PSR - Survey Research Unit: Poll No. 45 - Full analysis


PSR poll 45 - Full analysis

 

 

 

30 September 2012  

 

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (45)

 

Mixed news for the PA: satisfaction with Abbas, Fateh, and Fayyad are down, positive evaluation of conditions in the West Bank is lower than positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip,  and three quarters believe protests in the West Bank will continue and escalate, but about 70% side with Abbas in opposing return to negotiations before Israel freezes settlement construction and accepts the 1967 lines with swaps as a base for negotiations and almost three quarters support a UN bid seeking international recognition of Palestinian Statehood

 

13-15 September 2012

 

Table of Contents:

 

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 13-15 September 2012. This poll was conducted during a period that witnessed significant price hikes, particularly fuel prices, and right after the eruption of widespread protests in the West Bank that started in early September but quieted down after the Fayyad government restored the older prices of diesel and gas. In the Gaza Strip, a young unemployed man burned himself but no mass protests took place. The same period witnessed incidents of lawlessness in northern West Bank, including the assassination of a colonel in the Preventive Security force in Jenin. Preparation for local elections continued in the West Bank while reconciliation efforts stalemated with Abbas announcing that no reconciliation government will be formed until Hamas allowed the Election Commission to resume its work in the Gaza Strip and agreed to hold general elections, two conditions that Hamas rejected. Under these conditions, Fayyad proposed holding parliamentary elections in the West Bank. During this period, the PLO announced that it intends to seek UN recognition of Palestine as a non member state but did not specify a date for the request. The period witnessed continued settlers' violence against Palestinians and threats by Israeli foreign minister against Abbas. But with the end of Ramadan, Israeli Civil Administration issued more than one hundred thousand permits allowing Palestinians from the West Bank to visit Jerusalem and Israel. It is worth noting that president Abbas went into a visit to India during the worst days of West Bank mass protests. This survey covers Palestinian attitudes regarding West Bank protests, general and local elections, reconciliation, public evaluation of the performance of the governments of Salam Fayyad and Ismail Haniyeh, the internal balance of power between Fateh and Hamas, the views of the public on the most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems Palestinians confront today, the peace process, and other topics. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%.

 

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

 

Main Findings:

 

The third quarter of 2012 brings bad news for the PA in the West Bank. Positive evaluation of West Bank conditions drops significantly. Similarly, positive evaluation of the performance of the Fayyad government drops sharply. Moreover, Fateh's popularity drops and satisfaction with the performance of president Abbas decreases. By contrast, positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip rises. Indeed, for the first time since the split in 2007, a larger percentage of Palestinians give more positive evaluation to conditions in the Gaza Strip than to conditions in the West Bank. It is clear that the wave of price hikes and the decisions taken by the Fayyad government, in raising prices of fuel, are responsible for this sudden shift in public attitudes and evaluations. Indeed, findings show that two thirds of the public say that the current difficult economic situation forces them to demonstrate and protest while more than three quarters of the public expect the current wave of protests to continue and escalate. More than half of the public (55%) expect the protests to spread into the Gaza Strip.

 

In the midst of this environment, pessimism regarding reconciliation increases with the percentage of those expecting the split to become permanent doubling in 18 months, since March 2011. Findings also show that two-thirds reject the idea of holding legislative elections in the West Bank only, believing that such elections would further consolidate the split. But a majority of Palestinians accept president Abbas' position that conditions reconciliation on a Hamas consent to holding elections in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.  

 

The good news for PA lies in public support for its UN bid and for its positions on negotiation with Israel. Findings show strong opposition (about 70%) to return to negotiations with Israel before it freezes settlement construction and accepts the 1967 lines with swap as a base for negotiations. Despite the realization of a large majority that going to the UN would bring about suspension of financial assistance and transfers from the US, Israel, and Europe, about 70% support such a step. But the public does not want a symbolic step; instead, it wants Palestinian assertion of sovereignty over the so-called "Area C" and over the border crossings with Jordan. Finally, findings show a huge gap between public assessment of the PLO's and the PA's long term goals and those of Israel. For the first time, we asked the public to assess the long term goals of the PLO and the PA. Specifically, we asked the public to tell us if it thinks the Palestinian long term goal is to recover the lands occupied in 1967 or alternatively to recover the land of 1948 and destroy the state of Israel. Two thirds said that the long term goal is to recover all or parts of the 1967 territories while less than one quarter indicated that the goal is to defeat Israel and recover the 1948 land. When asked about Israel's long term goal, more than 80% said it was to annex all lands occupied in 1967 and expel its population or deny them their political rights.

 

(1) Price Hikes and Popular Protests:

  • More than three quarters of the public expect the continuation and escalation of popular protests against price hikes and two thirds say that high prices forces them to demonstrate and protest.
  • 44% believe that the PA's financial crisis is manufactured and 51% believe it is real.
  • 37% believe that the cause of the PA's financial crisis is the international crisis  and the inability of donor to fulfill their commitments and 28% believe the cause is the cessation of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations.
  • 51% oppose tax increase or retiring some of the public sector employees as the means to resolve the financial crisis.
  • A majority of 53% believe the PA will be able to pay salaries during next year and 37% believe it will not be able to do so.

