PSR - Survey Research Unit: Public Opinion Poll # 32
PSR poll 31 full analysis

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (32)

 

While Abbas’s popularity improves and while a majority of Palestinians accepts Fateh’s position that a national unity government must accept agreements signed with Israel, and while a majority supports the two-state solution, pessimism prevails regarding the future of the peace process and the chances for Fateh-Hamas reconciliation

 

21-23 May 2009   

 These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 21 and 23 May 2009. The poll was conducted in the aftermath of the failure of the latest round of Palestinian reconciliation talks in Cairo and the formation of a new government headed by Salam Fayyad and after the meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with US president Barak Obama in Washington DC. The poll examines the following topics: domestic issues such as the balance of power, the performance and legitimacy of two governments, that of Ismail Haniyeh and Salam Fayyad, confidence in the police, the effects of the continued conflict between Fateh and Hamas, as well as the various issues of the peace process such as the support for the two-state vs. the one-state solutions. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%. This press release covers domestic Palestinian issues; issues related to the peace process and Israeli-Palestinian relations will be covered in a separate joint Palestinian-Israeli press release. For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

 

Table of contents:

 1) Domestic Palestinian Conditions

2) Peace Process

3) Main Findings in numbers

 

Main Findings:

Findings of the second quarter of 2009 show a stable balance of power between Fateh and Hamas compared to the situation in the first quarter. Abbas’s popularity increases slightly in comparison to that of Haniyeh. Findings also show that most Palestinians have no confidence in the ability of Fateh and Hamas to reach a reconciliation agreement. In this regard, the public tend to support Hamas’s position on what kind of electoral system should be adopted but the majority supports Fateh’s position on the government platform issue. Findings show a split regarding the new Fayyad government with a larger percentage opposing its formation. Findings show that public evaluation of the performance of various actors during the Gaza war clearly favors Hams and those who support it, like Iran and Syria, while Fateh, Abbas, Fayyad’s government, and Egypt receive lower positive evaluation ratings.

With regard to the peace process, findings indicate a continued state of widespread pessimism regarding the chances for establishing a Palestinian state in the next five years and regarding the chances for a permanent peace agreement with the Netanyahu government. But despite this pessimism, a majority still supports the two-state solution while less than a quarter supports the one-state solution. Pessimism however is reflected sharply in two major issues. Support for launching rockets from the Gaza Strip against Israeli communities across the border increases considerably among the pessimists and decreases among the optimists.  Similarly, a larger percentage among the pessimists tends to view positively an Iranian attainment of nuclear weapons while the opposite is true among the optimists.

 

(1) Domestic Palestinian Conditions

  • 42% support the formation of the new Salam Fayyad government and 48% oppose it
  • 55% are worried that they or members of their families might be harmed by other Palestinians and 44% are not worried
  • 46% support a mixed electoral system as proposed by Hamas and 39% support a fully proportional system as proposed by Fateh; but 50% support Fateh’s position that the program of national unity government must accept all previous agreement signed between Israel and the PLO while 44% support Hamas’s position which rejects this condition
  • If new presidential elections are held today, Abbas would receive 49% of the vote and Haniyeh 44%, and if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Haniyeh, the former would receive 64% and the latter 32%
  • Fateh receives the support of 41% of potential voters, Hamas 33%, all other electoral lists 9%, and 18% remain undecided; public estimates of the likely outcome of elections are similar with 39% saying Fateh would win and 28% saying Hamas would win
  • 41% believe that the performance of Haniyeh’s government is good or very good and 32% say the performance of Fayyad’s government is good or very good
  • 33% believe that Fateh’s Sixth Congress will be held in July as announced while 42% say it will be postponed and 14% say it will never be held
  • 13% say they have been have been attacked or robbed by other Palestinians during the past year, and among those 43% say they have submitted a complaint while 56% say they have not

 

Findings indicate that the pubic is divided with regard to the formation of the new Fayyad government with a larger percentage (48%) opposing its formation and 42% supporting it. Opposition increases slightly in the Gaza Strip (51%) compared to the West Bank (46%), in cities (53%) compared to refugee camps (49%) and villages and towns (43%), among men (52%) compared to women (44%), among holders of BA degree (56%) compared to illiterates (30%), among those working in the private sector (55%) compared to those working in the public sector (42%), among those opposed to the peace process (77%) compared to those who support the peace process (36%), and among Hamas supporters (78%) compared to Fateh supporters (17%).

 

Findings also indicate that the conflict between Fateh and Hamas is causing anxiety among the majority with 55% saying that they are worried that they or members of their family might be harmed by other Palestinians from Fateh or Hamas and 44% saying they are not worried. The level of worry increases in the Gaza Strip, reaching 65% compared to50% in the West Bank.  In the Gaza Strip, worry among supporters of Fateh reaches 74% compared to 48% among supporters of Hamas. In the West Bank, worry among supporters of Hamas reaches 56% compared to 48% among supporters of Fateh.  Findings also indicate that the overwhelming majority (90%) believes that the price of Fateh-Hamas conflict is high or unbearable while only 10% say it is medium or bearable. Moreover, 60% believe that Palestinian society can endure the price of division between Fateh and Hamas for less than a year or for few years while 8% say it can endure it for a period between 5-10 years, and 23% say it can endure it forever.  Only 25% believe that Fateh’s goal is to integrate Hamas into the political system while avoiding international siege and boycott while 32% say its goal is destroy Hamas’s political, military, financial and social power; 21% say the goal of Fateh is to insure Hamas’s participation in some public institutions as long as it does not pose a threat to Fateh’s dominance, and 16% say its goal is to keep Hamas outside the Palestinian political system. With regard to Hamas’s goal, 38% say it is to integrate itself into the political system on the basis of equality with Fateh and other factions and 29% say the goal is destroy Fateh’s political, military, financial, and social power; 12% say the goal of Hamas is to control the Palestinian political system and marginalize Fateh and other forces, and anther 12% say the goal is to control the Palestinian political system and eliminate Fateh politically.

