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Joint Israeli Palestinian Poll, September 2012

Around 80% of Palestinians and of Israelis think that if Israel were to carry out a military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, a major regional war will erupt. However a majority of Israelis do not believe that Israel will strike and the climate of opinion is against it

These are the results of the most recent Joint Israeli-Palestinian Poll conducted jointly by the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah. The poll was supported by the Ford Foundation Cairo office and the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ramallah and Jerusalem.

82% of Palestinians and 77% of Israelis think that if Israel were to carry out a military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, a major regional war will erupt. 

A majority of Israelis (70%) do not believe now that Israel will bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities without the US, and the climate of opinion in Israel regarding such a strike changed significantly since June: 65% of Israelis think now that the majority of the Israeli public opposes an Israeli strike against Iran without the US, compared to 52% in June. The actual level of support of Israelis for a strike against Iran has not changed: 52% support the cooperation between the US and Israel in bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities, 18% support a strike by Israel alone without the cooperation of the US, and 24% oppose any strike. 

Given the ongoing stalemate in the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, the most popular options among Palestinians are to go to the Security Council to obtain recognition of a Palestinian state (73%), followed by popular non-violent and unarmed resistance (61%) and a unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state (56%). Israelis however think that the two most likely actions of the Palestinians are to approach the UN Security Council to obtain recognition of a Palestinian state (27%) and to return to the armed intifada (23%). 

The Palestinian sample size was 1270 adults interviewed face-to-face in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip in 127 randomly selected locations between September 13 and 15, 2012. The margin of error is 3%. The Israeli sample includes 600 adult Israelis interviewed by phone in Hebrew, Arabic or Russian between September 9 and 14, 2012. The margin of error is 4.5%. The poll was planned and supervised by Prof. Yaacov Shamir, the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace and the Department of Communication and Journalism at the Hebrew University, and Prof. Khalil Shikaki, Director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR). 

For further details on the Palestinian survey contact PSR director, Prof. Khalil Shikaki or Walid Ladadweh, at tel. 02-2964933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org. On the Israeli survey, contact Prof Yaacov Shamir at tel. 03-6419429 or email jshamir@mscc.huji.ac.il.

MAIN FINDINGS: 

(A) Israeli military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities

• 77% of Israelis think that if Israel were to carry out a military strike against Iran, a major regional war will erupt; 20% of Israelis do not think so. Among Palestinians, 82% think that such a strike would lead to a major war and 16% do not think so.
• 52% of Israelis support the cooperation between the US and Israel in bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities, 18% support a strike by Israel alone without the cooperation of the US, and 24% oppose any strike. The corresponding figures in our previous poll in June were very similar: 51%, 19% and 26% correspondingly. However the climate of opinion changed significantly since June: 65% of Israelis think now that the majority of the Israeli public opposes an Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities without the US compared to 52% in June.
• Correspondingly, Israelis (70%) do not believe that Israel will bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities without the US in the coming months; 23% believe it will.
• 56% of Israelis think that all the Iranians hate Jews (26% oppose this statement). But only 20% believe that the purpose of the Iranians is to destroy Israel (60% oppose this statement), and 22% believe that the Iranians understand only the language of force (58% oppose). 28% blame only the Iranians for the current crisis, while 51% oppose it.

 (B) Attitudes and expectations regarding the peace process

• Majorities among Israelis (73%) and Palestinians (71%) view the chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state next to Israel in the next five years as low or non-existent.
• A majority of 61% Israelis and 52% of Palestinians supports a two-state solution, while 36% of Israelis and 46% of Palestinians oppose it. However 50% of Israelis and 57% of Palestinians think that the two-state solution is bound to fail because of the settlements; 47% of Israelis and 37% of Palestinians think the two-state solution is still relevant. At the same time, majorities among Israelis (65%) and among Palestinians (68%) oppose the one state solution in which Arabs and Jews enjoy equality; 31% of Israelis and 30% of Palestinians support this solution.
• As we do periodically in our joint polls, we asked Israelis and Palestinians about their readiness for a mutual recognition of identity as part of a permanent status agreement and after all issues in the conflict are resolved and a Palestinian State is established. Our current poll shows that 62% of the Israeli public supports such a mutual recognition and 30% oppose it. Among Palestinians, 44% support and 54% oppose this step. In June 2012, 53% of the Israelis supported and 43% opposed this mutual recognition of identity; among Palestinians, 43% supported and 55% opposed this step.

(C) Conflict management and threat perceptions

• Given the ongoing stalemate in the peace process, 42% of the Israelis think that armed attacks will not stop and the two sides will not return to negotiations. 46% of the Israelis believe that negotiations will continue but some armed attacks will continue as well. Only 7% of Israelis believe negotiations will continue and armed confrontations will stop. Among the Palestinians, 19% think that some armed attacks will take place and the two sides will not return to negotiations, 31% think the two sides will soon return to negotiations, and 26% think the two sides will return to negotiations but some armed attacks will take place. Finally, 18% think the two sides will not return to negotiations and there will be no armed attacks.
• Given the stalemate in the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, the most popular options among Palestinians are to go to the Security Council to obtain recognition of a Palestinian state, followed by popular non-violent and unarmed resistance. 73% support the first option, 61% support the second. 56% support a unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state; 44% support the dissolution of the Palestinian Authority; 39% support return to an armed Intifada; and 28% support the abandonment of the two-state solution and the demand for the establishment of one state for Palestinians and Israelis
• When Israelis are asked what they think the Palestinians will do if there will be no negotiations in the near future, 27% of the Israelis say they will go to the Security Council to obtain a recognition of a Palestinian state; 23% think they will return to the armed intifada; 15% think they will unilaterally declare the establishment of a Palestinian state; 11% think they will abandon the two-state solution and demand the establishment of one state for Palestinians and Israelis; 6% think they will resort to popular non violent and unarmed resistance; and 6% say they will dissolve the Palestinian Authority.
• Among Israelis, 51% are worried and 48% are not worried that they or their family may be harmed by Arabs in their daily life, as they were in June 2012. Among Palestinians, 72% are worried that they or a member of their family could be hurt by Israel in their daily life or that their land would be confiscated or home demolished; 28% are not worried. Similar results were obtained in our June poll.
• The level of threat on both sides regarding the aspirations of the other side in the long run is very high. 58% of Palestinians think that Israel’s goals are to extend its borders to cover all the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea and expel its Arab citizens, and 23% think the goals are to annex the West Bank while denying political rights to the Palestinians. The modal category among Israelis is that the Palestinian aspirations in the long run are to conquer the State of Israel and destroy much of the Jewish population in Israel (36%); 18% think the goals of the Palestinians are to conquer the State of Israel. Only 10% of the Palestinians think Israel’s aspirations in the long run are to withdraw from part of the territories occupied in 1967 after guaranteeing its security, and 6% think Israel aspires to withdraw from all of the territories occupied in 1967 after guaranteeing its security. 26% of Israelis think the aspirations of the Palestinians are to regain all of the territories conquered in 1967, and 16% think the Palestinians aspire to regain some of the territories conquered in 1967.
• These mutual perceptions are very much off the mark.

15% of the Israelis say the aspirations of Israel are to withdraw to the 1967 border after guaranteeing Israel’s security; 43% say it is to withdraw from parts of the territories after guaranteeing Israel’s security; 15% say it is to annex the West Bank without granting political rights to the Palestinians living there; and 15% say it is to annex the West Bank and expel the Palestinians living there.           

• Among the Palestinians 37% say that the aspirations of the Palestinian Authority and the PLO are to regain some of the territories conquered in the 1967 war; 29% say it is to regain all the territories conquered in the 1967 war; 15% say it is to conquer the State of Israel and regain control over the pre 1948 Palestine; and 9% say it is to conquer the State of Israel and destroy much of the Jewish population in Israel
• Given the election of President Morsi in Egypt and the big changes he recently enacted in the senior military leadership, we asked Israelis and Palestinians what they expect will happen with the peace treaty and the relationship between Egypt and Israel. 9% of the Israelis and 12% of the Palestinians think that the peace treaty will be cancelled and armed conflict will resume; 28% of the Israelis and 19% of the Palestinians think that Egypt will work to erode the peace treaty but armed conflict will not resume; 47% of the Israelis and 42% of the Palestinians think that there will be no change in the relationship between Egypt and Israel or with regard to the peace treaty; and 12% of the Israelis and 21% of the Palestinians think that the Egyptian government will respect the peace treaty and relations between Israel and Egypt will improve.

(D) Domestic affairs and other issues

• A majority of the Palestinians think that if Obama wins the US Presidential elections, his victory will have no impact on Palestinian conditions (51%); 32% think it will have a negative impact, and 9% believe it will have a positive impact. Israelis prefer Mitt Romney to Barack Obama: 34% think Romney will be a better President for Israel, while only 26% say Obama; about a fifth of the respondents do not know.
• When Palestinians are asked to chose among four vital national goals for the Palestinian people, 44% selected the end of Israeli occupation in the areas occupied in 1967 and the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital; 30% selected the right of return of refugees, 15% selected building an Islamic society, and 11% selected the establishment of a democratic political system.
• As in other opinion polls carried out recently, the Likud leads in terms of vote intention of Israelis if the elections for the Knesset were to be held now with 16%` the Labor party is in second place with 12%. When we add to the list of political parties a party of the social protest movement, 10% indicate they would vote for such a party, which puts her in third place after the Likud which declines to 12% and Labor with 11%. Since such a party has not been actually proclaimed, this prognosis is premature and speculative; however these results are noteworthy as they hold for a long time after the social protest of the summer of 2011; in March 2012 14% indicated they would vote for such a party in a similar question, and in June – 8%.
• On the Palestinian side, if presidential and parliamentary elections were to take place today, Abbas receives 51% of the vote and Ismail Haniyeh 40% of those participating in the presidential elections, while Fateh wins 37% and Hamas 28% of the popular vote of those participating in the parliamentary elections; all other parties combined receive 13% of the vote and 23% say they have not decided to whom they will vote.

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (28)

With Abbas Regaining Some of his Popularity and Hamas losing some of its popularity, and despite widespread support for a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, an overwhelming majority of Palestinians opposes a ceasefire that does not include the West Bank or does not stipulate an immediate opening of the Rafah crossing to Egypt

5-7 June 2008   

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 5 and 7 June 2008. This period witnessed the declaration by the President of the Palestinian Authority (PA) Mahmud Abbas of his desire to renew dialogue with Hamas. It also witnessed continued closure of the Rafah border crossing despite Hamas’s attempt to open it. Indirect negotiations between Hamas and Israel on a ceasefire failed to produce agreement while the threat of a possible Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip escalated further. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%. This press release covers domestic Palestinian issues; issues related to the peace process and Israeli-Palestinian relations will be covered in a separate joint Palestinian-Israeli press release. For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

 Main Findings:

Findings indicate a limited decline in the various indicators of Hamas’s power in the second quarter of 2008 compared to the first quarter of the year. Decline can be seen in the popularity of the movement, the popularity of its prime minister Ismail Haniyeh, and in the percentage of those who describe Haniyeh’s government as legitimate.  By contrast, Mahmud Abbas’s popularity and the positive evaluation of his performance increase compared to his standing in the first quarter of this year. Moreover, positive evaluation of conditions in the West Bank increases as feelings of safety and security improve. A majority believes that the recently deployed Palestinian security forces have succeeded in enforcing law and order in the areas of their deployment in the West Bank; this is particularly true in the Nablus and Jenin areas. As expected, the largest percentage believes that Abbas is more able than Hamas’s government in reaching a peace agreement with Israel. But surprisingly, the largest percentage believes that Abbas is also more able than Hamas’s government in forcing Israel to make more concessions to the Palestinians.

