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These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 12-16 December 2018. The period before the conduct of the fieldwork of the poll witnessed several developments including the intensification of popular opposition to the Social Security Law, the failure of reconciliation efforts, the release of a report indicating that President Abbas intends to dissolve the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC), the transfer of the Qatari funds to Israel to cover the cost of fuel for the Gaza power station, and the direct Qatari payment to Gazan employees of the former Hamas government. Also, it was revealed during this period that some Palestinians have sold property to Israeli Jews in East Jerusalem and other places in the West Bank. Despite the efforts to calm conditions in the Gaza Strip, this period witnessed a serious escalation in violence between Hamas and Israel. The US Administration announced its intention to make public its own plan for Palestinian-Israeli peace. The Israeli prime minister visited Oman and Israeli ministers visited the United Arab Emirates. Finally, a major violent escalation took place in the West Bank during the period of the fieldwork for this poll. This press release addresses all these issues and covers other matters such as parliamentary and presidential elections, general conditions in the Palestinian territories, the peace process and the future possible directions for Palestinians in the absence of a viable process. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is +/-3%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel. 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

Main Findings:

Findings of the last quarter of 2018 indicate a significant increase in Hamas’ popularity in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. The violent confrontations in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip were probably responsible for this change. Moreover, Hamas’ success in insuring Gazan access to fuel and money to pay the salaries of its former government employees probably contributed to this outcome. Support for Fatah remains relatively unchanged. Moreover, support for Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh rises in the Gaza Strip while support for President Mahmoud 

Abbas declines in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. If new presidential elections are held today, findings show that Haniyeh would most likely be the winner. If parliamentary elections are held today, Fatah and Hamas are likely to receive the same levels of support.

Findings also show that the public has lost hope for a successful reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas and that a large majority is dissatisfied with the performance of the reconciliation government. They also show that the public is highly opposed to the policies of president Abbas toward the Gaza Strip including his demand for the full transfer of control over the Strip by Hamas to the reconciliation government and his demand for one gun. Indeed, the public supports the continued presence of armed battalions of the various factions alongside the official PA security services in the Gaza Strip. An overwhelming majority demands the ending of sanctions imposed by President Abbas on the Gaza Strip such as the decrease in salaries and in the amount of electricity provided to Gazans. But it is worth noting that a large percentage supports the dissolution of the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) despite the fact that more than one third believes that such a step is harmful to the reconciliation efforts.

Findings also show a widespread opposition to the Social Security Law reaching almost a consensus among West Bankers who believe that the law applies to them or will have an impact on them or their families. It is evident that the distrust in the government and the belief that the law is unjust are the most important drivers of the opposition to the law.

The majority views the results of the last confrontation between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip as a victory for Hamas. Indeed, an even larger majority than before continues to support Hamas-Israel indirect negotiations for a long term tahdia or truce. The majority also supports the current agreement between Hamas and Israel that allows Qatari-funded Israeli fuel as well as Qatar money to reach the Gaza Strip despite opposition by the PA to this Qatari role. In fact, findings show that three quarters of the Palestinians welcome the Qatari role in the Gaza Strip, both in terms of paying for the fuel needed for the generation of electricity and for the payment of the salaries of the employees of the former Hamas government. Despite all of this, the public tends to believe that the current ceasefire in the Gaza Strip will collapse shortly and that such a collapse will lead to a widescale war against the Gaza Strip.

Findings regarding the peace process indicate a significant decline in support for the two-state solution and a considerable rise in support for an armed intifada. They also show a significant rise in the perception that the two-state solution is no longer feasible due to settlement expansion in the West Bank. Moreover, an overwhelming majority believes that the Trump Administration is not serious about promoting peace between Palestinians and Israelis. Palestinians believe that the Trump peace plan, when and if one is ever presented, will not call for any of the following: the establishment of a Palestinian state, East Jerusalem as a capital of the state of Palestine, the June 1967 lines as a basis for setting borders of Palestine, a just solution to the refugee problem, or ending the Israeli occupation and the withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Palestinian territories occupied in 1967. For this reason, three quarters of the Palestinians demand a rejection of the Trump plan. But findings also indicate that a large minority believes that the US mediation is indispensable for any peace negotiations with Israel. Moreover, the public is split in its attitude toward the Trump plan if it does indeed contain all these vital elements that the public currently thinks will be absent.

(1) Presidential and parliamentary elections:

• 64% of the public want president Abbas to resign while 32% want him to remain in office. Three months ago, 62% said they want Abbas to resign. Demand for Abbas’ resignation stands at 55% in the West Bank and 77% in the Gaza Strip. Three months ago, demand for Abbas resignation stood at 52% in the West Bank and 78% in the Gaza Strip.
• Level of satisfaction with the performance of president Abbas stands at 32% and dissatisfaction at 65%. Level of satisfaction with Abbas stands at 38% in the West Bank and 23% in the Gaza Strip. Three months ago, satisfaction with Abbas stood at 35% (42% in the West Bank and 23% in the Gaza Strip).
• If new presidential elections were held today and only two were nominated, Mahmoud Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh, the former would receive 42% and the latter 49% of the vote (compared to 47% for Abbas and 45% for Haniyeh three months ago). In the Gaza Strip, Abbas receives 36% of the vote (compared to 41% three months ago) and Haniyeh receives 62% (compared to 56% three months ago). In the West Bank, Abbas receives 46% (compared to 51% three months ago) and Haniyeh 41% (compared to 41% three months ago). If the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, Barghouti receives 55% and Haniyeh 40%.
• If president Abbas does not nominate himself in a new election, 29% prefer to see Marwan Barghouti replacing him, while 24% prefer Ismail Haniyeh. Mohammad Dahlan is preferred by 6% (1% in the West Bank and 16% in the Gaza Strip). Rami al Hamdallah is selected by 5%; Khalid Mishal by 4%; Mustafa Barghouti and Saeb Erikat by 2%; and Salam Fayyad by 1% each.
• If new legislative elections were held today with the participation of all factions, 69% say they would participate in such elections. Of those who would participate, 34% say they would vote for Hamas and 35% say they would vote for Fatah, 10% would vote for all other third parties combined, and 21% are undecided. Three months ago, vote for Hamas stood at 27% and Fatah at 36%. Vote for Hamas in the Gaza Strip stands today at 39% (compared to 34% three months ago) and for Fatah at 31% (compared to 32% three months ago). In the West Bank, vote for Hamas stands at 29% (compared to 21% three months ago) and Fatah at 39% (compared to 38% three months ago).

(2) Domestic conditions:

• Positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip stands at 4% and positive evaluation of conditions in the West Bank stands at 14%.
• In a close-ended question, we asked respondents to identify the party or side responsible for the worsening conditions in the Gaza Strip: Hamas, the PA and Abbas, Egypt, or others. The largest percentage (43%) blames the PA, president Abbas, and the reconciliation government; 21% blame Hamas, 9% blame Egypt, and 20% blame others. Responses of West Bankers differ from those of Gazans: 58% of Gazans, compared to 34% of West Bankers, blame the PA, Abbas and the reconciliation government; and 28% of Gazans, compared to 17% of West Bankers, blame Hamas.
• Perception of safety and security in the Gaza Strip stands at 55%. In the West Bank perception of safety and security stands at 47%. Three months ago, perception of safety and security in the Gaza Strip stood at 45% and in the West Bank at 48%.
• One third )32%) of the public says it wants to emigrate due to political, security, and economic conditions. The percentage rises in the Gaza Strip to 48% and declines in the West Bank to 22%.
• Only 35% of the West Bankers say that people can criticize the authority in their area without fear and 61% say that they cannot. In the Gaza Strip, 48% say that people can criticize the authority in their area without fear and 50% believe that they cannot.
• Perception of corruption in PA institutions stands at 80%.
• A majority of the public (53%) views the PA as a burden on the Palestinian people while 42% view it as an asset for the Palestinian people.
• We asked the public about its viewership habits in the last two months. Findings indicate that Al Jazeera TV viewership remains the highest, standing at 20%, followed by Al Aqsa TV (14%), Maan TV, Palestine TV, and Palestine Today (at 12% each), al Mayadeen and al Quds TV (5% each), and Al Arabiya (at 4%).

(3) Reconciliation and the reconciliation government: 

• 23% are satisfied and 66% are dissatisfied with the performance of the reconciliation government. Three months ago, satisfaction stood at 22%.
• 29% are optimistic and 66% are pessimistic about the success of reconciliation. Three months ago, optimism stood at 30%.
• The public is opposed to Abbas’ position that Hamas must fully hand over control over the Gaza Strip to the reconciliation government, including the ministries, the security sector, and the “arms:” only 34% agrees with Abbas’ demand but a majority of 61% disagrees. Three months ago, 31% said they agreed with Abbas.
• When the question of “arms” was further clarified by asking the public if it supports or opposes the continued existence of armed factional battalions in the Gaza Strip alongside the official PA security sector forces, more than two-thirds (68%) said that they prefer to keep the armed battalions in place and only 25% said that they oppose the continued existence of the armed battalions in the Gaza Strip. It is worth noting that on this matter, there are no differences between the attitudes of the West Bankers and Gazans.
• Moreover, an overwhelming majority (77%) demands that the PA immediately lift all the measures taken against the Gaza Strip, such as public sector’s salary deductions and the reduction in access to electricity; only 18% say that such measures should be removed only after Hamas fully hands over control over the Strip to the reconciliation government. It is worth mentioning that the demand for the immediate lifting of PA measures stands at 80% in the West Bank and 73% in the Gaza Strip.
• The largest percentage (47%) supports the dissolution of the Palestinian Legislative Council and 43% are opposed to that. Nonetheless, 37% believe that such a dissolution will harm the prospects of reconciliation while 21% believe it will improve the chances for reconciliation, and 34% believe it will have no impact on the reconciliation.

4) Israel-Hamas confrontations in the Gaza Strip and the long-term tahdia, or truce:   

• A majority of 61% (compared to 55% three months ago) supports and 33% oppose a Hamas-Israel long-term tahdia, or cessation of violence, even in the absence of reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas. The agreement would entail the opening of the border crossing with Egypt and access to a seaport and an airport in a neighboring area in return for a Hamas enforcement of a long-term ceasefire as well as ending the Return Marches and the incendiary kites. Support for this long-term cessation of violence is higher in the Gaza Strip (64%) than in the West Bank (59%).
• Two-thirds (67%) support a limited tahdia (quiet) that would allow the entry into the Gaza Strip of Qatari fuel and money in return for stopping the confrontations along the Gaza-Israel border area including the incendiary balloons. Opposition to this tahdia stands at 28%. Support for this tahdia stands at 72% in the Gaza Strip and 64% in the West Bank.
• But a majority of 62% believes the current ceasefire between Hamas and Israel will not last for long and that it will collapse soon while 32% believe it will last for a long or a medium period.
• If the current ceasefire collapses, a majority of 62% believes it will lead to a widescale war between Hamas and Israel while 31% believe that a collapse of the ceasefire will not lead to a widescale war.
• But the public is split over the chances for reaching a long term Tahdia that would ease the siege and stop the confrontation: 50% believe the chances are high or medium and 48% think the chances are non-existent.
• 62% think that Hamas has come out victorious from the most recent confrontation with Israel while 31% think it has not come out victorious.  By contrast, about two-thirds (66%) are dissatisfied and 25% are satisfied with the position taken by the PA and the PA leadership during the most recent confrontation in the Gaza Strip.

5) Social Security Law

• 44% of the public believe that the Social Security Law applies to them or that they will be impacted by its implementation while 46% believe it does not apply to them or will not affect them.
• In its position toward the Social Security Law, the public is divided into three groups: (1) the largest one (51%) is opposed to the implementation of the law now or in the future; (2) only 13% support the implementation of the law now; and (3) 9% support the implementation of the law but only after it is revised. It is noticeable that opposition to the law in the West Bank is higher than it is in the Gaza Strip (65% and 28% respectively). Moreover, Opposition to the implementation of the law now or in the future is higher among those who say that the law applies to them or will affect them, reaching two-thirds (67%); and this is particularly true among West Bankers as opposition to the law stands among them at 84%.
• In an open question, addressed to those who said that they oppose the implementation of the law, we asked about the reasons for the opposition. Three answers were provided: 49% said the law is unjust, 32% said they do not trust the government and fear its corruption, and 14% said that their salaries are already too small and they cannot afford further cuts.
• Even if the law was revised as some demand, only 31% believe that the Social Security Fund or the government will actually make the payment to the retirees; a majority of 56% believes that the Fund and the government will not honor their commitment to pay the retirement wages.

6) Sale of Palestinian property to Israeli Jews

• An overwhelming majority of the public (88%) designate other Palestinians who sell property to Israeli Jews in East Jerusalem and other occupied territories as traitors while 9% call them corrupt and unpatriotic.
• Three quarters believe that the current penalties for sale of property to Israeli Jews in East Jerusalem and other places do not provide a deterrence against such sales while 14% believe the current penalties provide a sufficient deterrent. When, in an open question, we asked the public to identify a deterrent punishment, about two-thirds (64%) said it is the death penalty while 22% said imprisonment.
• Findings show that more than three quarters (78%) are dissatisfied and 17% are satisfied with the measures taken by the PA to deter sale of properties by Palestinians to Israeli Jews.

7) Role of Qatar in the Gaza Strip

• More than three quarters (78%) support the Qatari efforts to support the electricity sector in the Gaza Strip despite the fact that the PA is opposed to this Qatari effort; opposition to Qatari efforts does not exceed 19%.
• More significantly, an overwhelming majority of 79% supports the Qatari payment of salaries to the employees of the former Hamas government in the Gaza Strip despite the fact that the PA is opposed to this payment; opposition to the payment does not exceed 19%.
• Generally speaking, a large majority of 73% looks positively, and only 25% looks negatively, at the role played by Qatar on the Palestinian issue, particularly in the Gaza Strip. It is noticeable that there are no differences between the views of Gazans and West Bankers regarding the Qatari role.

8) Decisions of the Palestinian Central Council of the PLO

• Two thirds (67%) support and 29% oppose the Central Council’s decision to suspend Palestinian recognition of the state of Israel until Israel recognizes the state of Palestine.
• Similarly, 72% support and 23% oppose the Central Council’s decision to stop security coordination with Israel; but more than two-thirds (70%) believe that the Palestinian leadership will not implement that decision and only 23% believe it will.

9) The peace process

• Support for the concept of the two-state solution stands at 43% and opposition at 55%. No description or details were provided for the concept. Three months ago, support for the concept stood at 47%. But support for the two-state solution rises to 52% when the borders of the Palestinian state are described as those of the 4^th of June 1967.
• Yet, when we asked the public to choose between the two-state solution, the one-state solution, or any other third solution, 45% said they prefer the two-state solution, 22% said they prefer the one-state solution, and 23% preferred some other solution. It should be noted however that in this question we have defined the two-state solution to mean “a Palestinian state alongside Israel based on the 1967 borders and East Jerusalem as its capital.” The one-state solution was defined as “a state that includes Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip in which Palestinians and Israeli Jews enjoy equal rights in all matters.” Three months ago, support for the two-state solution stood at 53%, for the one state solution at 24%, and 14% preferred a third undefined alternative.
• A majority of 63% believes that the two-state solution is no longer practical or feasible due to the expansion of Israeli settlements while 35% believe that the solution remains practical. Moreover, 73% believe that the chances for the creation of a Palestinian state alongside the state of Israel in the next five years are slim or nonexistence while 26% believe the chances to be medium or high.
• The most preferred way out of the current status quo is “reaching a peace agreement with Israel;” according to 34% of the public while an identical percentage prefers waging “an armed struggle against the Israeli occupation.” Only 11% prefer “waging a non-violent resistance” and a minority of 16% prefers to keep the status quo. Three months ago, 40% said that they prefer reaching a peace agreement with Israel.
• But a large minority of 44% thinks that armed struggle is the most effective means of establishing a Palestinian state next to the state of Israel while 28% believe that negotiation is the most effective means and 23% think non-violent resistance is the most effective. Three months ago, 39% said negotiation is the most effective means and 33% said armed struggle is the most effective means.
• An overwhelming majority of 77% say they are worried that in their daily life they would be hurt by Israelis or that their land would be confiscated or homes demolished; 23% say they are worried.
• 59% believe that Israel’s long-term aspiration is to expand the state of Israel to stretch from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea and to expel the Palestinian population, and 23% think that Israel aims at annexing the occupied territories and deny the Palestinian citizens their rights. By contrast, only 18% think that Israel’s long-term aspiration is to insure its security and then withdraw from all or parts of the occupied territories.
• In light of the suspension of peace negotiations, Palestinians support various alternative directions: 71% support joining more international organizations; 61% support popular non-violence resistance; 54% support a return to an armed intifada; 47% support dissolving the PA; and 32% support abandoning the two-state solution and demanding the establishment of one state for Palestinians and Israelis. Three months ago, only 46% said they prefer a return to armed intifada and 42% said they prefer to dissolve the PA.
• Half of the public (50%) opposes and 47% support in principle the holding of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations in order to resolve the conflict.
• If a Palestinian state is established, about two-thirds (68%) want it to be armed with heavy weapons, such as tanks and air force, while 27% want it to have a strong security force but without heavy arms.
• After the establishment of a Palestinian state, a majority of 54% is opposed to the idea of a confederation between that state and Jordan while 40% support the idea.

10) Trump’s Peace Plan:

• An overwhelming majority (80%) believes that the Trump Administration is not serious about launching a new peace plan and 16% believe it is serious.
• If the Trump Administration does nonetheless offer such a peace plan, 73% believe the chances for its success are slim or non-existent and 24% believe the chances are high or medium.
• A large majority of 72% believes that if the US does indeed offer a peace plan, it will not call for the establishment of a Palestinian state next to the state of Israel; 22% believe it will.
• A similar percentage (75%) believes that the plan will not call for a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem; 21% believe it will.
• 67% believe the Trump plan will not call for the borders of the Palestinian state to be based on the lines of June 1967 with minor mutual land swaps; 26% believe it will.
• An overwhelming majority of 80% believes the plan will not call for a just solution to the refugee problem; 16% believe it will.
• Similarly, 77% believe the plan will not call for the ending of the Israeli occupation and the withdrawal of the Israeli army from the areas occupied in 1967; 19% believe it will.
• 74% believe that the Palestinian leadership should reject the US plan, if offered, and 21% believe it should accept it.
• But if the Trump plan does indeed include all such items, such as a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, with borders based on the 1967 lines, a just solution to the refugees’ problem, and an Israeli army withdrawal from the territories occupied in 1967, the largest percentage (49%) calls for rejecting it and 44% call for accepting it.
• A majority of 59% is opposed and 28% is not opposed to a resumption of dialogue between the Palestinian leadership and the Trump Administration. Official contacts between the PA and the US government were suspended by the PA after the US recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
• We asked the public if Palestinian-Israeli negotiations can be sustained without the US role as a mediator: A majority of 52% believes that it can while 43% view the US role as indispensable.

11) Israeli relations with Arab countries:

• 78% believe that the Arab World is preoccupied with its problems and internal conflicts and that Palestine is not its primary cause; 21% believe that Palestine remains the primary cause of the Arab World. Moreover, 72% believe that an alliance already exists between Sunni Arabs and Israel against Iran despite the continued Israeli occupation; 21% disagrees with this assessment.
• A majority of 60% believes that the visits by Israeli leaders to Arab countries are harming the prospects for peace while 10% believe they contribute to peace making; 27% believe they neither help nor hinder peace making.
• We asked the public to speculate about the motivation of some of the Arab countries in allowing such Israeli visits to their capitals. A majority of 60% said that they want to win the support of the Trump Administration, 17% said they are seeking to fight Iran, and 12% said they are interested in promoting Palestinian-Israeli peace process.

(12) Most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems confronting Palestinians today:

• 46% believe that the first most vital Palestinian goal should be to end Israeli occupation in the areas occupied in 1967 and build a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital. By contrast, 30% believe the first most vital goal should be to obtain the right of return of refugees to their 1948 towns and villages, 14% believe that it should be to build a pious or moral individual and a religious society, one that applies all Islamic teachings, and 11% believe that the first and most vital goal should be to establish a democratic political system that respects freedoms and rights of Palestinians.
• The most serious problem confronting Palestinian society today in the eyes of 29% of the public is the continuation of occupation and settlement activities while 26% say it is poverty and unemployment; 25% say it is the spread of corruption in public institutions; 15% say it is the siege of the Gaza Strip and the closure of its crossings; and 3% say it is the absence of national unity.

(13) The murder of Jamal Khashoggi:

• A majority of 51% believes that Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman is the person responsible for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, while 26% put the blame for the murder on King Salman, and 9% put it on those employees reporting to the two leaders. 

15-18 June 2006

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip during June 15-18, 2006. The poll deals with the prisoners’ document and the referendum on the document, permanent settlement, peace process and violence, and domestic balance of power. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in the West Bank (830) and the Gaza Strip (440) in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at Tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

Main Findings:

Findings indicate the development of two contradictory domestic dynamics accompanied by an increase in the level of pessimism about the long and short term future, an increase in the level of support for violence, and a decrease in the support for a permanent status agreement along the lines of the Clinton Parameters, Taba negotiations, and the Geneva Initiative. Findings show the development of an internal consensus on the prisoners’ document with about three quarters supporting its contents as a package. The fact that the document has been the product of an inclusive consultation among prominent prisoners of all the factions may have contributed to its acceptance. Traditionally, prisoners have been subject on internal consensus.

Parallel to this consensus however, polarization is evident in the way the public views the call for a referendum on the same prisoners’ document and the voting intentions in that referendum if it is to take place. In other words, despite public acceptance of the ideas in the document, about half do not intend to vote for it in a referendum if one is to actually be conducted. This finding shows that Hamas has successfully managed to frame the referendum to the public in highly negative terms, as an attempt by PA president Mahmud Abbas to bypass the will of the voters, to marginalize the legislature and the cabinet, and capitulation to international pressure.

But Hamas’ success remains limited. It has failed to prevent the development of the consensus indicated above with regard to the prisoners’ document, and it has lost significant public support compared to the situation three months ago. The loss of popular support may reflect public disappointment with Hamas’ response to the prisoners’ document; it may not necessarily reflect public discontent over Hamas’ inability to deliver vital services. It is possible that the loss of Hamas’ popularity may have more to do with the shift in the source of pressure on that group. When the pressure was external – coming from the Quartet with its conditions and financial sanctions—Hamas gained greater public support. But when pressure became internal – in the form of the prisoners’ document and the apparent consensus of the various factions—Hamas lost some of its popularity.

Findings also indicate a decline in the level of short term and long term optimism and an increase in threat perception. Support for armed attacks against Israeli civilians continues to rise. In fact, findings show that support for bombing attacks has more than doubled compared to the situation nine months ago. This development is also reflected in the continued decrease in the level of support for a permanent status agreement along the lines of the Clinton Parameters and the Geneva Initiative. This decrease was first detected in the aftermath of the Sharon’s unilateral disengagement from the Gaza Strip.  

(1) Prisoners’ Document and Referendum

• 74% support the National Conciliation Document and 23% oppose it
• Support for the document’s articles ranges between 62% and 85%
• But support for holding a referendum does not exceed 53% while opposition reaches 43%
• Despite support for the substance of the document, only 47% would actually vote for it if a referendum is to be held and 44% would vote against it
• If Hamas rejects the document after it was approved in a referendum, 65% would support taking steps against it
• If President Abbas refuses the formation of a national unity government based on Hamas’ program after the document was rejected in a referendum, 39% would call for his resignation

Findings show that the overwhelming majority of Palestinians (74%) supports the national conciliation document, also known as the prisoners’ document, as one package and 23% oppose it. Support for the main items of the document ranges between 62% and 85% and opposition ranges between 13% and 34%. The greatest support (85%) goes to the three items dealing with: goal of establishing an independent Palestinians state in the areas occupied in 1967 with Arab East Jerusalem as its capital, right of return, and freeing of prisoners in accordance with international legitimacy, Hamas and Islamic Jihad would join the PLO based on proportional representation, a national unity government based on the national conciliation document and a joint program would be  established with the participation of Fateh and Hamas. Slightly less support (73%) goes to the item that concentrate resistance to Israeli occupation to areas occupied since 1967, 70% support the item that calls for the acceptance of international and Arab legitimacy, 69% support the item that asserts that the PLO is the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people wherever they are located, and 62% support the item that asserts that Negotiations with Israel is the responsibility of the PLO and the president of the PA and agreements reached should be submitted to a vote in the PLO National Council or to a referendum.

But support for the conduct of a referendum on the prisoners’ document is much less than the support for the document itself with 53% in favor and 43% opposed. Moreover, despite the overwhelming support for the prisoners’ document, if the referendum is to take place today, only 47% would vote in favor of it and 44% would vote against it. 9% remain undecided. Only 56% agrees that PA president Mahmud Abbas has the right to call for a referendum on the prisoners’ document and 38% do not agree. And if Hamas called for a boycott of the referendum, 44% would boycott it and 50% would participate in it.

If the referendum was conducted and a majority approved the document, 67% believe that the Hamas government would still reject the document and 23% believe it would accept it. If the Hamas government rejects the document after a majority voted in favor of it in the referendum, 65% would support the taking of steps against it such as reducing its powers and jurisdiction (17%), dismissal of the government and the formation of an emergency government (14%), or the dismissal of government and the dissolution of the parliament and the holding of new elections (33%)

If the referendum was conducted and a majority rejected the document, 60% believe that PA president and Fateh would not accept Hamas’ program and would not form a national unity government based on that program, but 31% believe they would do so. If PA president and Fateh refuse to form a national unity government based on Hamas’ program after a majority rejected the prisoners’ document in the referendum, 61% would in this case support either the reduction of the powers and responsibilities of the president (22%) or his resignation (39%). 

(2) Peace Process and support for Violence

• 61% would support and 36% would oppose a mutual recognition of identity after reaching a political settlement and the resolution of all issues of the conflict
• 52% support and 43% oppose the Quartet Road Map and 58% support collection of arms from armed factions today
• 71% would support reconciliation between the two peoples after reaching a peace agreement and the establishment of a Palestinian state
• But 49% believe that reconciliation will never be possible and only 13% expect the two sides to return to negotiations and violence to stop 
• 70% believe that Hamas should negotiate with Israel and 26% believe it should not
• Significant increase in the level of support for violence against Israeli civilians

A majority of 61% agrees and 36% disagree with the proposal that after reaching a permanent agreement to all issues of the conflict with Israel, there would be a mutual recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people. Only 54% of the Palestinians however believe that a majority of Palestinians supports such a proposal and 34% think a majority opposes it.

A majority of 52% supports and 43% oppose the Road Map. In this context, 58%, the highest since the Road Map became public, support and 39% oppose collection of arms from Palestinian armed factions as mandated by the Road Map. Moreover, if the collection of arms were restricted to the Gaza Strip, support would increase to 70% and opposition would drop to 27%. Support for the current ceasefire, another requirement of the Road Map, reaches 71% and opposition 27%.

When a permanent status agreement is reached and a Palestinian state is established and recognized by Israel, 71% would support reconciliation between the two peoples and 27% would oppose it. From among various reconciliation steps, 85% would support open border to free movement of people and goods, 74% would support the creation of joint economic institutions and ventures, 37% would support the creation of joint political institutions designed eventually to lead to a confederation between the two states, 33% would support taking legal measures against incitement against Israelis, and 10% would support adopting a school curriculum that recognizes Israel and teaches school children not to demand return of all Palestine to the Palestinians. At the personal level, 32% would under conditions of peace invite an Israeli colleague to visit in their homes and a similar percentage would visit an Israeli colleague in his or her home.

After reaching a peace agreement and the establishment of a Palestinian state, belief that reconciliation between the two peoples will be achieved within the next few years or the next generation stands at 26% while 49% believe that reconciliation is not possible ever. Moreover, 51% believe that a political settlement with Israel is impossible while only 23% believe that such a settlement is possible within the next few years or the next generation.

With regard to short term expectations, only 13% expect the two sides to go back to negotiations and that armed confrontations would stop. On the other hand 39% believe that armed confrontations will not stop and the two sides will not return to negotiations. 38% believe that the two sides will return to negotiations but some armed confrontations will continue.

A majority of 70% thinks that if Israel agrees to enter peace negotiation with Hamas, the Islamist group should agree to do so and 26% think that it should not. In March, 75% said Hamas should enter peace negotiations with Israel if it agrees to do so. Despite this, two thirds in this poll believe that Hamas should not accept international demands regarding recognition of Israel as a precondition for continued donor support for the Palestinian Authority and 30% believe it should. Belief that Hamas should accept international demands reached 37% and belief that it should not reached 59% last March.

Support for armed attacks against Israeli civilians inside Israel continues to rise. Today 56% support it and 42% oppose it. Support for such attacks stood at 52% last March and 40% last December while opposition stood at 45% and 58% respectively. Similarly, findings show that support for the bombing attack that took place last April stood at 69% and opposition at 27%. Support in September 2005 for the last suicide attack before the one in April, the one that took place in August 2005, stood at 37% and opposition at 56%. It is worth mentioning that this poll was conducted during the period in which Israeli shelling of the Gaza Strip led to a high number of casualties among Palestinian civilians at a Gaza beach and in populated areas.  But while findings show a significant increase in support for violence against Israelis based on emotional drivers, a significant drop has been registered in this poll in the percentage of those who believe that armed confrontations have helped Palestinians achieve national rights in ways that negotiations could not from 69% last March to 54% in this poll.  

(3) Permanent Status Agreement

• Support for a permanent status agreement along the lines of the Clinton Parameters, the Taba Talks, and the Geneva Initiative continues to drop compared to the situation 6 months and 18 months ago: 44% support this agreement today and 53% oppose it
• A majority of 54% supports the compromise on permanent borders and 58% support the item on end of conflict
• Support for the compromise on refugees reaches 41% and Jerusalem 35%
• Support for the item on creating a state without an army reaches 25% and the item on Israeli use of Palestinian airspace and control of two early warning stations in Palestinian territories reaches 40%

Support for a package of a permanent status deal similar in various degrees to the Clinton Parameters, the Taba negotiations, and the Geneva Initiative reaches 44% and opposition 53%. Support for this solution stood at 54% in December 2004 but went down to 46% one year later in December 2005. 43% of the Palestinians believe that a majority of Palestinians supports this solution and 44% believe a majority opposes it. Moreover, 39% of the Palestinians believe that a majority of Israelis supports this solution and 46% believe that a majority of Israelis opposes it.

Support for the item on final borders, which would be based on the 1967 lines except for about 3% of the West Bank which would be exchanged with an Israeli territory of equal size, reaches 54%. Support for this item stood at 63% in December 2004 and 55% in December 2005.

Support for the item on refugees, which would be based on UNGA resolution 194 while giving refugees five different options for permanent residency with return to Israel being subject to Israeli decision, reaches 41%. Support for this item stood at 46% in December 2004 and 40% in December 2005. 

Support for the item on Jerusalem, which would make East Jerusalem capital of the Palestinian state but would put Jewish settlements in East Jerusalem under Israeli sovereignty, reaches 35%. Support for this item stood at 44% in December 2004 and 33% in December 2005.

Support for the item on the establishment of a Palestinian state that has no army but with an international force deployed in it reaches 25%. Support for this item stood at 27% in December 2004 and 20% in December 2005. 

Support for the item on security arrangements, which would allow Israel to use Palestinian airspace and maintain two early warning stations in Palestinian territories, reaches 40%. Support for this item stood at 53% in December 2004 and 43% in December 2005.

Support for the item on ending the conflict once the permanent status agreement is implemented, which would allow neither side to make further claims and would require both sides to acknowledge that Palestine and Israel are the homelands of their peoples, reaches 58%. Support for this item stood at 69% in December 2004 and 64% in December 2005. 

(4) Domestic Balance of Power and Other Domestic Issues

• If new parliamentary elections are held today, Fateh and Hamas would receive 39% each; 13% are undecided
• Satisfaction with the performance of president Abbas drops from 61% to 53% in three months
• Poverty and unemployment is the most important problem confronting Palestinians according to 33% followed by the practices of Israeli occupation according to 26%
• 86% believe that there is corruption in the PA and 82% say they lack personal safety and security

About five months after the parliamentary elections, the gap between Fateh and Hamas narrows to zero. If new elections are held today Fateh’s list would receive the support of 39%, Change and Reform 39%, and all other lists 9%. 13% remain undecided. Three months ago, the gap between Fateh and Hamas stood at 8 percentage points in favor of Hamas with 47% voting for Change and Reform and 39% for Fateh.

Satisfaction with the performance of Mahmud Abbas drops from 61% last March to 53% in this poll. If new elections are held, 30% say they would vote for Abbas, 14% for current prime minister Ismail Haniyeh, 4% for Marwan Barghouti, and 2% each for Mahmud Zahhar, Mustafa Barghouti, and Khalid Misha’al. 38% say they do not know to whom they would give their vote. In a vote for a vice president, the percentage of undecided is 49% while 8% say it will vote for Ismail Haniyeh, 7% for Mahmud Zahhar, 6% for Dahlan, 5% for Marwan Barghouti, 3% for Saeb Erikat, and 2% each for Farouq Qaddumi and Mustafa Barghouti. The two questions on vote intentions were open questions, with no list of names provided.

The largest percentage of Palestinians, 33%, puts poverty and unemployment on top of Palestinian problems today followed by continuation of the Israeli occupation (26%), spread of corruption and lack of reforms (22%), and finally internal anarchy (17%). Last March, the percentage of those who selected poverty and corruption reached 44% and internal anarchy 7%.

Percentage of those who believe that corruption exists in the PA stands at 86% while the percentage of those who believe that corruption will increase or remain the same in the future stands at 51%. Last March, percentage of those who believe that corruption will stay the same or increase in the future stood at only 29%.

Percentage of those who say their personal security and safety are assured stands at 18% while those who say they lack them stand at 82%. Last March, percentage of those who said their safety and security are assured stood at 25%. In this context, 48% support and an identical percentage oppose the deployment of the paramilitary unit established by the minister of interior in the Gaza Strip. A larger percentage (64%) opposes, and 32% support the deployment of a similar force established by Fateh in the cities of Jenin and Tulkarm. A majority of 62% blames both Fateh and Hamas for the internal shooting incidents in the Gaza Strip in which armed men and civilians were killed while 15% blame Fateh, 11% blame Hamas, and 9% blame neither. The overwhelming majority (86%) supports the integration of the members of the armed groups belonging to Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Fateh into the PA security services while 13% oppose that.

Positive evaluation of Palestinian democracy drops from 34% last March to 28% in this poll.

Support for the various factions among the total population, not just those intending to vote, shows equal support for Fateh (34%) and Hamas (33%). But support for all the Islamists reaches 37% and support for all other factions stands at 8%. 21% say they do not support any of the existing factions.....Full Report

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 27-30 June 2019. The period before the conduct of the poll witnessed several developments including the formation of a new government led by Mohammad Shtayyeh, the intensification of the PA financial crisis as the PA was unable to provide full salary payment to its public sector, and the leaking of documents indicating illegal salary hikes for ministers by the previous government. It also witnessed the continued failure of reconciliation talks between Fatah and Hamas and the inability of Israel and Hamas to reach a long term hudna or cessation of violence. Jifna, a predominantly Christian town in the West Bank, came under attack from some Palestinian Muslims who had quarreled earlier with one of its residents. Despite the personal nature of the attack, it nonetheless generated concerns about Muslim-Christian tensions. In Israel, the right wing won the elections but could not form a government leading to the dissolution of the new parliament with new snap elections called for in September. This Israeli development led the Trump Administration to postpone the release of its long-awaited peace deal, the so-call “Deal of the Century.” This was followed by the holding of an economic workshop in Bahrain in which the US Administration unveiled the economic side of its peace plan. Finally, tensions escalated in the region after Iran downed a US unmanned drone, a further threat to the region as concerns grow about a possible war. This press release addresses many of these issues and covers other matters such as Palestinian parliamentary and presidential elections, general conditions in the Palestinian territories, the peace process and the future possible directions for Palestinians in the absence of a viable peace process. Total size of the sample is 1200 adults interviewed face to face in 120 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is +/-3%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel. 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

Main Findings:

Findings of the second quarter of 2019 show a widespread rejection of the US Administration, the “Deal of the Century,” and the Bahrain workshop: Ninety percent say that they do not believe or trust the US administration; about 80% supported the PA decision to boycott the Bahrain workshop; three quarters want the PA to reject the Trump peace plan when released; and more than three quarters believe that the US economic plan will not bring them economic prosperity. Similarly, an overwhelming majority reject the participation of Arab countries, like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, in the Bahrain workshop and 80% view that participation as an abandonment of the Palestinian cause. 

Findings also show that half of the public continues to oppose the two-state solution, a solution which is viewed by the majority as impractical or infeasible due to West Bank settlement expansion. The public is divided into three groups in its assessment of the most effective means of ending the Israeli occupation: armed action comes first followed by negotiations and then popular nonviolent resistance. Findings show that the majority expects the future Israeli government, that will be formed after the upcoming elections, to annex settlement areas in the West Bank, wage war against the Gaza Strip, and take measures that would bring about PA collapse.

On internal matters, the public is not yet willing to give the Shtayyeh government a passing grade, as most view its performance similar or worse than that of the previous government while a small number views positively that performance. Similarly, findings show that despite public support for the PA decision to refuse to accept the Israeli transfer of partial custom revenues, the majority is worried that this decision could lead to PA collapse. A large majority, more than two-thirds, views the sudden discovery that the former government has illegally increased the salaries of its ministers as an indication that PA corruption is deep rooted while only a quarter believes that PA corruption is limited and subject to accountability.

The majority of the public remains pessimistic about the prospects for reconciliation. A majority is opposed to those preconditions imposed on reconciliation by Fatah, i.e., the “one gun” demand, and Hamas, i.e., the demand to keep the “resistance arms.” Nonetheless, two thirds of those who oppose these two preconditions reject Abbas’s demand to disarm Hamas. Those who support preconditions are divided equally: one half sides with Hamas’s and the other with Fatah’s. As we found in previous polls, the overwhelming majority demands the immediate removal of sanctions imposed previously by Abbas against Hamas and the Gaza Strip.

Finally, findings show that the domestic balance of power remains largely stable compared to the first quarter. Fatah did manage to increase the gap in its popularity with Hamas slightly in its favor. But the gap in the vote for Abbas vs. Ismail Haniyyeh, in a presidential election, narrowed slightly in Haniyyeh’s favor. Moreover, the demand for Abbas’s resignation continues to decline despite the fact that it remains very high. The overwhelming majority of the public demands the holding of parliamentary and presidential elections and oppose elections restricted to the parliament.

(1) The Bahrain economic workshop and Trump peace plan:

• 79% support the PA decision to boycott the Bahrain workshop
• 76% do not expect, and 17% expect, the US economic plan to lead to economic prosperity
• 90% do not trust the US Administration; 6% trust it
• 80% view the Arab participation in the Bahrain workshop as an abandonment of the Palestinians
• In choosing between independence and economic prosperity, 83% select independence and 15% prosperity
• 85% think the Deal of the Century will not lead to end of occupation
• 75% want the Palestinian leadership to reject the Deal of the Century

An overwhelming majority of the Palestinians (79%) supports the PA decision to boycott the Bahrain economic workshop while 15% are opposed. Support for the boycott is higher in the West Bank (81%) compared to the Gaza Strip (74%), in villages/towns (89%) compared to refugee camps and cities (66% and 79% respectively), among those who are opposed to the peace process (85%) compared to those who support the peace process (78%), among holders of the BA degree (83%) compared to the illiterates (64%), and among supporters of Hamas (84%) compared to supporters of Fatah and third parties (78% and 75% respectively).

After describing the details of the economic part of the US peace plan, we asked public if it thinks the US Administration will succeed in implementing it: two thirds (68%) say it will not succeed and 22% say it will.  Similarly, the overwhelming majority of the public (76%) says that based on what it has heard about the outcome of the Bahrain workshop, it does not expect the US economic plan to lead to Palestinian prosperity; 17% do expect it to do that.  Moreover, an overwhelming majority of 90% indicates that it does not trust the US Administration when it says that the goal of the Bahrain workshop is to improve Palestinian economic conditions; only 6% trust the US Administration. Similarly, 80% say that the participation of Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan, in the Bahrain workshop signifies an Arab abandonment of the Palestinians while 12% believe the participation of these countries signifies support for the Palestinians.

When asked if it believes that the PA leadership will show willingness to accept the Trump peace plan in order to benefit from its economic dimension, about two thirds (65%) say it will not while 27% say it will.  When asked to choose between economic prosperity and independence, the overwhelming majority (83%) opts for independence; only 15% chose economic prosperity.  Can economic prosperity be achieved under Israeli occupation? 73% say it cannot, as restrictions imposed by the occupation impede prosperity, while 24% say that it is possible to have prosperity while still under occupation. 

When we shift to the political dimension of the Trump peace plan, the overwhelming majority (86%) says that based on what it has heard so far about the plan, it feels pessimistic about its content while only 9% express optimism.  We asked the public if it thinks acceptance of the Trump peace plan by the PA would lead to the end of the Israeli occupation of the West Bank: 85% say no; only 10% say yes it would. When asked if it thinks the Trump peace plan permits Israel to annex a large part of the West Bank, a large majority of 72% says it does and only 22% say it does not.  Almost three quarters (73%) believe that in response to Palestinian rejection of the Trump peace plan, the US will impose further sanctions on the Palestinians; 18% say it will amend its plan in case of Palestinian rejection. 

Nonetheless, three quarters believe that the Palestinian leadership should reject the US plan; 15% say it should accept it with reservations; and 4% believe it should accept it without reservation.  Moreover, a majority of 66% is opposed and 24% is not opposed to a resumption of dialogue between the Palestinian leadership and the Trump Administration. Official contacts between the PA and the US government were suspended by the PA after the US, in December 2017, recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.  The demand for the rejection of the Trump peace plan is higher in the West Bank (78%) compared to the Gaza Strip (71%), in villages/towns and cities (81% and 76% respectively) compared to refugee camps (63%), among males (78%) compared to females (72%), among the religious and the somewhat religious (78% and 76% respectively) compared to the unreligious (54%), among those opposed to the peace process (84%) compared to the supporters of the peace process (73%), among those whose age is 50 years and higher (79%) compared to those whose age is between 18 and 22 years (66%), among the non-refugees (78%) compared to refugees (71%), among the married (76%) compared to the unmarried (70%), and among Hamas supporters (82%) compared to supporters of Fatah and third parties (73% each).

(2) Presidential and parliamentary elections:

• 57% want the president to resign and 35% want him to stay in office
• In a contest between Abbas and Haniyyeh, the former receives 48% of the vote and the latter 42%
• In parliamentary elections, Fatah receives 39% of the vote, Hamas 30%, and all others combined 10%

Only 41% of the public expect elections, parliamentary or parliamentary and presidential, to take place in the Palestinian territories in the near future; 47% believe no elections will take place.  An overwhelming majority (71%) wants elections to be for both, a parliament and a president, while only 11% want parliamentary elections only. 13% do not want any elections. If elections were held for a parliament and a president, 73% want Hamas to participate and to allow them in the Gaza Strip while 21% say they do not want Hamas to participate or allow elections in the Gaza Strip. 

57% of the public want president Abbas to resign while 35% want him to remain in office. Three months ago, 60% said they want Abbas to resign. Demand for Abbas’ resignation stands at 49% in the West Bank and 71% in the Gaza Strip. Three months ago, demand for Abbas resignation stood at 55% in the West Bank and 68% in the Gaza Strip.  Level of satisfaction with the performance of president Abbas stands at 37% and dissatisfaction at 58%. Level of satisfaction with Abbas stands at 42% in the West Bank and 27% in the Gaza Strip. Three months ago, satisfaction with Abbas stood at 34% (40% in the West Bank and 24% in the Gaza Strip).  If new presidential elections were held today and only two were nominated, Mahmoud Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh, the former would receive 48% and the latter 42% of the vote (compared to 51% for Abbas and 41% for Haniyeh three months ago). In the Gaza Strip, Abbas receives 43% of the vote (compared to 47% three months ago) and Haniyeh receives 52% (compared to 51% three months ago). In the West Bank, Abbas receives 52% (compared to 55% three months ago) and Haniyeh 36% (compared to 33% three months ago). If the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, Barghouti receives 59% and Haniyeh 34%. 

In an open-ended question, we ask about potential Abbas successors: If president Abbas does not nominate himself in a new election, 27% prefer to see Marwan Barghouti replacing him, while 18% prefer Ismail Haniyeh. Mohammad Dahlan is preferred by 4% (1% in the West Bank and 11% in the Gaza Strip) and Khalid Mishal, Salam Fayyad, and Mustafa Barghouti are selected after him by 2% each.

If new legislative elections were held today with the participation of all factions, 67% say they would participate in such elections. Of those who would participate, 30% say they would vote for Hamas and 39% say they would vote for Fatah, 10% would vote for all other third parties combined, and 21% are undecided. Three months ago, vote for Hamas stood at 32% and Fatah at 39%. Vote for Hamas in the Gaza Strip stands today at 38% (compared to 39% three months ago) and for Fatah at 33% (compared to 32% three months ago). In the West Bank, vote for Hamas stands at 25% (compared to 26% three months ago) and Fatah at 43% (compared to 45% three months ago). 

(3) A new government led by Mohammad Shtayyeh:

• So far, evaluation of the performance of the Shtayyeh government is negative
• The majority expects the Shtayyeh government to fail in achieving reconciliation, conducting elections, and improving economic conditions

With more than two months passing since the formation of the Shtayyeh government, findings indicate that a majority, or a plurality, of the public views its performance as similar to that of the previous government in matters of security (53%), the economy (44%), the reunification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip (53%), the preparation to hold general elections (55%), and the protection of liberties and human rights (54%). But a percentage ranging between 45% and 24% indicates that it believes the performance to be worse than that of the previous government while a percentage ranging between 7% and 12% indicates that the performance of the Shtayyeh government is better than that of the previous government.

Responding to a question about expectations regarding the ability of the Shtayyeh government to make progress in reconciliation and reunification, 59% expects failure; only 28% expects success. In a similar question about the ability of the new government to organize legislative or legislative and presidential elections in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, a majority of 52% expects failure and 34% expects success.  In another question about the ability of the new government to improve economic conditions, a majority of 57% expects failure and 30% expects success.  The belief that the performance of the Shtayyeh government in the preparation for holding elections is worse than that of the previous government is higher  in the Gaza Strip (26%) compared to the West Bank (23%), in cities (26%) compared to villages/towns and refugee camps (18% and 22% respectively), among males (26%) compared to females (22%), among laborers (32%) compared to employees (20%), and among Hamas supporters (34%) compared to supporters of Fatah and third parties (19% and 18% respectively).   

Expectations that the Shtayyeh government will succeed in conducting parliamentary or parliamentary and presidential elections in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip are equal in the two areas (34% each) but higher in villages/towns (40%) compared to cities (32%), among supporters of the peace process (41%) compared to those opposed to the peace process (21%), among non-refugees (36%) compared to refugees (31%), among holders of BA degree (36%) compared to illiterates (26%), among students (42%) compared to laborers (31%), among those who work in the public sector (38%) compared to those who work in the private and non-governmental sector (33%), and among supporters of Fatah and third parties (51% and 40% respectively) compared to supporters of Hamas (25%).  

(4) Domestic conditions:

• 62% support, and 29% oppose, PA decision to refuse to accept a partial transfer of custom revenues
• 52% are worried, and 39% are not worried, that this decision could lead to PA collapse
• 80% believe there is corruption in the PA and 67% believe this corruption is deep-rooted in it
• 26% want to emigrate: 42% in the Gaza Strip and 18% in the West Bank

A majority of 62% supports and 29% oppose the PA decision to refuse to accept a partial transfer of custom revenues. However, a majority of 52% says that it is worried that this decision could lead to the collapse of the PA while 39% indicate that it could not. A majority of 65% believes that the new Israeli government that will be formed after the upcoming elections will continue to deduct money from the Palestinian custom revenues while 25% expect it to stop this practice. Support for the PA decision to refuse to accept a partial transfer of revenues is higher in the Gaza Strip (65%) compared to the West Bank (60%), among holders of BA degree (66%) compared to the illiterates (61%), among the professionals (73%) compared to laborers (53%), among those who work in the public sector (70%) compared to those who work in the private and non-governmental sector (60%), and among Fatah supporters (68%) compared to Hamas and third parties supporters (63% and 59% respectively).

Positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip stands at 5% and positive evaluation of conditions in the West Bank stands at 20%. Perception of safety and security in the Gaza Strip stands at 67%. In the West Bank perception of safety and security stands at 59%. Three months ago, perception of safety and security in the Gaza Strip stood at 64% and in the West Bank at 57%.  26% of the public say they want to emigrate due to political, security, and economic conditions. The percentage rises in the Gaza Strip to 42% and declines in the West Bank to 18%.  Only 40% of the West Bankers say that people can criticize the authority in their area without fear and 57% say that they cannot. Three months ago, 65% of West Bankers said they could not criticize the PA in the West Bank without fear. The public is divided over its assessment of the PA: 48% view it as a burden on the Palestinian people while 46% view it as an asset for the Palestinian people.

Perception of corruption in PA institutions stands at 80%. When asked about the measures taken by the previous government in illegally raising the salaries of its ministers, 67% indicate that they believe that this kind of corruption is deep rooted in the PA while only 25% think it is partial and subject to accountability; 4% think that there is no corruption in the PA.  The belief that PA corruption is deep-rooted is higher in the West Bank (70%) compared to the Gaza Strip (60%), in villages/towns (72%) compared to cities and refugee camps (66% and 67% respectively), among those who oppose the peace process (78%) compared to those who support the peace process (63%), among the illiterates (80%) compared to the holders of the BA degree (67%), among those who work in the private and non-governmental sector (69%) compared to those who work in the public sector (56%), and among Hamas supporters (79%) compared to supporters of Fatah and third parties (52% and 47% respectively).

Asked about the implications of the incident in the predominantly Christian town of Jifna in the West Bank, in which a group of Palestinians attacked the town, 69% indicated that they believe Palestinian Christian-Muslim relations are normal, as one would expect from the people who belong to one nation; but 24% thought relations between the two communities might be heading to greater tensions.  The percentage of those who believe that the relationship between Christians and Muslims are becoming more tense is greater in the Gaza Strip (27%) compared to the West Bank (22%), in cities (25%) compared to villages/towns (19%), among the unreligious (40%) compared to the religious and the somewhat religious (25% and 20% respectively), among those whose age is between 18 and 22 years (27%) compared to those whose is age is 50 years and above (20%), among the illiterates (29%) compared to the holders of BA degree (23%), among those who work in the private and non-governmental sector (26%) compared to those who work in the public sector (17%), and among those third parties and Hamas supporters (35% and 28% respectively) compared to Fatah supporters (23%).  

We asked the public about its viewership habits in the last two months. Findings indicate that Al Jazeera TV viewership remains the highest, standing at 21%, followed by Palestine TV (14%), Maan TV (13%), Al Aqsa TV (12%), Palestine TV (9%), and al Al Arabiya and al Mayadeen (4% each).  

(5) Reconciliation and the reconciliation government: 

• Only one third is optimistic about the chances for reconciliation
• A majority of 53% opposes the imposition of any preconditions to reconciliation
• 79% demand the removal of all sanctions imposed by the PA on Hamas and the Gaza Strip

33% are optimistic and 63% are pessimistic about the success of reconciliation. Three months ago, optimism stood at 30%. When asked about the preconditions imposed by Fatah (the demand for “one arm”) and Hamas (the demand for the preservation of the “arms of the resistance,”) on reconciliation and reunification, a majority of 53% of the public indicates that it opposes such preconditions and 38% indicate support. Among those who support the imposition of preconditions (i.e., the 38% of the public), the respondents are divided evenly between those who support Hamas’s precondition (42%) and those who supported Fatah’s (41%). However, among those who oppose the imposition of preconditions (i.e., the 53% of the public), the majority of the respondents (67%) indicates its opposition to disarming Hamas while only 29% express opposition to preserving party-affiliated armed groups alongside the PA security forces. From among those who are opposed to preconditions, opposition to disarming Gazan armed groups is higher in the West Bank (68%) compared to the Gaza Strip (62%), among those opposed to the peace process (76%) compared to those who support the peace process (63%), among those whose age is between 18 and 22 years (71%) compared to those whose age is 50 year and above (65%), and among supporters of Hamas and third parties (79% and 69% respectively) compared to Fatah supporters (56%).

Moreover, the overwhelming majority (79%) demands that the PA immediately lift all the measures taken against the Gaza Strip, such as public sector’s salary deductions and the reduction in access to electricity; only 17% say that such measures should be removed only after Hamas fully hands over control over the Strip to the PA government. A majority of 51% (down to 41% in the Gaza Strip) believes that the chances for a Hamas-Israel agreement on a long term hudna or cessation of violence are slim while 36% believe the chances are medium and only 8% believe the chances are high.

6) The peace process

• 47% support and 50% oppose the concept of the two-state solution
• To end occupation, 38% see armed action as most effective, 31% negotiations, and 23% popular non-violent resistance
• 62% support popular non-violent resistance, 47% support an armed intifada, 38% support dissolution of the PA, and 31% support an abandonment of the two-state solution in favor of a one-state solution
• 57% expect the right wing to win the upcoming Israeli elections and 59% expect the next Israeli government to annex settlements in the West Bank

Support for the concept of the two-state solution stands at 47% and opposition at 50%. No description or details were provided for the concept. Three months ago, support for the concept stood at 48%. 44% of the public believe that a majority of the Palestinians supports this solution and 48% believe that the majority opposes it.  Similarly, 48% support and 45% oppose the Arab Peace Initiative (API). Support for API is higher in the Gaza Strip (52%) compared to the West Bank (47%), in refugee camps and cities (55% and 50% respectively) compared to villages/towns (39%), among females (53%) compared to males (44%), among the somewhat religious (51%) compared to the religious (45%), among supporters of the peace process (58%) compared to those who oppose the peace process (26%), among those whose age is 50 years and above (51%) compared to those whose age is between 18 and 22 years (39%), among the illiterates (57%) compared to the holders of BA degree (44%), among housewives, professionals, and employees (54%, 48%, and 48%) compared to students (37%), among those who work in the public sector (56%) compared to those who work in the private and non-governmental sector (43%), and among supporters of Fatah and third parties (62% and 61% respectively) compared to Hamas supporters (33%).  

A majority of 56% believes that the two-state solution is no longer practical or feasible due to the expansion of Israeli settlements while 40% believe that the solution remains practical. Moreover, 71% believe that the chances for the creation of a Palestinian state alongside the state of Israel in the next five years are slim or nonexistence while 26% believe the chances to be medium or high.

The most preferred way out of the current status quo is “reaching a peace agreement with Israel” according to 36% of the public while 34% prefer waging “an armed struggle against the Israeli occupation.” Only 15% prefer “waging a non-violent resistance” and a minority of 10% prefers to keep the status quo. Three months ago, 39% said that they prefer reaching a peace agreement with Israel and 30% said they prefer waging an armed struggle.  The public is divided over the role of negotiations and armed struggle in the establishment of a Palestinian state next to the state of Israel: 38% think armed struggle is the most effective means; 35% think that negotiation is the most effective means; and 23% believe that non-violent resistance is the most effective. Three months ago, 37% said negotiation is the most effective means and 36% said armed struggle is the most effective means.  Similarly, when asked about the most effective means of ending the Israeli occupation, the public splits into three groups: 38% chose armed struggle, 31% negotiations, and 23% popular resistance.  The belief that armed action is more effective than negotiations or popular non-violent resistance in ending the Israeli occupation is higher in the Gaza Strip (46%) than the West Bank (33%), in refugee camps (43%) compared to villages/towns and cities (38% and 37% respectively), among males (43%) compared to females (33%), among the religious (43%) compared to the somewhat religious (34%), among those who are opposed to the peace process (66%) compared to the supporters of the peace process (28%), among the holders of the BA degree (40%) compared to the illiterates (35%), and among Hamas supporters (71%) compared to supporters of Fatah and third parties (24% and 26% respectively).

In light of the suspension of peace negotiations, Palestinians support various alternative directions: 62% support popular non-violent resistance; 47% support a return to an armed intifada; 38% support dissolving the PA; and 31% support abandoning the two-state solution and demanding the establishment of one state for Palestinians and Israelis. Three months ago, 47% said they prefer a return to armed intifada and 41% said they prefer to dissolve the PA.

A majority of 57% expects the Israeli right wing led by Netanyahu to win the upcoming Israeli elections and 18% expect the center-left led by Gantz to win the elections.  A majority of 59% expects the future Israeli government, that will be formed after the upcoming Israeli elections, to annex some West Bank settlements while 30% think the Israeli talk of annexation is merely an election campaign slogan. Similarly, 52% expect the future Israeli government to force the PA to collapse while 38% believe it will seek to maintain the PA. A majority of 56% believes the future Israeli government will wage a war against the Gaza Strip while 33% expects it to seek a long term hudna of cessation of violence with Hamas.

7) Most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems confronting Palestinians today:

• 44% think that the most vital goal should be the end of occupation and the establishment of a Palestinian state
• 32% think unemployment and poverty is the most serious problem confronting Palestinians today; 29% think it is occupation and settlements

44% believe that the first most vital Palestinian goal should be to end Israeli occupation in the areas occupied in 1967 and build a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital. By contrast, 33% believe the first most vital goal should be to obtain the right of return of refugees to their 1948 towns and villages, 13% believe that it should be to build a pious or moral individual and a religious society, one that applies all Islamic teachings, and 10% believe that the first and most vital goal should be to establish a democratic political system that respects freedoms and rights of Palestinians.

The most serious problem confronting Palestinian society today in the eyes of 32% of the public is poverty and unemployment while 29% say it is the continuation of occupation and settlement activities; 19% say it is the spread of corruption in public institutions; and 16% say it is the siege of the Gaza Strip and the closure of its crossings....Full report 

13-15 August 2009 

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 13 and 15 August 2009. The poll was conducted in the aftermath of the holding of Fateh’s Sixth Congress in Bethlehem and Hamas’s refusal to allow Fateh members to leave the Gaza Strip to participate in the Congress. The poll examines the following topics: domestic issues such as the balance of power, Fateh’s Sixth Congress, perceptions of corruption, safety and security, attitudes toward elections, confidence in the police, as well as the various issues of the peace process such as the perception of the Obama administration and views on permanent status. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%. For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or WalidLadadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

Main Findings:

Findings of the third quarter of 2009 show an increase in the popularity of Fateh and president Mahmud Abbas and a decline in the popularity of Hamas and Ismail Haniyeh, the dismissed prime minister. The rise in the popularity of Fateh and Abbas might in part be the result of Fateh’s success in holding its long awaited Sixth Congress and electing a new leadership. The decline in support for Hamas might in part be the result of its refusal to allow Fateh members in the Gaza Strip to travel to Bethlehem to participate in Fateh’s Sixth Congress. Findings show additional and perhaps deeper reasons for the change in the balance of power between Fateh and Hamas. For example, they show considerable improvement in public perception of personal and family security and safety in the West Bank and a noticeable decrease in public perception of the existence of corruption in PA institutions under Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad.  In this context, findings show some optimism about the future of Fateh in the aftermath of its Sixth Congress and about the ability of its newly elected leadership to fight corruption inside the movement and to deliver reconciliation with Hamas. But the public does not believe that the new leadership will be different from the previous one in its ability to work to end the Israeli occupation.

Findings also show public confusion regarding new presidential and parliamentary elections. A majority believes that reconciliation talks between Fateh and Hamas will fail. A majority also believes that PA president and parliament will lose their legitimacy next January when their terms end. Nonetheless, a wide majority opposes postponing the elections and a majority also opposes holding elections under the current status quo, with Haniyeh’s government supervising it in the Gaza Strip and Fayyad’s government supervising it in the West Bank, even if they were organized by a single unified election commission. Moreover, an overwhelming majority opposes holding separate elections in either the Gaza Strip, organized by theHaniyeh government, or in the West Bank, organized by the Fayyad government. In any case, findings show that the public has no confidence in the ability of the legislative and presidential elections to contribute to the re-unification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. An overwhelming majority believes that the two sides, Fateh and Hamas, or one of them, will reject the results of any new fair and free elections if those results were not in its favor.

Findings show an increase in the percentage of those who demand a stronger American intervention in the peace process compared to the situation about nine months ago, right after the Obama victory in the US presidential elections. They also show an increase in the level of optimism about the chances that the US intervention would help push the peace process forward along with an increase in support for the Arab Peace Initiative. But findings also show a decrease in the level of support for a permanent settlement along the lines of the Clinton Parameters and the Geneva Initiative. It is possible that the decrease represents a negative reaction to the various tough conditions attached by Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to his acceptance of the two-states solution. This decrease represents a continuation of the decline in support for this solution which we registered around the end of 2008 which might have occurred at that time as a reaction to the failure of the negotiations unleashed by the Annapolis Conference.

(1) Domestic Palestinian Conditions

• Increase in support for Abbas and a decrease in support for Haniyeh with the gap between the two increasing from 5 percentage points (49% vs. 44%) to 14 percentage points (52% vs. 38%).
• A similar increase is registered in the vote for Fateh against Hamas from 8 percentage points (41% vs. 33%) to 16 percentage points (44% vs. 28%).
• Significant improvement in the perception of personal and family safety and security; improvement is particularly noticeable in the West Bank where it has increased from 43% to 58% in one year.
• A decrease in the belief that corruption exists in Abbas-controlled PA institutions from 72% a year ago to 68% today.
• 60% believe that Abbas loses his legitimacy when his term ends next January if no new elections are held and 59% believe the PLC too will lose its legitimacy on that date if no new elections are held.
• Overwhelming majority (72%) opposes holding separate elections in the West Bank alone and an even higher percentage (79%) opposes separate elections in the Gaza Strip alone; 54% oppose unified West Bank-Gaza Strip elections under the current split. Moreover, 70% believe that Fateh and Hamas will reject the outcome of any free and fair elections if it was unfavorable to them. 60% oppose postponing elections.
• A majority of 58% believes that the Cairo dialogue will fail and only 12% believe the unity between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip will resume soon.
• After Fateh’s Sixth Congress, percentage of optimists about the future of Fateh is higher than percentage of pessimists.
• Among those who were subject to attack or robbery, majority does not submit complaints to the police; among those who submit complaints, overwhelming majority (73%) says it is not satisfied with the police performance.

