PSR - Survey Research Unit: Poll No. 47 - Full analysis

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


 

10 April 2013  

 

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (47)

Popularity of Hamas and Haniyeh drops and the popularity of Fateh and Abbas rises but pessimism regarding reconciliation prevails once again and a majority believes the new Obama administration will not succeed in reviving the peace process

 

28-30 March 2013

 

Table of Contents:  

  1. Presidential, Legislative, and Local Elections

  2. Domestic Conditions

  3.  Reconciliation

  4. Most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems confronting Palestinians today

  5. Peace Process

  6. Obama’s Visit

  7. Main results in numbers

 

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 28-30 March 2013. The  period before the poll witnessed the formation of a new Israeli government and a visit by the US president to Israel and Palestine. The period also witnessed the development of a new form of popular resistance against settlements through the establishment of tent encampments in areas threatened by settlement expansion. Reconciliation efforts between Fatah and Hamas failed to make progress despite the fact that the election commission has completed its voter registration campaign in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. This press release covers public evaluation of the general West Bank and Gaza conditions, elections, reconciliation, public evaluation of the performance of the governments of Salam Fayyad and Ismail Haniyeh, the internal balance of power between Fateh and Hamas, and the views of the public on the most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems Palestinians confront today. It also covers issues related to the peace process, Obama’s visit, and Palestinian options in the confrontation against occupation. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%.

 

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

 

Main Findings:

 

Findings of the first quarter of 2013 indicate a return to pre Gaza war balance between Fatah and Hamas. The popularity of Hamas and Ismail Haniyeh, the prime minister of the dismissed government, drops and Fatah’s popularity and that of president Abbas rises. Last December, the Gaza war gave Hamas and Haniyeh greater credibility and popularity while decreasing that of Fatah and Abbas. Yet, positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip remains higher than positive evaluation of conditions in the West Bank. Moreover, perception of safety and security remains higher in the Gaza Strip than in the West Bank. Positive evaluation of the performance of the Haniyeh government is much higher than the positive evaluation of the performance of the Fayyad government. Nonetheless, about half of Gazans say they would like to immigrate from the Strip while a little over a quarter of West Bankers say they wish to immigrate.

Findings also indicate a dramatic reversal in the level of optimism regarding the chances for reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas. Indeed, about half of the public believes that a successful reconciliation and reunification requires regime change in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip or at least in one of the two areas. Furthermore, two-thirds to three-quarters believe that reconciliation is impossible under current conditions in which restrictions are imposed on the freedoms of supporters of Fatah or Hamas or in which no date is set for new elections.

Finally, findings indicate continued pessimism regarding the chances for reviving the peace process in the aftermath of the Obama visit. An overwhelming majority believes that president Obama will not succeed in pressing Israel to freeze settlement construction. Perhaps due to these conclusions, the percentage of those who say that their feelings toward president Obama have changed to the worse is four times higher than the percentage of those who say their feelings have changed to the better.  Given the promised US financial assistance to the PA, a clear majority believes that this support will not be sufficient to resolve the PA’s financial problem but a majority believes that such support might in fact deter the PA from fighting Israel in the international arena including at the International Criminal Court.

 

(1) Presidential, Legislative, and Local Elections:

 

If new presidential elections are held today and only two were nominated, Abbas would receive the vote of 52% and Haniyeh 41% of the vote of those participating. The rate of participation in such elections would reach 62%. Three months ago, Abbas received the support of 45% and Haniyeh 48%. In this poll, in the Gaza Strip, Abbas receives 53% and Haniyeh 44% and in the West Bank Abbas receives 52% and Haniyeh 39%. If presidential elections were between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, the former would receive 60% and the latter would receive 33% of the participants’ votes. The rate of participation in this case would reach 69%. In our December poll Barghouti received 51% of the vote and Haniyeh 42%.

If presidential elections were between three: Mahmud Abbas, Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, Barghouti would receive the largest percentage (38%) followed by Haniyeh (31%), and Abbas (26%). The rate of participation in this case would reach 73%. In our previous poll last September, Barghouti received 29%, Haniyeh 39%, and Abbas 27%.  

If new legislative elections are held today with the participation of all factions, 71% say they would participate in such elections. Of those who would participate, 29% say they would vote for Hamas and 41% say they would vote for Fatah, 11% would vote for all other third parties combined, and 20% are undecided. Vote for Hamas in the Gaza Strip stands in this poll at 33% and in the West Bank at 27%. Vote for Fatah in the Gaza Strip stands in this poll at 42% and in the West Bank at 40%. These results indicate an increase in Fatah’s popularity compared to our December results when it stood at 36% (38% in the Gaza Strip and 34% in the West Bank). By contrast, Hamas’ popularity dropped six percentage points in the combined West Bank and the Gaza Strip.   

 

(2) Domestic Conditions:

 

Positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip drops from 43% three months ago to 32% in this poll while 40% say conditions are bad or very bad. Similarly, positive evaluation of conditions in the West Bank drops from 35% three months ago to 29% in this poll while 44% say conditions are bad or very bad.

Perception of corruption in PA institutions in the West Bank stands at 78% in this poll compared to 74% three months ago. Perception of corruption in the public institutions of Hamas’ Gaza government stands at 64% compared to 53% three months ago. 

21% say there is, and 44% say there is to some extent, press freedom in the West Bank. By contrast, 16% say there is, and 35% say there is to some extent, press freedom in the Gaza Strip.  Similarly, 33% of the Palestinian public say people in the West Bank can criticize the authority in the West Bank without fear. By contrast, 25% of the public say people in the Gaza Strip can criticize the authorities in Gaza without fear. These results indicate a decrease in the perception of freedom to criticize authorities in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip compared to results obtained three months ago.