The changes in the second quarter of 2008 might have been the result of two developments: Abbas has taken the initiative away from Hamas when he gave the green light for a resumption of dialogue with Hamas and Hamas has failed in moving forward any of the issues it championed during this period. These issues included the opening of the Rafah border crossing and forcing Israel to agree to a ceasefire with the Islamist group. In the first quarter of this year, Abbas and his government, headed by Salam Fayyad, were seen by the public as impotent in confronting Israel’s policies such as settlement construction and the increased restrictions on movement. By contrast, Hamas was seen as successful in breaking the siege on Gaza and in retaliating against Israel by carrying out two major armed attacks inside Israel, such as the suicide attack in Dimona and the attack at Merkaz Harav religious school in West Jerusalem. The measures taken by Hamas in the first quarter of 2008 managed to present the Islamist group as successful in confronting Israel at a time when Abbas and his government were seen as lacking the initiative.

Findings also indicate that an overwhelming majority of Palestinians supports a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel. But this support disappears if the agreement is to be restricted to the Gaza Strip and does not include the West Bank or if it does not stipulate the immediate opening of the Rafah crossing to Egypt. Findings also show stability in the Palestinian position regarding a permanent settlement along the lines of the Clinton Parameters or the Geneva Initiative with a minority support of less than half of the public. Finally, findings indicate that the idea that says that the two state solution is becoming difficult to achieve and that it is better for the Palestinians to embrace a one state solution where Palestinians and Jews would be equal is unacceptable to the majority of the Palestinians; indeed, only a little more than a quarter support it while the majority continues to support the two-state solution.

1) Domestic Palestinian Conditions

• Standing of Abbas improves as the gap between him and Ismail Haniyeh widens from almost zero to 12 percentage points during the past three months.
• Satisfaction with the performance of Abbas increases from 41% last March to 46% in this poll; moreover, positive evaluation of the performance of Salam Fayyad increases from 30% to 33%, and positive evaluation of the performance of Haniyeh decreases from 39% to 37% during the same period. Belief that Fayyad’s government is the legitimate one rises slightly to 31% and belief that Haniyeh’s government is the legitimate one diminishes slightly to 29%.
• Hamas’s popularity decreases from 35% last March to 31% in this poll; Fateh’s popularity remains stable standing today at 43% compared to 42% last March.
•  Perception of safety and security improves in the West Bank during the past three months rising from 32% to 40%; 57% say that the deployment of Palestinian security forces in the West Bank has been successful in helping to enforce law and order.
• Positive evaluation of democracy in the West Bank is higher than in the Gaza Strip: 33% to 23%.
• 59% believe that the PA handling of the case of the smuggling of mobile phones in the car of the former PLC Speaker was a cover for corruption while only 28% believe it was a case of fighting corruption.
• A larger percentage believes that Abbas is more able than Hamas’s government to reach a peace agreement with Israel and to force Israel to make more concessions to the Palestinians.

The Gap between the standing of PA President Mahmud Abbas and Hamas’s Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh has increased to 12 percentage points in favor of Abbas. If new presidential elections are held today, and the only two candidates were Abbas and Haniyeh, the former would receive the support of 52% and the latter 40%. This finding represents an increase in the popularity of Abbas which stood at 46% last March compared to 47% for Haniyeh. If the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Haniyeh, the former would receive 61% to Haniyeh’s 34%. Level of non-participation in the presidential elections would reach 39% if the competition was between Abbas and Haniyeh and 27% if the competition was between Barghouti and Haniyeh. Satisfaction with the performance of Abbas reaches 46% in this poll (compared to 41% last March). Moreover, 33% (compared to 30% last March) say the performance of Fayyad’s government is good or very good and 38% say it is bad or very bad. By comparison, 37% (compared to 39% last March) say the performance of Haniyeh’s government is good or very good and 35% say it is bad or very bad.

Findings indicate that 45% (compared to 49% last March) believe that Haniyeh should stay in office as prime minister while 47% say he should not. By contrast, 42% (compared to 38% last March) say Fayyad’s government should stay in office and 51% say it should not.  29% say Haniyeh’s government is the legitimate Palestinian government and 31% say Fayyad’s government is the legitimate one; 7% say both governments are legitimate and 28% say both are illegitimate. Three months ago, 34% said Haniyeh’s government was legitimate while 29% said Fayyad’s was legitimate.

Moreover, the gap between Fateh and Hamas increases from 7 percentage points last March to 12 percentage points in this poll. If new parliamentary elections are to take place today, Hamas would receive 31% (compared to 35% last March) and Fateh would received 43% (compared to 42% last March).

Perception of personal and family security and safety increases in the West Bank from 32% last March to 40% in this poll. But the percentage of personal and family security and safety in the Gaza Strip is higher than in the West Bank as it reaches 49% (compared to 46% in Gaza last March). In this regard, 57% say that the deployment of the Palestinian security forces in some cities and towns in the West Bank has succeeded or somewhat succeeded in enforcing law and order while 34% say the deployment has failed to do that. Belief in the success of the security deployment is greatest in the areas of Nablus and Jenin (87% and 81% respectively) followed by Tulkarm (77%), Qalqilia (65%), Ramallah (59%), Bethlehem (57%), Hebron (50%), and Jerusalem (47%). When asked about their perceptions regarding the true purpose of the deployment, 35% said the purpose was to enforce law and order, 28% said it was to disarm the resistance forces, and 23% said it was both, the enforcement of law and order and the disarming of the resistance forces.

While only 23% give a positive evaluation of the status of democracy in the Gaza Strip under the Hamas government, the percentage for the West Bank under Fayyad’s government is higher (33%). Moreover, while only 5% describe the overall conditions of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip as good or very good, the percentage for the overall conditions in the West Bank is higher (25%). A majority of 77% believes that corruption exists in PA institutions that are under the control of PA president and his government and only 14% believe there is no corruption in PA institutions. Among those who believe corruption exists in the PA, 60% believe this corruption will increase or remain the same in the future.  Moreover, a majority of 59% describes PA handling of the case of the smuggling of mobile phones in the car of the former PLC Speaker of the Palestinian parliament as a cover for corruption while only 28% describe it as an example of fighting corruption.

About half of the Palestinians (49%) say that the PA under Mahmud Abbas is more able than Hamas’s government under Ismail Haniyeh to reach a peace agreement with Israel while only 15% say the Hamas government is more able to do so. Moreover, 41% believe that the PA under Abbas is more able than Hamas’s government to force Israel to make more concessions to the Palestinians while only 25% believe Hamas’s government is more able to do so. Even if the choice was between Abbas and Marwan Barghouti, Abbas comes on top with 31% while only 28% believe Barghouti would be more able than Abbas to force Israel to make more concessions to the Palestinians. Belief that Abbas is more able than Hamas to force Israel to make concessions can be seen both in the West Bank (40% to 24%) and the Gaza Strip (44% to 27%), but is more evident among women (45% to 23%) compared to men (37% to 27%), among supporters of the peace process (48% to 22%) compared to those opposed to the peace process (19% to 40%), among illiterates (48% to 18%) compared to those who hold a BA degree (31% to 27%), among those who intend to vote for Fateh’s list (64% to 11%) compared to those who intend to vote for Hamas’s list (31% to 53%). 

2) Ceasefire, the One-State Solution, and the Peace Process

• An overwhelming majority supports a ceasefire with Israel, but a similar majority opposes the ceasefire if it does not include the West Bank or does not stipulate the immediate opening of the Rafah crossing to Egypt.
• In a comparison between the one-state solution and the two-state solution, 58% prefer the two-state solution and 27% prefer the one-state solution.
• Stability in the position of Palestinians regarding a permanent settlement along the lines of the Clinton Parameters and the Geneva Initiative; 46% support it and 52% oppose it.
• 56% support and 43% oppose mutual recognition of Israel and the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people after reaching a permanent settlement.
• 67% support and 28% oppose the Saudi peace initiative.
• 50% support the Roadmap and 47% oppose it.
• An overwhelming majority prefers a permanent settlement and only 15% prefers an interim one.
• 66% believe that the chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state during the next five years are either low or non existent.
• 76% believe that the negotiations launched by the Annapolis conference will fail.
• 68% believe that Olmert-Abbas meetings are not useful and should be stopped while only 27% believe they are useful and should continue.
• Support for armed attacks against Israelis drops from 67% to 55% during three months;  similarly, support for launching rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip drops from 64% to 57% during the same period.
• Two thirds believe that success in the Syrian-Israeli track will not have a negative impact on the Palestinian-Israeli track.

Findings show that 78% support and 21% oppose a ceasefire agreement with Israel. But support decreases sharply to 23% if the agreement is to be restricted to the Gaza Strip and exclude the West Bank. Moreover, support drops further to 20% if the agreement does not include the immediate opening of the Gaza Crossings, especially the Rafah crossing to Egypt. Opposition to a ceasefire agreement that does not include the West Bank is high both in the Gaza Strip (78%) and the West Bank (74%). The same is true if the agreement does not stipulate the opening of the crossings, reaching 80% in the Gaza Strip and 78% in the West Bank.

Findings indicate that 38% believe that a one-state solution (one based on the establishment of a unified state that includes Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip whereby Palestinian Arabs enjoy equal rights as Israeli Jews) is more difficult to achieve than a two-state solution (one in which a Palestinian state is established next to the state of Israel). But a similar percentage (36%) believes the two-state solution is more difficult to achieve, and 25% believe that the two solutions are equally difficult to achieve. Regardless of its difficulty, 58% say they prefer the two-state solution while only 27% prefer the one state solution. 10% prefer other solutions. Support for the two state solution compared to the one state solution increases in the West Bank (58% to 25%) compared to the Gaza Strip (56% to 31%), in rural areas (61% to 23%) compared to cities (57% to 28%) and refugee camps (50% to 36%), among supporters of the peace process (63% to 26%), compared to those opposed to the peace process (40% to 32%), among the illiterates (65% to 21%) compared to holders of BA degree (52% to 25%), among those who are certainly willing to buy a lottery ticket (75% to 17%) compared to those who are certainly unwilling to buy a lottery ticket ( 49% to 25%), among refugees (58% to 25%) compared to non-refugees (58% to 28%), and among those who intend to vote for Fateh’s list (68% to 25%) compared to those who intend to vote for Hamas’s list (46% to 30%).

Support for a permanent settlement along the Clinton Parameters and the Geneva Initiative remains stable with a minority support of 46% and 52% opposition. A majority of 63% supports the article on borders and territorial exchange and a majority of 56% supports the article on end of conflict. Only a minority supports all other articles: 28% support a state without an army, 38% support the Jerusalem compromise, 41% support the refugee compromise, and 38% support the security measures. Findings also indicate that 56% support and 43% oppose a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people after the two sides reach an agreement on all other issues of permanent settlement including Jerusalem and refugees. Moreover, 73% would support and 26% would oppose reconciliation between the two peoples after reaching a peace agreement. 67% support and 28% oppose the Saudi initiative which calls for Arab recognition of Israel and normalization of relations with it after its withdrawal from all occupied Arab territories and the establishment of a Palestinian state. Support for the Roadmap reaches 50% and opposition 47%. Findings indicate that the overwhelming majority (81%) prefers a comprehensive and permanent settlement that ends the conflict while only 15% prefer an interim settlement that leads to the establishment of a Palestinian state but postpone other issues such as refugees.