 

More than three quarters (76%) expect the West Bank protests to continue and escalate while 22% expect them to stop. Moreover, a majority of 55% expects the protests to spread into the Gaza Strip and 39% do not expect that and 66% say the price hikes and the inability to provide for a better life force them to take part in the protests and 33% say they do not wish to take part in these protests. The percentage of those who believe that the protests will spread to the Gaza Strip is equal among residents of the Gaza Strip and residents of the West Bank. But it increases among women (59%) compared to men (52%), and among supporters of Fateh (57%) compared to supporters of Hamas (45%). Similarly, the percentage of those who say that high prices force them to take part in the protests is equal in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. But it increases among men (75%) compared to women (57%), among supporters of third parties and Fateh (80% and 72% respectively) compared to supporters of Hamas (60%), among holders of BA degree (68%) compared to illiterates (46%), and among laborers (78%) compared to housewives (52%).

51% of the public is convinced that the current financial crisis of the PA is real while 44% think it is manufactured. The belief that the crisis is manufactured increases in the West Bank (48%) compared to the Gaza Strip (38%), among those who oppose the peace process (54%) compared to supporters to the peace process (41%), among supporters of Hamas (60%) compared to supporters of Fateh and third parties (30% and 42% respectively), among those who are over 50 years of age (49%) compared to those whose age is between 18 and 28 years (38%), among illiterates (49%) compared to those who hold a BA degree (39%), among farmers, merchants, the unemployed, and the professionals (60%, 56%, 51%, and 50% respectively) compared to employees and students (38% and 40% respectively), among those who work in the private sector (48%) compared to those who work in the public sector (36%), and among those who earn the least income (49%) compared to those who earn the highest income (39%).

 

The largest percentage (37%) believe that the international financial crisis and the inability of the donor countries to fulfill their obligations to the PA is the reason behind the financial crisis of the PA while 28% say the reason is the cessation of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations and 16% say the reason behind the crisis is the revolts in the Arab World and the Arab preoccupation with their own problems.

 

Despite the seriousness of the financial crisis, 51% oppose increasing taxes or forcing a number of public sector employees into early retirement as means of resolving the crisis, while 30% support early retirement, 8% support a tax increase, and 10% support both, the early retirement and the tax increase. By contrast, 44% believe that a return to negotiations would resolve the financial crisis, as donor assistance would increase, while 34% believe that dissolving the PA resolves its financial crisis. In any case, a majority of 53% believes that the PA will continue to be able to pay salaries during next year while 37% believe the PA will not be able to do so.

 

(2) Reconciliation: 

  • A majority of 58% supports and 35% oppose Abbas' position linking reconciliation to a Hamas agreement on holding elections.
  • But a majority of 66% oppose and only 28% support Fayyad's suggestion to hold elections in the West Bank only. A majority believes that holding elections in the West Bank only would consolidate separation.
  • 42% believe that unity will not return, 14% think it will return soon, and 40% think it will return but only after a long time.

 

58% agree and 35% disagree with Abbas' position that the formation of a reconciliation government will come only after Hamas allows the Election Commission to resume work in the Gaza Strip and to set a date for elections. On the other hand, only 28% support and 66% oppose Fayyad's proposal to hold legislative elections in the West Bank only. Support for Abbas' position increases in the Gaza Strip (60%) compared to the West Bank (56%), among men (61%) compared to women (55%), among supporters of the peace process (64%) compared to those who are opposed to the peace process (42%), and among supporters of Fateh (81%) compared to supporters of Hamas and supporters of third parties (40% and 60% respectively). Opposition to Fayyad's suggestion increases in the Gaza Strip (70%) compared to the West Bank (64%), among those who are opposed to the peace process (77%) compared to supporters of the peace process (60%), among supporters of Hamas (85%) compared to supporters of Fateh and supporters of third parties (50% and 56% respectively), and among holders of BA degree (72%) compared to the illiterates (53%).

 

 Indeed, 63% believe that holding legislative elections in the West Bank only would lead to the consolidation of the West Bank-Gaza Strip split while only 10% believe it will increase the chances for reconciliation. In light of the stalemate in the Fateh-Hamas reconciliation efforts, the largest percentage (42%) believes that unity will never be restored and that two separate entities will be established in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip; 14% believe that unity will be restored soon, and 40% believe unity will be restored but only after a long time. A year and a half ago, in March 2011, only 21% said unity will not be restored and two separate entities will be established.

 

(3) Domestic Conditions:

  • Positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip reaches 25% and conditions in the West Bank 19%.
  • Perception of corruption in PA institutions in the West Bank reaches 79% and in the public institutions in the Gaza Strip 63%.
  • 42% believe that people in the West Bank can criticize the PA without fear and 26% believe that people in the Gaza Strip can criticize the authorities in the Gaza Strip without fear.
  • Positive evaluation of the performance of the Haniyeh government reaches 35% and the Fayyad government 22%.
  • Satisfaction with the performance of Abbas' continues to decrease reaching today 46%.

 

Positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip rises from 22% to 25% while 52% say conditions are bad or very bad. Positive evaluation of conditions in the West Bank drops significantly from 30% last June to 19% in this poll. Today, 60% say conditions in the West Bank are bad or very bad.  Indeed, only 15% of West Bankers describe conditions in the West Bank today as good or very good. It is worth noting that this is the first time since the split in 2007 that more Palestinians evaluate conditions in the Gaza Strip as better than conditions in the West Bank.

