallah

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