Findings show a pessimistic outlook dominating Palestinian expectations regarding the peace process. 66% believe that chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state in the next five years are low or non existent and only 30% believe the chances are medium or high. Moreover, 76% believe that the negotiations launched by the Annapolis Conference will fail and only 16% believe they will succeed. 75% believe that it is impossible these days to reach a permanent settlement with the current Olmert government while only 22% believe it is possible to reach an agreement with it. These percentages are similar to those we found during the past six months. For all of this, 68% believe that meetings between Abbas and Olmert are not useful and should be stopped while only 27% believe they are useful and should continue.

Support for armed attacks against Israeli civilians inside Israel drops from 67% last March to 55% in this poll. Moreover, support for launching rockets from the Gaza Strip against Israeli towns and cities such as Sderot and Ashkelon has dropped from 64% last march to 57% in this poll.

Finally, 32% believe that serious progress in Syrian-Israeli peace talks or reaching a peace agreement will contribute positively to Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, but 26% believe that such development would constitute an impediment in Palestinian-Israeli negotiations and 35% believe such progress will have no impact.

3) Conflict in Lebanon between Hezbollah and the Future trend

• 52% describe Hezbollah’s temporary armed control of West Beirut as legitimate and 36% describe it as illegitimate.
• Half of the public expects the eruption of civil war in Lebanon between the Sunnites and the Shiites in the aftermath of Hezbollah’s control over West Beirut.
• If civil war does erupt, 37% expect the Shiites to win and 18% expect he Sunnites to win.
• If such civil war erupts, 34% say they will support the Sunnites under the leadership of the Future trend and 21% say they will support the Shiites under the leadership of the Shiites and Hezbollah; 35% say they will support neither side.

Findings show that a majority of 52% view Hezbollah’s armed control over West Beirut in August as legitimate and 36% view it as illegitimate. Despite the fact that the Lebanese parties have reached an agreement in Doha to settle their differences, 45% of the Palestinians expect a return to civil war in Lebanon, this time between Sunnites and Shiites as a result of the Hezbollah behavior and the conflict between Hezbollah and the Future trend while 44% do not expect that. If civil war between Sunnites and Shiites erupts in Lebanon, 37% expect the Shiites under the leadership of Hezbollah and Amal movement to win it, 18% expect the Sunnites under the leadership of the Future trend to win it, 29% expect neither side to win it, and 16% do not know who would win it. As to which side they will support if civil war erupts, 34% say they will support the Sunnites under the leadership of the Future trend, 21% say they will support the Shiites under the leadership of Hezbollah and Amal movement, and 35% say they will support neither side. Support for Sunnites vs. Shiites increases in the Gaza Strip (45% to 14%) compared to the West Bank (28% to 26%), in refugee camps (43% to 14%) compared to cities (36% to 19%) and rural areas (29% to 26%), among supporters of the peace process (36% to 22%) compared to those opposed to the peace process (32% to 23%), among those who describe themselves as religious (37% to 20%) compared to those who describe themselves as somewhat religious (33% to 22%), among holders of BA degree (37% to 17%), compared to illiterates (20% to 32%), among those working in the public sector (44% to 15%), compared to those working in the private sector (33% to 23%), among those who certainly refuse to buy a lottery ticket (38% to 17%) compared to those who certainly accept to buy a lottery ticket (33% to 29%), among refugees (36% to 17%) compared to non refugees (33% to 24%), and among supporters of Fateh (44% to 18%) compared to supporters of Hamas (37% to 26%). ....Full Report

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 7-10 December 2017. The poll was conducted one day after the announcement by President Trump that he is recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and during a period in which limited clashes occurred between Palestinian protesters and Israeli soldiers throughout the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. By then, the Palestinian Authority has already publicly condemned the US measure and announced cessation of peace-related contacts with Washington. On the domestic front, reconciliation efforts continued to produce slow progress and a meeting held in Cairo declared that elections will take place before the end of 2018. This press release addresses these issues and covers other matters such as general conditions in the Palestinian territories and certain aspects of the peace process. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel. 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

Main Findings:

Findings of the last quarter of 2017 show that the overwhelming majority of the Palestinians view the decision by US President Donald Trump as a threat to Palestinian interests, one that requires an appropriate response. But the public is divided on what would be considered appropriate. While the largest percentage favors ending contacts with the US, submitting a formal complaint to the International Criminal Court, and a resumption of an armed intifada, the majority continues to favor responses that exclude armed struggle, despite the rise in support for such struggle during the past three months. Furthermore, it seems obvious that the public does not think that its leadership shares its view on what is considered to be an appropriate response to the American step.

In light of the US step, findings show an almost total public distrust of the role of regional powers, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan and Qatar, in the peace efforts organized by the US Administration. More than three quarters believe that Palestine is no longer the Arab’s first cause. Indeed, more than70% believe that despite the continuation of Israeli occupation, an alliance already exists between Sunni Arab states and Israel.

On top of that there is little or no confidence in the US Administration and its peace intentions. An overwhelming majority believes that any Trump peace plan will not meet the basic Palestinian need to end occupation and build an independent state. But here too one can see the gap between the position of the public and the public assessment of the position of the Palestinian leadership. Despite public confidence that the Trump ideas cannot serve as a basis for negotiations, about half of the public believes that President Abbas might accept the American ideas. Furthermore, more than 70% of the public believe that major Arab countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt will also accept the Trump ideas.

Findings show that the public fully supports the assumption of security control by the reconciliation government in the Gaza Strip. In return, the public demands that the reconciliation government pay the salaries of the civil and security sectors which worked in the past under Hamas’ government. The public is also firmly opposed to the disarmament of the various armed groups in the Gaza Strip. Moreover, a majority demands the resignation of the reconciliation government if it does not lift the sanctions imposed by the PA over the Strip. If a national unity government is established, about half of the public rejects the idea that such a government should follow the peace program of President Abbas; only a minority wants the unity government to embrace Abbas’ peace program.

Finally, findings show how the US step has harmed Abbas’ popularity with further decline in his standing and increased demand for his resignation. Demand for Abbas resignation stands today at 70%, a first since such demand became high three years ago. If new presidential elections, in which Abbas competes against Hamas’ Ismail Haniyeh, are held today, the latter could easily win. Even if the candidate against Abbas came from the small third parties (such as Mustafa Barghouti from al Mubadara), findings show that it is doubtful that Abbas could win. On the other hand, the party balance remains relatively stable, compared to the findings three months ago, with Fatah having an edge against Hamas. Hamas is more popular than Fatah in the Gaza Strip while Fatah is more popular than Hamas in the West Bank.

(1) Presidential and parliamentary elections: 

• 70% of the public want president Abbas to resign while 26% want him to remain in office. Three months ago, 67% said they want Abbas to resign. Demand for Abbas’ resignation stands at 64% in the West Bank and 80% in the Gaza Strip. Three months ago demand for Abbas resignation stood at 60% in the West Bank and 80% in the Gaza Strip.
• If president Abbas does not nominate himself in a new election, 35% prefer to see Marwan Barghouti replacing him, while 22% prefer Ismail Haniyeh; Mohammad Dahlan 7% (1% in the West Bank and 15% in the Gaza Strip); Mustapha Barghouti (5%); Rami al Hamdallah (5%), Khalid Mishal (3%), and Salam Fayyad (2%).
• Level of satisfaction with the performance of president Abbas stands at 31% and dissatisfaction at 66%. Level of satisfaction with Abbas stands at 36% in the West Bank and 22% in the Gaza Strip. Three months ago, satisfaction with Abbas stood at 31% (38% in the West Bank and 21% in the Gaza Strip).
• If new presidential elections were held today and only two were nominated, Ismail Haniyeh and Mahmoud Abbas, the former would receive 53% and the latter 41% of the vote (compared to 50% for Haniyeh and 42% for Abbas three months ago). In the Gaza Strip, Abbas receives 33% of the vote (compared to 36% three months ago) and Haniyeh receives 66% (compared to 62% three months ago). In the West Bank Abbas receives 47% (compared to 45% three months ago) and Haniyeh 43% (compared to 42% three months ago). If the competition was between President Abbas from Fatah and Mustafa Barghouti from al Mubadara (Initiative), the two receive an identical percentage of 45%. Mustafa Barghouti receives 57% of the vote in the Gaza Strip and 36% in the West Bank.
• If presidential elections were between three: Mahmud Abbas, Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, Abbas would receive 18%, Barghouti 41% and Haniyeh 36%.  If presidential elections were between two: Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, Barghouti receives 58% and Haniyeh 37%.
• If presidential elections are held soon, 42% want Hamas to nominate one of its leader while 45% prefer to see Hamas supporting a third party or an independent candidate.
• If new legislative elections were held today with the participation of all factions, 66% say they would participate in such elections. Of those who would participate, 30% say they would vote for Hamas and 36% say they would vote for Fatah, 6% would vote for all other third parties combined, and 27% are undecided. Three months ago, vote for Hamas stood at 29% and Fatah at 36%. Vote for Hamas in the Gaza Strip stands today at 36% (compared to 31% three months ago) and for Fatah at 30% (compared to 28% three months ago). In the West Bank, vote for Hamas stands at 26% (compared to 28% three months ago) and Fatah at 41% (compared to 42% three months ago).

(2) Domestic conditions:

• Only 34% of the Palestinian public say people in the West Bank can criticize the PA without fear; 61% of the public say that people cannot criticize the PA without fear.
• Positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip stands at 5% and positive evaluation of conditions in the West Bank stands at 12%.
• Perception of safety and security in the Gaza Strip stands at 53%. In the West Bank perception of safety and security stands at 45%. Three months ago, perception of safety and security in the Gaza Strip stood at 49% and in the West Bank at 50%.
• Findings show that the percentage of Gazans who say they seek to immigrate to other countries stands at 41%; in the West Bank, the percentage stands at 22%. Three months ago, 43% of Gazans and 22% of West Bankers indicated that they seek to immigrate.
• We asked the public about its viewership habits in the last two months. Findings indicate that Al Jazeera TV viewership remains the highest, standing at 20%, followed by Maan TV (15%), al Aqsa TV (14%), Filasteen al Youm/Palestine Today (14%), Palestine TV (11%), Al Arabiya (6%) al Quds TV (6%), and al Mayadeen (3%).  
• Perception of corruption in PA institutions stands at 77%.