 

79% say there is corruption in the PA institutions in the West Bank while only 63% say there is corruption in the institutions of the dismissed government in the Gaza Strip. On the other hand, 24% say there is, and 42% say there is to some extent, press freedom in the West Bank. By contrast, 17% say there is, and 35% say there is to some extent, press freedom in the Gaza Strip.  Furthermore, 42% of the Palestinian public say people in the West Bank can criticize the authority in the West Bank without fear. By contrast, only 26% of the public say people in the Gaza Strip can criticize the authorities in Gaza without fear. These results indicate a significant increase in the perception of freedom to criticize authorities in the West Bank three months ago when it stood at 29%.

 

Perception of safety and security in the West Bank reaches 56%  and in the Gaza Strip 64%. Three months ago these percentages stood at 58% in the Gaza Strip and 55% in the West Bank. But findings show that the percentage of Gazans who say they seek immigration to other countries stands at 42%; in the West Bank, the percentage stands at 29%.

Positive evaluation of the performance of the Haniyeh government stands today at 35% and positive evaluation of the performance of the Fayyad government stands at 22%. Three months ago, positive evaluation stood at 36% for the performance of Fayyad and 38% for the performance of Haniyeh. Percentage of satisfaction with the performance of President Abbas stands at 46% while 50% say they are dissatisfied with his performance. Satisfaction with Abbas stood at 49% three months ago in June 2012 and 55% six months ago in March 2012. Satisfaction with Abbas increases in the West Bank (50%) compared to the Gaza Strip (40%), in rural areas (60%) compared to cities (43%), among men (51%) compared to women (42%), among those who define themselves as "somewhat religious" (52%) compared to the religious (41%), among supporters of the peace process (56%) compared to those who are opposed to the peace process (26%), among supporters of Fateh and third parties (81% and 48% respectively) compared to supporters of Hamas (23%), among non-refugees (50%) compared to refugees (42%), among illiterates (47%) compared to those who hold a BA degree (41%), and among those who work in the public sector (53%) compared to those who work in the private sector (46%). 

 

 (4) Presidency, Legislative, and Local Elections:

  • In presidential elections between Abbas and Haniyeh, the former receives 51% of the vote and the latter 40%.
  • In a  three way presidential elections, Abbas receives 20%, Haniyeh 29%, and Marwan Barghouti 45%).
  • In parliamentary elections, Fateh receives 37% and Hamas 28% of the votes.
  • 50%  say that local elections will take place on time, 47% say they will participate in the local elections, and 44% believe the elections will be fair.

 

If new presidential elections are held today, and only two were nominated, Abbas would receive the vote of 51% and Haniyeh 40% of the vote of those participating. The rate of participation in such elections would reach 55%. Three months ago, Abbas received the support of 49% and Haniyeh 44%. In the Gaza Strip, Abbas receives 52% and Haniyeh 40% and in the West Bank Abbas receives 49% and Haniyeh 39%. If the presidential elections were between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, the former would receive 61% and the latter would receive 32% of the participants’ votes. The rate of participation in this case would reach 66%. If the presidential elections were between three: Mahmud Abbas, Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, Barghouti receives the highest percentage (45%) followed by Haniyeh (29%), and Abbas (20%). The rate of participation in this case would reach 69%. In our previous poll last June, Barghouti received 37%, Haniyeh 33%, and Abbas 25%. 

 

If new legislative elections are held today with the participation of all factions, 69% say they would participate in such elections. Of those who would participate, 28% say they would vote for Hamas and 37% say they would vote for Fateh, 13% would vote for all other third parties combined, and 23% are undecided. Vote for Hamas in the Gaza Strip stands in this poll at 31% and in the West Bank at 25%. Vote for Fateh in the Gaza Strip stands in this poll at 40% and in the West Bank at 35%. These results indicate a decline in Fateh's popularity in the West Bank by six percentage points and in Hamas' popularity in the West Bank by two percentage points.

Only 38% of the public believe that local elections, scheduled to take place next month in the West Bank, will indeed take place as scheduled while 50% say it will not take place on the set date. 47% of West Bankers say they will participate in the upcoming local elections and 50% say they will not participate. When asked about the fairness of the upcoming local elections, 44% of the public believe that these elections, set to take place next month, will not be fair and an equal percentage (44%) believes they will be fair. Belief that local elections will be fair increases in the West Bank(46%) compared to the Gaza Strip (42%), in the cities (45%) compared to refugee camps (40%), among men (49%) compared to women (40%), among the somewhat religious (49%) compared to the religious (40%), among supporters of the peace process (50%) compared to those who are opposed to the peace process (31%), among supporters of Fateh (72%) compared to supporters of Hamas and third parties (35% and 41% respectively), among non-refugees (47%) compared to refugees (41%), among holders of BA degree (45%) compared to the illiterates (36%), and among those who work in the public sector (53%) compared to those who work in the private sector (46%).  

 

(5) Most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems confronting Palestinians today:

  • 44% say that the first most vital Palestinian goal is to end Israeli occupation and establish a Palestinian state and 30% say it is the right of return for refugees.
  • 32% say the most severe problem confronting Palestinians today is poverty and unemployment and 23% say it is the continuation of the Israeli occupation.

 

44% believe that the first most vital Palestinian goal should be to end Israeli occupation in the areas occupied in 1967 and build a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital. By contrast, 30% believe the first most vital goal should be to obtain the right of return of refugees to their 1948 towns and villages, 15% believe that it should be to build a pious or moral individual and a religious society, one that applies all Islamic teachings, and 11% believe that the first and most vital goal should be to establish a democratic political system that respects freedoms and rights of Palestinians.

The most serious problem confronting Palestinian society today is the spread of poverty and unemployment in the eyes of 32% of the public while 23% believe the most serious problem is the continuation of occupation and settlement activities, 19% say it is the absence of national unity due to the West Bank-Gaza Strip split, 15% believe the most serious problem is corruption in some public institutions, and 9% believe it is the siege and the closure of the Gaza border crossings.

 

(6) The Peace Process and Palestinian Options in the confrontation with Israeli occupation:

  • 52% support and 46% oppose the two-state solution but 57% believe such a solution is no longer practical due to continued settlement expansion.
  • 71% believe that that the chances for establishing a Palestinian state alongside Israel in the next five years are slim to non-existent.
  • But 68% oppose a one-state solution and only 30% support it.
  • 69% oppose a return to Palestinian-Israeli negotiations before Israel freezes settlement construction and accept the 1967 lines with swaps as a base for negotiations.
  • 73% support going to the UN, 61% support non-violent resistance, and 56% support a unilateral declaration of statehood.
  • 59% oppose a return to an armed intifada and 52% oppose dissolving the PA.
  • If Palestinians go to the UN, 80% believe Israel will stop the transfer of custom funds to the PA and 73% believe that the US will suspend its financial aid.
  • In the aftermath of a UN recognition of Palestinian statehood, 66% support imposing Palestinian sovereignty over area C and 70% support taking control over the crossings with Jordan.
  • 59% say they will participate in massive non-violent demonstrations that seek to break through check points and block roads used by the Israeli army and settlers.
  • 72% are worried that they or members of their family will be hurt by Israelis.
  • 81% believe that Israel's long term is to annex Palestinian territory occupied in 1967 and expel its population or deny them their rights.
  • 66% believe that the PLO's and PA's long term goal is to recover all or parts of the land that was occupied in 1967 while 24% believe the goal is to defeat Israel and recover the land of 1948 or destroy its Jewish population.

 

Findings show that 52% of the public support and 46% oppose the two state solution. Support for this solution stood at 49% in our poll last June and 57% in March 2010. Findings also show that a majority of 57% (compared to 55% last June) believe that the two-state solution is no longer practical due to expanded settlement construction while only 37% believe the two state solution remains viable because settlements can be dismantled or evacuated once an agreement is reached. Findings also show that 71% believe that the chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state in the next five years are slim to non-existent while 27% believe the chances are medium or high. Despite this, a majority of 68% oppose a one-state solution and only 30% support it.

 

Support for the two-state solution increases in the West Bank (55%) compared to the Gaza Strip (48%), in villages and towns (59%) compared to cities and refugee camps (51% each), among men (58%) compared to women (47%), among the somewhat religious (57%) compared to the religious (47%), among supporters of the peace process (58%) compared to those who oppose the peace process (40%), among supporters of Fateh and third parties (69% and 64% respectively) compared to supporters of Hamas (26%), among those over 50 years of age (63%) compared to those between 18 and 28 years of age (44%), and among those who finished elementary and preparatory schools (62% and 61% respectively) compared to the illiterates and the holders of BA degree (45% each).

 

Support for the one-state solution increases in the West Bank (34%) compared to the Gaza Strip (24%), among the somewhat religious (35%) compared to the religious (25%), among supporters of the peace process (34%) compared to those who are opposed to the peace process (26%), among supporters of Fateh and third parties (39% each) compared to supporters of Hamas (19%), among the illiterates (39%) compared to holders of BA degree (25%), and among those who work in the private sector (35%) compared to those who work in the public sector (30%).

 

Findings show that a large majority of 69% opposes and 29% support a return to negotiations with Israel before it freezes settlement construction and accepts the 1967 lines with swaps as a base for negotiations. Unconditional return to negotiations is opposed equally in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and by men and women. But opposition increases among the religious (73%) compared to the somewhat religious (66%), among those who oppose the peace process (80% compared to supporters of the peace process (64%) among supporters of Hamas and third parties (79% and 74% respectively) compared to supporters of Fateh (63%), and among holders of BA degree (71%) compared to illiterates (61%).

 

When asked about its views regarding six options that Palestinians have in their relations with Israel in the absence of negotiations, the public supported three and opposed three. Going to the UN for a recognition of a Palestinian state received the largest percentage of support (73%) while 26% opposed this option. 61% supported a non violent resistance while 38% opposed it. 56% supported a unilateral declaration of statehood while 43% opposed it. On the other hand a majority of 69% opposed the abandonment of the two-state solution in favor of a one-state solution and 28% supported it; 59% opposed a resort to armed confrontations and 39% supported it; and 52% opposed a dissolution of the PA and 44% supported it.

 

Support for going to the UN remains very high despite recognition by the public that such an option will trigger financial sanctions. Findings show that 73% of the public believe that in the event of a Palestinian request for the UN to recognize Palestine as a state, the US will suspend financial assistance to the PA. 80% believe that Israel in this case will suspend transfer of custom funds to the PA. 56% believe Europe too will suspend financial assistance to the PA.