Perception of safety and security in the West Bank stands at 54% and in the Gaza Strip at 67%. Three months ago these percentages stood at 70% in the Gaza Strip and 60% in the West Bank. Yet, despite the high level of safety perception in the Gaza Strip, findings show that the percentage of Gazans who say they seek immigration to other countries stands at 49%; in the West Bank, the percentage stands at 27%. Last December these percentages stood at 41% and 22% respectively. 

Positive evaluation of the performance of the Haniyeh government drops sharply from 56% three months ago to 40% in this poll and positive evaluation of the performance of the Fayyad government drops also from 34% to 25% during the same period. Percentage of satisfaction with the performance of President Abbas drops from 54% three months ago to 49% in this poll. Dissatisfaction with the president performance stands today at 49% compared to 44% three months ago.  

 

(3)Reconciliation:

 

In the absence of visible progress in the Fateh-Hamas reconciliation dialogue, percentage of optimism about the chances for reunification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip drops sharply from 39% three months ago to 18% in this poll. Moreover, the belief that unity is impossible and that two separate entities will emerge increases from 18% to 33% during the same period. Gazans (34%) and West Bankers (33%) are similar in their expectations that unity will not return. That expectation however increases among men (39%) compared to women (27%), among those who oppose the peace process (46%) compared to those who support the peace process (27%), among supporters of third parties-- parties other than Fatah and Hamas (41%) compared to supporters of Fatah and Hamas (31% and 27% respectively), and among merchants, professionals, employees, and students (45%, 44%, 38%, and 36% respectively) compared to housewives and farmers (23% and 33% respectively).

Findings show that 37% say that ending the split requires regime change in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip while 12% say it requires regime change in the Gaza Strip only and an identical percentage believes that it requires regime change in the West Bank. Only 34% say that restoring unity does not require regime change in the West Bank or the Gaza Strip. The belief than ending the split requires regime change in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip is slightly higher among Gazans (39%) compared to West Bankers (36%). It is also higher among residents of refugee camps (48%) compared to residents of villages and cities (36% and 35% respectively), among those who identify themselves as somewhat religious (38%) compared to those who identify themselves as religious (34%), among those who oppose the peace process (44%) compared to those who support the peace process (34%), among supporters of third parties and those who do not support any of the parties (50% and 44% respectively) compared to supporters of Fatah and Hamas (29% and 24% respectively), among men (39%) compared to women (34%), among refugees (40%) compared to non-refugees (34%), among professionals, retirees, employees, and students (48%, 41%, 39%, and 37% respectively) compared to farmers, housewives, and laborers (31%, 33%, and 34% respectively).

We asked respondents about conditions under which they believe reconciliation cannot succeed. About three quarters (74%) believes that reconciliation will not succeed without first ending the restrictions on freedoms enjoyed by supporters of Hamas in the West Bank and a similar percentage (72%) believes that it will not succeed without ending restrictions on freedoms enjoyed by supporters of Fatah in the Gaza Strip. Similarly, 66% say it will not succeed without first agreeing on an election date; 61% say it will not succeed if Hamas continues to reject agreements signed by the PLO with Israel; 58% say it will not succeed if security coordination with Israel in the West Bank continues; another 58% say it will not succeed if the PA continues to recognize Israel and the Oslo agreements; and 49% say it will not succeed as along as Hamas insists on keeping its al Qassam armed wing in the Gaza Strip.

The belief that reconciliation cannot succeed if Hamas insists on keeping its armed wing in the Gaza Strip increases in the West Bank (53%) compared to the Gaza Strip (43%), in refugee camps (63%) compared to cities and villages (49% and 41% respectively), among the somewhat religious (52%) compared to the religious (44%), among supporters of Fatah and those who support none of the parties (57% and 54% respectively) compared to supporters of Hamas and third parties (35% and 39% respectively), among men (52%) compared to women (47%), among the retirees, merchants, and laborers (64%, 58% and 56% respectively) compared to farmers, students and housewives (37%, 44%, and 46% respectively).

By contrast, the belief that reconciliation cannot succeed if security coordination with the Israeli security services continues increases among Gazans (63%) compared to West Bankers (55%), among residents of refugee camps and cities (62% and 59% respectively) compared to residents of villages (53%), among the religious (60%) compared to the somewhat religious (56%), among those who oppose the peace process (75%) compared to those who support the peace process (50%), among Hamas supporters, supporters of third parties, and those who support none of the parties (67%, 66%, and 60% respectively) compared to supporters of Fatah (48%), among men (65%) compared to women (51%), among retirees, merchants, and professionals (71%, 68%, and 65% respectively) compared to housewives, farmers, and laborers (50%, 53%, and 58% respectively).

 

4) Most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems confronting Palestinians today:

 

46% believe that the first most vital Palestinian goal should be to end Israeli occupation in the areas occupied in 1967 and build a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital. By contrast, 31% believe the first most vital goal should be to obtain the right of return of refugees to their 1948 towns and villages, 14% believe that it should be to build a pious or moral individual and a religious society, one that applies all Islamic teachings, and 10% believe that the first and most vital goal should be to establish a democratic political system that respects freedoms and rights of Palestinians.