(3) Reconciliation and the reconciliation government:  

• 81% want the reconciliation government to pay the salaries of the civil employees of the former Hamas government but 14% do not want it to do so.
• Similarly, 81% of the public want the reconciliation government to pay the salaries of the security sector employees of the former Hamas government and 14% do not want it to do so.
• 78% support placing the police department in the Gaza Strip, which is currently under the control of Hamas, to come under the control of the reconciliation government so that the police departments in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip would come under the one command and control center; 19% are opposed to that and prefer to maintain the current status quo.
• Now that it has taken control of the border crossings and the headquarters of the ministries and other public agencies, 38% are satisfied and 55% are dissatisfied with the performance of the reconciliation government.
• 50% are optimistic and 45% are pessimistic about the success of reconciliation. Three months ago, optimism stood at 31% and pessimism at 61%.
• Despite the rise in optimism, only 43% expect the reconciliation government to take real control of the security conditions in the Gaza Strip; 47% do not expect that to happen.
• 78% support the formation of a national unity government composed of Fatah, Hamas, and other faction while only 17% prefer to keep the current reconciliation government.
• If a national unity government is established, the public is divided over its peace program: 43% want it to adhere to Abbas policy but 49% does not want to do so.
•  Responding to Abbas’ call for “one government, one gun,” only 22% support disbanding the armed wings of the various Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip and 72% want these armed groups to remain in place.
• Only 43% believe that the date set for elections in the latest factional meeting in Cairo is appropriate while 33% think it is late and 16% think it is too early.
• 70% support holding legislative and presidential elections but only after resolving all remaining issues such as control over security, PLO, and the armed factions; 26% support holding elections immediately, without resolving these other issues.
• The largest percentage (45%) believes that the reason behind Abbas’ decision not to remove the sanctions he had imposed on the Gaza Strip is to pressure Hamas to make more concessions that would remove the obstacles to reconciliation. On the other hand, 23% believe that he has not removed the sanctions in order to insure a slow process of reconciliation and 22% think he seeks to bring about the collapse of the process of reconciliation.
• 51% support and 38% oppose the resignation of the reconciliation government led by Rami al Hamdallah if it does not immediately remove the Abbas-imposed sanctions on the Gaza Strip.
• 45% of the public believe the latest factional meeting in Cairo has been neither a success nor a failure while 19% view it as a success and 27% as a failure.
• For the next three months, the top priority of the reconciliation government in the eyes of 42% of the public should be the delivery of electricity and water to Gazans on daily basis while 30% believe it should be the opening of the crossings, 10% think it should be the resolution of the problem of the payment to the employees of the former Hamas government, 9% believe it should be the holding of elections, 6% the imposition of control over security matters in the Gaza Strip, and 2% the convening of the existing Palestinian Legislative Council.
• For the next year, the top priority of the reconciliation government in the eyes of 41% of the public should be the opening of the crossings; delivery of electricity and water to Gazans on daily basis (31%), while 11% think it should be the holding of elections, 7% think it should be the resolution of the problem of the payment to the employees of the former Hamas government, 7% believe it should be the imposition of control over security matters in the Gaza Strip, and 3% the convening of the existing Palestinian Legislative Council.
• 51% believe that the reconciliation effort is not linked to the restoration of negotiations and the peace process while 43% think that it is indeed linked.
• 24% think Fatah and Abbas came out of reconciliation winners and 20% think Hamas came out a winner. But 48% believe that Fatah and Hamas have come out neither winners no losers. 
• With regard to regional players, the largest percentage (51%) believes that Egypt came out of reconciliation a winner while only 34% described Saudi Arabia as a winner (and 25% as a loser), 33% said Qatar came out a winner (and 26% as a loser), and 27% said Iran came out a winner (and 26% as a loser). Although 33% characterized Israel as a winner, 46% characterized it as a loser.

(4) The peace process:  

• 91% characterize Trumps declaration recognizing Jerusalem as a capital of Israel as a threat to Palestinian interests (79% as a great threat and 12% as a limited threat) while only 7% saw no threat in the declaration.
• The largest percentage (45%) believes that the most appropriate Palestinian measure against the US step is to stop all contacts with the American Administration, submit a formal complaint to the International Criminal Court (ICC), and resort to an armed intifada. But 27% think it should stop the contacts and submit a complaint to the ICC, but should resort to non-violent resistance. Still, 12% want the PA to only denounce the US step and stop the contacts with the US Administration and an identical percentage wants it to denounce the step while maintaining contacts with the US toward reaching a permanent peace.
• On the other hand, only 27% of the public believe that the Palestinian leadership will actually stop contacts with the US, submit an ICC complaint, and resort to an armed intifada while 24% believe the PA will denounce the US step but will maintain contacts with the Trump Administration.
• The largest percentage (44%) believes that armed resistance is the most effective means of establishing a Palestinian state next to the state of Israel while 27% think negotiation is the most effective means and 23% think non-violent resistance is the most effective. Three months ago, only 35% indicated that armed resistance is the answer and 33% sided with negotiation.
• An overwhelming majority of 72% believes that the Trump Administration will not submit any ideas or plans for Palestinian-Israeli peace while 24% think it will do so.
• But even if the US does submit a peace proposal, an even larger majority of 86% believes that such a proposal will not meet Palestinian need to end occupation and build a state; only 11% think the proposal will indeed meet such needs.
• Nonetheless, 49% believe that president Abbas might accept the American peace plan if one is indeed submitted to him while 42% believe he will not accept it.
• On the other hand, 65% think the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will accept such American peace plan; only 26% think he will not accept it.
• Moreover, 72% of the public believe that major Arab countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia (or at least one of them) will accept this American plan if submitted; only 20% think they will not accept it.
•  Regarding public trust in the roles and positions of major Arab countries in the peace process and the US efforts to develop a regional agreement in the context of Palestinian-Israeli peace, an overwhelming majority of 82% says that it does not trust the Saudi role, 75% do not trust the Emirati role, 70% do not trust the Egyptian role, and 59% do not trust the Jordanian or the Qatari roles.  
• Moreover, 76% say the Arab World is too preoccupied with its own concerns, internal conflicts, and the conflict with Iran and that Palestine is no longer the Arab’s principal or primary issue or cause. Only 23% think Palestine remains the Arab’s principle cause.
• In fact, 71% believe that there is already an Arab Sunni alliance with Israel against Iran despite the continued Israeli occupation of Arab land while 21% believe that the Arabs would not ally themselves with Israel until it ends its occupation and allows the creation of a Palestinian state. Three months ago, only 64% said that an Arab Sunni alliance already exists with Israel.

(5) Most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems confronting Palestinians today:

• 48% believe that the first most vital Palestinian goal should be to end Israeli occupation in the areas occupied in 1967 and build a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital. By contrast, 28% believe the first most vital goal should be to obtain the right of return of refugees to their 1948 towns and villages, 14% believe that it should be to build a pious or moral individual and a religious society, one that applies all Islamic teachings, and 9% believe that the first and most vital goal should be to establish a democratic political system that respects freedoms and rights of Palestinians.
• The most serious problem confronting Palestinian society today in the eyes of 29% of the public is the continuation of occupation and settlement activities while 26% say it is poverty and unemployment; 20% say it is the spread of corruption in public institutions; 17% say it is the siege of the Gaza Strip and the closure of its crossings; and 4% say it is the absence of national unity.

Joint Israeli Palestinian Poll, June 2013

Despite the launching of the efforts of US Secretary of State John Kerry to renew the peace process and the modification introduced to the Arab Peace Initiative (API) accepting minor territorial swaps, both sides display pessimism regarding the peace process and Israeli support for the API drops

These are the results of the most recent poll conducted jointly by the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah. This joint survey was conducted with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ramallah and Jerusalem.

• Israelis and Palestinians continue to display pessimism regarding the peace process despite efforts by US Secretary of State John Kerry to renew the peace process and despite modification introduced to the Arab Peace Initiative: Only 27% of the Palestinians and 10% of the Israelis think that the two sides will return to negotiations and violence will stop while 34% of the Israelis and 31% of the Palestinians believe that negotiations will resume but some armed attacks will continue as well. On the other hand, 44% of the Israelis and 15% of the Palestinians think that the two sides will not return to negotiations and armed attacks will not stop and 21% of the Palestinians believe that the two sides will not return to negotiations but that violence will not resume.
• Furthermore, findings indicate that each side perceives the other side as constituting a threat to its very existence: 57% of Palestinians think that Israel’s goals in the long run are to extend its borders to cover all the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea and expel its Arab citizens, and 25% think the goals are to annex the West Bank while denying political rights to the Palestinians. 37% of the Israelis think that the Palestinian aspirations in the long run are to conquer the State of Israel and destroy much of the Jewish population in Israel; 17% think the goals of the Palestinians are to conquer the State of Israel.

The Palestinian sample size was 1270 adults interviewed face-to-face in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip in 127 randomly selected locations between June 13 and 16, 2013. The margin of error is 3%. The Israeli sample includes 601 adult Israelis interviewed by phone in Hebrew, Arabic or Russian between June 14 and 21, 2013. The margin of error is 4.5%. The poll was planned and supervised by Prof. Ifat Maoz, the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace, the Department of Communication and Journalism and Director of the Swiss Center for Conflict Research at the Hebrew University, and Prof. Khalil Shikaki, Director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR).

For further details on the Palestinian survey contact PSR director, Prof. Khalil Shikaki or Walid Ladadweh, at tel. 02-2964933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org. On the Israeli survey,
contact Prof Ifat Maoz at email msifat@mscc.huji.ac.il.

MAIN FINDINGS

 (A) Attitudes and expectations regarding the peace process

• The majority of Israelis (68%) and Palestinians (69%) view the chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state next to Israel in the next five years as low or non-existent. A majority of Israelis (62%) supports a two-state solution while 33% oppose it. Among the Palestinians, 53% support and 46% oppose the two-state solution. 51% of Israelis think that the two-state solution is bound to fail because of settlements.  58% of Palestinians think that the two-state solution is no longer viable. At the same time, a majority of Israelis (63%) and Palestinians (69%) oppose the one state solution in which Arabs and Jews enjoy equality; while32% of Israelis and 30% of Palestinians support this solution.
•  56% of the Palestinians support the Saudi peace plan and 41% oppose it, while 24% of the Israelis support and 67% oppose it. A year ago, in June 2012, 51% of the Palestinians supported the Saudi plan and 45% opposed it, while 36% of the Israelis supported and 59% opposed it. In other words, the Arab modification of the plan, by accepting territorial swap, did not positively change the views of the Israelis. On the other hand, the Arab modification did not negatively affect Palestinian support for the initiative. The plan calls for Arab recognition of and normalization of relations with Israel after it ends its occupation of Arab territories occupied in 1967 and after the establishment of a Palestinian state. The plan calls for Israeli retreat from all territories occupied in 1967 including Gaza, the West Bank, Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, and the establishment of a Palestinian state. The refugee problem will be resolved through negotiations in a just and agreed upon manner and in accordance with UN resolution 194.  In return, all Arab states will recognize Israel and its right to secure borders, will sign peace treaties with Israel and establish normal diplomatic relations.
• As we do periodically in our joint polls, we asked Israelis and Palestinians about their readiness for a mutual recognition of national identity as part of a permanent status agreement and after all issues in the conflict are resolved and a Palestinian State is established. Our current poll shows that 57% of the Israeli public supports such a mutual recognition and 37% opposes it. Among Palestinians, 42% support and 56% oppose this step. In June 2012, 53% of the Israelis supported and 43% opposed this mutual recognition; among Palestinians, the corresponding figures were similar to the current poll (43% support and 55% oppose).

 (B) Conflict management and threat perceptions 

•  Given the launching of the efforts of US Secretary of State John Kerry to renew the peace process and the modification introduced to the Arab Peace Initiative accepting minor territorial swaps, 27% of the Palestinians and 10% of the Israelis think that the two sides will return to negotiations and violence will stop while 34% of the Israelis and 31% of the Palestinians believe that negotiations will resume but some armed attacks will continue as well. On the other hand, 44% of the Israelis and 15% of the Palestinians think that the two sides will not return to negotiations and armed attacks will not stop and 21% of the Palestinians believe that the two sides will not return to negotiations but that violence will not resume.
• Among Israelis, 50% are worried and 49% are not worried that they or their family may be harmed by Arabs in their daily life, this is similar to our June 2012 findings. Among Palestinians, 74% are worried that they or a member of their family could be hurt by Israel in their daily life or that their land would be confiscated or home demolished. In June 2012, perception of worry among Palestinians was identical.
• The level of perceived threat on both sides regarding the aspirations of the other side in the long run is very high. 57% of Palestinians think that Israel’s goals are to extend its borders to cover all the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea and expel its Arab citizens, and 25% think the goals are to annex the West Bank while denying political rights to the Palestinians. The modal category among Israelis is that the Palestinian aspirations in the long run are to conquer the State of Israel and destroy much of the Jewish population in Israel (37%); 17% think the goals of the Palestinians are to conquer the State of Israel. Only 17% of the Palestinians think Israel’s aspirations in the long run are to withdraw from part or all of the territories occupied in 1967; and 36% of Israelis think the aspirations of the Palestinians are to regain some or all of the territories conquered in 1967.