 

Findings also show that public support for and understanding of the UN bid is not restricted to the step's symbolic meaning. Instead, 66% of the public believe the PA should impose its sovereignty over all Palestinian territories in the West Bank including so-called "Area C" and begin the construction of an airport and the deployment of security services in that area. Only 28% of the public oppose such a step. Furthermore, 70% support extension of PA control over the crossings with Jordan even if such a step would lead to the closure of the Allenby Bridge ; 24% of the public is opposed to this step. Overall, the public is divided into three groups on its view of the best means to force Israel to end its occupation of the Palestinian state once that state is recognized by the international community: 33% support resort to peaceful means, 32% support armed means, and 28% support return to negotiations. If massive popular demonstrations were to take place in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, with the aim of breaking through checkpoints and blocking roads used by the Israeli army and settlers, 59% of the public say they will participate in such demonstrations and 39% say they will not participate.  

 

Findings show that 72% of the Palestinian public are worried and 28% are not worried that they or members of their family will be hurt by Israelis or that their land will be confiscated or home demolished. Moreover, the level of perceived threat regarding the aspirations of Israel in the long run is very high. 81% of Palestinians think that Israel’s long term goal is to extend its borders to cover all the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea and expel its Arab citizens or deny them political rights. When asked to assess the long term goal of the PLO and the PA, 66% believed it was to recover all or part of the land occupied in 1967 while 24% believed that it was to defeat Israel and recover the 1948 land or destroy its Jewish population. The percentage of those who believe that the PLO's and the PA's long term goal is to defeat Israel and recover the 1948 land or destroy the Jewish population increases among women (28%) compared to men (20%), among the religious (25%) compared to the somewhat religious (22%), among those between 18 and 28 years old (28%) compared to those whose age is over 50 (15%), among the illiterates (29%) compared to holders of BA degree (18%), and among students, laborers, and housewives (28% each) compared to merchants, the retired, professionals, and employees (15%, 16%, 17%, and 18% respectively).

 

(7) Other Topics: Iran, Egypt, Syria, and American Elections:  

  • 82% believe that a great regional war will follow an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.
  • Now after President Morsi has consolidated his power in Egypt, 42% believe that Egyptian-Israeli relations will remain unchanged, 21% believe it will improve, and 31% say the two sides will return to conflict.
  • 90% condemn the armed attack against Egyptian soldiers on the Rafah border.
  • 79% support Syrian demonstrators against the regime while 13% stand with the regime and Assad.
  • If Obama wins the US presidential elections, 51% believe that such outcome will have no impact on Palestinian conditions while 32% believe it will have a negative impact and 9% believe it  will have a positive impact.
  • In light of the statement made by US presidential candidate Mitt Romney regarding the cause of the gap between Palestinian and Israeli economies, 54% believe the cause of the gap is occupation, 33% believe the cause lies in the differences between the Palestinian and Israeli economic and political systems and only 7% attribute it to culture.

 

Iran: 43% believe that Israel will attack Iran's nuclear facilities in the coming months but 51% believe it will not. If Israel does attack Iran, 82% believe that such an attack will trigger a great regional war while 16% believe the attack will not lead to such a war.

 

Egypt: With Egyptian president Morsi consolidating his power, 42% believe Egyptian-Israeli relations will not change but 31% believe relations will go back to conflict and 21% believe relations will improve. Almost two thirds (64%) believe that Israel stood behind the armed attack carried out against Egyptian position along the borders with Rafah recently while 12% blame the attack on Egyptian terrorist groups or Bedouins from Sinai  and only 2% believe Hamas stood behind the attack. 90% of respondents condemn the attack 7% do not condemn it.

 

Arab Spring and Syria: Findings show that 48% believe that the Arab Spring will leave a positive impact on the Palestinian cause in the next year or two while 28% believe it will have no impact and 21% believe the impact will be negative. Findings also show that 79% of the public support the Syrian rebels while only 13% support the regime and Assad.

 

American Elections: A majority of 51% believe that an Obama victory in the upcoming American presidential elections will have no impact on the Palestinians while 32% believe it will have a negative impact and only 9% believe it will have a positive impact. Findings also show that the overwhelming majority of respondents reject the statement made by US presidential candidate Mitt Romney placing the cause of the wide gap between the Palestinian and Israeli economies on culture. Only 7% of the respondents agreed with Romney's statement while 54% saw occupation and 33% saw different political or economic systems as the causes for the wide gap between the two economies.

 

PSR Poll No. 45

13-15 September 2012

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

00)

From among the following satellite news stations, which one you watched most during the last two months?

 

1) Al Arabia

14.0%

9.1%

22.0%

 

2) Al Jazeera

39.3%

42.7%

33.7%

 

3) Al Hurra

1.3%

0.7%

2.4%

 

4) Al Manar

3.9%

5.1%

1.9%

 

5) Palestine TV

17.8%

21.8%

11.3%

 

6) Alaqsa

8.2%

2.8%

17.1%

 

7) Do not watch TV

8.7%

9.9%

6.8%

 

8) Others

5.6%

6.8%

3.6%

 

9) Do not have a dish

0.3%

0.2%

0.6%

 

10) DK/NA

0.8%

1.0%

0.5%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

01)

In general, how would you describe conditions of the Palestinians in the Palestinian areas in Gaza Strip these days? 

 

1) Very good

3.7%

4.1%

3.2%

 

2) Good 

21.0%

19.1%

24.1%

 

3) So so

19.0%

17.9%

20.9%

 

4) Bad

36.2%

40.1%

29.9%

 

5) Very bad

16.0%

12.3%

22.0%

 

6) DK/NA

4.1%

6.6%

0.0%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

02)

In general, how would you describe conditions of the Palestinians in the Palestinian areas in the West Bank these days? 

