German Poll 2016- Press Release

These are the results of the second round of the German poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 10 and 14 February 2016. The poll covers several issues including impressions regarding Germany, its place and role in international politics and the Palestinian-Israeli peace process, and its relationship with Palestine and Israel, all in comparison with the place and role of the US and the EU. It also covers aspects of the German policy towards the recent waves of refugees from the Middle East as well as the on-going US presidential election campaign. The first round of PSR’s German poll was conducted in December 2014. These polls explore German’s place in the world and its role in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

The implementation of the poll started with the conduct of two focus groups, both held at PSR in Ramallah, on 31 January 2016. Ten men participated in the first group and ten women participated in the second. Participants came from various age groups, between 20 and 50 years old, and from different educational levels. They included teachers, housewives, professionals, a taxi driver, public and private sector employees, and employees in the NGO sector. The purpose of the focus groups has been to ascertain the nature of questions Palestinian have on Germany, its foreign policy, its refugee policy, and its position on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and to hear thoughts on the US election campaign. Some of questions used in this poll evolved out of the discussion in these focus groups. Furthermore, the conversations proved valuable in providing explanation and answers to questions that emerged later after poll data were collected.

The sample selected for this poll is representative of the population in the Palestinian territories with a total size of 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%. The sample is divided equally between males and females and comprises five age groups divided as follows: 18-22 (13%), 23-29 (19%), 30-39 (26%), 40-49 (20%), and 50 years and above (21%). Reflecting the actual distribution in Palestinian society, 62% of the respondents came from the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and 38% came from the Gaza Strip; 71% came from cities, 17% from villages and towns, and 12% from refugee camps. Most respondents (58%) did not work while 30% worked in the private sector and 12% in public sector. Three educational levels are represented in the sample: illiterate and those with elementary education (13%), those with preparatory and secondary education (51%), and those with college and university education (37%).  More than half of the sample (52%) use the internet and social media, such as Facebook and Twitter, on daily basis, 17% use them at least once a week, and the rest (31%) do not use the internet or use it only occasionally.

Conclusions and summary of main findings:

Between December 2014 and February 2016:

Findings show significant increase in favorable impression of Germany and its place and role in international politics and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The German treatment of the recent wave of refugees from the Middle East, as indicated below, is probably responsible for the positive change.  

An overwhelming majority of Palestinians has a highly favorable impression of Germany; only one quarter has an unfavorable impression. However, findings show that despite the highly favorable impression of the country and many of its policies, the public looks less favorably upon Chancellor Merkel, as only slightly more than one third has favorable impression of her. Focus group discussion found many Palestinians viewing the Chancellor as pro-Israel. Moreover, the public is critical of some aspects of German-Israeli relations and half tends to view Germany as biased in favor of Israel. Nonetheless, compared to the first round, fourteen months ago, Palestinian impression of Germany and its place and role in international politics and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has improved significantly. The German treatment of the recent wave of refugees from the Middle East, as indicated below, is probably responsible for the positive change.  

Findings show a considerable increase in the favorable impression of Germany from about half to more than two thirds. In other questions asked in the two rounds, findings show additional significant increase in six areas: (1) in the percentage of those who would like to see Germany play a more active role in international affairs, (2) in the belief that the German government is committed to working towards a lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians, (3) in the belief that Germany is an “honest broker” between Palestinians and Israelis, (4) in the percentage of those who think Germany has the best relations with Palestine, (5) in the percentage of those who selected Germany to be the country with which they wanted Palestine to have the best relations, and (6) in the belief that the German government supports the Palestinians’ right to statehood.  But findings show a slight decrease in the favorable impression of Chancellor Angela Merkel. Three areas did not witness change: (1) the belief that Germany supports Israel’s right to exist, (2) the belief that due to the Holocaust, Israel and Germany will always have a special relationship, and (3) the belief that Germany will always support Israel due to the Holocaust.

Germany and Palestine:

A plurality of the public describes Germany-Palestine relationship as strong; in fact, almost two-thirds agree that due to the Holocaust, Germany and Palestine should have a special relationship. 