Pessimism among Israelis and Palestinians regarding the prospects for a settlement and a Palestinian state in the next few years, but majorities on both sides support a two-state solution.  

Following Obama’s Cairo speech, Israelis’ pessimism decreased somewhat and support for the two-state solution increased slightly  

These are the results of the most recent poll conducted jointly by the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah, between May 21-June 3, 2009. This joint survey was conducted with the support of the Ford Foundation Cairo office and the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ramallah and Jerusalem. The poll was conducted before Obama’s Cairo speech on June 4. Following the speech, another survey was conducted (June 7-8) which repeated some of the first survey questions on a representative sample of the Israeli public to assess the speech’s impact. We did not conduct a similar poll among Palestinians after the Obama speech.  

• 67% of the Palestinians and 62% of the Israelis believe that it is impossible to reach these days a final status agreement. Only 30% and 35% respectively believe it is possible. In the same vein, 69% of the Palestinians and 61% among Israelis think that chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian State next to the State of Israel in the next five years are non-existent or low; 28% of the Palestinians and 32% of the Israelis believe the chances are medium or high. Nonetheless, a majority of Israelis (59%) and Palestinians (61%) support a two-state solution. 36% of Israelis oppose it; 23% of the Palestinians support a one-state solution.
• Following Obama’s Cairo speech, Israelis’ support for a two-state solution increased slightly from 59% to 63%. Obama’s speech had greater impact on Israelis’ expectations as to the chances for a final status settlement with the Palestinians and for the establishment of a Palestinian state: Assessment that the chances for a Palestinian state are medium or high increased by 10 percentage points after the speech, and beliefs that it is possible to reach a final status settlement increased by 6 percentage points.
• Among other findings of the joint Truman PSR poll: 43% of the Palestinians feel that nuclearization of Iran holds positive consequences for the Arab region; 33% see it negatively.   52% of the Israelis support the bombing of the Iranian nuclear facilities if the international efforts to prevent it from obtaining a nuclear device fail.
• The poll also reveals that 52% of the Israelis and 50% of the Palestinians would support a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and of Palestine as the  state of the Palestinian people after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the settlement of all issues in dispute. While a majority of the publics still supports this mutual recognition of identity, the current figures indicate a decrease in support among both publics compared to past surveys.  

 The Palestinian sample size was 1270 adults interviewed face-to-face in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip in 127 randomly selected locations between May 21-23, 2009. The margin of error is 3%. The Israeli sample includes 606 adult Israelis interviewed by phone in Hebrew Arabic or Russian between May 24 and June 3, 2009. The margin of error is 4.5%. The poll was planned and supervised by Prof. Yaacov Shamir, the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace and the Department of Communication and Journalism at the Hebrew University, and Prof. Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR).  

For further details on the Palestinian survey contact PSR director, Prof. Khalil Shikaki or Walid Ladadweh, at tel. 02-2964933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org. On the Israeli survey, contact Dr. Yaacov Shamir at tel. 03-6419429 or email jshamir@mscc.huji.ac.il. 

MAIN FINDINGS  

(A) Negotiation Tracks on the Agenda

The Israeli-Palestinian track

• 50% of the Israelis support and 48% oppose talks with Hamas if needed to reach a compromise agreement with the Palestinians. The same figures were obtained in our March 2009 poll. A sizeable Israeli majority (62%) support and only 31% oppose talks with a national unity government composed jointly of Hamas and Fatah if such a government is reestablished. In March 2009 these figures were 69% and 27% respectively.
• 78% of the Palestinians and 51% among Israelis prefer a comprehensive settlement over an interim one where a Palestinian state is established in the West Bank and Gaza while other issues such as refugees would be postponed. Only 18% of the Palestinians and 33% of the Israelis prefer the interim option.
• 68% of the Israeli public don’t believe that the new Israeli government will succeed to lead Israel to a final status settlement with the Palestinians, while 25% believe it will succeed. Similarly, among the Palestinians, 70% do not believe it is possible to reach such a settlement with the new Netanyahu government; 27% think it is possible.
• More generally, 67% of the Palestinians and 62% of the Israelis believe that it is impossible to reach these days a final status agreement; 30% and 35% respectively believe it is possible.
• 69% of the Palestinians and 61% among Israelis think that chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian State next to the State of Israel in the next five years are non-existent or low; 28% of the Palestinians and 32% of the Israelis believe the chances are medium or high.
• Nevertheless, 59% of the Israelis support and 36% oppose a two-state solution. Among Palestinians, 61% support the two-state solution while 23% support a one-state solution and 9% support other solutions. The two-state solution was presented to the Palestinians as one “based on the establishment of a Palestinian state along side Israel” while the one-state solution was presented as “one in which Israel is unified with the West Bank and the Gaza Strip to establish one state whereby Palestinian Arabs and Israeli Jews would be equal.”
• Moreover, 52% of the Israelis and 50% of the Palestinians agree that after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the settlement of all issues in dispute, including the refugees and Jerusalem issues, there will be a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people. 41% and 49% respectively oppose such a proposal. While a majority of the publics still supports this mutual recognition of identity, the current figures indicate a decrease in support among both publics compared to past surveys. Among Palestinians, support peaked at 66% in early 2006, and has since been declining steadily. Among Israelis, support has drastically declined following the 2009 elections.
• Following Netanyahu’s refusal to accept the two-state solution and Abbas’s condition for resumption of negotiations that Israel accepts this solution and freezes settlements, 46% of the Israelis and 44% of the Palestinians expect that negotiations will resume but some armed attacks will continue. 40% of the Israelis and 36% of the Palestinians think that armed confrontations will not stop and the two sides will not return to negotiations. 6% of the Israelis and 16% of the Palestinians think that negotiations will resume soon enough and armed confrontations will stop.

The Arab League (Saudi) Plan

• 56% of the Israelis oppose and 36% support the Saudi initiative which calls for Arab recognition of and normalization of relations with Israel after it ends its occupation of Arab territories occupied in 1967 and after the establishment of a Palestinian state. The plan calls for Israeli retreat from all territories occupied in 1967 including Gaza the West Bank, Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, and the establishment of a Palestinian state. The refugees problem will be resolved through negotiation in a just and agreed upon manner and in accordance with UN resolution 194. In return, all Arab states will recognize Israel and its right to secure borders, will sign peace treaties with her and establish normal diplomatic relation. In our March 2009 poll 63% of the Israelis opposed the plan while 33% supported it. Among Palestinians, 57% support the plan and 40% oppose it; in March 2009, 58% supported the plan and 39% opposed it.

Israeli-Syrian  Track

• 62% of Israelis oppose full evacuation of the Golan Heights in return for a complete peace agreement with Syria, and 26% support it. If in the peace agreement, Syria will commit to disconnect itself from Iran and stop its support of Hizbulla and Hamas, support increases to 34%
• 69% of the Israeli public do not believe that the new Israeli government will succeed to lead Israel to a peace agreement with Syria, while 22% believe it will succeed.

 (B) Conflict Management, Support for Violence, Threat and Conflict Toll Perceptions

• Among Israelis, 27% suggest that Israel should reoccupy the Gaza Strip and stay there if the shelling of Israeli communities from the Gaza Strip continues; 42% think that Israel should carry out ad-hoc operations against the shelling and get out; 24% believe that Israel should use primarily diplomatic rather than military steps. Among Palestinians, 51% support and 46% oppose launching of rockets from the Gaza Strip against Israeli towns and cities like Sderot and Ashkelon.
• 58% of the Israelis believe that Israel can overthrow the Hamas regime in Gaza; 36% believe that it cannot.
• Among Israelis, 61% are worried that they or their family may be harmed by Arabs in their daily life. Among Palestinians 45% fear that their security and safety and that of their family are not assured.
• 52% of the Israeli public believe that Israel should bomb the Iranian nuclear reactor if the efforts of the international community to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons fail; 35% oppose it. Among Palestinians, 43% feel that nuclearization of Iran holds positive consequences for the Arab region; 33% see it negatively.  
• 69% of the Israelis think that the price the Israeli-Palestinian conflict imposed on the Israeli society is high or unbearable; 28% think that it is mid-range or low. However, 60% think the Israeli society can bear this price for decades or forever; 14% think it can bear it another 10 years, and 13% believe that the Israeli society will be able to bear this price another year or two.
• Only 23% of the Israelis feel that Israel’s condition these days is good or very good; 40% say it is so-so; 35% see it as bad or very bad. 
• Among Palestinians, only 10% describe the conditions of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip as good or very good, 13% say so-so, and 74% say bad or very bad. As to the conditions in the West Bank these days, 31% describe the conditions of the Palestinians in the West Bank as good or very good, 27% say so-so, and 38% say bad or very bad.

(C) The Impact of Obama’s Cairo Speech on the Israeli Public

Following Obama’s Cairo speech on June 4^th we carried out a second survey which repeated some of the first survey questions on a representative sample of the Israeli public (N=528) to assess the speech’s impact. The interviews took place 3 days after the speech (June 7-8).

• Before the speech, 50% of the Israelis thought that Israel should accept American pressure if the US under the leadership of Obama pressures Israel to accept the two states for two people solution; 42% thought it should reject such pressure. After the speech, willingness to accept such US pressure increased to 52%, and rejection of it decreased by 4 percentage points to 38%. A similar increase of 4 percentage points is observed in Israelis’ support for the two-state solution (59% support before the speech and 63% thereafter).
• As to the Saudi plan, before Obama’s speech, 34% of the Israelis thought that Israel should accept American pressure on this issue, and 53% thought it should reject it. After the speech, there was almost no change, and the figures were 33% and 54% respectively. This stability is consistent with Israeli majority opposition to the Saudi plan, which remained steadfast as well following Obama’s speech.
• Before Obama’s speech, 35% of the Israelis thought that Israel should accept American pressure if the US pressures Israel to join the nuclear non proliferation treaty; 52% thought Israel should reject it. (This question was not asked in the second survey).