 

Findings also indicate the 60% believe that neither Fateh nor Hamas are able to unilaterally settle the conflict in its favor by military or political means and therefore they need dialogue while 22% say that the conflict between the two factions can not be settled unilaterally or even through dialogue. But the largest percentage (56%) believes that dialogue between Fateh and Hamas will fail and only 40% believe it will succeed. In light of this, 27% believe that unity between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip will never resume while only 19% believe it will resume soon. A majority of 51% believes that unity will resume but only after a long time. In our September 2007 poll, only 20% believed that separation between the two Palestinian territories will become permanent and 29% believed unity will be resumed within months.

 

With regard to the debate between Fateh and Hamas on the terms of reconciliation, 46% tend to support Hamas’s position on the electoral system, preferring a mixed one as proposed by Hamas while 39% tend to support Fateh’s position, preferring a fully proportional representation system as proposed by Fateh. By contrast, 50% support Fateh’s position which insists that the program of national unity government must accept all previous agreement signed between Israel and the PLO while 44% tend to support Hamas’s position which rejects this condition.

 

Findings show that Abbas’s popularity improves slightly. If new presidential elections were held today and the two candidates were Mahmud Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh, the former receives 49% of the vote and the latter 44%. In the Gaza Strip Abbas wins with 53% of the vote compared to 42% for Haniyeh. Three months ago, Abbas received 45% and Haniyeh 47%. It is worth noting that immediately after Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip in mid 2007, 59% said they would vote for Abbas and only 36% said they would vote for Haniyeh.  But if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Haniyeh, the former wins the presidency with 64% of the vote compared to 32% for Haniyeh. These results are similar to those we obtained three months ago and those obtained in September 2007 after the Hamas violent takeover of the Gaza Strip.  

 

42% say that Abbas is the legitimate president today and 43% say they are satisfied with his performance while 54% say they are dissatisfied. 41% describe the performance of Haniyeh’s government as good or very good while 32% describe the performance of Fayyad’s government as good or very good. However, only 10% describe conditions of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip as good or very good while 31% describe conditions in the West Bank as good or very good.

 

If legislative elections were to take place today with the participation of all the lists that participated in the last elections, 33% say they would vote for the Reform and Change list of Hamas while 41% say they would vote for Fateh. All other lists would receive 9% while 18% remain undecided. Vote for Fateh and Hamas is identical with that registered three months ago. In the Gaza Strip, Hamas’s popularity stands at 35% compared to 46% for Fateh. In the West Bank, Hamas stands at 31% compared to 37% for Fateh. With regard to public expectations of election results, 39% say Fateh will win and 28% say Hamas will win. 

 

With regard to the performance of various actors during the Gaza war, Hamas receives the highest positive rating (51%) followed by Haniyeh’s government (46%), Iran (41%), Syria (34%), Fateh (34%), president Abbas (25%), Fayyad’s government (23%), and finally Egypt (22%).

 

13% of the public say they have been victims of attacks or robbery by other Palestinians during the past year. Among those, 43% say they have submitted a complaint to the police and security services and 56% say they did not. 35% of those who did not submit a complaint say the reason they did not submit one is that they do not trust the police while 44% say the police can not do any thing to help them. 26% of those who did submit a complaint say they were satisfied with the police work in the investigation to uncover the circumstances of the crime while 73% say they were not satisfied. The percentage of those who have been attacked or victimized during the past year is higher in the Gaza Strip (17%) than the West Bank (10%) but the percentage of those who submitted complaints is higher in the West Bank (50%) than in the Gaza Strip (36%). Nonetheless, the level of distrust in the police among those who did not submit a complaint is higher in the West Bank (41%) than in the Gaza Strip (30%). The levels of satisfaction with the performance of the police among those who submitted a complaint are similar in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

 

Only 33% of the public believe that Fateh’s Sixth party congress will be held in July as announced, 42% say it will be postponed, and 14% say it will never be held. With regard to the venue, 34% prefer holding the congress in the Palestinian territories while only 21% prefer holding it outside. 36% prefer holding it inside and outside through a video link. If during the congress Fateh selected its head, 34% would prefer the election of Marwan Barghouti and 16% would prefer electing Mahmud Abbas. On their expectations regarding who will lead Fateh in the future, the public is evenly divided with 46% believing the leaders will come from the young guard and 45% believing they will come from the old guard.

 

(2) Peace Process   

  • 67% believe that it is not possible these days to reach a permanent peace agreement with Israel and 30% believe it is possible

  • 69% believe that the chances for establishing an independent Palestinian state next to the state of Israel in the next five years are slim to non-existent and 28% believe it medium or high

  • 61% support the two-state solution, 23% support the one-state solution, and 9% support other solutions

  • 78% prefer a comprehensive peace settlement rather than an interim one and 18% prefer an interim settlement

  • 50% accept a mutual recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for Palestinian people after all issues of the conflict have been resolved

  • 57% support the Arab (or Saudi) Peace Initiative and 40% oppose it

  • 51% support and 46% oppose launching rockets from the Gaza Strip against Israeli communities across the border inside Israel

  • 43% believe that an Iranian acquirement of nuclear arms would have a positive impact on the Arab region and 33% believe it would have a negative impact

 

Findings indicate a continued slide toward pessimism among Palestinians regarding the chances for peace. A majority of 70% believes that it is impossible to reach a permanent peace agreement with the new Netanyahu government while only 27% believe it is possible. Similarly, 69% believe that the chances for establishing an independent Palestinian state within the next five years are slim to non existent and 28% believe the chances are medium or high. In general, two thirds say that it is impossible these days to reach a permanent peace while only 30% think it is possible.

