One Week Before Palestinian Presidential Elections:
65% for Mahmud Abbas and 22% for Mustafa Barghouti
31 Dec.04 - 2 January 2005
These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip on Thursday and Friday 30 and 31 December 2004. Total size of the sample is 1319 adults interviewed face to face in 120 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3% and rejection rate 2%.
For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki or Ayoub Mustafa, at Tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.
- · Among those planning to participate in the presidential elections, 65% say they will vote for Mahmud Abbas, 22% for Mustafa Barghouti, 5% for all other candidates combined, and 8% remain undecided.
- · Popularity of Mahmud Abbas increases in the Gaza Strip (70%) compared to the West Bank (62%), among men (68%) compared to women (62%), among supporters of Fateh (84%) compared to supporters of Hamas and the PFLP (51% and 24% respectively), among the illiterates (75%) compared to those with BA degree (64%), among employees, craftsmen, laborers and the unemployed (76%, 73%, 69% and 69% respectively) compared to students (53%), among those working in the public sector (75%) compared to those working in the private sector (66%), and among the married (67%) compared to the unmarried (59%). Popularity of Mustafa Barghouti increases in the West Bank (24%) compared to the Gaza Strip (19%), in cities (26%) compared to villages and refugee camps (20% and 19% respectively), among women (25%) compared to men (19%), and among supporters of the PFLP (65%) compared to supporters of Fateh and Hamas (10% and 32% respectively).
- · A majority of 71% believe that Mahmud Abbas is the most able among all candidates to reach a peace agreement with Israel; 61% believe he is the most able to improve economic conditions; 60% believe he is the most able to enforce law and order; 50% believe he is the most able to protect national unity; 42% believe he is the most able to protect the right of return; and 26% believe he is the most able to keep the armed intifada going.
- · If Marwan Barghouti nominated himself, 38% of the public say they would have voted for him (34% of Abbas’ voters and 54% of Mustafa Barghouti’s voters say they would have voted for Marwan Barghouti). If Marwan Barghouti was a candidate, the voting results, based on current intentions, would therefore have been as follows: 43% for Marwan Barghouti, 39% for Mahmud Abbas, 9% for Mustafa Barghouti, 3% for all other candidates combined, and 7% are undecided.
- · If the choice in these elections were between Mahmud Zahhar (of Hamas), Marwan Barghouti, and Mahmud Abbas, public opinion would be divided as follows: 37% for Abbas, 29% for Marwan Barghouti, and 19% for Zahhar.
- · 49% support and 49% oppose the views of Mahmud Abbas calling for an end to the militarization of the intifada and cessation of the use of arms.
- · Support for Fateh reaches 41%, Hamas 20%, and nonaffiliated 28%. The combined total for all Islamists (Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and independent Islamists) reaches 26%. Support for Hamas increases in the Gaza Strip to 28% and decreases in the West Bank to 15%.
Results in Numbers
| Total% | West Bank % | Gaza Strip% |
01) The following is a list of all the candidates who nominated themselves or declared their intentions to nominate themselves in the upcoming presidential elections scheduled for January 9. Tell us if you have known them or heard about them before I read their names to you now. | |||
01-1) Bassam Salhi | |||
1) Yes | 45.7 | 50.5 | 37.8 |
2) No | 54.3 | 49.5 | 62.2 |
01-2) Taysir Khalid | |||
1) Yes | 51.3 | 57.0 | 41.8 |
2) No | 48.7 | 43.0 | 58.2 |
01-3) Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazin) | |||
1) Yes | 99.1 | 99.4 | 98.6 |
2) No | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.4 |
01-4) Abdul Karim Shbair | |||
1) Yes | 26.2 | 21.1 | 34.5 |
2) No | 73.8 | 78.9 | 65.5 |
01-5) Mustafa Barghouti |
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1) Yes | 95.8 | 96.7 | 94.1 |
2) No | 4.2 | 3.3 | 5.9 |
01-6) Sayyid Baraka | |||
1) Yes | 22.5 | 19.8 | 27.1 |
2) No | 77.5 | 80.2 | 72.9 |
01-7) Abdul Halim al Ashkar | |||
1) Yes | 36.1 | 37.9 | 33.1 |
2) No | 63.9 | 62.1 | 66.9 |
02) Who among those candidates are most able to carry out the following tasks: | |||
02-1 1 reach a peace agreement with Israel | |||
1) Bassam Salhi | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
2) Taysir Khalid | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
3) Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazin) | 71.3 | 69.3 | 73.9 |
4) Abdul Karim Shbair | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.6 |
5) Mustafa Barghouti | 8.9 | 10.2 | 6.7 |
6) Sayyid Baraka | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
7) Abdul Halim al Ashkar | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
8) No Opinion/ Don’t know | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.1 |
9) None of them | 11.2 | 11.3 | 11.1 |
02-2) Protect the right of retrun | |||
1) Bassam Salhi | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
2) Taysir Khalid | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
3) Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazin) | 41.8 | 40.7 | 43.8 |
4) Abdul Karim Shbair | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.6 |
5) Mustafa Barghouti | 20.0 | 21.0 | 18.4 |
6) Sayyid Baraka | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
7) Abdul Halim al Ashkar | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
8) No Opinion/ Don’t know | 11.4 | 11.5 | 11.3 |
9) None of them | 22.7 | 22.3 | 23.2 |
02-3) protect national unity and prevent internal infighting | |||