Greater differences before and after Obama’s speech were observed in expectations of Israelis with regard to the evolution of the conflict:

• Expectations with regard to the establishment of a Palestinian state in the next five years increased. 42% thought the chances for it are medium or high after the speech, compared to 32% before.
• Similarly, Israeli beliefs that it is possible to reach these days a final status settlement with the Palestinians increased from 35% before the speech to 41% after it.
• Finally, Israeli beliefs in the success of international mediation of the conflict increased following the speech from 49% to 52%, and the percentage disbelieving in such mediation declined from 48% to 42%.
•  

21-23 May 2009   

 These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 21 and 23 May 2009. The poll was conducted in the aftermath of the failure of the latest round of Palestinian reconciliation talks in Cairo and the formation of a new government headed by Salam Fayyad and after the meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with US president Barak Obama in Washington DC. The poll examines the following topics: domestic issues such as the balance of power, the performance and legitimacy of two governments, that of Ismail Haniyeh and Salam Fayyad, confidence in the police, the effects of the continued conflict between Fateh and Hamas, as well as the various issues of the peace process such as the support for the two-state vs. the one-state solutions. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%. This press release covers domestic Palestinian issues; issues related to the peace process and Israeli-Palestinian relations will be covered in a separate joint Palestinian-Israeli press release. For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

Main Findings:

Findings of the second quarter of 2009 show a stable balance of power between Fateh and Hamas compared to the situation in the first quarter. Abbas’s popularity increases slightly in comparison to that of Haniyeh. Findings also show that most Palestinians have no confidence in the ability of Fateh and Hamas to reach a reconciliation agreement. In this regard, the public tend to support Hamas’s position on what kind of electoral system should be adopted but the majority supports Fateh’s position on the government platform issue. Findings show a split regarding the new Fayyad government with a larger percentage opposing its formation. Findings show that public evaluation of the performance of various actors during the Gaza war clearly favors Hams and those who support it, like Iran and Syria, while Fateh, Abbas, Fayyad’s government, and Egypt receive lower positive evaluation ratings.

With regard to the peace process, findings indicate a continued state of widespread pessimism regarding the chances for establishing a Palestinian state in the next five years and regarding the chances for a permanent peace agreement with the Netanyahu government. But despite this pessimism, a majority still supports the two-state solution while less than a quarter supports the one-state solution. Pessimism however is reflected sharply in two major issues. Support for launching rockets from the Gaza Strip against Israeli communities across the border increases considerably among the pessimists and decreases among the optimists.  Similarly, a larger percentage among the pessimists tends to view positively an Iranian attainment of nuclear weapons while the opposite is true among the optimists.

(1) Domestic Palestinian Conditions

• 42% support the formation of the new Salam Fayyad government and 48% oppose it
• 55% are worried that they or members of their families might be harmed by other Palestinians and 44% are not worried
• 46% support a mixed electoral system as proposed by Hamas and 39% support a fully proportional system as proposed by Fateh; but 50% support Fateh’s position that the program of national unity government must accept all previous agreement signed between Israel and the PLO while 44% support Hamas’s position which rejects this condition
• If new presidential elections are held today, Abbas would receive 49% of the vote and Haniyeh 44%, and if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Haniyeh, the former would receive 64% and the latter 32%
• Fateh receives the support of 41% of potential voters, Hamas 33%, all other electoral lists 9%, and 18% remain undecided; public estimates of the likely outcome of elections are similar with 39% saying Fateh would win and 28% saying Hamas would win
• 41% believe that the performance of Haniyeh’s government is good or very good and 32% say the performance of Fayyad’s government is good or very good
• 33% believe that Fateh’s Sixth Congress will be held in July as announced while 42% say it will be postponed and 14% say it will never be held
• 13% say they have been have been attacked or robbed by other Palestinians during the past year, and among those 43% say they have submitted a complaint while 56% say they have not

Findings indicate that the pubic is divided with regard to the formation of the new Fayyad government with a larger percentage (48%) opposing its formation and 42% supporting it. Opposition increases slightly in the Gaza Strip (51%) compared to the West Bank (46%), in cities (53%) compared to refugee camps (49%) and villages and towns (43%), among men (52%) compared to women (44%), among holders of BA degree (56%) compared to illiterates (30%), among those working in the private sector (55%) compared to those working in the public sector (42%), among those opposed to the peace process (77%) compared to those who support the peace process (36%), and among Hamas supporters (78%) compared to Fateh supporters (17%).

Findings also indicate that the conflict between Fateh and Hamas is causing anxiety among the majority with 55% saying that they are worried that they or members of their family might be harmed by other Palestinians from Fateh or Hamas and 44% saying they are not worried. The level of worry increases in the Gaza Strip, reaching 65% compared to50% in the West Bank.  In the Gaza Strip, worry among supporters of Fateh reaches 74% compared to 48% among supporters of Hamas. In the West Bank, worry among supporters of Hamas reaches 56% compared to 48% among supporters of Fateh.  Findings also indicate that the overwhelming majority (90%) believes that the price of Fateh-Hamas conflict is high or unbearable while only 10% say it is medium or bearable. Moreover, 60% believe that Palestinian society can endure the price of division between Fateh and Hamas for less than a year or for few years while 8% say it can endure it for a period between 5-10 years, and 23% say it can endure it forever.  Only 25% believe that Fateh’s goal is to integrate Hamas into the political system while avoiding international siege and boycott while 32% say its goal is destroy Hamas’s political, military, financial and social power; 21% say the goal of Fateh is to insure Hamas’s participation in some public institutions as long as it does not pose a threat to Fateh’s dominance, and 16% say its goal is to keep Hamas outside the Palestinian political system. With regard to Hamas’s goal, 38% say it is to integrate itself into the political system on the basis of equality with Fateh and other factions and 29% say the goal is destroy Fateh’s political, military, financial, and social power; 12% say the goal of Hamas is to control the Palestinian political system and marginalize Fateh and other forces, and anther 12% say the goal is to control the Palestinian political system and eliminate Fateh politically.

Findings also indicate the 60% believe that neither Fateh nor Hamas are able to unilaterally settle the conflict in its favor by military or political means and therefore they need dialogue while 22% say that the conflict between the two factions can not be settled unilaterally or even through dialogue. But the largest percentage (56%) believes that dialogue between Fateh and Hamas will fail and only 40% believe it will succeed. In light of this, 27% believe that unity between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip will never resume while only 19% believe it will resume soon. A majority of 51% believes that unity will resume but only after a long time. In our September 2007 poll, only 20% believed that separation between the two Palestinian territories will become permanent and 29% believed unity will be resumed within months.

With regard to the debate between Fateh and Hamas on the terms of reconciliation, 46% tend to support Hamas’s position on the electoral system, preferring a mixed one as proposed by Hamas while 39% tend to support Fateh’s position, preferring a fully proportional representation system as proposed by Fateh. By contrast, 50% support Fateh’s position which insists that the program of national unity government must accept all previous agreement signed between Israel and the PLO while 44% tend to support Hamas’s position which rejects this condition.

Findings show that Abbas’s popularity improves slightly. If new presidential elections were held today and the two candidates were Mahmud Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh, the former receives 49% of the vote and the latter 44%. In the Gaza Strip Abbas wins with 53% of the vote compared to 42% for Haniyeh. Three months ago, Abbas received 45% and Haniyeh 47%. It is worth noting that immediately after Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip in mid 2007, 59% said they would vote for Abbas and only 36% said they would vote for Haniyeh.  But if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Haniyeh, the former wins the presidency with 64% of the vote compared to 32% for Haniyeh. These results are similar to those we obtained three months ago and those obtained in September 2007 after the Hamas violent takeover of the Gaza Strip.  

42% say that Abbas is the legitimate president today and 43% say they are satisfied with his performance while 54% say they are dissatisfied. 41% describe the performance of Haniyeh’s government as good or very good while 32% describe the performance of Fayyad’s government as good or very good. However, only 10% describe conditions of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip as good or very good while 31% describe conditions in the West Bank as good or very good.

If legislative elections were to take place today with the participation of all the lists that participated in the last elections, 33% say they would vote for the Reform and Change list of Hamas while 41% say they would vote for Fateh. All other lists would receive 9% while 18% remain undecided. Vote for Fateh and Hamas is identical with that registered three months ago. In the Gaza Strip, Hamas’s popularity stands at 35% compared to 46% for Fateh. In the West Bank, Hamas stands at 31% compared to 37% for Fateh. With regard to public expectations of election results, 39% say Fateh will win and 28% say Hamas will win. 

With regard to the performance of various actors during the Gaza war, Hamas receives the highest positive rating (51%) followed by Haniyeh’s government (46%), Iran (41%), Syria (34%), Fateh (34%), president Abbas (25%), Fayyad’s government (23%), and finally Egypt (22%).

13% of the public say they have been victims of attacks or robbery by other Palestinians during the past year. Among those, 43% say they have submitted a complaint to the police and security services and 56% say they did not. 35% of those who did not submit a complaint say the reason they did not submit one is that they do not trust the police while 44% say the police can not do any thing to help them. 26% of those who did submit a complaint say they were satisfied with the police work in the investigation to uncover the circumstances of the crime while 73% say they were not satisfied. The percentage of those who have been attacked or victimized during the past year is higher in the Gaza Strip (17%) than the West Bank (10%) but the percentage of those who submitted complaints is higher in the West Bank (50%) than in the Gaza Strip (36%). Nonetheless, the level of distrust in the police among those who did not submit a complaint is higher in the West Bank (41%) than in the Gaza Strip (30%). The levels of satisfaction with the performance of the police among those who submitted a complaint are similar in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

Only 33% of the public believe that Fateh’s Sixth party congress will be held in July as announced, 42% say it will be postponed, and 14% say it will never be held. With regard to the venue, 34% prefer holding the congress in the Palestinian territories while only 21% prefer holding it outside. 36% prefer holding it inside and outside through a video link. If during the congress Fateh selected its head, 34% would prefer the election of Marwan Barghouti and 16% would prefer electing Mahmud Abbas. On their expectations regarding who will lead Fateh in the future, the public is evenly divided with 46% believing the leaders will come from the young guard and 45% believing they will come from the old guard.

(2) Peace Process   

• 67% believe that it is not possible these days to reach a permanent peace agreement with Israel and 30% believe it is possible

• 69% believe that the chances for establishing an independent Palestinian state next to the state of Israel in the next five years are slim to non-existent and 28% believe it medium or high

• 61% support the two-state solution, 23% support the one-state solution, and 9% support other solutions

• 78% prefer a comprehensive peace settlement rather than an interim one and 18% prefer an interim settlement

• 50% accept a mutual recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for Palestinian people after all issues of the conflict have been resolved

• 57% support the Arab (or Saudi) Peace Initiative and 40% oppose it

• 51% support and 46% oppose launching rockets from the Gaza Strip against Israeli communities across the border inside Israel

• 43% believe that an Iranian acquirement of nuclear arms would have a positive impact on the Arab region and 33% believe it would have a negative impact

Findings indicate a continued slide toward pessimism among Palestinians regarding the chances for peace. A majority of 70% believes that it is impossible to reach a permanent peace agreement with the new Netanyahu government while only 27% believe it is possible. Similarly, 69% believe that the chances for establishing an independent Palestinian state within the next five years are slim to non existent and 28% believe the chances are medium or high. In general, two thirds say that it is impossible these days to reach a permanent peace while only 30% think it is possible.

Findings also show that one third of the Palestinians believe that reaching an agreement on a two-state solution is more difficult than reaching an agreement on a one-state solution while a slightly larger percentage (35%) believes that reaching an agreement on a one-state solution is more difficult and 29% say the two solutions pose similar difficulties. A majority of 61% says that regardless of which negotiation is more difficult, it prefers the two-state solution while only 23% say they support the one state solution. When asking respondents about their preferences, the two state solution was presented as one based on the establishment of a Palestinian state along side Israel and the one-state solution was presented as one in which Israel is unified with the West Bank and the Gaza Strip to establish one state whereby Palestinian Arabs and Israeli Jews would be equal. Support for the one-state solution is equal in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. But it increases slightly among residents of refugee camps (28%) compared to residents of cities (23%), among men (26%) compared to women (21), among holders of BA degree (27%) compared to illiterates (18%), among supporters of Hamas (27%) compared to supporters of Fateh (20%) and among supporters of the peace process (28%) compared to those opposed to the peace process (22%).