Findings indicate an increase in the percentage of those who would vote for Mahmud Abbas as president of the PA from 49% three months ago to 52% in this poll and a decrease in the vote for Ismail Haniyeh from 44% to 38%. 9% remain undecided in this poll and only 60% say they would participate in those elections. However, if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, the former would receive 62% of the vote and the latter 31%. 7% remain undecided and rate of participation increases to 71%.  Findings also show an increase in the percentage of those who would vote for Fateh from 41% three months ago to 44% in this poll and a decrease in the percentage of those who would vote for Hamas from 33% to 28% during the same period. Vote for all other electoral lists reaches 11% and 17% remain undecided. Rate of election participation stands at 68%.  Most popular figures selected by the public as possible vice president are Marwan Barghouti (selected by 37% of the public), Ismail Haniyeh (21%), Mustafa Barghouti (9%), Salam Fayyad (7%), andSaeb Erekat (4%).

Findings indicate a significant improvement in public perception of personal and family safety and security in the West Bank, standing today at 58% compared to 43% one year ago, 35% two years ago, and 25% four years ago (just few months before the last parliamentary elections in January 2006). Findings also show some improvement in the perception of personal and family safety and security in the Gaza Strip, standing today at 63% compared to 54% one year ago, 49% two years ago, and 55% four years ago (immediately after the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and few months before the last parliamentary elections). Moreover, findings show a continued decline in the perception that corruption exists in PA institutions under the control of Abbas and Fayyad, standing today at 68% compared to 72% one year ago, 80% two years ago, and 87% four years ago (few months before the last parliamentary elections).

60% say PA president Abbas loses his legitimacy when his term ends next January if no new elections are organized and 30% say he does not. Similarly, 59% say the Palestinian Legislative Council loses its legitimacy next January when it too comes to the end of its term.  While an overwhelming majority (72%) opposes the holding of separate elections in the West Bank alone and a larger majority (79%) opposes holding separate elections in the Gaza Strip alone, and while a majority of 58% believes that the Fateh-Hamas dialogue in Cairo will fail-- and about one third believes that unity between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip will not be resumed and two entities will be established while 12% say unity will resume soon and a majority of 53% says unity will resume but only after a long time-- a majority of 54% opposes the holding of election in all Palestinian territories next January under the current status quo of political split (assuming one is possible) with the presence of two separate governments, one in the West Bank and one in the Gaza Strip. 41% support such elections. In the meanwhile, a majority of 60% opposes the postponement of elections for a year or more and 36% support it.  Support for conducting legislative and presidential elections jointly in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, but under the current conditions of political split, increases among women (44%) compared to men (37%), among supporters of the peace process (44%) compared those who oppose the peace process (32%), and among illiterates (60%) compared to holders of a BA degree (40%).

In addition to public confusion regarding elections, the public has no confidence in the ability of elections to contribute to national unification. 70% believe that both Fateh and Hamas, or one of them, will reject the results of a fair and free elections if these results favored its opponent. Only 22% say the two sides will accept those results. However, the overwhelming majority of the respondents (83%) say they themselves would accept the results of a fair and free election even if they favored those whom they did not vote for.

53% say they are worried that they or a member of their family would be hurt by other Palestinians, from Fateh or Hamas, and 46% say they are not worried. Respondents in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank are equally worried. Three months ago, respondents in the  Gaza Strip were more worried than respondents in the West Bank (65% to 50%) which means that the level of worry has dropped considerably in the Gaza Strip and increased slightly in the West Bank.

In the aftermath of Fateh’s Sixth Congress, 39% say Fateh will become stronger and more unified in the future and 22% say it will become weaker and more fragmented and 34% say it will remain unchanged. 40% say the newly elected Fateh leadership will be more able than the previous leadership in achieving reconciliation with Hamas and 22% say it will be less able to do so. Similarly, 43% say the new leadership will be more able than the pervious one to fight corruption within Fateh while 21% think the opposite. But only 27% say the new leadership will be more able to work toward ending occupation and 28% say it will be less able than the pervious leadership. Belief that Fateh will become stronger and more unified increases in the Gaza Strip (48%) compared to the West Bank (34%), among supporters of the peace process (47%) compared to those opposed to the peace process (16%), and among supporters of Fateh (72%) compared to supporters of Hamas (16%).

9% of the public say they have, and 91% say they have not, been victims of attacks or robbery by other Palestinians during the past year. Among those, 40% say they have submitted a complaint to the police and security services and 58% say they have not. 41% of those who did not submit a complaint say the reason they did not submit one is that they do not trust the police while 43% say the police can not do anything to help them and 11% say they did not want to make the issue public. 26% of those who did submit a complaint say they were satisfied with the police work in the investigation to uncover the circumstances of the crime while 73% say they were not satisfied. The percentage of those who submitted complaints is higher in the West Bank (52%) than in the Gaza Strip (25%). Among those who did not submit a complaint to the police, 57% in the Gaza Strip and 22% in the West Bank say the reason for this is the lack of trust in the police. The levels of satisfaction with the performance of the police among those who submitted a complaint stands at 21% in the Gaza Strip and 28% in the West Bank.

(2) Peace Process  

• 49% accept and 49% reject a mutual recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for Palestinian people after all issues of the conflict have been resolved.
• 69% believe that the chances for establishing an independent Palestinian state next to the state of Israel in the next five years are slim or non-existent
• Eight months after Obama became the president of the US, 64% say US policy favors Israel, 7% say it favors the Palestinians; but 61% want the US to play a stronger role in the peace process and 29% do not want the US to intervene in the peace process.
• If the US intervenes strongly in the peace process, 56% expect such intervention to lead to success and 26% expect it to fail to move the process forward.
• 64% support the Arab (or Saudi) Peace Initiative and 34% oppose it; 58% believe the Palestinian side should accept an American intervention to pressure both the Palestinians and the Israelis to accept and implement this initiative and 39% believe the Palestinians should reject such intervention.
• 38% support and 61% oppose a package containing the articles of a permanent status settlement along the lines of the Clinton parameters and the Geneva Initiative, but 45% believe the Palestinian side should accept an American intervention to pressure the two sides, the Israelis and the Palestinians, to accept and implement this solution.
• Only 35% believe that if the Arab countries offered confidence building measures to Israel, such measures would encourage it to offer concessions to Palestinians and 61% believe such Arab measures will have no impact.
• If it was shown that Arab confidence measures were needed to push Israel to offer concessions to the Palestinians, 41% agree and 56% disagree that Arabs should in this case adopt such confidence building measures.

Findings show conflicting trends among Palestinians regarding the peace process. For example, while support increases for the Arab peace initiative and while demand for a stronger American role in the peace process rises, support continues to drop for compromises entailed in a permanent settlement along the lines of the Clinton Parameters and the Geneva Initiative. Findings indicate continued even split regarding mutual recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people in return for recognition of Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people after resolving all issues of the conflict with 49% supporting it (compared to 50% in the last poll three months ago) and 49% opposing it. Findings also show continued pessimism about the chances for establishing an independent Palestinian state along side the state of Israel during the next five years with 69% believing that the chances are slim or nonexistence (compared to 69% three months ago) and 30% believing that the chances are medium to high.

Findings show rise in support for the Arab peace initiative from 57% in our last poll, three months ago, to 64% in this poll. Opposition to the initiative dropped from 40% to 34%. But support for a permanent settlement along the lines of the Clinton parameters and the Geneva initiative declines to 38%, with opposition standing at 61%. Support for this plan stood at 41% and opposition at 57% last December. As the table below indicates, support drops for five out of six items of the settlement. The table also show continued decline for the settlement, one that was recorded last December. Support for this permanent settlement had stabilized during the period between December 2005 and December 2007 after a big increase in December 2004.

Support for Clinton Parameters-Geneva Initiative Permanent Settlement 2003-2009

Findings show that 49% support and 50% oppose the item related to borders whereby Israel withdraws from all the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with the exception of some settlement areas in less than 3% of the West Bank that would be swapped with an equal amount of territory from Israel. They also show that 37% support and 61% oppose the item related to refugees whereby refugees would be given five choices for permanent resettlement that would include an unlimited return to the Palestinian state and a limited return to Israel while providing compensation to all. They also show that 31% support and 68% oppose the item related to Jerusalem whereby East Jerusalem would be the capital of the Palestinian state with Arab neighborhoods coming under Palestinian sovereignty and Jewish neighborhoods coming under Israeli sovereignty and the Old City (including al Haram al Sharif) would come under Palestinian sovereignty with the exception of the Jewish Quarter and the Wailing Wall that would come under Israeli sovereignty. Support for the item related to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state that would have no army, but would have a strong security force and would have a multinational force deployed in it to ensure its security and safety reaches 24% and opposition 76%. Findings also show that 34% support and 64% oppose the item related to security arrangements whereby the Palestinian state would have sovereignty over its land, water, and airspace, but Israel would have the right to use the Palestinian airspace for training purposes, and would maintain two early warning stations in the West Bank for 15 years. A multinational force would remain in the Palestinian state and in its border crossings for an indefinite period of time. The task of the multinational force would be to monitor the implementation of the agreement, and to monitor territorial borders and coast of the Palestinian state including the presence at its international crossings. Finally, 55% support and 44% oppose the compromise on ending the conflict that would state that when the permanent status agreement is fully implemented, it will mean the end of the conflict and no further claims will be made by either side.

Despite continued decline in support for the permanent settlement described above, findings show a rise in the demand for stronger American role in the peace process from 57% last December to 61% in this poll and a decrease in the opposition to such intervention from 35% to 29%. The increased support for an American intervention comes despite the fact that 64% believe that eight months after the election of Obama as the US president, US policy remains more supportive of Israel and only 7% believe it is more supportive of the Palestinians. The reason for this might be due to the increase in the percentage of those who believe that such an intervention would be successful in pushing the peace process forward from 49% in December 2008 to 56% in this poll, while expectations of failure dropped from 30% to 26%.

Findings also show that a majority of 58% believes that the Palestinian side should accept an American intervention to push the Israeli and Palestinian sides to accept and implement the Arab peace initiative while 39% believe it should reject it. Moreover, 45% believe that the Palestinian side should accept an American intervention to push the Israeli and Palestinian sides to accept and implement a permanent settlement along the lines of the Clinton Parameters and the Geneva Initiative as described above.

The poll asked also about possible Arab normalization of relations with Israel. Only 35% believe that if Arab countries were to take confidence building steps (such as allowing commercial relations) this would encourage Israel to make concessions to Palestinians and 61% think such steps would have no impact on Israel. If it was proven that such steps were indeed needed in order to push Israel to make concessions to Palestinians, 41% agree and 56% disagree that in this case Arab countries should take those steps. Support for taking such steps increases among supporters of the peace process (44%) compared to those opposed to the peace process (29%) and among supporters of Fateh (53%) compared to supporters of Hamas (35%)..... Full Report

This poll has been conducted in cooperation with the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung in Ramallah 

hese are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 13-16 March 2019. The period before the conduct of the fieldwork of the poll witnessed several developments including the dissolution of the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) by the PA president, the announcement that a new PLC, but not presidential, elections will take place in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip within six months, the selection of Mohammad Shtayyeh to be the next prime minister following the resignation of the Hamdallah government, and the eruption of demonstrations in the Gaza Strip against high cost of living conditions and their violent suppression by Hamas’ police and armed wing . The period also witnessed the implementation of Israel’s decision to deduct a small amount of the Palestinian custom revenues it transfers every month to the PA and the PA response refusing to accept any of these funds, a Palestinian-Israeli escalation in al-Aqsa Mosque in the aftermath of a Waqf decision to re-open Bab al Rahma (Gate of Mercy) area for Muslim prayer and an Israeli ban on prayer in that area, and the formation of a new Israeli electoral list representing the center in preparation for Israeli parliamentary elections which are scheduled to take place next month. Finally, the US Administration announced during this period its intentions to release its peace plan, known as the “Deal of the Century,” after the holding of the Israeli elections. This press release addresses many of these issues and covers other matters such as Palestinian parliamentary and presidential elections, general conditions in the Palestinian territories, the peace process and the future possible directions for Palestinians in the absence of a viable process. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is +/-3%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel. 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

Main Findings:

Findings of the first quarter of 2019  indicate a rise in support for the two-state solution, but the largest percentage remains opposed to this solution. Support for negotiations, as the most effective means of establishing a

Palestinian state rises while the belief that armed struggle is the most effective means drops. But distrust in the seriousness of the Trump Administration increases. Similarly, findings show a significant rise in the belief that the Trump plan will not include a Palestinian state, nor will it include a reference to East Jerusalem as a capital for the state, or an emphasis on the 1967 borders, or a call to a just solution to the refugee problem, or a call to end the Israeli occupation and the withdrawal of the Israeli army. Given all these doubts about the plan, about 80% demand that the PA leadership reject the American plan when made public.

Findings also show that about three quarters of the public demand the simultaneous holding of presidential and parliamentary elections in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. A similar percentage indicates its rejection of holding parliamentary elections if no presidential elections were held at the same time and if restricted to the West Bank. 60% would oppose elections, even if held in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, if restricted to a parliamentary vote.  If the PA manages to hold parliamentary elections only and only in the West Bank, less than 30% of West Bankers say they will participate in that vote.

Findings also show that if presidential elections are held today, Abbas would win against Hamas’ Haniyyeh. Three months ago, Haniyyeh was able to win against Abbas. Abbas’ recent confrontation with the Israeli government over payment to the families of prisoners and martyrs and the deduction from the Palestinian custom revenues might have contributed to the rise in his popularity. By contrast, Hamas’ violent suppression of the recent popular demonstrations in the Gaza Strip might have contributed to the decline in support for Haniyyeh. If parliamentary elections are held today, Fatah would win the largest share of the vote indicating a significant rise in its popularity compared to our findings three months ago. Support for Hamas on the other hand drops slightly compared to our findings three months ago. Vote for the two factions has probably been affected by the same factors that affected support for Abbas and Haniyyeh.

Findings indicate that the public is evenly divided over the selection of Shtayyeh as the next prime minister, one satisfied and the other dissatisfied with the selection. But the largest percentage believe a government led by Shtayyeh will not succeed in unifying the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, or in organizing elections, or in improving Palestinian economic conditions. Given the Israeli decision to deduct part of the custom revenues Israel transfers to the PA on monthly basis and the PA response by refusing to accept any of those funds, a large majority expresses pessimism about the ability of the PA to pay salaries to its public sector and a majority says that this development could lead to PA collapse.

(1) Presidential and parliamentary elections:

• 72% want simultaneous legislative and presidential elections and 74% are opposed to holding legislative elections in the West Bank only
• 54% say they will not participate in legislative election even if it is held in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and 62% of the West Bankers say they will not participate in legislative elections if restricted to the West Bank
• 64% are worried that domestic conditions could deteriorate toward conflict if the office of the presidency becomes vacant
• 60% want the president to resign and 35% want him to remain in office; but if new elections take place, in which Abbas and Ismail Haniyyeh participate, the former wins 51% of the vote and the latter wins 41%
• If new parliamentary elections were to take place today, Fatah would win 39% of the vote and Hamas 32%
• 54% view, and 42% do not view, the PLO as the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people

Only 43% of the public expect elections, parliamentary or parliamentary and presidential, to take place in the Palestinian territories in the near future; 46% believe no elections will take place. An overwhelming majority (72%) wants elections to be for both, a parliament and a president, while only 10% want parliamentary elections only. 13% do not want any elections. The belief that presidential and parliamentary elections will take place soon is stronger among those whose age is 50 years or higher (44%) compared to those whose age is between 18 and 22 years (39%), among women (45%) compared to men (41%), among residents of villages/towns (46%) compared to residents of refugee camps (41%), among those who ended elementary school only (56%) compared to those who finished their BA (37%), among those who work in the public sector (46%) compared to those who work in the private sector (41%), among the married (45%) compared to the unmarried (39%), among the religious (47%) compared to the somewhat religious and the non-religious (42% and 29% respectively), among supporters of the peace process (49%) compared to those who are opposed to the peace process (35%), and among supporters of Fatah (55%) compared to supporters of Hamas and third parties (44% and 36% respectively).

An overwhelming majority (72%) expects Israel to refuse to allow election to take place in East Jerusalem and 15% expect Israel to allow it. Similarly, 53% believe that Hamas will not allow election to take place in the Gaza Strip if such vote was restricted to parliamentary elections and 33% believe it will allow such election. If elections were for a parliament and a president, 66% want Hamas to participate and to allow them in the Gaza Strip while 26% say they do not want Hamas to participate or allow elections in the Gaza Strip.  But if elections were for a parliament only, 59% say they want Hamas to participate and to allow them in the Gaza Strip while 32% would oppose that.

About three quarters (74%) oppose and 19% support the holding of parliamentary elections only and only in the West Bank. Similarly, 61% oppose and 31% support the holding of parliamentary elections only even if they are to take place in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. 54% say they will not participate in West Bank-Gaza Strip elections if they were restricted to a parliamentary vote and 41% say they will participate in such elections. Willingness to participate in the elections, if restricted to the PLC but were held in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, is higher among those whose age is 50 years of higher (44%) compared to those whose age is between 18 and 22 years (37%), among men (47%) compared to women (35%), among residents of villages/towns (46%) compared to cities (40%), among holders of BA degree (41%) compared to those who finished elementary school (33%), among the religious (45%) compared to the somewhat religious and the non-religious (39% and 35% respectively), and among supporters of Fatah and supporters of Hamas (61% and 51% respectively) compared to supporters of third parties (41%).

Similarly, 62% say they will not participate in elections if they were parliamentary only and if they were to take place in the West Bank only; 29% say they will participate in such elections. Willingness among West Bankers to participate in the elections, if restricted to the PLC and were held in the West Bank only, is higher among men (30%) compared to women (27%), in refugee camps and villages/towns (38% and 36% respectively) compared to cities (25%), among those whose age is 50 years or higher (32%) compared to those whose age is between 18 and 22 years (24%), among the religious (32%) compared to the somewhat religious and the non-religious (28% and 18% respectively), among supporters of Fatah (50%) compared to supporters of Hamas and third parties (29% and 24% respectively).

If elections were parliamentary only and took place only in the West Bank but some of the members of the new parliament were from the Gaza Strip, only 50% say such a parliament would represent both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip while 34% say it would represent the West Bank only. In the Gaza Strip, the largest percentage (48%) say such a parliament would represent the West Bank only and 45% say it would represent both areas.

54% are dissatisfied with the dissolution of the PLC while 37% say they are satisfied. It is worth noting that three months ago, before the actual dissolution of the PLC, 47% said they would support its dissolution and 43% said they would oppose such a step.  Today, 53% view the dissolution of the PLC as illegal and unconstitutional while 33% view it as legal and constitutional.

64% are worried and 34% are not worried that domestic conditions would deteriorate in case the position of the president become vacant. But 47% believe that when the position of the president is vacant, Palestinian factions will be able to reach an agreement on conducting presidential elections in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip in order to elect a successor; 45% believe that the factions will not reach such an agreement. Despite this, 60% of the public want president Abbas to resign while 35% want him to remain in office. Three months ago, 64% said they want Abbas to resign. Demand for Abbas’ resignation stands at 55% in the West Bank and 68% in the Gaza Strip. Three months ago, demand for Abbas resignation stood at 55% in the West Bank and 77% in the Gaza Strip.

Level of satisfaction with the performance of president Abbas stands at 34% and dissatisfaction at 62%. Level of satisfaction with Abbas stands at 40% in the West Bank and 24% in the Gaza Strip. Three months ago, satisfaction with Abbas stood at 32% (38% in the West Bank and 23% in the Gaza Strip). If new presidential elections were held today and only two were nominated, Mahmoud Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh, the former would receive 51% and the latter 41% of the vote (compared to 42% for Abbas and 49% for Haniyeh three months ago). In the Gaza Strip, Abbas receives 47% of the vote (compared to 36% three months ago) and Haniyeh receives 51% (compared to 62% three months ago). In the West Bank, Abbas receives 55% (compared to 46% three months ago) and Haniyeh 33% (compared to 41% three months ago). If the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, Barghouti receives 64% and Haniyeh 33%. If president Abbas does not nominate himself in a new election, 35% prefer to see Marwan Barghouti replacing him, while 19% prefer Ismail Haniyeh. Mohammad Dahlan is preferred by 7% (2% in the West Bank and 16% in the Gaza Strip). Rami al Hamdallah is selected by 4%; Khalid Mishal, Saeb Erikat, and Mustafa Barghouti by 3% each, and Salam Fayyad by 2%.

If new legislative elections were held today with the participation of all factions, 70% say they would participate in such elections. Of those who would participate, 32% say they would vote for Hamas and 39% say they would vote for Fatah, 8% would vote for all other third parties combined, and 18% are undecided. Three months ago, vote for Hamas stood at 34% and Fatah at 35%. Vote for Hamas in the Gaza Strip stands today at 39% (compared to 39% three months ago) and for Fatah at 32% (compared to 31% three months ago). In the West Bank, vote for Hamas stands at 26% (compared to 29% three months ago) and Fatah at 45% (compared to 39% three months ago).

A majority of 54% view and 42% do not view the PLO as the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. It is worth noting that the belief that the PLO is the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people stood at 58% nine months ago and at 69% thirteen years ago.  The belief that the PLO is the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people is higher in the West Bank (56%) compared to the Gaza Strip (51%), among residents of villages/towns (60%) compared residents of cities and refugee camps (55% and 42% respectively), among non-refugees (58%) compared to refugees (49%), among those whose age is 50 years or higher (58%) compared to those whose age is between 18 and 22 years (50%), among the illiterates (67%) compared to those who hold a BA degree (58%), among those who work in the public sector (58%) compared to those who work in the private sector (53%), among the married (56%) compared o the unmarried (49%), among the somewhat religious (57%) compared to the religious (51%), among the supporters of the peace process (66%) compared to those who oppose the peace process (33%), and among supporters of Fatah (85%) compared to supporters of Hamas and third parties (30% and 49% respectively).   

9

(2) Mohammad Shtayyeh, a new prime minister:

• 38% are satisfied and 40% are dissatisfied with the selection of Mohammad Shtayyeh as the designated prime minister
• The largest percentage believes that a government headed by Shtayyeh will not succeed in reunifying the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, or holding elections in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, or improving the economic conditions

38% are satisfied and 40% are dissatisfied with the selection of Mohammad Shtayyeh as the next prime minister. In the Gaza Strip, dissatisfaction reaches 52%.  The largest percentage (48%) believes that a government led by Shtayyeh will not succeed in achieving reconciliation and unifying the West Bank and the Gaza Strip while 35% believe it will succeed.  Similarly, the largest percentage (44%) believes that a government led by Shtayyeh will not be able to organize legislative and presidential elections in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip while 40% think it will succeed.  Half of the public believes that a Shtayyeh government will not be able to improve economic conditions in the PA while 36% believe it will be able to do that.  Satisfaction with the selection of Shtayyeh is higher in the West Bank (41%) compared to the Gaza Strip (34%), among men (41%) compared to women (36%), in villages/towns (44%) compared to cities and refugee camps (37% and 36% respectively), among non-refugees (41%) compared to refugees (34%), among those whose age is 50 or above (40%) compared to those whose age is between 18 and 22 years (33%), among those who work in the public sector (49%) compared to those who work in the private sector (38%), among the somewhat religious (40%) compared to the religious and the non-religious (36% and 35% respectively), among supporters of the peace process (46%) compared to those who oppose the peace process (24%), and among supporters of Fatah (65%) compared to supporters of Hamas and third parties (18% and 34% respectively).

(3) Domestic conditions:

• 69% are worried that the PA will not be able to pay salaries and 54% are worried that it will collapse
• The largest percentage (37%) believes that Israel is responsible for the deteriorating conditions in the Gaza Strip, 25% blame the PA and the president, and 21% blame Hamas
• Perception of safety and security stands at 64% in the Gaza Strip and 57% in the West Bank; despite this, 43% of Gazans, compare to only 20% of West Bankers, say they want to emigrate
• 82% believe that corruption exists in PA institutions
• 47% view the PA as a burden on the Palestinian people and 47% view it as an asset

Now after Israel deducted part of the custom revenues it transfers to the PA and after the PA has refused to accept the incomplete transfer, an overwhelming majority (69%) is worried and 25% are not worried that the PA will not be able to pay salaries to its public sector. Moreover 54% are worried and 40% are not worried that the PA’s inability to pay salaries to its public sector will lead to PA collapse. The percentage of those who are worried is higher in the Gaza Strip (58%) compared to the West Bank (51%), among women (57%) compared to men (50%), in refugee camps and cities (55% and 54% respectively) compared to villages/towns (49%), among non-refugees (55%) compared to refugees (51%), among the illiterates (68%) compared to holders of BA degree (51%), among housewives and laborers (60% and 57% respectively) compared to professionals and students (39% and 48% respectively), and among supporters of third parties and supporters of Fatah (61% and 55% respectively) compared to supporters of Hamas (47%).

Positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip stands at 4% and positive evaluation of conditions in the West Bank stands at 20%.  In a close-ended question, we asked respondents to identify the party or side responsible for the worsening conditions in the Gaza Strip: Israel, Hamas, the PA and Abbas, Egypt, or others. The largest percentage (37%) blames Israel while 25% blame Abbas and the PA, 21% blame Hamas, 4% blame Egypt, and 9% blame others. Responses of West Bankers differ from those of Gazans: 41% of Gazans, compared to 16% of West Bankers, blame Abbas and the PA and 27% of Gazans, compared to 17% of West Bankers, blame Hamas.

Perception of safety and security in the Gaza Strip stands at 64%. In the West Bank perception of safety and security stands at 57%. Three months ago, perception of safety and security in the Gaza Strip stood at 55% and in the West Bank at 47%. Despite that, 29% of the public say they want to emigrate due to political, security, and economic conditions. The percentage rises in the Gaza Strip to 43% and declines in the West Bank to 20%.

Only 32% of the West Bankers say that people can criticize the authority in their area without fear and 65% say that they cannot. In the Gaza Strip, 41% say that people can criticize the authority in their area without fear and 53% believe that they cannot. Perception of corruption in PA institutions stands at 82%.  The public is divided over the assessment of the PA: 47% view it as a burden on the Palestinian people while 47% view it as an asset for the Palestinian people. The belief that the PA is an asset is higher in the West Bank (51%) compared to the Gaza Strip (41%), in cities and villages/towns (49% each) compared to refugee camps (37%), among those whose age is 50 years or higher (49%) compared to those whose age is between 18 and 22 years (43%), among laborers, housewives, and employees (53%, 49%, and 45% respectively) compared to students and professionals (38% and 41% respectively), among those who are married (49%) compared to the unmarried (42%), among the somewhat religious (50%) compared to the religious (43%) among supporters of the peace process (61%) compared to those who are opposed to the peace process (23%), and among supporters of Fatah (84%) compared to supporters of Hamas and third parties (21% and 42% respectively).

We asked the public about its viewership habits in the last two months. Findings indicate that Al Jazeera TV viewership remains the highest, standing at 18%, followed by Palestine and Al Aqsa TV (14% each), Maan TV and Palestine Today (at 12% each), Al Arabiya (at 6%) and al Mayadeen (at 5%).

(4) Reconciliation and the reconciliation government: 

• 67% are not optimistic and 30% are optimistic about the prospects of reconciliation
• 82% demand the ending of the sanctions imposed by the PA on the Gaza Strip

30% are optimistic and 67% are pessimistic about the success of reconciliation. Three months ago, optimism stood at 29%. The public is opposed to Abbas’ position that Hamas must fully hand over control over the Gaza Strip to the reconciliation government, including the ministries, the security sector, and the “arms:” only 38% agrees with Abbas’ demand but a majority of 58% disagrees. Three months ago, 34% said they agreed with Abbas. When the question of “arms” was further clarified by asking the public if it supports or opposes the continued existence of armed factional battalions in the Gaza Strip alongside the official PA security sector forces, 71% said that they prefer to keep the armed battalions in place and only 24% said that they oppose the continued existence of the armed battalions in the Gaza Strip. It is worth noting that on this matter, there are no major differences between the attitudes of the West Bankers and Gazans.  Moreover, an overwhelming majority (82%) demands that the PA immediately lift all the measures taken against the Gaza Strip, such as public sector’s salary deductions and the reduction in access to electricity; only 14% say that such measures should be removed only after Hamas fully hands over control over the Strip to the reconciliation government.

5) The peace process

• 48% support and 50% oppose the two-state solution; but 58% believe that the two-state solution is not practical or feasible due to settlement expansion
• The best means of establishing a Palestinian state is negotiation in the eyes of 37%, while 36% think it is armed struggle, and 22% think it is non-violent resistance
• 47% support a return to an armed intifada
• 64% believe that visits by Israeli officials to Arab countries are harmful to the efforts to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict while 8% think they are helpful
• 51% expect the right wing and Netanyahu to win the upcoming Israeli elections and 22% expect the center to win

Support for the concept of the two-state solution stands at 48% and opposition at 50%. No description or details were provided for the concept. Three months ago, support for the concept stood at 43%.  Yet, when we asked the public to choose between the two-state solution, the one-state solution, or any other third solution, 49% said they prefer the two-state solution, 17% said they prefer the one-state solution, and 23% preferred some other solution. It should be noted however that in this question we have defined the two-state solution to mean “a Palestinian state alongside Israel based on the 1967 borders and East Jerusalem as its capital.” The one-state solution was defined as “a state that includes Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip in which Palestinians and Israeli Jews enjoy equal rights in all matters.” Three months ago, support for the two-state solution stood at 45%, for the one state solution at 22%, and 23% preferred a third undefined alternative. 

The preference for the one-state solution over the others is higher in the West Bank (21%) compared to the Gaza Strip (12%), among non-refugees (20%) compared to refugees (13%), among the illiterates (29%) compared to holders of BA degree (13%), among the non-religious and the somewhat religious (27% and 20% respectively) compared to the religious (12%), among supporters of the peace process (21%) compared to those who are opposed to the peace process (13%), and among Fatah supporters (19%) compared to supporters of Hamas and third parties (9% and 14% respectively). 

A majority of 58% believes that the two-state solution is no longer practical or feasible due to the expansion of Israeli settlements while 37% believe that the solution remains practical. Moreover, 77% believe that the chances for the creation of a Palestinian state alongside the state of Israel in the next five years are slim or nonexistence while 21% believe the chances to be medium or high. The most preferred way out of the current status quo is “reaching a peace agreement with Israel” according to 39% of the public while 30% prefer waging “an armed struggle against the Israeli occupation.” Only 11% prefer “waging a non-violent resistance” and a minority of 17% prefers to keep the status quo. Three months ago, 34% said that they prefer reaching a peace agreement with Israel and 34% said they prefer waging an armed struggle.

Support for waging an armed struggle is higher in the Gaza Strip (38%) compared to the West Bank (25%), among residents of refugee camps (40%) compared to residents of cities and villages/towns (30% and 25% respectively), among refugees (33%) compared to non-refugees (28%), among those whose age is between 18 and 22 years (38%) compared to those whose age is 50 years or higher (26%), among those who hold a BA degree (29%) compared to the illiterates (13%), among students (46%) compared to farmers, housewives, laborers, and employees (8%, 26%, 31% and 31% respectively), among the non-married (37%) compared to the married (28%), among the religious (34%) compared to the somewhat religious (27%), among those who are opposed to the peace process (51%) compared to supporters of the peace process (19%), and among supporters of Hamas (52%) compared to supporters of Fatah and third parties (18% and 23%).

The public is divided over the role of negotiations and armed struggle in the establishment of a Palestinian state next to the state of Israel: 37% think that negotiation is the most effective means while 36% think armed struggle is the most effective means, while 22% believe that non-violent resistance is the most effective. Three months ago, 28% said negotiation is the most effective means and 44% said armed struggle is the most effective means.  In light of the suspension of peace negotiations, Palestinians support various alternative directions: 55% support popular non-violent resistance; 47% support a return to an armed intifada; 41% support dissolving the PA; and 31% support abandoning the two-state solution and demanding the establishment of one state for Palestinians and Israelis. Three months ago, 54% said they prefer a return to armed intifada and 47% said they prefer to dissolve the PA.

65% support and 31% oppose the PLO Central Council’s decision to stop security coordination with Israel. But 78% believe that the PA leadership and security services will not stop security coordination with Israel. More than three quarters (76%) believe that if Israel ban Muslim prayer at al Rahma Gate (Gate of Mercy) area, Palestinian protests will succeed, as the case was with the metal detector gates, in forcing Israel to allow such prayer; 21% believe Palestinian protests will not succeed this time. A majority 64% believe that visits of Israeli officials to Arab countries damage the chances for resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict; 8% believe the visits help to promote peace and 26% believe they neither help nor hurt conflict resolution. 

A slim majority of 51% expect the Israeli right wing led by Netanyahu to win the upcoming Israeli elections and 22% expect the center-left led by Gantz to win the elections. But three quarters believe that even if the center-left win the elections, conditions will stay as they are today or become worse; only 10% expect Palestinian-Israeli conditions to improve in that case. 

6) Trump’s Peace Plan:

• Between 78% and 84% believe that the Trump peace plan will not call for the creation of a Palestinian state, or for East Jerusalem to be its capital, or for borders to be based on the 1967 lines, or for a just solution to the refugees’ problem, or for the ending of occupation and the withdrawal of the Israeli army
• 79% believe that the PA leadership should reject the Trump plan and 14% believe it should accept it
• 64% oppose and 23% support the resumption of PA contacts with the US Administration  

An overwhelming majority (83%) believes that the Trump Administration is not serious about launching a new peace plan and 12% believe it is serious.  We asked the public about its expectations from the plan, if and when it is submitted to the parties. A large majority of 79% believes that if the US does indeed offer a peace plan, it will not call for the establishment of a Palestinian state next to the state of Israel; 15% believe it will. A similar percentage (81%) believes that the plan will not call for a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem; 14% believe it will. 78% believe the Trump plan will not call for the borders of the Palestinian state to be based on the lines of June 1967 with minor mutual land swaps; 17% believe it will. An overwhelming majority of 84% believes the plan will not call for a just solution to the refugee problem; 10% believe it will. Similarly, 84% believe the plan will not call for the ending of the Israeli occupation and the withdrawal of the Israeli army from the areas occupied in 1967; 11% believe it will. For all of the above, 79% believe that the Palestinian leadership should reject the US plan, if offered, and 14% believe it should accept it.

But if the Trump plan does indeed include all such items, such as a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, with borders based on the 1967 lines, a just solution to the refugees’ problem, and an Israeli army withdrawal from the territories occupied in 1967, a majority of 52% calls for rejecting it and 43% call for accepting it. Call for accepting the plan is higher in the Gaza Strip, standing at 55% while the call for rejecting it is higher in the West Bank, standing at 59%. Support for accepting the American plan if it contains all these Palestinian needs is also higher among men (46%) compared to women (40%), in refugee camps (48%) compared to villages/towns and cities (41% and 43% respectively), among refugees (47%) compared to non-refugees (41%), among holders of PA degree (49%) compared to the illiterates (35%), among those who work in the public sector (55%) compared to those who work in the private sector (41%), among supporters of the peace process (50%) compared to those who are opposed to the peace process (33%), and among supporters of Fatah and third parties (54% and 49% respectively) compared to supporters of Hamas (34%).

A majority of 64% is opposed and 23% is not opposed to a resumption of dialogue between the Palestinian leadership and the Trump Administration. Official contacts between the PA and the US government were suspended by the PA after the US recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Opposition to the resumption of dialogue with the US is higher in the West Bank (70%) compared to the Gaza Strip (54%), in villages/towns (71%) compared to cities and refugee camps (64% and 57% respectively), among non-refugees (66%) compared to refugees (62%), among those who are opposed to the peace process (75%) compared to supporters of the peace process (61%), and among supporters of Hamas and third parties (69% and 68% respectively) compared to supporters of Fatah (59%).

7-9 September 2005 

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between September 7-9, 2005. The poll deals with Palestinian conditions on the eve of the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, the future of the peace process after disengagement, voting intentions and considerations in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and domestic Palestinian conditions. Total size of the sample is 1368 adults interviewed face to face in the West Bank (892) and the Gaza Strip (476) in 120 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

Main Findings

Focus in this poll has been placed on Palestinian perception of the meaning of the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in the context of the implementation of the Israeli disengagement plan and public expectations of the day after with focus on the future of the peace process. The poll also focused on the upcoming Palestinian parliamentary elections in terms of voters’ intentions and behavior.

Three main findings emerge:

(1) The Palestinian public views the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip as victory for armed resistance to occupation; it gives Hamas most of the credit for this achievement.

(2) In the meanwhile, with the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip underway, public top priorities are shifting: focus is now placed on matters of reconstruction and state building such as economic conditions, corruption, and law and order.

(3) The change in priorities is weakening interest in armed resistance and increases demands for its cessation. Moreover, the change in the hierarchy of priorities in weakening the electoral appeal of Hamas and strengthening that of Fateh in anticipation of the upcoming parliamentary elections.

It is evident that the unilateral nature of the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip has generated conflicting dynamics: on the one hand, a greater appreciation of the role of violence, and thereby the need to keep the armed pressure on Israel and to protect the arms of the resisting groups; on the other hand, a greater optimism about the future and the critical and urgent need to begin the process of reconstruction and state building, and thereby the need to maintain the existing ceasefire and the consolidation of Fateh’s position.

(1) Prevailing Conditions on the Eve of Israeli Withdrawal from the Gaza Strip

• 84% view Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip as victory for armed resistance and 40% give Hamas most of the credit for that achievement
• But a majority of 62% opposes continued armed resistance from the Gaza Strip and 60% support collection of arms from armed factions in the Strip
• 77% support the continuation of the current ceasefire and 56% oppose (and 37%) support the suicide attack that took place in Beer Sheva in August
• Priorities of the public focus on reconstruction and 73% support the creation of a Palestinian state along the 1967 borders that would start in the Gaza Strip and gradually extends to the West Bank
• Optimistic expectations prevails, particularly in the Gaza Strip, but fears remain

Findings show significant increase in the percentage of those who see the Israeli withdrawal as victory for armed resistance from 72% in our last survey in June to 84% in this survey. The largest percentage (40%) gives Hamas most of the credit for this achievement while only 21% give the credit to the PA and 11% to Fateh. Belief that Hamas deserves most of the credit increases among women (44%) compared to men (36%), among holders of the preparatory certificate (47%) compared to holders of university degree (32%), among housewives (45%) compared to employees and farmers (29% each), among those would definitely refuse to buy a lottery ticket (45%) compared to those who would definitely agree to buy one (32%), among those working in the private sector (40%) compared to those working in the public sector (29%), among the married (42%) compared to the unmarried (33%), and among Hamas supporters (69%) compared to supporters of Fateh (24%).

Despite the high public appreciation for armed resistance and for Hamas, findings show a majority opposition to continued armed attacks. 62% oppose (and 35% support) continuation of armed attacks from the Gaza Strip after a full Israeli withdrawal from that area. Opposition to armed attacks from the Gaza Strip after the Israeli withdrawal is greater in Gaza than in the West Bank (65% and 60% respectively). Findings also show that that a majority of 77% supports the continuation of the current ceasefire while only 22% oppose its continuation. This attitude is reflected in the opposition of 56% (and support of 37%) to the suicide attack that took place in August 2005 in Beer Sheva. Opposition to armed attacks is also reflected in the majority support (60%) for collection of arms from armed factions in the Gaza Strip; 37% oppose such a step. Percentage of support for the Gaza collection of arms is equal in the Gaza Strip to that of the West Bank but it increases among those definitely wishing to buy lottery tickets (73%) compared to those definitely opposed to buying lottery tickets (46%) and among Fateh’s supporters (74%) compared to Hamas’ supporters (43%).

The high positive evaluation of the role of violence while simultaneously opposing its continuation reflects a shift in public priorities towards a focus on reconstruction where poverty and unemployment comes at the top of the public list of priorities (40%) followed by occupation and corruption (25% each) and internal anarchy (8%). In June 2005, these percentages stood at 34% for poverty and unemployment, 33% for occupation, 24% for corruption, and 8% for internal anarchy.

Similarly, findings show strong support (73%) for the establishment of a Palestinian state (with the 1967 lines as its borders) that would start in the Gaza Strip and gradually extends to the West Bank. The idea of a Gaza-first state receives identical support in the West Bank as in the Gaza Strip. But it finds greater support among those intending to vote for Fateh in the upcoming parliamentary elections (82%) compared to those intending to vote for Hamas (67%). It is important to point out that the question clearly identifies the borders of the state as those of the 1967, and therefore some or all respondents might have assumed that no further negotiations would be required to determine the final borders of the state. In other words, one should not assume that support for this Gaza-first state is automatically equivalent to support for the state with provisional borders referred to in the Road Map.

The Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip has created an optimistic atmosphere, particularly in the Gaza Strip. For example, findings show optimistic expectations regarding future improvement in the economic conditions among 64% of the public, progress in the peace process among 57%, links between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 57%, the view that the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip is the beginning of the end of the Israeli occupation among 56%, and the view that further withdrawals will take place in the West Bank in the future among 60%. But pessimism remains high, particularly in the West Bank, regarding the possibility of continued Israeli control over the Rafah crossing and thereby the transformation of the Gaza Strip into a big prison (among 57%) and the expectation that the Israeli withdrawal will be followed by internal infighting (among 60%). It is worth noting that the poll was conducted during the period in which Musa Arafat, security advisor to PA president, was assassinated in the Gaza Strip.

(2) Future of the Peace Process after Disengagement

• 69% support going to comprehensive final status negotiations and only 25% support a gradual interim solution
• Support for the Road Map plan stands at 57% and opposition at 40%
• If permanent status negotiations start with the Sharon government, only 30% expect that it would lead to an agreement while 68% believe that agreement is not possible
• But if a compromise is reached with the current Israeli leadership, 53% believe Sharon is strong enough to convince the Israeli people to accept it and 50% believe Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas is strong enough to convince the Palestinian people to accept it.
• 63% support (and 35% oppose) a two-state solution whereby the state of Israel is recognized as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine is recognized as the state for the Palestinian people
• Level of support for reconciliation between the two peoples after the establishment of a Palestinians state reaches 75% and opposition 24%

Findings show strong support (69%) for comprehensive final status negotiations with the aim of reaching a permanent status agreement rather than an interim or gradual solution which receives the support of only 25%. They also show that support for the Road Map remains unchanged at 57% and opposition at 40%. But support for final and comprehensive negotiations does not mean optimism about their outcome with the current Israeli government of Ariel Sharon. Indeed, 68% believe an agreement with Sharon is not possible while only 30% believe that such an agreement is possible. Nonetheless, if a compromise agreement is reached with the current Israeli leadership, 53% of the Palestinians believe thatSharon is strong enough to be able to convince the Israelis to accept it. Moreover, 50% of the Palestinians believe the Palestinian president, Mahmud Abbas, is strong enough to convince the Palestinians to accept it.

A compromise agreement acceptable to 63% of the Palestinians is one based on a mutual recognition of identity whereby a Palestinian state is established next to the state of Israel and all final status issues are resolved. Israel in this case, would be recognized as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people. Opposition to this compromise reaches 35%. (In December 2004, identical results regarding this compromise were obtained.) If a two-state solution is reached, 75% of the Palestinians would support reconciliation between the two peoples. Support for facets of reconciliation varies with 87% supporting open borders for labor and goods between the two states, 70% supporting joint economic ventures and institutions, 38% supporting enacting laws prohibiting incitement, 36% supporting joint political institutions aiming at creating a confederation between the two states, and 10% supporting text books that would recognize the state of Israel and does not call for the return of all Palestine to the Palestinians.

(3) Voting Intentions and Considerations in the Upcoming Legislative Elections

• 74% say they will participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections; 47% of the likely voters will vote for Fateh, 30% for Hamas, 11% for other groups, and 11% remain undecided
• Ability to fight corruption is the first top voting consideration followed by name of list or political party, ability to improve economic conditions, ability to reach a peace agreement with Israel, and ability to protect national unity.
• Hamas is the most able to fight corruption and Fateh is the most able to improve economic conditions, move the peace process forward, and protect national unity
• Mahmud Abbas is the preferred candidate for the presidency and Marwan Barghouti for the position of the vice president and the position of prime minister  

Findings show that 74% of the Palestinians will participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections in January 2006. Voting intentions among the likely participants indicate an increase of Fateh’s support from 44% last June to 47% in this poll and a drop in Hamas’ support from 33% to 30% during the same period. 11% will vote for other factions and groups and 11% remain undecided.   From among eight vital considerations in voting for election lists, # (1) is the ability to fight corruption receiving 24%, # (2) the name or affiliation of the list with 19%, # (3) ability to improve economic conditions with 15%, # (4) ability to reach a peace agreement with Israel with 14%, # (5) ability to maintain national unity with 10%, # (6) ability to enforce law and order with 8%, # (7) ability to protect refugee rights in negotiations with 6%, and finally # (8) ability to insure the continuation of the intifada with 4%.

Hamas is the most able to fight corruption (receiving 46% vs. 37% to Fateh) and to insure the continuation of the intifada (receiving 62% vs. 24% to Fateh). Fateh is perceived as the most able to improve the economy (receiving 46% vs. 31% for Hamas), to push the peace process forward (receiving 64% for Fateh vs. 21% for Hamas), to protect national unity (receiving 46% vs. 37% for Hamas), to enforce law and order (receiving 54% vs. 31% for Hamas) and to protect refugee rights (receiving 44% for Fateh and 37% for Hamas).

In a closed question, in a contest for the position of PA president between Mahmud Abbas (Fateh), Mahmud Zahhar (Hamas), and Mustafa Barghouti (others), Abbas comes first with 44% followed by Zahhar with 21% and Barghouti with 19%. In a closed question, in a contest over the position of vice president, Marwan Barghouti receives the greatest level of support with 24% followed by Mahmud Zahhar with 14%, Ismail Haniyyah with 13%, Mohammad Dahlan and Mustafa Barghouti with 9% each, Farouq Qaddoumi with 8%, and finally Ahmad Qurai and Saeb Erikat with 6% each. In a closed question, in a contest over the position of prime minister, Marwan Barghouti comes first with 30% followed by Zahhar with 22%, Mustafa Barghouti with 17%, and Qurai and Dahlan with 8% each. Public satisfaction with the performance of PA president Mahmud Abbas increases from 60% last June to 64% in this poll.

(4) Domestic Conditions and Political Sympathies

• 87% believe that corruption exists in PA institutions; among those, 61% believe that corruption will increase or remain the same in the future
• Only 36% say that their security and safety and that of their family is insured these days and 64% say it is not
• Positive evaluation of Palestinian democracy stands at 32%
• The popularity of Fateh stands at 39% and Hamas at 27% (compared to 41% and 30% respectively in June 2005)

Findings show that an overwhelming majority (87%) believes that corruption exists in PA institutions. A majority among those (61%) believes that this corruption will increase or remain the same in the future. Only 33% believe that corruption will decrease in the future. The percentage of those who believe corruption does not exist in the PA does not exceed 9%.

Findings also show that about two thirds (64%) believe that these days they and their families lack security and safety while only 36% say they now have security and safety. A clear difference exists between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, with more Gazans feeling safe and secure than West Bankers (55% to 25% respectively).

As for the status of democracy in the Palestinian areas, 32% (compared to 37% last June) give it a positive evaluation.

Popularity of Fateh stands today at 39% compared to 41% last June. Fateh’s popularity in the West Bank is almost identical to its popularity in the Gaza Strip (38%  and 40% respectively). Hamas’ popularity dropped from 30% to 27% during the same period. Hamas’ popularity is higher in the Gaza Strip (32%) compared to the West Bank (25%). ... Full Report

19-22 June 2003

These are the results of opinion poll # 8, conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) between 19-22 June 2003. The poll deals with the popularity of Abu Mazin and his government, support for the roadmap and for the recognition of  Israel as the state for the Jewish people, support for the ceasefire and ending the armed intifada, and finally evaluation of performance of Palestinian authorities, Arafat's popularity and political affiliation. The total sample size of this poll is 1318 from Palestinians 18 years and older, interviewed face-to-face, in the West Bank (834) and the Gaza Strip (484) in 120 locations. The margin of error is 3%.

MAIN RESULTS:

One of the main findings of this poll is the decline in the level of support for Abu Mazin and his government. The decline may be attributed to the prime minister's speech in the Aqaba summit and to the fact that little or no change on the ground has been seen by public since the appointment of Abu Mazin. Most of the decline has taken place in the Gaza Strip, where the majority is refugees, indicating the extent to which the Aqaba speech, where Abu Mazin neglected to restate the Palestinian position on the right of return, may have contributed to that decline.

Yet the decline in Abu Mazin's popularity does not indicate a drop in public support for the policies advocated by the prime minister, especially regarding the ceasefire and ending the armed intifada. To the contrary, the findings show an increased readiness to accept a mutual cessation of violence and a majority support for ending the armed intifada. Moreover, the results show a majority supporting a mutual recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people. This support was unexpected in light of the strong opposition voiced by the Palestinian leadership to such recognition during the preparation for the Aqaba summit. The recognition is even more astonishing in light of the fact that the majority of the Palestinians does not believe that a majority of Israelis support such mutual recognition.

Support for the ceasefire, however, seems dependent on the position of Hamas and the policies of Israel. An opposition by Hamas to the ceasefire can greatly reduce the level of support for the "Hudna." The poll shows that Hamas' support has witnessed a big increase during the last three months making it the most popular group in the Gaza Strip, ahead of Fateh. In particular, the popularity of Dr. Abdul Aziz Rantisi, one of the main leaders of Hamas, has suddenly increased. In addition to Hamas' position, continued Israeli assassinations, house demolitions and incursions could easily destroy the widespread public support for ending the armed intifada.

(1) The popularity of Abu Mazin and his government drops

• Support for the appointment of Abu Mazin as a prime minister drops from 61% in April to 52% in this poll
• Trust in Abu Mazin's government reaches 41% with 52% refusing to grant it confidence
• Drop in the level of confidence in the ability of Abu Mazin's government to carry out political reform from 43% last April to 38% in this poll, to fight corruption from 44% to 41%, to control the security situation from 39% to 35%. But confidence in its ability to return to negotiations with Israel remains the same (69%). Confidence in the government's ability to improve economic conditions increases from 50% to 56% during the same period.
• 36% believe that Arafat is more able than Abu Mazin to reach a political agreement with Israel while 21% believe that Abu Mazin is more able, and 37% believe the two have the same ability.

Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazin) failed during the first three months of his appointment to office to win the support of more Palestinians. To the contrary, the results show that he had lost the support of about 10% of the public during those months dropping from 61% last April to 52% in this poll. Even though the poll was conducted during the period of negotiations between the PA and Hamas, i.e., before reaching a ceasefire agreement, the loss of confidence in Abu Mazin and his government goes beyond their inability to control the security situation. More people today doubt the ability of Abu Mazin and his government to carry out political reforms or fight corruption with 43% and 44% respectively believing that the government has the ability to do so last April compared to 39% and 35% in this poll. Confidence in the ability of the government to go back to negotiations remains unchanged at 69%. But the poll shows that a larger percentage of Palestinians believe that Arafat is more able than Abu Mazin to reach a political agreement with Israel, while only 21% believe that Abu Mazin is more able, with 37% believing that the two have the same ability.

Support for Abu Mazin as prime minister increases in the West Bank (55%) compared to the Gaza Strip (46%). It is worth noting that last April, support for Abu Mazin in the Gaza Strip stood at 64%. Support for the prime minister increases also in towns and villages (57%) compared to refugee camps (44%), among the oldest (63%) compared to the youngest (49%), among the illiterates and those with elementary education (58% and 62%) compared to holders of BA degree (53%), among the retired (70%) compared to students (45%), and among supporters of Fateh (68%) compared to supporters of Hamas (34%).  Those who believe that Yasir Arafat is more able than Abu Mazin to reach a political agreement with Israel tend to be male, with a BA degree, from Fateh, from among farmers, merchants, professionals, and specialists, and come more from theGaza strip.  

(2) A majority support for the Roadmap and for recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people

• Support for the Roadmap reaches 56%, almost the same as last April when it stood at 55%.
• But support for the different elements of the plan varies: 70% support consolidation of the security services into three organizations; 56% for ending incitement against Israel, 41% for restoring pre-intifada Arab links with Israel, 36% for arresting individuals conducting violent attacks on Israelis, 30% for the establishment of a state with provisional borders before settling the refugees and Jerusalem issues, and 25% for cutting off funding for groups engaged in terror and violence against Israelis
• Nonetheless, a majority of 57% believe that Abu Mazin will stand by  Palestinian commitments as specified in the Roadmap, even though  only 34% are convinced that he will overcome opposition to the Roadmap from Hamas and others
• A small minority of 15% believes that Sharon will stand by Israel's commitments in the Roadmap, but 30% believe he will overcome opposition to the Roadmap from the settlers and the extreme right
• 48% believe that the US president is determined to move the peace process forward and to implement the roadmap, but only 40% believe that the Roadmap will lead to a political settlement with Israel
• 48% believe that democratic reforms facilitate the peace process, 21% believe they inhibit it, and 23% believe they do not facilitate or inhibit it
• A majority of 52% agree and 46% disagree with the proposal calling for mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people after the establishment of a Palestinian state and the settlement of all issues of the conflict
• But only 40% believe, and 53% does not believe, that a majority of Palestinians support such recognition, while 37% believe that a majority of Israelis supports that recognition
• A majority of 71% supports reconciliation between the two peoples after reaching a peace agreement and the establishment of a Palestinian state recognized by Israel

Support for the roadmap (56%) remains unchanged compared to last April. But while support for the Palestinian obligations to consolidate the security services and for stopping incitement against Israel remains high (70% and 56% respectively), it drops when it comes to other obligations such as making arrests (36%), cutting funding to groups that support or commit violence and terror (25%). Moreover, support for a state with provisional borders before solving the issues of refugees and Jerusalem did not receive more than 30% support.  It is possible that the questionnaire's use of specific terms, such as "terrorism" and "groups participating in terrorism" (taken from the articles of the roadmap) may have angered respondents leading to the negative responses. The lack of reference in the question to the two-year duration for the state with provisional borders (a time limit envisaged in the roadmap) may have reduced the level of support for that item in the roadmap as well.

The poll shows also that a majority (57%) believes that Abu Mazin will stand by Palestinian commitments in the roadmap, but only a minority of 34% has confidence in his ability to overcome the opposition of Hamas and other groups. The Palestinian public however does not have much confidence in the intentions of Sharon with only 15% believing that he would stand by Israel's commitments. Trust in president Bush on the other hand is much higher with 48% believing that he is determined to move the peace process forward and to implement the roadmap. Despite that, only 40% believe the roadmap will lead to a political settlement between Israel and the Palestinians.

The findings show that a majority of Palestinians (52%) supports (and 46% oppose) a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the settlement of all issues of the conflict. But the lack of trust in the other side is evident here as well, with only 37% believing that a majority of Israelis accepts such mutual recognition. Despite this lack of confidence in the intentions of the Isrealis, a large majority (71%) supports reconciliation between the two peoples after reaching a peace agreement and the establishment of a Palestinian state recognized by Israel.

Support for mutual recognition for a state of the Jewish people and a state of the Palestinian people increases among the oldest (63%) compared to the youngest (38%), among the illiterates and those with elementary education (69% and 61% respectively) compared to holders of BA degree (46%), among the retired (75%) compared to students (36%), among those with the lowest income (45%) compared to those with the highest income (41%), and among supporters of Fateh (63%) compared to supporters of Hamas (45%).

(3) A majority support for cease-fire (Hudna) and for ending the armed Intifada

• A majority of 73% supports a "Hudna" with Israel for one year during which no arms would be used against the Israelis while Israel would stop using arms against the Palestinians. But a higher percentage (80%) supports a mutual cessation of violence (that is not limited in time). Last April, only 71% supported a mutual cessation of violence.
• If a mutual cessation of violence is arrived at, 50% support and 47% oppose taking measures by the Palestinian Authority to stop armed attacks against Israelis, and 76% believe that continued armed attacks in such a case would impede return to the peace process
• A majority of 52% believes that now that the PA has accepted the Roadmap, armed intifada and all military activities from both sides must stop. But only 18% expect that armed confrontations would stop and a return to negotiations would take place. On the other hand 56% expect return to negotiations while some armed confrontations would continue.
• 65% believe that armed confrontations have so far helped achieve Palestinian national rights in ways that negotiations could not
• 58% support Hamas' refusal to accept a ceasefire (asked before Hamas announced that it accepts the ceasefire), but 67% are concerned that such a position by Hamas and other opposition groups could lead to internal Palestinian conflict

The poll shows an increase in the level of support for mutual cessation of violence from 71% last April to 80% in this poll. Moreover, a majority of 73% supports a "Hudna" for one year. With mutual cessation of violence in place, a majority would support taking measures by the PA to prevent armed attacks against Israelis while 47% would oppose that. More than three quarters realize that if, in that case, violence continued, it could impede the return to the peace process. A majority of 52% supports stopping the armed intifada in light of the Palestinian acceptance of the roadmap. But only 18% expect complete cessation of armed confrontations.

Public support for the "Hudna" and the mutual cessation of violence is dependent on the position of Hamas and other opposition groups, with 58% supporting the positions of these groups if they choose to oppose the ceasefire. The public however is concerned that such opposition by Hamas could lead to internal Palestinian conflict.

Support for stopping the armed intifada increases among the illiterates (62%) compared to holders of BA degree (50%), among the retired (70%) compared to specialists (34%), and among supporters of Fateh (63%) compared to supporters of Hamas (38%).

(4) Evaluation of performance, Arafat's popularity, support for a vice president, and political affiliation

• Highest level of positive evaluation of performance goes to the opposition groups (68%) followed by president Yasir Arafat (66%), while only 37% positively evaluate Abu Mazin's performance. Positive evaluation of the PLC stands at 29% and the new government of Abu Mazin at 27%.
• A large majority of 84% believes that corruption exists in PA institutions and two-thirds of those believe that corruption will increase or remain the same in the future
• Arafat's popularity, as a president for the PA, remains unchanged at 35% while support for Ahmad Yasin (for the same office) increases from 15% last April to 18% in this poll
• In an open question (without giving any names to respondents) on selecting a vice president, Sa'eb Erikat comes on top with 8%, followed by Abu Mazin with 7%, Marwan Barghouti (5%), Haidar Abdul Shafi (4%), Abdul Aziz Rantisi and Mohammad Dahlan (3% each), and Ahmad Yasin, Farouq Qaddoumi and Hanan Ashrawi (2% each)
• But in a closed question (with a list of 8 names) Marwan Barghouti comes on top with 21%, followed by Sa'eb Erikat with 12%, Haidar Abdul Shafi and Ahmad Yasin (8% each), Hanan Ashrawi and Farouq Qaddoumi (5% each), Abu Mazin (3%), and Abu Ala' (1%)
• The popularity of Hamas increases from 17% last April to 22% in this poll, while support for Fateh remains unchanged at 26%.

Findings show that the public views positively the performance of the opposition groups and Yasir Arafat (68% and 66% respectively), while the positive evaluation of the performance of the Palestinian government, the Palestinian Legislative Council and Abu Mazin is much less (27%, 29%, and 37% respectively). Despite the positive evaluation of Arafat's performance, his popularity rating did not change compared to where it was last April (35%).

The poll examined the popularity of several candidates for the office of vice president by asking two questions, one open (without a list of candidates) and another closed (with a list of 8 names presented to respondents). The results varied. The open question shows Abu Mazin's popularity much higher than in the closed question (7% compared to 3%). On the other hand, the popularity of the following persons increased in the closed question compared to the open one: Marwan Barghouti from 5% to 21%, Sa'eb Erikat from 8% to 12%, Haidar Abdul Shafi from 4% to 8%, and Ahmad Yasin, Farouq Qaddoumi, and Hanan Ashrawi from 2% each to 8%, 5%, and 5% respectively. The open question revealed the popularity of two more persons: Abdul Aziz Rantisi and Mohammad Dahlan (3% each). The open question is asked once a year. The inconsistency in the results indicate a lack commitment on the part of the public to any particular candidate allowing name recognition, rather than serious considerations, to determine one's choice of candidates in the open question. 

Finally, the poll shows a big increase in the level of support for Hamas from 17% last April to 22% in this poll. Support for Fateh remained unchanged at 26%. The level of support for all Islamists combined stands at 31%, compared to 29% last April. The percentage of the nonaffiliated stood at 37% in this poll compared to 41% last April..... Full Report

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 22 and 25 June 2022. The period before the conduct of the poll witnessed several developments including several armed attacks by Palestinians against Israelis inside Israel, the Israeli army incursions into Jenin’s refugee camp, and the killing of al Jazeera journalists Shireen Abu Akleh by Israeli gunfire in one of the Jenin incursions.  Other developments included the organization of the Flag March by the Israeli right wing inside the Old City of East Jerusalem without ending up in an armed confrontation between Hamas and Israel as many had expected. Internally, a student body associated with Hamas was able to win the majority of seats in the Birzeit University student council elections, President Abbas transferred control of the secretariate of the Palestinian Legislative Council to the Speaker of the PLO National Council, and assigned to the PLO Executive Committee member from Fatah, Hussien al Sheikh, the responsibilities of the Committee’s secretariate. This press release addresses these issues and covers other matters such as the general conditions in the Palestinian territories, the peace process and future possible directions for Palestinians in the absence of a viable peace process. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is +/-3%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel. 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

Main Findings:

The results of the second quarter of 2022 show a significant change in the domestic balance of power in favor of Hamas and its leadership only three months after Fatah had managed to restore some of the popularity it had lost in the aftermath of the April 2021 cancellation of the legislative and presidential elections, the May 2021 war between Hamas and Israel, and the killing of the opposition figure Nizar Banat at the hands of the Palestinian security services.