1) Bassam Salhi | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
2) Taysir Khalid | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
3) Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazin) | 50.3 | 48.3 | 53.7 |
4) Abdul Karim Shbair | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
5) Mustafa Barghouti | 17.7 | 18.9 | 15.6 |
6) Sayyid Baraka | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 |
7) Abdul Halim al Ashkar | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
8) No Opinion/ Don’t know | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 |
9) None of them | 15.1 | 15.8 | 13.9 |
02-4 improve Palestinian economic conditions | |||
1) Bassam Salhi | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
2) Taysir Khalid | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
3) Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazin) | 61.0 | 57.5 | 66.9 |
4) Abdul Karim Shbair | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
5) Mustafa Barghouti | 12.4 | 14.6 | 8.9 |
6) Sayyid Baraka | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 |
7) Abdul Halim al Ashkar | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
8) No Opinion/ Don’t know | 10.3 | 10.8 | 9.5 |
9) None of them | 13.3 | 14.1 | 12.1 |
02-5) enforce law and order in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip | |||
1) Bassam Salhi | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
2) Taysir Khalid | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
3) Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazin) | 60.4 | 60.6 | 60.2 |
4) Abdul Karim Shbair | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
5) Mustafa Barghouti | 10.5 | 11.5 | 8.7 |
6) Sayyid Baraka | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
7) Abdul Halim al Ashkar | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
8) No Opinion/ Don’t know | 11.5 | 11.7 | 11.3 |
9) None of them | 14.9 | 13.3 | 17.4 |
02-6) Insure the continuation of the armed intifada | |||
1) Bassam Salhi | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
2) Taysir Khalid | 2.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 |
3) Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazin) | 26.4 | 24.9 | 28.9 |
4) Abdul Karim Shbair | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.8 |
5) Mustafa Barghouti | 19.6 | 20.1 | 18.6 |
6) Sayyid Baraka | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.4 |
7) Abdul Halim al Ashkar | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
8) No Opinion/ Don’t know | 17.9 | 18.3 | 17.2 |
9) None of them | 30.3 | 30.5 | 30.2 |
03) If you participate in the presidential elections, whom would you elect from among those listed? | |||
1) Bassam Salhi | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
2) Taysir Khalid | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
3) Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazin) | 65.1 | 61.8 | 70.4 |
4) Abdul Karim Shbair | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
5) Mustafa Barghouti | 22.0 | 23.8 | 19.1 |
6) Sayyid Baraka | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.4 |
7) Abdul Halim al Ashkar | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
8) No Opinion /Don’t Know | 7.7 | 8.8 | 6.0 |
04) From his jail, Marwan Barghouti has decided not to nominate himself as a presidential candidate. If he did nominate himself, would you have voted for him or would you have voted for the candidate you have indicated in the previous question or would you have not voted for him or any other candidate? | |||
1) I would have voted for MarwanBarghouti | 38.3 | 34.1 | 45.5 |
2) I would have voted for the candidate I have indicated in the previous question | 45.0 | 47.6 | 40.6 |
3) I would not vote for Marwan Barghouti or any other candidate | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.4 |
4) I will not participate in the elections | 10.3 | 11.1 | 8.9 |
5) No Opinion /Don’t Know | 3.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 |
05) If it was up to you, who among the following three individuals would you prefer to become the president of the Palestinian Authority? | |||
1) Mahmud Zahhar | 18.5 | 16.4 | 21.8 |
2) Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazin) | 37.4 | 39.1 | 34.5 |
3) Marwan Barghouti | 29.1 | 27.9 | 31.1 |
4) None of the above | 12.2 | 12.8 | 11.3 |
5) No Opinion /Don’t Know | 2.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 |
06) Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazin) has announced that the use of arms in the current intifada is harmful and stressed the need to stop the militarization of the intifada and the cessation of the use of arms. Do you support or oppose this position taken by him? | |||
1) Strongly support | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 |
2) Support | 37.9 | 41.8 | 31.3 |
3) Oppose | 38.5 | 35.4 | 43.6 |
4) Strongly oppose | 10.0 | 8.9 | 11.9 |
5) No opinion/ do not know | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.0 |
07) Which of the following political parties do you support? | |||
1) PPP | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
2) PFLP | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.4 |
3) Fateh | 40.9 | 42.1 | 39.0 |
4) Hamas | 19.9 | 15.1 | 27.9 |
5) DFLP | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
6) Islamic Jihad | 2.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
7) Independent Islamists | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.2 |
8) Independent Nationalists | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.0 |
9) None of the above | 20.5 | 21.0 | 19.6 |
10) Other, specify | 1.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |