Elections, Redeployment, Peace Process after Assassination of Rabin


December 7-10, 1995

 

This is the Survey Research Unit's (SRU) twenty- first public opinion poll and covers the topics of elections, redeployment, the peace process, and the Electoral Law. The SRU has been conducting regular public opinion polls to document an important phase in the history of the Palestinian people and to record the reactions of the Palestinian community with regard to currentpolitical events. CPRS does not adopt political positions and does not tolerate attempts to influence the conclusions reached or published for political motives. CPRS is committed to providing a scholarly contribution to analysis and objective study and to publishing the results of all our studies and research. Poll results provide a vital resource for the community and for researchers needing statistical information and analysis. The polls give members of the community opportunity to voice their opinion and to seek to influence decision makers on issues of concern to them.

Following is an analysis of the results of the twenty- first opinion poll conducted by the SRU.           


General Background


The most important event preceeding this poll has been the assasination of Israel's prime minister, Yitzhak Rabin, by a young Jew opposed to the peace process. Mr. Shimon Peres became Israel's new prime minister forming a new government based on the old coalition. Mr. Peres reiterated Israel's commitment to the Taba agreement and the redeployment timetable. The Palestinian Authority took over the control of the city of Jenin, and Mr. Arafat visited the city a few days later. Prepartation continued for the Israeli evacuation of other Palestinian cities and villages. Meanwhile, Palestinian security and political prisoners were transfered to Israeli jails inside Israel. Occaisional confrontations between Palestinian villagers and Israeli soldiers took place as Palestinians protested Israeli confiscations of Palestinian land.

Voter registration campaign continued in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and teams of international observers began to arrive in order to supervise the election process. Palestinians continued to debate the proposed election law which was approved by the Palestinian Authority.

 


Methodology


The questionnaire was designed through consultations with experts. A pre- test involving fifty questionnaires was conducted in the Nablus area prior to the poll. The questionnaire instrument includes a large number of demographic variables as indicated in the section on sample distribution.

Household Sample Selection

SRU researchers adopted a multi- stage sample selection process. The process of sample selection began with the creation of lists of all locations in the West Bank and Gaza according to district, population size and distribution, and type of locality (city, town, village, and refugee camp). A proportional random sample of locations to be surveyed was selected from these lists, and fieldworkers and researchers created maps of these localities. These maps indicate the boundaries, main streets, and clusters of residential neighborhoods in these areas which were further divided into a number of sampling units (blocks) with each unit comprising an average of one hundred housing units. The sample units (blocks) to be surveyed were selected randomly.

Households were selected based on a systematic sampling framework. For example, if the fieldworker estimated the number of houses in the sampling unit to be one hundred and was assigned ten interviews, the fieldworker divided the 100 by 10, obtaining 10. Therefore, the fieldworker would conduct the first interview in the 10^ house, and the second in the 20th, and so on. Fieldworkers started their sample selection of housing units from a well- defined point in the area such as a post office, mosque, business, etc. They reported on the direction of their sampling walks, and played an active role in drawing the maps for the localities in the sample and estimating the number of houses in each block. Interviews were conducted between the 7th and 10th of December, 1995. The sample distribution included 1168 persons, 729 in the West Bank and 415 in the Gaza Strip.

 


Sample Distribution


(Expressed as a % of the total sample)

Sample Distribution

Dec. 1995
(Population)

Sample
Distribution

Dec. 1995
(Population)

West Bank
Gaza Strip

63.0(63)
37.0(37)

Education
Up to 9 years
10-12 years
Two years College University
Degree(s)


52.0(53)
28.0(27)
09.0(20*)
11.0
*for all post
secondary degrees

City
Town/Village
Ref. Camp

39.0
36.0
25.0

Single
Married
Divorced or
Widowed

16.0
79.0
05.0

Age
18-22
23-26
27-30
31-35
36-42
43-50
0ver 50


16.0(15.4)
13.0(12.2)
13.0(14.2)
14.0(14.6)
16.0(15.5)
11.0(12.5)
18.0(15.6)