Today, Hamas and Fatah enjoy almost the same level of public support, with the gap narrowing to one percentage point in favor of Hamas after it was six points in favor of Fatah in March 2022. It is noticeable that the drop in Fatah’s popularity has occurred in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, though the drop has been greater in the latter. Fatah’s declining popularity is evident in two other ways. For one, the gap in popularity between the head of Fatah, President Abbas, and the head of Hamas, Ismail Haniyyeh, has now reached 22 points in favor of Haniyyeh after it was only 16 points three months ago. Moreover, the demand for Abbas’ resignation, from the presidency of the Palestinian Authority (PA), has risen to over three quarters while those still in favor of Abbas have dwindled in size to less than one fifth of the public. Another indicator of Fatah’s decline can be seen when looking at the widening gap between those who think Hamas is the more deserving of representing and leading the Palestinian people compared to those who think “Fatah under Abbas” is more deserving than Hamas. Today, the gap stands at 10 percentage points in favor of Hamas compared to just two points in favor of Hamas three months ago.

Perhaps one of the main reasons behind the shift in the internal balance of power has been the rise of Hamas' role over the past few months in defending Jerusalem. Other reasons might have been the release by the PA of those Preventive Security men accused of killing Nizar Banat on bail, or because the vast majority of the public believes that the Palestinian government does not make an effort to mitigate the consequences of the rise in prices, or the objection of the majority of the public to President Abbas's internal decisions, such as the transfer of powers over the Secretariat of the Palestinian Legislative Council to the Speaker of the PLO National Council or the appointment  of PLO Executive Committee member Hussein al-Sheikh to serve as the head of the Secretariat of that Committee,.

In Palestinian-Israeli relations, the results for the second quarter indicate a significant decline in support for the two-state solution.  The results show one of the likely reasons for the decline: a significant increase in the belief that a two-state solution is no longer feasible or practical due to settlement expansion, rising to 70%. But the findings also indicate a similar decline in support for a one-state solution with equal rights for Jews and Palestinians, indicating a hardening of public attitudes similar to what we saw in mid-2021 in the aftermath of the Hamas-Israel war. Support for a return to an armed uprising is also rising to form a clear majority, reinforced by a broad support for the recent shootings inside Israel by individual Palestinians who did not belong to known forces and movements.  However, there are significant differences in the attitudes of Gazans compared to West Bankers, where the largest percentage of the latter remains opposed to armed attacks.

Increased Palestinian-Israeli clashes over the past three months may have contributed to this attitudinal shift regarding Palestinian-Israeli relations, starting with the Israeli Flag March, the repeated incursions into the Jenin camp, the killing of the very well-known and liked Al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, the crackdown by the Israeli police on the raising of the Palestinian flag, and the frequent confrontations between the Israeli police and the Palestinian worshippers at the Al-Aqsa Mosque; all might have led to a hardening of the Palestinian public attitudes.

However, it is worth noting that the percentage of those viewing positively the recent "confidence-building" measures between the PA and Israel has risen to about two-thirds. Moreover, despite the rising tension over al Aqsa Mosque, the majority continues to view the Palestinian-Israeli conflict as a national conflict, over land and sovereignty, rather than a religious conflict.

(1) Legislative and presidential elections:

• 71% say they support the holding of presidential and legislative elections in the Palestinian territories in the near future while 25% say they do not support that. Demand for elections stands at 80% in the Gaza Strip and 65% in the West Bank. However, a majority of 54%  believes no legislative or legislative and presidential elections will take place soon.
• If new presidential elections were held today and only two were nominated, Mahmoud Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh, only 49% would participate and from among those, Abbas would receive 33% and Haniyeh 55% of the votes (compared to 54% for Haniyeh and 38% for Abbas three months ago). In the Gaza Strip, Abbas receives 35% of the votes and Haniyeh receives 62%. In the West Bank, Abbas receives 31% and Haniyeh 50%. If the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, participation would increase to 66% and from among those, Barghouti receives 61% and Haniyeh 34%. If the competition is between Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh and Haniyyeh, participation rate would decrease to 47% and from among those, the former receives 26% and the latter 61%.
• If Abbas does not run for elections, the public prefers Marwan Barghouti to succeed him as the largest percentage (30%) selected him in an open-ended question, followed by Ismail Haniyyeh (16%), Mohammad Dahlan (6%), Yahya al Sinwar (4%), and Hussein al Sheikh (3%), and 34% said they do not know or have not decided. It is worth noting that this is the first time that al Sheikh’s name has been mentioned by the respondents in an open-ended question. This means that we will continue to ask about his standing as a successor in the next four quarterly poll. In an closed ended questions about succession, Marwan Barghouti is preferred by 39%, Haniyyeh by 19%, Dahlan by 6%, Sinwar by 5%, Khalid Mishal by 2%, and Mustafa Barghouti and Salam Fayyad by 1% each. Al Sheikh’s name was not among those listed in the closed ended question.
• Level of satisfaction with the performance of president Abbas stands at 23% and dissatisfaction at 73%. Level of satisfaction with Abbas stands at 23% in the West Bank and 22% in the Gaza Strip. Satisfaction with the performance of Abbas three months ago stood at 27% and dissatisfaction at 70%. Moreover, a vast majority of 77% of the public want president Abbas to resign while only 18% want him to remain in office. Three months ago, 73% said they want Abbas to resign. Demand for Abbas’ resignation stands at 72% in the West Bank and 84% in the Gaza Strip.
• If new legislative elections were held today with the participation of all factions that participated in the 2006 elections, 69% say they would participate. Of those who would participate, 36% say they will vote for Hamas and 35% say they will vote for Fatah, 7% will vote for all other third parties combined, and 20% are undecided. Three months ago, vote for Hamas stood at 36% and Fatah at 42%. Vote for Hamas in the Gaza Strip stands today at 43% (compared to 47% three months ago) and for Fatah at 32% (compared to 37% three months ago). In the West Bank, vote for Hamas stands at 30% (compared to 27% three months ago) and Fatah at 37% (compared to 47% three months ago).
• The largest percentage (33%) says Hamas is most deserving of representing and leading the Palestinian people while 23% think Fatah under president Abbas is the most deserving of representing and leading the Palestinians; 38% think neither side deserves such a role. Three months ago, 31% selected Hamas, 29% Fatah under Abbas, and 33% said neither side deserves such a role.

(2) Domestic conditions and satisfaction with the Shtayyeh government:

• A majority of 57% is opposed to President Abbas’ decision to transfer the responsibility over the Secretariate of the Palestinian Legislative Council to the Speaker of the PLO National Council; only 27% support Abbas’ decision.
• Similarly, a majority of 61% are opposed to Abbas’ decision to ask the PLO’s Executive Committee member from Fatah, Husein al Sheikh, to assume the responsibility over the secretariate of that Committee; only 23% support Abbas’ decision.
• In explaining the reasons for the electoral victory of the Hamas-affiliated student body at Birzeit University, the majority (59%) attributed it to students’ dissatisfaction with the performance of the PA while about one third (32%) said the victory came as a result in a shift in public opinion in favor of Hamas.
• The majority (57%) of the public says it was supportive of the teachers’ strike who were demanding better representational and associational rights from the government and led to a partial halt to the educational process in public schools; 31% say they were opposed. Support for the strike is higher in the West Bank compared to the Gaza Strip, 63% and 48% respectively.
• The vast majority (79%) says the Palestinian government is not doing enough to reduce prices, while 18% say it is doing so.
• Positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip stands at 8% and positive evaluation of conditions in the West Bank stands at 26%.
• Nonetheless, perception of safety and security in the Gaza Strip stands at 74% and in the West Bank at 48%.
• 26% of the public say they want to emigrate due to political, security, and economic conditions. The percentage in the Gaza Strip stands at 27% and in the West Bank at 26%. Three months ago, 20% of West Bankers expressed a desire to emigrate and 37% of Gazans expressed the same desire.
• Perception of corruption in PA institutions stands at 86%. When asked about institutions controlled by Hamas in the Gaza Strip, 71% indicated that there is corruption in these institutions. Three months ago, 84% said there is corruption in PA institutions and 69% said there is corruption in public institutions controlled by Hamas.
• 42% of West Bankers think people in the West Bank can criticize the PA without fear while 54% think they cannot. In the Gaza Strip, 38% think people in the Strip can criticize Hamas’ authorities without fear and 62% think they cannot.
• In its assessment of the PA, a majority of the Palestinians (59%) views it as a burden on the Palestinian people while 36% view it as an asset for the Palestinian people. Three months ago, 55% viewed the PA as a burden and 39% viewed it as an asset.
• 26% are optimistic and 70% are pessimistic about the success of reconciliation. Three months ago, optimism stood at 28%.
• After more than three years since the formation of the Shtayyeh government, findings indicate persistent pessimism. Responding to a question about expectations regarding the ability of the Shtayyeh government to make progress in reconciliation and reunification, 73% expect failure; only 21% expect success. When asked about the ability of the government to organize legislative or legislative and presidential elections in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, 23% of the public expect success and 69% expect failure. In another question about the ability of the new government to improve economic conditions, a majority of 75% expects failure and 19% expects success.
• The majority is satisfied with the performance of the various actors involved in the management of the Coronavirus crisis: 63% express satisfaction with the performance of the security services deployed in their areas and 63% are satisfied with the performance of the ministry of health. However, satisfaction with the performance of the prime minister in the management of the coronavirus crisis stands at 41%. Three months ago, satisfaction with the prime minister’s performance in the coronavirus crisis stood at 46%.
• We asked the public about its viewership habits in the last three months. Findings indicate that al Jazeera TV has the highest viewership, standing at 36%, followed by al Aqsa TV and Palestine TV (11% each), Palestine TV (10%), Maan (6%), al Arabiya (3%), al Mayadeen (2%), and al Manar (1%). 

(3) Palestinian-Israeli Relations and the Peace process:

• Support for the concept of the two-state solution stands at 28% and opposition stands at 69%. No description or details were provided for the concept. Three months ago, support for the concept stood at 40%.  
• Reflecting on the latest UN speech of president Abbas in which he described the situation on the ground in the West Bank as “apartheid” and that the Palestinian people will demand equal rights in one state for two peoples, only 22% say that they are in favor of such one state solution while 75% expressed opposition. Three months ago, support for Abbas’ position on the one-state solution stood at 32%.
• When asked about support for specific policy choices to break the current deadlock, 56% supported joining more international organizations; 48% supported resort to non-violent resistance; 55% supported return to armed confrontations and intifada; 47% supported dissolving the PA; and 23% supported abandoning the two-state solution and embracing a one state solution for Palestinians and Israelis. Three months ago, 51% supported a return to armed confrontations and intifada; 49% supported dissolving the PA; and 32% supported abandoning the two-state solution in favor of a one-state solution.
• A majority of 59% says that the armed attack inside Israel carried out by Palestinians unaffiliated with known armed groups contributes to the national interest of ending the occupation; 37% believe the armed attacks do not contribute to the national interest. Gazans are more likely to view such attacks positively compared to the West Bankers, 77% and 46% respectively. Worth noting also that 47% of West Bankers believe the armed attacks do not contribute to the national interest.
• Similarly, a majority of 56% (73% in the Gaza Strip and 44% in the West Bank) supports armed attacks similar to those carried out lately by unaffiliated Palestinians against Israelis inside Israel; 39% (26% in the Gaza Strip and 48% in the West Bank) say they are opposed to such armed attacks.
• A majority of 56% expects the acts of armed resistance in the Jenin refugee camp to spread to other parts of the West Bank. However, a large minority of 41% expects the acts of armed resistance to remain restricted to the Jenin camp.
• We asked the public about its views regarding Palestinian-Israeli confidence building measures that would improve living conditions in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, such as approval of family unification permits or making available to the PA additional financial resources. A majority of 65% said it looks positively, while 30% said it looks negatively, at such measures. Three months ago, 63% of the public said it viewed these measures positively.
• A majority of 70% believes that the two-state solution is no longer practical or feasible due to the expansion of Israeli settlements while 27% believe that the solution remains practical. Moreover, 77% believe that the chances for the creation of a Palestinian state alongside the state of Israel in the next five years are slim or nonexistence while 19% believe the chances to be medium or high. Three months ago, only 60% said the two-state solution was no longer feasible or practical due to settlement expansion.
• When asked about the most effective means of ending the Israeli occupation and building an independent state, the public split into three groups: 50% chose armed struggle (62% in the Gaza Strip and 43% in the West Bank), 22% negotiations, and 21% popular resistance. Three months ago, 44% chose armed struggle and 25% chose negotiations.
• Under current conditions, a majority of 69% opposes and 22% support an unconditional resumption of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations.
• 65% are opposed, and 29% are supportive, of a return to dialogue with the new US administration under president Joe Biden.  
• The vast majority (78%) believes the Qur'an contains a prophecy on the demise of the State of Israel, while 17% say it does not.  However, the majority (63%) does not believe the assessment, stated by few Qur'anic scholars, that verses in the Qur'an predict the exact year of the demise of Israel and that it is the year 2022; 25% say they believe it.
• When asked why they think Hamas did not launch rockets against Israel on the day of the Flag March throughout East Jerusalem, the largest percentage (35%) said that the movement did not want to be dragged into a battle it was not prepared for; one third said that Hamas was willing to comply with the advice and mediation of Arab and international actors. Only 13% said it was afraid of the Israeli reaction against it and the Gaza Strip. One tenth (11%) said that Hamas did not threaten to launch rockets against Israel if he Flag March took place in the Old City of East Jerusalem.
• The largest percentage (40%) believes that Hamas’ unwillingness to launch rockets against Israel during the Flag March will encourage Israeli to take more measures against Jerusalem and al Aqsa Mosque. By contrast, 26% said that Hamas’ decision will deter Israel in the future, and 28% said it will neither encourage nor deter Israel.
• A consensus is emerging regarding the killing of the al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh: 92% believe Israel has deliberately sought to kill her while only 5% think the killing by the Israeli army was accidental.
• A majority of 61% believes that the reasons the Israeli police attacked the funeral procession of Abu Akleh in Jerusalem had to do with the fac that the funeral demonstrated the unity of the Palestinians, Muslims and Christians alike. On the other hand, one third thinks that the police attack was prompted by the raising of the Palestinian flag during the funeral.
• When asked why Israel insists on preventing the raising of the Palestinian flag in Jerusalem and other occupied territories and in areas inside Israel, the public was split evenly, 49% said the reason has to do with Israeli rejection of the Palestinian national identity while an identical percentage said it has to do with Israeli fear of the Palestinian national identity.
• A majority of 53% (56% in the West Bank and 48% in the Gaza Strip) says that despite the repeated incidents of attacks by the Israeli police against Palestinian worshipers at al Aqsa Mosque, the conflict remains first and foremost over land and sovereignty while 45% say the conflict has now become first and foremost a religious one.
• We asked the public about the expectations that the US aid to the PA will soon resume and asked if they welcome or do not welcome aid resumption. The public is evenly split on US aid: 48% welcome it and 49% do not. It is worth noting that Gazans are more likely to welcome US aid, by 59%, while the percentage drops to 40% in the West Bank.

(4) The war between Russia and Ukraine:

• The largest percentage of the public (42%) blames Russia for starting the war with Ukraine while 35% blame Ukraine.
• An overwhelming majority (75%) wants the PA to stay neutral in the conflict in the Ukraine while 14% believe the PA should stand with Russia and 6% think it should stand with Ukraine.
• A majority of 43% says it is worried that the Russian-Ukraine war might expand to include other counties; 53% are not worried. Three months ago, the percentage of those expressing worry that the war would expand stood at 54%.

(5) Most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems confronting Palestinians today:

• 45% believe that the first most vital Palestinian goal should be to end Israeli occupation in the areas occupied in 1967 and build a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital. By contrast, 32% believe the first most vital goal should be to obtain the right of return of refugees to their 1948 towns and villages, 12% believe that the first and most vital goal should be to build a pious or moral individual and a religious society, one that applies all Islamic teachings and 9% believes it should be to establish a democratic political system that respects freedoms and rights of Palestinians.
• In a question about the main problem confronting the Palestinians today, the largest percentage, 26% (29% in the Gaz Strip and 23% in the West Bank), said it is unemployment and poverty; 25% (13% in the Gaza Strip and 32% in the West Bank) said it is corruption in the PA; 17% (24% in the Gaza Strip and 12% in the West Bank) said it is the continued siege and blockade of the Gaza Strip; 16% said it is the continuation of the occupation and settlement construction; 13% (17% in the Gaza Strip and 11% in the West Bank) said it is the split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip; and 4%  said it is the weakness of the judiciary and the absence of liberties, accountability and democracy.  
• When asked about the most pressing problem confronting the Palestinians today, the largest percentage (32%) said it is the Israeli occupation, while 23% said it is corruption, 17% said it is unemployment, 16% said it is the split or division, and 8% said it is the internal violence.

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 7-10 December 2017. The poll was conducted one day after the announcement by President Trump that he is recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and during a period in which limited clashes occurred between Palestinian protesters and Israeli soldiers throughout the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. By then, the Palestinian Authority has already publicly condemned the US measure and announced cessation of peace-related contacts with Washington. On the domestic front, reconciliation efforts continued to produce slow progress and a meeting held in Cairo declared that elections will take place before the end of 2018. This press release addresses these issues and covers other matters such as general conditions in the Palestinian territories and certain aspects of the peace process. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel. 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

Main Findings:

Findings of the last quarter of 2017 show that the overwhelming majority of the Palestinians view the decision by US President Donald Trump as a threat to Palestinian interests, one that requires an appropriate response. But the public is divided on what would be considered appropriate. While the largest percentage favors ending contacts with the US, submitting a formal complaint to the International Criminal Court, and a resumption of an armed intifada, the majority continues to favor responses that exclude armed struggle, despite the rise in support for such struggle during the past three months. Furthermore, it seems obvious that the public does not think that its leadership shares its view on what is considered to be an appropriate response to the American step.

In light of the US step, findings show an almost total public distrust of the role of regional powers, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan and Qatar, in the peace efforts organized by the US Administration. More than three quarters believe that Palestine is no longer the Arab’s first cause. Indeed, more than70% believe that despite the continuation of Israeli occupation, an alliance already exists between Sunni Arab states and Israel.

On top of that there is little or no confidence in the US Administration and its peace intentions. An overwhelming majority believes that any Trump peace plan will not meet the basic Palestinian need to end occupation and build an independent state. But here too one can see the gap between the position of the public and the public assessment of the position of the Palestinian leadership. Despite public confidence that the Trump ideas cannot serve as a basis for negotiations, about half of the public believes that President Abbas might accept the American ideas. Furthermore, more than 70% of the public believe that major Arab countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt will also accept the Trump ideas.

Findings show that the public fully supports the assumption of security control by the reconciliation government in the Gaza Strip. In return, the public demands that the reconciliation government pay the salaries of the civil and security sectors which worked in the past under Hamas’ government. The public is also firmly opposed to the disarmament of the various armed groups in the Gaza Strip. Moreover, a majority demands the resignation of the reconciliation government if it does not lift the sanctions imposed by the PA over the Strip. If a national unity government is established, about half of the public rejects the idea that such a government should follow the peace program of President Abbas; only a minority wants the unity government to embrace Abbas’ peace program.

Finally, findings show how the US step has harmed Abbas’ popularity with further decline in his standing and increased demand for his resignation. Demand for Abbas resignation stands today at 70%, a first since such demand became high three years ago. If new presidential elections, in which Abbas competes against Hamas’ Ismail Haniyeh, are held today, the latter could easily win. Even if the candidate against Abbas came from the small third parties (such as Mustafa Barghouti from al Mubadara), findings show that it is doubtful that Abbas could win. On the other hand, the party balance remains relatively stable, compared to the findings three months ago, with Fatah having an edge against Hamas. Hamas is more popular than Fatah in the Gaza Strip while Fatah is more popular than Hamas in the West Bank.