Palestinian favorable impression of Germany and the German people stands on several legs. A majority views Germany as a modern and civilized country. Furthermore, findings indicate strong public favorable impression of German financial and technical support to the PA and the PA police. A plurality of the public describes Germany-Palestine relationship as strong; in fact, almost two-thirds agree that due to the Holocaust, Germany and Palestine should have a special relationship.  The public also looks favorably at statements attributed to Merkel that Israeli settlements are counterproductive to the goal of the two-state solution.  Moreover, two thirds believe that Germany supports Palestinians’ right to a state and a majority believes that Germany can be trusted and relied upon by the PA.

German-Israeli relations:

Most Palestinians believe that Germany supports Israel’s right to exist and more than two-thirds describe Germany-Israel relations as strong.

A majority agrees that Germany supports Israel’s right to exist. Moreover, an overwhelming majority thinks Germany-Israel relationship is based on common interests. By contrast, a much smaller percentage describes German-Palestinian relations as strong; similarly, a much smaller percentage believes German-Palestinian relations are based on common interest. 

Germany and Israel:

About half of the Palestinians believes that Germany is biased in favor of Israel. A similar percentage is critical of German assistance to Israel, seen as strengthening Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories.

The public is critical of some aspects of German policy towards Israel. About half of the Palestinians believes that Germany is biased in favor of Israel. A similar percentage is critical of German assistance to Israel, seen as strengthening Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories. Indeed, an overwhelming majority looks unfavorably upon the transfer of German arms, including submarines, to Israel. About half of the public thinks that due to the Holocaust, the two countries will always have a special relationship.

The poll sought to assess public perception of the American people and the role of the US government compared to that of the German people and the role of the German government in thirteen different issues. On ten issues, Germany came on top with a more positive or favorable Palestinian assessment; on two issues, the US came on top; and on one, the two countries received the same assessment.

Germany and the US:

Palestinians have a much higher favorable impression of German foreign policy than that of the US government. A much larger percentage of Palestinians believes that the German government is committed to working toward a lasting Israeli-Palestine peace than they attribute to the US government. But the US is seen as more supportive of Israel than Germany.

Findings show that Palestinians have a favorable impression of the German people twice as much as they have of the American people; and while about two thirds believe that the German people support the peace process between Palestinians and Israelis, only half believes that the same about the American people. Palestinians have a much higher favorable impression of German foreign policy than that of the US government. A much larger percentage of Palestinians believes that the German government is committed to working toward a lasting Israeli-Palestine peace than they attribute to the US government. Similarly, a much larger percentage believes that Germany is an “honest broker” than they attribute to the US. A larger percentage believes that the German government supports the Palestinian right to a state than they attribute to the US government. Indeed when asked whom they would pick from among four players (US, UN, EU, and Germany) to play a more active role as a mediator between Israelis and Palestinians, Germany received a much greater endorsement than the US. A much larger percentage describes Palestine-Germany relations as strong compared to what they attribute to Palestine-US relations. Furthermore, while a majority believes that Germany can be trusted and relied upon by the PA, only a quarter or so believes the same about the US government. Finally, while a quarter believes that the Palestine-Germany relationship is best described as unstable, much more than one third believes the same about Palestine-US relationship.

On two issues, the public had a different assessment of US positions. A higher percentage believes the US supports Israel’s right to exist than they attribute to the German government. Also, a much higher percentage describes US-Israel relations as strong compared to what they attribute to the Germany-Israel relations. Finally, on one issue, on what shapes relations between Palestine and Germany vs. Palestine and the US, findings show no difference between the two countries as the largest percentage views governments as the main driver of the two relationships. 

Germany and the EU:

On most issues, Germany receives a more positive and favorable assessment than the EU; but when asked whom they would like to see as a mediator between Israelis and Palestinians, the EU came on top followed by Germany. 