 

Findings also show that one third of the Palestinians believe that reaching an agreement on a two-state solution is more difficult than reaching an agreement on a one-state solution while a slightly larger percentage (35%) believes that reaching an agreement on a one-state solution is more difficult and 29% say the two solutions pose similar difficulties. A majority of 61% says that regardless of which negotiation is more difficult, it prefers the two-state solution while only 23% say they support the one state solution. When asking respondents about their preferences, the two state solution was presented as one based on the establishment of a Palestinian state along side Israel and the one-state solution was presented as one in which Israel is unified with the West Bank and the Gaza Strip to establish one state whereby Palestinian Arabs and Israeli Jews would be equal. Support for the one-state solution is equal in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. But it increases slightly among residents of refugee camps (28%) compared to residents of cities (23%), among men (26%) compared to women (21), among holders of BA degree (27%) compared to illiterates (18%), among supporters of Hamas (27%) compared to supporters of Fateh (20%) and among supporters of the peace process (28%) compared to those opposed to the peace process (22%).

 

The overwhelming majority of Palestinians (78%) supports a comprehensive peace settlement, one that lead to permanent peace and end of conflict and resolution of all issues while 18% prefer an interim settlement, one in which a Palestinian state is established in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip while postponing issues such as refugees. Within the context of a comprehensive settlement and after the establishment of a Palestinian state and the resolution of all issues, 50% say they would accept and 49% say they would reject a mutual recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people. These results indicate a decline in the support for this mutual recognition of identity. The highest level of support (66%) was recorded in March 2006, in out poll #19, but has since declined.

 

Findings also show that 57% support and 40% oppose the Arab (or Saudi) peace initiative.  The initiative, as presented to the respondents, calls for an Arab recognition of Israel and the signing of peace agreement and normalization of relations with it after it ends its occupation of Arab lands occupied in 1967 and after the establishment of a Palestinian state and the resolution of the refugee problem in a just and agreed upon settlement based on UN resolution 194.

 

Despite the support for the two-state solution, the Saudi initiative, and the mutual recognition of identity, a majority of 51% supports and 46% oppose the launching of rockets from the Gaza Strip against Israeli communities inside Israel. Pessimism regarding the future of peace or changing conditions of boycott and closure imposed on the Gaza Strip seems to influence attitudes regarding violence. For example, support for the launching of rockets reaches 59% among those who believe that the chances for establishing a Palestinian state in the next 5 years are non existent; but it drops considerably to 38% among those believe the chances are high.

 

Similarly, 43% believe that an Iranian attainment of nuclear capacity would have a positive impact on the region while 33% believe it will have a negative impact. As in the previous example, a larger percentage of pessimists, reaching 52%, believes that a nuclearized Iran would have a positive impact while only 30% of the optimists regarding the chances for a Palestinian state during the next five years tend to view a nuclear Iran positively.

 
 

PSR Poll No. 32

21-23 May 2009   

 

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

 

00 )

From among the following satellite news stations, which one you watched most during the last two months?

 

 

1) Al Arabia

9.8

7.9

13.0

 

 

2) Al Jazeera

57.3

64.2

45.2

 

 

3) Al Hurra

0.4

0.4

0.2

 

 

4) Al Manar

2.8

3.6

1.4

 

 

5) Palestine TV

8.1

6.0

11.8

 

 

6) Al-Aqsa TV

11.0

7.4

17.2

 

 

7) Do not watch TV

6.2

6.1

6.3

 

 

8) Others

2.8

2.3

3.7

 

 

9) Do not have a dish

1.4

1.5

1.2

 

 

10) No Opinion/Don’t know

0.4

0.6

00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

01)

In general, how would you describe conditions of the Palestinians in the Palestinian areas in Gaza Strip these days?

 

 

1) Very good

1.3

1.6

0.7

 

 

2) Good

8.9

9.9

7.2

 

 

3) So so

13.3

13.1

13.6

 

 

4) Bad

36.9

40.3

30.9

 

 

5) Very bad

36.7

30.6

47.5

 

 

6) DK/NA

2.8

4.4

00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

02)

In general, how would you describe conditions of the Palestinians in the Palestinian areas in the West Bank these days?

 

 

1) Very good

5.1

3.6

7.6

 

 

2) Good

26.3

23.4

31.4

 

 

3) So so

26.9

31.1

19.7

 

 

4) Bad

26.6

28.3

23.6

 

 

5) Very bad

11.3

13.2

8.0

 

 

6) DK/NA

3.8

0.4

9.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

03)

Generally, do you see yourself as:

 

 

1) Religious

48.2

43.9

55.6

 

 

2) Somewhat religious

48.0

51.5

41.9

 

 

3) Not religious

3.5

4.4

1.8

 

 

4) DK/NA

0.3

0.1

0.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

04)

Generally, do you see yourself as:

 

 

1) Supportive of the peace process

63.5

55.8

76.9

 

 

2) Opposed to the peace process

19.1

21.5

14.8

 

 

3) Between support and opposition

16.2

20.7

8.2

 

 

4) DK/NA

1.3

2.0

00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

05)

Do you think that there is corruption in PA institutions under the control of President Abu Mazin?