(1) Presidential and parliamentary elections:

• 70% want president Abbas to resign; level of satisfaction with Abbas’ performance stands at only 31%
• In a presidential election between Ismail Haniyeh and Mahmoud Abbas, the former receives 53% of the vote and the latter 41%
• In a presidential election between Mustafa Barghouti and Mahmoud Abbas, each receives 45% of the vote
• In a presidential election between Ismail Haniyeh and Marwan Barghouti, the former receives 37% and the latter 58%
• In a parliamentary election, Fatah receives 36% of the vote, Hamas 30%, and third parties combined 6%

70% of the public want president Abbas to resign while 26% want him to remain in office. Three months ago, 67% said they want Abbas to resign. Demand for Abbas’ resignation stands at 64% in the West Bank and 80% in the Gaza Strip. Three months ago demand for Abbas resignation stood at 60% in the West Bank and 80% in the Gaza Strip.  If president Abbas does not nominate himself in a new election, 35% prefer to see Marwan Barghouti replacing him, while 22% prefer Ismail Haniyeh; Mohammad Dahlan 7% (1% in the West Bank and 15% in the Gaza Strip); Mustapha Barghouti (5%); Rami al Hamdallah (5%), Khalid Mishal (3%), and Salam Fayyad (2%).

Level of satisfaction with the performance of president Abbas stands at 31% and dissatisfaction at 66%. Level of satisfaction with Abbas stands at 36% in the West Bank and 22% in the Gaza Strip. Three months ago, satisfaction with Abbas stood at 31% (38% in the West Bank and 21% in the Gaza Strip).  If new presidential elections were held today and only two were nominated, Ismail Haniyeh and Mahmoud Abbas, the former would receive 53% and the latter 41% of the vote (compared to 50% for Haniyeh and 42% for Abbas three months ago). In the Gaza Strip, Abbas receives 33% of the vote (compared to 36% three months ago) and Haniyeh receives 66% (compared to 62% three months ago). In the West Bank Abbas receives 47% (compared to 45% three months ago) and Haniyeh 43% (compared to 42% three months ago). If the competition was between President Abbas from Fatah and Mustafa Barghouti from al Mubadara (Initiative), the two receive an identical percentage of 45%. Mustafa Barghouti receives 57% of the vote in the Gaza Strip and 36% in the West Bank and Abbas receies 39% of the vote in the Gaza Strip and 50% in the West Bank. Vote for Mustafa Barghouti is higher in the cities (48%) compared to villages and refugee camps (33% and 44% respectively), among the religious (50%) compared to the unreligious (36%), among supporters of Hamas and third parties (87% and 80% respectively) compared to Fatah supporters (16%), among those whose age is between 18-22 years (55%) compared to those whose age is over 50 years (38%), among refugees (56%) compared to none-refugees (34%), among holders of BA degree (49%) compared to illiterates (2%), among students, merchants, and retirees (66%, 55%, and 54% respectively) compared to the unemployed, employees, and housewives (34%, 40%, and 43% respectively), and among those who work in the private sector (46%) compared to those who work in the public sector (35%).

If presidential elections were between three: Mahmud Abbas, Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, Abbas would receive 18%, Barghouti 41% and Haniyeh 36%.  If presidential elections were between two: Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, Barghouti receives 58% and Haniyeh 37%. If presidential elections are held soon, 42% want Hamas to nominate one of its leader while 45% prefer to see Hamas supporting a third party or an independent candidate.

If new legislative elections were held today with the participation of all factions, 66% say they would participate in such elections. Of those who would participate, 30% say they would vote for Hamas and 36% say they would vote for Fatah, 6% would vote for all other third parties combined, and 27% are undecided. Three months ago, vote for Hamas stood at 29% and Fatah at 36%. Vote for Hamas in the Gaza Strip stands today at 36% (compared to 31% three months ago) and for Fatah at 30% (compared to 28% three months ago). In the West Bank, vote for Hamas stands at 26% (compared to 28% three months ago) and Fatah at 41% (compared to 42% three months ago).

(2) Domestic conditions:

• Only 34% believe that people in the West Bank can criticize the PA without fear
• Perception of personal safety and security stands at 53% in the Gaza Strip and 45% in the West Bank
• 41% of Gazans and 22% of West Bankers seek to immigrate to other countries
• Belief that corruption exists in PA institutions stands at 77%

Only 34% of the Palestinian public say people in the West Bank can criticize the PA without fear; 61% of the public say that people cannot criticize the PA without fear.  Positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip stands at 5% and positive evaluation of conditions in the West Bank stands at 12%.  Perception of safety and security in the Gaza Strip stands at 53%. In the West Bank perception of safety and security stands at 45%. Three months ago, perception of safety and security in the Gaza Strip stood at 49% and in the West Bank at 50%.  Findings show that the percentage of Gazans who say they seek to immigrate to other countries stands at 41%; in the West Bank, the percentage stands at 22%. Three months ago, 43% of Gazans and 22% of West Bankers indicated that they seek to immigrate. Perception of corruption in PA institutions stands at 77%.

We asked the public about its viewership habits in the last two months. Findings indicate that Al Jazeera TV viewership remains the highest, standing at 20%, followed by Maan TV (15%), al Aqsa TV (14%), Filasteen al Youm/Palestine Today (14%), Palestine TV (11%), Al Arabiya (6%) al Quds TV (6%), and al Mayadeen (3%).  

(3) Reconciliation and the reconciliation government:  

• 81% want the reconciliation government to pay the salaries of the civil and security sectors’ employees who served the pervious Hamas government in the Gaza Strip
• 78% want the police department in the Gaza Strip to come under the full control of the reconciliation government
• 38% are satisfied and 55% are dissatisfied with the performance of the reconciliation government
• Optimism about the future of reconciliation increases from 31% to 50%
• 78% support the formation of a national unity government but only 43% want such a government to abide by the policies of president Abbas
• 72% want to keep factions’ armed wings in the Gaza Strip in place
• 51% want the resignation of the reconciliation government if it does not remove the PA-imposed sanctions on the Gaza Strip 

81% want the reconciliation government to pay the salaries of the civil employees of the former Hamas government but 14% do not want it to do so.  Similarly, 81% of the public want the reconciliation government to pay the salaries of the security sector employees of the former Hamas government and 14% do not want it to do so.  78% support placing the police department in the Gaza Strip, which is currently under the control of Hamas, to come under the control of the reconciliation government so that the police departments in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip would come under the one command and control center; 19% are opposed to that and prefer to maintain the current status quo.

Now that it has taken control of the border crossings and the headquarters of the ministries and other public agencies, 38% are satisfied and 55% are dissatisfied with the performance of the reconciliation government. Satisfaction is higher in the West Bank (41%) compared to the Gaza Strip (33%), in villages and towns (45%) compared to refugee camps and cities (34% and 37% respectively), among women (37%) compared to men (32%), among the unreligious (45%) compared to the religious and the somewhat religious (37% each), among Fatah supporters (61%) compared to supporters of Hamas and third parties (25% and 33% respectively), among the non-refugees (41%) compared to the refugees (35%), among the illiterates (43%) compared to those who hold a BA degree (31%), among the retirees (50%) compared to the farmers, merchants, and students (19%, 27% and 35% respectively), and among those who work in the public sector (41%) compared to those who work in the private sector (35%).

50% are optimistic and 45% are pessimistic about the success of reconciliation. Three months ago, optimism stood at 31% and pessimism at 61%.  Despite the rise in optimism, only 43% expect the reconciliation government to take real control of the security conditions in the Gaza Strip; 47% do not expect that to happen.   In this context, 45% of the public believe that the latest factional meeting in Cairo has been neither a success nor a failure while 19% view it as a success and 27% as a failure.

78% support the formation of a national unity government composed of Fatah, Hamas, and other faction while only 17% prefer to keep the current reconciliation government.  If a national unity government is established, the public is divided over its peace program: 43% want it to adhere to Abbas policy but 49% does not want to do so. Support for the adherence to Abbas policy is higher in the West Bank (48%) compared to the Gaza Strip (35%), in villages and towns (48%) compared to refugee camps and cities (40% and 42% respectively), among women (45%) compared to men (41%), among the unreligious and the somewhat religious (50% and 47% respectively) compared to the religious (38%), among Fatah supporters (76%) compared to supporters of Hamas and third parties (19% and 38% respectively), among those whose age is over 50 years (44%) compared to those whose age is between 18-22 (34%), among none-refugees (48%) compared to refugees (38%), among the illiterates (58%) compared to those how hold a BA degree (35%), among housewives and employees (46% and 44% respectively) compared to students and merchants (29% and 37% respectively), and among those who work in the public sector (48%) compared to those who work in the private sector (40%).

Responding to Abbas’ call for “one government, one gun,” 72% want the armed groups that belong to the various factions in the Gaza Strip to remain in place and only 22% support disbanding them. Support for keeping the armed wings is higher among the religious (79%) compared to the unreligious and the somewhat religious (52% and 67% respectively), among supporters of Hamas and third parties (88% and 78%) compared to Fatah supporters (49%), among holders of BA degree (69%) compared to the illiterates (59%), and among those who work in the private sector (73%) compared to those who work in the public sector (61%).

Only 43% believe that the date set for elections in the latest factional meeting in Cairo is appropriate while 33% think it is late and 16% think it is too early.  70% support holding legislative and presidential elections but only after resolving all remaining issues such as control over security, PLO, and the armed factions; 26% support holding elections immediately, without resolving these other issues.

The largest percentage (45%) believes that the reason behind Abbas’ decision not to remove the sanctions he had imposed on the Gaza Strip is to pressure Hamas to make more concessions that would remove the obstacles to reconciliation. On the other hand, 22% believe that he has not removed the sanctions in order to insure a slow process of reconciliation and 23% think he seeks to bring about the collapse of the process of reconciliation.  51% support and 38% oppose the resignation of the reconciliation government led by Rami al Hamdallah if it does not immediately remove the Abbas-imposed sanctions on the Gaza Strip.  Demand for the resignation of the Hamdallah government is higher in the Gaza Strip (59%) compared to the West Bank (47%), in refugee camps (60%) compared to villages and towns (44%), among men (53%) compared to women (50%), among the religious (56%) compared to the unreligious and the somewhat religious (49% and 48% respectively), among supporters of Hamas and third parties (73% and 61% respectively) compared to Fatah supporters (30%), among refugees (55%) compared to non-refugees (48%), among holders of BA degree (55%) compared to illiterates (45%), and among those who work in the private sector (51%) compared to those who work in the public sector (46%).

For the next three months, the top priority of the reconciliation government in the eyes of 42% of the public should be the delivery of electricity and water to Gazans on daily basis while 30% believe it should be the opening of the crossings, 10% think it should be the resolution of the problem of the payment to the employees of the former Hamas government, 9% believe it should be the holding of elections, 6% the imposition of control over security matters in the Gaza Strip, and 2% the convening of the existing Palestinian Legislative Council. For the next year, the top priority of the reconciliation government in the eyes of 41% of the public should be the opening of the crossings; delivery of electricity and water to Gazans on daily basis (31%), while 11% think it should be the holding of elections, 7% think it should be the resolution of the problem of the payment to the employees of the former Hamas government, 7% believe it should be the imposition of control over security matters in the Gaza Strip, and 3% the convening of the existing Palestinian Legislative Council. 51% believe that the reconciliation effort is not linked to the restoration of negotiations and the peace process while 43% think that it is indeed linked.

24% think Fatah and Abbas came out of reconciliation winners and 20% think Hamas came out a winner. But 48% believe that Fatah and Hamas have come out neither winners no losers.  With regard to regional players, the largest percentage (51%) believes that Egypt came out of reconciliation a winner while only 34% described Saudi Arabia as a winner (and 25% as a loser), 33% said Qatar came out a winner (and 26% as a loser), and 27% said Iran came out a winner (and 26% as a loser). Although 33% characterized Israel as a winner, 46% characterized it as a loser.

(4) The peace process:  

• 91% say the US policy of recognizing Jerusalem as a capital of Israel constitutes a threat to Palestinian interests
• In response to US announcement, 45% want a PA policy that stops all contacts with the US Administration, submit an official complaint to the ICC, and seek a return to an armed intifada
• Findings show an increase in the belief that armed action is the most effective means for establishing a Palestinian state from 35% to 44% and a decrease in the belief that negotiations is the most effective means from 33% to 27%
• 72% believe that the Trump Administration will not propose a Palestinian-Israeli peace plan and if one is indeed proposed by the US, 86% believe it will not meet Palestinian needs for ending occupation and building a state
• But 49% believe that president Abbas might accept such a US plan and 72% believe that Arab countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia might also accept it
• Confidence in the role and position of major Arab counties in the peace process is slim with three quarters believing that Palestine is no longer the Arabs’ first cause

91% characterize Trumps declaration recognizing Jerusalem as a capital of Israel as a threat to Palestinian interests (79% as a great threat and 12% as a limited threat) while only 7% saw no threat in the declaration. The largest percentage (45%) believes that the most appropriate Palestinian measure against the US step is to stop all contacts with the American Administration, submit a formal complaint to the International Criminal Court (ICC), and resort to an armed intifada. But 27% think it should stop the contacts and submit a complaint to the ICC, but should resort to non-violent resistance. Still, 12% want the PA to only denounce the US step and stop the contacts with the US Administration and an identical percentage wants it to denounce the step while maintaining contacts with the US toward reaching a permanent peace.  Support for stopping contacts, submitting a complaint to the ICC and resorting to an armed intifada is higher in the West Bank (48%) compared to the Gaza Strip (40%), among men (48%) compared to women (43%), among the religious (47%) compared to the unreligious (34%), among supporters of Hamas and third parties (58% and 50% respectively) compared to supporters of Fatah (36%), among holders of BA degree (45%) compared to the illiterates (37%), and among farmers and students (85% and 51% respectively) compared to housewives and merchants (41% and 42%). However, only 27% of the public believe that the Palestinian leadership will actually stop contacts with the US, submit an ICC complaint, and resort to an armed intifada while 24% believe the PA will denounce the US step but will maintain contacts with the Trump Administration.

The largest percentage (44%) believes that armed resistance is the most effective means of establishing a Palestinian state next to the state of Israel while 27% think negotiation is the most effective means and 23% think non-violent resistance is the most effective. Three months ago, only 35% indicated that armed resistance is the answer and 33% sided with negotiation.  Support for armed action is higher in the Gaza Strip (47%) compared to the West Bank (42%), in cities (45%) compared to villages and towns (37%), among men (47%) compared to women (40%), among the religious (49%) compared to the unreligious and the somewhat religious (32% and 40% respectively), among supporters of Hamas (67%) compared to supporters of Fatah and third parties (20% and 38%), among refugees (47%) compared to non-refugees (41%), among the illiterates (48%) compared to holders of BA degree (44%), and among farmers, merchants, and students (72%, 52%, and 46% respectively) compared to housewives and professionals (40% and 42% respectively).

An overwhelming majority of 72% believes that the Trump Administration will not submit any ideas or plans for Palestinian-Israeli peace while 24% think it will do so.  But even if the US does submit a peace proposal, an even larger majority of 86% believes that such a proposal will not meet Palestinian need to end occupation and build a state; only 11% think the proposal will indeed meet such needs.  Nonetheless, 49% believe that president Abbas might accept the American peace plan if one is indeed submitted to him while 42% believe he will not accept it.  Belief that Abbas might accept the US proposals is higher in the Gaza Strip (62%) compared to the West Bank (41%), in refugee camps and cities (55% and 51% respectively) compared to villages and towns (39%), among supporters of Hamas and third parties (65% and 53% respectively) compared to supporters of Fatah (43%), among those whose age is between 18-22 years (50%) compared to those whose age is over 40 years (47%), among refugees (53%) compared to non-refugees (45%), among holders of BA degree (54%) compared to illiterates (45%), among farmers, professionals, and students (63%, 56%, and 53% respectively) compared to retirees, laborers, and housewives (40%, 45%, and 47% respectively), and among those who work in the private sector (49%) compared to those who work in the public sector (46%).   When asked about the Israeli side, 65% said that they think the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will accept such American peace plan; only 26% think he will not accept it.  Moreover, 72% of the public believe that major Arab countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia (or at least one of them) will accept this American plan if submitted; only 20% think they will not accept it.

Regarding public trust in the roles and positions of major Arab countries in the peace process and the US efforts to develop a regional agreement in the context of Palestinian-Israeli peace, an overwhelming majority of 82% says that it does not trust the Saudi role, 75% do not trust the Emirati role, 70% do not trust the Egyptian role, and 59% do not trust the Jordanian or the Qatari roles. Moreover, 76% say the Arab World is too preoccupied with its own concerns, internal conflicts, and the conflict with Iran and that Palestine is no longer the Arab’s principal or primary issue or cause. Only 23% think Palestine remains the Arab’s principle cause. In fact, 71% believe that there is already an Arab Sunni alliance with Israel against Iran despite the continued Israeli occupation of Arab land while 21% believe that the Arabs would not ally themselves with Israel until it ends its occupation and allows the creation of a Palestinian state. Three months ago, only 64% said that an Arab Sunni alliance already exists with Israel.

(5) Most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems confronting Palestinians today:

• 48% say that the first most vital Palestinian goal should be the ending of occupation and the building of the Palestinian state
• The most serious problem facing Palestinian society today is the continuation of occupation and settlement construction

48% believe that the first most vital Palestinian goal should be to end Israeli occupation in the areas occupied in 1967 and build a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital. By contrast, 28% believe the first most vital goal should be to obtain the right of return of refugees to their 1948 towns and villages, 14% believe that it should be to build a pious or moral individual and a religious society, one that applies all Islamic teachings, and 9% believe that the first and most vital goal should be to establish a democratic political system that respects freedoms and rights of Palestinians. The most serious problem confronting Palestinian society today in the eyes of 29% of the public is the continuation of occupation and settlement activities while 26% say it is poverty and unemployment; 20% say it is the spread of corruption in public institutions; 17% say it is the siege of the Gaza Strip and the closure of its crossings; and 4% say it is the absence of national unity.

In the aftermath of the Gaza War: Hamas’ way is preferred by the majority over Abbas’ way as the most effective in ending occupation and building a Palestinian state and Haniyeh defeats Abbas in a presidential election 
13-15 December 2012 
These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 13-15 December 2012. Two major developments preceded the conduct of the poll: (1) the Gaza war between Hamas and Israel followed by a ceasefire, a visit by Khalid Mish’al to the Gaza Strip, and Hamas’ celebration of victory in the war on the occasion of the movement’s launch, (2) the submission of a Palestinian request for the upgrading of the status of Palestine to a non-member state at the UN, the vote at the General Assembly on the request with 138 countries voting in favor, and the return of president Mahmoud Abbas to the West Bank amid public celebrations in support of his UN bid. This press release covers public evaluation of the general West Bank and Gaza conditions, elections, reconciliation, public evaluation of the performance of the governments of Salam Fayyad and Ismail Haniyeh, the internal balance of power between Fateh and Hamas, views of the public on the most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems Palestinians confront today, the Gaza war, the UN vote, and others. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%. 

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

Main Findings:

The events of the past several weeks have given Hamas a significant boost similar to the one it enjoyed in the aftermath of the breaching of the Rafah border with Egypt in early 2008. The fourth quarter of 2012 shows a dramatic change in public attitude favoring Hamas. Haniyeh’s popularity increases significantly allowing him to defeat Abbas if new presidential elections are held today. A parliamentary election, if held today, would give Hamas and Fateh an almost equal number of votes. Moreover, positive public evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip increases dramatically and the gap in public perception of conditions in the West Bank compared to conditions in the Gaza Strip widens in favor of the latter; this gap was first registered in our previous poll last September. Needless to say, the outcome of the latest Gaza war between Hamas and Israel is responsible for this change.

Findings are also somewhat positive for Abbas. Evaluation of conditions in the West Bank is more positive today than it was three months ago. Similarly, positive evaluation of Abbas’ performance increases in this poll. These results might have been generated by the outcome of the diplomatic warfare at the UN between the PA and Israel. The cessation of demonstrations and internal confrontations that erupted in the West Bank more than three months ago in protest against price rises and the deteriorating economic conditions might have also contributed to the general public perception of improvement in the general conditions in the West Bank. Finally, findings show a dramatic increase in the level of optimism regarding the chances for reconciliation and the reunification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip compared to the situation not only three months ago but most importantly since the separation in June 2007.

But most significantly the poll shows that Hamas’s way, as represented by the Gaza war and its outcome, receives the support and confidence of the majority of the public while Abbas’ way, represented by the UN bid and the international recognition of the Palestinian state, receives the support and confidence of a little over one quarter. In this regard, it is worth mentioning that the overwhelming majority of Palestinians believe that Hamas has come out victorious in its war with Israel. A majority also believe that conditions in the Gaza Strip will now improve while a majority believes that conditions in the West Bank will now become worse or stay as it was before the UN vote.Full Report 

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*This survey was conducted with the support of  Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ramallah.