The poll also sought to compare public perception of Germany with that of the EU on a variety of issues. On most issues, Germany received a more positive or favorable assessment.  Palestinians have a more favorable impression of Germany than they have of the EU as a whole or of most other EU countries. Indeed, from among the EU countries, Germany came on top as the one that Palestine should have the best relations with, followed by France. Almost identical majorities think that Germany and the EU can be equally trusted and relied upon by the PA. Compared to the EU, a slightly larger percentage agrees that Germany is “honest broker.” While a plurality thinks that the German position is similar to positions taken by other EU countries in terms of fairness on Palestinian-Israeli issues, more than a third believes that the German position is better than positions taken by other EU countries and only a small minority believes it is worse than positions of other EU countries. But when asked whom they would like to see, from among a list of four, play a more active role as a mediator between Israelis and Palestinians, the EU came on top followed by Germany.  Finally, German policy toward refugees is viewed more favorably than that of EU.

Germany and the recent wave of refugees:

An overwhelming majority indicates that its impression of Germany has become more favorable as a result of its refugees’ open-door policy; a majority also believes that refugees entering Germany will have a positive effect on the country.

We asked respondents about the German policy regarding refugees from the Middle East. An overwhelming majority supports the German decision to accept Syrian refugees and a similar percentage says that its impression of Germany has become more favorable as a result of that decision. Two thirds believe that due to its involvement in the Middle East, Germany has a moral obligation to accept refugees from that region. In this regard, a large majority believes that German policy (and that of the EU) toward refugees is more humanitarian than that of most Arab countries. A majority believes that refugees entering Germany will have a positive effect on the country. Similarly, a majority believes that the refugees will have a positive impact on German-Palestinian relations. By contrast, less than a quarter believes that refugees will have a similarly positive impact on German-Israeli relations and a plurality believes it will have a negative effect.

US Presidential elections:

Most Palestinians indicate lack of familiarity with most candidate. A majority believes that when it comes to the peace process and to relations between the US and Palestine, it does not matter if the president is republican or democrat.

We also asked respondents about the American presidential elections. Most Palestinians indicated lack of familiarity with most candidate. Hilary Clinton is the best know followed by Jeb Bush. Clinton is viewed favorably by about a fifth of the public. All others receive a much smaller positive rating. ISIS is seen as the issue on top of the agenda for US foreign policy, followed by Israel-Palestine and Iranian nuclear issue. But most Palestinians would like to see the newly elected US president focus first on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. A majority believes that when it comes to the peace process and to relations between the US and Palestine, it does not matter if the president is republican or democrat. But about a quarter or so believes a democrat would better for both issues and a smaller percentage believes a republican would be better.  An overwhelming majority rejects the statement made by candidate Donald Trump on banning Muslims from entering the US. By contrast, a majority agree with Clinton’s statement that efforts should continue to achieve Israeli-Palestinian peace and that the best outcome for both sides is a two-state solution. Finally, the overwhelming majority believes that the Arab-American community in the US has little influence on US foreign policy. By contrast however, more than three quarters believe that the Jewish American community does have a significant influence.

Gazans and West Bankers:

West Bankers have a more favorable impression of Germany than Gazans. But more Gazans than West Bankers believe that Germany is an “honest broker.”

West Bankers have a more favorable impression of Germany than Gazans. They, more than Gazans, also tend to believe than the German position on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is better than that of other European countries. But surprisingly, more Gazans than West Bankers believe that Germany is an “honest broker.” Males tend to have a more favorable view of Germany than females. Similarly, males have a more favorable impression of Merkel than females. Males also tend to have a more favorable view of German foreign policy and are more likely to agree that the German government works for a lasting peace between Palestinians and Israelis and that it is an “honest broker.” Yet, surprisingly, males are more likely than females to think that German policy is biased in favor of Israel. Generally speaking, those with daily access to the internet and the social media tend to have a more favorable view of Germany and Merkel. They also tend to have a more positive view of German foreign policy and German position on Palestinian statehood. The more educated tends to have a more favorable view of Germany and Merkel. But they are less likely than those with lower levels of education to view Germany as an “honest broker” Indeed, the more educated are more likely to view German policy as biased in favor of Israel. Age does not seem to play an important role in shaping attitudes regarding Germany even though the youth are more likely to pick Germany over the US and the EU to play a more active role as a mediator between Israelis and Palestinians. Moreover, the youth are less likely than the old to believe that due to the Holocaust, Germany will always supports Israel.