The most serious problem confronting Palestinian society today is the spread of poverty and unemployment in the eyes of 28% of the public while 26% say it is the absence of national unity due to the West Bank-Gaza Strip split, 22% believe the most serious problem is the continuation of occupation and settlement activities, 15% believe the most serious problem is corruption in some public institutions, and 7% believe it is the siege and the closure of the Gaza border crossings.

 

5) The Peace Process:

 

55% support and 44% oppose a two-state solution based on the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside the state of Israel. But 56% believe that the two-state solution is no longer practical due to settlement expansion and 41% think that it remains practical. Moreover, 68% believe that the chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state next to the state of Israel during the next five years are low or non-existent while 31% believe the chances are medium or high.  Nonetheless, only 29% support a one-state solution based on equality for Arabs and Jews and 70% oppose it. Moreover, 55% support the Saudi (Arab) Peace Initiative but only 42% support and 56% oppose mutual recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people.

 

Findings show that 71% are worried and 28% are not worried that they or members of their families would be hurt by Israelis or their land confiscated or homes demolished. Similarly, 59% believe that Israel’s long term goal is to expand its borders to include all territories between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea and expel their Palestinian population, 21% believe that Israel’s aim is to annex all occupied territories while denying Palestinians their political rights. 18% believe that Israel’s long term aspiration is to withdraw from all or parts of the 1967-occupied territories after ensuring its security.  By contrast, when asked about the long term goal of the PLO and the PA, 64% said that it is to  recover all or some of the Palestinian territories occupied in 1967, 15% said it is to defeat Israel and recover the 1948 territories, and 11% said it is to defeat Israel and destroy its Jewish population.  

63% support a resort to popular non-violent resistance and 71% believe, and 26% do not believe, that creating facts on the ground, such as the placement of tent encampments in area C, would be an effective means of confronting settlement expansion and protecting land threatened by settlers. By contrast, 40% support a return to an armed intifada and an identical percentage supports the dissolution of the PA.

 

6) Obama’s Visit:

 

In the aftermath of Obama’s visit to Israel and the Palestinian territories, a majority of 55% believes that the US administration will not succeed in reviving the peace process and bringing the two sides to the negotiating table. 42% believe it will succeed in that goal. Moreover, 70% believe that the American administration will not succeed in pressuring Israel to freeze settlement construction and 28% believe it will succeed in that.

The public is split regarding the preferred role for the US in the peace process: 45% want a stronger US role and 46% want to see the US out of the peace process. In June 2010, two thirds (66%) wanted a stronger US role and only 27% wanted the US out of the process. But in March 2011, after the US used its veto power to block a UN Security Council resolution condemning settlements, 69% said they opposed a larger US role in the peace process and only 27% said they supported a larger US role. Moreover, in the aftermath of Obama’s visit to Israel and Palestine, 29% say their feelings for president Obama have changed to the worse while only 8% say their feelings have turned to the better. 61% said their feelings did not change.

Despite the US announcement that it will release US$500 million to the PA, a large majority of 71% does not believe such financial support will end the PA’s financial crisis. However, 62% believe that the PA will now be deterred from confronting Israel at the international arena, including at the International Criminal Court, since it has to rely so much on US financial support.  The perception that the PA will now be deterred from confronting Israel at international forums due to Palestinian high dependence on US financial support increases among West Bankers (66%) compared to Gazans (57%), among residents of cities and villages (63% and 62% respectively) compared to residents of refugee camps (55%), among the religious (66%) compared to the somewhat religious (61%), among those who oppose the peace process (69%) compared to those who support the peace process (59%), among Hamas supporters (72%) compared to Fatah supporters, supporters of third parties and supporters of the none of the parties (54%, 60%, and 61% respectively), among men (66%) compared to women (59%), among non-refugees (66%) compared to refugees (58%), and among farmers, merchants, and laborers (83%, 75%, and 69% respectively) compared to retirees and students (32% and 52% respectively).

 

 

 

PSR Poll No. 47

13-15 December 2012

 

   

Total%

west bank%

Gaza Strip%

00 )

From among the following satellite news stations, which one you watched most during the last two months?

 

1) al Arabia

9.5%

6.1%

15.2%

2) al Jazeera

38.4%

40.7%

34.8%

3) al Hurra

.8%

.2%

1.8%

4) al Manar

2.8%

3.5%

1.6%

5) Palestine TV

18.1%

21.0%

13.3%

6) aqsa

11.1%

4.7%

21.6%

7) Do not watch TV

7.0%

6.9%

7.2%

8) others

11.0%

15.3%

3.9%

9) Do not have a dish

.3%

.3%

.2%

10) DK/NA

1.0%

1.3%

.4%

1)

In general, how would you describe conditions of the Palestinians in the Palestinian areas in Gaza Strip these days?

 

1) Very good

6.8%

7.4%

5.7%

2) Good

25.2%

23.4%

28.1%

3) so so

25.9%

24.6%

28.2%

4) Bad

29.4%

32.1%

25.0%

5) Very bad

10.3%

8.7%

13.0%

6) DK/NA

2.3%

3.8%

0.0%

2)

In general, how would you describe conditions of the Palestinians in the Palestinian areas in the West Bank these days?

 

1) Very good

5.5%

4.3%

7.6%

2) Good

23.1%

17.3%

32.7%

3) so so

27.2%

26.5%

28.5%

4) Bad

31.1%

35.8%

23.3%

5) Very bad

12.4%

15.9%

6.7%

6) DK/NA

.7%

.3%

1.3%

3)

Generally, do you see yourself as:

 

1) Religious

45.0%

39.2%

54.5%

2) somewhat religious

49.8%

55.4%

40.6%

3) not religious

5.1%

5.2%

5.0%

4) DK/NA

.1%

.2%

0.0%

4)

Generally, do you see yourself as:

 

1) supportive of the peace process

56.5%

55.5%

58.1%

2) opposed to the peace process

23.0%

24.6%

20.3%

3) between support and opposition

19.4%

18.2%

21.4%

4) DK/NA

1.1%

1.6%

.2%

5)

Do you think that there is corruption in PA institutions under the control of President Abu Mazin?