 

1) Very good

3.1%

1.7%

5.4%

 

2) Good 

15.7%

12.8%

20.4%

 

3) So so

19.5%

19.0%

20.3%

 

4) Bad

38.1%

42.6%

30.8%

 

5) Very bad

22.2%

23.1%

20.8%

 

6) DK/NA

1.4%

0.8%

2.3%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

03)

Generally, do you see yourself as: 

 

1) Religious

44.3%

39.3%

52.6%

 

2) Somewhat religious

50.2%

56.5%

40.0%

 

3) Not religious

5.0%

4.1%

6.5%

 

4) DK/NA

0.4%

0.1%

1.0%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

04)

Generally, do you see yourself as: 

 

1) Supportive of the peace process

55.9%

57.4%

53.4%

 

2) Opposed to the peace process

24.9%

25.9%

23.3%

 

3) Between support and opposition

17.7%

15.4%

21.5%

 

4) DK/NA

1.5%

1.3%

1.8%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

05)

Do you think that there is corruption in PA institutions under the control of President Abu Mazin

 

1) Yes

78.7%

79.9%

76.7%

 

2) No

13.3%

11.1%

16.8%

 

3) DK-NA

8.0%

9.0%

6.5%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

06)

Do you think that there is corruption in PA institutions under the control of the dismissed government in the Gaza Strip?

 

1) Yes

63.1%

60.2%

68.0%

 

2) No

19.4%

16.1%

24.7%

 

3) DK-NA

17.5%

23.7%

7.3%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

07)

In your view, is there a press freedom in the West Bank? 

 

1) Yes

23.9%

28.2%

16.9%

 

2) To some extent

41.9%

39.9%

45.2%

 

3) No

31.2%

28.7%

35.5%

 

4) DK-NA

2.9%

3.2%

2.4%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

08)

In your view, is there a press freedom in the Gaza Strip?  

 

1) Yes

16.8%

16.8%

16.6%

 

2) To some extent

35.3%

32.2%

40.6%

 

3) No

36.6%

33.7%

41.4%

 

4) DK-NA

11.3%

17.3%

1.4%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

09)

In your view, can people in the West Bank today criticize the authority without fear?

 

1) Yes

42.0%

48.4%

31.6%

 

2) No

54.0%

48.2%

63.6%

 

3) DK-NA

3.9%

3.4%

4.8%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

10)

In your view, can people in the Gaza Strip today criticize the authority without fear? 

 

1) Yes

25.8%

27.2%

23.5%

 

2) No

61.5%

54.2%

73.5%

 

3) DK-NA

12.7%

18.6%

3.0%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

11)

Would you say that these days your security and safety, and that of your family, is assured or not assured? 

 

1) Completely assured

8.8%

5.5%

14.0%

 

2) Assured

50.0%

50.0%

50.1%

 

3) Not assured  

36.6%

40.9%

29.5%

 

4) Not assured at all 

4.5%

3.5%

6.1%

 

5) DK/NA

0.1%

0.1%

0.3%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

12)

Do current political, security, and economic conditions lead you to seek emigration abroad? 

 

1) Certainly seek to emigrate

15.9%

13.3%

20.2%

 

2) Seek emigration

17.7%

15.4%

21.5%

 

3) Do not seek emigration

36.9%

40.2%

31.6%

 

4) Certainly do not seek emigration

29.0%

31.1%

25.5%

 

5) DK/NA

0.4%

0.0%

1.2%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

13)

Tell us how do you evaluate the performance of the dismissed government of Ismail Haniyeh in the Gaza Strip? Is it good or bad? 

 

1) Very Good

8.4%

7.7%

9.5%

 

2) Good

26.3%

28.3%

23.1%

 

3) Neither good nor bad

25.6%

22.3%

30.9%

 

4) Bad

19.1%

16.9%

22.6%

 

5) Very Bad

7.3%

3.8%

13.1%

 

6) No Opinion/Don’t know

13.3%

20.9%

0.8%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

14)

Tell us how do you evaluate the performance of the government headed by Salam Fayyad? Is it good or bad? 

 

1) Very Good

3.0%

2.3%

4.0%

 

2) Good

19.3%

17.0%

23.1%

 

3) Neither good nor bad

22.8%

22.0%

24.0%

 

4) Bad

32.2%

34.6%

28.2%

 

5) Very Bad

18.1%

17.9%

18.3%

 

6) No Opinion/Don’t know

4.7%

6.1%

2.4%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

15)

Are you satisfied or not satisfied with the performance of Mahmud Abbas since his election as president of the PA? 

 

1) Very satisfied

5.4%

4.8%

6.5%

 

2) Satisfied

40.8%

45.3%

33.4%

 

3) Not satisfied 

34.3%

35.7%

32.2%

 

4) Not satisfied at all

15.6%

10.4%

24.3%

 

5) DK/NA

3.8%

3.9%

3.7%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

16)

If new presidential elections are to take place today, and Mahmud Abbas was nominated by Fateh and Ismail Haniyeh was nominated by Hamas, whom would you vote for? 

 

1) Mahmoud Abbas

50.5%

49.4%

51.8%

 

2) Ismael Haniyyah

39.6%

39.3%

40.0%

 

4) DK/NA

10.0%

11.3%

8.2%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

17)

And if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti representing Fateh and Ismail Haniyeh representing Hamas, whom would you vote for? 