Detailed description of the findings:

(1) Impressions and perception of Germany and the German people

• 69% have a favorable impression of Germany and 26% have unfavorable impression. By comparison, 53% say they have a favorable impression of the European Union and 41% say they have unfavorable impression. In December 2014, 49% had a favorable impression of Germany and 33% had unfavorable impression and 53% had a favorable impression of the EU and 35% had unfavorable impression. 
• 70% have a favorable impression of the German people and 19% have unfavorable impression. By comparison, only 35% say they have a favorable impression of the American people and 62% say they have unfavorable impression. Only 11% say they have a favorable impression of the Israeli people and 88% say they have unfavorable impression.
• On the hand, only 35% have a favorable impression of the Chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel, and 36% have unfavorable impression; 30% did not express any views or refused to answer. In December 2014, 37% said they had a favorable impression of Merkel, 32% said they had unfavorable impression and 32% expressed no views or refused to answer.
• When asked to select the statement with which they agreed most from among two statements, 51% selected “Germany is a modern/civilized state” and 16% selected “There is plenty of racism in Germany.” 26% agreed with both statements and 3% disagreed with both.
• And when asked to select the statement with which they agreed most from among two statements, 29% said that “German products were the best in the world” while 19% selected “German products are the most expensive.” 36% said they agreed with both statements and 8% disagreed with both.
• Close to 70% know the name of at least one German city, with Berlin mentioned by 38%, followed by Munich (mentioned by 12%), and Frankfurt and Hamburg (mentioned by 6% each).

 (2) Germany’s place and role in international politics and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict

• 45% have a favorable impression of Germany’s foreign policy and 42% have unfavorable impression. By comparison, only 12% have a favorable impression of American foreign policy and 84% have unfavorable impression. 
• Nonetheless, 60% would like to see Germany playing a more active role in international affairs and 20% would like to see Germany playing a less active role. In December 2014, only 52% said they would like to see Germany playing a more active role in international affairs and 17% said they would like to see it playing a less active role.
• 59% agree and 34% disagree that the German government is committed to working towards a lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians. By comparison, only 33% agree and 64% disagree that the US government is committed to working towards a lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians; 20% agree and 78% disagree that the Israeli government is committed to working towards a lasting peace; and 69% agree and 29% disagree that the Palestinian Authority is committed to working towards a lasting peace. In December 2014, 46% believed that the German government was committed to working towards a lasting peace between Israeli and Palestinians and 37% did not believe that.
• 68% agree and 24% disagree that most Germans support peace between Palestinians and Israelis. By comparison, only 47% agree and 48% disagree that most Americans support peace between Palestinians and Israelis; 30% agree and 66% disagree that most Israelis support peace; and 56% agree and 41% disagree that most Palestinians support peace.
• 49% agree and 41% disagree that Germany is an “honest broker” between Israelis and Palestinians. By comparison, only 21% agree and 75% disagree that the US is an “honest broker;” and 46% agree and 47% disagree that the EU is an “honest broker.” In December 2014, only 28% agreed and 68% disagreed that Germany is an “honest broker” between Israelis and Palestinians.
• When asked who would they like to see play a more active role as a mediator between Israelis and Palestinians, 31% selected the EU, 26% selected Germany, 24% selected the UN, and only 8% selected the US.
• When asked to select the statement with which they agreed most from among two statements, 34% selected “German guilt feeling toward the Jews influences Germany’s policy toward Israel” while 18% selected “German guilt feeling toward the Jews increases Germany’s interest in reaching Palestinian-Israeli peace;” 22% said they agreed with both statements and 15% disagreed with both.
• When asked to select the statement with which they agreed most from among two other statements, 47% selected “German assistance to Israel strengthens occupation” while 15% selected “German assistance to Palestine strengthens the chances to end occupation;” 20% said they agreed with both statements and 11% disagreed with both.
• 48% believe that Germany’s policy toward Israel and Palestine is biased in favor of Israel; 38% believe it is neutral, and 8% believe it is biased in favor of Palestine.
• 44% believe that the German position is similar to positions taken by other EU countries in terms of fairness on Palestinian-Israeli issues, while 36% believe that the German position is better than positions taken by other EU countries and 12% believe it is worse than positions of other EU countries.
• We read to respondents few statements of fact about Germany and asked them if each made their impression more or less favorable. Impression about Germany turned unfavorable by an overwhelming majority of 89% after hearing that Germany has given Israel five submarines over the past decade; 8% said their impression became more favorable after hearing the statement, By contrast, 86% said their impression became favorable, and 12% unfavorable, after hearing that Germany has provided the PA in 2015 with 215 million Euros spent mostly on developmental projects such as schools and infrastructure. Similarly, 86% became more favorable and 11% unfavorable after hearing that the Germany supports the work of the PA police in training and technical matters such as fingerprints and others. 53% became more favorable and 40% unfavorable after hearing that Germany has approved plans to provide military assistance to fight ISIS.
• We also read statements made by the German Chancellor Merkel and asked the respondents if each made their impression of the Chancellor more or less favorable. 86% said that their impression of Merkel became unfavorable, and 10% favorable, after hearing her statement that Germany’s support for Israel’s security is part of Germany’s national ethos and raison d’etre. Similarly, 81% became more unfavorable, and 15% favorable, after hearing Merkel’s statement that Germany sells weapons to Israel and that Germany has a special obligation to support Israel and that at the same time it insists that there should just as well be a Palestine state. On the other hand, 71% said that their impression of the chancellor has become more favorable, and 25% unfavorable, when hearing Merkel’s statement that Israeli settlements are counterproductive to the goal of the two-state solution.