 

 

1) Yes 

68.3

70.8

64.0

 

 

2) No 

19.1

16.2

24.0

 

 

3) DK/NA

12.6

12.9

12.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

06)

If yes, will this corruption in PA institutions under the control of President Abu Mazin increase, decrease or remain as it is in the future?

 

 

1) Will increase   

49.7

57.3

35.2

 

 

2) Will remain as it is

14.4

14.6

14.0

 

 

3) will decrease

27.1

19.7

41.2

 

 

4) DK/NA

8.8

8.5

9.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07)

How would you evaluate the current status of democracy and human rights in the Palestinian Authority under Abu Mazin? Would you say it is:

 

 

1) Very good 

5.0

3.5

7.6

 

 

2) Good 

29.8

27.1

34.5

 

 

3) neither bad nor good

26.3

28.1

23.0

 

 

4) Bad

20.8

20.5

21.2

 

 

5) Very bad

14.8

16.7

11.4

 

 

6) DK/NA

3.4

4.0

2.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

08)

How would you evaluate the current status of democracy and human rights in the Gaza Strip under Ismail Hanyieh government? Would you say it is:

 

 

1) Very good 

6.2

4.7

8.9

 

 

2) Good 

24.2

22.0

28.0

 

 

3) Fair

19.4

19.0

20.2

 

 

4) Bad

23.1

24.1

21.2

 

 

5) Very bad

17.5

16.3

19.4

 

 

6) DK/NA

9.7

13.9

2.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09)

Would you say that these days your security and safety, and that of your family, is assured or not assured?

 

 

1) Completely assured

8.4

3.9

16.2

 

 

2) Assured

46.8

48.8

43.3

 

 

3) Not assured  

35.2

36.2

33.4

 

 

4) Not assured at all 

9.5

10.9

7.1

 

 

5) DK/NA

0.1

0.1

00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10)

Tell us how do you evaluate the performance of the dismissed government of Ismail Haniyeh in the Gaza Strip? Is it good or bad?

 

 

1) Very Good

8.9

7.5

11.3

 

 

2) Good

32.5

30.4

36.2

 

 

3) Neither good nor bad

23.5

23.9

22.9

 

 

4) Bad

19.7

19.5

20.0

 

 

5) Very Bad

6.8

5.9

8.3

 

 

6) No Opinion/Don’t know

8.7

12.9

1.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11)

Tell us how do you evaluate the performance of the government that was headed by Salam Fayyad until recently when he formed a new government? Is it good or bad?

 

 

1) Very Good

4.8

4.9

4.6

 

 

2) Good

26.8

26.0

28.2

 

 

3) Neither good nor bad

27.1

29.0

23.9

 

 

4) Bad

22.7

21.7

24.4

 

 

5) Very Bad

10.0

9.6

10.6

 

 

6) No Opinion/Don’t know

8.6

8.8

8.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12)

Are you satisfied or not satisfied with the performance of Mahmud Abbas since his election as president of the PA?

 

 

1) Very satisfied

6.2

4.9

8.4

 

 

2) Satisfied

37.0

37.0

37.1

 

 

3) Not satisfied 

35.3

34.5

36.7

 

 

4) not satisfied at all

18.6

19.8

16.7

 

 

5) DK/NA

2.8

3.7

1.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13)

If new presidential elections are to take place today, and Mahmud Abbas was nominated by Fateh and Ismail Haniyeh was nominated by Hamas, whom would you vote for?

 

 

1) Mahmud Abbas

48.7

45.6

52.9

 

 

2) Ismail Haniyeh

43.8

45.0

42.2

 

 

3 DK/NA

7.5

9.5

4.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

14)

And if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti representing Fateh and Ismail Haniyeh representing Hamas, whom would you vote for?

 

 

1) Marwan Barghouti

63.7

65.0

61.9

 

 

2) Ismail Haniyeh

32.0

29.5

35.4

 

 

3) No Opinion/ Don’t know

4.3

5.4

2.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

16)

 

If new elections agreed to by all factions are held today and the same lists that took part in the last PLC elections were nominated, for whom would you vote?

 

 

1) alternative

0.9

1.2

0.3

 

 

2) independent Palestine

3.0

3.8

1.8

 

 

3) Abu Ali Mustafa

3.2

3.4

2.7

 

 

4) Abu al Abbas

0.3

0.5

00

 

 

5) freedom and social justice

0.2

0.3

00

 

 

6) change and reform

32.6

30.8

35.1

 

 

8) third way

0.6

0.8

0.3

 

 

9) freedom and independence

0.4

0.2

0.9

 

 

10) Palestinian justice

0.2

00

0.6

 

 

11) Fateh

40.5

37.0

45.7

 

 

12) none of the above/ DK/NA

18.2

22.0

12.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

17)

With regard to the upcoming parliamentary elections, what are your expectations regarding the outcome of these elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council? Who are the likely winners, those nominated by Hamas, Fateh, the Left, Independents, or those nominated by their families?

 

 

1) Fateh candidates

38.5

39.8

36.1

 

 

2) Hamas and Islamic Jihad candidates

27.9

26.7

30.0

 

 

3) leftest candidates (PFLP, DFLP, PPP, and al Mobadara-the Initiative )

1.6

1.5

1.9

 

 

4) Independent candidates

10.4

8.6

13.5

 

 

5) family candidates

1.9

2.8

0.5

 

 

6) DK/NA

19.7

20.6

18.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

18)

After the separation between Gaza and the West Bank, Hamas and the government of Ismail Haniyeh remained in power in Gaza and considered itself the legitimate government while president Abu Mazin formed a new government headed by Salam Fayyad followed by a new government headed by Fayyad and it too considered itself legitimate. What about you, which of the two government you consider legitimate, the government of Haniyeh or the government of Abu Mazin and Fayyad?