 

1) Marwan Barghouti

61.3%

61.0%

61.7%

 

2) Ismael Haniyyah

31.9%

31.1%

33.0%

 

4) DK/NA

6.8%

7.9%

5.3%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

18)

And what if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti, Ismail Haniyeh, and Mahmud Abbas, to whom would you vote? 

 

1) Marwan Barghouti

44.7%

41.2%

49.6%

 

2) Ismael Haniyyah

29.3%

27.7%

31.6%

 

3. Mahmud Abbas

20.4%

24.0%

15.3%

 

5) DK/NA

5.6%

7.0%

3.5%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

20)

If new elections agreed to by all factions are held today and the same lists that took part in the last PLC elections were nominated, for whom would you vote? 

 

1) Alternative

0.9%

0.8%

0.9%

 

2) Independent Palestine

3.7%

4.0%

3.3%

 

3) Abu Ali Mustafa

4.4%

4.6%

4.3%

 

4) Abu al Abbas

1.3%

1.4%

1.2%

 

5) Freedom and social justice

0.6%

0.8%

0.4%

 

6) Change and reform

27.5%

25.3%

30.8%

 

7) National coalition for justice and democracy

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

 

8) Third way(headed by Salam Fayyad)

0.9%

0.9%

0.7%

 

9) Freedom and independence

0.9%

1.5%

0.0%

 

10) Palestinian justice

0.1%

0.0%

0.3%

 

11) Fateh

37.1%

35.2%

39.8%

 

12) None of the above/ DK/NA/ Do not remember

22.5%

25.5%

18.1%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

21-1)

From among the following vital national goals, which in your view should the first most important one and which should be the second most important goal that the Palestinian people should strive to achieve? 

 

1) Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 borders and the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital

44.0%

46.0%

40.6%

 

2) Obtain the right of return to refuges to their 1948 towns and villages

29.9%

25.3%

37.6%

 

3) Establish a democratic political system that respects freedoms and rights of Palestinians

11.1%

12.6%

8.6%

 

4) Build a pious or moral individual and a religious society

15.0%

16.1%

13.3%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

21-2)

From among the following vital national goals, which in your view should the first most important one and which should be the second most important goal that the Palestinian people should strive to achieve? 

 

1) Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 borders and the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital

23.3%

22.0%

25.4%

 

2) Obtain the right of return to refuges to their 1948 towns and villages

37.3%

39.2%

34.3%

 

3) Establish a democratic political system that respects freedoms and rights of Palestinians

18.7%

17.3%

21.1%

 

4) Build a pious or moral individual and a religious society

20.7%

21.5%

19.2%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

22)

The Palestinian society confronts today various problems, like the continuation of occupation and settlements, the spread of unemployment and poverty, the lack of national unity due to the split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the continuation of the siege and blockade of the Gaza Strip and the closure of its border crossings, the spread of corruption in public institutions, and others. Tell us, what in your opinion, is the problem you see as the most fundamental, the one that must be on the top priority of the Palestinian Authority?

 

1) Continuation of occupation and settlements

23.4%

22.9%

24.0%

 

2) Spread of unemployment and poverty

32.4%

37.9%

23.3%

 

3) Lack of national unity due to the split

19.3%

15.2%

26.0%

 

4) Continuation of the siege and blockade of the Gaza Strip and the closure of its border crossings

8.5%

2.4%

18.5%

 

5) The spread of corruption in public institutions

15.3%

20.5%

6.7%

 

88) DK/NA

0.2%

0.2%

0.1%

 

99) Other

1.0%

0.8%

1.4%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

23)

The PA has announced its intentions to hold local elections in the West Bank next month, do you think elections will take place on time as announced by the PA government? 

 

1) Certainly yes

3.8%

3.6%

4.3%

 

2) YES

33.7%

37.6%

27.3%

 

3) NO

39.0%

39.8%

37.7%

 

4) Certainly no

11.4%

8.2%

16.7%

 

5) DK-NA

12.0%

10.8%

14.1%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

24)

[Ask only West Bank respondents outside refugee camps] Local elections will take place in the West Bank next month with the participation of all factions except Hamas. Do you think you will or will not participate in the upcoming local elections next July?

 

1) Certainly will participate

7.1%

7.1%

0.0%

 

2) Will participate

40.2%

40.2%

0.0%

 

3) Will not participate

43.4%

43.4%

0.0%

 

4) Certainly will not participate

6.4%

6.4%

0.0%

 

5) DK/NA

3.1%

3.1%

0.0%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

25)

Do you think these upcoming local elections will be fair or unfair? 

 

1) Certainly fair

4.1%

3.3%

5.5%

 

2) Fair

40.1%

42.4%

36.4%

 

3) Unfair

33.4%

35.8%

29.5%

 

4) Certainly unfair

10.1%

6.9%

15.3%

 

5) DK/NA

12.3%

11.6%

13.3%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

26)

President Abbas says that he will not form a reconciliation government until Hamas allows the election commission to return to work in the Gaza Strip and agrees to holding elections as soon as possible. Do you agree or disagree with the position of the president?

 

1) Certainly agree

9.3%

7.2%

12.6%

 

2) Agree

48.3%

49.1%

47.1%

 

3) Disagree

29.2%

32.2%

24.2%

 

4) Certainly Disagree

6.1%

4.3%

9.2%

 

5) DK/NA

7.1%

7.2%

6.9%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

27)

Given the failure of the dialogue between Fateh and Hamas, what are your expectations for the future of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip? 