 

1) yes

77.6%

80.7%

72.4%

 

2) No

14.4%

10.1%

21.5%

 

3) DK-NA

8.0%

9.1%

6.1%

6)

Do you think that there is corruption in PA institutions under the control of the dismissed government in the Gaza Strip

 

1) yes

64.4%

62.4%

67.7%

2) No

20.6%

17.0%

26.5%

3) DK-NA

15.0%

20.5%

5.9%

7)

In your view, is there a press freedom in the West Bank?

 

1) yes

20.5%

21.2%

19.5%

2) to some extent

44.0%

40.8%

49.3%

3) no

32.5%

34.3%

29.5%

4) DK-NA

3.0%

3.7%

1.8%

8)

In your view, is there a press freedom in the Gaza Strip?

 

1) yes

16.1%

14.6%

18.6%

2) to some extent

34.7%

31.8%

39.4%

3) no

40.5%

40.3%

40.7%

4) DK-NA

8.7%

13.3%

1.3%

9)

In your view, can people in the West Bank today criticize the authority without fear?

 

1) yes

32.9%

37.8%

24.8%

2) no

64.0%

60.0%

70.6%

3) DK-NA

3.1%

2.3%

4.5%

10)

In your view, can people in the Gaza Strip today criticize the authority without fear?

 

yes

24.9%

26.5%

22.3%

no

65.5%

59.4%

75.5%

DK-NA

9.6%

14.1%

2.1%

11)

Would you say that these days your security and safety, and that of your family, is assured or not assured?

 

1) Completely assured

7.2%

3.9%

12.8%

2) Assured

52.0%

50.5%

54.4%

3) Not assured

36.0%

40.4%

28.8%

4) Not assured at all

4.7%

5.1%

4.1%

5) DK/NA

.0%

.1%

0.0%

12)

Do current political, security, and economic conditions lead you to seek emigration abroad?

 

1) Certainly seek to emigrate

15.0%

10.3%

22.6%

2) Seek emigration

20.3%

16.5%

26.4%

3) Do not seek emigration

34.7%

39.6%

26.6%

4) Certainly do not seek emigration

30.0%

33.5%

24.3%

5) DK/NA

.1%

.1%

0.0%

13)

Tell us how do you evaluate the performance of the dismissed government of Ismail Haniyeh in the Gaza Strip? Is it good or bad?

 

1) Very Good

11.2%

10.7%

12.1%

2) Good

28.9%

32.1%

23.5%

3) Neither good nor bad

27.6%

24.2%

33.3%

4) Bad

15.0%

12.4%

19.4%

5) Very Bad

6.9%

4.2%

11.5%

6) No Opinion/Don’t know

10.3%

16.4%

.2%

14)

Tell us how do you evaluate the performance of the government headed by Salam Fayyad? Is it good or bad?

 

1) Very Good

3.5%

3.0%

4.4%

2) Good

21.1%

20.2%

22.4%

3) Neither good nor bad

29.6%

25.5%

36.4%

4) Bad

27.6%

29.5%

24.4%

5) Very Bad

13.2%

14.4%

11.4%

6) No Opinion/Don’t know

5.0%

7.3%

1.0%

15)

Are you satisfied or not satisfied with the performance of Mahmud Abbas since his election as president of the PA?

 

1) very satisfied

5.7%

4.1%

8.2%

2) satisfied

43.0%

48.9%

33.3%

3) not satisfied

36.9%

34.7%

40.5%

4) not satisfied at all

12.0%

8.6%

17.6%

5) DK/NA

2.4%

3.6%

.4%

16)

If new presidential elections are to take place today, and Mahmud Abbas was nominated by Fateh and Ismail Haniyeh was nominated by Hamas, whom would you vote for?

 

1) Mahmoud Abbas

52.1%

51.8%

52.6%

2) Ismael Haniyyah

40.6%

38.7%

43.5%

4) DK/NA

7.2%

9.6%

3.8%

17

And if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti representing Fateh and Ismail Haniyeh representing Hamas, whom would you vote for?

 

1) Marwan Barghouti

60.2%

60.7%

59.5%

2) Ismael Haniyyah

33.1%

30.0%

37.4%

4) DK/NA

6.7%

9.3%

3.0%

18)

And what if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti, Ismail Haniyeh, and Mahmud Abbas, to whom would you vote?

 

1) Marwan Barghouti

38.2%

36.9%

40.0%

2) Ismael Haniyyah

30.9%

28.5%

34.3%

3. Mahmud Abbas

26.4%

28.2%

23.8%

5) DK/NA

4.5%

6.4%

1.8%

20)

If new elections agreed to by all factions are held today and the same lists that took part in the last PLC elections were nominated, for whom would you vote?

 

1) alternative

1.3%

1.2%

1.4%

2) independent Palestine

3.1%

2.2%

4.4%

3) Abu Ali Mustafa

3.8%

4.8%

2.3%

4) Abu al Abbas

.1%

0.0%

.3%

5) freedom and social justice

.2%

.2%

.2%

6) change and reform

29.2%

26.6%

32.7%

7) national coalition for justice and democ

.1%

.2%

0.0%

8) third way(headed by salam fayyad)

.5%

.2%

.9%

9) freedom and independence

1.2%

1.6%

.6%

10) Palestinian justice

.2%

.4%

0.0%

11) Fateh

40.5%

39.8%

41.6%

12) none of the above/ DK/NA/ Do not remember

19.8%

22.9%

15.6%

21-1)

From among the following vital national goals, which in your view should the first most important one and which should be the second most important goal that the Palestinian people should strive to achieve?

 

1. Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 borders and the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital

45.8%

44.9%

47.2%

2. Obtain the right of return to refuges to their 1948 towns and villages

31.0%

31.1%

30.8%

3. Establish a democratic political system that respects freedoms and rights of Palestinians

9.6%

9.0%

10.5%

4. Build a pious or moral individual and a religious society, one that applies all Islamic teachings

13.7%

15.0%

11.6%

21-2)

From among the following vital national goals, which in your view should the first most important one and which should be the second most important goal that the Palestinian people should strive to achieve?

 

1. Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 borders and the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital

23.4%

25.9%

19.4%

2. Obtain the right of return to refuges to their 1948 towns and villages

39.9%

41.5%

37.3%

3. Establish a democratic political system that respects freedoms and rights of Palestinians

17.7%

14.0%

23.8%

4. Build a pious or moral individual and a religious society, one that applies all Islamic teachings

19.0%

18.6%

19.6%

22)

The Palestinian society confronts today various problems, like the continuation of occupation and settlements, the spread of unemployment and poverty, the lack of national unity due to the split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the continuatio

 

1) continuation of occupation and settlements,

22.1%

21.7%

22.9%

2) spread of unemployment and poverty

27.8%

35.1%

15.8%

3) lack of national unity due to the split

25.5%

22.4%

30.8%

4) continuation of the siege and blockade of the Gaza Strip and the closure of its border crossings

7.3%

.4%

18.6%

5) the spread of corruption in public institutions

14.9%

18.4%

9.0%

6) others (--------------  )

2.3%

1.9%

2.9%

7) DK/NA

.1%

.2%

0.0%

23)

Given the ups and downs, the progress and the setbacks in the Fateh-Hamas dialogue, what are your expectations for the future of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip?

 

1) unity will resume in the near future

17.6%

18.5%

16.1%

2) unity will resume but will take a long time

46.5%

44.8%

49.4%

3) unity will not resume and two separate entities will emerge

32.9%

32.5%

33.5%

4) DK/NA

3.0%

4.2%

1.0%

24)

It seems that Israel does not object to the opening of the Rafah terminal to the movement of passengers, but it says that the opening of the terminal for the movement of goods between the Gaza Strip and Egypt might lead to the closure of its crossings and the borders might be completely closed between Israel and the Gaza Strip. What do you prefer: to open the borders between the Gaza Strip and Israel for commerce on permanent basis or to open the borders between the Gaza Strip and Egypt on permanent basis even if this leads to the closure of borders between the Gaza Strip and Israel?

 

1) I certainly prefer the opening of the terminal with Egypt for goods on permanent basis

40.7%

40.4%

41.3%

2) I prefer the opening of the terminal with Egypt for goods on permanent basis

30.4%

29.3%

32.3%

3) I prefer the opening of the terminal with Israel for goods on permanent basis

16.2%

15.7%

17.0%

4) I certainly prefer the opening of the terminal with Israel for goods on permanent basis

9.0%

9.3%

8.3%

5) DK/NA

3.7%

5.3%

1.1%

25)

In order to end the Palestinian split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, some call for the downfall of the regime in the West Bank while others call for the downfall of the regime in the Gaza Strip. Tell us what you think: does the ending of the split require the downfall of the regime in the Gaza Strip, or the West Bank, or in both places or in neither?

 

1) does not require the downfall of regime in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip

33.9%

40.7%

22.7%

2) requires downfall of regime in the West Bank

12.1%

6.2%

21.8%

3) requires downfall of regime in the Gaza Strip

11.6%

10.7%

13.0%

4) requires downfall of regime in both places

36.7%

35.5%

38.7%

5) DK/NA

5.7%

6.9%

3.8%

26-1)

without an agreement on a date for presidential and legislative elections

 

1-Certainly yes

5.1%

4.2%

6.4%

2-YES

26.0%

28.9%

21.2%

3-NO

49.6%

50.9%

47.6%

4-Certainly no

16.5%

12.1%

23.7%

5-DK-NA

2.8%

3.9%

1.1%

26-2)

with the existing constraints on freedoms for members of Hamas in the West Bank

 

1-Certainly yes

3.7%

3.0%

4.7%

2-YES

20.0%

20.6%

19.1%

3-NO

58.5%

59.9%

56.1%

4-Certainly no

15.3%

13.5%

18.2%

5-DK-NA

2.6%

3.0%

1.9%

26-3)

with the existing constraints on freedoms for members of Fatah in the Gaza Strip

 

1-Certainly yes

4.1%

3.3%

5.6%

2-YES

20.4%

20.8%

19.8%

3-NO

57.5%

60.0%

53.4%

4-Certainly no

14.9%

12.3%

19.3%

5-DK-NA

2.9%

3.6%

1.9%

26-4

with the continuation of security coordination between the Israeli and Palestinian security services

 

1-Certainly yes

4.0%

3.7%

4.6%

2-YES

34.8%

36.9%

31.3%

3-NO

43.4%

45.8%

39.4%

4-Certainly no

14.7%

9.5%

23.4%

5-DK-NA

3.1%

4.1%

1.3%

26-5)

with Hamas insisting on preserving its armed wing, al Qassam Brigades, in the Gaza Strip

 

1-Certainly yes

7.7%

4.0%

13.7%

2-YES

39.3%

37.6%

41.9%

3-NO

40.9%

45.5%

33.3%

4-Certainly no

8.3%

7.4%

9.7%

5-DK-NA

3.9%

5.5%

1.3%

26-6

with the PA in the West Bank continuing to recognize Israel and the Oslo agreement

 

1-Certainly yes

3.9%

2.7%

5.8%

2-YES

34.1%

35.5%

31.8%

3-NO

46.1%

48.4%

42.4%

4-Certainly no

11.8%

7.3%

19.3%

5-DK-NA

4.1%

6.1%

.8%

26-7)

with Hamas refusing to accept agreements signed between the PLO and Israel

 

1-Certainly yes

6.0%

3.9%

9.3%

2-YES

28.2%

27.6%

29.2%

3-NO

49.8%

53.3%

44.1%

4-Certainly no

10.9%

8.0%

15.8%

5-DK-NA

5.1%

7.2%

1.6%

27)

Some say that the Gaza Strip is now a territory occupied by Israel just like the West Bank while others say that the Gaza Strip is no longer occupied and that it is in fact liberated. What do you think? Is the Strip occupied or liberated?

 

1-occupied

52.3%

59.2%

41.1%

2- liberated

16.3%

13.4%

21.1%

3- partly occupied and partly liberated

30.5%

26.5%

37.3%

4) DK/NA

.8%

1.0%

.6%

28)

In the context of the talk about the financial crisis in the West Bank, some wonder about the necessity of continuing to pay salaries for PA employees in the Gaza Strip, some of whom do not work because the PA has asked them to boycott the Hamas government. In your view, should the government of Salam Fayyad continue to pay salaries to PA employees in the Gaza Strip who used to work for the PA before the split?

 

1-Certainly yes

31.1%

24.1%

42.7%

2-YES

45.8%

46.9%

43.9%

3-NO

18.2%

23.5%

9.4%

4-Certainly no

3.2%

3.2%

3.2%

5-DK-NA

1.7%

2.3%

.8%

29)

If the Fayyad government stopped payment of salaries to PA employees in the Gaza Strip, those who used to work for the PA before the split, do you think the Hamas government alone would be able to provide all the financial needs of the Strip?

 

1-Certainly yes

8.3%

8.8%

7.5%

2-YES

35.5%

44.0%

21.5%

3-NO

36.4%

33.6%

40.9%

4-Certainly no

12.7%

4.8%

25.7%

5-DK-NA

7.1%

8.7%

4.5%

30)

Some Israelis have called upon their government to officially recognize the Hams government in the Gaza Strip given the fact that it represents a de facto independent entity. They further call for negotiations with the Hamas government to reach a long term truce. In your view, if Israel is to do that should the Hamas government agree to negotiate directly with Israel to reach such an agreement?

 

1-Certainly yes

4.8%

3.9%

6.2%

2-YES

37.0%

35.7%

39.2%

3-NO

44.0%

47.7%

38.0%

4-Certainly no

10.9%

7.9%

15.7%

5-DK-NA

3.3%

4.8%

.9%

31)

In your view, will Israel in the near future agree to recognize the Hamas government and to negotiate with it?

 

1-Certainly yes

4.9%

3.3%

7.6%

2-YES

35.8%

37.0%

33.8%

3-NO

44.4%

46.3%

41.2%

4-Certainly no

10.2%

9.0%

12.2%

5-DK-NA

4.7%

4.4%

5.2%

32)

If the PA in the West Bank dissolves itself or if it were to collapse because of its financial problems or because of a new intifada, is it appropriate in this case for Hamas to declare the Gaza Strip an independent entity constituting a nucleus for a future Palestinian state?

 

1-Certainly yes

3.6%

3.1%

4.3%

2-YES

21.6%

21.7%

21.5%

3-NO

53.7%

58.2%

46.4%

4-Certainly no

17.1%

11.6%

26.0%

5-DK-NA

4.1%

5.4%

1.9%

33)

If the split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip is to last much longer, would it become necessary in that case to hold new legislative and presidential elections even if separately in each area and even under conditions of split?

 

1-Certainly yes

8.7%

7.6%

10.4%

2-YES

36.5%

36.1%

37.1%

3-NO

43.7%

46.1%

39.9%

4-Certainly no

8.9%

7.6%

11.1%

5-DK-NA

2.2%

2.6%

1.5%

34)

Most countries in the world have recognized the state of Palestine under President Abbas and Prime Minister Fayyad. In your view, should these countries recognize also the government of Hamas in the Gaza Strip?

 

1-Certainly yes

15.8%

13.1%

20.2%

2-YES

34.6%

31.6%

39.4%

3-NO

34.0%

40.2%

23.9%

4-Certainly no

10.5%

10.6%

10.5%

5-DK-NA

5.1%

4.5%

6.1%

35)

What do you expect to happen between Palestinians and Israelis after the formation of the new Israeli government and after the Obama visit to Israel and Palestine?

 

1) the two sides will return soon to negotiations

32.6%

33.4%

31.3%

2) the two sides will return to negotiations but some armed attacks will take place

29.2%

26.5%

33.6%

3) the two sides will not return to negotiations and some armed attacks will take place

19.0%

17.7%

21.1%

4) the two sides will not return to negotiations and there will be no armed attacks

15.2%

17.8%

11.0%

5) DK/NA

4.0%

4.6%

3.0%

36)

  Do you support or oppose the solution based on the establishment of a Palestinian State alongside Israel known as the two States solution?