The overwhelming majority of Palestinians (78%) supports a comprehensive peace settlement, one that lead to permanent peace and end of conflict and resolution of all issues while 18% prefer an interim settlement, one in which a Palestinian state is established in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip while postponing issues such as refugees. Within the context of a comprehensive settlement and after the establishment of a Palestinian state and the resolution of all issues, 50% say they would accept and 49% say they would reject a mutual recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people. These results indicate a decline in the support for this mutual recognition of identity. The highest level of support (66%) was recorded in March 2006, in out poll #19, but has since declined.

Findings also show that 57% support and 40% oppose the Arab (or Saudi) peace initiative.  The initiative, as presented to the respondents, calls for an Arab recognition of Israel and the signing of peace agreement and normalization of relations with it after it ends its occupation of Arab lands occupied in 1967 and after the establishment of a Palestinian state and the resolution of the refugee problem in a just and agreed upon settlement based on UN resolution 194.

Despite the support for the two-state solution, the Saudi initiative, and the mutual recognition of identity, a majority of 51% supports and 46% oppose the launching of rockets from the Gaza Strip against Israeli communities inside Israel. Pessimism regarding the future of peace or changing conditions of boycott and closure imposed on the Gaza Strip seems to influence attitudes regarding violence. For example, support for the launching of rockets reaches 59% among those who believe that the chances for establishing a Palestinian state in the next 5 years are non existent; but it drops considerably to 38% among those believe the chances are high.

Similarly, 43% believe that an Iranian attainment of nuclear capacity would have a positive impact on the region while 33% believe it will have a negative impact. As in the previous example, a larger percentage of pessimists, reaching 52%, believes that a nuclearized Iran would have a positive impact while only 30% of the optimists regarding the chances for a Palestinian state during the next five years tend to view a nuclear Iran positively..... Full Report

Joint Israeli Palestinian Poll, September 2008

Sweeping majority of Israelis support release of Marwan Barghouti in return for Gilad Shalit; three-fourths of Palestinians back soldier kidnappings in exchange for Palestinian prisoners 

Among other findings of joint Truman-PSR poll: both publics

support continuation of cease-fire agreement with Hamas 

Seventy-eight percent of Israelis support and 16 percent oppose the release of Marwan Barghouti from an Israeli prison in return for the release of Gilad Shalit. However only 45 percent support and 50 percent oppose Barghouti’s release if needed in order to negotiate with him a compromise agreement with the Palestinians. 

Most Palestinians (59 percent) think that the best way to free prisoners from Israeli jails is to reach a peace agreement that includes freeing all prisoners; 39 percent think that the best way is to kidnap soldiers and exchange them. However, when the question is asked within the context of the kidnapping of Gilad Shalit, support for kidnapping of soldiers to exchange them with Palestinian prisoners is 74 percent, and only 21 percent oppose such kidnapping.

These are the results of the most recent poll conducted jointly by the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah, between Aug. 25 and Sept. 1, 2008. This joint survey was conducted with the support of the Ford Foundation Cairo office and the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ramallah and Jerusalem.    

With regard to the cease-fire with Hamas, after it has now gone into effect, 55 percent of the Israelis support its continuation and 39 percent oppose it. Sixty-eight percent of the Israelis opposed the cease-fire agreement in the June Truman-PSR poll before it went into effect. Among Palestinians, 78 percent supported it in June and 21 percent opposed it. In the current poll 81 percent support its continuation and 15 percent oppose it.  

The joint poll also examined Israelis’ and Palestinians’ assessments of various negotiation tracks, including the Israeli-Palestinian track, the Israeli-Syrian track and the Saudi (Arab League) plan currently on the public agenda; attitudes toward reconciliation; threat perceptions and support of violence; and domestic political affairs.  

The Palestinian sample size was 1270 adults interviewed face-to-face in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip in 127 randomly selected locations between Aug. 28 and Aug. 30, 2008. The margin of error is 3 percent. The Israeli sample includes 611 adult Israelis interviewed by phone in Hebrew, Arabic or Russian between Aug. 25 and Sept. 1, 2008. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. The poll was planned and supervised by Dr. Yaacov Shamir of the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace and the Department of Communication and Journalism at the Hebrew University, and Dr. Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR). 

For further details on the Palestinian survey contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki or Walid Ladadweh, at tel. 02-2964933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org. On the Israeli survey, contact Dr. Yaacov Shamir at tel. 03-6419429 or email jshamir@mscc.huji.ac.il. 

MAIN FINDINGS

 (A) Negotiation Tracks on the Agenda

• 79% of the Israelis believe that the best solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is the two-state solution, i.e. the establishment of an independent state for the Palestinians in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and the state of Israel for the Israelis. Only 11% believe that the best solution is the establishment of one state (for Palestinians and Israelis) in all the territories west to the Jordan river. In our June poll, 58% of the Palestinians preferred the two-state solution, and 27% the one state solution.
• 71% of the Israelis support and 25% oppose mutual recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people as part of a permanent status agreement. Among Palestinians, 57% support and 41% oppose this step.
• 59% of the Israelis oppose and 38% support the Saudi initiative which calls for Arab recognition of and normalization of relations with Israel after it ends its occupation of Arab territories occupied in 1967 and after the establishment of a Palestinian state. These figures did not change from our June poll. Among Palestinians, 68% support the plan and 30% oppose it
• 78% of the Israelis support and 16% oppose the release of Marwan Barghouti from prison in return for the release of Gilad Shalit. However only 45% support and 50% oppose Barghouti’s release if needed in order to negotiate with him a compromise agreement with the Palestinians.
• 31% of the Israelis believe that there is greater likelihood to reach a compromise agreement if negotiated with Marwan Barghouti, while 34% think that negotiations with Abu Mazin has a greater chance to succeed.7% believe that both have similar chance to succeed, and 22% - that neither of them is likely to succeed.
• 57% of the Israelis support and 42% oppose talks with Hamas if needed to reach a compromise agreement with the Palestinians. In June 47% supported and 51% opposed such talks. A sizeable Israeli majority (65%) support and only 32% oppose talks with a national unity government composed jointly of Hamas and Fatah if such a government is reestablished.
• 64% of Israelis oppose full evacuation of the Golan Heights in return for a complete peace agreement with Syria, and 25% support it. In our June poll 67% opposed and 22% supported such an agreement. If in the peace agreement, Syria will commit to disconnect itself from Iran and stop its support of Hizbulla and Hamas, support increases somewhat to 31%.

 (B) Threat perceptions and support of violence

 The weeks preceding the poll were characterized by significant reduction in violent acts after the cease fire between Israel and Hamas came into effect.

• While 68% of the Israelis opposed the cease fire agreement with Hamas and 30% supported it in our June poll, now after it went into effect, 55% of the Israelis support its continuation and 39% oppose it. Among Palestinians 78% supported it in June and 21% opposed it. In our current poll 81% support its continuation and 15% oppose it.
• Among Israelis, 60% are worried that they or their family may be harmed by Arabs in their daily life, compared to 63% three months ago. Among Palestinians 53% fear that their security and safety and that of their family is not assured compared to 56% three months ago.
• Most Palestinians (59%) think that the best way to free prisoners from Israeli jails is to reach a peace agreement that includes freeing all prisoners; 39% think that the best way is to kidnap soldiers and exchange them. However, in the context of the kidnapping of Gilad Shalit, 74% support kidnapping soldiers to exchange them with Palestinian or Arab prisoners, and only 21% oppose such kidnapping.
• In this regard, 49% of Israelis think that Israel should pay almost any price to return Israeli prisoners of war or dead soldiers home because this is a moral obligation of the state. 41% believe that Israel should not release prisoners in return for soldiers’ bodies since this may diminish Arabs’ interest in keeping Israeli prisoners of war alive.
• Among Israelis, 26% suggest that Israel should reoccupy the Gaza Strip and stay there if the shelling of Israeli communities from the Gaza Strip continues; 41% think that Israel should carry out ad-hoc operations against the shelling and get out; 27% compared to 22% three months ago believe that Israel should use primarily diplomatic rather than military steps.
• A majority of Israelis (56%) support the bombing of the Iranian nuclear facilities in case all the international measures taken to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon fail; 32% oppose it.

(C) Attitudes toward reconciliation

 If a peace agreement is reached, and a Palestinian state is established and recognized by Israel, 70% of the Palestinians and 76% of the Israelis would support a process of reconciliation, While Palestinians would mainly support open borders and economic cooperation, Israelis see more favorably than Palestinians changes in the school curriculum, cessation of incitement in public discourse and social interaction. 

More specifically:

• 84% of the Palestinians and 43% of the Israelis would support open borders;

•  71% of the Palestinians and 65% of the Israelis would support joint economic institutions and ventures;

• 41% of the Palestinians and 37% of the Israelis would support joint political institutions designed eventually to lead to a confederate system;

• 36% of the Palestinians and 57% of the Israelis would support legal measures to prevent incitement against the other side;

• 13% of the Palestinians and 39% of the Israelis would support a school curriculum, which educates school children to give up irredentist aspirations.

•  On a personal level, under conditions of peace, 58% of the Israeli Jews would invite a Palestinian friend to their home, and 49% are willing to visit a Palestinian friend in his home. 32% percent of the Palestinians would invite and 32% would visit an Israeli friend.

• When asked how soon will full reconciliation between the two people be achieved, 31% of the Israelis and 43% of the Palestinians believe it will never be achieved, 40% of the Israelis and 29% of the Palestinians think  it will be achieved only in many generations to come, or by the next generation; 24% of the Israelis and 20% of the Palestinians believe it will be achieved in the next decade, or the next few years.

(D) Domestic political affairs 

•   If personal elections for prime minister were held today in Israel, 30% would vote for Bibi Netanyahu, Tzipi Livni would receive 19% of the vote, Shaul Mofaz would get 10%, and 11% would vote for Ehud Barak. Netanyahu is also considered by Israelis as the best candidate to lead the country toward peace with the Palestinians and/or Syria: 29% of the Israelis think he is the most able to do so; 16% choose Tzipi Livni; Barak comes out third with 9%, and Mofaz receives 8%. When security challenges are concerned, 29% of the Israelis trust Bibi Netanyahu most, 20% trust Barak, 16% trust Mofaz, and only 9% believe in Livni.

• In the Palestinian Authority, if presidential elections were to take place today, Mahmud Abbas, the Fatah nominee, would receive 53% of the vote, while Ismail Haniyeh as the Hamas nominee would receive 39% of the vote.

Joint Israeli Palestinian Poll 

Majority of Palestinians and Israelis prefer two-state solution over binational state or confederation

A majority of Israelis and Palestinians prefer a two-state solution as the most acceptable resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, as opposed to a single binational state or a Palestinian-Israeli confederation. 

This is the clear conclusion drawn from the latest public opinion survey conducted under the auspices of the Harry S.Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. 

The March joint Israeli Palestinian poll focused on the main political outlines for a final status Palestinian- Israeli agreement. Those surveyed were asked whether they preferred a solution of two states for two peoples, a binational Palestinian-Israeli state, or a Palestinian-Israeli confederation. 