 

1) Unity will resume in the near future

13.6%

12.8%

14.8%

 

2) Unity will resume but will take a long time

40.4%

38.3%

43.9%

 

3) Unity will not resume and two separate entities will emerge

41.5%

44.5%

36.5%

 

4) DK/NA

4.5%

4.4%

4.7%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

28)

Prime Minister Fayyad proposes to hold legislative elections even if Hamas prevents the participation of the Gaza Strip in those elections as Gazans can nonetheless nominate themselves. Do you support or oppose Fayyad's suggestion? 

 

1) Certainly support

2.3%

2.6%

1.7%

 

2) Support

25.4%

27.2%

22.3%

 

3) Oppose

51.5%

54.6%

46.5%

 

4) Certainly oppose

14.5%

9.3%

23.1%

 

5) DK/NA

6.4%

6.3%

6.5%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

29)

In your view, if legislative elections were to take place as proposed by Fayyad and Gazans do take part in the nomination but not in voting which in this case would be restricted to the West Bank, how do you think such elections would affect the chances of reconciliation?

 

1) Will make reconciliation closer

10.1%

10.3%

9.8%

 

2) Will have no impact

20.0%

20.8%

18.7%

 

3) Will consolidate separation

63.0%

61.6%

65.1%

 

4) DK/NA

6.9%

7.3%

6.4%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

30)

There is a lot of talk these days about the financial crisis in which the PA finds itself and about the concern that it might not be able to pay salaries to the public sector. In your view, what is the reason behind the current financial crisis? 

 

1) The international financial crisis and the inability of the donor countries to fulfill their commitments

37.0%

33.3%

43.0%

 

2) Revolutions in the Arab countries and the Arab preoccupation with these revolutions

15.5%

14.7%

17.0%

 

3) The cessation of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations

27.6%

26.2%

30.0%

 

4) Others (specify ------)

19.8%

25.8%

9.9%

 

5) DK/NA

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

31)

Do you think this financial crisis is real or manufactured?

 

1) Certainly real

9.1%

7.8%

11.3%

 

2) Real

41.4%

39.4%

44.6%

 

3) certainly manufactured

38.3%

43.4%

29.9%

 

4) manufactured

6.1%

4.9%

8.2%

 

5) DK/NA

5.0%

4.4%

6.0%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

32)

Do you think the PA will be able to pay salaries to the public sector next year? 

 

1) Certainly yes

6.5%

5.3%

8.6%

 

2) YES

46.9%

47.4%

46.2%

 

3) NO

32.9%

33.5%

31.9%

 

4) Certainly no

4.1%

3.8%

4.6%

 

5) DK-NA

9.6%

10.0%

8.8%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

33)

The PA says that it confronts today a big financial deficit in its budget and soon this year it might not be able to pay salaries. Two proposed options have been offered: either to raise taxes or transfer about 25000 public sector employees to early retirement. If these were the only two choices, which one would you choose?

 

1) Tax increase

7.5%

7.2%

8.0%

 

2) Early retirement

30.0%

26.6%

35.5%

 

3) Both

10.0%

7.1%

14.9%

 

4) Neither

50.8%

58.2%

38.5%

 

5) DK/NA

1.7%

0.9%

3.1%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

34)

If you think there are other options to solve the financial crisis confronting the PA, which of the following you would choose? 

 

1) Dissolve the PA

33.6%

32.7%

35.1%

 

2) Return to negotiation in order to obtain greater donor support

43.7%

43.5%

44.1%

 

3) Other; specify ---------------------------

12.3%

16.2%

5.8%

 

4) DK/NA

10.4%

7.6%

15.1%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

35)

Prices of food and gasoline have increased and so did taxes, a Palestinian in Gaza burned himself and others in the West Bank tried to do the same, demonstrations and protests against price increases and government decisions have erupted. What do you expect to happen now? Will the demonstrations and protests gain momentum or will most people remain passive and stay home?

 

1) Certainly momentum will be gained and protests will escalate

40.7%

39.4%

42.7%

 

2) momentum will be gained and protests will escalate

35.5%

35.4%

35.6%

 

3) no momentum will be gained and protests will not escalate

18.6%

19.8%

16.6%

 

4) Certainly no momentum will be gained and protests will not escalate

3.4%

4.1%

2.3%

 

5) DK/NA

1.8%

1.2%

2.7%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

36)

[This question was asked to respondents who answered “Confrontations will not continue”]

Why in your view no momentum will be gained and protests will not escalate? [Open ended question]

 

1) Protests will lead no where

12.2%

14.1%

8.1%

 

2) The PA will work hard to resolve the issue and will respond to people’s demands

29.6%

26.9%

35.1%

 

3) Fear of oppression

20.0%

12.2%

36.0%

 

4) People are depressed and hopeless

4.0%

5.9%

0.0%

 

5) People want to live in stability and order

2.2%

3.2%

0.0%

 

6) Lack of Awareness, group work and participation

10.7%

13.1%

5.6%

 

7) Because those demonstrations and protests are caused either by infiltrators, or they invisibly control it

3.5%

4.4%

1.5%

 

8) Because of occupation

1.3%

0.7%

2.5%

 

9) People will adapt to the new situation

2.6%

3.1%

1.4%

 

99) Others

14.1%

16.2%

9.8%

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

37)

And what about the Gaza Strip? Do you think demonstrations and protests will erupt there as happened in the West Bank? 

 

1) Certainly yes

21.8%

22.6%

20.4%

 

2) YES