(3) Germany and Israel

• 54% agree and 41% disagree that Germany supports Israel’s right to exist. By comparison, 69% agree and 30% disagree that the US supports Israeli’s right to exist; and 40% agree and 58% disagree that the PA supports Israel’s right to exist. In December 2014, 55% believed that Germany supports Israel’s right to exist and 32% did not believe that.
• 68% describe Germany-Israel relationship as strong and 16% describe it as weak; 10% describe it as neither strong nor weak. By comparison, 94% describe US-Israel relationship as strong and 3% describe it as weak; 2% describe it as neither.
• 47% think that due to the Holocaust, Israel and Germany will always have a special relationship in the future while 43% think that the past has no connection to the future and should have no influence on the relationship. In December 2014, 47% said that due to past historical events, Israel and Germany will always have a special relationship in the future while 34% said that the past has no connection to the future and should have no influence on the relationship.
• 43% think that Germany will always support Israel because of the Holocaust while 48% think that the Holocaust is not the main reason for German support for Israel. In December 2014, 42% said that Germany will always support Israel because of the Holocaust while 38% said that the Holocaust is not the main reason for the German support for Israel.
• 70% believe that Germany-Israel relationship is based more on common interests, 15% say it is based on common history, 8% say it is based on common future, and 3% say it is based on common values.
• 24% think that Israel-Germany relationship is best described as unstable; 17% think it is strong; 14% think it is friendly, and 6% think it is fragile.

(4) Germany and Palestine

• 42%% describe Germany-Palestine relationship as strong and 33% describe it as weak; 21% describe it as neither strong nor weak. By comparison, only 16% describe US-Palestine relationship as strong and 65% describe it as weak; 17% describe it as neither. 7% describe Israel-Palestine relationship as strong and 80% describe it as weak; 12% describe it as neither.
• In an open-ended question, 15% believed that among the EU countries, Palestine has the best relations with France and 14% say with Germany. By contrast, in a close-ended question, 30% said that of the EU countries, Palestine should have the best relations with Germany while 20% select France. In December 2014, 12% said Germany had the best relations with Palestine and 25% selected Germany as the country with which they wanted Palestine to have the best relations followed by France (selected by 20%).
• 66% agree and 28% disagree that the German government supports the Palestinian right to a state. By comparison, only 34% agree and 63% disagree that the US government supports the Palestinian right to a state and only 23% agree and 75% disagree that Israel supports the Palestinian right to a state. In December 2014, only 53% believed that the German government supports the Palestinians’ right to statehood and 32% do not believe that.  
• 54% agree and 38% disagree that Germany can be trusted and relied upon by the PA. By comparison, 53% agree and 41% disagree that the EU can be trusted and relied upon by the PA and only 26% agree and 69% disagree that the US can be trusted and relied upon by the PA.
• 73% agree and 21% disagree that due to the Holocaust, Germany and Palestine should have a special relationship.
• 42% believe that Germany-Palestine relationship is based more on common interests, 20% say it is based on common future, 16% say it is based on common values, and 11% say it is based on common history.
• 25% think that Palestine-Germany relationship is best described as unstable; 19% think it is friendly; 9% think it is fragile, and 4% think it is strong. By comparison, 38% think Palestine-US relationship is best described as unstable, 34% as fragile, 5% as friendly, and 2% as strong.
• 39% think that Palestine-Germany relations are mainly shaped by the governments, 14% think by the people, 11% by the parliaments, and 10% by the lobby. By comparison, 43% think that Palestine-US relations are mainly shaped by the governments, 13% by the lobby, 11% by the people, and 11% by the parliaments.