 

 

1) Haniyehs’ government is the legitimate one

30.6

29.6

32.3

 

 

2) Abu Mazin’s and Fayyad government is the legitimate one

26.2

25.0

28.3

 

 

3) Both governments are legitimate

10.3

11.0

9.0

 

 

4) Both governments are not legitimate

26.8

26.8

26.8

 

 

5) DK/NA

6.1

7.6

3.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

19)

From among the following three Palestinian priorities, which in your opinion is the most important one today?

 

 

1) Gaza reconstruction

19.9

22.4

15.7

 

 

2) reconciliation and reunification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip

50.7

50.9

50.5

 

 

3) return to quite and opening of Gaza crossings

28.5

25.5

33.6

 

 

4) DK/NA

0.9

1.2

0.2

 

 

 

20)

In your view, who is the legitimate president of the PA today?

 

 

1) Speaker of the PLC

26.8

20.9

37.0

 

 

2) Mahmud Abbas

42.3

39.2

47.7

 

 

3) other (specify ------- )

3.7

3.8

3.7

 

 

4) no one

20.7

27.7

8.5

 

 

5) DK/NA

6.5

8.4

3.2

 

 

 

 

21)

During the latest Israeli offensive against the Gaza Strip, some Palestinian and Arab circles exchanged accusations regarding the roles played by various actors. How would you evaluate the performance of the following parties during the war in terms of serving the Palestinian cause?

 

 

21-1 President Mahmud Abbas

 

 

 

 

 

1) positive

25.2

23.4

28.3

 

 

2) negative

47.3

49.2

44.1

 

 

3) neither positive nor negative

23.8

23.0

25.3

 

 

4) DK/NA

3.7

4.5

2.3

 

 

21-2 Isma'el Haniya Government In Gaza

 

 

 

 

 

1) positive

46.3

44.8

49.0

 

 

2) negative

29.7

28.8

31.2

 

 

3) neither positive nor negative

19.9

20.8

18.2

 

 

4) DK/NA

4.1

5.6

1.6

 

 

21-3 Salam Fayad Government In West Bank

 

 

 

 

 

1) positive

22.9

23.0

22.6

 

 

2) negative

48.5

46.1

52.7

 

 

3) neither positive nor negative

20.2

19.7

21.1

 

 

4) DK/NA

8.4

11.1

3.6

 

 

21-4 Hamas

 

 

 

 

 

1) positive

50.7

48.5

54.4

 

 

2) negative

29.2

28.3

30.7

 

 

3) neither positive nor negative

14.9

16.4

12.2

 

 

4) DK/NA

5.3

6.7

2.7

 

 

21-5 Fateh

 

 

 

 

 

1) positive

33.7

32.2

36.3

 

 

2) negative

42.4

42.6

41.9

 

 

3) neither positive nor negative

19.0

18.3

20.2

 

 

4) DK/NA

5.0

6.9

1.6

 

 

21-6 Egypt

 

 

 

 

 

1) positive

22.3

16.0

33.3

 

 

2) negative

62.4

68.9

51.1

 

 

3) neither positive nor negative

11.3

9.6

14.2

 

 

4) DK/NA

4.0

5.5

1.3

 

 

21-7 Syria

 

 

 

 

 

1) positive

33.6

35.0

31.4

 

 

2) negative

38.0

34.8

43.6

 

 

3) neither positive nor negative

20.5

21.0

19.7

 

 

4) DK/NA

7.8

9.2

5.4

 

 

21-8 Iran

 

 

 

 

 

1) positive

40.8

44.7

34.1

 

 

2) negative

35.5

30.9

43.6

 

 

3) neither positive nor negative

15.8

15.3

16.8

 

 

4) DK/NA

7.8

9.1

5.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

22)

President Abbas asked Salam Fayyad to form a new government which has been established few days ago. Do you approve of disapprove the formation submitted his resignation to the president in March in order to facilitate the formation of a national unity government. But so far, no national unity government has been formed. Do you approve or disapprove the formation of a new Fayyad government?

 

 

1) certainly approve

5.8

4.9

7.4

 

 

2) approve

36.0

36.7

34.8

 

 

3) disapprove

32.7

31.7

34.4

 

 

4) certainly disapprove

15.2

14.3

16.8

 

 

5) DK/NA

10.3

12.4

6.6

 

 

 

 

23)

In your opinion is the price toll imposed on the Palestinian public by the continuation of the Fateh-Hamas split:

 

 

1. Very high/Unbearable

69.5

63.7

79.6

 

 

2. High

20.0

25.0

11.4

 

 

3. Medium

5.5

5.3

5.7

 

 

4. Quite bearable

4.0

4.6

2.9

 

 

5. DK/NA

1.0

1.3

0.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

24)

How long in your opinion will Palestinian society be able to endure the price of continued split between Fateh and Hamas?

 

 

1. Less than a year

36.0

29.6

47.3

 

 

2. Few years

23.9

25.5

21.0

 

 

3. 5-10 years

8.3

8.5

8.1

 

 

4. Forever

23.3

26.5

17.6

 

 

5. DK/NA

8.5

10.0

6.0

 

 

 

 

25)

What do you think are the aspirations of Fateh with regard to Hamas for the long run?

 

 

1. Integrate Hamas into the political system while avoiding international siege and boycott

24.5

21.2

30.1

 

 

2. Insure Hamas’s participation in some public institutions as long as it does not pose a threat to Fateh’s dominance

21.0

19.3

24.0

 

 

3. Keep Hamas outside the Palestinian political system

15.7

16.7

14.1

 

 

4. Destroy Hamas’s political, military, financial and social power 

31.6

34.5

26.5

 

 

5.DK/NA

7.2

8.3

5.2

 

 

 

 

26)

And what do you think are the aspirations of Hamas with regard to Fateh for the long run?

 

 

1. Integrate itself into the political system on the basis of equality with Fateh and other powers

37.5

37.9

36.6

 

 

2. Control the Palestinian political system and marginalize Fateh and other forces

12.1

11.8

12.6

 

 

3. Control the Palestinian political system and eliminate Fateh politically

12.3

13.3

10.7

 

 

4. Destroy Fateh’s political, military, financial, and social power

29.0

26.4

33.5

 

 

5.DK/NA

9.1

10.5

6.5

 

 

 

 

27)

To what extent are you worried or not worried that you or a member of your family could be hurt in your daily life by other Palestinians such as those affiliated with Fateh or Hamas?

 

 

1. Very Worried

18.5

12.6

28.8

 

 

2. Worried

36.6

37.2

35.7

 

 

3. Not worried

31.8

35.3

25.5

 

 

4. Not worried at all

12.5

14.2

9.5

 

 

5.DK/NA

0.6

0.7

0.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

28)

Can any side in the conflict between Fateh and Hamas obtain unilaterally a solution in its favor by military or by other means?

 

 

1. Yes, Hamas can

8.6

6.7

12.1

 

 

2. Yes, Fateh can

4.8

4.8

4.9

 

 

3. Neither side can and dialogue is required

59.9

58.9

61.7

 

 

4. The conflict cannot be solved neither unilaterally nor by dialogue

21.5

23.0

18.9

 

 

5. DK/NA

5.2

6.8

2.5

 

 

 

 

29)

Can the Fateh-Hamas conflict be settled through Egyptian or Arab mediation?

 

 

1. Yes

48.3

42.1

59.2

 

 

2. No

48.5

54.8

37.4

 

 

3. DK/NA

3.2

3.0

3.4

 

 

 

 

30)

In your opinion, are Fateh supporters and leaders ready these days to make the necessary concessions in order to insure the success of the national dialogue between Fateh and Hamas?

 

 

1. Fateh supporters are ready but Fateh leaders are not

21.2

21.7

20.4

 

 

2. Fateh leaders are ready but Fateh supporters are not

7.4

6.8

8.4

 

 

3. Both Fateh leaders and supporters are ready

27.1

24.9

30.9

 

 

4. Neither Fateh leaders nor Fateh supporters are ready

34.6

35.1

33.8

 

 

5.DK/NA

9.7

11.5

6.5

 

 

 

 

31)

In your opinion, are Hamas supporters and leaders ready these days to make the necessary concessions in order to insure the success of the national dialogue between Fateh and Hamas?

 

 

1. Hamas supporters are ready but Hamas leaders are not

16.7

18.9

12.9

 

 

2. Hamas leaders are ready but Hamas supporters are not

8.0

6.9

9.9

 

 

3. Both Hamas leaders and supporters are ready

25.3

25.8

24.5

 

 

4. Neither Hamas leaders nor Hamas supporters are ready

39.4

35.3

46.4

 

 

5.DK/NA

10.6

13.0

6.3

 

 

 

 

32)

Do you expect the dialogue in Cairo among the various factions to succeed in ending the current West Bank-Gaza Strip split?

 

 

1) Certainly will succeed

1.9

1.4

2.8

 

 

2) Will succeed

38.1

33.0

47.1

 

 

3) Will fail

41.7

43.9

37.8

 

 

4) Certainly will fail

14.2

16.5

10.1

 

 

5) DK/NA

4.2

5.2

2.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

33)

In the dialogue between Fateh and Hamas, differences exist over the electoral system. Hamas demands the adoption of the system that was used in the last legislative elections in January 2006 which is a mixed system with half the seats selected in proportional representation (with the West Bank and the Gaza Strip being one electoral district and the vote is for electoral lists rather than individuals) and the other half selected in a district system (where vote is for individuals in 16 electoral districts). Fateh on the other hand demands the adoption of a system of proportional representation (where number of seats for each list is equivalent to the percentage of votes received in the whole country). Which of the two systems you prefer?

 

 

1) mixed system as proposed by Hamas

45.6

47.9

41.5

 

 

2) wholly proportional representation as proposed by Fateh

39.2

34.2

47.9

 

 

3) DK/NA

15.3

17.9

10.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

34)

The most difficult issue in the dialogue between Fateh and Hamas is the platform of the national unity government. Fateh demands the formation of a government that accepts all previous agreements between the PLO and Israel while Hamas is opposed to that. What do you think? Do you agree or disagree with Fateh’s demad?

 

 

1) certainly agree

9.1

7.1

12.6

 

 

2) agree

40.4

37.3

45.8

 

 

3) disagree

34.4

37.2

29.5

 

 

4) certainly disagree

9.4

10.0

8.4

 

 

5) DK/NA

6.6

8.3

3.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

35)

Fateh says that acceptance of the national unity government of all agreements signed between the PLO and Israel insures the ending of international boycott and sanctions and continuation of international financial and political support for the Palestinian Authority. By contrast, Hamas believes that acceptance of all agreements signed between the PLO and Israel means recognition of Israel. Which of the two views is the closest to your thinking?

 

 

1) Tend toward Hamas’s view

34.3

36.2

30.8

 

 

2) tend toward Fateh’s view

35.6

30.2

44.9

 

 

3) tend to accept the two views

11.0

10.8

11.3

 

 

4) I reject both views

15.3

18.0

10.7

 

 

5) DK/NA

3.9

4.8

2.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

36)

Given the failure of the dialogue between Fateh and Hamas, what are your expectations for the future of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip?

 

 

1) unity will resume in the near future

18.8

17.9

20.4

 

 

2) unity will resume but will take a long time

50.9

49.1

54.1

 

 

3) unity will not resume and two separate entities will emerge

26.9

28.7

23.7

 

 

4) DK/NA

3.4

4.4

1.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

37)

Fateh has announced its intentions to convene its Sixth Congress in July whereby the Congress will elect the leadership institutions such as the Central Committee and the Revolutionary Council and will decide on the movement’s political program and political reforms. The last time the Congress met was 20 years ago. Do you expect the Congress to convene in July as announced?

 

 

1) Will certainly convene

2.6

2.1

3.5

 

 

2) Will convene

29.9

29.7

30.2

 

 

3) Will be postponed

41.5

39.8

44.4

 

 

4) Will never convene

14.3

15.4

12.4

 

 

5) DK/NA

11.6

12.9

9.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

38)

Some Fateh leaders prefer to hold the Sixth Congress in the homeland while leaders who live outside the homeland believe that entry into the county might not be feasible for all. Where would you like to hold the Congress, inside or outside the homeland? Or would you like holding it both inside and outside with a live video link between the two sides?

 

 

1) in the homeland

34.1

33.8

34.6

 

 

2) outside the homeland

21.4

18.9

25.7

 

 

3) both inside and outside the homeland with live video link

35.8

36.6

34.5

 

 

4) DK/NA

8.7

10.7

5.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

39)

If you able to take part in Fateh’s Sixth Congress, whom would you elect as president of Fateh?

 

 

 

1) Marwan Barghouti

34.3

27.4

47.3

 

 

2) Mahmuod Abbas

15.7

11.6

23.5

 

 

3) Farouq Qaddoumi

3.2

2.7

4.1

 

 

4) Mohammad Dahlan

1.9

0.1

5.2

 

 

5) Salam Fayyad

1.6

1.9

1.0

 

 

6) Other

4.6

5.2

3.5

 

 

7) DK/NA/NO ONE/I WILL NOT PARTICIPATE

38.8

51.1

15.3

 

 

 

40)

What outcomes do you expect to come out with regard to the leadership that will be elected by Fateh’s Sixth Congress in case it was successfully held?

 

 

1) most will be from the young leadership

45.9

43.0

50.9

 

 

2) most will be from the previous leadership

45.2

47.1

41.9

 

 

3) DK/NA

8.9

9.9

7.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

41)

Have you or any one in your family been attacked physically or your home, land, car, or shop been stolen or attacked by another Palestinian during the last year?

 

 

1) Yes

12.5

10.0

16.9

 

 

2) No (go to Q45 )

87.4

89.8

83.1

 

 

3) refused to answer

0.1

0.2

00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

42)

If the answer is yes, have you made a complaint to the Palestinian police or any other security service?

 

 

1) Yes (go to Q 44 )

43.1

50.0

36.0

 

 

2) no

56.0

48.2

64.0

 

 

3) refused to answer

0.9

1.8

00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

43)

If the answer is no, what is the reason for not making a complaint?

 

 

1) do not trust the police or the security services

34.9

40.9

30.2

 

 

2) they can do nothing about it

43.6

32.0

52.7

 

 

3) did not want the matter to become public knowledge

7.6

4.0

10.4

 

 

4) other (specify -------- )

13.9

23.2

6.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

44)

If the answer is yes, are you satisfied with the performance of the police or the other security services with regard to the investigation and the uncovering of the circumstances of the attack?

 

 

1) Yes

26.3

25.4

27.7

 

 

2) No

73.2

73.8

72.3

 

 

3) DK/NA

0.5

0.8

00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

45)

There is a proposal that after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the settlemnet of all issues in dispute, including the refugees and Jerusalem issues, there will be a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinians people. Do you agree or disagree to this proposal?

 

 

1) Definitely agree

6.8

5.7

8.7

 

 

2) agree

42.7

43.8

40.7

 

 

3) disagree

34.2

34.1

34.5

 

 

4) definitely disagree

14.9

14.4

15.9

 

 

5) DK/NA

1.4

2.1

0.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

46)

And what is the Palestinian majority opinion on this issue? Do most Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza support or oppose the recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people at the end of the peace process?

 

1) Majority supports

49.0

49.0

48.8

 

2) Majority opposes

44.8

43.4

47.1

 

3) DK/NA

6.3

7.6

4.1

 

 

 

 

 

47)

And what is the Israeli majority opinion on this issue? Do most Israelis support or oppose the recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people at the end of the peace process?

 

1) Majority supports

35.5

31.6

42.1

 

2) Majority opposes

57.7

61.0

52.0

 

5) DK/NA

6.8

7.4

5.9

 

 

 

 

 

48)

Now 40 years after the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, what in your view are the chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state next to the state of Israel in the next five years? Are they high, medium, low, or none existent?

 

 

1) None existent

30.6

32.4

27.6

 

 

2) Low

38.6

38.0

39.5

 

 

3) Medium

23.8

21.6

27.6

 

 

4) High

4.4

4.6

4.1

 

 

5) DK/NA

2.6

3.4

1.1

 

 

 

49)

According to the Saudi plan, Israel will retreat from all territories occupied in 1967 including Gaza the West Bank, Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, and a Palestinian state will be established. The refugees problem will be resolved through negotiation in a just and agreed upon manner and in accordance with UN resolution 194 which allows return of refugees to Israel and compensation. In return, all Arab states will recognize Israel and its right to secure borders, will sign peace treaties with her and establish normal diplomatic relations.  Do you agree or disagree to this plan?