 

1) certainly support

7.1%

5.5%

9.9%

2) support

47.4%

51.5%

40.7%

3) oppose

34.1%

34.8%

33.1%

4) certainly oppose

10.0%

7.1%

14.7%

5) DK/NA

1.3%

1.2%

1.5%

37)

Some believe that the two-state solution, an independent Palestinian state alongside the state of Israel, is no longer viable due to settlement expansion while others believe that it is still viable today as settlements can be dismantled or evacuated when an agreement is reached. What do you think?

 

1. certainly the two-state solution is no longer viable

20.5%

20.2%

20.9%

2. the two state solution is no longer viable

35.5%

35.4%

35.6%

3. the two-state solution remains viable today

31.5%

33.7%

27.9%

4. Certainly, the two-state solution remains viable today

9.6%

8.5%

11.2%

5. DK/NA

3.0%

2.1%

4.4%

38)

Talk has recently increased about the inevitable failure of the two state solution and the need to demand the formulation of a solution based on the establishment of one state in all Palestinian areas and Israel, one in which Arabs and Jews enjoy equality. Do you support or oppose this view?

 

1) certainly support

1.9%

1.2%

3.0%

2) support

27.4%

32.2%

19.6%

3) oppose

49.9%

49.0%

51.4%

4) certainly oppose

20.0%

16.5%

25.8%

5) DK/NA

.7%

1.0%

.2%

39)

Now more than 45 years after the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, what in your view are the chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state next to the state of Israel in the next five years? Are they high, medium, low, or none existent?

 

1) None existent

26.7%

27.1%

26.1%

2) Low

41.4%

42.4%

39.8%

3) Medium

28.0%

26.6%

30.3%

4) High

3.3%

3.2%

3.4%

5) DK/NA

.6%

.7%

.4%

40)

To what extent are you worried or not worried that you or a member of your family could be hurt by Israel in your daily life or that your land would be confiscated or home demolished?

 

1. Very Worried

23.2%

25.5%

19.4%

2-Worried

48.2%

45.5%

52.7%

3. Not worried

24.8%

25.7%

23.5%

4. Not worried at all

3.6%

3.1%

4.4%

5.DK/NA

.1%

.2%

0.0%

41)

What do you think are the aspirations of Israel for the long run?

 

1 Withdrawal from the territories it occupied in 1967 after guaranteeing its security

6.5%

5.5%

8.3%

2. Withdrawal form part of the occupied territories after guaranteeing its security

11.9%

12.1%

11.5%

3. Annexation of the West Bank while denying political rights of Palestinian citizens

21.4%

19.3%

24.8%

4. Extending the borders of the state of Israel to cover all the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea and expelling its Arab citizens 

59.0%

61.5%

54.8%

5. DK/NA

1.2%

1.6%

.7%

42)

And what do you think are the aspirations of the Palestinian Authority and the PLO for the long run?

 

1)  Regain some of the territories conquered in  the 1967 war

36.9%

37.9%

35.4%

2)  Regain all the territories  conquered in the 1967 war

27.1%

22.7%

34.5%

3)  Conquer the State of Israel and regain control over the pre 1948 Palestine

15.4%

13.2%

19.0%

4)  Conquer the State of Israel and destroy much of the Jewish population in Israel

10.5%

12.1%

7.9%

5)  DK/NA

10.0%

14.0%

3.3%

43)

According to the Saudi plan, Israel will retreat from all territories occupied in 1967 including Gaza the West Bank, Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, and a Palestinian state will be established. The refugees problem will be resolved through negotiation in a just and agreed upon manner and in accordance with UN resolution 194 which allows return of refugees to Israel and compensation. In return, all Arab states will recognize Israel and its right to secure borders, will sign peace treaties with her and establish normal diplomatic relations.  Do you agree or disagree to this plan?

 

1) certainly agree

6.1%

3.5%

10.3%

2) agree

48.9%

49.9%

47.4%

3) disagree

33.5%

35.0%

30.9%

4) 4) certainly Disagree

9.5%

8.8%

10.5%

5) DK/NA

2.0%

2.7%

.9%

44)

There is a proposal that after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the settlement of all issues in dispute, including the refugees and Jerusalem issues, there will be a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinians people. Do you agree or disagree to this proposal?

 

1) certainly agree

4.0%

3.7%

4.5%

2) agree

38.4%

38.6%

38.2%

3) disagree

40.1%

42.8%

35.7%

4) 4) certainly Disagree

16.0%

12.9%

21.0%

5) DK/NA

1.4%

1.9%

.7%

45(

Now that negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis have stopped, and the UN has recognized Palestine as a non-member state without Israeli approval, would you support or oppose the following option in the search for achieving Palestinian rights?

3)

Abandon the two state solution and demand the establishment of one state for Palestinians and Israelis

 

1) certainly support

5.0%

3.2%

7.9%

2) support

24.1%

27.7%

18.1%

3) oppose

51.4%

56.1%

43.5%

4) certainly oppose

18.2%

11.1%

29.9%

5) DK/NA

1.4%

1.8%

.6%

4)

 Resort to popular non violent and unarmed resistance

 

1) certainly support

9.5%

6.0%

15.3%

2) support

53.9%

55.3%

51.6%

3) oppose

32.0%

34.4%

27.9%

4) certainly oppose

3.5%

2.9%

4.6%

5) DK/NA

1.1%

1.3%

.7%

5)

Return to the armed intifada and confrontations

 

1) certainly support

9.0%

5.1%

15.5%

2) support

31.4%

30.2%

33.4%

3) oppose

50.9%

55.8%

42.8%

4) certainly oppose

7.6%

7.4%

8.0%

5) DK/NA

1.1%

1.6%

.4%

6)

Dissolve the Palestinian Authority

 

1) certainly support

10.0%

7.6%

13.9%

2) support

30.1%

28.4%

32.9%

3) oppose

45.9%

50.9%

37.6%

4) certainly oppose

11.4%

10.7%

12.5%

5) DK/NA

2.6%

2.3%

3.1%

46)

During the past few months a group of Palestinian youth have tried to create facts on the ground and attract media attention as the means for popular resistance against settlements by placing tents and staying in various places in area C opposite settlements, such as Bab al Shams and Bab al Karama. In your view, are these efforts effective or not effective in protecting the land against settlement expansion?

 

1)  certainly effective

16.7%

12.7%

23.3%

2) effective

53.8%

55.6%

51.0%

3) not effective

23.0%

25.5%

18.8%

4) certainly not effective

3.2%

3.0%

3.6%

5) DK/NA

3.2%

3.2%

3.3%

47)

President Obama visited Ramallah last week and met with president Abbas. Do you think the US administration will be able to revive the Palestinian-Israeli peace process and succeed in bringing the two sides to the negotiating table?

 

1-Certainly yes

4.5%

3.7%

5.9%

2-YES

37.7%

34.7%

42.7%

3-NO

45.1%

50.9%

35.5%

4-Certainly no

9.4%

7.7%

12.3%

5-DK-NA

3.3%

3.1%

3.7%

48)

What do you want the president Obama to do? Do you want him to play a stronger role in the Palestinian-Israeli peace process or do you want him no to interfere in the peace process?

 

1- I want a stronger US role in the peace process

44.8%

46.0%

42.9%

2-I want the US to play the same role it is currently playing

6.8%

4.1%

11.2%

3-I want the US not to interfere in the peace process

46.2%

47.6%

44.0%

4-DK-NA

2.2%

2.3%

1.9%

49)

Now after the visit of president Obama to Ramallah and Bethlehem,  have your feelings for him changed or did not change?

 

1-did not change, remained as they were

61.4%

65.4%

54.9%

2-changed for the better

8.2%

5.1%

13.1%

3-changed for the worse

29.2%

28.7%

30.2%

4-DK-NA

1.2%

.8%

1.8%

50)

Do you believe the US will succeed in in pressuring Israel to freeze settlement construction?

 

1-Certainly yes

3.7%

2.8%

5.3%

2-YES

24.0%

20.6%

29.6%

3-NO

53.6%

60.0%

43.0%

4-Certainly no

16.6%

15.4%

18.8%

5-DK-NA

2.0%

1.2%

3.3%

51)

During the visit of the US president to the Palestinian territories, the US Administration announced plans to release $500 million to the PA. In your view, does this mean that the PA financial crisis has now been resolved?

 

1-Certainly yes

5.6%

3.2%

9.6%

2-YES

20.8%

15.8%

29.0%

3-NO

48.1%

54.5%

37.6%

4-Certainly no

23.0%

24.0%

21.3%

5-DK-NA

2.5%

2.5%

2.5%

52)

In your view, can the PA fight Israel in international organizations, such as the International Criminal Court, now that it is forced to rely financially on the US?

 

1) Certainly it can

4.1%

2.1%

7.5%

2) Yes, it can

30.2%

29.2%

31.9%

3) No, it cannot

51.1%

54.4%

45.7%

4) Certainly it cannot

11.2%

11.3%

11.0%

5-DK-NA

3.3%

3.0%

3.9%

53)

Concerning armed attacks against Israeli civilians inside Israel, I….

 

1) certainly support

8.1%

4.9%

13.3%

2) support

31.9%

27.0%

40.1%

3) oppose

49.6%

56.5%

38.1%

4) certainly oppose

7.6%

8.4%

6.3%

5) DK/NA

2.8%

3.2%

2.3%

54)

Which of the following political parties do you support?

 

1- PPP

.4%

.3%

.4%

2- PFLP

5.0%

4.0%

6.8%

3- Fateh

30.8%

28.7%

34.4%

4- Hamas

18.6%

14.8%

24.8%

5- DFLP

.6%

.5%

.8%

6- Islamic Jihad

1.9%

1.1%

3.2%

7- Fida

.2%

.2%

.1%

8- National inititiative (almubadara)

.8%

1.0%

.3%

9- Independent Islamist

1.8%

1.9%

1.7%

10- Independent nationalist

4.0%

2.9%

5.8%

11)third way headed by salam feyyad

.3%

.2%

.4%

12- none of the above

35.2%

43.7%

21.2%

13- others

.4%

.7%

0.0%

55)

If you use the internet to surf social sites like Facebook,  Twitter, and various groups or to access email, how many times do you normally do that?

 

1) More than once a day

13.7%

11.9%

16.5%

2) daily

21.2%

19.3%

24.2%

3) between 2-5 times weekly

12.7%

9.9%

17.2%

4) once a week

6.9%

6.3%

7.8%

5) once a month

4.1%

3.7%

4.8%

6) others (specify -----)

.4%

.5%

.2%

7) Does not apply—I have no email and do not visit social sites

41.1%

48.4%

29.2%

 

____________________________

This PSR survey was conducted with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ramallah

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