Occupation
Laborers
Craftsmen
Housewives
Specialists*
Employees**
Merchants
Students
Farmers
Retired
None


12.0
08.0
47.0
03.0
10.0
05.0
04.0
02.0
01.0
09.0

Male
Female

45.0(49)
55.0(51)

Muslim
Christian

96.0(95.5)
05.0(04.5)

  

Refugee
Non-Refugee

46.0(42)
54.0(58)

*Specialists (University teacher, engineer, doctor, lawyer, pharmacist, executive)
**Employees (school teacher, government employee, nurse, lower-level company employee)
--Population Estimates are based on the "Statistical Abstract of Israel" (1993) and FAFO (1993), and Palestinian Statistical Bureau (1994)

 


Data Collection


Our data collectors have participated in a number of workshops where the goals of the poll were discussed. They were also lectured on household interviewing, confidence building, mapping, sampling techniques, survey methods, and scientific research. Four special training seminars for data collectors were conducted during this month, attended by a total of seventy fieldworkers. Training for data collection was conducted in the field where actual illustrations of the sample selection and interviewing techniques were demonstrated.

Data collectors worked in teams of two supervised by qualified researchers. CPRS researchers made random visits to interview stations and discussed the research process with data collectors. More than fifty percentofour datacollectors are female so as to ensure the representation of women in the sample. Data collectors were assigned a limited number of interviews (an average of 15 per team) to allow for careful interviewing.

Household interviews resulted in a non- response rate estimated at 2%. Some respondents, we believe, were reluctant to state their political views out of fear or disinterest in the present political factions.

 


Data Analysis


Data were processed through the use of SPSS, a computer package that is able to detect illogical answers and other inconsistencies. The margin of error for this poll is +3 %.


Results


I. Criteria in Selecting Candidates

Palestinians were questioned about a number of issues related to their expected voting behavior. These issues include: candidates' views of the peace process, party, and qualifications.

A. Voting Behavior and Candidates

Views A total of 57% of the respondents indicate that they will vote for qualified candidates regardless of their views of the peace process. At the same time, however, 85 % said they will vote for qualified candidates who support the peace process, while 19% will vote for opposition candidates. Willingness to vote for peace supporters is high in all areas of the West Bank and Gaza Strip though highest in Senin and Gaza City, while support for candidates opposed to the peace process is highest in Jericho, Ramallah, and Middle Gaza. A large percentage of Nablus and Gaza residents will vote for candidates regardless of political views (see Table 2).

Table 2
Readiness to Elect Candidates by Place of Interview

 

Candidates Supportive of Peace Process

Candidates Opposed to Peace Process

Regardless of Candidates' Political Position

Nablus

84.7

16.0

67.2

Tulkarm

84.5

15.5

58.2

Jenin

91.3

10.0

55.0

Ramallah

84.4

31.3

53.1

Hebron

78.3

19.1

52.2

Bethlehem

82.9

18.6

55.7

Jerusalem

78.8

10.0

42.5

Gaza N.

81.5

15.4

47.7

Gaza City

94.4

125.5

61.5

Gaza M.

85.1

24.4

60.0

Gaza S.

81.4

17.1

62.9

(N-north, M-middle, S-south)

Readiness to vote for candidates opposed to the peace process increases among Palestinians with more education; 33% of Bachelor degree holders declared their willingness to vote for opposition candidates compared with 11.3 % of illiterate respondents. Education does not play a significant role among respondents who declared their intention to vote for candidates regardless of their political views (see Table 3).

Table 3
Readiness to Elect Candidates by Education

 

Candidates Supportive of Peace Process

Candidates Opposed to Peace Process

Regardless of Candidates' Political Position

Illiterate

88.6

11.3

57.9

Elementary

88.0

16.1

54.2

Preparatory

86.0

16.0

59.9

Secondary

85.5

19.7

55.8

2 yr. College

83.2

22.8

55.4

Bachelor

70.6

33.0

54.1

..............More