 

 

1) Certainly agree

8.3

7.3

10.1

 

 

2) agree

49.0

46.0

54.4

 

 

3) disagree

29.0

31.8

24.1

 

 

4) Certainly disagree

10.6

11.1

9.8

 

 

5) DK/NA

3.0

3.9

1.6

 

 

 

50)

What do you expect to happen between Palestinians and Israelis now following the refusal by the new Netanyahu government to accept the two-state solution and the statement by president Abbas that Israeli acceptance of the two-state solution and the freezing of settlement construction are conditions for resumption of negotiations?

 

 

1) Negotiations will resume soon enough and armed confrontations will stop

15.6

15.9

14.9

 

 

2) Negotiations will resume but some armed attacks will continue

44.2

42.1

47.9

 

 

3) Armed confrontations will not stop and the two sides will not return to negotiations

35.7

36.1

34.9

 

 

4) DK/NA

4.6

5.9

2.2

 

51)

In your view, is it possible or impossible these days to reach a compromise permanent status agreement with the new Netanyahu government?

 

1) Certainly possible

1.1

1.0

1.1

 

2) Possible

25.7

22.4

31.4

 

3) Impossible

39.6

39.4

40.0

 

4) Certainly impossible

30.2

32.5

26.1

 

5) DK/NA

3.5

4.7

1.4

 

 

 

 

 

52)

There is a talk about conducting Palestinian-Israeli negotiations on an interim settlement whereby a Palestinian state is established in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip while other issues, such as refugees, would be postponed. Other people prefer negotiations that would lead to a comprehensive settlement that would lead to permanent peace and end of conflict with all issues, including refugees, resolved. Which of the two positions do you prefer: the interim settlement or the comprehensive one?

 

1) definitely the interim

1.9

2.4

0.9

 

2) the interim

16.3

11.8

24.0

 

3) the comprehensive

53.5

52.4

55.4

 

4) definitely the comprehensive

24.4

29.2

16.2

 

5) DK/NA

3.9

4.2

3.4

 

 

 

 

 

53)

Some people think that a solution based on the establishment of a Palestinian state along side Israel, known as the two-state solution, is difficult to achieve and that Palestinians should struggle for another solution, one in which Israel is unified with the West Bank and the Gaza Strip to establish one state whereby Palestinian Arabs and Israeli Jews would be equal. In your view, which of the two solutions is more difficult to achieve?

 

1) two-state solution

32.8

29.3

38.8

 

2) the one-state solution

34.5

33.6

36.0

 

3) both equally difficult

29.2

32.3

23.8

 

4) DK/NA

3.5

4.8

1.4

 

54)

Regardless of its difficulty, which of the two solutions do you support?

 

1) the two-state solution

60.8

57.2

67.0

 

2) the one-state solution

23.3

22.7

24.3

 

3) another solution (specify -------- )

9.3

11.8

5.0

 

4) DK/NA

6.6

8.3

3.6

         

55)

Do you support or oppose the launching of rockets from the Gaza Strip against towns and cities inside Israel, such as Sderot and Ashkelon?

 

1) Certainly support

14.8

14.2

15.7

 

2) Support

35.8

38.1

31.8

 

3) Oppose

36.5

35.6

38.1

 

4) Certainly oppose

9.5

8.0

12.1

 

5) NA/DK

3.4

4.1

2.3

 

 

 

 

 

56)

And generally speaking is it possible or impossible to reach these days a final status settlement with Israel?

 

 

1. Definitely possible

1.5

1.2

2.0

 

 

2. Think it is possible

28.6

26.2

32.7

 

 

3. Think it is impossible

43.8

43.1

44.9

 

 

4. definitely impossible

22.9

25.2

19.0

 

 

5. DK/NA

3.2

4.3

1.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

57)

Some people think that Iran seeks to own nuclear arms, in your opinion will the ownership of nuclear arms by Iran have a positive or negative impact on the Arab region?

 

 

1) positive

43.0

47.8

34.8

 

 

2) negative

32.8

25.8

44.9

 

 

3) neither positive nor negative

17.8

18.9

15.8

 

 

4) DK/NA

6.4

7.5

4.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

58)

If you were to select a vice president, whom would you select?

 

 

1) Marwan Barghouti

18.8

16.6

23.0

 

 

2) Ismail Haniyeh

8.8

5.6

15.0

 

 

3) Salam Fayyad

7.1

6.5

8.3

 

 

4) Mustafa Al-Barghouti

6.3

5.2

8.6

 

 

5) Mohammad Dahlan

2.7

0.5

7.0

 

 

6) Sa'eb Erikat

2.5

1.4

4.7

 

 

7) Ahmad Bahar

1.4

0.6

3.0

 

 

8) Other

11.7

10.6

13.9

 

 

9) NA/DK

40.6

52.9

16.6

 

 

 

59)

Which of the following political parties do you support?

 

 

1) PPP

0.7

0.8

0.4

 

 

2) PFLP

3.6

4.0

2.8

 

 

3) Fateh

34.3

30.6

40.6

 

 

4) Hamas

23.9

23.4

24.9

 

 

5) DFLP

0.1

0.2

00

 

 

6) Islamic Jihad

1.3

1.2

1.4

 

 

8) National Initiative (Mubadara)

0.5

0.6

0.2

 

 

9) Independent Islamists

3.7

2.4

6.1

 

 

10) Independent Nationalists

4.5

4.4

4.8

 

 

11) None of the above

26.9

32.0

18.0

 

 

12) Other, specify

0.6

0.5

0.7

 

 

 

This PSR survey was conducted with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ramallah

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