 (5) Waves of Refugees

• 88% support and 11% oppose the German decision to accept almost one million refugees mainly from Syria. 86% indicate that their impression of Germany has become more favorable as a result of the German decision and 11% became less favorable.
• 59% believe that one million refugees living in Germany will have a positive effect and 26% think it will have a negative effect on Germany as a country; 10% believe it will have no effect. But only 22% believe that it will have a positive effect on Germany-Israeli relations and 41% believe it will have a negative effect; 30% believe it will have no effect. However, 57% believe it will have a positive effect on Germany-Palestinian relations and 9% believe it will have a negative effect; 28% believe it will have no effect.
• Commenting on Germany’s open door policy for refugees, two thirds (66%) believe that Germany, due to its involvement in the Middle East, has a moral obligation to accept migrants while 26% believe that Germany today is a modern country and is not obligated to accept migrants based on its history.
• 70% indicate that the German policy toward the refugees is more humanitarian than the policies of most Arab countries and 4% indicate it is less humanitarian; 21% indicate that it is the same as the policies of most Arab countries. Similarly, 56% indicate that the EU policy toward the refugees is more humanitarian than the policies of most Arab countries and 8% think it is less humanitarian; 30% indicate that it is the same as the policies of most Arab countries.

(6) US presidential election

• In an open-ended question, 20% selected Hilary Clinton as the preferred candidate in the current US presidential elections; Jeb Bush and Donald Trump received 3% each, Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz received 2% each, and 63% selected no one or refused to answer. We asked respondents to tell us if they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each of the candidates. Highest favorable impression (25%) went to Clinton, and 19% indicated they have not heard of her.  Bush received 5% favorable impression and 47% indicated they have not heard of him. Cruz received 4% favorable impression and 66% have not heard of him. Sanders received 3% favorable impression and 68% have not heard of him. Trump received 3% favorable impression and 59% have not heard of him. Finally, Marco Rubio received 2% favorable impression and 63% have not heard of him. 
• 28% think that when it comes to US foreign policy, the most important issue the new president will choose to focus on will be ISIS and fighting global terror; 18% selected the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and 16% selected the Iranian nuclear threat. 26% indicated that the new president will focus on all three issues and 7% indicated that the focus will be on issues other than these three. But when asked if it was up to them, 59% of the respondents indicated that they wanted the new president to focus on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, 11% on ISIS, and 4% on the nuclear issue.  
• 27% think that a Democratic US president would be better for the peace process and 16% think a republican president would be better; 52% think it makes no difference. Similarly, 26% think a democratic president would be better for Palestinian-American relations and 17% think a republican president would be better; 51% think it makes no difference.
• 79% disagree and 16% agree with Trump’s statement regarding banning Muslims from entering the US until the US is able to understand the problem of Muslim attacks on the US and the threat it poses to the US.
• 59% agree and 37% disagree with Clinton’s statement that efforts should continue to achieve Israeli-Palestinian peace and that the best outcome for both sides is a two-state solution. 
• Only 12% believe that Arab American community in the US has a significant influence on US foreign policy and 82% think the community’s influence is insignificant. On the other hand, 76% think that the Jewish American community in the US has a significant influence on the US foreign policy and 19% think it has an insignificant influence.