The results were as follows:

• 71% among Israelis and 57% among Palestinians supported the “two-state solution,” namely the establishment of an independent Palestinian state alongside of Israel.
• Compared to the two-state solution, only 24% of the Israelis and 29% of the Palestinians supported the solution of a binational state, in which Israel is unified with the West Bank and the Gaza Strip to establish one state in which Palestinians and Israelis would have equal rights.
• The third outline for a political settlement is a two states for two peoples solution, with joint political institutions which will lead eventually to a confederation of the two states. Only 30% of the Israelis and 26% among Palestinians supported this solution.

In recent months the idea of a binational state has increasingly been put forth as a solution. However, it would seem to be impossible to implement this option given the strong opposition to it in the two publics.

• Palestinians and Israelis also understand that the most difficult solution to implement is the bi-national state solution: 38% of the Israelis and 42% of the Palestinians think so. Fewer respondents, think so about the two-state solution (29% and 32% respectively), and even less (21% and 18% respectively) believe so about the confederation.

The Palestinian sample size was 1270 adults interviewed in person in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip in 127 randomly selected locations between March 4-6. The margin of error is 3%. The Israeli sample includes 501 adult Israelis interviewed by phone in Hebrew, Arabic or Russian between March 1-10. The margin of error is 4.9%. 

The Joint Israeli-Palestinian Poll is supported by the Ford Foundation (Cairo) and the Adenauer Stiftung (Jerusaelm and Ramallah). The poll was planned and supervised by Prof. Yaacov Shamir of the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace and the Department of Communication and Journalism at the Hebrew University, and Prof. Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR). 

For further details on the Palestinian survey contact PSR director, Prof. Khalil Shikaki or Walid Ladadweh, at tel. 02-2964933 or emailpcpsr@pcpsr.org. On the Israeli survey, contact Prof Yaacov Shamir at tel. 03-6419429 or email jshamir@mscc.huji.ac.il.

Joint Israeli Palestinian Public Opinion Poll, June 2008  

Israelis strongly oppose cease-fire with Hamas

if agreement does not include release of Gilad Shalit; Palestinians strongly oppose such an agreement if it does not include the West Bank or does not stipulate an immediate opening of the Rafah crossing to Egypt

These are the results of the most recent poll conducted jointly by the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah, between May 27 and June 7, 2008.  

Assuming that Shalit’s release was part of an agreement, the Israeli public is split in supporting an accord in which Hamas will cease the violent attacks and Kassam launching from the Gaza Strip, and Israel will stop its military operations in the Gaza Strip and remove the closure. The figures were: 50% opposing and 47% supporting such an agreement. If the agreement does not include Shalit, 68% oppose and only 30% support such an agreement. Among Palestinians, 78% support the cease-fire with Israel, but support declines sharply to around 20% if the cease-fire agreement does not include the West Bank or does not stipulate an immediate opening of the Rafah crossing to Egypt.   

The joint poll also examined Israelis’ and Palestinians’ assessments of the various negotiation tracks including the Israeli-Palestinian track, the Israeli-Syrian track and the Saudi (Arab League) plan.  

The poll indicates a hardening of Israeli opposition to the return of the Golan Heights for full peace with Syria: 67% of Israelis oppose such an agreement, compared to 56% in March 2008. There is also a noticeable decline in Israelis’ support for concessions to the Palestinians as embodied in the Clinton parameters or Taba negotiations. These parameters have been considered to be the most realistic framework for a final status agreement between Israel and the Palestinians. For the first time since December 2003, support for Clinton’s package decreased below 50% (49%), whereas in previous polls, support reached as high as 64%. Among Palestinians, findings show that two-thirds believe that Syrian-Israeli progress or a peace agreement would contribute to successful Palestinian-Israeli negotiations or have no impact on those negotiations. Minority support among Palestinians for a package along the lines of the Taba negotiations or the Clinton Parameters remains stable at 46%.  Recent talks among Palestinians in favor of the one-state solution did not affect their public attitudes, as only 27% support this solution while a majority of 58% prefers the two-state solution.  

The weeks preceding the poll were characterized by significant political events in Israel, including the Talanski testimony and Barak’s demand of Olmert to detach himself from political decisions. Israeli data collection began after the Talanski scandal so it reflects the full impact of the testimony. Barak’s statement however was made midway the poll so it reflects only part of its impact. Israelis’ decline in support for concessions to the Palestinians and Syria can be interpreted as a result of the public’s confusion and disillusion with its leadership and Olmert’s loss of legitimacy to conduct negotiations on such crucial issues while being under police investigation.   

The Palestinian sample size is 1270 adults interviewed face-to-face in the West Bank and Gaza Strip in 127 randomly selected locations between June 5 and 7, 2008. The margin of error is 3%. The Israeli sample includes 1006 adult Israelis interviewed by phone in Hebrew Arabic or Russian between May 27 and June 5, 2008. The margin of error is 3%. The poll was planned and supervised by Dr. Yaacov Shamir, the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace and the Department of Communication and Journalism at the Hebrew University and Dr. Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR).  

For further details on the Palestinian survey contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki or Walid Ladadweh, at tel. 022964933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org. On the Israeli survey, contact Dr. Yaacov Shamir at tel. 036419429 or email jshamir@mscc.huji.ac.il.

MAIN FINDINGS  

(A) Current Negotiation Tracks

• Of all negotiation tracks and options currently under way, 24% of the Israelis believe that the Palestinian track should be most preferred by Israel, 20% believe that the Saudi (Arab League) option which offers a comprehensive peace agreement with all states in return for all the territories occupied in 1967 should be most preferred, and only 12% think that a full peace agreement and normalization with Syria in return for the Golan Heights should be preferred. 32% believe neither track should be preferred and only 2% think that all tracks should be pursued.
• As to which is the most promising track, 25% think it is the Palestinian track, 16% think it is the track with Syria and 17% think so about the Saudi option; 30% of the Israelis think none of the tracks currently underway is promising. These results indicate the depth of Israelis’ disenchantment with the diplomatic venues and options currently on the agenda.
• With regard to support for the main peace initiatives currently underway, our poll indicates noticeable decline among Israelis. Support for the overall package of the Clinton parameters decreased below 50% for the first time since December 2003. 49% of Israelis support the overall package now compared to majority support we found in 4 previous polls in 2005 through 2007. Among Palestinians support remains relatively stable at 46% compared to 47% last December. Opposition among Palestinians for this package stands today at 52% compared to 49% last December.  
• 67% of Israelis oppose full evacuation of the Golan Heights in return for a complete peace agreement with Syria, and 22% support it. These figures constitute a significant increase in opposition to the return of the Golan Heights compared to our March poll, where 56% opposed and 25% supported such an agreement. If in the peace agreement, Syria will commit to disconnect itself from Iran and stop its support of Hizbulla and Hamas, support increases only marginally - to 27%. In this regard, 32% of the Palestinians believe that if significant progress is made in the Israeli-Syrian talks, it will contribute to successful Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, 26% think that it will represent an impediment to successful Palestinian-Israeli negotiations and 35% think that it will have no impact on Palestinian-Israeli negotiations.
• 57% of the Israelis oppose and 39% support the Saudi initiative which calls for Arab recognition of and normalization of relations with Israel after it ends its occupation of Arab territories occupied in 1967 and after the establishment of a Palestinian state. These figures did not change from our March poll. Among Palestinians, 67% support the plan and 28% oppose it
• It seems that the Talanski affair stripped Olmert of his remaining legitimacy to continue with negotiations over peace agreements. Almost two thirds (64%) of the Israelis believe that it is inappropriate for Olmert to continue peace negotiations while being under police investigation; only 32% think he can continue negotiations under these circumstances. Moreover, only 32% of the Israeli public believe that the Talanski affair is an attempt by the Israeli Right to stop Olmert’s negotiations over peace agreements; 54% don’t believe so and 13% don’t know.
• 55% of the Israelis believe that the meetings between Mahmud Abbas and Ehud Olmert are not beneficial and should be stopped while 36% believe they should continue. Palestinians show even greater disappointment with these talks. Among Palestinians a sizeable majority of 68% believe the talks should come to a halt while only 27% believe they are beneficial and should be continued.
• 50% among Israelis oppose a cease fire agreement with Hamas in which Hamas will cease the violent attacks and Kassam launching from the Gaza Strip, and Israel will stop its military operations in the Gaza Strip and remove the closure; 47% support such an agreement. Opposition increases to 68% if such an agreement will not include the release of Gilad Shalit. Among Palestinians, 78% support the ceasefire with Israel but support declines sharply to 23% only if the ceasefire agreement is restricted to the Gaza Strip and does not include the West Bank. Moreover, support declines further to 20% if the agreement does not stipulate an immediate opening of the crossings, especially the Rafah crossing to Egypt.  
• Nevertheless 47% of the Israelis support and 51% oppose talks with Hamas if needed to reach a compromise agreement with the Palestinians. However a sizeable Israeli majority (62%) support and only 35% oppose talks with a national unity government composed jointly of Hamas and Fatah if such a government is reestablished. Among Palestinians, if Israel agrees to conduct peace negotiations with Hamas, 60% believe that Hamas should negotiate with Israel and 35% believe it should not.
• Similarly, 43% of the Israelis support and 52% oppose the release of Marwan Barghouti from prison and negotiation with him, if needed to reach such an agreement. 28% of the Israelis believe that there is greater likelihood to reach a compromise agreement if negotiated with Marwan Barghouti, while 36% think that negotiations with Abu Mazin have a greater chance to succeed. 4% believe that both have similar chance to succeed, and 26% - that neither of them is likely to succeed. Among Palestinians, 31% believe that Mahmud Abbas is more able than Barghouti to force Israel to make more concessions in negotiations while 28% believe Barghouti is more able than Abu Mazin in doing so. 11% believe both are equally able to force Israel to concede while 25% believe neither one is able to do so.
• 67% of the Israelis support and 29% oppose mutual recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people as part of a permanent status agreement. Among Palestinians, 56% support and 43% oppose this step. The results in both publics are the same as in our March poll.
• 69% among Israelis and 66% of the Palestinians believe that the chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state during the next five years are non-existent or weak. Only 28% of Israelis and 30% of Palestinians believe chances are fair or high. Despite the fact that only slightly more Palestinians believe that the one state solution is more difficult to achieve than the two state solution, a much larger percentage (58%) prefers the two-state solution and only 27% support the one state solution. The one state solution was presented to the Palestinians as one in which Israel is unified with the West Bank and the Gaza Strip to establish one state whereby Palestinian Arabs and Israeli Jews would be equal. The two-state solution was presented as one that entails the establishment of a Palestinian state along side Israel.

 (B) Threat perceptions and support of violence  

·        Among Israelis, 63% are worried that they or their family may be harmed by Arabs in their daily life, compared to 74% three months ago, after the shooting attack in the religious seminary in Jerusalem. Among Palestinians 56% fear that their security and safety and that of their family is not assured compared to 63% three months ago in the aftermath of the Israeli major incursion into the Gaza Strip that left more than 130 Palestinians dead.

• With Palestinian threat perception reduced, Palestinians support of armed attacks against Israeli civilians drops considerably from 67% last March to 55% in this poll. Similarly, support for launching rockets from the Gaza Strip against Israeli towns and cities such as Sderot and Ashkelon drops during the same period from 64% to 57%.
• Among Israelis, 29% suggest that Israel should reoccupy the Gaza Strip and stay there if the shelling of Israeli communities from the Gaza Strip continues, just as in our March poll; 43% think that Israel should carry out ad-hoc operations against the shelling and get out compared to 41% in March. Only 22% compared to 27% three months ago believe that Israel should use primarily diplomatic rather than military steps